Like nature's water cycle, projecting and meeting Texas' water needs is an endless process. The state's 16 regional water supply planning groups, now in their second round of supply and demand analysis, face a June 2003 deadline for projecting their area's demand for water through 2055.
The Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) has provided draft population and water demand projections for the regional groups to consider. The projections for some regions such as Region L, which includes San Antonio, have changed dramatically and may affect their strategies. Planners for Region K, which includes Austin and the lower Colorado River basin, do not anticipate significant changes in the population and demand growth projections they adopted in 2001.
"This is a multi-year process, so the situation could change," said Jobaid Kabir of LCRA, the administrative agency for the Region K planning group. "For instance, we will take a thorough look at industry demand and trends. Will there be a change in the world rice market? That could affect our demand projections and strategy."
The sequel
Texas' 16 regional water supply planning groups entered a second cycle of supply and demand analysis early in 2002, just weeks after their original 50-year strategies were packaged together and approved as the state's first comprehensive water plan. The TWDB created the 16 regional groups in 1998 to carry out the "bottom up" statewide water supply planning effort required by Senate Bill 1 (SB1). After years of unsuccessful attempts to design a statewide planning process, the Texas Legislature passed SB1 in 1997 in recognition of Texas' limited water supplies, vulnerability to drought, and rapid population growth. The state's population is expected to increase from 19 million to more than 39 million people by 2050.
From 1998 through 2001, each of the 16 regional planning groups developed strategies to meet its water needs through 2050. TWDB compiled and adopted the 16 plans, in January 2002, as part of the statewide water plan, Water for Texas - 2002.
Senate Bill 2, passed by the 77th Legislature in 2001, requires the regional groups to update their plans every five years. The regional groups will refine and update their plans during the next 31/2 years for incorporation into the 2007 state water plan. The groups will use new population and water demand projections and water supply availability estimations for the years through 2055.
In this cycle, the plans will include water conservation and drought management measures. The state also will assess the availability of water pipelines and other facilities for water conveyance. Researchers consider efficiency of use, environmental impact, and infrastructure -- the accessibility of water -- as critical factors in the wise use of water resources.
The planning groups may request changes to TWDB's population and water demand projections before the June deadline. The TWDB schedule calls for final approval of demand projections in August 2003. Then the next step -- supply projections -- will begin. Region K planners do not expect to change the supply projections adopted in 2001. Nor do they anticipate significantly altering their strategy for meeting demand, although site-specific groundwater modeling may lead to additional site-specific strategies.
The Region K strategy for meeting 50- to 100-year water supply demands in the lower Colorado River region hinges on the success of the LCRA-SAWS Water Project. This long-term venture, as proposed, would involve extensive conservation measures, new off-channel water storage, increased use of groundwater for agriculture, and conveyance of Colorado River water to the San Antonio region for a limited period. In exchange, the San Antonio Water System (SAWS) would cover the expenses involved in making the additional water available.
The LCRA-SAWS Water Project has entered its second year of planning. Technical advisory groups have worked over the past year to develop the study plan, with the participation of environmental, municipal, recreational, industrial, agricultural and other interest groups. The boards of LCRA and SAWS expect to decide early this year whether to pursue the study plan, which would take at least six years to complete.
Carol Kimbrell is an LCRA writer specializing in water topics. Contact her at carol.kimbrell@lcra.org.
