The weather across Texas so far this year could be characterized as anything but normal. Heavy rains this spring broke the 2-year-long drought, and unusually heavy, flooding rains continued into the summer. It has rained so much across our region so far this year that 2007 already ranks as one of the wetter years on record.

The wet weather may not be over with quite yet. Frequent rains are expected to continue in September and October. But beyond autumn, there are growing signs that a much drier weather pattern will prevail this winter into next spring.

Over the next several months, developments in both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans will have a strong influence on Texas weather. And this year, there’s a higher than normal chance tropical systems will strike the Texas coast. Increased tropical activity combined with a persistent moist flow off the Gulf of Mexico should cause frequent periods of rain and storms. Some of this rain could at times be heavy. In the Pacific, steadily cooling waters in the equatorial region will likely produce a La Niña phenomenon beginning this fall and continuing through winter. Historically, weak to moderate La Niñas typically cause drier than normal weather across Texas during the late fall and winter months. This coming winter looks to be no exception.

Temperatures will be warmer than normal this fall, as summer attempts to hang on well into October. Cooler weather will arrive in October, but temperatures may stay milder than normal in November through March. La Niña winters typically are milder than normal, with only a few brief periods of cold weather.

With the growing trend toward La Niña, this year’s wet pattern may be coming to an end soon and dry weather return this winter.

Bob Rose,
LCRA meterologist

Central Texans enjoyed heavy spring rains that ended the 2-year drought.