AUSTIN DAILY CLIMATE DATA (Austin-Camp Mabry Weather Observation Site)

CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR AUSTIN

RAINFALL STATISTICS AS OF MIDNIGHT (Departure From Normal in Parenthesis)

SELECTED CITIES WEATHER: (High Yesterday//Low This Morning as of 6 am//Rainfall 6 am to 6 am)

WEATHER DISCUSSION

The first two weeks of May featured a very active weather pattern across Central and South Texas. But this active pattern abruptly changed this week when the Jet Stream shifted away from Texas. Storm systems moving inland along the West Coast are now turning northeast across the Plains states instead of sinking southeast across northern Mexico and Texas. As a result, our weather has become sunny, dry and warm. In fact, it's beginning to feel a lot like early summer. Today's forecast data indicates the current dry and warm weather pattern will likely continue at least through late next week, and possibly much longer. Slightly warmer temperatures are forecast next week.

 

An afternoon visible satellite image sums up nicely the very quiet weather conditions currently in place across the south central US, northern Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico.

 

 

 

You may notice there is an enhanced area of clouds located over the western Caribbean Sea between the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba. While these clouds look somewhat suspicious, they're associated with low pressure in the upper atmosphere and not a developing low at the surface. Upper-level westerly winds are currently too strong for tropical development. Clouds and showers associated with the upper low are forecast to move northeast towards Florida, staying far away from Texas.

 

Atmospheric conditions across Central and South Texas will remain relatively dry and stable this weekend, so no rain is forecast. The sky will be mostly sunny both days with high temperatures both days near 88-90 degrees. Breezy south winds of 10-20 mph are forecast Saturday but wind speeds should relax to around 5 to 12 mph on Sunday. A weak Pacific cold front will push into the Texas Panhandle Sunday and settle just south of the Red River on Monday. There appears to be little support to drive the front any further south. A few scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of northwest Texas Sunday afternoon and Far North Texas Monday afternoon. But all of this potential activity looks to stay well north of the Hill Country and Central Texas.

 

Next week, a ridge of high pressure is forecast to grow stronger across Texas and northern Mexico. The ridge will cause continued dry, stable and warm weather. Breezy conditions look to develop Wednesday and continue through late week. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be near 88-90 degrees, rising to around 90-92 degrees Wednesday through Friday. Low temperatures next week will generally be in the upper 60s.

 

The ridge of high pressure over Texas is forecast to shift east late next week as a deep trough of low pressure develops across the western US. This pattern can be seen in the following upper-air forecast for next Saturday, May 26th, from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting:

 

 

 

Note the center of the ridge is over the Ohio Valley while the trough is centered near the West Coast. A pattern such as this typically brings very moist air inland across much of Texas. The increasing moisture should lead to a few more clouds and possibly some scattered rain showers. The European model is hinting at some possible showers for next weekend. But overall, the partly cloudy and warm weather should continue. I'll have more details on the Memorial Day weekend weather in Monday's report.

 

ANNULAR SOLAR ECLIPSE: On Sunday, May 20th, the Moon will pass in front of the Sun, producing a "ring of fire" solar eclipse visible across the Pacific side of Earth from China to the United States. Unfortunately, this "ring of fire" won't be visible across Central and South Texas. You will have to travel to West Texas, between Midland and Lubbock to see that. However, a partial solar eclipse, where the sun takes on a crescent shape, will be visible locally just before sunset. A little more than half of the sun will disappear behind the moon just before the sun sets below the horizon. The eclipse will begin around 7:30 pm CDT. Be watching between 7:30 pm and sunset. In Austin, sunset on Sunday will be at 8:21 pm. The sun will set a little earlier for areas east of Austin and a little later for areas to the west. 

 

Because this is not a total eclipse, some portion of the sun will always be exposed. To prevent eye damage, use eclipse glasses, a safely-filtered telescope, or a solar projector to observe the eclipse. You can make a handy solar projector by criss-crossing your fingers waffle-style. Rays of light beaming through the gaps will have the same shape as the eclipsed sun. Or look on the ground beneath leafy trees for crescent-shaped sunbeams and rings of light.

 

Observing tips, visibility maps, and links to live webcasts may be found at http://spaceweather.com. You can find a NASA story on the annular eclipse at the following link:   http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2012/15may_sunday/

 

The sky should be mostly clear Sunday evening across Central Texas so conditions should be nearly ideal for viewing.

 

Have a good weekend.

 

Bob

LCRA SERVICE AREA FORECAST FOR THE NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES OF:
BROWN, COMANCHE, MILLS, SAN SABA, COLEMAN, AND LAMPASAS
..Including the cities of Brownwood, Comanche, Goldthwaite, San Saba, Coleman and Lampasas..

LCRA SERVICE AREA FORECAST FOR THE HILL COUNTRY COUNTIES OF:
BLANCO, LLANO, BURNET, GILLESPIE, KENDALL, KERR, AND MASON
..Including the cities of Johnson City, Llano, Burnet, Fredericksburg, Boerne, Kerrville and Mason..

LCRA SERVICE AREA FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES OF:
BASTROP, CALDWELL, FAYETTE, HAYS, LEE, TRAVIS, AND WILLIAMSON
..Including Metro Austin, Bastrop, Lockhart, San Marcos, Giddings, and Georgetown...

OUTLOOK FOR JUNE...Above Normal Temperatures.  Equal Chances for Above, Below or Normal Precipitation.

Note:  The next seasonal outlook will be issued by the National Weather Service on Thursday, June 21, 2012.

For questions or comments concerning this forecast, contact Bob Rose, with LCRA Meteorological Services at

(512) 473-3350, or e-mail: Bob.Rose@lcra.org