Quiet, dry and hot weather conditions will be in place across the region over the holiday weekend. Friday morning's analysis showed a broad ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere stretching from northern Mexico to the Lower Mississippi Valley. The ridge is currently centered over Far West Texas but is forecast to slowly shift to North Texas and the southern Plains states over the weekend. The ridge will cause dry, stable and hot weather conditions across Texas this weekend, continuing through late next week. The only exception to the dry pattern will be along the middle Texas coast where a few isolated rain showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and again Saturday afternoon. Spotty totals to around a half inch will be possible both days. Dry conditions are forecast to take hold across the coastal region Monday and remain in place through late next week. The ridge is forecast to remain across Texas all of next week, continuing into next weekend.
With the center of the ridge moving closer to Central Texas, the temperature is expected grow hotter over the next few days. Today's temperature is forecast to reach the middle 90s. Mid to upper 90s are forecast Saturday and upper 90s are forecast Sunday and Monday. High temperatures Tuesday through Friday are forecast to generally be around 98-100 degrees. Taking into account the high relative humidity levels, heat index readings are forecast to top out around 105 degrees beginning Sunday, continuing through most of next week. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the mid 70s Saturday and Sunday mornings, then rise to the upper 70s beginning Monday morning.
Light southerly winds at 5-10 mph are forecast today. Wind speeds do look to increase to a range of 10-15 mph Saturday afternoon due to a tightening pressure gradient. That south breeze at 10-15 mph is forecast to continue through at least the middle of next week.
Looking out longer term, today's long-range solutions indicate there will be very few changes in the weather pattern the second week of July as the high pressure ridge continues in place across the southern Plains states. A weak disturbance may cause a few spotty showers next Sunday or Monday. Otherwise, hot and dry weather conditions are forecast, with high temperatures staying around 98-100 degrees.Update on the Tropical Atlantic
Weather conditions across the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico are quiet and there are no systems which pose a threat for tropical development over the next 5 days.June Weather Review
June rainfall was generally 1 to 2 inches below normal across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions. June was the first month since February to have below normal rainfall. This transition to below normal rainfall coincided with the demise of El Nino which occurred in early June. The Pacific is currently neutral but is expected to transition to La Nina this fall. La Nina often causes a drier than normal weather pattern across Texas during the fall and winter months. Rainfall was actually 1 to 2 inches above normal across the middle Texas coast. However, a small area over southern Matagorda County recorded over 10 inches of rain. LCRA's automated gauge located 1 mile south of Matagorda recorded 11.6 inches for the month.June rainfall departure from normal (courtesy National Weather Service)
In Austin, Camp Mabry recorded 2.61 inches, which was 1.72 inches below normal. Austin-Bergstrom reported 2.63 inches, which was 2.00 inches below normal.
The temperature in June averaged close to 1 degree above normal at most locations.
I hope everyone has a safe and enjoyable holiday weekend. If you're going to be outside, be sure to keep yourself well hydrated and take occasional breaks from the hot sun.