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Drought conditions are likely to persist and possibly grow worse across Central Texas through the first half of 2006.
The drought, which began across most of Central Texas last spring, became very noticeable over the fall and early winter as the storm track shifted away from Texas. Interestingly, 2005 ended up as one of the top 10 driest years on record for many locations across the area. The lack of rain can be attributed in large part to a developing patch of cool water across the tropical Pacific Ocean.
This phenomenon, which appears about every three to five years, is called La Niña. La Niña causes the development of a large area of high pressure over the Southwestern and Southern United States, which in turn, keeps most storm systems from reaching the Southern United States. La Niña typically results in well below normal rainfall across most of Texas, a pattern that has been observed since last fall.
According to forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center, the current La Niña is forecast to peak in intensity this spring, then weaken this summer and fall. Although La Niña is expected to keep rainfall below normal, this doesn't mean there won't necessarily be any rain over the next few months. As we move through spring, occasional storm systems and cold fronts will make it across our area from time to time and cause some showers and thunderstorms. A few severe storms will be possible, as well. However, rain amounts are expected to remain below normal, at least into early summer.
Mixed outlook
The outlook for summer is somewhat mixed. La Niña's influence on Texas weather is weakest in summer. In addition, La Niña typically enhances tropical activity in Atlantic basin, and some of this activity could affect parts of Texas.
Looking back at some recent years with La Niña droughts, rainfall often increases in the late summer and early fall.
At this point, it's unclear if the current drought will last beyond spring and summer. Most droughts connected to La Niña last from one to two years. Some have been longer, some shorter.
It's worthwhile to note that most droughts and extended dry periods are broken with widespread heavy rain events and floods. And with this being Texas, you never know when flood will happen.
Rose is LCRA's chief meteorologist. Contact him at bob.rose@lcra.org
Related links:
Continued dry weather creates ideal conditions for wildfires; burn ban remains in effect at LCRA parks
What happens in a drought? Water management plan guides region through water supply shortages
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