The weather pattern will become active this week into next week as a series of low pressure troughs move east from the Desert Southwest. Each one of these systems will cause rain showers, thunderstorms and bring a potential for severe weather.
Weather conditions are currently quiet across Central and South Texas. The storm system responsible for producing areas of large hail across parts of North and North Central Texas Sunday night has exited to the northeast. A cold front associated with the storm system has moved into Texas. As of early Monday afternoon, the front stretched from Longview to Temple to Rocksprings to north of Del Rio. The air behind the cold front was considerably drier and just slightly cooler. South of the front, conditions were warm and quite humid. The front is forecast to move just past the Interstate 35 corridor this afternoon and stall. The front is then expected to push back to the north as a warm front Monday night. This afternoon's weather looks to be mostly sunny across the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor. For areas east of Interstate 35, the sky is forecast to be partly to mostly cloudy. There will be a slight chance for a few isolated rain showers and thunderstorms across the coastal plains region. Despite the cold front, today's temperature should warm to the low and mid-80s at most locations. Moisture returning off the Gulf tonight will cause the sky to become cloudy. Low temperatures Tuesday morning will be in the mid-60s.
A large trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere is currently pushing inland across the coast of California. The trough is forecast to dive southeast, moving across the southwestern US Tuesday, turning east-northeast and moving across northern Texas Wednesday and Wednesday night. Ahead of the trough, moisture is forecast to stream into Texas off the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday, causing the sky to be remain mostly cloudy sky. There will be a slight chance for a few rain showers and thunderstorms across the Hill Country and Interstate 35-corridor regions Tuesday afternoon. It will be a breezy day, with south winds in the range of 10-20 mph. The temperature should warm to the low and mid-80s.
The potential for rain and thunderstorms is expected to increase across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the West Texas dry line Tuesday evening as the atmosphere grows increasingly unstable. These thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage and intensity Tuesday evening as they slowly move to the east. The thunderstorms are forecast to congeal into a large complex of rain and thunderstorms across the western Hill Country by about midnight. This activity is then forecast to spread east across the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. The rain and storms are forecast to spread east across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon. The rain should taper off across the Hill Country and Central Texas region Wednesday afternoon and across the coastal plains region Wednesday evening.
Some of the thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday may be strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Hill Country under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. SPC forecasters have placed the area east of Interstate 35 under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon. The primary severe weather threats are forecast to be damaging straight-line winds and large hail.
Significant rainfall will be possible Tuesday night and Wednesday as the area of thunderstorms moves across the area. The National Weather Service's rainfall forecast is calling for most locations to see totals to near 1 inch. However, a couple of isolated totals of 2-3 inches will be possible.NWS rainfall forecast for the period 7 pm Monday through 7 pm Wednesday:
Sunny, dry and warm weather is forecast Thursday and Friday in the wake of the departing storm system. Lows Thursday and Friday mornings will include the low 50s across the Hill Country, the mid and upper 50s across Central Texas and the upper 50s to low 60s across the coastal plains. High temperatures will be around 78-80 degrees Thursday and in the mid-80s Friday.
Another large trough of low pressure is forecast to dive southeast from California late this week and take a southerly path across Texas this weekend. The trough is expected to reach a position over the southwestern US late Friday, with the trough moving across North Texas Saturday and Sunday. Gulf moisture looks to return to the region Friday night into Saturday morning in advance of the trough. This will cause the sky to become mostly cloudy. A few scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon, followed by a better chance for rain and thunderstorms across the entire region Saturday night and Sunday. Rainfall forecasts indicate this system may produce widespread totals of 1-2 inches. High temperatures Saturday and Sunday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 70s, with lows in the 60s.
Looking ahead to next week, the first half of the week is shaping up to be dry and warm with high temperatures in the low 80s. We may see a slight chance for rain late Wednesday into Thursday when a weak cold front pushes across the area. Rainfall is not expected to be very heavy. Low 80s should continue for the second half of next week.