A quick update on this weekend's weather. The latest forecast calls for the development of widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon, continuing overnight and into Saturday.  There is a slight risk some of the thunderstorms could become severe across the northern counties of the Hill Country and he northern counties Central Texas.  Another period of rain looks to develop Sunday as an area low pressure tracks north out of Mexico.  A partly to mostly cloudy sky will follow early next week.

 

Late this afternoon, a cold front was across northwest Texas, stretching from near Childress to near Midland and west into southern New Mexico.  Out ahead of the front, scattered thunderstorms have been developing between Wichita Falls and San Angelo.  Other rain showers and thunderstorms were occurring across the eastern third of Texas, roughly east of a line from Gonzales to Waco.   Rain showers and scattered thunderstorms look to increase in areal coverage late this afternoon and evening across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions out ahead of the cold front.  Some of the thunderstorms across the northern counties of the Hill Country and Central Texas could be strong to possibly severe although most of the strongest storms will likely occur across northern Texas.  This area of rain and storms will slowly sink southeast toward the coast late tonight and into Saturday morning.  The rain should taper off across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions by Saturday afternoon but rain showers look to continue for much of the day towards the coast.  Rainfall over the next 24 hours is forecast to average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches across much of the Hill Country.  For Central Texas and the coastal plains regions, rain totals will generally average around between 1 and 2 inches.  The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch from 8 pm this evening through noon Saturday  for areas along and to the east of Interstate 35.  This general area saw significant rain last week and the ground is still quite wet.

 

Cooler temperatures will develop behind the cold front.  Lows Saturday morning will range from the low and middle 40s across the northern Hill Country to the low 50s around Austin to the low 60s near the coast.  The high temperature Saturday will range from the mid 50s northwest to near 70 degrees towards the coast.  Lows Sunday morning will range from the upper 30s to 40 degrees northwest to the upper 40s near the coast.

 

The weather on Sunday will be cloudy, cool and damp as an overrunning pattern develops.  A trough of low pressure tracking northeast out of Mexico will cause the development of widespread clouds and scattered light rain.  The most favorable area for rain looks to develop across the coastal plains region and the southern counties of Central Texas.  Here, rain amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch will be possible.  Elsewhere, rain amounts will generally be between 0.25 and 0.5 inches.  The rain should taper off Sunday evening as the trough exits the region.  Sunday's temperature will be cool with high temperatures ranging from the upper 40s across the northern Hill Country to the middle 50s near the coast.  A light freeze will be possible across parts of the Hill Country and Central Texas Sunday night.  Lows Monday morning will include the low 30s Hill Country, low and middle 30s central and middle to upper 30s towards the coast.

 

A partly to mostly cloudy sky and cool temperatures are forecast next Monday and Tuesday.  Today's data indicates another chance for rain will develop next Wednesday and Thursday.

 

I hope everyone has a good weekend.  After a mild week, get ready for some cooler weather over the next several days.

 

Bob

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK:
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH  EARLY SATURDAY...Scattered strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are forecast as a cold front pushes across the area.  Severe weather threats will include large hail and potenitally damaging winds.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: No thunderstorms are forecast. 

 

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK:
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...Rainfall from scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will average between 0.5 and 1 inch across the Hill Country and between 1 and 2 inches at most other locations.  

 

SPECIAL LCRA OPERATIONAL STATEMENTS..Recent rains have eased the fire danger across all of the region.  However, a burn ban remains posted for McCulloch County.  A complete listing of burn bans across the state can be found at:  http://tfsfrp.tamu.edu/wildfires/DecBan.png 

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after midnight. Some of the storms could be severe and produce heavy rainfall. Low around 54. South southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 62. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.
Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 44. North wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Sunday: A 50 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 47. North wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. North wind around 10 mph.
Monday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58. North northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.
Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. Northeast wind around 5 mph.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59. East northeast wind around 5 mph.
Tuesday Night: Cloudy, with a low around 42. East northeast wind around 5 mph.
Wednesday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 61.
Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 45.
Thursday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 65.
Thursday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 45.
Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 64.

NWS 6 to 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR Feb. 09 - Feb. 13:  Below Normal Temperatures.  Above Normal Precipitation.

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