Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

Rain showers and scattered thunderstorms have continued across the region today, although areal coverage has been less than the past couple of days. As of 2 pm, LCRA’s Hydromet showed the showers have produced spotty totals of 1-2 inches across parts of Central Texas. Heavier and more concentrated rains have fallen across the middle Texas coast, producing totals of 1-3 inches across Wharton and Matagorda Counties.

Thursday’s analysis showed a trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere  stretching from the southern Great Lakes to Southwestern Texas, causing a moist and unstable atmosphere across the eastern half of Texas. It’s interesting to note a weak area of low pressure in the lower atmosphere developed across south central Texas Thursday morning. The circulation around this low helped pull tropical moisture inland to Central Texas and the eastern Hill Country. The counterclockwise circulation around this low is expected to cause a 40-50 percent chance for additional rain showers and thunderstorms for the eastern Hill Country, Central Texas, and the middle Texas coast   Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.

While a decrease in shower activity is forecast this evening, high resolution forecasts call for more showers and scattered thunderstorms to develop after midnight for areas along and east of Interstate 35. The rain is forecast to continue into Friday morning. While not a certainty, the model solutions have been fairly consistent in calling for this rain development.

Friday afternoon through Sunday, a chance for mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms looks to continue for the eastern Hill County, Central Texas, and coastal region as the trough of low pressure remains in place across the region. The chance for rain will range from 30 percent across the eastern Hill Country, to near 40-50 percent across Central Texas, to 70-80 percent across the coastal plains. The rain is expected to be heaviest across the coastal region, with lighter amounts expected further inland. Daily rain amounts are forecast to range from around 1 inch across the coastal plains, to around a quarter inch across the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor.

The Weather Prediction’s Rainfall forecast, for the period Friday through Sunday, calls for cumulative totals of 2-3 inches across the middle Texas coast, 0.5 to 1.25 inches across Central Texas, and around a quarter inch or less across the Hill Country.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 am Monday:

Generally dry and warmer weather is forecast beginning Monday as the western heat dome spreads east to cover most of Texas. High temperatures are forecast to return to the mid and upper 90s. Interestingly, today’s forecasts indicate the heat dome may begin to shift back to the west and northwest next weekend, which could open the door for some additional unsettled weather.  Stay tuned.

Bob

The wet and unsettled weather pattern continues. Monday night into Tuesday morning, moderate to heavy rain developed and persisted across the Edwards Plateau and parts of the Hill Country. Widespread totals of 4-8 inches fell over the area from west of Rocksprings, to Kerrville, to Junction, to west of Rocksprings. Within this area, a couple of isolated totals of 9-10 inches were observed. Totals of 2-4 inches fell across parts of Mason and Gillespie Counties. Across much of the eastern Hill Country and the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor, totals ranged between 1 and 2.5 inches Very low totals have been recorded so far across the middle Texas coast.

Tuesday’s analysis continued to show an unusual trough of low pressure stretching from the Great Lakes to Far West Texas. Small, slow-moving waves of low pressure moving through the large trough, taking advantage of the very moist airmass, have helped to produce the recent period of moderate to heavy rain. Tuesday’s data indicates the broad trough is sagging slowly to the southeast, and this is expected to shift the focus for heavy rain over the next few days mainly to areas along and east of Interstate 35, rather than the Hill Country.

For Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night, periods of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms look to continue across the eastern half of the Hill Country, Central Texas, and the middle Texas coast. Some of the rain showers will be slow movers, capable of producing large amounts of rain in short periods of time. Rain amounts between Tuesday afternoon and sunrise Wednesday are forecast to generally average between 0.5 and 1 inch, with isolated totals of 3-4 inches possible.

Wednesday through Sunday, the trough is predicted to remain nearly stationary across Central Texas. As a result, a good chance for scattered rains is expected to continue to across the entire region, with the most favorable area for rain occurring for areas along and east of Interstate 35. The probability for rain will range from 30-40 percent across the Hill Country, to near 40-50 percent across Central Texas, to near 80 percent across the coastal plains.

Daily rain amounts across the Hill Country are forecast to average near or less than a quarter inch. For Central Texas, daily rain amounts are forecast to average between a quarter and a half inch, with isolated totals of 1-2 inches possible. For the middle Texas coast, daily rain amounts are forecast to average between 0.5 and 1 inch, with isolated totals of 2-4 inches possible.

The Weather Prediction Center’s rainfall forecast for the next seven days calls for totals of 0.25 to 1 inch across the Hill Country, 1-2 inches across Central Texas, and 3-5 inches across the coastal plains.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Tuesday through 7 pm Next Tuesday:

With soils becoming more saturated from previous days rains, flash flooding may become more of a threat over the next few days. This will be in addition to the urban and small stream type flooding.

The outlook for next week calls for a slight chance for rain Monday, with mostly sunny and dry weather for the balance of the week. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low and mid-90s.

Bob

Our weather looks to be rather unsettled this week thanks to a broad trough of low pressure which has developed and currently stretches from West Texas, to the Middle Mississippi Valley region. Typically in late July, the heat dome covers most of Texas. But recently, the heat dome split, with one dome now covering the western U.S., and the other dome covering the southeastern U.S. This unusual pattern is forecast to persist all week and through the upcoming weekend. Next week, the heat dome is forecast to spread back close to Texas.

Over the next several days, waves of low pressure are forecast to move trough the broad trough and track east across Central and South Texas, causing periods of rain showers and thunderstorms across the region. Monday’s data suggests the most favorable area for rain will slowly begin to shift away from the Hill Country mid-week as the broad trough shifts east out of West Texas. Meanwhile, a good chance for rain showers and thunderstorms is expected to continue across Central and Southeast Texas throughout the week and into the weekend. Towards the coast, a very tropical air has developed and has been instrumental in the development of moderate to heavy rain across parts of the coastal region over the past couple of days. A similar pattern is expected to continue for the next few days.

It should be noted a very moist air mass has spread inland from the Gulf of Mexico to cover most of the region. This very moist air mass, combined with the slow and erratic movement of the storms, means there will be a potential for any of the storms to produce high totals of rain in a relatively short period of time. Most of this week’s rain and storms is expected to occur during the day and into the evening hours as temperatures warm modestly.

Forecasts show a 70-80 percent chance for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms across the entire region Monday afternoon and again on Tuesday. Beginning Wednesday, the probability for rain and storms across the Hill Country and northern counties of Central Texas looks to decrease slightly to 40-50 percent and continue there through the weekend. For the eastern half of Central Texas and the middle Texas coast, the probability for rain will remain near 70-80 percent through the upcoming weekend.

The Weather Prediction Center’s rainfall forecast for the next seven days calls for the highest cumulative totals of rain to occur along and south of a line stretching from Hondo, to Austin, to College Station. For these locations, totals of 2-4 inches, with isolated higher totals are predicted. Areas south of Interstate 10 could see totals of 3-5 inches. For the Hill Country, totals will range from 0.5 to 1 inch across the north, to the 1-2 inches across the southern and eastern areas.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Monday through 7 pm Next Monday:

Drier, but not completely dry, and warmer conditions are forecast next week.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Quite weather conditions continue across the tropical Atlantic and tropical cyclone development is not expected for at least the next seven days.

Bob

An unusual July weather pattern is taking shape, with heat domes now situated across the western and southeastern U.S. and a rare cold front draped across Central and South Texas. This unusual pattern is forecast to strengthen next week, and is expected to bring a week-long wet weather pattern to much of Texas.

As of late Friday morning, the cold front stretched from Houston, to San Antonio, to near Ozona. Slightly drier and slightly cooler air was noted behind the cold front. The front is forecast to sag south to the middle Texas coast Friday evening and stall over that general area through Saturday . The front is then predicted to return back to the north on Sunday. With drier and somewhat more stable atmospheric conditions expected behind the cold front, no rain is forecast across the Hill Country or Central Texas regions through Sunday morning. For areas near and to the south of Interstate 10, there will a 40 percent chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the area this afternoon and again Saturday afternoon. Rain amounts through Saturday evening are forecast to average around a half inch, with isolated totals of 1-2 inches possible.

• Despite the “cold” front, high temperatures Friday and Saturday are predicted to generally be in the mid to upper 90s. Low 90s are forecast for the coastal region.

Significant moisture looks to return off the Gulf of Mexico to the eastern half of Texas beginning Sunday afternoon. As a result, there will be a 30-40 percent chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the region Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Rain amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches can be expected. Sunday’s weather will; include a partly to mostly cloudy sky.

A change to a wet and unsettled weather pattern is forecast to begin Sunday afternoon into Sunday night when a trough of low pressure situated between the two heat domes builds south into West Texas out of the southern Plains states. Waves of low pressure are predicted to move through the broad trough and track east across Texas next week, with each trough expected to kick off showers and thunderstorms. The unusual trough is forecast to remain in place across West Texas through late next week, and is expected to keep the wet pattern going through next Friday.

Forecast solutions are showing the first wave of low pressure to spread east out of West Texas late Sunday into Monday. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to increase across the region Monday morning, followed by a fairly widespread coverage of rain Monday afternoon into Monday evening. The probability for rain will be near 70-80 percent. Rainfall forecast for Monday call indicate widespread totals of 1-1.5 inches will be possible.

A second wave of low pressure is forecast to spread across the region Tuesday, bringing more widespread moderate to heavy rain to the region. The probability for rain will again be near 70-80 percent. Rain amounts Tuesday are predicted to average around 1 inch.

Forecasts call for additional waves of low pressure to move across the area next Wednesday into Friday. With a very moist air mass in place, additional periods of moderate to occasionally heavy rain is forecast. There are some signs the rain may trend down a bit in intensity and coverage next Thursday and Friday. The chance for rain is forecast to decrease by next weekend as the stalled trough of low pressure finally exits to the northeast.

Note that next week’s rains are expected to be slow-moving efficient rain producers and will be capable of producing large amounts of rain in a short period of time. The Weather Prediction Center’s 7-day rainfall forecast, valid through 7 pm next Friday, calls for widespread totals of 2-4 inches, with isolated totals of 4-6 inches possible.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through Next Friday at 7 pm:

Next week’s pattern will feature considerable clouds, periods of rain, and lower temperatures. High temperatures Monday through Friday are forecast to generally be around 88-90 degrees.

Looking out to next weekend and the week of July 29^th, a drier and warmer pattern is forecast as the western heat dome shifts closer to Texas. High temperatures are forecast to generally be in the mid to upper 90s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions are very quiet across the tropical Atlantic and they are expected to remain that way for at least the next seven days.

NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 07-19-24 1:10 pm

The July Full Moon

Don’t miss the Full Buck Moon this weekend. Technically, the moon will be full Sunday morning at 5:17 am CDT. This means we will be treated to a full-looking moon Friday, Saturday, and Sunday nights. By the way, July’s full Moon is traditionally called the “Buck Moon” due to the fact that deer antlers are seen around this time of year in North America.

Have a good weekend!

Bob

An unsettled weather pattern is forecast to take shape beginning Wednesday evening and Wednesday night when a rare July cold front pushes south out of North Texas. The cold front, currently located across North Texas, is forecast to move through the northern half of the Hill Country Wednesday evening, then continue south across Central Texas Wednesday night, reaching the middle Texas coast by midday Thursday. The front is forecast to pull up stationary just off the middle Texas coast Thursday afternoon through Friday.

With the heat dome shifting to the Desert Southwest, atmospheric conditions across Texas are looking somewhat favorable for the development of showers and scattered thunderstorms along, and just behind the cold front as it moves to the south.

• For the Hill Country region, high resolution forecasts  call for showers to spread into the Hill Country Wednesday evening, with the best chance for rain and scattered thunderstorms occurring late Wednesday evening through about 3 am Thursday. The chance for rain looks to diminish Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.
• For the Austin/Central Texas region, showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to spread into the area late Wednesday evening, with the best chances for rain occurring between midnight and 9 am Thursday. There will be a 20 percent chance for scattered showers Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.
• For the middle Texas coast, the best chance for rain is forecast to occur Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon, with a slight chance for rain continuing Thursday night. The probability for rain will be near 50 percent.

Friday through Saturday, there looks to be a 20-30 percent chance for additional scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the area as a couple of weak disturbances move in from the west. Low rain amounts are forecast. Severe storms are not anticipated. Rain amounts through Saturday evening are forecast to total below a half inch, with a couple of isolated totals to around 1 inch possible.

High temperatures Thursday through Saturday are forecast to be mostly in the mid-90s.

Forecasts call for an increasing chance for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms across the entire region beginning Sunday afternoon when another cold front sinks south out of North Texas. Behind the front, a series of low pressure troughs are forecast to track from west to east across the region next Monday through Thursday. With abundant moisture in place, periods of widespread moderate to occasionally heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms are forecast.

Wednesday’s forecast solutions call for daily totals of 0.5 to 1 inch, with isolated totals of 1-2 inches possible. Locally heavy downpours will be possible. The probability for rain is forecast to be near 50-60 percent.

The Weather Prediction Center’s 7-day rainfall forecast, valid through next Wednesday evening, calls for widespread cumulative totals of between 2 and 3 inches, with isolated totals of 3-5 inches along and east of Interstate 35. Keep in mind, these totals don’t include the rain that is forecast for next Thursday.

The chance for does look to decrease next Friday, continuing into next weekend.

Stay tuned for additional updates on this upcoming wet pattern.

Bob

Dry and quiet weather conditions are in place as we kick off the new week. The area of low pressure over northern Mexico responsible for the clouds and scattered showers across the region over the weekend has shifted to the south, taking the clouds and most of the moisture with it. Meanwhile, the heat dome which has recently been parked over the western U.S. has nudged itself a little further to the east to now cover much of Texas. The heat dome is expected to cause a pattern of generally sunny, dry, and hot weather this afternoon through Wednesday.

The only exception to this will be for areas located to the south of Interstate 10, where lingering moisture and an active sea breeze front will cause a 20 percent chance for scattered afternoon rain showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon through Wednesday. Rain amounts should stay below a quarter inch.

• High temperatures Monday afternoon through Wednesday are forecast to be near 98-100 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the low to mid-90s across the coastal region.

A trend toward a less stable weather pattern is forecast for Thursday and Friday as the heat dome shifts more to the west and a large trough of low pressure develops from the Great Lakes, south to the southern Plains. This will allow a rare July cold front to push south into Texas late week, increasing the chance for rain. The front is forecast to reach the Central Texas region late Thursday, then stall somewhere close to Interstate 10 Friday into Saturday. Outflow boundaries from storms over North Texas will help to increase the chance for rain and scattered thunderstorms across the region beginning Thursday afternoon, with another chance for rain expected on Friday. The probability for rain both days is forecast to be near 40-50 percent. Rain amounts Thursday through Friday are predicted to average less than a quarter inch across the Hill Country, average less than a half inch across Central Texas and the coastal plains. High temperatures Thursday and Friday are forecast to be in the mid-90s.

The outlook for the weekend calls for just a slight chance for rain across the region on Saturday, followed by a better probability for rain on Sunday as the trough over the southern Plains sharpens, pulling more moisture north from the Gulf. Sunday’s totals are forecast to generally average between 0.5 and 1 inch. Weekend high temperatures are forecast to be in the low and mid-90s.

Looking ahead to next week, forecasts are pointing to an unsettled weather pattern across the region, with continued chances for rain through late week as the trough of low pressure remains stationary over the southern Plains and northern Texas. Elevated chances for widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast Monday through Friday. It’s interesting to note both the GFS and ECWMF ensemble solutions call for totals through Friday of 1-2 inches, and possibly higher. There are still many details to be worked out, but it is looking to be wet and unsettled next week.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 am Next Monday:

Temperatures next week are not predicted to be all that hot, with highs mostly in the low 90s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions remain quiet across the tropical Atlantic as a large area of Saharan dust spreads to the west. There are no systems in place which pose a threat for tropical development for the next seven days.

Have a good week!

Bob

The atmosphere is forecast to be somewhat unstable as we head into the weekend, thanks to an area of low pressure situated over northern Mexico. For the past couple of days, this same area of low pressure, in combination with a zone of tropical moisture, has led to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across South Texas—mainly along and to the south of Interstate 10. The showers produced spotty totals of 0.25 to 0.5 inches. Friday morning, a persistent area of rain over eastern Fayette and Austin Counties produced an area of 1-2 inch rain totals.

A similar pattern of scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms is forecast to continue Friday and Saturday. For these two days, the chance for rain is predicted to expand north to also include all of Central Texas and the eastern half of the Hill Country. The probability for rain will range from 50-60 percent across the coastal plains, to near 30 percent across Central Texas and the eastern Hill Country. For locations that happen to see rain, amounts on both days are forecast to generally average between a quarter and a half inch, with some very isolated totals of 1-2 inches possible.

• High temperatures Friday and Saturday will include the mid and upper 90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and the upper 80s to low 90s across the coastal plains.

For Sunday and the first half of next week, the chance for additional scattered rains across Central Texas and the Hill Country will decrease as the zone of tropical moisture shifts south to the coastal plains. Weather conditions look to be mostly sunny, dry, and hot, with just a few isolated showers possible across the coastal region.

• High temperatures Sunday through Wednesday are forecast to be near 98-100 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the mid-90s across the coastal plains.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Friday through 7 pm Wednesday:

Looking out into late next week and next weekend, forecasts show a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms returning to the forecast as weak cold front sags south into Texas. Forecasts call for the front to make it into North Texas, and possibly as far south as Central Texas. The cold front and associated outflow boundaries will have the potential to cause showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region beginning next Thursday, continuing into next weekend. Unfortunately, there’s currently too much uncertainty in the strengthen and position of the front to get a handle on how much rain the front may bring to our area. Cold fronts in July, even weak ones, are not all that common and come with lots of uncertainties.

High temperatures late week and next weekend are forecast to generally stay near 98-100 degrees.

Tropical Weather Outlook

In the wake of Hurricane Beryl, conditions have turned very quiet across the tropical Atlantic.

National Hurricane Center forecasters are monitoring an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located near the North and South Carolina coastlines. Strong upper-level winds over the area will limit any development of this system before it moves inland over South Carolina and North Carolina Friday evening. However, the disturbance could contribute to areas of heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across coastal portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic through Friday night. NHC forecasters are giving this system a zero percent chance for development over the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, there are no systems in place which pose a threat for tropical development for the next seven days.

Have a great weekend and stay cool!

Bob

Hurricane Beryl moved inland around 4 am Monday morning near Matagorda with peak winds of 80 mph. The hurricane produced very strong winds and heavy rain across Colorado, Wharton, and Matagorda Counties overnight and into the morning hours. Wind gusts of 60-75 mph were reported across all three counties. A naval observing station at Matagorda City reported a sustained wind of 68 mph, with a gust to 86 mph just before landfall. LCRA’s Hydromet showed widespread totals of 5-6 inches occurring across Wharton and Matagorda Counties.

Once inland, the center of Beryl tracked to the north-northeast through the morning hours, passing just west of Houston. As of 1 pm, Beryl had been downgraded to a tropical storm and was centered about 55 miles north of Houston. A turn to the northeast, with an increase in forward speed is expected Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move over eastern Texas today, then move through the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 60 mph, with some higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast, and Beryl is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday.

NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 07/08/24 3:00 pm CDT

As Beryl moves away from our region this afternoon, impacts from the storm will diminish. While some additional showers will be possible for the area east of Interstate 35, no heavy rain is expected. Wind speeds should slowly decrease.

Weather Outlook

Although Beryl been the weather headline for the past few days, another big weather headline has been the heat dome moving away from Texas. Late last week, the heat dome shifted from Texas to the West Coast, with another heat dome developing over the Southeastern U.S. Between the two heat domes, a broad trough of low pressure has developed from south central Canada to southern Texas. It’s this trough that allowed a weak cold front to sink south into Texas last Friday. Another cold front is currently situated over Northwest Texas. Forecasts call for the heat dome to remain out west through late week, and this will help to keep our high temperatures below 100 degrees. This weekend, the heat dome is predicted to shift back to the central and southern Rockies.

For Monday afternoon, there will be a 20 percent chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the region as the circulation around the backside of Beryl brings tropical moisture westward. Rain amounts, if any, should average well below a quarter inch.

For Tuesday through Thursday, a mostly sunny and dry weather pattern is forecast across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions. Daily high temperatures look to be in the mid-90s. For the coastal region, there will be 30-40 percent chance for scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms due to lingering tropical moisture and an active sea breeze. Rain amounts through Thursday are forecast to generally average around a half inch. Daily High temperatures are predicted to be around 90-92 degrees.

Friday through Sunday, there will be a 20-30 percent chance for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Central Texas and coastal regions due to an increase in tropical moisture spreading inland from the Gulf. Rain amounts are forecast to average less than a quarter inch. High temperatures should be in the mid and upper 90s across Central Texas, and the low 90s across the coastal areas. For the Hill Country, expect mostly sunny and dry weather with high temperatures in upper 90s.

The outlook for next week calls for more typical July-like weather, as the heat dome begins to spread east to cover Texas. Sunny and hot conditions are forecast, with daily high temperatures near 100 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and the mid upper 90s across the coastal plains

Following Beryl, weather conditions across the tropical Atlantic are quiet and additional tropical cyclone development is not expected for at least the next seven days.

Bob

Here’s my Sunday update on Tropical Storm Beryl.

• A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Texas coast, from Baffin Bay northward to San Luis Pass, Texas. This includes Matagorda County
• A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Fayette, Colorado, and Wharton Counties
• Beryl’s forecast track has shifted a slight amount to the east and is predicted to track inland a bit faster than previous forecasts
• Landfall is expected just before sunrise Monday
• The heaviest rains of 5-10 inches are now predicted to fall a little further to the east—mainly over the area between Matagorda Bay, College Station, and Tyler

Intensity/Track Discussion

Satellite images and data from a Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate Tropical Storm Beryl is becoming better organized. Brownsville Doppler radar has been showing an eyewall, although as of late morning, it was still open on the northwest side.

NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 07/07/24 11:50 am CDT

As of 10 am, maximum sustained winds were up to 65 mph. Further intensification is likely as Beryl moves over very warm waters within light shear conditions. Rapid intensification is a distinct possibility if the core can become isolated from the dry air that has been inhibiting intensification during the last day or so. Beryl is predicted to be intensifying right up until landfall early Monday. Forecasts call for maximum sustained winds of 85 mph at the time of landfall.

Beryl is moving northwestward at 10 mph. The storm is forecast to turn north-northwest this afternoon, making landfall along the middle Texas coast, near Matagorda Bay, before sunrise on Monday. NHC’s 10 am updated forecast track has shifted the point of landfall slightly to the east, with the most likely area now expected to be on the eastern side of Matagorda Bay. But do note the cone of uncertainty stretches from Port Aransas, to Freeport.

Following landfall, Beryl’s is forecast to turn northward, and eventually northeastward. An increase in forward speed is also forecast Monday into Tuesday. Beryl’s forecast track calls for the center to move over the Wharton/Columbus/Bellville area Monday morning, then move northeast to the Brenham/College station area Monday afternoon, and the Tyler/Northeast Texas area Monday night.

Based on the latest track, it appears the greatest wind and rain impacts from Beryl will occur on Monday over the area generally along and to the east of Highway 77, from Victoria, to La Grange, to Rockdale. Minimal impacts are expected across the Hill Country and the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor.

• A Hurricane warning has been posted for Matagorda County through Monday. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion
• A Tropical Storm Warning has been posted for Wharton, Colorado and Fayette Counties through Monday. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area

The first rain band associated with Beryl pushed inland along the coast earlier this morning. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to increase across the middle Texas coast beginning late this afternoon and continue overnight and through Monday. Strong winds will begin to spread inland Sunday night and continue through Monday morning.

• For Matagorda County, expect wind speeds to increase to 55-65 mph, with gusts to 100 mph after midnight Sunday night. On Monday, expect wind speeds of 60-70 mph, with gusts to 95 mph. Wind speeds should decrease in the afternoon.
• For Wharton County,  expect wind speeds of 30-40 mph, with gusts as high as 80 mph after midnight. On Monday, expect wind speeds of 45-55 mph, with gusts as high as 95 mph Monday morning. Wind speeds decrease in the afternoon
• For Colorado County, expect wind speeds of 20-30 mph, with gust to 55 mph after midnight. On Monday, expect wind speeds of 25-35 mph, with gusts to 70 mph
• For Fayette County, expect wind speeds of 15-25 mph, with gusts to 45 mph after midnight. On Monday, expect wind speeds of 20-30 mph, with gust to 55 mph.
• For the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor, expect wind speeds of 15-25 mph, with gusts to 30 mph on Monday

The heaviest rains are predicted to occur along and to the east of the path of Beryl. Updated rainfall forecasts through Tuesday call for totals of 5-10 inches over the area between Matagorda Bay, Bellville, and College Station, with lower totals to the west. Totals will range from 4-5 inches across Fayette County, to between 0.5 and 1 inch across the Austin/Travis County area. Across the Hill Country, most totals are forecast to average less than a half inch.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 am Sunday through7 am Wednesday:

Finally, do keep in mind isolated tornadoes will be possible tonight and Monday for areas along and to the east of the path of Beryl. The Storm Prediction Center has placed Matagorda and Wharton Counties under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms through early Monday morning, and a Moderate risk for severe thunderstorms during the day on Monday.

Bob