Most long-time Texans will tell you it doesn’t take a meteorologist to forecast Texas summer weather. It is going to be hot and generally dry with just occasional summer showers. Some summers work out that way but most come with surprise periods of rain, clouds and sometimes tropical storms out of the Gulf of Mexico.

This summer is shaping up to be one of those atypical summers. Overall, temperatures will be hot, but periods of rain will be more frequent than last year. Plus, there will be a greater than usual chance that Texas weather will be influenced by tropical storms and hurricanes from the Gulf of Mexico.

Weather conditions this summer will be influenced heavily by a moist flow of air off the Gulf of Mexico. Clouds and showers associated with this flow will produce periods of showers and thunderstorms throughout the summer. Long-range forecast solutions call for near-normal to slightly above-normal rainfall June through August due to occasional periods of rain and storms. Despite the rain, temperatures will be hot, with readings averaging slightly above normal. I do expect we’ll see more than 10 days with temperatures above 100 degrees.

It’s shaping up to be a busy year in the tropical Atlantic, with early forecasts pointing toward a well-above normal number of storms. The combination of favorable winds across the tropical Atlantic, unusually warm sea-surface temperatures and a developing La Nina phenomenon in the Pacific will cause the development of numerous storms from the Gulf of Mexico through the Caribbean. There is a higher-than-normal chance that storms will make landfall along the Gulf Coast, from Texas to Florida. Even a weak tropical depression or tropical storm could produce widespread flooding if it moves inland and tracks across Central Texas.

Yes, this summer will be hot ─ again. But hold on for some surprises.

Bob Rose, LCRA meterologist