A weak Canadian cold front was pushing south across Texas Friday afternoon. As of mid-afternoon, the front stretched from near Tyler to Austin to Del Rio. An area of rain showers developed this morning across the northern Hill Country as the cold front moved through the area. According to LCRA's Hydromet, a few totals to near 1 inch occurred across parts of Brown, Coleman, Mills and McCulloch Counties. Across the rest of Central Texas, spotty rain showers have totaled less than a tenth of an inch. For the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening, little to no additional rain is forecast across the Hill Country, Central Texas or the middle Texas coast as the focus for rain shifts to the area south and southwest of San Antonio. This afternoon's cold front is expected to continue moving south this afternoon and push off the middle Texas coast late this evening. Behind the cold front, northerly winds of 10-15 mph will bring in drier and cooler air. Under a partly cloudy sky, low temperatures Saturday morning will include the mid and upper 50s across the Hill Country, the upper 50s to 60 degrees across Central Texas and low to mid 60s across the coastal plains.
A dome of Canadian high pressure is forecast to spread south across Texas Saturday, bringing dry and slightly cooler air. The sky will be mostly sunny. Expect a north wind at 10-15 mph. High temperatures are forecast to range from near 80 degrees across the Hill Country to the upper 80s across the coastal plains. Lows Sunday morning will range from the mid 50s across the Hill Country to near 60 degrees across the coastal plains.
A secondary push of drier and slightly cooler air is forecast to spread south across the region on Sunday. No rain is expected due to the very dry atmosphere. Sunday's weather will be sunny and pleasant with high temperatures mostly in the low and mid 80s. Readings Sunday night are forecast to be a little cooler due to the dry air. Lows Monday morning are forecast to reach the upper 40s across the Hill Country and the low 50s across Central Texas and the coast.
The weather pattern is forecast to stay dry next week as our region remains under the influence of a weak ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere. The storm track is expected to stay well to the north of Texas. The cooler air mass moving into the area this weekend will linger into early next week but warmer temperatures do look to return for the middle and latter parts of next week. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be in the mid 80s. Upper 80s are forecast Wednesday through Friday. Lows temperatures early next week will be in the low 60s but will warm to the mid and upper 60s for the latter part of the week.
Today's long-range forecast data suggests a dry and warm weather pattern will continue next weekend and the first half of the following week. High temperatures should continue in the mid to upper 80s. We may begin to see some changes in the pattern around the 20th or 21st. The long-range forecast data indicates rainfall will likely be below normal during the second half of October.Tropical Weather Update
As of late Friday afternoon, the eye of hurricane Matthew was centered about 40 miles east of Jacksonville Beach, Florida. Matthew is moving toward the north near 12 mph, and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast and then to the northeast is expected on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will continue to move near or over the
coast of northeast Florida and Georgia through tonight, and near or over the coast of South Carolina on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph with higher gusts. Matthew is now a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Although weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, Matthew is expected to remain a hurricane until it begins to move away from the southeastern United States on Sunday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles. A private weather station in Jacksonville recently reported a wind gust of 82 mph. NOAA-NASA GOES Project
Friday afternoon's National Hurricane Center 5-day forecast calls for Matthew to move near or over the coast of South Carolina Saturday then bend offshore and weaken to a tropical storm on Sunday. The system is forecast track south and continue weakening Monday into Tuesday as it tracks toward the northern Bahamas. Matthew is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by Tuesday.
Tropical storm Nicole was centered late Friday afternoon about 365 miles south of Bermuda. Nicole is moving toward the south near 5 mph, and this general motion with some reduction in forward speed is forecast through early Sunday. A slow west-northwestward or northwestward drift is expected later on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next day or so. The National Hurricane Center's 5-day forecast call for Nicole to move north early next week, reaching each a position north of Bermuda by Wednesday.
Elsewhere across the tropical Atlantic basin, weather conditions are quiet. There are no systems which pose a threat for tropical development over the next 5 days.