Forecasters continue to monitor an area of disturbed weather located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Friday morning's analysis indicated this system did not become organized overnight and it now appears unlikely this system will develop into an organized tropical cyclone before moving inland tonight along the upper Texas coast. NHC forecasters are giving this system only a 10 percent chance for tropical development before moving inland. High-resolution forecast data calls for most of the moisture from the disturbance to spread northeast across southeast Texas and southern Louisiana this evening and Saturday. A modest amount of tropical moisture is forecast to spread over the middle Texas coast late tonight and Saturday and this should promote the development of scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms, mainly for areas to the south of Interstate 10. The probability for rain will be near 40-50 percent. Wind speeds along the middle Texas coast should stay fairly light. The disturbance will cause higher than normal tide levels along the middle Texas coast this evening and overnight.
A weak ridge of high pressure is in place across Central and South Texas, causing a warm and fairly stable weather pattern. However, occasional weak disturbances are tracking northeast across West and Northwest Texas, along the western edge of the upper ridge. These disturbances caused rain and thunderstorms across parts of West Texas and the Concho Valley Thursday afternoon and again early Friday morning. Some of these storms grazed parts of the northern watershed Thursday afternoon and a similar scenario is forecast this afternoon. There will be a slight chance for rain and thunderstorms this afternoon across the northern Hill Country while the remainder of the Hill Country and all of Central Texas stays generally dry. Today's temperature is forecast to reach the low to mid 90s.
A trough of low pressure embedded within the southwesterly wind flow over West Texas is forecast to track a little further to the east on Saturday. This system is expected to cause the development of scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening. However, widespread or soaking rains are not expected. The probability for rain will be 30 percent. Rain amounts are forecast to average between 0.25 and 0.5 inch. Expect a partly to mostly cloudy sky. High temperatures will again be the low to mid 90s.
Just a slight chance (20 percent) for rain showers is forecast across the region on Sunday. The sky will be partly cloudy and temperatures should warm to the low and mid 90s.
The southwesterly wind flow across West Texas is forecast to diminish Monday. Meanwhile, the ridge of high pressure over Texas is forecast to strengthen and hold in place next Monday through Friday. The ridge is expected to cause a mostly sunny and very warm weather pattern. Daily high temperatures are forecast to be in the mid 90s. The ridge is forecast to weaken some next weekend when a weak cold front sags south into Texas. The weaker ridge and cold front are expected to lower afternoon temperatures about 2-3 degrees.
Looking out longer-range, there are indications a somewhat stronger cold front will push into Texas around the middle of the following week (approximately September 27th or 28th). This front is expected to bring some slightly cooler temperatures. However, I'm not convinced yet this will be our first good cold front of autumn.Tropical Weather Update
The National Hurricane Center continues to closely monitor the progress of tropical storm Julia, located just off the southeastern coast of the US, about 240 miles southeast of Cape Fear, North Carolina. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph. A slow and erratic motion offshore of the coast of South Carolina is expected during the next couple of days.
Tropical Storm Karl developed Thursday in the far eastern Atlantic. This morning, Karl was centered about 700 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph. Karl is moving toward the west near 13 mph and this general motion is expected to continue through the weekend. 5-day forecasts call for Karl to track generally west over the central tropical Atlantic. Karl's path is forecast to bend northwest around the middle of next week, reaching a position northeast of the Lesser Antilles.
A tropical wave moving off of the coast of Africa into the far eastern Atlantic is expected to move west-northwestward for the next few days. Some development of this system is possible before conditions become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation by the middle of next week.
Weather conditions across the rest of the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico are quiet. There are no other systems in place which pose a threat for tropical development over the next 5 days.Harvest Moon
According to folklore, tonight's full Moon will be the Harvest Moon. The Harvest Moon is defined as the full moon that occurs closest to the autumnal equinox. The equinox occurs next Thursday , September 22nd at 9:21 am CDT. The Harvest Moon will very big and bright. This unusually bright moon will be visible for the next few nights as well.