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Will 2017 be the warmest year on record?​​

Could a warm winter and spring be signs of what’s to come? LCRA Chief Meteorologist Bob Rose talks about the records we’ve already broken in 2017, and what could be in store this summer.​​​

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Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

Record-Breaking Cool Temperatures and Monitoring What Could be a Wet Memorial Day Weekend.
Wednesday, May 24, 2017 6:12 PM

Wednesday morning's temperatures were unusually cool for late May. Thanks to a bubble of Canadian high pressure settling across the state, temperatures dropped to the 40s and 50s.  According to LCRA's Hydromet, the lowest observed temperature was 43 degrees at 5 different Hill Country locations.  Austin-Bergstrom Airport recorded a low temperature of 54 degrees, which broke the previous record of 58 degrees set in 2001 and 1967.  Austin-Camp Mabry recorded a low temperature of 56 degrees.

Hill Country low temperatures Wednesday morning:
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Central Texas low temperatures Wednesday morning:
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Forecasters continue to monitor weather developments expected this holiday weekend and early next week.  The combination of a stalled out cold front, abundant Gulf moisture and a series of weak atmospheric disturbances is expected to cause a 50-60 percent chance for rain Sunday through next Tuesday.

The National Weather Service is calling for 3-day totals of 2-3 inches across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, with somewhat lower amounts to the south.

NWS rainfall forecast for the period 7 pm Wednesday through 7 pm next Wednesday:
Rain11.png

I'll have more details on the approaching wet pattern in Thursday's report.

Bob

Previous Blog Entries

A Chance for Thunderstorms this Afternoon. Dry and Sunny Wednesday through Saturday.
Tuesday, May 23, 2017 2:04 PM

There will be a chance for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms across the region this afternoon and evening as a trough of low pressure tracks southeast out of Northwest Texas.  Conditions appear favorable for some of the thunderstorms to become strong to severe, with large hail and damaging winds being the primary severe weather threats.  The most favorable  location for severe storms is forecast to generally be from the Austin/San Antonio area, southeast to the coast.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed this area under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms through tonight.  Much of the Hill Country has been placed under a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms.

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Early this afternoon, an area of rain shows and scattered thunderstorms was developing across the Concho Valley and the northern Hill Country.  This activity is forecast to spread southeast across the Hill Country over the course of the afternoon.  The activity should reach the Austin/Central Texas region late this afternoon and early evening, spreading across the coastal plains region this evening.  Meanwhile, a Canadian cold front is also sinking southeast out of northwest Texas.  At 2 pm, the cold front stretched from Dallas to Brownwood, Sonora and Fort Stockton.  The front is forecast to push south across the region this afternoon, moving into the Gulf of Mexico by late evening.  Rain amounts from this afternoon's activity should average around a half inch, with isolated totals to near 1 inch possible.  The chance for rain should end shortly behind the cold front. Ahead of the cold front, expect a partly cloudy sky and mild temperatures. Readings should warm close to 80 degrees across Central Texas and into the middle 80s across the middle Texas coast.

Breezy, dry and cooler weather conditions are forecast tonight behind the cold front.  Expect a northwesterly wind at 10-15 mph.  Lows Wednesday morning are forecast to be near 50-52 degrees across the Hill Country, in the mid-50s across Central Texas and in the upper 50s across the coastal plains.  

A sunny and dry weather pattern is forecast Wednesday through Saturday as a stable ridge of high pressure spreads over Texas out of the Desert Southwest.  However, there will be a definite warming trend over the next few days.  The temperature is forecast to reach the middle 80s Wednesday, warming to around 88-90 degrees Thursday.  High temperatures Friday and Saturday are forecast to be in the low 90s.  Parts of the Hill Country could even see middle 90s.  Low temperatures Thursday morning will be in the low 60s.  Lows Friday and Saturday mornings will be in the low and mid-70s.

A chance for rain showers and thunderstorms looks to develop Sunday and Memorial Day when a weak cold front sinks south out of North Texas.  At the same time, a series of weak low pressure troughs are forecast to begin moving east into Texas out of Mexico.  Both of these features will combine to produce a mostly cloudy sky and a 40-50 percent chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms on both Sunday and Monday.  Forecast data indicates much of the region could see rain totals of 1-2 inches over the 2-day period.  High temperatures both days are forecast to be near 88-90 degrees.

Long-range forecasts suggest there will be a continued chance for rain showers and thunderstorms next Tuesday through Thursday as additional waves of low pressure track east out of Mexico.  High temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to upper 80s.

Last of the Cool Temperatures?
Temperatures tonight into Wednesday morning are forecast to fall into the 50s across the entire region.  These readings will be well below normal for this time of the year.  Unfortunately, the cool air will be short-lived, being replaced 60-degree temperatures Wednesday night.  Looking at the long-range forecast data, the 50-degree temperatures Tuesday night may be the last of the cool readings our region we see until next September or October.  The long-range data doesn't call for any more 50-degree temperatures this month as summer begins to show its influence.  And getting 50-degree temperatures in the month of June would be extremely rare.  So enjoy this last gasp of pleasant spring temperatures tonight!

Bob

A Cloudy and Wet Weekend with More Rain Showers Expected Monday and Tuesday.
Friday, May 19, 2017 2:15 PM

An isolated severe thunderstorm developed late Thursday afternoon over the northern Hill Country.  This storm tracked to the northwest of Brownwood Thursday evening, producing very large hail and intense rainfall.  An LCRA Hydromet gauge located at Lake Coleman in northern Coleman County, recorded 4.39 inches of rain.  A second LCRA gauge located near Cross Plains, in southern Callahan County, recorded 3.28 inches.  The rest of the region stayed dry Thursday evening through Friday morning.

Today's weather is shaping up to be much like what we saw on Thursday.  Early this afternoon, an area of strong to severe thunderstorms was occurring over northwest Texas, generally between Abilene and Wichita Falls.  The area of storms is moving to the northeast and is expected to have no impact on Central Texas weather.  This morning's analysis indicates a strong stable layer in the lower levels of the atmosphere continues across the eastern Hill Country, all of Central Texas and the middle Texas coast.  This stable layer will again negate the development of any potential thunderstorm.  Most of the region will see a partly to mostly cloudy sky and warm temperatures this afternoon and evening.  High temperatures are forecast to be 90-92 degrees.   Forecasters will be closely monitoring the western and northern Hill Country late this afternoon and evening where scattered thunderstorms may once again develop along the dry line advancing east out of West Texas.  Any thunderstorms which do develop will quickly be become severe, producing large hail, damaging winds and locally heavy rain.  There is a small chance some of these developing storms could track toward the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor region late this evening.

The weather focus will turn to the northwest late tonight where a weak cold front will be pushing southeast out of West Texas.  This front is expected to be the focus for the development of widespread rain and thunderstorm activity.  The cold front is forecast to reach the northern Hill Country before daybreak Saturday.  It is forecast to move very slowly to the southeast Saturday morning, reaching the Austin area around midday.  The front is forecast to slow down Saturday afternoon, reaching the Interstate 10 corridor around midnight Saturday night.  Today's forecast solutions indicate a widespread area of moderate rain showers and thunderstorms will develop along and just behind the cold front.  Areas of lighter rain are forecast to persist behind the cold front Saturday afternoon, Saturday night and into Sunday.  Although a  couple of strong thunderstorms may develop along the cold front, widespread severe weather is not expected.  The probability for rain will be near 60 percent Saturday and Saturday night, decreasing to near 30 percent Sunday morning.  Rain amounts Saturday morning through Sunday morning are generally forecast to average between 1 and 2 inches, with isolated heavier totals.  High temperatures Saturday will range from the upper 70s across the northern Hill Country to the upper 80s near the coast.

The sky is forecast to remain mostly cloudy sky across the entire region Sunday afternoon.  There will be a good chance for rain and thunderstorms across the coastal plains region while just a slight chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms is forecast across the Hill Country and Central Texas.  Expect a high temperature in the low 80s.  A slight chance for rain and thunderstorms is forecast Sunday night.

Rain showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to increase in areal coverage Monday as a trough of low pressure begins to push east out of Mexico.  Rain and scattered thunderstorms look to continue Monday night into Tuesday morning as the trough slowly tracks to the northeast.  The rain should taper off from north to south Tuesday afternoon as drier and slightly cooler air arrives behind a cold front.   The front should move out into the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday evening.   Rainfall Monday through Tuesday is forecast to generally average between 1 and 1.5 inches.  Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

Rain totals over the next 5 days are forecast to generally total between 2 and 4 inches. 

NWS rainfall forecast for the period 7 am Friday through 7 am Wednesday:
Rain10.png
Sunny and dry weather is forecast next Wednesday through Friday.  Tuesday's cold front will bring slightly cooler air for the second half of the week.  Lows Wednesday and Thursday mornings are forecast to be in the upper 50s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and in the 60s towards the coast.  Lows Friday morning will be in the 60s.  High temperatures Wednesday through Friday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 80s.

The outlook for the Memorial Day weekend as of now calls for mostly sunny and warm weather Saturday with a high temperature in the low 90s.  There will be a chance for rain showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Memorial Day as another cold front sinks south through the state.

Bob

An Unsettled Pattern Will Bring a Chance for Rain Each Day through Next Tuesday.
Thursday, May 18, 2017 2:29 PM

Several periods of rain and thunderstorms are forecast across the region starting this afternoon, continuing through the middle of next week.  Some of the thunderstorms over the next couple of days could be severe, producing large hail and damaging winds.

A warm, humid and slightly unstable air mass is currently in place across Central and South Texas.   Morning observations indicate a fairly strong inversion, or stable layer, is in place in the lower to middle atmosphere.  This stable layer will likely limit the development of showers and thunderstorms for most areas to the east of Interstate 35.  However, areas to the west of Interstate 35 could see the development of scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening, where the stable layer is much weaker.  The focus for thunderstorm development is expected to be the dry line.  As of late this morning, the dry line stretched from near Lubbock to Midland to Fort Stockton.   It is predicted to push east to the Concho Valley region later this afternoon.  Conditions appear favorable for scattered thunderstorms to develop along the dry line, with the storms tracking to the east-northeast.  Some of these storms may move over parts of the Hill Country late this afternoon and evening.  The northern Hill Country, between San Saba and San Angelo, looks to have the highest probability for rain and thunderstorms.  Should thunderstorms develop, they may quickly become severe, producing large hail , damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area west of I-35 under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight.  The potential for thunderstorms is forecast to decrease after midnight tonight.  For areas that do see thunderstorm activity, most totals should average around a half inch, with isolated heavier totals.  Today's sky is expected to remain mostly cloudy.  Expect a high temperature near 90 degrees.

At 2 pm, the Storm Prediction Center issued a tornado watch for parts of western and northern Texas until 10 pm Thursday evening.  The watch extends south into the northern Hill Country and includes San Saba, Lampasas, Mills, McCulloch, Brown and Coleman Counties.  The Austin area and the rest of the Hill Country are not included in this tornado watch. 

A very similar weather situation is forecast across the region Friday.  The focus for thunderstorm development will primarily be across the Hill Country, close to the position of dry line.  Some of these thunderstorms will again have the potential to become severe.  The most favorable time period for thunderstorms looks to be in the late afternoon and evening.  For locations that do see rain, totals should average around a half inch.  Meanwhile, most areas to the east of Interstate 35 will generally stay  mostly cloudy and dry.  High temperatures will be near 88-90 degrees.

A more widespread coverage of rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast to occur across the region Saturday into Sunday when a weak cold front slowly sags southeast out of North Texas.  Conditions appears favorable for the development of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms out ahead of the cold front beginning Saturday morning.  Additional rain showers and thunderstorms look to continue Saturday night and Sunday behind the cold front.  The threat for severe thunderstorms during this period will not be all that high.  But due to the slow movement of the cold front and the presence of a very moist atmosphere, significant totals of rain will be possible Saturday into Sunday.  Rainfall forecasts suggest widespread totals of 1-2 inches will be possible across the region, with isolated heavier totals.  Do note that if the cold front moves slower than currently forecast, these totals could go higher.  The rain is forecast to decrease in coverage across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Sunday afternoon but continue across the coastal plains region.  A 20-30 percent chance for mainly light rain showers is forecast Sunday night.  

Another chance for rain and thunderstorms is forecast to develop Monday as a trough of low pressure moves east out of Mexico.  This system is expected to quickly pull moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in the development of rain showers and thunderstorms.  The most favorable period for rain is expected to occur Monday night and Tuesday, with the rain tapering off Tuesday night.  Rainfall from this system is forecast to generally average between 0.5 and 1 inch.  This will be followed by sunny and dry weather next Wednesday through Friday.

Pasted below is the National Weather Service's rainfall forecast for the next 7 days.  In general, the forecast calls for totals of 3-4 inches across the northern and western Hill Country, with totals of 2-3 inches at most other Hill County locations.  Totals for areas along and east of I-35 should average between 1 and 3 inches.

NWS rainfall forecast for the period 7 am Thursday through 7 am next Thursday:
Rain7.png
 
Bob

A Chance for Rain and Thunderstorms Forecast Thursday through Next Wednesday.
Wednesday, May 17, 2017 6:16 PM


An unsettled weather pattern is forecast to unfold across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions over the next week as a series of low pressure troughs track east out of Mexico and the Desert Southwest.  The most favorable period for rain looks to occur Saturday morning through early Sunday afternoon when a cold front slowly pushes south out of North Texas.  Additional rain showers are expected Monday through Wednesday as additional disturbances move over the region.

According to the National Weather Service, 7-day rainfall totals are forecast to average between 2 and 3 inches across the Hill Country, around 1-1.5 inches across Central Texas and around an inch across the coastal plains.

NWS rainfall forecast for the period 7 pm Wednesday through 7 pm next Wednesday:
Rain6.png
 
I'll have a more detailed reported on the upcoming wet pattern in Thursday's report.

Bob
 
Monitoring a Chance for Rain and Storms Tuesday Night through Sunday.
Tuesday, May 16, 2017 5:58 PM

Tuesday's forecast data continued to call for an unsettled weather pattern Tuesday night through Sunday.  However, depending on how the pattern evolves over the next few days, rain totals may not be quite as high as previously forecast.

The first threat for rain and thunderstorms looks to occur Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a trough of low pressure tracks northeast out of southern New Mexico.  In advance of the trough, an area of rain and thunderstorms is predicted to develop along the Dry Line across West Texas Tuesday evening.  This line of rain and storms is forecast to slowly spread southeast overnight, reaching the northern Hill Country sometime around 3 am.  Some of these storms may be severe, producing large hail and damaging winds.  The area of rain and storms should progress southeast to the Interstate 35 corridor around sunrise Wednesday morning.  With a more stable atmosphere in place across Central Texas, the rain and storms are forecast to weaken in intensity as they move into the region.  Most of the activity should stay below the severe weather threshold.  With the line weakening further, very little of the activity is expected to reach the middle Texas coast Wednesday.

Rain amounts Tuesday night into Wednesday morning are forecast to total between 0.5 and 1 inch across the northern Hill Country.  Totals of 0.25-0.5 inches are forecast across the rest of the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor.  Totals across the coastal plains should average less than a quarter of an inch.  Mostly sunny and warm weather is forecast Wednesday afternoon, with temperatures climbing to the upper 80s.  Conditions look to stay dry Wednesday night.  Lows Thursday morning will generally be in the low 70s.

Weather conditions Thursday and Friday will feature widespread morning clouds, followed by a partly cloudy sky in the afternoon.  Forecast solutions indicate a large trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere will be setting up over the southern Rockies over this period.  The trough is expected to ignite scattered thunderstorms along the West Texas dry line both afternoons.  A few of these storms may track east across parts of the Hill Country in the late afternoon and evening.  There is a slight chance a couple of thunderstorms could even reach the Interstate 35 corridor Thursday and Friday evenings.  Atmospheric parameters suggest some of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe, producing large hail and damaging winds.  Rain amounts are forecast to average less than a half inch.  High temperatures both days should be in the upper 80s.

The trough of low pressure over the southern Rockies is forecast slowly lift to the northern Rockies over the weekend.  As it does so, it will help push a cold front southeast into Texas.  The front is forecast to move into the Hill Country region Saturday night, spreading across the rest of the region Sunday morning.  Today's forecast solutions indicate very moist air will be drawn north ahead of the cold front, increasing the potential for the development of widespread rain showers and thunderstorms beginning Saturday afternoon, continuing into Sunday afternoon.  Due to the slow movement of the cold front, significant totals of rain will be possible.  Rainfall forecasts show the potential for 1-3 inch totals across the northern Hill Country, 1-2 inches across Central Texas and around 1 inch across the middle Texas coast.

The chance for rain should decrease beginning Sunday afternoon as drier air spreads in behind the cold front.  Partly cloudy and dry weather looks to continue into Monday.

However, this period of dry weather may be short-lived as another trough of low pressure tracks east out of northern Mexico.  This system is forecast to bring scattered rain showers and thunderstorms to much of the region Tuesday into Wednesday morning.  Tuesday's forecast data suggests rain amounts should average around a half inch, or less.  Generally dry weather is forecast next Wednesday afternoon through next Friday.  High temperatures will be in the mid and upper 80s.

NWS 7-day rainfall forecast for the period 7 pm Tuesday through 7 pm next Tuesday:
Rain5.png
 
Bob

A Chance for Rain Developing Tuesday Night, Continuing through the Upcoming Weekend.
Monday, May 15, 2017 2:13 PM

After several days of dry, quiet weather, the weather pattern is expected to become more unsettled this week.  A chance for rain and thunderstorms is forecast Tuesday night into Wednesday, followed by a continued chance for rain and thunderstorms Thursday through Sunday.

Weather conditions are currently quiet across Central and South Texas thanks a stable ridge of high pressure in upper atmosphere.  This is the same feature that brought sunny weather conditions to our area over the weekend.  This afternoon's weather is shaping up to be mostly sunny and warm.  Moisture returning on southerly breezes will cause humidity levels to slowly increase throughout the day.  The temperature is expected to climb to near 90 degrees across Central Texas and the Hill Country and to the mid-80s across the coastal plains.  Expect a south wind at 10-15 mph.  The sky will become cloudy tonight.  Lows Tuesday morning will generally be in the upper 60s.  Tuesday's weather is expected to start off cloudy.  However, the clouds should slowly thin, with the sky becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon.  Tuesday's temperature will warm to the upper 80s.  Southerly winds are forecast to increase to a range of 10-20 mph by the afternoon.

Today's weather maps and satellite images show a large trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere pushing inland along the coast of California.  This trough is forecast to reach the southwestern US late Tuesday, turning northeast to the southern Plains states Wednesday.  The approaching trough is forecast to ignite an area of thunderstorms along the dry line across Far West Texas late Tuesday afternoon.  These thunderstorms are forecast to grow into a large area of rain showers and thunderstorms Tuesday evening.  The activity looks to spread east across the Hill Country roughly between midnight and 3 am, moving into the Interstate 35 corridor after 3 am Wednesday morning.  The rain and thunderstorm activity should continue spreading east across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast Wednesday morning.  The probability for rain will be near 60 percent across the Hill Country and near 40 percent across Central Texas and the coastal region.  Today's forecast data indicates most of the thunderstorm activity should remain just below severe threshold.  But a some of the stronger storms could produce large hail and damaging winds.  The rain is expected to taper off from west to east Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon.  Rain amounts Tuesday night through midday Wednesday are forecast to average between 0.5 and 1 inch across the Hill Country, between 0.25 and 0.50 inches across Central Texas and around a quarter inch or less across the coastal plains.  A partly cloudy sky will develop Wednesday afternoon.  Expect a high temperature in the upper 80s.

An unsettled weather pattern is forecast Thursday through Sunday.  With a moist and slightly unstable air mass in place, there will be a 30 percent chance for mainly afternoon and evening rain showers and thunderstorms across the Central Texas and coastal regions.  In addition, forecast solutions indicate another trough of low pressure will track southeast from the Pacific Northwest, reaching the Four Corners region Thursday.  This trough is forecast to remain nearly stationary Thursday through Saturday before taking off to the northeast Saturday night.  The trough is forecast to set off more scattered thunderstorms along the dry line across West Texas Thursday, Friday and Saturday afternoons.  Some of these thunderstorms may spread across the Hill Country and into parts of Central Texas each afternoon and evening.  The daily probability for rain across the Hill Country will generally be around 50-60 percent.  The focus for rain Wednesday through Saturday will generally be across the Hill Country, where totals of 1-2 inches are forecast.  Across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast, 3-day totals are forecast to average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches.  Daily high temperatures are forecast to generally be in the upper 80s.

Forecast solutions indicate there will be increased chance for rain showers and thunderstorms across the entire region Sunday into Monday when a storm system moves across Texas out of northern Mexico.  At the same time, a weak cold front is forecast to push southeast out of northwest Texas.  Widespread totals to near 1 inch are currently forecast over the 2-day period.  The rain is forecast end from west to east Monday afternoon as drier air spreads in behind the cold front.

Sunny and dry weather is forecast next Tuesday but another chance for rain and thunderstorms looks to develop next Wednesday and Thursday when another trough of low pressure pushes across Texas out of northern Mexico.  Today's forecast data suggests this system could bring widespread, soaking rains to Central and South Texas.  High temperatures next week are forecast to be mostly in the upper 80s.

Significant totals of rain will be possible over the next 7-8 days, with the heaviest rains expected to occur across the Hill Country.  The National Weather Service's rainfall forecast, for the period through 7 am next Monday calls for totals of 3-4 inches across the northern Hill Country, with totals of 1-3 inches further to the south.  Totals of 1-2 inches are forecast across Central Texas, while totals of 0.5-1.5 inches are forecast across the coastal plains.

NWS rainfall forecast for the period 7 am Monday through 7 am next Monday:
Rain11.png

Start to the Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season:
Today marks the official first day of the eastern North Pacific hurricane season, which will run until November 30.  Long-term averages for the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 15, 8, and 4, respectively.  One tropical cyclone, Tropical Storm Adrian, already formed earlier this month.  The next named storm that forms this season will be named Beatriz.

 

Conditions across the eastern north Pacific are currently quiet and tropical cyclone development is not expected over the next 5 days.

The official start to the Atlantic hurricane season will be June 1st.

Bob

An Increasing Chance for Rain and Storms Next Wednesday through Friday. Significant Totals of Rain Will Be Possible.
Friday, May 12, 2017 4:04 PM

 

 

Dry air spreading in behind a weak cold front has brought the return of sunny weather to Central and South Texas.  However, unlike the last 3 cold fronts, the air behind this cold front is not all that cool.  Unfortunately, we've reached the point in spring where cool air has a very difficult time making its way into South Texas.  The air behind the recent cold front is quite dry and this will allow temperatures to warm very efficiently during the day but cool down some at night.

Today's weather maps show a large, stable ridge of high pressure located over the southern Rockies and the southwestern US.  This ridge is forecast to spread over Texas this weekend and Monday, keeping weather conditions sunny, dry and quiet.

Low temperatures Saturday morning will include the low and mid-50s across the Hill Country, the upper 50s across Central Texas and the low 60s across the coastal plains.

High temperatures Saturday will be mostly in the middle 80s.

Low temperatures Sunday morning will range from the upper 50s across the Hill Country to the mid-60s towards the coast.

High temperatures Mother's Day are forecast to be near 88-90 degrees.

Lows Monday morning will be mostly in the mid-60s.

High temperatures Monday are forecast to be near 90-degrees, with several low 90 degree readings across the Hill Country.

 
A change in the weather pattern is forecast to take place beginning Tuesday when the ridge of high pressure over Texas moves to the east.  At the same time, a broad trough of low pressure is forecast to take shape over the western US.  Moisture is forecast to begin spreading north from the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday in advance of the broad trough.  This will result in the development of a mostly cloudy sky.  Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop across West Texas along the dry line Tuesday afternoon.  Some of these thunderstorms may track east to parts of the Hill Country and even the Interstate 35 corridor late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening.  The probability for rain will be around 30 percent.  Tuesday's temperature should still reach the upper 80s.    

A couple of small troughs of low pressure are forecast to rotate around the parent trough and move across Texas Wednesday and Thursday.  These systems look to initiate scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms across the region.  There are early indications some of these storms could be strong to severe.  Additional scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are forecast Friday into early Saturday as the large trough slowly lifts northeast into the Plains states.

Several of today's forecast solutions indicate significant totals of rain will be possible across the region next Wednesday through Friday due to the troughs of low pressure and a very moist flow off the Gulf of Mexico.  Some of the solutions are calling for totals as high as of 3-5 inches.  The National Weather Service's 7-day rainfall forecast is calling for totals of 3-4 inches across the northern Hill Country, with 1-2 inch totals further south.  There is currently much uncertainty with the rainfall forecast.  But do note that significant totals will be a distinct possibility.

National Weather Service rainfall forecast for the period 7 pm Friday through 7 pm next Friday:
Rain10.png
 
Long-range forecasts indicate the rain should clear out next Saturday, with generally dry and warm weather taking hold next Sunday and Monday.

Have a good weekend.

Bob

Abnormally Dry Conditions Have Returned to the Hill Country and the Austin Area.
Thursday, May 11, 2017 6:00 PM


Thursday's updated National Drought Monitor showed a significant change for the Austin area and parts of the Hill Country.  For the first time in nearly 9 months, the designation of "abnormally dry" has been given to the area.

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"Abnormally dry" is not a level of drought, but rather a designation for areas where rainfall has been below normal and conditions are trending toward drought.

The following National Weather Service graphic shows the rainfall departure from normal for the past 30 days:
AugT.png
 
Note that rainfall across parts of Travis, Williamson, Blanco, Burnet, Gillespie, Llano, Mason, Kimble, Kerr and Kendall Counties has been running between 2 and 3 inches below normal.  We are currently entering what is typically the wettest time of the year.  The lack of rain over the past month has made conditions abnormally dry.  In addition, above normal temperatures and several windy days over the past month have helped conditions dry out.

And while the weather has been drier than normal recently, there are some hints that conditions might be changing next week.  The combination of a slow-moving trough of low pressure moving out of the southwestern US and a very moisture flow off the Gulf of Mexico is expected to bring widespread rain showers and thunderstorms to Central Texas late next week.

The National Weather Service's rainfall forecast for next Wednesday and Thursday calls for totals of 1-2 inches across the Hill Country.  Keep in mind, this is a just a rough estimate and picks up only day one of the wet period.

NWS rainfall forecast for the period from 7 pm next Tuesday through 7 pm next Thursday.
Rain7.png
 
I'll have more details on this potential wet pattern in Friday's report.

Bob

Monitoring a Chance for Rain Showers and Thunderstorms Thursday
Wednesday, May 10, 2017 6:16 PM

Periods of rain showers and thunderstorms are forecast Thursday and Thursday evening as an area of low pressure system tracks northeast across New Mexico and pushing a cold front into Texas.  The front is forecast to move across the Hill Country late Thursday afternoon, reaching the Interstate 35 corridor Thursday evening.  The front is forecast to push off the middle Texas coast around sunrise Friday morning.

A few of the thunderstorms Thursday could become strong to severe across the Hill Country and Central Texas, but the greatest threat for severe weather is forecast to occur across parts of North and Northeast Texas.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Central Texas and a good part of the Hill Country under a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Thursday.  A marginal risk means isolated, short-lived severe storms will be possible.

Heat.png 
The chance for rain is forecast to end from west to east Thursday evening and Thursday night as drier and more stable air spreads in behind the cold front.  A dry weather pattern will develop Friday and continue through the weekend.

Rainfall from scattered rain showers and thunderstorms Thursday are forecast to average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches across much of the Hill Country and the northern counties of Central Texas.  Elsewhere, totals are forecast to average less than a quarter inch.

NWS rainfall forecast for the period 7 pm Wednesday through 7 pm Friday:
Rain6.png

Bob

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