The rains in January were nice, but for most of the lower Colorado River basin, the drought’s not over.

While this was one of the wettest Januarys on record in the Austin area, most of the rains fell downstream of the Highland Lakes, offering little help to the levels of lakes Travis and Buchanan, LCRA’s water-supply reservoirs.

Long-term forecasts aren’t very encouraging. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center believes the “El Niño” wet weather pattern, which brought the January rains, will be gone by the end of March. The center predicts a trend toward drier-than-normal conditions this coming April through June, which is typically the basin’s period of greatest rainfall, and hotter-than-normal temperatures this summer.

That forecast, if true, would deepen the rainfall deficit incurred during 2005 and 2006, which for much of Texas was the lowest two-year period of rains since the mid-1960s.

Lots of rain is needed especially in the Highland Lakes region, where lakes Travis and Buchanan capture rain and runoff that falls over a 15,000-square mile area in Central and West Texas. Inflows into the lakes in 2006 were at their lowest since 1942, the first year that lakes Travis and Buchanan were both in operation. As of early February, the two lakes were a little more than half full.

Even if the region receives its annual average rainfall, LCRA expects the lakes to rise slightly in spring, then drop by the end of summer. A continuation of last year’s severe drought conditions could drop the two lakes to levels not seen since the 1960s.

So how much rain would it take to refill lakes Travis and Buchanan and end the drought? LCRA hydrologists estimate several months of regularly repeated storms, or a widespread storm of 10-12 inches. The storms need to blanket the Hill Country, rather than occur as scattered showers.

Keep up to date on drought conditions and water-related issues at these Web sites:

• Updates on drought conditions in the lower Colorado River basin
• Water-saving tips from LCRA’s Water IQ Web site
• LCRA’s plan to develop additional water resources
• LCRA’s water and drought management plans

Repeated storms over lakes Travis and Buchanan are needed to make a difference.

Windy Point boat ramp at Bob Wentz Park on Lake Travis looks more like a beach.