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The summer of 2008 ended up as one of the hottest summers on record for Central Texas. With so many days at or above 100 degrees, it didn’t seem like summer was ever going to end. But now that summer is over, most of us are looking forward to an end to heat and some cooler weather. Many people have asked if there’s a connection between this summer’s incredibly hot weather and the weather conditions for the following winter. The answer is not necessarily. There’s little to no correlation between a summer’s weather and conditions the following winter. The circulation in the atmosphere and in the oceans is too large and too complex for one season’s extreme weather to impact the opposite season’s weather. So to look ahead, we often look at what large-scale weather patterns will be in place, driving the weather in the coming months. For much of this year, the weather across North America has been heavily influenced by a strong La Niña weather feature in the Pacific. In this La Niña, cooler than normal water temperatures in the tropical Pacific disturbed the Jet Stream in such a way that weather conditions across Texas ended up being warmer than normal and generally drier than normal for most of the year. But La Niña faded in July, and the Pacific has more or less returned to a normal state. With a neutral pattern expected to hold through winter, weather conditions locally look to become more variable in the coming months. “Neutral” winters often feature wide swings in both the temperature and precipitation. Along with a neutral Pacific, many long-range forecasting tools are pointing toward a mild autumn and fairly cool winter here in Central Texas. Most of these tools call for cooler weather arriving fairly early, with the temperature averaging near to slightly below normal throughout this coming winter. The outlook for precipitation isn’t shaping up quite as strong; I expect near normal rainfall this fall, continuing through winter. With drought conditions still in place, near normal rainfall in the coming months may not be enough to end the lingering drought. So for folks that have been anxious for a change from the hot and dry weather of this summer, stay tuned. A more variable weather pattern appears to be coming our way. |
Bob Rose,
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