...Hot and Dry July Weather Pattern Continuing into Next Week...
It was nice while it lasted, but the two-day break from the oppressive heat is definitely over. With a mostly sunny sky, today's temperature has quickly returned to the upper 90s to low 100-degree readings at most locations. Over the past couple of days, the strong ridge of high pressure that had been over our region for most of June shifted to the Desert Southwest and the southern Rockies. But today's data indicates the ridge is now moving back to the east, being helped along by an approaching trough along the West Coast. As a result, our weather is right back in the very hot and dry pattern we were in before the break. The ridge will hang out over our area through the weekend, causing dry weather and very hot temperatures. Early next week, a weak trough of low pressure tracking south from the Plains is forecast to weaken the ridge enough to allow a cold front to slip south into North Texas. Similar to this week, the atmosphere may become unstable enough to produce a few scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms across parts of the region Monday and Tuesday. Rain amounts, if any, look to be on the low side. After Tuesday, the ridge strengthens and the hot and dry pattern resumes. There are some signs the center of the ridge will shift far enough to the north to allow some moisture to flow inland off the Gulf. If this develops, we could see a few widely scattered showers and slightly lower temperatures. But overall, I don't see a significant change in the weather pattern over the next 10-day period.
This afternoon, scattered showers and few thunderstorms were occurring across parts of the western Hill Country associated with some left over moisture. Other showers were occurring near the coast, where the Sea Breeze has pushed inland. Both areas of rain should diminish around sunset. Across the rest of the region, weather conditions were mostly sunny and hot. It sure didn't take long for the triple-digit heat to return, with several readings between 100 and 105 degrees across Central Texas. For Friday and the weekend, I expect more of the same. High temperatures each day will generally be near 98 to 100 degrees across the Hill Country, between 100 and 105 degrees across Central Texas and between 95 and 100 degrees near the coast.
A weak cold front is forecast to push into North Texas late Sunday, becoming stationary somewhere over North Central Texas or the northern counties of Central Texas Monday afternoon. With the ridge weakening and a slight increase in moisture, we will see a slight chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms both Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Rain amounts will average less than 0.25 inches. Otherwise, weather conditions will continue partly cloudy and hot with high temperatures in the upper 90s.
The chance for rain will end late Tuesday as the front weakens and high pressure re-strengthens across the region. The weather will be mostly sunny and hot next Wednesday through Friday, with high temperatures around 100 to 103 degrees. Long-range solutions indicate some slight changes in the weather will be possible late next week when the center of the ridge shifts north to the central Plains states. With a weaker ridge over our area and a stronger flow off the Gulf, we could see the development of a few widely scattered showers. At the same time, the temperature should lower a few degrees, with highs mostly in the upper 90s. Note these will be just minor changes. The weather during the middle of July is typically mostly dry and hot and I see no reason to argue with climatology as well as the forecasted weather pattern at this time.
Tropical Atlantic Update: One month into the Atlantic hurricane season and conditions remains very quiet. The latest satellite images show few organized clouds anywhere across the tropical Atlantic. And atmospheric conditions look to stay very stable over the next several days. One of the reasons for the current quiet pattern is the presence of a large layer of Saharan air across much of the tropical Atlantic. Very warm and dry air from the Saharan Desert has been transported west and resides above the marine layer at the surface. This warm air in the middle atmosphere causes a strong inversion which, limits the development of showers. Add in Saharan dust and you have a very stable atmosphere. I don't expect this situation will change anytime real soon. You can access these images at the following address: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/salmain.php?&prod=splitE&time
Friday is holiday at LCRA so unless there is some unforeseen weather change over the weekend, my next weather update will be Monday, July 6th. I hope everyone has a safe and happy holiday weekend!
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...No thunderstorms are forecast.
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...No rain is forecast.
SPECIAL LCRA OPERATIONAL STATEMENTS...None. Burn bans are currently posted for most counties across the area including Bandera, Bastrop, Bell, Blanco, Burnet, Caldwell, Colorado, Comal, Fayette, Hays, Fillespie, Guadalupe, Kendall, Kerr, Kimble, Lampasas, Lee, Llano, Matagorda, Mills, Travis, Wharton and Williamson Counties. A complete listing of burn bans can be found at: http://tfsfrp.tamu.edu/wildfires/DecBan.png
LCRA SERVICE AREA FORECAST FOR THE NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES OF: BROWN, COMANCHE, MILLS, SAN SABA, COLEMAN, AND LAMPASAS ..Including the cities of Brownwood, Comanche, Goldthwaite, San Saba, Coleman and Lampasas..
Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 71. South southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. Friday: Sunny, with a high near 98. Calm wind becoming southeast between 5 and 10 mph. Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. South southeast wind between 10 and 15 mph. Independence Day: Sunny, with a high near 98. Heat index values as high as 101. South wind between 5 and 15 mph. Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. South wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 100. South southwest wind around 10 mph. Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 78. South southeast wind around 5 mph. Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 92. Calm wind becoming east northeast around 5 mph. Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 73. East wind around 5 mph. Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 97. Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 74. Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 98. Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 76. Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 99.
NWS 6 to 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR Jul. 08- Jul. 12 Above Normal Temperatures. Below Normal Precipitation. ==============================================================================================================================
LCRA SERVICE AREA FORECAST FOR THE HILL COUNTRY COUNTIES OF: BLANCO, LLANO, BURNET, GILLESPIE, KENDALL, KERR, AND MASON ..Including the cities of Johnson City, Llano, Burnet, Fredericksburg, Boerne, Kerrville and Mason..
Tonight: Isolated showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 73. South southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 10%. Saturday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 99. South wind between 5 and 10 mph. Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. South southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph. Sunday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 98. Calm wind becoming east between 5 and 10 mph. Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. East northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Monday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 98. North wind around 5 mph becoming east. Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. East southeast wind around 5 mph becoming south southwest. Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 94. Southwest wind around 5 mph. Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. South southwest wind around 5 mph. Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 95. Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 68. Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 95. Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 93.
NWS 6 to 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR Jul. 08- Jul. 12 Above Normal Temperatures. Below Normal Precipitation. ==========================================================================================================================================================
LCRA SERVICE AREA FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES OF: BASTROP, CALDWELL, FAYETTE, HAYS, LEE, TRAVIS, AND WILLIAMSON ..Including Metro Austin, Bastrop, Lockhart, San Marcos, Giddings, and Georgetown...
Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 75. Southeast wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm. Friday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 102. Calm wind becoming south southeast between 5 and 10 mph. Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 77. South wind between 5 and 10 mph. Independence Day: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 101. Heat index values as high as 104. Calm wind becoming south southeast between 5 and 10 mph. Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 78. South wind between 5 and 10 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 101. South wind between 5 and 10 mph. Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. South wind between 10 and 15 mph. Monday: Partly sunny and hot, with a high near 98. South southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. North northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Tuesday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 101. Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. Wednesday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 100. Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. Thursday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 100.
NWS 6 to 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR Jul. 08- Jul. 12 Above Normal Temperatures. Below Normal Precipitation. ==============================================================================================================================================================
LCRA FORECAST FOR THE IRRIGATION DISTRICTS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF:
COLORADO, MATAGORDA AND WHARTON ..Including the cities of Columbus, Bay City and Wharton..
Tonight: Isolated showers and thunderstorms before 9pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. South wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 10%. Friday: Isolated showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 99. Heat index values as high as 104. Calm wind becoming south between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Friday Night: Isolated showers and thunderstorms before 9pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 77. South wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 10%. Independence Day: Isolated showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 98. Heat index values as high as 102. South wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 10%. Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 78. South wind between 10 and 15 mph. Sunday: Sunny and hot, with a high near 99. Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 78. Monday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 98. Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 78. Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny and hot, with a high near 99. Tuesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 78. Wednesday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny and hot, with a high near 99. Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. Thursday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 98.
NWS 6 to 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR Jul. 08- Jul. 12 Above Normal Temperatures. Below Normal Precipitation. ==============================================================================================================================================================
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 30 and 90-DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE LCRA SERVICE AREA :
OUTLOOK FOR JULY...Above Normal Temperautres. Equal Chance for Above, Below or Normal Precipitation.
OUTLOOK FOR JULY through SEPTEMBER...Above Normal Temperatures. Equal Chances for Above, Below or Normal Precipitation.
Note: The next seasonal outlook will be issued by the National Weather Service Thursday, July 16, 2009.
