On Thursday, Dr. William Gray and Dr. Philip Kltoztbach of Colorado State University issued their April outlook for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season. In general, hurricane and tropical storm activity is expected to be below normal this season due the development of El Niño in the tropical Pacific. Cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in the Main Development Region of the tropical Atlantic are also expected to limit tropical cyclone development.
Here are some highlights from the report. The complete outlook can be found at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2014
We anticipate that the 2014 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have below-average activity compared with the 1981-2010 climatology. It appears quite likely that an El Niño of at least moderate strength will develop this summer and fall. In addition, the tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past few months. We anticipate a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. Despite the quiet forecast, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.
(as of 10 April 2014)
By Philip J. Klotzbach1 and William M. Gray2
ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2014 Forecast Parameter and 1981-2010
Median (in parentheses)
10 April 2014
|Named Storms (NS) (12.0) ||9 |
|Named Storm Days (NSD) (60.1) ||35 |
|Hurricanes (H) (6.5) ||3 |
|Hurricane Days (HD) (21.3) ||12 |
|Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.0) ||1 |
|Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (3.9) ||2 |
|Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (92) ||55 |
|Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (103%) ||60 |
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:
1) Entire U.S. coastline - 35% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 20% (average for last century is 31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 19% (average for last century is 30%)
PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE TRACKING INTO THE CARIBBEAN (10-20°N, 60-88°W)
- 28% (average for last century is 42%)
Information obtained through March 2014 indicates that the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season will likely have less activity than the median 1981-2010 season. We estimate that 2014 will have only 3 hurricanes (median is 6.5), 9 named storms (median is 12.0), 35 named storm days (median is 60.1), 12 hurricane days (median is 21.3), 1 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (median is 2.0) and 2 major hurricane days (median is 3.9). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 65 percent of the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2014 to be approximately 60 percent of their long-term averages.
This forecast is based on a new extended-range early April statistical prediction scheme that was developed utilizing 29 years of past data. Analog predictors are also utilized. We anticipate a below-average Atlantic basin hurricane season due to the combination of a relatively high likelihood of at least a moderate El Niño and a relatively cool tropical Atlantic. Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.