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La Niña out of the spotlight

The La Niña has ended, but does that end our chance for drought in Central Texas this spring and summer? LCRA Chief Meteorologist Bob Rose shares an update.​

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Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

A Slight Chance for Rain Monday and Tuesday. Cooler Temperatures Wednesday through Friday.
Monday, February 27, 2017 2:37 PM

After a brief cool down this past weekend, warm and humid weather conditions have returned to Central and South Texas.  Monday's weather maps showed the recent cold front has lifted north to the Red River Valley, allowing warm and moist air to return north from the Gulf of Mexico.  In the upper-levels of the atmosphere, the southern branch of the Polar jet stream is currently flowing from northwestern Mexico, across Central Texas and then northeast to the Middle Atlantic states.  One small wave of low pressure embedded within the Jet Stream moved across the region Sunday night, causing the development of a few thunderstorms over small parts of Bastrop, Fayette, Caldwell and Gonzales counties.  Most rain totals averaged around a half inch or less.  No other significant totals of rain were reported.  Another small wave of low pressure tracked across North Texas this morning, kicking off some scattered thunderstorms to the south and east of the DFW metroplex.  All of this activity is staying well north of the Hill Country and Central Texas.  This morning's analysis showed a fairly strong stable layer in the middle atmosphere in place over most of Central and South Texas, and this feature will likely limit the development of widespread rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon through Tuesday.

There will be a 20 percent chance for a few brief rain showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon through Tuesday evening, but most locations will likely stay dry.  Rain amounts should average around a tenth of an inch, with a few isolated totals to near a half inch possible.  Clouds will slowly decrease and the sky will become partly cloudy this afternoon.  A cloudy sky is forecast overnight through Tuesday morning, with the sky becoming partly to mostly cloudy Tuesday afternoon.  The high temperature this afternoon will generally be in the upper 70s to low 80s.  Low temperatures Tuesday morning will range from the upper 50s across the Hill Country to the upper 60s near the coast.  The high temperature Tuesday is forecast to be in the low and mid-80s.  Expect a south wind at 5-10 mph this afternoon and tonight, increasing to a range of 10-15 mph Tuesday.

Forecast solutions call for a Canadian cold front to sweep south out of North Texas, pushing into the northern Hill Country late Tuesday night.  The front should quickly move south across the rest of the region Wednesday morning.  There will be a slight chance for a few rain showers and isolated thunderstorms along the cold front, but rain amounts should average less than a quarter of an inch.  Mostly sunny, breezy and cooler conditions are forecast Wednesday afternoon behind the front.  Expect a high temperature in the mid-60s along with a north wind at 10-15 mph.  Clear and cool conditions will follow Wednesday night.  Lows Thursday morning will include the mid and upper 30s across the Hill Country, the low 40s across Central Texas and the mid to upper 40s towards the coast.

Mostly sunny, dry and pleasant weather is forecast Thursday through Friday as a dome of Canadian high pressure settles over Texas behind the cold front.  High temperatures both days will be in the mid and upper 60s.  Low temperatures Friday morning will range from the upper 30s across the Hill Country to the upper 40s near the coast.  Low temperatures Saturday morning will range from the low and mid-40s across the Hill Country to the mid-50s towards the coast.

A weak area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere is forecast to push east across northern Mexico this weekend, causing the weather pattern across Central and South Texas to become more unsettled.  Moisture spreading north from the Gulf will cause the sky to become mostly cloudy.  The approaching low is expected to cause a 30-40 percent chance for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms beginning Saturday morning, continuing through Sunday evening.  This will not be an all-day type of rain; just some periods of rain showers.  Weekend rain amounts are forecast to average less than a quarter inch across the Hill Country and between 0.25 and 0.5 inches at most other locations.   High temperatures will be in the mid-60s Saturday and the mid-70s Sunday.  Low temperatures will be in the 50s.

Looking ahead to next week, dry and warm weather is forecast Monday as the upper low exits to the east.  Expect a high temperature near 80 degrees.  Another Canadian cold front is forecast to push south across the region Monday night, bringing cooler air for next Tuesday through Thursday.  There looks to be a chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms along the cold front, but most rain amounts should average less than a quarter inch.  Sunny and dry weather will be in place Tuesday afternoon through Thursday.  Daily high temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s, with low temperatures in the 40s and 50s.  Warmer temperatures look to return late next week.

Have a good week.

Bob

Previous Blog Entries

Cooler Temperatures this Weekend with Milder Readings Returning Early Next Week.
Friday, February 24, 2017 2:26 PM

Does the unseasonably warm February mean a brutally hot summer? History shows there is not a strong correlation between the two. Of Austin’s 10 warmest winters, only four ended with summers ranking in the top 10. Find out more.

​After an early taste of summer Thursday, temperatures will begin trending cooler this afternoon and tonight following the passage of a Canadian cold front.  At midday, the cold front was pushing south into Central Texas, stretching from Longview to Austin to Fort Stockton.  Behind the front, temperatures were generally in the 50s and 60s and there was a strong northwesterly wind at 10-20 mph.  Interestingly, the noon temperature at Austin-Bergstrom was 81 degrees, but the temperature at Georgetown was 68 degrees.  With very little moisture in place, no rain or clouds are expected as the front moves through the area.  The front is forecast to push south out of Central Texas by about mid-afternoon, moving across the coastal plains region in the late afternoon and early evening.  Ahead of the front, the temperature is forecast to warm to the low and middle 80s.  Readings will fall through the 70s and 60s behind the cold front.

With a clear sky and light winds in place overnight, the temperature is expected to cool off very nicely.  Low temperatures Saturday morning will include the mid and upper 30s across the Hill Country, the upper 30s to low 40s across Central Texas and the mid-40s across the coastal plains.  Saturday's weather will be sunny but noticeably cooler.  High temperatures will range from the low 60s across the Hill Country to the upper 60s near the coast.  Expect a northeasterly wind at 10-15 mph.  It will be chilly again Saturday night.  Low temperatures Sunday morning will range from the upper 30s across the Hill Country to the mid-40s towards the coast.

Some changes in the weather pattern look to occur Sunday as southerly winds return to the region off the Gulf of Mexico.  A weak trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere currently located off the coast of the Pacific Northwest is forecast to track southeast to the Desert Southwest Sunday, then move northeast to the southern Plains states Sunday night into Monday.  The approaching trough is expected to pull an area of moisture north into Central Texas beginning Sunday afternoon.  The increased moisture may cause the development of a few spotty rain showers across the region Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.  The probability for rain will only be 20 percent and rain amounts, if any, should average less than a tenth of an inch.  The sky will be partly cloudy Sunday through Monday.  Sunday's temperature should warm to the low 70s, warming further to the mid and upper 70s Monday.  The low temperature Monday morning will be in the upper 50s.

Partly cloudy and dry weather is forecast Monday afternoon through Tuesday.  Tuesday's temperature is forecast to warm to near 78-80 degrees.

The next change in the weather is expected to take place Wednesday afternoon when another Canadian cold front pushes south through the area.  There will be a slight chance for a few rain showers along the front, but rain amounts should again only average around a tenth of an inch.  Clear, breezy and cooler weather will follow the cold front Wednesday night into Thursday.  Wednesday's temperature is forecast to reach the mid-70s, but readings will cool to the upper 30s to low 40s Wednesday night.  Temperatures Thursday and Friday should warm to the mid and upper 60s.  Low temperatures Friday and Saturday mornings will be in the 40s.

Long-range forecasts call for a warming trend next weekend, with readings warming back to the low and mid-70s, with low temperatures in the 50s.  A weak area of low pressure moving across Mexico may cause a few rain showers locally around Sunday or Monday (March 4/5).  However, rain amounts as of now are not expected to be very heavy.  Mild temperatures will continue, but I do not foresee the return of 90-degree temperatures anytime soon.

An Unusually Warm February
As you've likely noticed, the month of February has been unusually warm across the area.  In Austin, Camp Mabry's temperature through Thursday has averaged 9.8 degrees above normal and there have been 9 days with readings at or above 80 degrees.  Austin-Bergstrom's temperature has averaged 12.0 degrees above normal and there have been 13 days with temperatures at or 80 degrees.  Both climate sites are on pace to record their warmest Februarys on record.

Several folks have asked me if the unusually warm weather so early in the year is a sign that the upcoming summer is going to be brutally hot.  History has shown there isn't necessarily a strong correlation between an unusually mild winter and an unusually hot summer.  I took a look at Austin's 10 warmest winters on record and the resultant summer's temperature.  Four of the years with unusually mild winters did end up with top-ten warmest summers (1999, 2000, 2009 and 2011).  But the other six years had summers that were somewhere around the 33rd hottest, or cooler.

Summer's temperature is dependent on several factors such as soil moisture, the position of the summer ridge of high pressure, tropical weather and sea surface temperatures in the Gulf.  There will likely be several changes in the current global circulation pattern between now and June that will influence this summer's temperature.  While I do think the upcoming summer will be warmer than normal and at times very hot, I am not expecting it to be brutally hot, similar to 2011.

Have a good weekend and enjoy the cooler temperatures.

Bob

After an Early Taste of Summer, Slightly Cooler Temperatures Expected Friday through Sunday.
Thursday, February 23, 2017 6:37 PM


More summer-like heat was observed across the region Thursday, thanks to a large area of dry air spreading in out Mexico.  Thursday's readings were even warmer than those observed Wednesday.  Many locations across the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor recorded temperatures at or above 90 degrees!

Here is a look at Thursday's maximum temperature as recorded by LCRA's Hydromet  http://hydromet.lcra.org

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In Austin, both Camp Mabry and Austin-Bergstrom Airport recorded a high temperature of 90 degrees. While neither reading was a record, a temperature of 90 degrees is 23 degrees above the normal high temperature of 67 degrees.

According to the climate database, this level of heat so early in the year is quite rare.  For Austin-Camp Mabry, Thursday's 90-degree temperature tied for the 8th earliest 90-degree on record, dating back to 1897.  The average date of the first 90-degree temperature is April 16th.  For Austin-Bergstrom, Thursday's 90-degree temperature is the third earliest 90-degree on temperature.  The average date of the first 90-degree temperature is April 17th.

Locally and statewide, this has been one of the warmest, if not the warmest Februarys on record.  Data through February 22nd shows temperatures averaging more than 8 degrees above normal across the eastern half of Texas.  The temperature across much of southeast Texas has averaging more than 10 degrees above normal!

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A cold front will bring slightly cooler temperatures for Friday and the week.  High temperatures Friday will be mostly in the upper 70s.  Highs on Saturday will be in the low and mid-60s, warming to the low and mid-70s Sunday and Monday.  The temperature may get back to 80 degrees Tuesday, followed by noticeably cooler temperatures for the second half of the next week.

Fortunately, I don't see the return of 90-degree temperatures anytime soon.

Bob

More Unusual Heat Expected Thursday. Cooler Air Arriving Friday.
Wednesday, February 22, 2017 6:23 PM

Temperatures warmed to near summer-like levels across the region Wednesday as dry air spread in from the west.  Readings reached the mid and upper 80 at most locations.  And according to LCRA's Hydromet, a few spots even reached 90 degrees.

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Maximum temperatures recorded Wednesday from LCRA's Hydromet.

 
In Austin, Austin-Camp Mabry recorded a high temperature of 87 degrees while Austin-Bergstrom's temperature reached 86 degrees.

Similar summer-like temperatures are forecast Thursday when a Dry Line advances to the east, bringing more unusually dry air.  With abundant sunshine, Thursday's readings should generally peak around 90 degrees across the Hill Country, near 88-90 degrees across Central Texas and the low to mid-80s across the coastal plains.

Forecast solutions call for a dry cold front to move through the area during the day Friday, bringing cooler air.  Friday's temperature will generally reach the upper 70s.  Expect a northwesterly wind at 10-15 mph.  Readings should cool down nicely Friday night.  Low temperatures Saturday morning will reach the mid-30s across the Hill Country, the upper 30s to low 40s across Central Texas and the mid and upper 50s across the coastal plains.

Saturday's weather is shaping to sunny and noticeably cooler, with high temperatures in the low and mid-60s.  It will be cool again Saturday night, with lows Sunday morning ranging from the upper 30s across the Hill Country to the upper 40s near the coast.  Sunday's weather will be partly cloudy and a little warmer, with high temperatures in the low 70s.

It appears there will be a couple of chances for rain early next week.  The first one looks to occur Sunday night into Monday when a small trough of low pressure tracks east out of New Mexico.  This system is forecast to pull enough moisture north from the Gulf to produce some spotty light rain showers across the region.  Rain amounts should average around a tenth of an inch, or less.  Dry weather is forecast Monday through Tuesday.

The next chance for rain is expected to occur next Wednesday when a Canadian cold front pushes south through the area.  Once again, rain amounts will likely be low, averaging around a tenth of an inch.  The chance for rain should end Wednesday night as drier and cooler air spreads in behind the cold front.  High temperatures Monday will be in the mid-70s, but warm to around 80 degrees Tuesday.  High temperatures Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Wednesday's cold front is expected to bring a blast of cooler air that should last through late week and possibly into the following weekend.  High temperatures will be in the 60s, with low temperatures in the 30s and 40s.

Long-range forecast solutions indicate we may see another blast of cool air arriving sometime around the 4th or 5th of March.  Stay tuned for more details.

Bob
   

February's Unusually Mild Temperatures Have Moved Up the Start of Spring.
Tuesday, February 21, 2017 4:11 PM

Even though the calendar says it's February, it appears spring has sprung across Central Texas.  The unusually mild temperatures over the past few weeks have woken up many of our plants and trees from their winter sleep and triggered spring leaves and blooms.  The Texas mountain laurel and red bud trees in particular have come alive with vibrant colors and smells. The bees are busy and even the crickets have started singing.  It won't be long before the bluebonnets are out, painting their carpet of blue.


 

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If you're thinking spring has come early this year, you are correct.  The USA Phenology Network issued a reported earlier this month stating that based on recent observations of plants and trees, spring is arriving about 20 days earlier than normal across most of the southeastern US, including Central Texas.  According to scientists at NPN, early-leafing plants started putting out leaves nearly 3 weeks earlier than normal this year due to local weather conditions and broad climatic patterns.


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Start of Spring Anomaly 2017

As you can see, for Central Texas, the Hill Country and the southeastern US, spring is depicted as arriving close to 20 days earlier than normal.

Spring's early arrival comes as no real surprise with the very mild temperatures occurring in January and February.  For Austin, January's temperature measured at Camp Mabry was 5.2 degrees above normal and ranked as the 8th warmest January on record.  Data from February 1st through February 20th shows the temperature has averaged 9.3 degrees above normal.  February's average temperature of 63.9 degrees for the first 20 days of February ranks as the warmest on record!

The last freezing temperature recorded at Austin-Camp Mabry was on January 8th, with a temperature of 21 degrees.  Should no other additional freezes occur over the next few weeks, this winter's last freeze on Jan 8th will rank as the second earliest "last freeze" on record, dating back to 1900.

The mild pattern is forecast to continue this week, with high temperatures in the low and mid-80s Wednesday and Thursday.  A slight cool-down is expected late Friday through Sunday behind a cold front.  But more unseasonably mild temperatures are forecast to return early next week.

Bob

Rain Moving Out. Dry and Very Mild Weather Expected through Late Week.
Monday, February 20, 2017 2:23 PM

A large area of rain and thunderstorms developed across the Hill Country Sunday afternoon and slowly spread east across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast overnight.  Some of the storms turned severe across Central Texas, producing damaging straight-line winds across parts of Travis, Hays, Caldwell, Bastrop and Lee Counties.  A couple of weak tornadoes may have developed in the Taylor/Thrall area of eastern Williamson County.  A National Weather Service survey crew was headed up to the area Monday morning to check out the damage and confirm the possible tornadoes.  The National Weather Service is confirming an EF-1 tornado moved across the Quarry/Linda Drive area of San Antonio, with estimated winds of 105 mph and a path length of about 4.5 miles. 

The storms produced a widespread area of moderate to heavy rain from the western Hill Country to the middle Texas coast.  Surface reports and radar estimates indicate totals generally average around an inch across the Hill Country and between 1 and 2 inches across Central Texas.  The highest totals occurred across central Lavaca, eastern Fayette and western Washington Counties, where amounts were generally between 3 and 4 inches.  Across the coastal plains, totals of 2-3 inches were observed along the Interstate 10 corridor.  General totals of 1-2 inches were observed across Wharton and Matagorda Counties.

NWS estimated rain falling between 1 pm Sunday and 1 pm Monday:
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As of early Monday afternoon, the heaviest rains were exiting Southeast Texas and moving into Louisiana .  The rain had come to an end across the Hill Country and was clearing out of Central Texas.  The rain should taper off across the coastal plains region by late afternoon.  Clouds have cleared across the Hill Country and should slowly clear across Central Texas this afternoon.  The coastal plains region will stay cloudy.  Today's temperature is expected to warm to around 70-72 degrees.  The sky will be partly cloudy tonight.  Low temperature Tuesday morning will include the mid and upper 40s across the Hill Country, the low 50s across Central Texas and the upper 50s towards the coast.

Forecast solutions indicate a broad, stable ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere will spread across Texas out of Mexico Tuesday and remain over the area into Friday.  The ridge will cause a pattern of sunny, dry and unseasonably mild weather throughout the week.  The temperature looks to warm into the upper 70s Tuesday, and into the low 80s Wednesday and Thursday.  Low temperatures Wednesday and Thursday mornings will be in the low and mid-50s.

On Friday, a trough of low pressure moving across the Plains states will help push a weak Canadian cold front south across Texas.  With little moisture in place, the front should be dry.  It will bring slightly cooler temperatures for Friday night and Saturday.  Friday's temperature will warm to the mid-70s.  Low temperatures Saturday morning will include the low 40s across the Hill Country, the low and mid-40s across Central Texas and around 50 degrees towards the coast.  Saturday's weather will be sunny with a high temperature in the upper 60s to low 70s.  Partly cloudy and mild weather is forecast Sunday.  Expect a high temperature in the low 70s.

Looking ahead to next week, there will be a slight chance for rain Monday into Tuesday when a weak trough of low pressure moves into Texas out of Mexico.  As of now, rain amounts are not expected to be very heavy.  Dry weather is forecast the second half of next week.  High temperatures are forecast to be mild, with highs in the 70s to low 80s and low temperatures in the 50s to low 60s.

There are  no signs of any arctic air headed towards Texas over the next 2-week period.


Bob     

Update on the Threat for Rain and Thunderstorms Sunday into Monday.
Friday, February 17, 2017 5:34 PM

Here is an update on the pattern of wet weather expected Sunday into early next week.  Friday's forecast data showed some changes compared to previous outlooks; the rain and storms should be moving a bit faster and overall rain totals should be slightly lower.

A large trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere is forecast to track into northwestern Mexico Saturday and push east towards Texas Sunday into Monday.  Ahead of the trough, a large area of Gulf moisture is expected to stream into the eastern half of Texas beginning Sunday night.

As atmospheric moisture levels increase, scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms look to develop across the area Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon.  Meanwhile, an area of thunderstorms is forecast to develop across West Central Texas early Sunday afternoon as the Dry Line begins pushing east out of West Texas.  The area of thunderstorms is then expected to congeal into a large line of rain and thunderstorms that will slowly move across the Hill Country late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening.  The line of storms is forecast to move across the Interstate 35 corridor and Central Texas regions Sunday evening and Sunday night, reaching the middle Texas coast late Sunday night into Monday morning.   Lighter rains and isolated thunderstorms are expected behind the main line of storms Monday morning. The rain is then forecast to diminish from west to east Monday afternoon into Monday evening as drier and more stable air spreads into the area.

With a somewhat faster movement to the rain and storms, total rain amounts are not expected to be quite as heavy as previously forecast.  Updated rainfall forecasts through Tuesday now call for general totals to near 1 inch across the Hill Country, between 1 and 2 inches across Central Texas and near 2 inches across the coastal plains region.

National Weather Service rainfall forecast for the period from 6 pm Friday through 6 pm Wednesday:
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Friday's data continued to indicate that some of the thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and Sunday night may become strong to severe.  Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary severe weather threats.


Sunny and dry weather is forecast next Tuesday through Thursday as a weak ridge of high pressure sets up across Texas.  Expect high temperatures throughout the week in the 70s with low temperatures in the 50s.  A weak cold front looks to move across the area next Friday, bringing slightly cooler air for Friday and Saturday.  Expect high temperatures in the 60s and low temperatures in the 40s behind the cold front.

Have a good weekend.

Bob

Widespread Moderate to Heavy Rain Expected Sunday into Monday.
Thursday, February 16, 2017 5:15 PM

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Forecasters are closely monitoring a trough of low pressure in the eastern Pacific that will be pushing inland along the coast of California Friday.  The trough is forecast to sink south into northern Mexico Sunday and slowly move across Texas Monday through Tuesday.  This path is somewhat similar to the storm system which moved across Texas earlier this week.  However, forecast solutions indicate this time an unusually moist Gulf air mass, more typical of late summer or early fall, will be drawn into the eastern half of Texas in advance of the trough.  Strong atmospheric lift on the leading edge of the trough, combined with the abundant Gulf moisture is expected to cause a very efficient rain process beginning Sunday afternoon, continuing through Monday.  The trough itself will be moving fairly slowly, allowing the efficient rains to persist or possibly train over certain areas for a long period time.

The latest forecasts call for rain and thunderstorms to increase in areal coverage across the region during the day on Sunday.  Moderate to heavy rains are forecast across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Sunday night through about midday Monday, with lighter rains continuing Monday afternoon through about midday Tuesday.  For the coastal plains region, the moderate to heavy rain is forecast to move in early Monday morning and persist throughout the day.  Lighter rains are then expected Monday night through Tuesday.  The rain is forecast to diminish from west to east Tuesday night.  Sunny and dry weather will return Wednesday through Friday.

Forecast solutions call for the highest totals of rain to occur generally along and to the east of the Interstate 35 corridor, with somewhat lower totals occurring across the Hill Country.  Totals of 1-2 inches are forecast across the Hill Country, with totals of 2-4 inches expected for areas along and east of I-35.  Isolated totals to near 6 inches will be possible.

National Weather Service rainfall forecast for the period from 6 pm Thursday through 6 pm Tuesday:
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In addition to the threat for heavy rain, there will also be risk for some of the storms to become strong or severe Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.  Atmospheric parameters are expected to be such that some of the storms could produce large hail and damaging wind gusts.  As of now, the threat for tornadoes is not expected to be all that high.

With the ground still wet from rains earlier this week, much of this additional rain will runoff, leading to possible flash flood threat.

I'll pass along another update on this wet pattern Friday afternoon.

Bob
Chilly Temperatures Observed Thursday Morning
Thursday, February 16, 2017 12:33 PM

It was a cold morning across Central Texas, with most Hill Country locations seeing a light freeze.  A hard freeze was observed for areas north of Lake Buchanan and to the west of Junction.  Across the rest of the region, the temperature stayed above freezing but did fall in the 30s.

According to LCRA's Hydromet, http://hydromet.lcra.org the temperature dipped to the upper 20s to low 30s across most of the Hill Country:

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The lowest gauged temperature was 24 degrees, at a gauge located in northwestern Kimble County, roughly 17 miles northwest of Junction.

Across Central Texas, readings generally dipped to the mid and upper 30s.  In Austin, the low temperature at Camp Mabry was 40 degrees.  At Austin-Bergstrom, the low temperature was 33 degrees.

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Across the middle Texas coast, the temperature generally bottomed out in the low 40s, although a few spots did reach the upper 30s.

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The temperature should be a little warmer tonight.  Low temperatures Friday morning will include the low and mid-40s across the Hill Country, the upper 40s across Central Texas and near 50 degrees across the coastal plains.

Bob

Dry Weather Expected through Late Week. Next Shot at Rain Expected Sunday.
Tuesday, February 14, 2017 5:59 PM

A Pacific storm system tracked across Texas Monday night, bringing a widespread area of rain and thunderstorms.  The highest totals of rain occurred across parts of Llano, Burnet, Gillespie and Blanco Counties in the Texas Hill Country.  Totals here generally ranged between 3 and 4 inches.  Across the rest of the region, totals were generally between 1 and 1.5 inches. Matagorda County along the middle Texas coast once again saw the least amount of rain, with most totals averaging less than an inch.  In Austin, Camp Mabry recorded 0.86 inches of rain and Austin-Bergstrom reported 1.24 inches.

National Weather Service estimated rain falling between 3 pm Monday and 3 pm Tuesday:
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The storms turned strong to severe when they moved across the coastal plains region of the middle and upper Texas coast.  A very moist and unstable atmosphere near the coast allowed for the development of strong downburst winds and a few brief tornadoes.  The National Weather Service confirms there were tornadoes near Van Vleck in Matagorda County, near Stafford and Rosenberg in Fort Bend County and also near Wharton.

Clouds and cool air have been spreading into Texas on the backside of the Pacific storm system.  These clouds will slowly clear form west to east late Tuesday night as the storm system moves toward the lower Mississippi Valley region.  Temperatures will be quite cool.  Low temperatures Wednesday morning will include the mid-30s across the Hill Country, around 40-42 degrees across Central Texas and the middle 40s towards the coast.  Do note that some of the traditional cooler valleys of the Hill Country could see a light freeze overnight.

A sunny and dry pattern is expected to develop Wednesday into Thursday in the wake of the departing storm system.  Canadian high pressure will keep temperatures on the cool side Wednesday, with high temperatures generally near 60 degrees.  Readings should warm to around 68-70 degrees on Thursday. Low temperatures Thursday morning will include the middle 30s across the Hill Country, the upper 30s across Central Texas and around 40 degrees towards the coast.  Low temperatures Friday morning look to be in the low and mid-40s.

Forecast solutions do show a weak trough of low pressure tracking east across Texas Friday, but with so little moisture in place, no rain is forecast across the Hill Country or Central Texas regions.  Just a slight chance for rain is forecast towards the coast.  Rain amounts, if any, should average less than a quarter inch.  Under a partly cloudy sky, the high temperature Friday will be in the low 70s.  Sunny and warm weather is forecast Saturday as the area trough of low pressure departs to the northeast.  Expect a high temperature near 80 degrees.

The weather pattern is forecast to turn unsettled beginning next Sunday when another area of low pressure from the Pacific tracks begins tracking east across northern Mexico.  Forecast solutions call for the low to slowly push east across Texas net Monday and Tuesday, finally exiting to the east on Wednesday.  Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop in advance of the low pressure system Sunday, with rain and thunderstorms increasing in coverage Monday into Tuesday.  The rain and storms should exit to the east next Wednesday.  Rainfall forecasts suggest widespread totals of 1-1.5 inches over the 3-day period.  High temperatures Sunday through Tuesday will be in the mid-70s, with low temperatures in the low and mid-60s.

Dry and warm weather is forecast next Wednesday through Friday, with daily high temperatures in the 70s.  Long-range forecast suggest these mild and dry conditions will likely continue through the end of the month.

Bob

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