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AUSTIN — A severe to extreme drought, which started in spring of 2005, continues across most of Texas, causing falling lake and aquifer levels, crop woes for farmers and a fire danger.
While rain has fallen from time to time this spring and early summer, the rain has not been enough or fallen over a wide enough area to cause a significant change in the drought.
A recent report by the Texas State Climatologist office indicates that even though the drought has only been in place a little more than a year, its intensity rivals some of the worst droughts in Texas history. From April 1, 2005, through May 31, 2006, ranks as the second driest period on record for the South-Central Texas region, with only 57 percent of normal rain. This period was second only to a very dry stretch of months occurring between 1917 and 1918. If calendar year 2004 had not been so extremely wet, this region would be seeing even greater impacts from the current drought.
The current drought can be traced in large part to the development of a weak La Niña that began in the fall 2005, lasting through early spring of this year. La Niña is a phenomenon where tropical Pacific waters between South America and the Date Line become unusually cool, disturbing the Jet Stream across the southern United States. La Niña events usually bring dry weather and drought to most of Texas. Even though La Niña ended in April, the atmosphere has not returned to a normal configuration. As a result, scattered rains have at times returned to parts of Texas, but the overall weather pattern has yet to return to normal.
Drought could intensify
I expect the drought to hang on and possibly grow worse July through August. A large ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere will remain over Texas for much of the summer, steering storms away from our area and limiting episodes of rain. At the same time, temperatures are going to be quite hot. However, changes in the weather should begin to take place during August as rains begin making a return to Texas. Similar to previous years when La Nina ended in spring, showers and thunderstorms should increase in late summer into fall as the large area of high pressure over Texas shifts north and moisture spreads inland from the Gulf of Mexico.
There is some potential the rains may at times be heavy. While more frequent rains may not totally end the drought, drought conditions across our area should begin to improve. Of course, late summer and fall is also the most active part of the hurricane season and just one storm could easily change our long-running drought to a flood in just a number of hours.
LCRA meterologist Bob Rose writes regularly on weather topics. See archive. |
