Our region is currently in a wet and unsettled weather pattern looks to continue through late week.
At midday, no rain was occurring across the Hill Country or Central Texas regions while the last of the rain from overnight was exiting the middle Texas coast. No additional rain is forecast this afternoon, although the sky will stay mostly cloudy. Today's temperature will generally warm to the low 80s. This morning's forecast data indicates an area of rain and thunderstorms will develop over northeastern Mexico this late afternoon ahead of a weak disturbance. This area of rain is forecast to push east into West and Southwest Texas this evening. Should these storms maintain their organization, they look to spread into the Hill Country and Central Texas regions around midnight. The rain should diminish by daybreak Tuesday morning. Rain amounts are forecast to total around a quarter of an inch.
A brief break from the rain is forecast to develop Tuesday morning into the early afternoon. However, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region Tuesday afternoon as the atmosphere grows increasingly moist and unstable ahead of a cold front pushing south out of Oklahoma. Some of these storms may be severe, producing large hail and damaging winds. Forecast solutions call for the development of a large complex of thunderstorms over the area between San Angelo and Stephenville late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. This area of rain and storms is forecast to slowly sink southeast into the Hill Country, parts of Central Texas and the middle Texas coast Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Once again, some of these storms may also be severe. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor under an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms through 7 am Wednesday. An enhanced risk means numerous, persistent severe storms will be possible. Locally heavy rain will also be possible with this complex of storms as it slowly moves to the southeast. The rain is forecast taper off across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Wednesday morning and across the coastal plains region Wednesday afternoon. Rainfall between Tuesday morning and Wednesday afternoon is forecast to generally total between 1 and 2 inches.
Just a slight chance for rain and thunderstorms is forecast Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening as the atmosphere briefly becomes more stable. Wednesday's temperature will warm to the upper 70s.
That period of quiet weather will be very short-lived as another chance for rain and thunderstorms is forecast to develop after midnight Wednesday night, continuing through Thursday night, when a large trough of low pressure tracks northeast out of Mexico. Gulf moisture will increase ahead of the trough, leading to the development of widespread rain showers and thunderstorms. Severe storms don't appear as likely with this round of rain as it does Tuesday into Tuesday night. However, moderate to occasionally heavy rain is expected. The rain is forecast to taper off from west to east beginning late Thursday evening. Rain totals between late Wednesday night and Thursday evening are forecast to generally total between 1 and 2 inches, with isolated heavier totals. Thursday's high temperature is forecast to be in the mid 70s.
Significant totals of rain are forecast across the region this week. The National Weather Service's 5-day rainfall forecast calls for widespread totals of 2-3 inches, with some pockets of 3-5 inch totals:NWS rainfall forecast for the period from 7 am Monday through 7 am Saturday
A more stable weather pattern is forecast to develop Friday and into the weekend as a weak ridge of high pressure begins to set up across the south central US. A couple of isolated rain showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and evening, but most locations should remain dry. High temperatures Friday will be in the low 80s, warming to the mid 80s Saturday and Sunday.
Looking ahead to next week, weather conditions are forecast to be partly cloudy, warm and humid. There will be a slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm each day throughout the week. However, widespread or heavy rain is not expected. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s through the first half of the week, rising to around 88-90 degrees for the second half of the week.