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What's in store for hurricane season?

 

The National Hurricane Center released its outlook for the upcoming hurricane season. LCRA Chief Meteorologist Bob Rose explains how the development of La Niña could influence the ​weather.

Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

Weather Staying Hot and Dry through Late Next Week
Friday, July 1, 2016 4:00 PM

Quiet, dry and hot weather conditions will be in place across the region over the holiday weekend.  Friday morning's analysis showed a broad ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere stretching from northern Mexico to the Lower Mississippi Valley.  The ridge is currently centered over Far West Texas but is forecast to slowly shift to North Texas and the southern Plains states over the weekend.  The ridge will cause dry, stable and hot weather conditions across Texas this weekend, continuing through late next week.  The only exception to the dry pattern will be along the middle Texas coast where a few isolated rain showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and again Saturday afternoon.  Spotty totals to around a half inch will be possible both days.  Dry conditions are forecast to take hold across the coastal region Monday and remain in place through late next week.  The ridge is forecast to remain across Texas all of next week, continuing into next weekend.

With the center of the ridge moving closer to Central Texas, the temperature is expected grow hotter over the next few days.  Today's temperature is forecast to reach the middle 90s.  Mid to upper 90s are forecast Saturday and upper 90s are forecast Sunday and Monday.   High temperatures Tuesday through Friday are forecast to generally be around 98-100 degrees.  Taking into account the high relative humidity levels, heat index readings are forecast to top out around 105 degrees beginning Sunday, continuing through most of next week.  Low temperatures are forecast to be in the mid 70s Saturday and Sunday mornings, then rise to the upper 70s beginning Monday morning.

Light southerly winds at 5-10 mph are forecast today.  Wind speeds do look to increase to a range of 10-15 mph Saturday afternoon due to a tightening pressure gradient.  That south breeze at 10-15 mph is forecast to continue through at least the middle of next week.

Looking out longer term, today's long-range solutions indicate there will be very few changes in the weather pattern the second week of July as the high pressure ridge continues in place across the southern Plains states.  A weak disturbance may cause a few spotty showers next Sunday or Monday.  Otherwise, hot and dry weather conditions are forecast, with high temperatures staying around 98-100 degrees.

Update on the Tropical Atlantic
Weather conditions across the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico are quiet and there are no systems which pose a threat for tropical development over the next 5 days.

June Weather Review
June rainfall was generally 1 to 2 inches below normal across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions.  June was the first month since February to have below normal rainfall.  This transition to below normal rainfall coincided with the demise of El Nino which occurred in early June.  The Pacific is currently neutral but is expected to transition to La Nina this fall.  La Nina often causes a drier than normal weather pattern across Texas during the fall and winter months.  Rainfall was actually 1 to 2 inches above normal across the middle Texas coast.  However, a small area over southern Matagorda County recorded over 10 inches of rain.  LCRA's automated gauge located 1 mile south of Matagorda recorded 11.6 inches for the month.

June rainfall departure from normal (courtesy National Weather Service)
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In Austin, Camp Mabry recorded 2.61 inches, which was 1.72 inches below normal.  Austin-Bergstrom reported 2.63 inches, which was 2.00 inches below normal.

The temperature in June averaged close to 1 degree above normal at most locations.

DroughtOutlook.png 

I hope everyone has a safe and enjoyable holiday weekend.  If you're going to be outside, be sure to keep yourself well hydrated and take occasional breaks from the hot sun.

Bob

Previous Blog Entries

Hot and Getting Hotter. Pushing Triple Digits Next Week
Thursday, June 30, 2016 6:17 PM

Fairly typical late June weather continued across Central Texas on Thursday.  The weak cold front which slipped south out of North Texas Wednesday remained stationary near the Interstate 10 corridor.  Drier and just slightly cooler air was noted north of the cold front.  Cooler is a relative term.  Temperatures north of the front still warmed into the mid 90s, while south of the front, readings reached the low 100s over southwest Texas.  Today's analysis showed the high pressure ridge was centered over the southwestern US and a deep trough of low pressure continued over the eastern US.

Thursday's forecast data indicates the current pattern will continue into Friday into Saturday.  Sunny and dry weather is forecast with high temperatures staying mostly in the middle 90s.  The high pressure ridge over the southwestern US is forecast to shift east across Texas beginning Sunday.  The strengthening ridge is expected to push temperatures to the mid to upper 90s Sunday and solidly into the upper 90s Monday.

The ridge is forecast to remain centered across Texas next week, continuing into next weekend.  The latest forecasts indicate the ridge may not be quite as strong as previously forecast.  Nevertheless, it will still be sunny and quite hot throughout the week with daily high temperatures near 98-100 degrees.

Some slight changes in the weather pattern are forecast to take place next weekend when the ridge of high pressure over Texas shifts west, allowing another trough of low pressure to push south into the Great Lakes region.  This trough is expected to push a cold front south to around the Red River Valley sometime around next Sunday or Monday.  While the front is not expected to come as far south as the current cold front, it may eventually bring a few spotty rain showers to Central Texas.  Significant rain is not expected.  With the ridge shifting west next weekend, the temperature is expected to fall a couple of degrees.  This is shaping up to be just a temporary break in the pattern as the ridge is forecast to build back across Texas the second week of July, causing more dry weather and possible triple-digit temperatures.

The National Weather Service's 7-day rainfall forecast calls for rain in all directions around Central Texas, but no rain across Central Texas.  This unusual pattern is the result of our friend, the ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere, parked across Central Texas:

Rain7.png

The ridge is unfortunately going to be here for a while.  Welcome to summer.

Bob

Summer is Settling in. Hot and Dry Weather Expected for the Next Couple of Weeks.
Wednesday, June 29, 2016 6:15 PM

A more tranquil weather pattern developed Wednesday in the wake of Tuesday's wet and stormy pattern.  Tuesday's storms were the result of moist and unstable air converging ahead of an unusual cold front pushing south out of Oklahoma.  The storms produced spotty totals of 0.25-0.50 inch along with a few isolated totals of 1 to 3 inches.  According to LCRA's Hydromet, the highest gauged total was 3.41 inches at a location in northwestern Travis County, southwest of Cedar Park.  Unfortunately, many locations across the Hill Country didn't receive any rain.

Wednesday's afternoon's analysis indicated that unusual cold front had made it all the way into Central Texas.  As of late afternoon, the front was nearly stationary along a line stretching from roughly Cotulla to Gonzales to Huntsville.  Drier and just slightly cooler air was noted to the north of the cold front.  The front was driven south by a deep trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere stretching from eastern Canada to the southeastern US.

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It's rare to see this deep of a trough in late June and it's just as rare to see a cold front in Central Texas at this time of the year.  The trough over the eastern US is forecast to weaken and shift east over the next couple of days.  At the same time, the cold front over Texas will lift north as a warm front and dissipate.

The focus of Central Texas weather over the next few days will be a large ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere currently located over the western US.  The ridge is forecast to flatten and become centered over the southern US over the next couple of days.  The ridge will cause a sunny, dry and hot weather pattern across all of Texas.  High temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in the mid to upper 90s.  Readings are forecast to trend upward to the upper 90s Saturday through Monday.  Low temperatures will be in the mid 70s.

Looking ahead to next week, forecast model data calls for the ridge of high pressure to remain over the southern US.  Fortunately, the center of the ridge is forecast to remain just east of Texas.  This should limit daily high temperatures to around 98-100 degrees.  As the ground continues to dry out, we may see a trend toward 100 degrees by late week.

Longer-range forecast solutions show little to no change in the very hot and dry pattern during the second week of July as the ridge of high pressure remains entrenched across Texas.  There are some indications the center of the ridge will move over Texas at that time, causing the development of numerous 100-degree plus temperatures.

As of now, it appears to me the month of July will be very hot with numerous 100 degree temperatures and very little rainfall.  Get ready for a long stretch of hot and dry weather.

Bob
Strong Storms Possible Tuesday Afternoon and Evening
Tuesday, June 28, 2016 10:49 AM

Updated forecast data is now calling for a higher probability for rain and thunderstorm development across the entire region this afternoon and evening.  A weak cold front currently pushing south across Oklahoma is forecast to reach northern Texas this afternoon.  Out ahead of the cold front, the lower atmosphere has become quite moist and there are a couple of old outflow boundaries in place left over from thunderstorms to our north Monday evening.  High-resolution forecasts indicate a broad east-west area of rain and thunderstorms will develop along these outflow boundaries around midday across the northern Hill Country and the northern counties of Central Texas.  The activity is forecast to slowly spread south through the afternoon and evening hours.   The probability for rain and thunderstorms will be 50 percent across the entire region.  Today's temperature is expected to warm to the low and mid 90s.

While widespread severe weather is not expected, today's atmosphere is structured in such a way that some of the storms may produce very strong downburst winds of 40-50 mph.  Dangerous cloud to ground lightning will also be possible.

Rain totals are forecast to generally average between 0.25 and 0.5 inch.  Isolated totals to around 1 inch will be possible.

NWS rainfall forecast for the period 7 am Tuesday through 7 am Wednesday:

Rain6.png 
The chance for rain and storms will decrease around sunset as the temperature begins to cool.

The weak cold front is forecast to pull up stationary across Central Texas Wednesday.  There will be a slight chance for additional rain showers and thunderstorms for areas along and south of the front (roughly US Highway 290).  Additional totals of 0.25-0.5 inch will be possible.  Sunny and generally dry is forecast across the northern counties of the Hill Country and Central Texas.

Sunny, dry and hot weather is forecast Thursday, continuing through the holiday weekend as a ridge of high pressure sets up across Texas.  The temperature looks to warm to the upper 90s this weekend and to near 98-100 degrees next week.

If you are involved in outdoor activities this afternoon and evening, please be weather-aware and stay up to date on weather developments.  Remember, if thunder roars, go indoors.

Bob

A Small Chance for Rain Forecast Tuesday. Otherwise, a Dry and Hot Pattern Settling In.
Monday, June 27, 2016 5:18 PM

A small area of low pressure tracked across South Texas over the weekend, producing scattered light rain showers and thunderstorms.  Most totals were quite low, although a couple of isolated 1-inch totals did occur across parts of Fayette and Lavaca Counties.  This afternoon, that low pressure system was located over the Pecos Valley of West Texas.  Overnight, the low caused a large area of 1-4 inch rain totals across western Texas, generally between Del  Rio and San Angelo.  A portion of this rain affected the western Hill Country watershed counties of Schleicher and Sutton.  An LCRA Hydromet gauge located 2 miles east of El Dorado, in Schleicher County, recorded 4.75 inches of rain since late yesterday afternoon.  Late this afternoon, the rain associated with the upper low had exited the watershed and will continue to spread across Far West Texas overnight.


 

NWS estimated rain falling between 4 pm Sunday and 4 pm Monday:
Tom2.png 
Today's weather maps showed a broad ridge of high pressure in place over the area, causing very stable conditions.  A couple of isolated rain showers will be possible across the coastal plains region this afternoon, but no significant rain is expected.  Any rain which happens to develop should diminish around sunset.  The wind will be light due to a weak pressure gradient.  Expect a light southeast wind at 5-10 mph this afternoon and tonight.

A small break from the hot and dry pattern is forecast Tuesday into Wednesday as the high pressure ridge temporarily shifts west, allowing a weak cold front to sink into North Texas out of the Plains states.  Gulf moisture will spread north across the region Tuesday afternoon ahead of the cold front.  The increased moisture and weaker ridge is expected to result in the development of scattered rain showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening.  The probability for rain will be near 30-40 percent at most locations.  Rainfall is forecast to average around a quarter inch, with a couple of isolated totals to near 1 inch possible.  Many locations will likely still stay dry.  Due to the weaker ridge, high temperatures Tuesday will be in the low and middle 90s.  The sky will be partly cloudy throughout the day.

A few isolated rain showers will still be possible Wednesday as Tuesday's weak cold front slowly dissipates across Central Texas.  Rainfall from the spotty showers is forecast to average less than a quarter inch.  The high temperature Wednesday is forecast to be in the mid 90s.  A light east and southeasterly wind at 5-10 mph is forecast.

A mostly sunny, dry and hot weather pattern will resume Thursday as the weak cold front dissipates and high pressure to our west begins building back across the state.  Today's forecast data calls for the center of the high pressure ridge to set up across Central and Southeast Texas beginning Friday and remain over the same general area through at least the middle of next week.  For our region, this means a sunny and dry weather pattern along with rising temperatures.

High temperatures Thursday and Friday look to be in the mid to upper 90s.  Readings are forecast to be in the upper 90s Saturday through Monday.  High temperatures next Tuesday through Friday are forecast to be near 98-100 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas.  Confidence is growing that the first triple-digit readings of the summer will begin showing up during the early to middle parts of next week.  As of now, no significant break from the dry and hot pattern is expected anytime over the next two week period.

By the way, the latest 30-year average date for the first 100-degree temperature at Austin-Camp Mabry is July 12th.  The average first date at Austin-Bergstrom is July 2nd. 

Topical Weather Update
Weather conditions are currently very quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.  Tropical development is not expected for at least the next 5 days.


Bob

A Few Isolated Showers Possible this Weekend. Otherwise, the Heat Continues.
Thursday, June 23, 2016 6:21 PM

Few changes showed up in today's suite of computer forecast solutions.  We have reached that point of summer where the weather pattern typically doesn't show all that much day to day change.  A stable ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere continues to cover the southern US.  Today's analysis showed the ridge centered over northeast Texas.  With the ridge in place, very summer-like weather conditions persist across Central Texas and the Hill Country.

While the overall summer weather pattern will hold in place, some small changes in the weather do look to take place Friday, continuing through Sunday.  These changes are the result of a small area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere that will be tracking northwest across the Rio Grande Plains out of the western Gulf of Mexico.  A satellite image from late Thursday afternoon showed a small area of clouds located just off the lower Texas coast.  These clouds marked the northeastern side of the upper low.

JulyT.png 
The low is forecast to slowly track northeast over the Rio Grande plains Friday through Sunday.  This low will help pull tropical moisture inland, resulting in the development of isolated to scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms.  The most favorable area for rain will be across the coastal plains, where the probability for rain all three days will be near 30-40 percent.  Further inland, the chance for rain will only be near 20 percent.  Rain amounts Friday through Sunday are forecast to be quite low.  Three-day totals across the coastal plains region are forecast to total around a half inch while amounts at most other locations are forecast to total less than a quarter inch.

NWS rainfall forecast for the period from 7 pm Thursday through 7 pm Sunday:
Rain5.png


The sky is forecast to be partly cloudy Friday through Sunday and high temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s.

Mostly sunny and dry weather is forecast next Monday and Tuesday as moisture from the upper low shifts west of the region.  High temperatures look to hold in the mid 90s.

Forecast solutions indicate the weather pattern has the potential to become slightly unsettled the latter half of next week, continuing through next weekend.  The ridge of high pressure over the southern US is forecast to weaken, with the center of the ridge relocating to the southern Rockies.  At the same time, a deep trough of low pressure is forecast to develop over the northeastern US and the Mid Atlantic.  The deep trough (for summer standards) is expected to push a cold front as far south as the Red River the latter part of next week.  The combination of a weaker ridge and moisture being drawn north toward the front is expected to result in a slight chance for afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms beginning next Wednesday, continuing through the Fourth of July weekend.  As of now, rainfall looks to be spotty and light.  No significant change in the temperature is expected.  High temperatures should continue in the mid 90s into early July.

Tropical Weather Update
The visible satellite image pasted toward the top shows an area of  clouds near the Yucatan Peninsula that are associated with a strong tropical wave and a broad area of low pressure.  This system is forecast to emerge over the Bay of Campeche Friday and environmental conditions appear favorable for slow tropical development.  However, this potential for development will be short as the system will likely move inland across Mexico on Saturday.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate the area of low pressure Friday afternoon, if necessary.

Bob

Hot and Mostly Dry Weather Will Persist through Late Next Week.
Wednesday, June 22, 2016 5:55 PM

As mentioned Monday, astronomical summer has begun across the Northern Hemisphere and today's weather maps confirm a very summer like pattern is in place.  Wednesday morning's analysis of the upper atmosphere up around 18,000 feet showed the Jet Stream was flowing west to east near the Canadian border while a broad ridge of high pressure covered the southern US.  This is a fairly typical pattern for summer; one that will be quite common over the next 2 to 3 months.

Bob2.png 
The ridge was centered over north central Texas, between Abilene and Fort Worth.  Sinking air associated with the ridge was causing a very stable atmosphere and hot temperatures across all of the south central and southeastern US.  Despite the stable atmosphere, a few spotty rain showers did manage to develop across the middle and upper Texas coast Wednesday afternoon in association with the Sea Breeze.  While the temperature has been hot, conditions fortunately aren't quite yet favorable to produce triple-digit heat across Central Texas.

Wednesday's forecast solutions indicate there will be little change in the weather pattern Thursday through Friday.  The ridge of high pressure will remain anchored across the region, producing more sunny, dry and hot weather.  A few spotty rain showers will be possible across the coastal plains region both afternoons, but totals should be quite low.  High temperatures both days will be in the mid 90s.  A slightly stronger pressure gradient will lead to a southerly breeze at 10-15 mph throughout the period.

Some slight changes in the weather pattern are forecast to take place Saturday through Monday when the center of the high pressure ridge shifts east.  At the same time, a weak, non-tropical area of low pressure, currently located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, is forecast to track inland across South Texas beginning Saturday.  The low is expected to push an area of tropical moisture inland and this should result in the development of some isolated to scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.  The highest probability for rain will be across the coastal plains region at 30-40 percent.  The chance for rain further inland will only be 20 percent.  3-day rain totals are forecast to average less around a half inch across the coastal plains and around a quarter inch at most other locations.  Afternoon temperatures should lower a couple of degrees due to clouds and increased moisture.  Highs should generally be in the low to mid 90s.

The low pressure system is forecast to push east into Mexico early next week, taking the moisture with it.  At the same time, the center of the high pressure ridge will shift from the southeastern to the southwestern US.  For Central Texas, generally dry and hot weather is forecast Tuesday through Thursday.  A few spotty showers will likely continue across the coastal plains but significant rain is not forecast.  High temperatures are expected to stay in the mid 90s.

Additional changes in the weather pattern are forecast to take place next Friday into next weekend when a large trough of low pressure develops over the northeastern US.  The trough is expected to push a cold front southwest towards Texas next weekend.  While I don't expect cooler temperatures, the front may help kick off a few scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the region.  As of now, rain amounts should be low.  High temperatures look to stay in the mid 90s next weekend, continuing through the Fourth of July.

Bob

Spotty Showers Possible Tuesday. Otherwise, Few Changes in the Outlook.
Monday, June 20, 2016 5:30 PM

Very little change in the weather is expected this week as astronomical summer officially begins.   Over the weekend, the center of the high pressure ridge shifted from Central Texas to the Desert Southwest.  This allowed an area of tropical moisture to spread across the southern half of Texas out of the Gulf of Mexico.  With warming afternoon temperatures, the increased moisture led to the development of spotty rain showers and isolated thunderstorms from the coastal plains to the Hill Country Sunday and again on Monday.  Monday's rain activity should dissipate around sunset as temperatures cool.  Rain amounts will generally average between 0.25 and 0.5 inch.  However the majority of the area will likely stay dry.

Monday's analysis of the upper atmosphere showed the center of the high pressure remains over the southwestern US, with a small weakness in the height field lingering across South Texas:

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A similar weather pattern is forecast Tuesday as the center of the ridge continues up the north and west of our region.  Tropical moisture spreading inland will cause the development of a few spotty rain showers and isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening.  The highest probability for rain will be across the coastal plains region at 40 percent.  Just a slight chance (20 percent) for rain is forecast across the rest of the region.  Most areas will stay dry.  Tuesday's sky will be mostly sunny and high temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s.  Expect a light southeast wind at 5-10 mph.

The center of the ridge of high pressure is forecast to shift south towards Texas beginning Wednesday, continuing through Friday.  The ridge is expected to shut off the feed of moisture flowing inland from the Gulf, causing the chance for rain to diminish.  A couple of stray showers will still be possible across the coastal plains region but most areas will be dry.  Expect a mostly sunny sky and hot temperatures.  Daytime highs will generally be in the mid 90s.

A slight chance for rain will return to the forecast Saturday through Monday as a trough of low pressure slowly tracks inland across South Texas out of the western Gulf of Mexico.  Similar to the current pattern, the increased moisture will lead to a slight chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.  However, rain amounts are expected to be less than a half inch.  Otherwise, weather conditions will continue partly cloudy and hot with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s.

Generally dry weather looks to return next Tuesday and Wednesday.  Long-range forecast data indicates another small chance for rain will occur the latter part of next week as the ridge over Texas weakens and a weak cold front sags south out of the Plains states.  This may lead to another slight chance for rain.  No significant change in the temperature is forecast late next week or next weekend.

Tropical Weather Update
The area of disturbed weather over the southern Caribbean Sea late last week tracked west of the weekend, reaching the southern Bay of Campeche on Sunday.  Environmental conditions became quite favorable late Sunday into Monday and the system strengthened into the fourth tropical cyclone of the 2016 Atlantic season.  Tropical storm Danielle was centered late Monday afternoon just off the eastern coast of Mexico, about 30 miles east-northeast of Tuxpan.  Danielle is moving to the west-northwest at near 7 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.  On the track, Danielle is expected to move inland over eastern Mexico tonight.  Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph and little change in strength is forecast before Danielle makes landfall Monday night.
 
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                                                                                 NOAA-NASA GOES Project

 
Once inland, the moisture associated with Danielle is forecast to stay well to the south of Texas.  Aside from causing some increased wave action along the Texas coast, Danielle should have no effect on Texas weather over the next few days as it dissipates over the mountains of Mexico.

A Rare Coincidence
Monday evening there will be a once in a generation pairing: the start of summer and the emergence of the full "Strawberry Moon".  This rare coming together hasn't occurred since 1967.  By the way, the Strawberry Moon's name originates from the collection of strawberries by Native American Algonquin tribes during June.  The June full moon is also sometimes referred to as the "Honey Moon". 

Bob

A Slight Chance for Rain Sunday into Monday. Dry and Hot Weather Resumes Tuesday.
Friday, June 17, 2016 4:09 PM

Very summer-like weather conditions will be in place across Central Texas for the next several days.  This morning's analysis showed a large, stable ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere stretching from Central Mexico to south central Canada.  The ridge was centered over northern Mexico and the southern half of Texas and was producing dry and quiet weather.  Conditions this afternoon through Saturday will be very similar to the weather we've seen over the past few days.  The sky will sunny and the temperature will be quite hot.  Highs both days will generally be in the mid to upper 90s.  These hot temperatures combined with high relative humidity levels will produce heat index, or feel like readings, that are a little higher than the actual air temperature.  

Some changes in the weather pattern are forecast to take place Sunday into Monday as the upper ridge temporarily shifts to the Desert Southwest and the Plains states.  This will allow a trough of low pressure from the Tennessee Valley to move southwest and track across the southern half of Texas.  Moisture will spread inland from the Gulf of Mexico in advance of the trough late Saturday night into Sunday morning.  Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the coastal plains region Sunday morning, with some of the activity spreading north across Central Texas and the eastern Hill Country Sunday afternoon and evening.  The probability for rain Sunday will be near 50 percent across the coastal plains region and near 30 percent across Central Texas.  The probability for rain Monday will be near 40 percent across the coastal plains but only near 20 percent further inland.  Rainfall is not expected to be very heavy.  2-day totals across Colorado, Wharton and Matagorda Counties are forecast to total between 0.25 and 0.5 inch.  Totals of 0.25 inch or less are forecast at most other locations.

NWS rainfall forecast for the period from 7 pm Friday through 7 pm Wednesday 
Rain11.png
 
The temperature is expected to come down a couple of degrees Sunday and Monday due to the added moisture and weaker ridge.  High temperatures both days are forecast to be in the low to mid 90s.  Low temperatures will be in the low 70s.

The weather pattern looks to trend back to dry and hot next Tuesday through Saturday as the troughs exits west and the ridge over the Plains states shifts south and becomes centered across Texas.  Sunny, dry and hot weather is forecast.  Daily high temperatures look to be in the mid 90s Tuesday and Wednesday and in the upper 90s late week.  Long-range forecasts hint at a slight chance to a chance for rain possibly returning to our region the last week of June.

Update on the Tropics
Satellite images indicate the area of disorganized clouds and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave near the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico have decreased.  Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur due to the system's proximity to land.  The system is forecast to move westward or west- northwestward at about 10 mph and emerge over the Bay of Campeche and southwestern Gulf of Mexico by about Sunday or Monday.  National Hurricane Center Forecasters are giving this system a 20 percent chance for tropical development over the next 5 days.  Elsewhere, conditions are quiet and tropical storm development is not expected through the weekend.

In the eastern tropical Pacific, shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula remains disorganized. This system has begun to move into a less favorable environment and the chances of tropical cyclone formation are decreasing. Conditions will become even less favorable for development by Friday night as the system moves toward the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph.  National Hurricane Center forecasters are giving this system a 40 percent chance for tropical development over the next 5 days.

MarAprAnom.png                                                                                     NOAA-NASA GOES Project

Summer Solstice

Summer officially arrives Monday, June 20th at 5:34 pm CDT.  On Monday, the sun will reach its highest point in sky and we will experience the greatest amount of daylight.  In Austin, Monday's daylength will be 14 hours and 6 minutes.  Over the next couple of weeks, our region will be experiencing the earliest sunrises and the latest sunsets of the entire year.  Although the solstice is occurring Monday, the hottest temperatures of summer typically don't occur until the first or second week of August.

Have a good weekend and stay cool.

Bob

Satellite Image Shows Texas Looking Green
Thursday, June 16, 2016 6:27 PM

 

With the weather pattern quiet, I wanted to show a somewhat different type of satellite image looking focusing across Central and South Texas.  This image, taken early Thursday afternoon, comes from the Aqua polar orbiting satellite traveling about 440 miles above Earth's surface.
   
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                                                                  Courtesy NASA Rapid Response

 
The image captures a very benign weather pattern, with just some fair weather cumulus clouds covering the coastal plains.  This is true color image and what is so striking to me is how green the landscape appears across all of Texas and Louisiana.  With above normal rainfall this spring, the trees, plants and grasses have all responded positively.  From this height and angle, everything appears lush and green.  Of course, if the current hot and dry weather pattern continues for the next few weeks, this lush green color will likely fade.  But for the time being, things certainly look nice. 

One feature showing up prominently in this image is the Balcones Escarpment and the Interstate 35 corridor.  The Balcones Escarpment is a geologic fault zone several miles wide separating the Edwards Plateau from the Coastal Plains.  Interstate 35 parallels the Escarpment and the combination of development along Interstate 35 and the abrupt change in topography associated with the feature make it very prominent.  Some large lakes in East and North Texas can be seen as well.

A Little Rain Possible Sunday into Monday
Tropical moisture and a weak trough of low pressure moving into the region Sunday into Monday are expected to cause scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region.  Heavy rain is not expected and the chance for rain will only be near 30 percent.

The Thursday afternoon National Weather Service 5-day rainfall forecast calls for totals of around a quarter inch or less across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and between 0.25 and 0.5 inch across the middle Texas coast.

NWS rainfall forecast for the period 7 pm Thursday through 7 pm Tuesday:
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I'll have a more detailed update Friday.

Bob

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