Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

While much focus in the short term will be on today’s solar eclipse (and rightfully so), full attention needs to be placed on an episode of potentially significant severe weather likely to affect Central Texas, the Hill Country, and the coastal Plains region beginning mid to late afternoon, continuing into tonight and again on Tuesday. It should be emphasized that only a short time period may exist between eclipse events and the initiation of strong to severe thunderstorms, so those with outdoor events may wish to encourage quick departures. The next 48 hours look to have the most favorable severe weather setup our area has seen so far this calendar year.

Weather Discussion

While the weather is predicted to stay dry through the eclipse window, changes are forecast to quickly take place by mid-afternoon as moisture increases ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure. High-resolution forecasts call for rain and thunderstorm to develop across the middle Texas coast by early afternoon, with the activity spreading north to parts of Central Texas and the eastern Hill Country during the mid and late afternoon. Forecasts call for the atmosphere to become increasingly unstable this afternoon, and could support the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. Today’s primary severe weather threats will be large hail and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. There will also be a low-end threat for a couple of isolated tornadoes—mainly for areas north and northeast of Austin. The Strom Prediction Center has placed much of the area under a Slight Risk, or 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms through Monday night.

Most forecast solutions call for the thunderstorm activity to weaken early this evening, with a break from rain and storms expected late evening till just after midnight.

Forecasts call for the atmosphere across the region to become increasingly unstable beginning late tonight and toward daybreak Tuesday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are predicted to develop across the area during this time period. Showers and thunderstorms are then forecast to expand in areal coverage through the morning hours and into the afternoon. Several parameters will be in place that are expected to allow some of these storms to become strong and severe. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Austin metro and much of Central Texas under an Enhanced Risk, or a 3 out of 5 risk, for severe thunderstorms. The rest of the region has been placed under a 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms.

While large hail, damaging winds, and dangerous lightning will be the primary severe weather threats, there will also be a secondary threat for isolated tornadoes—mainly in the Enhanced Risk area.

A lull in the precipitation is forecast to take place late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. However, another period of rain and thunderstorms is forecast to occur Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Some of the storms may also be strong to severe. The rain activity is predicted to taper off by midday Wednesday as the trough to our west finally moves off to the northeast.

Do note, moderate to heavy rain will be possible from some of the storms both Monday afternoon and again on Tuesday. A few spots could see heavy downpours which could lead to some isolated flash flooding. In general, totals of 1-1.5 inches are forecast across much of the area through Wednesday morning.

Fingers crossed for some breaks in the clouds to persist for today’s eclipse!

Bob

Here’s an update on weather conditions for Monday’s Total Eclipse, plus an outlook for next week. The weather pattern looks to be trending wet and quite active shortly after Monday’s eclipse.

Eclipse Day Weather Highlights

• The latest forecast solutions are showing little change in the weather outlook for Monday. Forecasts continue to call for a mostly cloudy sky across the region through the midday hours on Monday.
• While some breaks in the low-level clouds will be possible, considerable high-level clouds are still forecast to be in place, creating less than ideal conditions for viewing the eclipse.
• Some fluctuation in the forecast will still be possible over the next couple of days, but chances for optimal sky conditions to view the eclipse will be less than 10 percent.

Forecasts continue to call for a trough of low pressure to move into the Southwestern U.S. late Sunday into Monday.  Out ahead of the trough, southerly winds off the Gulf of Mexico are predicted to increase beginning Sunday evening, causing a surge of moisture and low, dense clouds into Central Texas and the Hill Country. While a few small breaks in the low clouds will be possible by midday Monday, forecasts continue to call for a considerable high-level clouds to also blanket the sky. Unfortunately, even these high clouds are predicted to be somewhat thick and unfavorable for getting a good view of the eclipsed sun.

Any breaks in the clouds that might happen to develop midday will be short-lived. Forecasts call for clouds to quickly thicken up by mid-afternoon. There will be a 50 percent chance scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the region after about 3 pm. Some of these storms may even be strong to severe.

The National Weather Service’s cloud forecast for early Monday afternoon calls for at least 75 percent cloud coverage across the area in its most likely scenario:

Weather Discussion for the Weekend and Next Week

Sunny and breezy weather will be in place Friday afternoon. Expect southerly winds at 10-15 mph, with occasional gusts to 25 mph Friday afternoon through Friday night. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low and mid-80s. Lows Saturday morning will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

On Saturday, a trough of low pressure is forecast to lift northeast from New Mexico up to the Central Plains, dragging a Pacific cold front into the state. Forecasts call for the front to reach the western Hill Country Saturday evening, moving across Central Texas Saturday night. The front is predicted to stall just east of Interstate 35 Sunday morning, then move back to the north as a warm front Saturday night. With limited moisture in place, no rain is forecast with the front.

Saturday’s weather will include widespread morning clouds, followed by a partly cloudy sky in the afternoon. It will be another breezy and warm day. Expect southerly winds at 10-20 mph, with occasional gusts to 30 mph through Saturday evening. Wind speeds should decrease after midnight Saturday night. The sky is predicted to be sunny to partly cloudy on Sunday.

• High temperatures Saturday are forecast to be near 80 degrees.
• Lows Sunday morning will include the low 50s across the Hill Country, the upper 50s to low 60s across Central Texas, and the low 60s across the coastal plains.
• High temperatures Sunday are forecast to be in the low 80s.
• Lows Monday morning will include the mid and upper 50s across the Hill Country, the upper 50s to low 60s across Central Texas, and the mid-60s across the coastal plains.

A large trough of low pressure is predicted to move into the Southwestern U.S. late Sunday and become nearly stationary. As mentioned in the eclipse discussion, flow out ahead of the trough is expected cause a surge of clouds and moisture north into Central Texas and the Hill Country beginning Sunday night, continuing throughout the day on Monday. As moisture levels increase Monday afternoon, an expansive area of light rain showers and scattered thunderstorms is forecast to develop across the region and continue through Monday night. The probability for rain will be around 50 percent. There are early indications some of the developing thunderstorms could be strong to severe. Rain amounts up to a quarter inch are forecast. The Storm Prediction Center is highlighting the northeastern Hill Country and the northern counties of Central Texas, including Austin, for the possibility of severe storms:

There will be an increased chance for periods of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms across the entire region Tuesday through Wednesday as the southwestern trough slowly wobbles east into West Texas. The combination of the slow-moving trough and a very moist flow off the Gulf of Mexico is expected to result in multiple rounds of rain showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Wednesday. Moderate to occasionally heavy rain is forecast. The rain is forecast to linger into Thursday morning, then wrap up Thursday afternoon as the upper trough finally moves off to the Mississippi Valley.

There will be a potential for significant amounts of rain. The latest National Weather Service’s forecast calls for widespread totals of 1-2 inches, with isolated higher totals possible.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm Next Friday:

Dry and breezy weather is forecast for next Thursday afternoon and Friday. Sunny weather looks to continue into next weekend as well. Expect high temperatures in the 70s, with lows in the 50s.

Colorado State University Hurricane Outlook Was Released Thursday

Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Colorado State University released their outlook for the upcoming hurricane season on Thursday, and it is expected to be an extremely active season!!! The outlook calls for 23 named storms, 11 of them hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. Klotzbach stated this is most active forecast he has ever made. The combination of unusually warm sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic and a switch to La Nina by the heart of the season were behind the high numbers forecast.

Bob

Weather conditions are quiet as we start off the new week and the new month. However, a more active period of weather with a threat for strong to severe storms is expected to take place Monday evening and Monday night when a cold front moves across the area. In advance of the front, mostly cloudy, breezy, and warm weather will be in place Monday afternoon. Monday’s temperatures is forecast to generally reach the mid-80s. Expect a southerly wind with speeds of 10-20 mph, with occasional gusts to 30 mph.

Attention is focused on Monday evening and Monday night for the possible development of strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the Hill Country and the Austin/Central Texas region. At that time, a large trough of low pressure pushing east out of the southern Rockies will be helping to push a Pacific cold front east out of West Texas. Forecasts call for the front to reach the western Hill Country late Monday afternoon/early Monday evening, then push southeast to the Interstate 35 corridor just before, to around midnight. The front is forecast to move southeast overnight, pushing off the middle Texas coast after daybreak Tuesday.

Monday’s analysis shows a moist and somewhat unstable atmosphere in place across North and Central Texas. High resolution forecasts call for an area of rain showers and thunderstorms to develop along the cold front when it reaches the central Hill Country this evening. The rain and thunderstorms are predicted to push southeast with the cold front overnight. The latest timing puts the rain and thunderstorms into the Austin/I-35 corridor sometime around 11 pm to 1 am.

While the greatest threat for severe storms is expected to occur across North Texas and the DFW area, some of the storms across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions may also be strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the eastern half of the Hill Country and most of Central Texas under a Slight Risk, or a 2 out of 5 risk, for severe thunderstorms overnight. The primary severe weather threat will be large hail. Damaging downburst winds will be a secondary threat.

The rain and storms are forecast to end fairly quickly behind the cold front Monday night. The sky will then clear from west to east overnight. Rain amounts look to only average around a quarter inch. A couple of isolated totals of 0.5 to 1 inch will be possible.

Drier and slightly cooler air will follow the cold front on Tuesday. Highs will range from the low 70s across the Hill Country, to the low 80s near the coast.

A Canadian cold front is forecast to push southeast across the area Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening, ushering in breezy conditions and cooler temperatures. Expect northwesterly winds with speeds of 10-15 mph and gusts to 30 mph Tuesday night. Sunny and dry weather is forecast Wednesday through Saturday in the wake of the cold front. Expect mild days and cool nights.

• Daily high temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 70s.
• Lows Wednesday through Friday mornings will include the low and mid-40s across the Hill Country, the upper 40s across Central Texas and the upper 40s to low 50s across the coastal region.
• Lows Saturday morning are forecast to be in the mid-50s.

Forecasts call for a change in the weather pattern beginning next Sunday when a large trough of low pressure from the Pacific pushes east to the southern Rockies. The trough is forecast to lift northeast to the Plains state on Monday. This system is predicted to pull considerable clouds and moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico next Sunday into Monday—somewhat similar to what we saw this past weekend. A weak cold front associated with the trough is forecast to push east across Texas Sunday and stall somewhere just east of Interstate 35 on Monday. This atmospheric setup is expected to cause the development of scattered light rain showers across the region Sunday morning, continuing through next Monday.

Additional chances for rain are forecast next Tuesday through Thursday as another Pacific trough of low pressure slowly pushes east across Texas and the southern Plains states. Conditions appear favorable for development of widespread rain across the region with this next system. There are early indications for rain totals of 1-2 inches. Temperatures next week are expected to remain mild, with highs in the 70s to near 80 degrees and lows in the 60s.

Weather Forecast for Monday’s Total Eclipse

While it’s still too early to know the specifics for eclipse day, April 8^th, confidence is increasing in a forecast for widespread clouds and possible periods of light rain. The outlook for favorable viewing conditions continues to deteriorate as the event approaches. Cloud probabilities from some of the most reliable computer forecast solutions for clear or mostly clear skies across North and South Texas are now near zero. The forecast for less than 50% sky cloud coverage is currently a 1 in 4 chance at best along the path of totality.

As noted in the discussion above, periods of rain are forecast Sunday through Monday. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center is calling for widespread totals of 0.25 to 0.5 inches through 7 pm Monday.

NWS Rainfall Outlook for the Period 7 pm Saturday through 7 pm Monday:

While this outlook is incredibly disappointing, all it takes is a well-timed break in the clouds to allow for a magnificent view. For example, rain and storms disrupted the 2017 eclipse in the Kansas City area. But in the midst of the inclement weather, there were some breaks in the clouds during totality. The forecasts could still change some over the next few days.

I’ll be passing along additional weather updates throughout the week.

Bob

The month of March will be “going out like a lamb” as weather conditions are expected to remain dry and quiet through Easter weekend. The most noticeable weather changes heading into the weekend will be the warmer temperatures and gusty southerly breezes. Weekend weather conditions are looking great, and it will definitely be feeling a lot like spring.

A strengthening pressure gradient between a developing area of low pressure over the southern Plains states and high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to cause breezy conditions Friday through Sunday. Forecasts call for sustained southerly winds between 10 and 15 mph, with occasional gusts up to 30/35 mph through the weekend.

The sky looks to be mostly sunny Friday afternoon. Saturday will start off with widespread clouds, but the sky will become mostly sunny by midday. Easter Sunday looks to have a partly to mostly cloudy sky as high-level cirrus clouds spread in the from the west.

Warmer daytime and nighttime temperatures are forecast today through Sunday thanks to the southerly breezes originating off the Gulf of Mexico.

• High temperatures Friday are forecast to be in the upper 70s.
• High temperatures Saturday are predicted to be near 78-80 degrees.
• High temperatures Sunday are forecast to be in the low and mid-80s.
• Low temperatures Saturday and Sunday mornings are predicted to be in the low 60s.
• Low temperatures Monday morning are forecast to be in the upper 60s.

Some changes in our weather are predicted to take place early next week when a large trough of low pressure begins to lift northeast out of the Southwestern U.S. This system is expected to drag a cold front southeast across Texas Monday evening into Monday night. Ahead of the front, mostly cloudy, breezy and warm weather will continue on Monday, with highs in the mid and upper 80s. Monday night, conditions appear favorable for the development of scatted rain showers and thunderstorms ahead of and along the cold front as far south as roughly Intestate 10. The probability for rain will be near 40-50 percent. There are indications some of the storms may become strong to severe across the northern counties of Central Texas. The Storm Prediction Center is highlighting North Texas, extending as far south as about Austin for the potential for severe storms Monday night.

Rain amounts are not forecast to be very high, with most totals averaging less than a quarter inch. Unfortunately, the rain is not expected to make into areas south of Interstate 10.

A dry weather pattern will set up Tuesday and is forecast to continue through late next week. Slightly cooler air will spread into the area behind the cold front Tuesday, and this slightly cooler air should persist through Thursday. Expect daily high temperatures in the mid-70s. Lows will range from the mid and upper 40s across the Hill Country to near 50 degrees across the coastal plains. Forecasts call for dry and slightly warmer weather next Friday, continuing through next weekend.

Early Look at Eclipse Day Sky Forecast

Confidence has increased slightly that an active weather pattern could bring moisture and cloud cover with a chance of rain to our region around the day of the eclipse. The latest forecast model consensus has trended cloudier than what is typical for April 8th, with a roughly 30% chance for favorable viewing conditions across the Hill Country and Central Texas.

But keep in mind, we’re 10 days out from April 8^th and there’s still considerable uncertainty in the forecast and with the development of a large trough of low pressure out to our west at that time. Don’t change any plans just yet. The weather forecast for eclipse day will become clearer over the next few days. Stay tuned for additional updates.

Have a Happy Easter and a great weekend!

Bob

An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms spread east across the region Monday morning into early afternoon. Totals were heaviest across the Hill Country, where amounts were generally between a quarter and a half inch. For areas along and east of Interstate 35, most totals averaged less than a quarter inch. This unfortunately looks to be the last significant rain our region will see for the month of March as generally dry weather is forecast Tuesday through next Sunday. Month to date, totals are running close to an inch below normal across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and between 1 and 2 inches above normal across the coastal plains.

Sunny, breezy and mild weather is developing in the wake of Monday morning’s rain. A strong pressure gradient behind the departing system is expected to cause westerly winds with speeds of 15-25 mph and occasional gusts as high as 35 mph. Monday’s temperature is predicted to climb to near 78-80 degrees at most locations.

Cooler weather is on the way! A large trough of low pressure moving east across the Plains states is forecast to push a Canadian cold front south across our region late Monday evening through Monday night. No rain is expected with the front. However, temperatures will trend noticeably cooler overnight and into Tuesday morning. Sunny weather will be in place Tuesday.

• Lows Tuesday morning are forecast to be near 38-40 degrees across the Hill Country, in the mid-40s across Central Texas, and in the low 50s across the coastal plains.
• High temperatures Tuesday are forecast to be in the upper 60s to low 70s.
• Low temperatures Wednesday morning are forecast to generally be in the mid and upper 40s.

There will be a slight chance for a few rain showers and a couple of isolated thunderstorms Wednesday when a weak trough of low pressure swings southeast out of the southern Plains. Relatively dry air at the surface is expected to keep the rainfall spotty and light in nature, with rain amounts averaging less than a tenth of an inch. Most locations are expected to stay dry. Under a partly cloudy sky, the temperature is forecast to warm close to 70 degrees.

Wednesday night into early Thursday morning looks to be the last night of cool temperatures this week. Lows Thursday morning will range from the low 40s across the Hill Country, to the upper 40s near the coast.

Dry and warm weather is forecast Thursday through Sunday as a stable ridge of high pressure slides over Texas out of Mexico. The sky will be sunny Thursday through Friday, with a partly cloudy sky forecast for Saturday and Easter Sunday. Humidity levels look to increase over the weekend, and will make conditions feel somewhat muggy and sticky.

• High temperatures Thursday and Friday are forecast to be around 78-80 degrees.
• High temperatures Saturday and Sunday are predicted to be in the mid-80s.
• Lows are forecast to be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Next week, a chance for scattered rain showers looks to develop Tuesday into Wednesday as a weak cold front sinks south into Texas out of the Plains. As of now, rain amounts are expected to be low—somewhere around a quarter inch.

Temperatures are forecast to be warm, with a high Monday and Tuesday in mid to upper 80s. Highs Wednesday through Friday are predicted to be in the 70s. Lows next week are forecast to be in the 60s and 50s.

A Very Early Weather Outlook for April 8^th

The weather for April 8^th is just starting to enter the timeframe of the long-range forecast solutions. Keep in mind, the model solutions this far out are not great for predicting clouds or no clouds—especially with any spring-type weather systems that might be moving into our area. The latest ensemble solutions do point to a somewhat unsettled weather pattern across Central Texas around April 8^th as a broad trough of low pressure develops across the southwestern U.S. This could possibly mean a fair amount of clouds.

Again, this is a very early forecast and it could very well change in the coming days as the forecast solutions get a better handle on the weather pattern for that time period. I will provide additional updates over the next two weeks.

Bob

Waves of low pressure moving across Texas Wednesday through Thursday brought periods of rain and thunderstorms to our area. The heaviest rain by far occurred across the coastal plains, between La Grange and Bay City, where totals of 1-3 inches were recorded. The Wharton area was the big winner, with a 2-day total of just over 3 inches. Across the rest of the region, totals generally ranged between a quarter and a half inch, with a couple of isolated totals near 1 inch. Unfortunately, with the way the rain took shape, the western half of the Hill Country received little to no rain.

Dry and mild air is spreading into Texas in the wake of Thursday’s rain and storms. Sunny and breezy weather will be in place Friday afternoon. Expect a northwesterly breeze at 10-15 mph, with occasional gusts to 25 mph. Afternoon temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid and upper 70s.

A reinforcing shot of dry and just slightly cooler air is predicted to spread south across the area Friday night into Saturday morning. The weekend weather is shaping up to be dry and mild as a weak ridge of high pressure slides over Texas out of Mexico. Light winds are forecast Saturday, but windy conditions look to develop Sunday into Sunday night as a deep area of low pressure develops across the southern Rockies. Sunday’s wind is predicted to be in the range of 20-25 mph, with gusts as high as 40/45 mph.

• High temperatures Saturday and Sunday are forecast to be in the mid-70s.
• Lows Sunday morning will generally be in the mid-50s.
• Lows Monday morning will range from the mid-50s west, to the mid-60s near the coast.

A chance for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms is forecast to develop across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions after midnight Sunday night when a Pacific cold front pushes southeast out of Northwest Texas. Forecasts call for an area of showers and scattered thunderstorms to develop ahead of and along the front as it slowly tracks to the southeast. The area of rain is predicted to exit the Hill Country just after sunrise Monday, Central Texas around mid-morning, and the coastal region by midday. The probability for rain at any given location will be around 50-60 percent. As of now, it appears the best zone for severe storms with the cold front will be over East and Northeast Texas. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm will be possible across our region, but widespread severe storms are not anticipated.

Rain amounts between Sunday night and midday Monday are not forecast to be very heavy, with most totals averaging less than a half inch.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Friday through 7 pm Wednesday:

The sky is forecast to become partly cloudy Monday afternoon. Expect a high temperatures in the low 70s.

Forecasts call for a second, brief window for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms to take shape after midnight Monday night, continuing till around daybreak Tuesday when a wave of low pressure swings east across North Texas. The probability for rain will only be near 20-30 percent. Rain amounts, if any, should total less than a quarter inch.

Sunshine and cooler temperatures are forecast Tuesday through Wednesday in the wake of a Canadian cold front that looks to push south across the area early Tuesday morning.

• Lows Tuesday morning will range from mid-40s across the Hill Country, to the mid-50s towards the coast.
• High temperatures Tuesday are forecast to be in the upper 60s.
• Lows Wednesday and Thursday mornings are forecast to be in the mid and upper 40s.
• High temperatures Wednesday are predicted to be in the low 70s.

Sunny and mild weather is forecast late next week, continuing into next weekend. High temperatures are predicted to be in the upper 70s late week, warming to the low 80s over the weekend. Lows will be mostly in the 50s. Mild temperatures are expected to continue through the week of April 1st.

The next opportunity for rain is forecast to take shape around April 1^st and 2^nd, when a large trough of low pressure sets up across the western U.S.

Watch for the Planet Mercury this Weekend and Next Week

The elusive planet Mercury will be quite visible this weekend and over the next few days, but don’t delay. Mercury will be visible low in the western evening twilight, about 45 to 60 minutes after sunset. Look for it almost due west, about two fists at arm’s length below or lower right of the bright planet Jupiter. Watch Mercury fade rapidly next week from a prominent magnitude –0.4 Monday, to a bashful +1.0 late week (a loss of nearly three quarters of its light) even as it remains at about the same height.

Have a great weekend!

Bob

There will be two periods of possible strong to severe thunderstorms across our region Thursday as a remnant trough of low pressure over the Desert Southwest finally moves off to the east.

The first period for strong to severe storms looks to occur in a window roughly between 3 am and 8 am Thursday morning. This is when a small wave of low pressure ahead of the remnant trough is forecast to track east across South Texas out of Mexico. A warm front is forecast to spread inland across the coastal plains region tonight, bringing a return of warm, moist, and unstable air. With atmosphere lift increasing, high resolution guidance indicates scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may develop over the area from just east of Interstate 35, southeast to the coast. The Storm Prediction Center has placed this area under a Marginal Risk, or 1 out of 5 risk, for severe thunderstorms. The primary severe weather threat will be large hail, followed by damaging downburst winds.

All of the early morning thunderstorm activity is predicted to exit the region by mid-morning Thursday.

Attention then turns to Thursday afternoon and evening when the remnant trough of low pressure is forecast to track east across the northern half of the state. Forecasts call for an area of rain showers and thunderstorms to develop across the western Hill Country just after midday, with the area of rain and storms spreading to the east Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Once again, several ingredients are predicted to be in place that may allow some of the storms to become strong to severe. The Strom Prediction Center has placed most of the region under a Slight Risk, or a 2 out of 5 risk,  for severe thunderstorms through Thursday evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary severe weather threats. Some pockets of moderate to occasionally heavy will also be possible.

The probability for rain and storms Thursday afternoon will be near 80-90 percent.

The chance for rain is forecast to diminish after midnight Thursday night as drier air spreads behind the departing upper trough.

Rainfall Thursday through Thursday evening is forecast to be heaviest for areas located east of Interstate 35. Forecasts call for totals to average less than a tenth of an inch across the western Hill Country and be between a quarter and a half inch across the eastern Hill Country. For Central Texas and the middle Texas coast, totals are predicted to range between 0.5 and 1.5 inches.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Wednesday through 7 pm Friday:

A mostly sunny sky is predicted for Friday and Saturday. Expect high temperatures both days to be in the 70s. Clouds will increase on Sunday. Another chance for rain and storms is forecast for Monday.

Bob

Strong to severe thunderstorms developed across the Concho Valley and western Hill Country early Friday. These storms tracked to the east-northeast, dropping large hail across parts of McCulloch and San Saba Counties. The storms also produced a swath of 0.5 to 1 inch totals of rain over the area between Sonora and Brownwood. Other area of showers and scattered thunderstorms spread east across Central Texas around sunrise. Totals here were generally less than a quarter inch. As of midday, all the morning shower and thunderstorms activity had pushed east of the Hill Country and Central Texas.

An active and unsettled weather pattern is forecast for the next two to three days as a weak cold front slowly sags south through the region and several waves of low pressure track northeast into Central Texas out of Mexico. With higher moisture levels now in place, conditions have become favorable for the development of pockets of moderate to heavy rain over the next couple of days.

A lull in the thunderstorm activity is forecast across the region through early afternoon. However, showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop across most of the area by about 2 or 3 pm as the atmosphere grows increasingly unstable. Due to the increased instability, some of the thunderstorms may become severe. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area roughly along and south of U.S. Highway 290, including the Austin metro, under a Slight Risk (a 2 out of 5 risk) for severe thunderstorms through Friday night. Do note the area south of a line stretching from Kerrville to New Braunfels has been placed under an Enhanced Risk, or 3 out of 5 risk, for severe thunderstorms. Forecasts call for showers and thunderstorms to develop close to the position of the frontal boundary, then move to the east-northeast. The showers and thunderstorm activity is forecast to continue into Friday evening, diminishing sometime late Friday evening.

Today’s primary severe weather risk will be large to very large hail. (hail diameter in excess of baseball size). Damaging downburst winds will also be possible, particularly if thunderstorm clusters hold together. Some of today’s storms may also produce heavy rainfall which could lead to isolated flash flooding. Rain totals through daybreak Saturday are forecast to generally average around a half inch, with isolated totals of 1-2 inches possible.

Saturday through Saturday night is shaping up to be a cloudy and wet period across the region as the weak cold front stalls somewhere around Intestate 10. Waves of low pressure are forecast to lift northeast out of Mexico throughout the day, each causing periods of rain with scattered thunderstorms. There will be a low-end for threat some of Saturday’s storms to become severe across the Hill Country and the northern half of Central Texas. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area south and southeast of Austin under a Slight Risk (or 2 out of 5 risk) for severe thunderstorms through Saturday night. The primary severe risk once again looks to large hail.

Forecast solutions call for the atmosphere on Saturday to be unusually moist, meaning moderate to heavy rain will be possible with the waves of rain. Rainfall forecasts for the period through daybreak Sunday call for widespread totals of 1-2 inches, with isolated heavier totals.

For Sunday, rain showers and scattered thunderstorms look to continue into early afternoon as additional waves of low pressure move over the region. The rain activity is expected to decrease in coverage across the area Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening as drier air spreads in from the north. The probability for rain will be near 60 percent Sunday morning, decreasing to 30 percent Sunday afternoon. Mostly cloudy and dry weather is forecast Sunday night. Rain amounts on Sunday are predicted to generally average around a quarter inch.

Cumulative rainfall totals from the National Weather Service for the period through daybreak Monday call are forecast to be between 1 and 1.5 inches across the Hill Country, and between 1 and 3 inches for most other locations.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Friday through 7 pm Sunday:

The outlook for next week calls for mostly sunny and slightly cooler weather Monday and Tuesday, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. A chance for showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast Wednesday and Thursday. Rain amounts over the two days are forecast to average between a quarter and a half inch.

Bob

Key Messages

• There will be a very low-end threat for the development of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across the eastern Hill Country and the northern counties of Central Texas (including Austin) late Thursday afternoon and evening.
• Friday afternoon through Friday night will bring a greater potential for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms to the entire region. Primary severe weather threats will be large to very large hail and damaging winds.
• Some of Friday’s storms could produce locally heavy rainfall, with high rainfall rates and the potential for isolated flash flooding.
• There is high confidence for periods of widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms across the region Saturday through Sunday. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible.
• Total rainfall between Thursday and Sunday is forecast to average close to 2 inches for the area from eastern Hill Country to the middle Texas coast. Isolated higher totals will be possible.

Discussion

An active weather pattern is coming together that will offer up several opportunities for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms late Thursday afternoon through late Sunday.

Thursday will feature a mostly cloudy to overcast sky as clouds and moisture spread into Texas off the Gulf and the eastern Pacific. Today, forecasters will be closely monitoring progress of the dry line as it pushes east out of West Texas. Predictions call for the dry line to reach a location across the western or central Hill Country by late afternoon. The atmosphere will be primed for thunderstorms to develop along the boundary this afternoon. However, a strong stable layer in place in the lower atmosphere is expected to limit the development of thunderstorms along and east of the dry line. There will be slight (20 percent) chance a couple of isolated thunderstorms could break through the cap and develop somewhere across the northern Hill Country and possibly as far east as the Austin area. Should any thunderstorms happen to develop, they are expected to quickly become severe. The primary severe weather threats will be large hail and damaging downburst winds. There will be a 30 percent chance for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region late Thursday evening through daybreak Friday.

For Friday, scattered rain showers are forecast to develop and spread north across the area throughout the morning. By afternoon, there will be an increasing chance for widespread rain showers and scattered thunderstorms across northern and central Hill Country along with the Austin/Central Texas region as a weak cold front slowly sags south out of North Texas. Atmospheric conditions ahead of the front are forecast to be favorable for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms across the region, but especially across Central Texas. The Strom Prediction Center has placed all of Central Texas, including Austin, under a Slight Risk (a 2 out of 5 risk) for severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday evening. The remainder of the region has been placed under a 1 out of 5 risk. Severe weather threats will mainly be large to very large hail and damaging winds. However, an isolated tornado or two cannot be completely ruled out.

Friday night, the focus for moderate to heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms is expected to shift to the southern half of Central Texas and the middle Texas coast as the weak cold front continues to sag south.

Rainfall Friday through Friday night is forecast to generally average between 0.5 and 1 inch, with isolated totals to near 2 inches possible

A cloudy and wet pattern is forecast to continue Saturday through Sunday as additional waves of low pressure spread north out of Mexico. The first of these waves is forecast to arrive Saturday morning and is expected to cause the development of widespread rain showers and scattered thunderstorms across the region The activity is predicted to continue off and on Saturday afternoon through about midday Sunday. The probability for rain through the period will be around 70 percent. Rain amounts Saturday through Sunday are forecast to generally average around 1 inch, with isolated totals to near 2 inches possible.

The chance for rain is forecast to decrease Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening as drier and slightly cooler air spreads south behind a weak cold front.

The National Weather Service’s rainfall forecast for the period between Thursday and Sunday calls for widespread totals of around 1.5 to 2 inches for the eastern Hill Country, all of Central Texas, and the middle Texas coast. Slightly lower totals are forecast for the western and central Hill Country. Isolated totals to near 4 inches will be possible.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 am Tuesday:

Looking out into next week, mostly cloudy and dry weather is forecast Monday.  There looks to be a slight chance for rain next Tuesday, followed a better chance for rain next Wednesday into Thursday.

Bob