After a brief cool down this past weekend, warm and humid weather conditions have returned to Central and South Texas. Monday's weather maps showed the recent cold front has lifted north to the Red River Valley, allowing warm and moist air to return north from the Gulf of Mexico. In the upper-levels of the atmosphere, the southern branch of the Polar jet stream is currently flowing from northwestern Mexico, across Central Texas and then northeast to the Middle Atlantic states. One small wave of low pressure embedded within the Jet Stream moved across the region Sunday night, causing the development of a few thunderstorms over small parts of Bastrop, Fayette, Caldwell and Gonzales counties. Most rain totals averaged around a half inch or less. No other significant totals of rain were reported. Another small wave of low pressure tracked across North Texas this morning, kicking off some scattered thunderstorms to the south and east of the DFW metroplex. All of this activity is staying well north of the Hill Country and Central Texas. This morning's analysis showed a fairly strong stable layer in the middle atmosphere in place over most of Central and South Texas, and this feature will likely limit the development of widespread rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon through Tuesday.
There will be a 20 percent chance for a few brief rain showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon through Tuesday evening, but most locations will likely stay dry. Rain amounts should average around a tenth of an inch, with a few isolated totals to near a half inch possible. Clouds will slowly decrease and the sky will become partly cloudy this afternoon. A cloudy sky is forecast overnight through Tuesday morning, with the sky becoming partly to mostly cloudy Tuesday afternoon. The high temperature this afternoon will generally be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Low temperatures Tuesday morning will range from the upper 50s across the Hill Country to the upper 60s near the coast. The high temperature Tuesday is forecast to be in the low and mid-80s. Expect a south wind at 5-10 mph this afternoon and tonight, increasing to a range of 10-15 mph Tuesday.
Forecast solutions call for a Canadian cold front to sweep south out of North Texas, pushing into the northern Hill Country late Tuesday night. The front should quickly move south across the rest of the region Wednesday morning. There will be a slight chance for a few rain showers and isolated thunderstorms along the cold front, but rain amounts should average less than a quarter of an inch. Mostly sunny, breezy and cooler conditions are forecast Wednesday afternoon behind the front. Expect a high temperature in the mid-60s along with a north wind at 10-15 mph. Clear and cool conditions will follow Wednesday night. Lows Thursday morning will include the mid and upper 30s across the Hill Country, the low 40s across Central Texas and the mid to upper 40s towards the coast.
Mostly sunny, dry and pleasant weather is forecast Thursday through Friday as a dome of Canadian high pressure settles over Texas behind the cold front. High temperatures both days will be in the mid and upper 60s. Low temperatures Friday morning will range from the upper 30s across the Hill Country to the upper 40s near the coast. Low temperatures Saturday morning will range from the low and mid-40s across the Hill Country to the mid-50s towards the coast.
A weak area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere is forecast to push east across northern Mexico this weekend, causing the weather pattern across Central and South Texas to become more unsettled. Moisture spreading north from the Gulf will cause the sky to become mostly cloudy. The approaching low is expected to cause a 30-40 percent chance for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms beginning Saturday morning, continuing through Sunday evening. This will not be an all-day type of rain; just some periods of rain showers. Weekend rain amounts are forecast to average less than a quarter inch across the Hill Country and between 0.25 and 0.5 inches at most other locations. High temperatures will be in the mid-60s Saturday and the mid-70s Sunday. Low temperatures will be in the 50s.
Looking ahead to next week, dry and warm weather is forecast Monday as the upper low exits to the east. Expect a high temperature near 80 degrees. Another Canadian cold front is forecast to push south across the region Monday night, bringing cooler air for next Tuesday through Thursday. There looks to be a chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms along the cold front, but most rain amounts should average less than a quarter inch. Sunny and dry weather will be in place Tuesday afternoon through Thursday. Daily high temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s, with low temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Warmer temperatures look to return late next week.
Have a good week.