Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

A small taste of some fall-like weather is forecast across the region this weekend and early next week as a cold front pushes all the way south into the Gulf of Mexico. Lows Sunday through Tuesday morning are predicted to be in the upper 50s to low 60s. But before we see this change in the weather, there will be more clouds along with a slight chance for showers Friday afternoon and Friday evening.

Friday’s weather maps showed a broad area of low pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere centered just off the middle and upper Texas coast. This is the same low that has been over the area for the past week. Forecasts call for the low to finally begin moving off to the south Friday night into Saturday while it merges with the approaching cold front . Similar to what we saw on Thursday, the counterclockwise circulation around the low is expected to push clouds and abundant moisture from northeast to southwest across the eastern half of the state throughout the afternoon. As temperatures warm Friday afternoon, there will be a 20 percent chance for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions. Heavy rain is not expected. For locations that do see rain, totals are forecast to stay below a quarter inch. Expect a northerly wind at 10-20 mph, with occasional gusts to 30 mph.

For the middle Texas coast, there will be a somewhat better chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and Friday evening due to the area’s closer proximity to the low. The probability for rain will be near 40 percent. The threat for excessive rain and localized flooding appears to have ended. Totals through Friday evening are forecast to average around a quarter inch. Expect a northerly wind at 10-20 mph, with occasional gusts to 30 mph.

All of the shower activity is forecast to diminish Friday evening.

A cold front is predicted to push south across the region Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon, ushering in slightly cooler and noticeably drier air. After a long summer, this air should feel quite refreshing! The front is expected to reinforce the gusty northerly winds already in place. Forecasts call for northerly winds with speeds of 10-20 mph, and gusts to 25/30 mph Saturday through Sunday. No rain is expected with the front. The sky will be sunny Saturday through Monday.

• High temperatures Saturday and Sunday are predicted to generally be in the middle 80s, warming to the upper 80s Monday
• Lows Sunday and Monday mornings will range from the mid and upper 50s across the Hill Country, to the upper 50s to low 60s across Central Texas, to the mid to upper 60s across the coastal plains
• Lows Tuesday morning are forecast to be mostly in the low and mid-60s, with upper 60s to low 70s near the coast

Next Week

The sunny and fall-like weather pattern is forecast to come to a fairly abrupt end Tuesday as of southerly breezes bring a return of warm and humid air. A somewhat complex weather pattern looks to take shape over the western Gulf of Mexico next week, with this weekend’s cold front stalling over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, a tropical wave currently located over the western Caribbean Sea is predicted to track to the northwestern Gulf  and merge with the stalled cold front. Circulation around the tropical wave is expected bring a surge of clouds and tropical moisture from the coast, north into Central Texas and the Hill Country beginning Tuesday, continuing through late week. There is quite a bit of uncertainty as to just how the pattern will evolve. The National Hurricane Center indicates the tropical wave over the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize could develop into a tropical depression and be situated somewhere over the southwestern or western Gulf of Mexico during the early or middle part of next week. Depending on the track and speed of the system, it could bring heavy rain to parts of the middle Texas coast.

The chance for rain and thunderstorms is forecast to increase across the coastal area Tuesday and across the rest of the region Wednesday trough Friday. The National Weather Service’s rainfall forecast through 7 pm next Friday calls for totals of at least 1-2 inches for locations east of Interstate 35. Considerably higher totals are forecast for areas close to coast.

High temperatures next week are forecast to generally be near 88-90 degrees.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 am Friday through 7 am Next Friday:

Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center forecasters are monitoring tropical waves over the northwestern Atlantic, the central tropical Atlantic, and the northwestern Caribbean Sea/Gulf of Mexico, The northwest and eastern Atlantic systems have both been given just a slight chance for tropical development over the next 5 to 7 days.

Of special interest is the tropical wave located over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. This system is producing a disorganized area showers and thunderstorms.  Forecasters call for the wave to move into the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, where it could begin to interact with a frontal boundary. A tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves slowly northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. NHC forecasters are giving this system a 40 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

Have a great weekend!

Bob

It was a wet weekend for much of West Texas, the Hill Country, and coastal locations. A nearly stationary area of low pressure over West Texas brought repeated rounds of rain showers and thunderstorms to the area. Doppler radar estimates since Saturday morning show widespread totals of 4 to 6 inches falling over the area from south of San Angelo to northeast of Abilene. There have also been a few pockets of 8 to 10 inch totals. Across the Colorado River basin, gauge totals since Saturday have generally been between 1 and 2 inches across the western Hill Country. Meanwhile, the northern Hill Country, from Brady to north of Brownwood, has received between 2 and 7 inches. Along the middle Texas coast, totals of 1-2 inches were recorded across Matagorda County. Central Texas totals since Saturday have generally been less than a tenth of an inch.

NWS Estimate of Rain Falling  Between 7 am  Saturday and 7 am Tuesday:

Data courtesy NWS West Gulf River Forecast Center

Tuesday’s weather maps continued to show an unsettled pattern across the state. An area of low pressure persists across Northwest Texas, while a weak cold front stretched from Ozona, to Temple, to near Lufkin. Forecasts call for the low pressure system over West Texas to move off to the northeast on Wednesday. The cold front is predicted to slowly push south towards the middle Texas coast late Wednesday.

For Tuesday afternoon Wednesday afternoon, the most favorable area for rain is again forecast to be across West Texas, including the western and northern Hill Country where waves of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue. The probability for rain is forecast to be near 50 percent. Additional totals of 1-3 inches will be possible. Isolated totals to near 5 inches can be expected. The National Weather Service has posted a Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for much of West Texas, including the western and northern Hill Country.

For the eastern Hill Country and Central Texas regions, including Colorado County, periods of light to moderate rain are forecast Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. The probability for rain will be near 50 percent. Totals through Wednesday afternoon are forecast to average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches, with isolated totals to near 1 inch possible.

For Wharton and Matagorda Counties, periods of rain showers and thunderstorms are forecast Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. The probability for rain will be near 60 percent. Totals through Wednesday afternoon are forecast to average between 0.5 and 1 inch, with isolated totals to near 2 inches possible.

The chance for rain is forecast to decrease significantly across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions beginning Wednesday night as the low pressure system moves off to the northeast and drier air spreads in behind the weak cold front. There will be a 20 percent chance for a few lingering isolated rain showers across the area Thursday afternoon.  Expect a partly cloudy to mostly sunny sky. Meanwhile across the coastal plains, a chance for rain showers and thunderstorms looks to continue Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon, with additional totals to near 1 inch possible.

Sunny and dry weather is forecast across the entire region Friday as the cold front pushes further to the south, bringing drier and more stable air to the entire region. Expect high temperatures near 88-90 degrees.

Forecasts call for a second, dry cold front to push south across the area late Friday night into Saturday morning that will bring with it considerably drier air. This drier air is expected to be in place through the weekend and early next week. Weather conditions are forecast to be sunny and dry. Weekend high temperatures are predicted to be near 88-90 degrees. Pleasant evenings and nights are forecast thanks to the drier air. Lows Sunday through Tuesday mornings will include the upper 50s to low 60s across the Hill Country, the low 60s across Central Texas, and the mid-60s across the coastal plains.

The outlook for next week calls for dry conditions throughout the week as Texas comes under the influence of a weak ridge of high pressure situated across northern Mexico and the Desert Southwest. Daily high temperatures are forecast to generally be in the low 90s, with lows in the mid-60s to near 70 degrees.

Tropical Weather Outlook

The area of low pressure which had been parked off the upper Texas coast since Friday has weakened and the system no longer poses a threat for tropical development. The system is forecast to move off to the northeast over the next couple of days.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring three tropical waves that show a low potential for development over the next few days.

The first wave was located over Hispaniola and portions of the central Caribbean Sea.  As this system moves westward, some development is possible when it reaches the western Caribbean Sea and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late this week or over the weekend. NHC forecasters are giving this system a 30 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days. The cold front pushing south across Texas this week should keep this system on a westward/northwestward path toward southern Mexico.

The second wave was located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Some slow development is possible during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward. By the end of the week, however, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for additional development. NHC forecasters are giving this system only a 10 percent chance for development over the next seven days.

The third tropical wave was located over the far eastern Atlantic. Some slow development of this system will be possible during the next few days as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive by the end of the week. NHC forecasters are giving this system a 30 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

Summer 2024 Climate  

Meteorological summer came to an end Saturday, and while August featured a spell of some very hot weather, the summer overall was less hot and a bit wetter, compared to summer 2023.

In Austin, Camp Mabry’s average temperature was 86.7 degrees, which was 1.6 degrees above normal. Summer 2024 tied with summer 2008 for the 7^th warmest summer on record.

For comparison, summer 2023’s average temperature was 89.4 degrees, which was 4.3 degrees above normal. Summer 2023 was the second hottest summer on record.

Between June 1 and August 31 of 2024, Camp Mabry recorded 30 days with temperatures at or above 100 degrees. For comparison, summer 2024 featured 69 days of triple digit temperatures.

Austin recorded 6.33 inches of rain over the summer, which was 2.05 inches below normal.

Bob

The National Hurricane Center’s Friday midday update is now highlighting an area of unsettled weather located off the upper Texas coast that has a low potential to develop into a tropical cyclone.

NHC forecasters note a surface trough of low pressure, a reflection of the broad area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, has taken shape over the past few hours. Both features are producing  a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms along and just offshore of the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts.

NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 08-30-24 1:10 pm CDT

According to the National Hurricane Center, this system is expected to meander near the upper Texas coast over the weekend and through much of next week. Some slow tropical development will be possible if the system can stay offshore.  Regardless of development, the system is expected to bring heavy rains to portions of coastal Louisiana and the upper Texas coast during the next few days.

The NHC is currently giving this system a low chance, a 10 percent chance, for tropical development over the next two days, and a 20 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

While I’m not expecting any significant development of this system this weekend, I urge everyone to keep up with additional updates from the National Hurricane Center.

Weather Discussion

A moist and somewhat unsettled weather pattern is in place as we head into the holiday weekend. While conditions appear favorable for periods of rain and scattered thunderstorms over the weekend, a total washout is certainly not anticipated. Not everyone will see rain on each day. For those planning outdoor activities, be prepared for some scattered shower and thunderstorm interruptions, followed by periods of dry weather. Rain totals through Monday are forecast to be highest across the coastal plains and Edwards Plateau regions, and lowest across Central Texas and the eastern Hill Country.

Friday’s weather maps showed an interesting weather set up for late August. A broad, non-tropical area of low pressure was located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico while another area of low pressure was located across southeastern New Mexico. Between the two systems, a moist and slightly unstable atmosphere is in place. Fortunately, the heat dome is nowhere to be found at the current time. Forecasts call for the low over the northwestern Gulf to remain nearly stationary through Labor Day. The circulation around the low will maintain a moist flow of tropical moisture from the coast, northwest to Central Texas and the Hill Country. The abundant tropical moisture and warming afternoon temperatures will be a source for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Meanwhile, the low over southeastern New Mexico is forecast to track to the east this weekend, helping to push a rare, weak cold front southeast through the Hill Country and eventually into Central Texas. The upper trough and cold front will both help spark the development of showers and thunderstorms across the region—mainly Sunday through Tuesday.

Breaking the outlook down day-by day:

Friday afternoon and Friday night

 Expect a partly cloudy sky across the region. There will be a 30 percent chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and a 40 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms across the coastal plains. Across the Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country, the probability for late afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be near 50 percent as the cold front slowly sinks to the southeast. Most of the rain activity should diminish by late evening.

For areas that do happen to see rain, totals should average less than a quarter inch, with isolated totals to around 1 inch possible.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the low to mid-90s.

Saturday through Saturday Night

Expect a partly cloudy sky across the region. The most favorable area for rain looks to be across the western half of the Hill Country and locations to the south of Interstate 10. Here, the probability for rain is forecast to be near 50-60 percent Saturday through Saturday evening. For the Austin and Central Texas regions, the probability for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening is forecast to be near 40 percent.

For areas that see rain, totals are forecast to average close to a quarter inch, with isolated totals to near 1.5 inches possible.

High temperatures Saturday are forecast to be near 90-92 degrees.

Sunday through Labor Day

The probability for rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast to increase to near 70 percent across the region as the cold front stalls over Central Texas and coastal low drifts a bit further to the west. The most favorable period for rain looks to be in the afternoon and evening hours. A higher coverage of rain is anticipated, compared to Friday and Saturday.

Rain amounts each day are forecast to average between a quarter and a half inch, with isolated totals of 1-2 inches possible.

Expect a partly to mostly cloudy sky both days, with high temperatures around 88-90 degrees.

Total Rainfall

Rain amounts between Friday afternoon and next Wednesday morning are forecast to average between 1 and 2 inches across the western Hill Country, and between 2 and 5 inches across Wharton and Matagorda Counties. For most of the Hill Country and Central Texas, totals are forecast to average close to 1 inch.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Friday through 7 pm Wednesday:

Outlook for Next Tuesday through Friday

Forecasts indicate the wet and unsettled pattern will continue as a broad trough of low pressure begins to setup across the central U.S. The most favorable days for rain are expected to be Tuesday and Wednesday, where the chance for rain will remain around 50-60 percent. The chance for rain will lower to 30-40 percent next Thursday and Friday. Rain amounts Tuesday through Friday are forecast to average around a half inch to 1 inch, with isolated heavier totals.

High temperatures next Tuesday through Friday are forecast to generally be in the low 90s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

The National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on two potential systems located in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, but neither system poses a threat to the Gulf of Mexico through the holiday weekend.

Across the central tropical Atlantic, forecasters are monitoring a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave. Gradual development of this system will be possible during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form sometime next week as the system moves to the west. It is predicted to reach the Lesser Antilles Monday and continue moving west across the Caribbean Sea through the middle to latter part of the week.

NHC forecasters are giving this system a medium, or 40 percent chance, for tropical development over the next seven days.

Another tropical wave was located between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is currently producing minimal shower and thunderstorm activity.  However, some slow development of this system will be possible through late next week as the wave continues to move slowly to the west-northwest.

NHC forecasters are currently giving this system a low, 20 percent chance, for tropical development over the next seven days.

Wishing everyone a safe and enjoyable holiday weekend as we close out the summer season.

Bob

As we close out the month of August, the weather pattern looks to feature periods of rain with temperatures less hot from what we’ve seen lately.  This pattern change is occurring as the center of the heat dome has shifted northeast up to the Tennessee and Ohio Valley regions. With the heat well up to our north, it has allowed a non-tropical area of low pressure to back west into Central Texas out of the Gulf of Mexico. Tuesday’s analysis showed the low centered over the Texas Hill Country. A counterclockwise flow around the low is helping to pull considerable tropical moisture inland all the way west to the Edwards Plateau region. Forecasts call for the low pressure system to slowly shift further to the west Wednesday, then become diffuse Thursday into Friday.

Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, expect a 30-40 percent chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the region as moisture continues to spread northwest from the coast. The most favorable period for rain will be in the afternoon and early evening periods. The severe storm threat will be quite low, but some of the stronger storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, brief heavy rain, and dangerous lightning.

For areas that do see rain, amounts both days are forecast to average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches, with isolated totals of 1-2 inches possible. High temperatures both days are predicted to be near 90-92 degrees.

The outlook for Thursday and Friday calls for a 20-30 percent chance for mainly afternoon and evening scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions as tropical moisture remains in place across the area. Spotty rain amounts of a quarter inch and less are forecast. There will be a 60-70 percent chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the coastal region due to a zone of increased tropical moisture. Rain amounts are forecast to average between a quarter and a half inch, with isolated totals of 1-2 inches possible. High temperatures both days are predicted to be in the low and mid-90s.

For Saturday through Labor Day, expect an increased coverage of rain showers and thunderstorms across the entire region as a weak cold front sags southeast out of Northwest Texas. At the same time, a new low pressure system is predicted to push west out of the Gulf of Mexico, pulling tropical moisture north from the coast. The two features are expected to cause a 50-60 percent chance for mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and a 70-80 percent chance for rain and thunderstorms across the coastal region. Daily rain amounts are forecast to generally average between a quarter and a half inch, with isolated totals to near 2 inches possible. Do note some pockets of locally heavy rain may develop from some of the slower-moving storm cells.

Expect a partly cloudy to mostly cloudy sky each day, with high temperatures generally in the low 90s.

Looking out into next week, forecasts call for a daily chance for rain showers and thunderstorms to continue as the moist flow off the Gulf persists and the heat dome remains off to our west and east. There are some indications for heavier rains developing next Wednesday and Thursday.  High temperatures next week are predicted to generally be around 88-90 degrees.

Total rain amounts through early next week are forecast to highest across the coastal area and the Edwards Plateau/western Hill Country regions, and lowest across the Interstate 35 corridor. According to the Weather Prediction Center, totals of 2-5 inches will be possible across Wharton and Matagorda Counties.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Tuesday through7 pm Next Tuesday:

Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center forecasters are indicating an area of low pressure could form in the central portion of the tropical Atlantic over the few days. If a low does develop, environmental conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of this system this weekend into early next week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

Elsewhere, conditions are quiet and tropical cyclone development is not expected over the next 5-7 days.

Bob

The first week of August saw the return of triple digit temperatures to much of the region as the summer heat dome reappeared, bringing with it some of the hottest temperatures so far this summer. Some people refer this current stretch of hot weather as the “dog days of summer”. Whatever you call it, the very hot temperatures unfortunately won’t be going away anytime soon as the heat dome continues to dominate the weather pattern.

Despite the heat dome hanging tough, some slight changes in the weather will be possible across the region Friday afternoon and again Saturday afternoon as a very weak cold front sags to the south out of North Texas. This front, combined with an area of moisture spreading in from the northeast, will cause a slight chance for the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region Friday afternoon through Friday evening. The probability for rain at any given location will be 20 percent. Should thunderstorms develop, the main weather threat will be the possibility for strong downburst winds, with gusts to around 50 mph. Some of the storms may also produce a few pockets of moderate to heavy rain. For locations that do happen to see rain, totals are predicted to average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches. The chance for rain is forecast to diminish shortly after sunset.

Aside from this slight chance for rain, Friday’s weather is looking to be mostly sunny and hot, with high temperatures around 98-101 degrees.

Little change in pattern is forecast for Saturday as the cold front stalls along a line roughly stretching from San Angelo, to Austin, to Houston. There will be a 20 percent chance for scattered afternoon and evening rain showers and thunderstorms across the region. And once again, strong downburst winds, with gusts to around 50 mph with be possible from some of the thunderstorms. Rain amounts, if any, should total around a quarter inch, or less. High temperatures are forecast to be near 98-100 degrees. The chance for rain will diminish Saturday evening as temperatures cool.

It’ll be back to sunny, very hot, and dry weather Sunday as the weak cold front dissipates and the heat dome grows a bit stronger. In fact, computer forecast solutions call for the heat dome to remain over the south central U.S. all of next week and next weekend. With the heat dome firmly in place, sunny and dry weather looks to continue all of next week. Along with the sunshine, dangerous heat will also persist, with more triple digit temperatures.

• Sunday through Friday, daily high temperatures are forecast to be near 98-102 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the upper 90s across the coastal plains.

Factoring in the relative humidity, daily peak heat index readings are predicted to be in the range of 105 and 110 degrees. These readings will likely reach or exceed the criteria for heat advisories.

Looking out into next weekend and the week of August 19^th, the computer forecast solution show few changes in the current hot and dry pattern as the heat dome continues across the area. No significant rain is forecast and high temperatures look to stay close to 100 degrees.

Tropical Weather Outlook

The strong tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea which had been was forecast to spread into the southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend dissipated a couple of days ago and no further development is expected.

National Hurricane Center forecasters are closely monitoring a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the central tropical Atlantic, well to the west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  This activity is associated with a strong tropical wave. According to the Hurricane Center, any development of the wave should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. However, conditions are expected to become more conducive for development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the system approaches and then moves near or over the Lesser Antilles. The system is forecast to continue moving generally west-northwestward and could approach portions of the Greater Antilles by the middle part of next week. NHC forecasters are giving this system a 60 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

Most of the ensemble forecast solutions call for the system to bend to the north early next week, keeping the system  away from the Gulf of Mexico. However, it is way too early to have strong confidence in this prediction.

Elsewhere, the tropical Atlantic is mostly quiet.

The Perseid Meteor Shower will Peak this Weekend

One of the best meteor showers of the year, the Perseid meteor shower, should reach its peak during the overnight hours of late Sunday night into early Monday morning (Aug. 11-12). So the mornings of August 11 and 12 are probably your best bet to see the show. August 13 might be good as well, but be aware that the Perseids tend to fall off rapidly after their peak. This year, there will be almost no moon, making the late-night sky nice and dark for shooting star spectators and counters. Some Perseids do appear during the evening, but the shower is always better from about midnight until the dawn’s early light.

The shower rises to a peak gradually, then falls off rapidly. And Perseid meteors tend to strengthen in number as late night deepens into the wee hours before dawn. The shower is often best just before dawn.

During those after-midnight hours the shower’s radiant point (the point from which it appears to originate), located between the Perseus constellation and the ‘W’ of Cassiopeia, will be getting progressively higher in the northeast — so meteors should flash across all parts of the sky at a rate of about one every minute or two (as seen by a single observer).

Have a great weekend and stay cool!

Bob

The focus of the weather this week will be on the heat. We are firmly in what is typically the hottest point of summer in Central and South Texas, and this week’s weather will definitely live up to that billing. Our nemesis, the dreaded heat dome, is forecast to gain greater influence on our weather throughout the week, likely leading to several consecutive days with triple digit temperatures.

After contracting westward over the weekend, the heat dome is now spreading back across Texas. Forecasts call for the center of the heat dome to set up across the southern Plains and northern Texas mid-week and remain over the area through at least Saturday. Sinking air under the heat dome is expected to cause a very stable atmosphere, abundant sunshine, and rain-free conditions throughout the week.

It’s going to be hot all week, but the hottest temperatures are predicted to occur Wednesday through Saturday as center of the heat dome gets closer to our area.

• High temperatures Monday and Tuesday are forecast to generally be near 98 to 100 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the mid-90s across the coastal plains
• High temperatures Wednesday through Saturday are forecast to generally be near 100-103 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the upper 90s across the coastal plains

Factoring in the humidity, peak heat index values Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be up to 106 degrees across Central Texas and the coastal regions. For Wednesday through Saturday, peak heat index readings are forecast to be up to 108 degrees across Central Texas, and up to 110 degrees across the coastal plains. Because of the forecast high heat index readings, the National Weather Service states they will likely be issuing Heat Advisories for parts of the area throughout the week.

Abundant sunshine and light winds will also result in high Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) values. WBGT is a measure of the heat stress in direct sunlight and takes into account the temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun angle, and incoming radiation (i.e. cloud cover). Conditions this week are favorable for high to extreme WBGT risk, or values that are high enough to stress even the most active populations (i.e. those used to working or exercising outdoors) due to the high temperatures, abundant sunshine, and light winds. It will be particularly important for those who work outdoors to practice heat safety this week. Avoid any unnecessary outdoor activities during the peak heating of the day and remain hydrated.

Looking out further, Monday’s forecast solutions are showing modest support for a possible backdoor cold front to sink south into portions of North and East-Central Texas Sunday, as the center of the heat dome shifts further to the northwest. The front could possibly help generate a few rain showers across the northern half of the region next Sunday and Monday. As of now, no widespread or heavy rain is anticipated.

Next week, forecasts call for the heat dome to weaken slightly while it continues to hang out over the central and southern Plains. For our region, the sunny, dry, and hot weather looks to continue. Daily high temperatures are predicted to stay close to 100 degrees throughout the week.

Note that weather from the tropics could possibly influence on our region at some point next week. See the tropical weather section below.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Storm Debby:

Hurricane Debby made landfall along the Florida Big Bend coast, near Steinhatchee, around 7 am CDT this morning. Maximum sustained winds at the time were near 80 mph.

As of 1 pm, Debbie has weakened to a tropical storms and was inland and centered about 10 miles northwest of Live Oak, Florida. Peak winds were down to 65 mph. Debby is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches, with maximum amounts of 18 inches, across portions of central and northern Florida as well as central and northeast North Carolina through Wednesday morning. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with significant river flooding expected.

Disturbed Weather Near the Windward Islands

National Hurricane Center forecasters are closely monitoring an area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located near the Windward Island. Any development of this system should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while the system moves westward over the eastern Caribbean Sea. However, environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development later this week as the system moves across the western Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico.

NHC is currently giving this system a 30 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

Ensemble forecasts from the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models all show some degree of development with this feature either in the western Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. The NHC’s 7-day tropical weather outlook calls for the system reach the Bay of Campeche by about next Sunday. Right now, it’s too early to tell where this potential tropical system will make landfall. I urge everyone to keep monitor the progress of this disturbance over the next few days.

Bob

The month of July spoiled us, with below normal temperatures and above normal rainfall.  For most of the region, the temperature averaged around 1 degree below normal and rainfall totaled at least 2-3 inches above normal. Rainfall at many locations was 5-8 inches above normal. Not bad for what is typically the driest and second hottest month of summer.

August is here and unfortunately, there are no traces left of that tolerable July pattern. The heat dome, which had vacated to the west and east of Texas for most of July has made an unwelcome return. Friday’s analysis showed the heat dome stretching from the Pacific Northwest, to the southern Gulf of Mexico. The dome was centered over western Colorado. Forecasts call for the heat dome to retreat a little further to the west this weekend, then expand east to cover all Texas beginning early next week. With the heat dome now the dominant weather feature going forward, we’re looking an extended stretch of hot and most dry weather. (which is very typical of the month of August)

Friday’s weather is expected to be sunny and hot. High temperatures are forecast to range from 100-102 degrees across the Hill Country, to 98-100 degrees across Central Texas, to the mid-90s across the coastal plains.

This weekend’s weather will include a slight chance for a few scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms as weak cold front pushes south and stalls across North Central Texas. This boundary is expected to be the focus for the development of scattered rain showers across North Texas Saturday afternoon. Some of these showers are expected to drift south into the northern counties of the Hill Country and Central Texas late Saturday afternoon and evening. The probability for rain will only be 20 percent. There will be a slight chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the entire region Sunday afternoon as the boundary sags a little further to the south. Again, the chance for rain will only be 20 percent. Some of the stronger storms could produce wind gusts of 40 mph. For areas that do happen to see any rain, amounts are predicted to stay below a quarter inch, with isolated totals to near 1 inch.

Weekend temperatures will feature dangerous heat, with Saturday expected to be the hottest of the two days. Peak heat indices are forecast to be near 108-111 degrees Saturday, and near 103-106 degrees Sunday.

• Highs Saturday are forecast to be near 100-102 degrees across the Hill Country  and Central Texas, with upper 90s across the coastal plains
• Highs Sunday are forecast to be near 98-100 degrees across the Hill country and Central Texas regions, and in the mid-90s across the coastal plains

The outlook for next week calls for sunny, dry, and continued hot weather as the heat dome spreads back across Texas. Daily high temperatures are predicted to be near 98-101 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the mid to upper 90s across the coastal plains. Forecasts show similar hot and dry conditions continuing through the middle of the month.

From a climate perspective, the next two weeks are typically the peak of summer temperatures, with readings showing a slow decline during the second half of August. Let’s hope this pattern comes true this year.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Potential Cyclone Four

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate the tropical wave the National Hurricane Center has been monitoring for the last several days is now over southeastern Cuba, with disorganized convective bands to the north and south of a broad low pressure area. Given the potential for development once the system moves over water on Saturday, advisories have been initiated for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four.

As of 1 pm CDT, the strong tropical wave was centered about 360 miles southeast of Key West, Florida. The system was moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph . A turn toward the northwest at a slower forward speed is expected Friday night and Saturday, followed by a turn toward the north on Sunday.  On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move over Cuba Friday afternoon, cross the Straits of Florida on Saturday, and then move near or over the west coast of Florida as a  tropical storm Saturday night through Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds were near 30 mph with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical depression on Saturday as it moves across the Straits of Florida, followed by intensification into a tropical storm by Saturday night.

Based on the latest forecasts, this system poses no threat to the western Gulf or the coast of Texas.

NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 08/02/2024 1:20 pm CDT

Elsewhere across the tropical Atlantic, conditions are quiet. There are no systems in place which pose a threat for tropical development through late next week.

Have a great weekend!

Bob

What a week it’s been with the weather! The rainy pattern which started last Monday, hung around all the way through Sunday. Looking back at rain totals over the past week from LCRA’s Hydromet, the highest totals occurred across Wharton, Matagorda, Kimble, and Edwards Counties, were 7 to nearly 10 inches of rain were recorded. Much of Central Texas received between 2 and 5 inches, while totals across the northern Hill Country varied between a tenth of an inch, and nearly 5 inches!

Unfortunately, the pattern which caused the rain and more tolerable temperatures has come to an end. Monday’s weather maps showed the trough of low pressure which had been in place across Texas all of last week has been replaced by a strengthening ridge of high pressure, or heat dome. The heat dome is currently centered over the central Gulf of Mexico. Forecasts call for the center of the heat dome to spread to the northwest this week, moving across East Texas mid-week, arriving across the central and southern Rockies this weekend. A sunny to mostly sunny sky can be expected throughout the week.

As the heat dome spreads over Central and South Texas, the chances for additional rain will decrease dramatically. While a couple of spotty rain showers will be possible for coastal locations this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon, dry conditions are forecast region-wide through Saturday.

With few clouds and no rain, temperatures will trend warmer this week, continuing into the weekend.

• High temperatures Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be in the mid-90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the low 90s across the coastal plains
• High temperatures Wednesday through Saturday are forecast to be in the upper 90s to 100 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, while lower 90s should continue across the coastal plains

High relative humidity levels are expected throughout the week, causing peak heat index readings of 103-109 degrees each day.

Looking ahead to Sunday and next week, forecasts call for the center of the heat dome to shift a little further to the north, away from Texas. This more northern position away from Central Texas may open the door for a few spotty afternoon rain showers across the region next week next week. But note that widespread or heavy rain is not expected. High temperatures are forecast to generally be in the upper 90s, possibly trending down a couple degrees the second half of the week.

Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center forecasters are keeping a close watch on an area of disturbed weather located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. This system is expected interact with an approaching tropical wave during the next day or two. Environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system is in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas.

NHC forecasters are giving this system a medium chance (a 50 percent chance) for tropical development over the next seven days.

Elsewhere, weather conditions are quiet and tropical development is not expected over the next seven days.

Saharan Dust Arriving Monday Evening

A plume of Saharan dust is predicted to reach the region Monday evening and remain over the area through late week. The dust is expected to cause an increase in fine particulate levels and result in a hazy-looking sky throughout the week.

Have a good week!

Bob

This week has provided a nice break from the typical weather we normally see in late July. Last year at this time, Austin was in the middle of a 45-day streak of consecutive triple digit temperatures that didn’t break until August 22^nd. To make matters worse, only 0.01 inches of rain was recorded during this 45-day stretch. This July, rainfall is averaging above normal at all locations.

This week’s unusual pattern of less hot weather and scattered rains is expected to continue through Sunday. A trough of low pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere currently stretching from southwest Texas, to the Ohio Valley is forecast to remain stalled over the area through Sunday. Rising air on the eastern side of the trough is expected to cause the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms—mainly in the late morning trough evening periods. The most favorable area for widespread rain and thunderstorm development is predicted to be across the middle and upper Texas coast, extending inland to around Intestate 10. Isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are forecast across Central Texas and the eastern counties of the Hill Country.

The probability for rain Friday afternoon, Saturday, and Sunday will be near 30 percent across the eastern Hill Country. Across Central Texas, the probability for rain will be near 40-50 percent. For the middle Texas coast, the probability for rain will be at 70 percent.

Daily rain amounts should average well below a quarter inch across the eastern Hill Country, and close to a quarter inch across Central Texas. Across the middle Texas coast, daily rain amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are forecast, with isolated higher totals of 2-3 inches.

Cumulative rain amounts through Monday evening are forecast to average around a quarter inch or less across the eastern Hill Country, be between 0.25 and 1.5 inches across Central Texas, and total between 1.5 and 2 inches across the middle Texas coast. Isolated heavier totals to near 5 inches will be possible.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm Monday:

Plenty of clouds under the broad upper trough will help to keep afternoon temperatures below seasonal normals through the weekend. (Normal high temperatures for late July are in the upper 90s). Daily high temperatures are forecast to be near 88-90 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas. For the coastal plains, highs are forecast to be in the low and mid-80s. Unfortunately, it will still feel hot thanks to the high humidity levels and relatively light winds.

The outlook for next week calls for a return to more typical late July/early August weather conditions as the stalled upper trough over Texas finally lifts off to the northeast. In it’s place, the large heat dome over the western U.S. is predicted to spread back across Texas. Fortunately, the center of the heat dome is forecast to remain over the Four Corners region and not spread over Texas. Mostly sunny, dry and warmer weather is forecast throughout the week.

• High temperatures Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be in the low to mid-90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the low 90s towards the coast
• High temperatures Wednesday through next weekend are forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, but remain in the low 90s across the coastal plains

Long-range forecasts hint the next chance for rain will take shape the week of August 5^th, when the heat dome shifts away from Texas and back to the western U.S.

Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center forecasters are monitoring an area of disturbed weather located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. The clouds and showers are expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave during the next several days.  Some tropical development of this system will  be possible while it approaches the Lesser Antilles during the early to middle part of next week. The system is forecast to move generally west-northwestward near the Greater Antilles toward the latter part of next week.

As of now, NHC forecasters are giving this system just a low chance (20 percent chance) for tropical development over the next seven days.

Catch a View of the ISS this Weekend and Next Week

There will be several opportunities to see the International Space Station travel across our sky over the next few evenings. The best one looks to be Sunday evening, when the station will reach a point 68 degrees above the northern horizon. In the Austin area, that particular pass will occur at 10:13 pm.

You can find out more specifics about the upcoming passes from NASA’s website  Spot The Station | NASA Just input your city and click on the big blue marker to get all of the details.

Have a great weekend!

Bob