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Will El Niño continue?

 

Will the wet weather pattern caused by El Niño continue? See the latest update from LCRA Chief Meteorologis​t Bob Rose.

Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

A Slight Chance for Rain and Storms through the Weekend. An Increasing Chance for Rain Next Tuesday through Friday.
Friday, May 27, 2016 4:00 PM



A very heavy rain event set up Thursday evening and Thursday night between Austin and Houston, producing record amounts of rain.  Thunderstorms persisted along a boundary, producing extremely heavy rainfall.  Totals of 8-11 inches were generally reported from South Austin, to Bastrop to Giddings, Brenham and Conroe.  The core of the heaviest rain appears to have occurred over Washington County where widespread totals of 12-16 inches were reported.  The highest gauged total was just over 19 inches from a CoCoRaHS observer in Brenham.

Estimated rain falling between 1 pm Thursday and 1 pm Friday (courtesy NOAA)
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This afternoon, a large complex of rain and thunderstorms was occurring across southeast Texas from around Schulenburg to just north of Houston.  This area of rain and storms was moving to the south  very slowly.  Very heavy rain and thunderstorms are forecast across Fayette, Colorado, Wharton and  Matagorda Counties this afternoon and evening, where additional totals of 2-4 inches will be possible.  A Flash Flood Watch has been posted for Lee, Fayette, Colorado and Wharton Counties through this evening.  This area of heavy rain should decrease and shift east of the area this evening.  Across the rest of the region, weather conditions are generally dry this afternoon and the sky was sunny across a good portion of the Hill Country.  The atmosphere is still somewhat unstable, so there will be a 20 percent chance for the development of scattered rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, but the rain is not expected to be widespread or terribly heavy.  Additional totals should generally be around a half inch or less.  Today's temperature looks to warm to around 90 degrees across the western Hill Country and to the mid 80s at most other locations.

The trough of low pressure which helped generate the heavy rain and storms last night and this morning is lifting north into the Plains states, allowing the atmosphere over West and Central Texas to become just a bit more stable.  Saturday through Sunday, a very moist air mass will remain in place across the area.  The other main weather feature will be the Dry Line across West Texas.  Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the region, mainly in the afternoon and evening periods.  The most favorable area for rain and storms is forecast to occur across the Hill Country, as thunderstorms develop along the Dry Line and push east.  I expect the sky to be partly cloudy both days, along with a 30 percent chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.  Rain amounts are forecast to generally total between 0.25 and 0.5 inches each day.  High temperatures will be in the upper 80s.

The chance for rain and thunderstorms is forecast to increase some on Memorial Day as the first in a series of low pressure troughs begins moving into Texas out of Mexico.  Monday's weather is shaping up to be mostly cloudy along with a 40-50 percent chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.  Rain amounts are forecast to average around a half inch.  Expect a high temperature in the mid 80s.

For the period Tuesday through next Friday, additional waves of low pressure are forecast to track across our region out of Mexico, causing a continued daily chance for rain showers and thunderstorms.  The most favorable period for widespread and heavier rains is forecast to occur Wednesday through Friday.  Rain amounts Tuesday through Wednesday are forecast to total around an inch, while totals Thursday through Friday are forecast to total close to 2 inches.  Keep in mind these rainfall forecasts are just approximations at this point and will change as we get into next week.  But do note that in general, our region could see an additional 2-4 inches of rain next week.  High temperatures are forecast to stay in the mid to upper 80s.

Looking out longer range, today's solutions indicate next weekend's weather should be a little drier as the train of low pressure systems decreases and a weak ridge of high pressure begins to build across the state.  Expect a slight chance for showers each afternoon.

Tropical Disturbance off the Southeastern U.S.
National Hurricane Center forecasters are closely monitoring an area of showers and thunderstorms located about 450 miles southeast of Charleston, Carolina.  This morning, the rain and storms have become more concentrated around a weak area of low pressure.  An Air Force Reconnaissance plane is investigating the system this afternoon to determine if the low has a closed circulation and a tropical cyclone has developed.  Environmental conditions are favorable for this system to become a tropical cyclone later today or on Saturday, while it moves west-northwestward toward the southeastern US coast.  Interests from Georgia to North Carolina are urged to monitor the progress of this system over the next few days.  Hurricane Center forecasters are giving this system a 90 percent chance for tropical development over the next 5 days.  Should this system become a tropical cyclone, it will be given the name Bonnie.

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Have a safe and happy holiday weekend.  And remember, if you happen to encounter high water or a flooded roadway, remember the slogan and Turn Around, Don't Drown.

Bob

Previous Blog Entries

A Slight Chance for Rain through Wednesday. Heavier Rains Expected Thursday and Friday.
Monday, May 23, 2016 1:33 PM

Over the weekend, a moderate flow off the Gulf of Mexico helped bring a very humid air mass inland.  Today, that humid air mass remains in place across the entire region and it isn't expected to change much over the next several days.  Today's weather maps show a broad trough of low pressure covering the western US while a weak ridge of high pressure stretches from the lower Mississippi Valley to north of the Great Lakes.  Weak disturbances rotating around the broad western trough are forecast to track east across the southern Plains over the next two to three days, producing occasional clusters of rain and thunderstorms.  The Central Texas region will likely be too far south to experience any of these thunderstorms.  However, the passing disturbances are expected to spark the development of thunderstorms along the West Texas Dry Line each afternoon.  Some of these storms could spread east into the western Hill Country before dissipating.  Otherwise, there will a slight chance for isolated rain showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening due to the moist and slightly unstable atmosphere.

This afternoon and evening, the sky looks to stay mostly cloudy to occasionally partly cloudy.  There will be a slight (20 percent) chance for isolated rain showers and thunderstorms across the entire region.  Forecasters will be closely watching for thunderstorm development along the West Texas Dry Line.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed the western Hill Country, that area generally west of a Brownwood to Junction line, under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms through early Tuesday morning.  Rain amounts will generally average less than a quarter of an inch.  Today's temperature should warm to the middle 80s.  Lows Tuesday morning will be in the low 70s.

For Tuesday through Wednesday, few changes in the forecast are expected.  A very slight chance for afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorms will continue.  We should see a bit more sunshine both afternoons along with breezy south winds at 10-20 mph.  Rain amounts, if any, will average less than a quarter of an inch.  Expect high temperatures in the upper 80s with low temperatures in the low 70s.

The broad trough of low pressure over the western US is forecast to slowly shift to east Thursday through Friday.  As the trough approaches northwestern Texas, it's expected to cause the widespread development of rain showers and thunderstorms across the Hill Country and Central Texas.  Two or three waves of rain and thunderstorms are forecast Thursday through Friday evening.  Some of the thunderstorms may be strong to severe, producing large hail and damaging winds.  The probability for rain will be near 50-60 percent through the period.  Rainfall forecasts call for widespread 2-day totals of around 1-2 inches.  The sky will be cloudy both days with high temperatures in the mid 80s.

NWS rainfall forecast for the period from 7 am Thursday through 7 am Saturday
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The chance for widespread rain is forecast to diminish Friday night as trough exits to the northeast.  Following the trough, a weak ridge of high pressure is forecast to set up across Texas over the weekend and continue through the middle of next week.  The ridge will cause a partly cloudy, warm and humid weather pattern.  Enough moisture looks to remain in place across the region to cause a few isolated rain showers or thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.  However, widespread or heavy rain is not expected.  Spotty totals should average around a quarter inch.  High temperatures will be in the upper 80s over the weekend and in the upper 80s to 90 degrees through the first half of next week.

Bob

A Daily Chance for Scattered Rain Showers is Forecast through the Middle of Next Week.
Friday, May 20, 2016 4:08 PM

Quiet weather conditions have returned to Central Texas in the wake of Thursday's thunderstorms and heavy rain.  The large trough of low pressure responsible for causing Thursday's heavy rains has lifted northeast to the middle Mississippi Valley region, allowing the atmosphere across Texas to become considerably drier and more stable.  

Mostly sunny and dry weather will continue on Saturday.  However, there will be a very slight chance for a few scattered afternoon rain showers and isolated thunderstorms as the cold front from earlier in the week lifts back to the north as a warm front.  Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to stream north, leading to the possible development of a few scattered rain showers.  The probability for rain at any given locations will be 20 percent.  Most areas will remain dry but spotty totals to around a quarter inch will be possible.  Expect a high temperature in the mid 80s.

The chance for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase a bit Sunday into Sunday evening when a weak wave of low pressure tracks southeast out Oklahoma.  This system will pull moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in a partly to mostly cloudy sky.  The probability for rain at any given location will be near 20-30 percent and rain amounts should average around a quarter inch.  Sunday's temperature is expected to warm to the mid 80s.  Lows Monday morning will be near 68-70 degrees.

A fairly typical late spring/early summer weather pattern is forecast Monday through Wednesday as a large trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere sets up over the western US.  Occasional weak disturbances will rotate around the trough and track across the southern Plains states causing a slight chance for scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms.  The probability for rain each day will be 20 percent.  Daily rain totals should average less than a quarter inch.  Otherwise, weather conditions will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy, warm and humid.  Daily high temperatures should generally be in the mid and upper 80s.

The chance for rain and thunderstorms will increase next Thursday and Friday when two pieces of the western trough break loose and track east across New Mexico and northwest Texas.  Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop Thursday afternoon/Thursday night and again Friday afternoon/Friday night.  Rain amounts on both days are forecast to average around a half inch, with isolated heavier totals.  High temperatures both days will be continue in the mid and upper 80s.


 

NWS rainfall forecast for the period from 7 pm Wednesday through 7 pm Thursday:

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Looking out further to next weekend, today's forecast data calls for fairly quiet weather conditions as a broad but weak ridge of high pressure develops across Texas and the south central US.  Weak disturbances moving through the ridge look to cause a slight (20 percent) chance for afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms Saturday through Memorial Day.  Otherwise, weather conditions should be partly cloudy and warm with high temperatures in the upper 80s.

MARS ALERT:  On any night this weekend, step outside in the late evening and look low in the southern south sky for a brilliant red "star" in the sky.  This is the planet Mars which is approaching Earth for a close encounter at the end of the month.  I happened to catch the view Thursday night and Mars was unmistakable and quite amazing!

Have a good weekend.

Bob

More Rain and Storms Expected Wednesday Night through Thursday. Drier Weather Friday and this Weekend.
Wednesday, May 18, 2016 4:54 PM

The area of rain and storms which moved across the region Tuesday night exited the area early Wednesday morning.  The storms produced totals of 3-5 inches across a large part of the western Hill Country, from west of San Angelo to north of Kerrville.  LCRA's highest gauged total was 5.47 inches at a location 6 miles northwest of Harper, near the Kimble/ Gillespie County line.  Across Central Texas and the middle Texas coasdt, most totals were near or just below a half inch.

NWS estimated rain totals for the period from 3 pm Tuesday and 3 pm Wednesday (courtesy NOAA): 
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The weather pattern looks to become active tonight through Thursday when a large trough of low pressure currently located over southern Arizona begins pushing off the east.  The approaching trough will pull Gulf moisture up and over the shallow layer of cool air currently in place.  This is expected to result in the development of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region this evening and overnight.  Strong atmospheric lift associated with the advancing trough is forecast to cause the development of a large area of rain and thunderstorms across West Texas late Wednesday evening.  The rain and storms are forecast to spread east across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Wednesday night, reaching the coastal plains region Thursday morning.  Additional waves of rain showers and thunderstorms are forecast to move across the area throughout the day Thursday, continuing into Thursday evening.  The rain should taper off from west to east after midnight Thursday night as the trough exits the region.  High temperatures Thursday will be mostly in the low 70s.

 

Some of the thunderstorms on Thursday may be strong to severe.  The main threat area will be for locations southeast of Austin, extending south to the coast.  A warm front lifting north from the coast will bring warmer and more humid inland from the Gulf.  This may result in some of the thunderstorms becoming severe, producing large hail and damaging winds.  A couple of isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out as well.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area south of Interstate 35 in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Thursday into Thursday night.    

 

The National Weather Service has posted a Flash Flood Watch for all of the Hill Country and Central Texas through Thursday evening.  A fairly uniform coverage of rain is forecast across the region Thursday into Thursday night.  The latest rainfall forecasts call for general totals of 1-3 inches, with isolated totals to near 4 inches.

NWS rainfall forecast for the period from 7 pm Wednesday through 7 pm Friday:
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A mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky is forecast across the area Friday in the wake of the upper trough.  Expect a high temperature in the low 80s.  A stable ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere is forecast to set up across Texas this weekend, causing a mostly sunny and dry weather pattern.   High temperatures both days will be in the mid 80s.  Lows will be in the 60s.

The ridge of high pressure is forecast to shift east of Texas beginning early next week as a large trough of low pressure sets up over the western US.  This type of set up is expected to cause a mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky across the region next week.  The Dry Line is forecast to become active, with thunderstorms developing across West Texas each afternoon.  These storms will track to the east and there's a chance some of the storms could reach parts of the Hill Country in the late afternoon and evening.  Across the rest of the region, a few isolated rain showers will be possible each afternoon and evening.  Rain amounts next week are forecast to be quite low.  High temperatures will be mostly in the mid and upper 80s with low temperatures around 70-72 degrees.

Bob

Rain and Thunderstorms Forecast through Thursday Night. A Drier Pattern Expected Friday and this Weekend.
Tuesday, May 17, 2016 3:24 PM

As of mid afternoon, weather conditions were still quiet across Central Texas.  Satellite.  But weather radar showed scattered strong to severe thunderstorms increasing in coverage across the Permian Basin and the Concho Valley where a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been posted until 10 pm.  Another area of thunderstorms had developed along the middle Texas coast between Goliad and Matagorda Bay, moving to the east-northeast.  

The focus of today's weather will be a cold front pushing south out of northwest Texas.  The front is forecast to move reach the northern Hill Country mid to late afternoon then sag south into Central Texas this evening and overnight.  A large complex of rain and thunderstorms is forecast to gradually develop along the cold front this afternoon, generally between Fort Stockton. San Angelo and Brownwood.  The rain and storms are forecast to slowly sink south-southeast across the Hill Country this evening and overnight.  The activity is also forecast to spread into Central Texas.  Today's atmosphere is structured in a way that these developing thunderstorms may become severe.  However, the threat for severe storms appears to be primarily focused across the Hill Country, generally between San Angelo and San Antonio, extending west to the Rio Grande River.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed this area under an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and overnight.   The eastern Hill Country and the southern counties of Central Texas extending east to Highway 71 (including the Austin metro area) have been placed under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms.

Large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be possible with some of the thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight.  The heaviest rains are now forecast to occur across the Hill Country, generally between San Angelo and San Antonio.  Here, totals of 1-2 inches are forecast this afternoon through early Wednesday morning.  Isolated heavier totals will be possible.  Totals of 0.5-1 inch are forecast across the Interstate 35 corridor and the middle Texas coast.  The area of rain and storms is forecast to exit to the south late tonight. 

Today's cold front is forecast to stall across the coastal plains region near Interstate 10 on Wednesday.  A southerly wind flow in the lower atmosphere lifting north over the shallow cool air mass will likely keep the sky cloudy.  Scattered, mostly light rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast throughout the day.  The probability for rain will be near 30 percent.  Wednesday's temperature will be a little cooler, mostly in the mid to upper 70s.  Mid 80s are forecast across the coastal plains.  Expect a northeast wind at 10-15 mph.

The chance for rain and thunderstorms will increase across the entire region beginning Wednesday night when a large trough of low pressure tracks east out of southern New Mexico. This trough will enhance the overrunning rain pattern across Central and South Texas.  Rain showers and thunderstorms look to increase in areal coverage and intensity Wednesday night and continue throughout the day on Thursday.  The rain will persist into Thursday evening but should taper off from west to east Thursday night.  Rain amounts are forecast to generally total between 1 and 2 inches although the Interstate 35 corridor could see totals to near 3 inches.

Rainfall amounts between this afternoon and Friday morning are forecast to total between 3 and 4 inches across parts of the Hill Country, with totals in excess of 4 inches noted in the area between Fredericksburg and Ozona.  Totals of 2-3 inches are forecast at most other locations.

NWS rainfall forecast for the period from 7 pm Tuesday through 7 pm Friday
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The chance for widespread rain and thunderstorms is forecast to decrease Friday as the trough exits to the northeast.  A strengthening ridge of high pressure over Texas will cause a partly cloudy and fairly stable weather pattern Friday through Sunday.  A few isolated rain showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and evening, but rain amounts are forecast to be around a quarter inch or less.  Expect warmer temperatures, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Bob

Periods of Rain and Thunderstorms Expected through Late Thursday.
Monday, May 16, 2016 12:27 PM

Our region is currently in a wet and unsettled weather pattern looks to continue through late week.

At midday, no rain was occurring across the Hill Country or Central Texas regions while the last of the rain from overnight was exiting the middle Texas coast.  No additional rain is forecast this afternoon, although the sky will stay mostly cloudy.  Today's temperature will generally warm to the low 80s.  This morning's forecast data indicates an area of rain and thunderstorms will develop over northeastern Mexico this late afternoon ahead of a weak disturbance.  This area of rain is forecast to push east into West and Southwest Texas this evening.  Should these storms maintain their organization, they look to spread into the Hill Country and Central Texas regions around midnight.  The rain should diminish by daybreak Tuesday morning.  Rain amounts are forecast to total around a quarter of an inch.

A brief break from the rain is forecast to develop Tuesday morning into the early afternoon.  However, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region Tuesday afternoon as the atmosphere grows increasingly moist and unstable ahead of a cold front pushing south out of Oklahoma.  Some of these storms may be severe, producing large hail and damaging winds.  Forecast solutions call for the development of a large complex of thunderstorms over the area between San Angelo and Stephenville late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening.  This area of rain and storms is forecast to slowly sink southeast into the Hill Country, parts of Central Texas and the middle Texas coast Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Once again, some of these storms may also be severe.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor under an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms through 7 am Wednesday.  An enhanced risk means numerous, persistent severe storms will be possible.  Locally heavy rain will also be possible with this complex of storms as it slowly moves to the southeast.  The rain is forecast taper off across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Wednesday morning and across the coastal plains region Wednesday afternoon.  Rainfall between Tuesday morning and Wednesday afternoon is forecast to generally total between 1 and 2 inches.

Just a slight chance for rain and thunderstorms is forecast Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening as the atmosphere briefly becomes more stable.  Wednesday's temperature will warm to the upper 70s.

That period of quiet weather will be very short-lived as another chance for rain and thunderstorms is forecast to develop after midnight Wednesday night, continuing through Thursday night, when a large trough of low pressure tracks northeast out of Mexico.  Gulf moisture will  increase ahead of the trough, leading to the development of widespread rain showers and thunderstorms.  Severe storms don't appear as likely with this round of rain as it does Tuesday into Tuesday night.  However, moderate to occasionally heavy rain is expected.  The rain is forecast to taper off from west to east beginning late Thursday evening.  Rain totals between late Wednesday night and Thursday evening are forecast to generally total between 1 and 2 inches, with isolated heavier totals.   Thursday's high temperature is forecast to be in the mid 70s.

Significant totals of rain are forecast across the region this week.  The National Weather Service's 5-day rainfall forecast calls for widespread totals of 2-3 inches, with some pockets of 3-5 inch totals:

NWS rainfall forecast for the period from 7 am Monday through 7 am Saturday
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A more stable weather pattern is forecast to develop Friday and into the weekend as a weak ridge of high pressure begins to set up across the south central US.  A couple of isolated rain showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and evening, but most locations should remain dry.  High temperatures Friday will be in the low 80s, warming to the mid 80s Saturday and Sunday.

Looking ahead to next week, weather conditions are forecast to be partly cloudy, warm and humid. There will be a slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm each day throughout the week.  However, widespread or heavy rain is not expected.  High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s through the first half of the week, rising to around 88-90 degrees for the second half of the week.     

Bob
A Wet and Unsettled Pattern Developing. Rain and Storms Possible through Next Thursday.
Friday, May 13, 2016 3:47 PM

An unsettled weather pattern is forecast this weekend, continuing through late next week as a series of low pressure troughs move across Texas, causing periods of rain and thunderstorms.  Some of the rain may at times be moderate to heavy.

The weak cold front which pushed out of North Texas on Thursday has stalled close to Interstate 10 between Houston, San Antonio and Fort Stockton.   Forecast solutions indicate the front may become the focus for rain and thunderstorm development mid to late afternoon as the temperature warms into the upper 80s.  The middle Texas coast will see a 40-50 percent chance for rain and storms this afternoon and evening.  A couple of the storms may produce totals of 1-2 inches.  Across the rest of the region, the chance for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be 20 percent and rain amounts should only average around a quarter of an inch.  The rain will diminish this evening.  A couple of today's high resolution forecast models indicate an area of thunderstorms will develop across northwest Texas late this evening, with the activity tracking southeast toward the Hill Country between 3 am and 6 am.  My confidence in this solution is not particularly high, but it cannot be completely ruled out.  Lows Saturday morning will be near 65-68 degrees.

Rain and thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage across the region Saturday afternoon and evening when another weak cold front sinks south out of North Texas.  A couple of these storms could be strong to severe.  The probability for rain will be around 40 percent.  Expect a party to mostly cloudy sky and a high temperature in the mid 80s.  Rain amounts are forecast to average around a quarter of an inch, with isolated totals to near 1 inch possible.

Sunday's weather is shaping up to be cloudy as considerable moisture is drawn into Texas ahead a trough of low pressure located over northern Mexico.  The trough is forecast to track east across the state Sunday afternoon into Monday morning, producing a widespread coverage of rain showers and thunderstorms.  Some of the storms Sunday afternoon and evening may be strong to severe, producing large hail and strong winds.  The probability for rain for rain will be 50 percent Sunday and 60 percent Sunday night into Monday morning.  Rain amounts over this period are generally forecast to total between 1 and 2 inches along with isolated heavier totals.  The rain should decrease around midday Monday as the trough exits to the northeast.  Sunday's high temperature will be around 80 degrees.

Generally dry weather is expected Monday afternoon, continuing into Tuesday morning as the upper trough pushes off to the east.  Expect a high temperature in the low 80s.  

Rain and thunderstorms are forecast to increase again Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night when another cold front pushes south out of North Texas.  A widespread area of rain and storms is forecast along and behind the cold front.  Rain amounts are forecast to total between 0.5 and 1 inch, with isolated heavier totals.  The front is forecast to stall across the coastal plains region Tuesday night into Wednesday.  A trough tracking east across the Plains states Wednesday into Thursday is forecast to pull moisture north over the stalled frontal boundary, resulting in the development of widespread rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.  The most favorable period for rain looks to occur late Wednesday into Thursday.  Rainfall forecasts suggest totals of 1-2 inches will be possible over this 2-day period.

A dry and warmer pattern is forecast next Friday and next weekend as a ridge of high pressure sets up and strengthens over Texas.

Significant totals of rain are forecast across Central Texas between Saturday and next Friday.  The National Weather Service's 7-day rainfall forecast calls for widespread totals of 3-5 inches.   I would not be surprised to see a couple of higher totals at a few locations.

NWS rainfall forecast for the period from 7 pm Friday through 7 pm next Friday:
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This is shaping up to be a wet and potentially stormy week ahead.  The ground is still fairly wet from recent rains and additional rainfall will runoff quickly.  I urge everyone to keep a close eye on the latest forecasts and weather developments.

Have a good weekend.

Bob

A Chance for Rain and Thunderstorms Will Continue through the Middle of Next Week.
Thursday, May 12, 2016 6:24 PM


An unsettled weather pattern is expected to remain in place across Central Texas for the next week as a series of low pressure troughs track across the area out of the Pacific, bringing periods of rain and thunderstorms.  The current position of the Jet Stream has the southern branch of the Jet Stream situated west-to-east over the southern US.
 
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Small waves of low pressure embedded within the jet stream, represented by the wavy lines in the above image, are flowing across Texas out of the eastern Pacific and this pattern is forecast to remain in place well into next week.

A broad trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere can be seen over the north central US in today's analysis of the upper atmosphere shown above.  This trough has helped push a weak cold front south into Texas.  As of late Thursday afternoon, the front had made into Central Texas but was beginning to slow down and stall.  Slightly cooler air is expected to filter into the Hill Country and parts of Central Texas Thursday night.  Lows Friday morning will include the low 60s across the Hill Country, the mid and upper 60s across Central Texas and the upper 60s towards the coast.  Despite the presence of this drier and more stable air mass, there will be a 20 to 30 percent chance for additional rain showers and thunderstorms Thursday night through Saturday night as occasional waves of pressure track across Texas.  Severe storms are not forecast but some of the storms could contain small hail and gusty winds.  Rainfall will generally average around a quarter inch on Friday and Saturday.  Periods of dry weather will be in place as well.  High temperatures both days will generally be in the mid 80s.

A large and stronger trough of low pressure is forecast to track across Texas out the Desert South Sunday into Monday.  This system is expected to cause a fairly widespread area of rain and thunderstorms beginning midday Sunday, continuing through Monday afternoon.  Some strong to possibly severe storms will be possible.  Rainfall over the 2-day period looks to total between 1 and 2 inches, along with isolated heavier totals.  High temperatures both days will be around 80-82 degrees.

A small break in the rain is forecast to take place late Monday into Tuesday.  But another large trough of low pressure is forecast to move across Texas late Tuesday into Wednesday, causing another round of rain showers and thunderstorms.  Some of this rain could be locally heavy.  The rain is forecast to taper off Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the trough exits to the east.    Rainfall over this period is also forecast to total between 1 and 2 inches, along with isolated heavier totals.  High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the mid 80s.

Today's forecast solutions indicate a drier pattern will take shape late next week when a ridge of high pressure builds over Texas out of Mexico.  This generally dry pattern is forecast to continue into next weekend.  High temperatures will be in the mid and upper 80s with low temperatures around 68-70 degrees.

This is a typical May weather pattern for Central Texas, with several opportunities for rain and storms.  May is generally the wettest and stormiest month of the year as temperature and humidity levels increase.

Bob

An Active, Unsettled Weather Pattern Looks to Continue into Next Week
Tuesday, May 10, 2016 5:57 PM


A very active, springtime weather pattern will be in place for the next couple of days and again early next week. The southern branch of the jet streams looks to bring a series of atmospheric disturbances into Texas out of Mexico, with each one causing the potential for rain and thunderstorms.

One of these disturbances was pushing into Texas out of northeastern Mexico Tuesday afternoon. This system is helping cause the development of an area of rain and thunderstorms across the Hill Country late Tuesday afternoon. This large area of rain and storms is forecast to spread northeast and east Tuesday evening and could affect parts of Central Texas late Tuesday evening.  The atmosphere over the region is moderately unstable and several of these storms could become severe, producing very large hail and damaging downburst winds.  An isolated tornado or two will be possible.  The rain and storms are forecast to weaken and diminish shortly after midnight.  Where it does rain, rain amounts are forecast to average around a half inch with isolated totals of 1-2 inches possible.

On Wednesday, another weak disturbance is forecast to track east out of Mexico in the afternoon.  Forecast solutions indicate the atmosphere will be a bit more stable Wednesday, compared to that on Tuesday.  As a result, just a slight chance (20 percent) for thunderstorms is forecast Wednesday afternoon and evening.  Wednesday's temperature should generally reach the upper 80s.

A somewhat better chance for rain and thunderstorms is forecast to occur Thursday into Thursday night when a weak cold front sags into Central Texas out of North Texas.  The front is forecast to reach the northern Hill Country around daybreak and the Interstate 10 corridor late Thursday afternoon.  With abundant moisture in place, widespread rain showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop Thursday into Thursday night across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and Thursday night into Friday morning across the coastal plains.  The threat for severe storms Thursday into Friday isn't forecast to be all that high.  Rainfall associated with the cold front is forecast to average around a half inch with isolated totals of 1-1.5 inch.

Clouds are forecast to clear from north to south Friday behind the cold front.  Mostly sunny and dry weather is forecast Friday afternoon and again on Saturday.  Friday's temperature will be a little cooler, warming to the low 80s.  Lows Saturday morning will be in the low and mid 60s. Readings should reach the mid 80s on Saturday.     

Today's forecast solutions indicate a wet and unsettled pattern will develop Sunday and continue into the first half of next week when a broad area of low pressure sets up over the southwestern US and becomes nearly stationary.  Periods of rain and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across Central Texas beginning Sunday afternoon, continuing through next Wednesday or Thursday.  The model solutions are indicating this period could be fairly wet, with the potential for 1 to 3 inches of rain.  There is still considerable uncertainty in the details, but this parts of the region could see significant totals of rain.  Drier weather is forecast late next week.  High temperatures next week are only forecast to be around 80-82 degrees.

Bob
 
An Unsettled Pattern will Cause a Chance for Rain and Storms throughout the Week.
Monday, May 9, 2016 4:10 PM



This week's weather is going to feel much more like the middle of spring, compared to last week's cool and pleasant weather.  Warm and humid air spreading north from the Gulf is going to cause warmer and humid weather conditions throughout the week.

The rain and thunderstorm activity which moved across the coastal plains and the northern Hill Country earlier this morning has pushed well off to the east.  As of early this afternoon, the sky was mostly sunny across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and mostly cloudy towards the coast.  Forecasters are closely monitoring the progress of the Dry Line which is pushing east out of West Texas.  Early this afternoon, the Dry Line stretched from Stephenville to Llano to south of Del Rio.  The boundary is forecast to reach or even push east of the Interstate 35 corridor sometime mid to late afternoon and the boundary may become the focus for thunderstorm development.  Warm air in the middle atmosphere is currently putting a lid on thunderstorm development, but this lid is forecast to weaken by late afternoon, and may allow for the development of scattered thunderstorms.  Should thunderstorms develop, today's atmosphere is structured in such a way that these storms may quickly become severe.  Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with any of the developing thunderstorm.  The main threat area for thunderstorms this afternoon will be the Interstate 35 corridor and areas just to the east.  This does include the City of Austin.  The probability for rain at any given location will be low—generally around 20 percent.  Today's temperature is forecast to reach the upper 80s.  Expect breezy south winds at 10-20 mph, with gusts to 25 mph.  Gust of 30-40 mph are forecast across the coastal plains.

The chance for thunderstorms will diminish late this evening as temperatures cool and the Dry Line retreats back to West Texas.  Under a mostly cloudy sky, low temperatures Tuesday morning will include the low and mid 60s across the Hill Country and near 68-70 degrees at most other locations.

Tuesday's weather is shaping up to be partly cloudy, breezy and quite warm.  The focus for rain and thunderstorms looks to be across the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor where the Dry Line is forecast to again push east out of West Texas.  The atmosphere across this area is forecast to be a bit more unstable than today's atmosphere.  As a result, the Storm Prediction Center has placed the Hill Country region, extending east to the Interstate 35 corridor under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms through Tuesday evening.  Similar to today, large hail and damaging winds will be the primary severe weather threats.  Even with this set up, the probability for rain will only be near 20-30 percent Tuesday afternoon and evening.  No rain is forecast for areas east of Interstate 35.  Tuesday's temperature looks to be a bit warmer, reaching the low 90s at most locations.  Expect a south wind at 10-15 mph.

Weather conditions Wednesday are forecast to again be partly cloudy, breezy and warm.  The Dry Line is not forecast to surge east out of West Texas, but the atmosphere is forecast to be unstable enough for the development of a few showers and storms in the afternoon and evening.  The probability for rain be near 20 percent.  A weak cold front is forecast to sag south into the northern Hill Country in the late afternoon and evening and may become the focus for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across that area.  The front is forecast to slowly sink south into Central Texas on Thursday, pulling up stationary across the coastal plains region Thursday evening.  I expect a 30-40 percent chance for rain and thunderstorms across the region Thursday into Thursday night.  Rain amounts Wednesday through Thursday are forecast to average between 0.25 and 0.5 inch.  A couple of isolated totals to near 1 inch will be possible.  High temperatures Wednesday will be in the upper 80s but should fall to the low 80s on Thursday.

A brief break in the rainy pattern is forecast Friday afternoon through Saturday as the weak from dissipates.  High temperatures both days will be in the mid and upper 80s.  Another chance for rain and thunderstorms is forecast to develop Sunday into Monday when a wave of low pressure tracks into South Texas out of northern Mexico.  As of now, rain amounts are forecast to be between 0.25 and 0.5 inches.  Long-range forecasts suggest another chance for rain will occur next Wednesday and Thursday when yet another wave of low pressure pushes east out of Mexico.  Similar rain amounts are forecast.  High temperatures each day next week are forecast to be around 90 degrees with low temperatures near 70-72 degrees.

 

Thge latest 7-day National Weather 7-day rainfall outlook calls for general totals of 1-1.5 inches across the Hill Country, near 0.5-1 inch across Central Texas and between 0.25 and 0.50 inch across the coastal plains.

 

National Weather Service rain forecast for the period from 7 pm Monday through 7 pm next Monday:

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Bob

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