​​​​​

​​
 

Will we build a snowman this February?

February in Central Texas can be quite cold. LCRA Chief Meteorologist Bob Rose shares his weather outlook for the month.

​​​

Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

A Slight Chance for Rain and Storms Saturday. A Dry Pattern Expected Sunday through Friday.
Friday, January 20, 2017 2:33 PM

...Please Note:  I will be out of the office January 23 through January 27.  My next blog update will be on Monday, January 30th...

 

An active weather pattern will be in place over the next couple of days that will likely bring our region several significant changes in the weather.

The sky will become mostly sunny across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions this afternoon, with temperature warming into the mid-70s.  However, forecasters will be closely monitoring weather conditions along the middle and upper Texas coast this afternoon and evening where scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop.  A small but vigorous trough of low pressure is forecast to move northeast out of Mexico and track along the Texas coast this afternoon, causing the atmosphere to become unstable.  Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the area generally to the south of Interstate 10 by about 3 pm.  Atmospheric conditions are such that some of these storms may become severe, producing large hail and damaging winds.  A couple of isolated tornadoes will also be possible.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed Wharton and Matagorda Counties under a Slight Risk for severe storms this afternoon and evening.  Colorado County has been placed under a Marginal Risk for severe storms.  Rainfall is forecast to average around a half inch, but isolated totals of 1-2 inches will be possible.  The thunderstorms should exit the area by about 9 pm.

Low clouds and patchy fog are forecast to develop across the region overnight.  Low temperatures Saturday morning will range from the mid and upper 40s across the Hill Country to the upper 50s towards the coast.

Saturday's sky looks to be partly cloudy.  Expect a high temperature in the mid-70s at most locations.  There will be a slight chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon in advance of a large trough of low pressure pushing east out of New Mexico.  These developing thunderstorms are not expected to become severe.  A slightly better chance for thunderstorms is forecast to occur Saturday evening and Saturday night when a cold front associated with the upper trough pushes east out of West Texas.  Isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the cold front as it moves to the east.  The probability for rain will be near 30 percent.  Rain amounts are forecast to average around a quarter inch, or less.  However, a couple of isolated totals to near 1 inch will not be out of the question.  The front is forecast to reach the Austin area around midnight Saturday night, pushing off the middle Texas coast before sunrise Sunday morning.  Low temperatures Sunday morning will range from the mid-40s across the Hill Country to the low 50s near the coast.

Very windy conditions are forecast to develop behind the cold front Saturday night and continue throughout the day on Sunday.  Forecast solutions call for an interesting weather situation behind the cold front that will cause a rare high-wind event.  The atmosphere will be structured in a way that will allow very strong winds in the lower and middle atmosphere to reach the ground.  Sustained west and northwesterly winds of 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph are forecast to develop behind the cold front Saturday night.  After daybreak on Sunday, sustained winds are forecast to be near 20-30 mph, with gusts to near 45-50 mph! Wind speeds should decrease to 10-15 mph Sunday night.  Low temperatures Monday morning will range from the upper 30s across the Hill Country to the low 40s across Central Texas to the mid-40s near the coast. 

These strong winds, along with very low relative humidity levels will cause an elevated wild fire risk across the region on Sunday.  Any fires that do happen to start will be hard to contain due to the very strong winds.  I urge everyone to be extremely careful with any sort of outdoor flame or fire on Sunday!

Mostly sunny, dry and mild weather is forecast Monday into Tuesday.  Wind speeds should be considerably lower as the trough of low pressure exits our region.  The high temperature Monday will be in the mid-70s.  Low temperatures Tuesday morning will be near 48-52 degrees.  Tuesday's temperature should reach generally reach the mid-70s.

A Canadian cold front is forecast to push south across the region Tuesday afternoon and evening, bringing cooler air.  No rain is expected with the front due to the lack of moisture in the lower atmosphere.  The arrival of this cold front looks to be the start of a dry and cooler weather pattern that will remain in place for the remainder of the week and next weekend.  High temperatures Wednesday through Saturday are forecast to be around 58 degrees.  Low temperatures Thursday through Sunday mornings will include the mid-30s across the Hill Country, the upper 30s across Central Texas and the low 40s across the coastal plains.  Long-range solutions suggest slightly below normal temperatures will also continue through the first half of the week of January 30th.

Have a good weekend.

Bob
  

Previous Blog Entries

One More Opportunity for Rain Wednesday Night. Dry Weather Thursday and Friday.
Wednesday, January 18, 2017 4:33 PM


Waves of moderate to heavy rain moved across Central Texas, the eastern Hill Country and parts of the coastal plains region overnight and this morning, producing widespread totals of 1 to 3 inches.  An LCRA gauge on Lake Austin recorded one of the higher totals of 3.07 inches.  But the absolute highest amounts of rain occurred across the eastern half of Wharton County, where totals of 3 to 5 inches were observed.  LCRA's Hydromet gauge at Wharton recorded 3.90 inches, while the gauge at East Bernard recorded 5.18 inches.  Totals were considerably less across the Hill Country, with most amounts averaging only around a half inch.

NWS estimated rainfall occurring between 10 am Tuesday and 10 am Wednesday:

Tom2.pngA final wave of low pressure is forecast track northeast out of Mexico tonight into Thursday morning.  This next wave is expected to cause the development of more rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.  However, this time, the rain is expected to be focused mainly across the coastal plains region.  Here, the probability for rain will be near 60 percent.  Additional totals to around a half inch are forecast.   Lighter rains look to develop across Central Texas, extending west to around the Interstate 35 corridor.  Here, the probability for rain will be near 20-30 percent and overnight totals should average around a quarter inch, or less.  Low temperatures Thursday morning will be in the upper 40s, with mid-50s expected towards the coast.

The rain should exit our region early Thursday morning, with the sky becoming mostly sunny Thursday afternoon through Friday.  The temperature will be warmer; rising to the mid-70s on both days.

Today's forecast data indicates a pretty vigorous trough of low pressure will dip southeast out of Colorado and move across northern Texas Saturday and Saturday night.  Although the return of moisture is not expected to be all that significant, the approaching trough is still expected to cause the development of isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.  Some of the thunderstorms could be strong.  As of now, rain totals are only expected to average less than a quarter inch.  The rain should exit to the east late Saturday night as drier and slightly cooler air spreads in behind a Pacific cold front.

Sunny, windy and slightly cooler temperatures are forecast Sunday in the wake of the cold front.  There are indications much of the region could see west and northwesterly winds in the range of 20-30 mph, with gusts to around 40-45 mph beginning early in the morning and lasting through late afternoon.  High temperatures will be in the mid and upper 60s.

Next week's weather is still looking dry.  High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be around 68-70 degrees.  But a cold front Tuesday night will bring cooler temperatures for the remainder of the week.  Expect high temperatures in the 50s with low temperatures in the 30s and 40s.

Bob

Rain and Cool Temperatures through Wednesday. Dry and Warmer Weather Thursday and Friday.
Tuesday, January 17, 2017 4:22 PM

A wet and unsettled weather pattern remains in place across Central and South Texas.  Weather radar as of mid-afternoon showed numerous patches of rain showers and thunderstorms developing across the coastal plains region and spreading north across Central Texas and the Hill Country.   Meanwhile, a fairly widespread coverage of rain is occurring across West Central Texas.  Rainfall since midnight has averaged less than a quarter inch across the Hill Country as of 4 pm.  Parts of Central Texas and the coastal plains region have observed totals of between 0.5 and 0.75 inches.   

An overrunning pattern of clouds and rain has developed in response to cold front pushing south through the area and the presence of an area of low pressure located over northwestern Mexico.  Early this afternoon, the front was located across the coastal plains, stretching from north of Beaumont, to Houston, Wharton, Victoria and Beeville.  Temperatures north of the front were in the 40s and 50s.  The area of low pressure over northwestern Mexico is causing warm Gulf air to be lifted up and over the shallow layer of cool air at the surface, resulting in the development of widespread clouds along with numerous rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.

A large piece of the low pressure system over northwestern Mexico is forecast to track northeast across Mexico tonight, moving across western Texas on Wednesday.  As the low gets closer to Texas tonight and Wednesday, rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to increase in areal coverage across the region.  The most widespread activity is forecast to occur generally to the east of Interstate 35 and south to the coast.  The rain will generally be light to moderate in intensity, but some brief periods of moderate to heavy rain will be possible. The probability for rain is forecast to be near 80 percent tonight through Wednesday.  The rain activity is expected to slowly taper off from west to east Wednesday night into early Thursday morning as the area of low pressure exits to the northeast.  Just a slight chance for rain is forecast across the coastal plains region Thursday morning. 

The overall threat for severe thunderstorms is fairly low.  However, the Storm Prediction Center has placed the area south and southeast of Austin under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon through early Wednesday morning.  Locally damaging winds and large hail would be the main severe weather impacts should any of the thunderstorms become severe.

National Weather Service rainfall forecasts for the next 36 hours call for the highest totals of rain to occur over East Texas, extending southwest to the middle Texas coast.  Lighter totals are forecast to the west.  Totals through Thursday morning are forecast to average around a half inch across the Hill Country, between 0.5 and 1.5 inches across Central Texas and between 1.5 and 2.5 inches across the middle Texas coast.

NWS rainfall forecast for the period from 6 pm Tuesday through 6 pm Thursday:
Rain6.png
 
Little change in the temperature is forecast this afternoon.  Low temperatures Wednesday morning will include the low and mid-40s across the Hill Country, the upper 40s across Central Texas and be around 60 degrees across the coastal plains.  High temperatures Wednesday will be mostly in the upper 50s, although upper 60s are expected towards the coast.  Low temperatures Thursday morning will be in the mid and upper 40s.

Mostly sunny and warmer weather looks to develop Thursday afternoon into Friday as mild Pacific air spreads in from the west.  High temperatures Thursday will be in the low 70s, warming to the mid-70s Friday.  Low temperatures Friday morning will be in the range from the upper 40s across the Hill Country to the upper 50s towards the coast.

Today's forecast solutions call for a trough of low pressure to dive southeast from the southern Rockies Saturday afternoon, moving across the northern half of Texas Saturday night into early Sunday morning.  Clouds and a limited amount of moisture are forecast to spread north from the Gulf ahead of the trough.  This will result in a partly cloudy sky and a slight chance for rain showers Saturday afternoon.  A slightly better chance for rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast Saturday night.  The rain should end from west to east late Saturday night.  Rain totals Saturday through Saturday night are forecast to total less than quarter inch.  High temperatures Saturday will be in the low 70s.  Low temperatures Sunday morning will be near 48-50 degrees while high temperatures Sunday should be in the mid and upper 60s.

Looking ahead to next week, a dry weather pattern is forecast throughout the week.  A large ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere is forecast to develop across the western US mid-week while a large trough of low pressure develops across the eastern US.  Mild readings are forecast Monday and Tuesday, with highs in the 60s and 70s.  A Canadian cold front is forecast to push through the region late Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing cooler temperatures for the latter half of the week.  High temperatures are forecast to lower to the 50s, with low temperatures in the 30s and 40s.

Bob

A Wet Pattern Will be in Plance Through Tuesday. Dry Weather Returning Wednesday.
Friday, January 13, 2017 4:01 PM

An unsettled weather pattern has begun to develop across Central Texas as considerable moisture is now spreading inland off the Gulf of Mexico.  Earlier this morning, a wave of low pressure tracking north from the Gulf, produced an area of moderate rain showers across the Interstate 35 corridor from roughly San Marcos to Temple.  Totals generally ranged from 0.25 to 0.75 inches across parts of Travis, Hays, Burnet and Williamson Counties.  According to LCRA's Hydromet, the highest gauged total occurred along Barton Creek at Loop 360 in west central Austin, where 0.91 inches of rain was recorded.

Interestingly, the National Weather Service is confirming a weak tornado occurred in north central Williamson County, near the town of Walburg, at around 9:30 am this morning.  The tornado caused minor damage to a home and a business.  This tornado developed when the area of heavy rain showers intersected a nearly stationary cold front.

A Canadian cold front slipped south out of North Texas overnight and has pulled stationary across the Hill Country and the northern counties of Central Texas.  As of mid-afternoon, the front stretched from Tyler to Georgetown, To Llano and Eldorado.  North of the boundary, temperatures have been running in the 40s and 50s while the rest of the region has seen temperatures in the 70s and low 80s.  The boundary is forecast to remain nearly stationary through tonight then push back north as a warm front on Saturday.  The front will cause a big difference in the temperature over the next 24 hours, with areas north of the boundary staying generally in the 40s and 50s, while warm and very humid conditions will be in place to the south.

Tonight through Saturday night, I am expecting periods of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the entire region as additional weak disturbances move from south to north.  The probability for rain will be near 30 percent across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and near 20 percent across the middle Texas coast.  2-day rain amounts are forecast to less than a half inch, with isolated totals to near 1 inch possible.  Otherwise, the weather will be mostly cloudy, warm and humid both days.  High temperatures Saturday will be in the low and mid.  The low temperature Saturday and Sunday mornings will be around 60 degrees.

Forecasters continue to monitor the progress of a large trough of low pressure that was located this morning across the western US.  This trough is forecast to sink south to northwestern Mexico today and Saturday.  One piece of the trough is forecast eject northeast and move across Far West Texas late Sunday into Monday morning.  In advance of the trough, scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the region during the day on Sunday.  The probability for rain will generally be near 40-50 percent.

The probability for rain and thunderstorms will increase across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Sunday evening and Sunday night as the trough begins moving into West Texas.  A large area of rain and thunderstorms is forecast to develop across West Central Texas late Sunday afternoon and slowly spread east across the Hill Country and Central Texas region Sunday night into Monday morning.  Moderate to occasionally heavy rain will be possible.  The large area of rain should exit the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Monday morning, with occasional light rains continuing Monday afternoon and Monday night.  Along the middle Texas coast, the highest probability for rain and thunderstorms looks to occur Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.   Rain totals Sunday through Monday are forecast to generally average around 2 inches, with isolated heavier totals.

A second piece of the upper trough is forecast to move northeast out of Mexico and move across Texas on Tuesday, causing a widespread coverage of mostly light rain showers along with a couple of isolated thunderstorms.  The rain should taper off from west to east Tuesday night.  Additional totals to near a half inch are forecast.

Rain amounts between Friday evening and next Wednesday evening are forecast to generally average between 2 and 3 inches, along with some isolated heavier totals.

NWS rainfall forecast for the period from 6 pm Friday through 6 pm Wednesday:Rain5.png

Dry and sunny weather is forecast next Wednesday through Friday.  High temperatures Wednesday will be in the mid-60s, while high temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in the mid-70s.

Have a good weekend.

Bob

A Rainy Pattern Expected this Weekend, Continuing through Next Tuesday.
Thursday, January 12, 2017 6:18 PM

Here is another update on the wet and unsettled weather pattern that will be developing beginning Friday.  New forecast solutions are calling for some changes in the forecast, compared to the last couple of days.

The focus for the upcoming changing weather pattern will primarily involve the progression of a large area of low pressure that was located Thursday afternoon off the coast of northern California.  The low pressure system is forecast to track south across California Friday and arrive at a position off the coast of southern California/northwestern Mexico on Saturday.  The low is forecast to track east across northern Mexico Saturday and Sunday at a somewhat slower pace than previously forecast.  One piece of the low is forecast to turn northeast and move across far West Texas Sunday night into Monday while a second piece of the low is now forecast to move across Texas on Tuesday.

Another item to watch Friday into Saturday will be a Canadian cold front that oozed south out of the Plains states and into North Texas Thursday afternoon.  As of late Thursday afternoon, the front stretched from Paris, to Dallas to Brownwood to north of Midland.  The front is expected to sink a little further south into the northern Hill Country on Friday, but it should stall well to the north of Austin Friday afternoon.  For locations north of the front, high temperatures Friday will be in the 50s and 60s.  South of the front, high temperatures Friday look to be in the mid-70s.  Expect a southeasterly wind at 10-15 mph.  The front should turn back north into North Texas on Saturday, having no effect on Central Texas weather.

In advance of the trough along the West Coast, moisture will begin to increase off the Gulf of Mexico and spread inland across Texas.  This may result in a few spotty light rain showers Thursday night into Friday night.  The probability for rain will be near 20 percent and actual rain amounts should be quite low.  There will be a slightly increased probability for passing rain showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night as atmospheric moisture levels increase further.  The chance for rain will be near 30 percent.

Sunday's weather is shaping up to be cloudy.  There will be a 30-40 percent chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms throughout the day.  A large area of rain and thunderstorms across West Texas late Sunday afternoon, and this activity is forecast to slowly spread east across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Sunday night into Monday.  The probability for rain will be near 70-80 percent.  This large area of rain is forecast to spread east to the coastal plains region Monday afternoon into Monday night.  The latest forecast data indicates the threat for severe storms Sunday into Monday has decreased across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, shifting more toward Northwest Texas.

Cooler air will spread east across the region Monday afternoon into Monday night behind a Pacific cold front.  Low temperatures will fall into the mid and upper 40s Monday night.  The threat for heavy rain should decrease as the cooler spreads into the area.  However, a widespread light to moderate rain is forecast to continue Monday night through Tuesday evening as the second piece of the low pressure area lifts north out of Mexico.  The rain should taper off from west to east Tuesday night.  Dry weather is forecast next Wednesday and Thursday.

The National Weather Service's rainfall forecast for the next 7 days calls for general totals of 1-2 inches across the Hill Country, with 2-3 inches at most other locations.  Some isolated heavier totals will be possible.  The majority of this rain is forecast to occur Sunday night into Monday afternoon.

Rain11.png

 
I'll pass along another update on Friday.

Bob

Moderate to Heavy Rain Expected Sunday into Monday. Some Strong Storms Possible.
Tuesday, January 10, 2017 5:48 PM

Here is an update on the threat for rain late week and through the weekend.  Forecast model solutions have changed some since Monday in regards to the progression of the storm system out of the southwestern US.

Forecasters continue to monitor the progress of a large trough of low pressure currently located off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and western Canada.  The trough is forecast to slowly track south along the West Coast Wednesday and Thursday arriving at a position over southern California on Friday.  A deep layer of moisture is forecast to spread inland across Texas Thursday out ahead of the upper trough.  This will result in a mostly cloudy sky and breezy conditions.  There will be a slight chance for a few brief rain showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.  Rain amounts, if any, should average well below a quarter inch.  The probability for rain will be near 20 percent.

Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to become a bit more numerous across the region Friday through when the trough of low pressure over California begins pushing east across northwestern Mexico.  Atmospheric moisture levels will increase further while the atmosphere becomes increasingly unstable.  Expect a 40 percent chance for occasional rain showers and isolated thunderstorms through Saturday night.  Rain amounts are not expected to be all that heavy, with most totals averaging around a quarter inch, or less.  High temperatures both days will be in the low and mid-70s.

The most favorable period for rain and thunderstorms is now forecast to occur Sunday into Sunday night when the trough of low pressure turns northeast into New Mexico, forcing a Pacific cold front to push east out of West Texas.  Ahead of the front, the atmosphere is forecast to become increasingly moist and unstable.  A large area of rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast to develop across West Texas Sunday morning and slowly shift east across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.  There are indications some of these storm could be possibly be strong to severe.  Large hail and damaging winds will be the most likely severe weather elements.  The heaviest rains and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to slowly shift east to the coastal plains region Sunday night into Monday morning.

That Pacific cold front is forecast to push east across the region Sunday night into Monday morning, bringing in slightly cooler air.  A fairly widespread coverage of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms is forecast to continue across the entire region behind the cold front on Monday.  The rain should taper off from west to east Monday night into Tuesday morning as the trough of low pressure moves into the Plains states and drier air spreads in behind the cold front.

Depending on how this situation evolves, much of Central and South Texas could see some significant totals of rain Sunday through Monday.  The latest National Weather Service rainfall forecast indicates much of the area could see between 2 and 3 inches of rain between Thursday and Tuesday:

NWS rainfall forecast for the period from 6 pm Tuesday through next Tuesday at 6 pm:
Rain7.png
 
Sunny, dry and mild weather is forecast next Tuesday through Friday as a very stable air mass settles over the region.  High temperatures will be in the 60s Tuesday and Wednesday, warming to the 70s Thursday and Friday.  Low temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s.

I'll pass along another update on Wednesday.

Bob

Warm Temperatures this Week with an Increasing Chance for Rain by the Weekend.
Monday, January 9, 2017 2:33 PM

In the wake of the coldest period of weather since February, 2011,  temperatures have returned to mild levels across Central Texas.  Low temperatures this morning were generally in the 30s across the Hill Country and in the 40s at most other locations.  Only a few Hill Country locations recorded temperatures at or below freezing.

The large arctic air mass which sank south into Texas late last week has shifted off to the east and is now center along the US East Coast.  A clockwise circulation around the large arctic high pressure dome has brought a return of mild, southerly winds to all of Texas.  Midday temperatures have climbed into the 60s across the entire region.  This afternoon's weather will be mostly sunny across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions.  However, the sky is forecast to stay mostly cloudy sky along the middle Texas and upper Texas coast, where an area of moisture is spreading inland off the Gulf of Mexico.  Today's temperature looks to reach the mid and upper 60s at most locations although readings near 70-72 degree readings are forecast across the coastal plains region.  With considerable moisture spreading inland from the coast, the sky will likely become overcast overnight.  Some patchy drizzle will be possible for areas along and east of the Escarpment late tonight into early Tuesday morning.  Low temperatures Tuesday morning will include the low and mid-50s across the Hill Country, the mid and upper 50s across Central Texas and low 60s towards the coast.  Expect a south wind at 10-15 mph this afternoon and tonight.

A pattern of nighttime and morning clouds, followed by partly cloudy afternoons will be in place Tuesday and Wednesday as a southerly wind flow continues off the Gulf of Mexico.  Unseasonably mild temperatures are forecast both days.  Readings are forecast to reach the middle 70s Tuesday and the upper 70s to 80 degrees on Wednesday.  Low temperatures Wednesday morning will be in the upper 50s while low temperatures Thursday morning will be in the low and mid-60s.  South winds at 10-15 mph are expected through the period.

The weather pattern will be trending more unsettled Thursday into Friday as two different weather features begin influencing our weather.  The first feature will be a Canadian cold sinking south out of the Plains states.  The front is forecast to reach the Red River Valley region Thursday, temporarily stalling across North Central Texas on Friday.  The other feature will be a large trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere tracking south along the West Coast late week.  Ahead of both features, moisture will increase off the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific.  This will lead to a mostly cloudy sky and a few spotty light rain showers Thursday.  With the atmosphere forecast to become nearly saturated by late Thursday, this will lead to a 40-50 percent chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday.  Rain amounts Thursday night through Friday night are forecast to total between 0.5 and 1 inch.  High temperatures Thursday and Friday should be in the mid-70s.

A wet and unsettled weather pattern is forecast across the entire region Saturday through Monday as the West Coast trough of low pressure slowly tracks east across the Desert Southwest and into Texas.  Meanwhile, the cold front across North Texas is forecast to slowly push south into northwest Texas Saturday, into Central Texas on Sunday, pushing off the middle Texas coast on Monday.  The combination of an unusually moist air mass along with the slow-moving trough of low pressure and cold front point to development of widespread, soaking rains and scattered thunderstorms all three days. Significant totals of rain are forecast through the period, with widespread totals of 2-4 inches possible.  We might also have to watch for some strong to possibly severe thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.

Here is look at the National Weather Service's 7-day rainfall forecast, for the period from 6 pm Monday through 6 pm next Monday, 01/16.

Rain6.png  
Temperatures will turn cooler behind the cold front beginning next Sunday, with high temperatures falling to the 50s and low temperatures mostly in the 40s.

Medium-range forecast model solutions indicate we may see a continued chance for rain next Tuesday and Wednesday as the trough of low pressure takes its time moving out of northern Mexico.  High temperatures look to be in the 50s and 60s with low temperatures in the 40s.

Today's long-range forecast solutions do not show a pattern favorable to deliver arctic air into Texas over the next 10-days.

Last Weekend's Bitterly Cold Temperatures.
Temperatures over the weekend were teeth-chattering cold!  Readings reached into the teens and 20s across the entire region.  LCRA's Hydromet showed several locations across the western and northern Hill Country dipped into the single digits Saturday morning.  The lowest gauged temperature was 5 degrees at two separate locations in northern Brown County.   Sunday morning was the coldest morning for the eastern counties of Central Texas and the coastal plains region.  Numerous locations across Travis, Bastrop and Fayette Counties recorded readings in the teens.  LCRA's Hydromet showed the temperature reaching 17 degrees at Hallettsville and 20 degrees at Columbus.

In Austin, the low temperature at Camp Mabry Saturday was 19 degrees while the low temperature Sunday was 21 degrees.  At Austin-Bergstrom Airport, the low temperature Saturday was 19 degrees and the low temperature Sunday was 16 degrees.

Austin-Camp Mabry recorded 34 hours with the temperature at or below freezing, from 2 am Friday morning till noon on Saturday.  Austin-Bergstrom recorded 26 hours with the temperature at or below freezing, from 10 am Friday morning till noon on Saturday.

Bob  

Very Cold this Weekend but Mild Readings Returning for Next Week.
Friday, January 6, 2017 12:26 PM


Very cold temperatures are currently in place in the wake of Thursday's arctic cold front. Noontime observations showed the temperature was below freezing across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, extending south to about Interstate 10.  South of the Interstate, the temperature was only a couple of degrees above freezing.  Earlier this morning, some freezing drizzle and light freezing rain was observed over parts of Central Texas as an area of moisture spread north from the Gulf.  Weather radar shows this precipitation has now pushed off to the east.  High-resolution forecast data calls for no additional precipitation across Central Texas.  For areas south of Interstate 10, occasional light rain, possibly mixed with sleet, is forecast to continue through late afternoon.  No sleet accumulation is expected.  All of the precipitation should exit our region by late afternoon as a trough of low pressure over Oklahoma moves off to the east.  Cloudy and very cold weather will hold in place this afternoon as a dome of arctic high pressure settles into Texas out of the Plains states.  The temperature is forecast to warm only a couple of degrees, reaching the mid and upper 20s across the Hill Country, the low 30s across Central Texas and the middle 30s across the coastal plains.  Expect a strong north wind at 10-15 mph with occasional gusts to 30 mph.

The sky is forecast to clear after midnight tonight.  Conditions will remain breezy and very cold!  Expect a north wind at 10-15 mph, with gusts to 25 mph.  Low temperatures Saturday morning are forecast to be in the mid and upper teens across the Hill Country, in the low and mid-20s across Central Texas and in the mid to upper 20s across the coastal plains region.

Saturday's weather will be sunny, but quite cold.  High temperatures will generally be near 40-42 degrees.  North winds will be in the range of 10-15 mph through the morning hours but should decrease to around 5-10 mph in the afternoon.

A clear sky, a light wind and very cold temperatures will be in place Saturday night.  A hard freeze is forecast across the entire region.  Low temperatures Sunday morning will include the mid and upper teens across the Hill Country, the low to mid 20s across Central Texas and the mid-20s across the coastal plains.

The arctic air mass will begin shifting off to the east Sunday, allowing the temperature to warm a few degrees.  Sunday's weather will be sunny with high temperatures generally around 50-52 degrees.  Expect a southeast wind at 5-10 mph

The temperature shouldn't be nearly as cold Sunday night as the sky turns partly cloudy.  However, a light freeze will still be possible across the Hill Country and parts of Central Texas.  Low temperatures Monday morning will include the low 30s across the Hill Country, the low and mid-30s across Central Texas and the low to mid 40s across the coastal plains.

Mild temperatures look to return to our region early next week and remain in place throughout the week.  The storm track is forecast to shift north as our region comes under the influence of a stable ridge of high pressure building north out of Mexico.  The only significant weather features to talk about will be two cold fronts.  The first cold front will approach the Hill Country and Central Texas regions next Tuesday, then move back to the north as a warm front on Wednesday.  The second cold front is forecast to move through the area next Friday.  This front may bring an area of rain showers to the region next Friday.  However, rain amounts are not expected to be very heavy.   The sky will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky next Monday through Thursday.

High temperatures will be in the mid-60s Monday, warming to the low and mid-70s Tuesday, continuing into Thursday.  Low temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will be in the 50s, while low temperatures Thursday and Friday mornings will be in the low 60s.

By the way, long-range forecasts do not call for any additional arctic outbreaks over the next two weeks.

Have a good weekend and stay warm.

Bob

Arctic Air Arriving this Afternoon, Continuing through the Weekend.
Thursday, January 5, 2017 1:16 PM

Winter-like temperatures will be returning to the region this afternoon and tonight when an arctic cold front pushes south out of North Texas.  As of 1 pm, the front was located along a line from Longview to near Temple, Mason and to south of San Angelo.  Behind the cold front, the temperature was in the low 30s across much of North Texas, with teens and 20s reported across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle.  The front should steadily move to the south this afternoon, reaching the Austin area during the early afternoon.  The front should reach the Interstate 10 corridor by late afternoon, pushing off the coast early this evening.  Ahead of the front, the temperature will warm to around 60 degrees across Central Texas and to the low and mid-60s across the coastal plains region.  Readings will fall into the 40s behind the cold front.  The wind will shift out of the north and increase to around 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.  The sky will be partly cloudy across the Hill Country and most of Central Texas this afternoon.  But clouds will likely hold in place across the coastal plains region.

Forecasters are closely monitoring a trough of low pressure located over northern California and Nevada.  This system is forecast to track southeast this afternoon and tonight, then push east across the southern Plains states on Friday.  This system is expected to cause the development of snow across much of Oklahoma and the Red River Valley of North Texas tonight into Friday morning.  But the trough will be located too far north and the atmosphere will be too dry to cause any significant precipitation across the Hill Country or Central Texas regions.  While some spotty or very light precipitation cannot be totally ruled out, most locations should stay dry, with no impacts.  Should precipitation occur, it would most likely be in the form of light freezing rain or freezing drizzle.  Across the coastal plains region, some light rain showers will be possible overnight into Friday morning, but the precipitation should remain liquid as temperatures stay above freezing.  The approaching trough will help pull clouds north across the region tongiht, resulting in a mostly cloudy to overcast sky.

Breezy and much colder weather will be in place overnight, continuing into Friday morning.  Expect a north wind at 10-20 mph with occasional gusts to near 30 mph.  Low temperatures Friday morning will include the low and mid-20s across the Hill Country, the upper 20s across Central Texas with mid and upper 30s across the coastal plains region.

Weather conditions Friday look to be mostly cloudy, breezy and quite cold.  High temperatures are forecast to only be in the mid-30s across the Hill Country and most of Central Texas, with readings reaching 40-42 degrees across the coastal plains region.  Expect a north wind at 10-20 mph throughout the day.

Clouds look to slowly clear Friday night as the trough of low pressure exits to the northeast.  Very cold temperatures are forecast.  A hard freeze is expected across the Hill Country and all of Central Texas.  The low temperature Saturday morning will be around 20-22 degrees across the Hill Country, in the mid-20s across Central Texas and around 30 degrees across the coastal plains region.  Expect a north wind at around 10-15 mph.

The weather will be sunny but cold Saturday.  High temperatures will only be near 40 degrees across the Hill Country, in the low 40s across Central Texas and in the mid-40s across the coastal plains.  Northerly winds should decrease to around 5-10 mph in the afternoon.

Clear and very cold conditions are expected Saturday night.  A hard freeze is expected across the entire region, extending south to the coast.  The low temperature Sunday morning will be in the upper teens to low 20s across the Hill Country, in the mid-20s across Central Texas and in the upper 20s across the coastal plains.  Expect a light wind.

Sunny and a little warmer weather is expected Sunday as the arctic air mass begins pushing off to the east.  High temperatures will generally be in the upper 40s.  Readings Sunday night are expected to be a bit warmer, with lows Monday morning ranging from the low 30s across the Hill Country to near 40 degrees across the coastal plains.

The threat for additional freezes will end early next week as the arctic air mass exits our region.  Southerly winds will bring a return of sunny and mild weather.  High temperatures will in the 60s Monday and in the 70s on Tuesday.  Low temperatures will be in the 50s.

Bob

Temperatures Trending Much Colder this Week, Continuing into the Weekend.
Tuesday, January 3, 2017 1:36 PM

Temperatures will be trending much colder this week as two separate cold fronts bring a return of more winter-like readings.  The first cold front was located early this afternoon across North Texas, stretching from Texarkana to Brownwood, to near Midland.  Ahead of the cold front, mostly sunny and mild weather will be in place.  High temperatures will range from the upper 60s across the Hill Country to the middle 70s towards the coast.  Expect a west wind at 5-12 mph.

The cold front is forecast to move across the Hill Country this afternoon, reaching the Austin area by late afternoon.  The front will continue driving south this evening, pushing off the middle Texas coast before midnight.  No rain is expected with the front, but an overcast sky will likely develop behind the front this evening and overnight.  Breezy and noticeably cooler conditions will take hold overnight.  Low temperatures Wednesday morning will include the low and middle 30s across the Hill Country, the upper 30s across Central Texas and the low to mid 40s across the coastal plains.  Expect a north wind at 10-15 mph.

Clouds will slowly clear Wednesday morning, with the sky becoming mostly sunny in the afternoon.  Wednesday's temperature will only warm to around 50-52 degrees.  There will be a north wind at 10-15 mph for much of the day.  The low temperature Thursday morning will again range from the low and mid-30s across the Hill Country to the low and mid-40s towards the coast.

The second cold front, an arctic cold front, is forecast to push south across the region Thursday afternoon.  Ahead of the front, readings will briefly warm into the 60s Thursday morning but much colder readings will follow in the afternoon.  The front should move through with no precipitation, although the sky will likely become cloudy behind the front Thursday afternoon.  Windy and much colder weather will develop Thursday afternoon, continuing Thursday night.  Expect a northwesterly wind at 15-25 mph, with occasional gusts to around 30 mph.  Readings are forecast to fall to or below freezing across the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor regions by about sunrise Friday morning.  Low temperatures Friday morning will include the mid and upper 20s across the Hill Country, the low 30s across the Interstate 35 corridor, with middle 30s across Central Texas and lower 40s towards the coast.

We will need to closely watch weather conditions Friday morning, as parts of the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor could see a little light freezing precipitation.  Forecast solutions call for a weak trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere to track from eastern New Mexico to the Red River Valley region during the day on Friday.  This system is forecast to be just strong enough to possibly generate a little light precipitation across the region Friday morning into Friday afternoon.  As of now, just a few hundredths of an inch of precipitation is forecast.  However, temperatures across the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor will be cold enough Friday morning for the precipitation to potentially become light freezing rain or light freezing drizzle.  Significant precipitation is not expected.  There is still considerable uncertainty with this forecast for freezing precipitation, so please check back for later updates.  The threat for precipitation should end Friday evening as the trough of low pressure exits the region.

Friday's temperature will be quite cold, with readings only reaching the mid-30s across the Hill Country, the upper 30s across Central Texas, with mid and upper 40s across the coastal plains.

A hard freeze is forecast across the Hill Country and most of Central Texas Friday night.  Low temperatures Saturday morning will include the low and mid-20s across the Hill Country, the upper 20s across Central Texas and the lower 30s towards the coast.

Mostly sunny but cold weather will continue Saturday, with high temperatures mostly in the mid and upper 40s.

Another freeze is forecast Saturday night.  Lows Sunday morning will range from the mid-20s across the Hill Country to around 30 degrees towards the coast.

Sunny and a little warmer weather is forecast Sunday, with high temperatures around 50-52 degrees.

Low temperatures Monday morning will generally be in the mid and upper 30s.

The arctic air mass is forecast to shift east beginning next Monday, allowing milder temperatures to return to the region.  High temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s Monday, warming to the 70s next Tuesday through Friday.  Low temperatures next week look to generally be in the 40s to low 50s.  The weather pattern is forecast to be sunny and dry throughout the week.

2016 Weather Wrap Up
2016 weather across Central Texas averaged much warmer and wetter than normal.

Rainfall was down from 2015, but still averaged several inches above normal at most locations.  Austin-Camp Mabry received 38.85 inches of rain in 2016, making it the 32nd wettest year on record, dating back to 1897.  Meanwhile at Austin-Bergstrom, rainfall totaled 53.86 inches, making it the 3rd wettest year on record, behind 2015 and 1957.

In regards to temperature, 2016 will rank as one of the warmest years on record!  At Austin-Camp Mabry, the average annual temperature was 71.4 degrees, making 2016 the 4th warmest year on record, behind 2011, 2012 and 2006.  (Records date back to 1897).  The average annual temperature at Austin-Bergstrom was 69.6 degrees, ranking as the 7th warmest year on record, dating back to 1942.

Bob

View RSS feed