Forecast for Central Texas
Reports from LCRA’s HydrometRainfall summary
Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather
Mostly Sunny, Dry, and Hot Weather Expected as the Month of July Begins
Welcome to the month of July! This month is typically the second hottest month of the year behind August.
Forecasters continue to monitor the progress a disorganized area of low pressure that persisted across the western Gulf for the past couple of day. The low pushed inland along the middle Texas coast early this morning and as of midday, it was centered along the upper Texas coast between Bay City and Angleton. So far, the heaviest rains associated with the low have been over the Gulf waters and the upper Texas coast, to the south of Houston. Totals inland have been low. According to LCRA’s Hydromet, totals over the past 48 hours have generally averaged less than a quarter inch across Wharton and Matagorda Counties. The highest gauged total so far has been near Sargent, in southeastern Matagorda County, where 1.79 inches has been recorded.
High-resolution forecasts call for the weak low pressure system to move slowly northeast Friday afternoon and Friday night, with the heaviest rains staying on the eastern side of the low. Based on this, the threat for heavy rain along the middle Texas coast has decreased. The Flash Flood Watch issued previously for Wharton and inland Matagorda counties has been canceled. For these two counties, there will be a 50 percent chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as tropical moisture wraps around the low center. However, additional rain amounts are forecast to only average around a quarter inch.
A few isolated rain showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the Hill Country region this afternoon and early evening due to the circulation around a weak area of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico. The probability for rain will only be 20 percent, with rain amounts averaging well below a quarter inch. Between the low near the coast and the upper low over Mexico, the Central Texas region is forecast to remain mostly sunny and dry this afternoon and evening.
- High temperatures Friday afternoon are forecast to be in the mid and upper 90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions. Towards the coast, high temperatures are predicted to be in the upper 80s to low 90s.
For Saturday, there will be a slight chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the entire region due to persistent low pressure area over northeastern Mexico and lingering tropical moisture over the eastern half of the area. The probability for rain will only be 20 percent, with rain amounts averaging less than a tenth of an inch. Otherwise, expect a mostly sunny sky with high temperatures in the mid and upper 90s. There will be a southerly breeze in the range of 10-15 mph.
A sunny, dry, and hot weather pattern will begin to take hold Sunday as both low pressure systems exit the region and a large ridge of high pressure, or heat dome, begins to expand across the south central and southeastern U.S. Forecasts call for the ridge to remain in place all of next week, while the center of the ridge shifts from lower Mississippi Valley on Monday, to the southern Rockies late week. The strengthening ridge is expected to bring the return of triple-digit temperatures to much of the region beginning Monday and persisting throughout the week.
- High temperatures next week are forecast to be near 101-104 degrees across the Hill Country, be around 100-102 degrees across Central Texas, and in the upper 90s across the coastal plains.
Longer-range forecasts looking out into the week of July 11th call for few, if any changes through the first half of the week. We may see more of a Gulf influence the second half of the week as the ridge is predicted to shift to the southeastern U.S. Little change in the temperature is forecast.
Tropical Weather Outlook
Tropical Storm Bonnie was declared Friday morning for the system over the western Caribbean Sea. Well-organized deep convection persisted into the morning, and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission found a well-defined circulation center located about 100 nautical miles east of the Nicaragua coast.
As of 1 CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located about 150 miles east-southeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua. Bonnie was moving toward the west near 20 mph and a continued westward motion, with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday night. A west-northwestward motion is expected to begin on Sunday and continue into Monday. On the forecast track, the system will move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today, cross southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica tonight, and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday. The system will then move offshore of but parallel to the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico Saturday through Monday.
Maximum sustained winds were near 40 mph with higher gusts. Bonnie is expected to strengthen before it makes landfall Friday night. After landfall, short term weakening is forecast on Saturday, but Bonnie is expected to re-strengthen later this weekend and early next week over the eastern Pacific.
National Hurricane Center forecasters continue to monitor a strong tropical wave located about 100 miles east of the Windward Islands. This system is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The associated shower activity and gusty winds are expected to spread across the Windward Islands later today. Significant development of this system is not expected to occur while it moves westward into unfavorable conditions over the eastern Caribbean Sea. NHC forecasters are giving this system a low probability, or 10 percent chance, for tropical development over the next 5 days.
Satellite and radar images along with surface observations indicate that a low pressure system has formed just off the coast of Savannah, Georgia. Surface pressures are high in this region, and development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while it drifts northeastward along the southeast U.S. coastline during the next day or so. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains, which could cause flash flooding across portions of southeastern Georgia and the Carolinas through Friday night and into Saturday.
Elsewhere, weather conditions are quiet and tropical cyclone development is not expected over the next 5 days.
A Record Hot Month of June
The numbers are in and June 2022 was the hottest June on record for Austin-Camp Mabry, San Antonio, Houston and Del Rio.
In Austin, the average temperature for the month was 87.7 degrees, which was 4.7 degrees above normal, and 0.6 degrees ahead of June 2011. To put into perspective just how record hot this is, the average Austin temperature for July is 85.8 degrees and the average Austin temperature for August is 86.5 degrees. The hottest June follows a record hottest May and the 6th hottest April on record.
- The average maximum temperature for the month was 100.4 degrees—the highest average maximum June temperature ever observed.
- Austin recorded 21 triple-digit temperatures—the most ever for the month of June.
- Austin recorded 12 consecutive triple-digit temperatures—the longest streak ever recorded in the month of June.
All of this and it’s just early July…
I hope everyone has a safe and happy Fourth of July weekend! Remember to stay cool and hydrated.
Gulf Low Remains Disorganized. Expected to Move Inland Thursday
Afternoon satellite and radar imagery indicate showers and thunderstorms associated with that area of low pressure off the southern coast of Texas (invest 95) have changed little in organization since this morning. The system remains fairly disorganized. Today, most of the rain associated with the disturbance has been well offshore of the Texas coast, with the rain wrapping inland over Galveston Bay. Forecasts call for the low pressure area to move slowly to the north this evening and tracking inland near Matagorda Bay sometime late Thursday night. From there, the majority of the forecast solutions call for the low to track northeast to a position near College Station Friday afternoon, and to just east of Dallas on Saturday.
The majority of the rain associated with the low pressure system is predicted to occur around the eastern side of the low, with just light amounts of precipitation on the western side. With that in mind, the majority of the rain from the low is expected to occur to the south of Interstate 10, with a special emphasis near the coast across Matagorda County. Across this area, showers and thunderstorms are forecast to increase after midnight Thursday night, with periods of rain and storms continuing Friday through Friday night. Some additional showers and thunderstorms will also be possible on Saturday, with the chance for rain diminishing Saturday evening. The rain may be heavy at times. The National Weather Service has posted a Flood Watch for Wharton and Matagorda Counties through Friday evening.
For the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, just a slight chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms is forecast Friday and Saturday afternoons.
Rain amounts between this evening and Saturday evening are forecast to be heaviest across Matagorda County, where totals of 2-4 inches are predicted. Isolated totals of 4-6 inches will be possible. Across Wharton County totals of 1-2 inches are forecast, and across Colorado County, totals are forecast to average less than an inch. For the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, totals are forecast to generally average less than a quarter inch.
NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Thursday through 7 pm Sunday:
A sunny, dry, and hot weather pattern is forecast to set up Sunday as the low lifts off to the north and the large heat dome returns to Texas. This dry and hot pattern looks to persist throughout all of next week. Triple digit temperatures appear likely.
Gulf Disturbance Remains Disorganized, but Expected to Bring Heavy Rain to Coastal Region
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico increased a bit Thursday, but they still remain disorganized. The Hurricane Hunters flew a reconnaissance mission through the disturbance Wednesday afternoon, and while they found a broad circulation and shifts in the wind direction, there was still no well-defined low-level circulation. National Hurricane forecasters call for the system to move slowly westward and approach the coast of southern Texas and northern Mexico by early Thursday. They feel some slow development is still possible and the system it could become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before it turns northwestward and moves inland on Thursday. NHC forecasters continue to show a medium, or 40 percent chance, for tropical development over the next 48 hours.
NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 06/29/2022 3:30 pm CDT
Most of Wednesday’s forecast solutions continue to cluster the model tracks, taking the system inland between Corpus Christi and Matagorda Bay late Thursday, then pulling the system north, to the east of Interstate 35, Friday and Saturday.
Forecasts continue to call for widespread and potentially heavy rain developing on the eastern side of the low Thursday through Friday as the disturbance tracks to the north. In general, expect widespread amounts of 2″-4″ for areas near and to the south of Interstate 10, with coastal areas potentially receiving between 4 and 7 inches. Based on the current track of the system, rain amounts through Saturday should average around a quarter inch or less across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions.
NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Wednesday through 7 pm Saturday:
Watching the Western Gulf for Possible Tropical Development
National Hurricane Center forecasters continue to closely monitor an area of low pressure located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This system is producing disorganized clouds, rain showers, and thunderstorms over the Gulf. The system is forecast to move slowly westward or west-southwestward and approach the middle or lower coast of Texas late Wednesday or Thursday. According to the Hurricane Center, slow development of the low will be possible, and it could become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before it moves inland. The National Hurricane Center has now raised the probability for development up to 40 percent over the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, this system will have the potential to cause heavy rain along portions of the Texas coast later this week.
Most of today’s computer-forecast solutions call for the low pressure system to move inland somewhere along the lower Texas coast during the day on Thursday, with the system then lifting north-northeast over the middle Texas coast and up across the Brazos Valley North Texas late Thursday into Friday. Forecasts continue to show the best chances for rain to be along and to the east of the low center.
For the area between La Grange and Matagorda, this will translate into a 40 percent chance for rain and thunderstorms Wednesday, and a 50-60 percent chance for rain and thunderstorms Thursday through Friday afternoon.
For the Hill Country region, generally dry weather is forecast Wednesday and Thursday, followed by a 20 percent chance for rain showers and thunderstorms Friday.
For the Austin and Central Texas region, generally dry weather is forecast Wednesday, with a 20 percent chance for scattered showers Thursday and a 30 percent chance for rain showers and thunderstorms Friday.
Rain amounts between this afternoon and Friday afternoon are forecast to average less than a quarter inch across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and between 1 and 3 inches across the middle Texas coast.
NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Tuesday through 7 pm Sunday:
A generally sunny, dry and hot weather pattern is forecast this weekend.
A Slightly Unsettled Weather Pattern Expected through Late Week
After three weeks of persistent hot and dry weather, some changes are finally in the forecast for this week. While the high pressure ridge is still over our region, it is beginning to shift off to the west. This is opening the door for a weak cold front to sink south across the area. As of early Monday afternoon, the front had cleared the Hill Country and most of Central Texas, stretching from just north of Houston, to near San Antonio and Del Rio. Readings are slightly cooler behind the front—mainly across North and West Texas. The front is forecast to sag south to the middle Texas tonight, then pull up stationary for the next couple of days.
High-resolution forecasts call for scattered to numerous rain showers and scattered thunderstorms to develop across the coastal plains, most of Central Texas and the eastern Hill Country late this afternoon and evening as an area of moisture spreads over the area behind the cold front. Severe storms are not anticipated, but a couple of the thunderstorms could produce small hail and wind gusts of 40-50 mph. Totals from rain this afternoon and evening are forecast to generally be in the range of 0.25-0.50 inches, with isolated totals to near 1 inch possible—especially for locations to the south of Interstate 10 and across the western/southern Hill Country. The probability for rain will generally be around 50-60 percent, with the rain diminishing late Monday evening and toward midnight.
High temperatures Monday are predicted to be in the mid and upper 90s across the region.
On Tuesday, the most favorable area for rain is forecast to be across the coastal plains region and the western Hill Country, where the probability for rain will be around 40-50 percent. Here, most rain amounts are predicted to be in the range of 0.25 to 0.50 inches. For most of the region, however, just a slight chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms is forecast. Expect a partly cloudy sky with high temperatures in the low and mid-90s.
National Weather Service Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Monday through 7 pm Tuesday:
The forecast for Wednesday through Friday is somewhat uncertain, since it revolves around the potential development and track of a weak area of low pressure currently located off the coast of southern Louisiana. Most forecast solutions call for the low to track to the southwest, reaching a position off the lower Texas coast Wednesday. Note that National Hurricane Center forecasters are giving this system just a ten percent chance for tropical development through Wednesday. The low is predicted to track north across Southeast and East-Central Texas Wednesday night through Thursday night, exiting off to the north Friday afternoon. Based on this trajectory, the best chance for rain with the low will be for areas underneath the low and to the east, with a much lower probability for rain on the western side of the low. This will translate into a 40-50 percent chance for rain for areas between Matagorda and La Grange, and just a 20 percent chance for rain across the rest of the region (including Austin) Wednesday through Friday. Moisture lingering across the area Saturday will cause a continued slight chance for rain. With the current trajectory of the low, it will lead to a sharp gradient of rain. Rain amounts Wednesday through Saturday are forecast to be in the range of 1-2 inches across the coastal plains region. For the rest of the region, totals are forecast to generally be around a quarter inch.
Keep in mind, should the low take a path further to the west, the chance for rain would likely increase for most of Central Texas and parts of the Hill Country.
Expect a partly cloudy sky Wednesday through Saturday. High temperatures are forecast to be in the mid and upper 90s, with upper 80s to low 90s expected across the coastal plains.
A return to mostly sunny, dry and very hot weather is forecast beginning Sunday as the ridge of high pressure shifts east. Forecasts call for the ridge center to set up over southern Oklahoma and northern Texas through most of next week. This will likely translate into a return of triple-digit temperatures—similar to what we have observed over the past couple of weeks. Daily high temperatures are predicted to be around 100-102 degrees. Looking out further to the week of July 11th, few changes are expected.
Tropical Weather Outlook
The National Hurricane Center is closely monitoring two strong tropical waves located over the central tropical Atlantic. Neither system poses a threat to the Gulf of Mexico at this time.
A tropical wave number one is located about 700 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Island, and it is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression or a tropical storm is likely to form during the next day or so before the system reaches the Windward Islands Tuesday night or possibly while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea Wednesday through Friday. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the system and has found winds to tropical storm force.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible over the Windward Islands and the northeastern coast of Venezuela Tuesday night and Wednesday.
NHC forecasters are giving this system a 70 percent chance for development over the next 48 hours, and 90 percent chance for tropical development over the next 5 days.
Tropical wave number two is located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could become conducive for gradual development later this week while the system moves west- northwestward at around 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
NHC forecasters are giving this system a zero percent chance for tropical development over the next 48 hours, and just a 20 percent chance for development over the next 5 days.
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. Development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves west-southwestward at about 10 mph toward the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, It is forecast to approach the coasts of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico during the next few days.
NHC forecasters are giving this system a 10 percent chance for tropical development over the next 48 hours, and a 20 percent chance for tropical development over the next 5 days.
Very Hot through the Weekend, but Some Rain is Finally on the Horizon
An August-like weather pattern across Texas this week has been responsible for widespread triple-digit temperatures at most locations. Unfortunately, few changes are expected as we head into the weekend. Friday’s weather maps showed a broad and strong ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere covering the southern U.S. and northern Mexico, with the ridge being centered over west-central Texas. Forecasts call for the ridge to remain across Texas through Sunday, followed by weakening and a slow shift to the west early next week.
This afternoon through Sunday, expect continued sunny, dry and very hot weather across the entire region. There will be a south-southwesterly breeze of 10-15 mph each day.
- High temperatures Friday through Sunday are forecast to be around 100-104 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and be near 98-101 degrees across the coastal plains.
Changes to the ongoing weather pattern are forecast to take place beginning Monday, when a strong trough of low pressure tracking east across the northern Plains causes the ridge over Texas to weaken, pushing the center of the ridge to the Desert Southwest. All of this will allow a weak cold front to sink south across Texas. Forecasts call for the cold front to reach northern Texas Sunday evening into Sunday night, and the Central Texas region sometime Monday afternoon into Monday night. The front is predicted to stall somewhere near the middle Texas coast late Monday night into Tuesday morning and remain over the general area through about next Thursday.
One additional feature to note influencing our weather mainly for areas along and east of Interstate 35 will be a small, non-tropical area of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. This system is forecast to push inland along the middle and upper Texas coast Monday afternoon into Tuesday. This low is expected to push an enhanced area of tropical moisture inland to about the Interstate 35 corridor Tuesday into Wednesday.
The combination of the advancing cold front, a much weaker ridge overhead, and increasing moisture off the Gulf will cause a chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms beginning Monday afternoon, continuing through Tuesday night. A slight chance for a few showers will linger into Wednesday. The most favorable area for rain next week is forecast to be across the coastal plains region, where the probability for rain will be at 40 percent. The probability for rain is forecast to be near 30-40 percent across Central Texas, and 20-30 percent across the Hill Country.
Unfortunately, a widespread or heavy rain is not expected, but a few isolated locations could see some a couple of good downpours. Expect a partly cloudy sky Monday through Wednesday. According to the National Weather Service, rain amounts are forecast to generally average between a quarter and a half inch across the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor. For areas east of I-35, totals of 0.5 to 1.25 inches are forecast.
NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Friday through 7 pm Wednesday:
Less hot temperatures are forecast for the first half of next week due to the weakened ridge and scattered rains. High temperatures Monday through Wednesday are forecast to generally be in the low and mid-90s across the region.
A mostly sunny, dry and hot pattern is forecast to return next Thursday as the ridge begins to reestablish itself across the south central and southeastern U.S. Long-range forecasts call for the ridge to hold over the area next weekend, continuing through the first week of July.
- High temperatures are predicted to be in the upper 90s next Thursday and Friday.
- High temperatures next weekend and the week of July 4th are forecast to be near 100-102 degrees.
Tropical Weather Outlook
Weather conditions are currently quiet across the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. Tropical cyclone development is not expected here over the next 5 days.
National Hurricane Center forecasters are closely monitoring a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form during the early to middle part of next week. The system is forecast to move westward at around 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic, approaching the Windward Islands around the middle of next week.
NHC forecasters are giving this system a 60 percent chance for tropical development over the next five days.
It’s too early to get a good handle on whether this system could eventually/potentially affect the Gulf of Mexico.
The Five-Planet Lineup Continues at Dawn
All five naked-eye planets remain lined up in the dawn sky for most of this week, about 45 minutes to an hour before sunrise. From Mercury through Saturn, they run from low in the east-northeastern sky, to high in the southern sky as dawn brightens. In the early dawn of Saturday June 25th, the waning crescent Moon will form a diagonal line with Venus and low Mercury. Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn are spread in a long line far to the upper right of this gathering. The planet Mercury will be leaving the special grouping late next week.
Beginning to Watch for Tropical Development in the Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic
Forecasters are monitoring an area of disturbed weather way out in the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Here, a tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. According to the National Hurricane Center, environmental conditions could become conducive for gradual development of this system by early next week as the disturbance moves westward over the tropical Atlantic at around 15 mph.
NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 06/23/2022 2:40 pm CDT
NHC forecasters call for the system to reach a position just east of the Windward Islands by about Tuesday or Wednesday or next week.
As of now, NHC forecasters are giving this system just a 20 percent chance for tropical development over the next five days. However, the probability for development could go up over the next couple of days as the system is picked up better by the computer-forecast models. It’s a bit early to see tropical development this far out into the tropical Atlantic in mid to late June, but it’s not unprecedented. This appears to be a sign the tropics are beginning to wake up in what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
The Heat Wave Continues with More Triple Digit Temperatures and No Rain
Welcome to the first day of astronomical summer! Summer is the longest season of the year, lasting 94 days (winter is the shortest season of the year, lasting 89 days). While astronomical summer is just getting started, summer-like temperatures arrived across Central Texas in early May this year, and they are showing no signs of backing down anytime soon. The average temperature so far through June is running between 4 and 5 degrees above normal, with the average now ranking among the hottest Junes of record—and hotter than June 2011.
Much of Texas continues to be under the influence of a powerful ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere that stretches from northern Mexico to the Great Lakes. The ridge is currently centered over the middle Mississippi Valley. The ridge is causing dry and very hot conditions from Texas, all the way north to the Canadian border. Forecasts call for the ridge to expand more to the west this week, while becoming more east-west oriented by late week. The center of the ridge is forecast to spread southwest to a position over Oklahoma, northern Texas, and Arkansas by the weekend. With the ridge center coming closer to our region, temperatures are forecast to rise a couple of degrees further Friday through the weekend.
In broad terms, no significant change in the weather can be expected this afternoon through Sunday. The summer doldrums will be in place, with continued sunny and dry weather. Temperatures will remain unseasonably hot, with readings each day reaching the triple digits. With a moderate pressure gradient in place this week, wind speeds are forecast to remain mostly in the range of 10-15 mph.
- This afternoon through Thursday, expect high temperatures to be near 100-103 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and be
- Friday through Sunday, expect high temperatures to be in the range of 101-105 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, with highs of 100-102 degrees across the coastal plains.
Some minor changes in the weather pattern are forecast to take place early next week when the center of the ridge shifts to the central Rockies and a trough dips south across the northern Plains states. A cold front associated with the trough is forecast to sink south into North Texas late Sunday and there are indications the front may slide south through Central Texas on Tuesday before pulling up stationary. Forecasts indicate a few widely scattered rain showers may develop along the cold front. However, these showers will be struggling to develop in a fairly dry and stable atmosphere. So the probability for rain will at best be 20 percent, and rain amounts, if any, should only total around a tenth of an inch. The front is not expected to have any significant impact on the temperature.
- High temperatures next Monday and Tuesday are predicted to be in the upper 90s across the northern Hill Country and be close to 100 degrees across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast.
More dry and very hot weather is forecast for the middle and latter parts of next week as the center of the ridge shifts east to the southern Rockies.
- High temperatures next Wednesday through Friday are forecast to generally be near 100-103 degrees across the entire region.
Long-range forecasts looking out into early July are unfortunately showing little change as large ridge of high pressure remains over our region.
Tropical Weather Outlook
Weather condition across the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico are currently very quiet. There are no systems in place which pose a threat for tropical development over the next 5 days.
NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 06/21/22 1:50 pm CDT
Interesting Note on the Summer Solstice
While the summer solstice marks the height point of the sun in our sky and the longest days, the hottest temperatures of summer typically don’t occur until a month or two later (if that’s even possible this year J). That’s because the land, oceans, and the atmosphere need those extra weeks to warm up, before the truly hot summer heat can begin. This phenomenon is called the lag of the seasons. In Austin and Central Texas, the hottest temperatures of summer typically occur in the first two weeks of August. Stay tuned; summer’s heat may get even worse.
The June Heat Rolls on. Still no Significant Rain on the Horizon
Data through the first half of June indicates the temperature across Central Texas and the Hill Country averaged among the hottest ever observed for June. Although parts of the area saw some rain showers on June 4th, the remainder of the month has been rain-free. So far this month, the weather has resembled what our region typically sees in the month August; much more than a typical June.
Unfortunately, the current hot and dry weather pattern is showing no signs of moderating or breaking down anytime soon. Friday morning’s weather maps showed a broad heat dome, or ridge of high pressure, covering all of the central and southern U.S., along with northern Mexico. The ridge was centered over Oklahoma and Kansas. Weather conditions underneath the ridge are quite stable and hot as most all of the active weather is currently tracking around the periphery of the high pressure ridge—well away from Texas. Forecasts call for the center of the ridge to drift east to the middle Mississippi Valley region early next week, then move back to the southern Plains states late next week into next weekend. This slight change in the position of the ridge is expected to have little to no impact on the very hot temperatures and dry weather across Texas over the next ten days.
In the near-term, the coastal plains region and the eastern counties of Central Texas could see a few isolated rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as a weak wave of low pressure tracks west into Southeast Texas, around the periphery of the upper ridge. This low will be fighting the stable influence of the large ridge, so only isolated activity is forecast. The probability for measurable rain will be at 20-30 percent, and rain amounts are forecast to only total around a tenth of an inch. The chance for rain is expected to diminish around sunset. Across the Hill Country and most of Central Texas, including the Austin area, no rain is forecast as the atmosphere will be too stable. Expect more sunny and very hot weather. Friday’s temperature is forecast to peak around 100-102 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the mid-90s across the coastal plains. Friday’s wind speeds are predicted to be in the range of 5-10 mph.
For the holiday weekend, continuing through the middle of next week, the weather looks to stay sunny, dry, and unseasonably hot. Expect little day-to-day change in the weather. Wind speeds are forecast to be in the range of 5-12 mph.
- High temperatures Saturday through Thursday are forecast to be near 100-103 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and be around 97-100 degrees across the coastal plains.
Late next week and next weekend, sunny weather and slightly hotter temperatures are forecast as center of the ridge moves closer to our area.
- High temperatures next Friday through Sunday are forecast to be near 103-106 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and be around 100-102 degrees across the coastal plains.
Looking out into the week of June 27th, no real change in the weather is expected as the ridge of high pressure continues over our area. Forecasts do call for the center of the ridge to slowly shift west to New Mexico and Arizona this week, which should bring our high temperature down 2-3 degrees.
Tropical Weather Update
National Hurricane Center forecasters are monitoring and area of showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This area of disorganized showers is associated with a trough of low pressure. Some slow development of this system is possible before the system moves inland over northern Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula Friday night or on Saturday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible over Honduras, Belize, northern Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico through the weekend.
Elsewhere, conditions are quiet and tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next five days.
Saharan Dust Update
The heavy plume of Saharan dust which moved inland off the Gulf Wednesday and Thursday is now spreading up to our north. According to the TCEQ, the density of the dust should decrease across the area today. The majority of the dust is forecast to exit our region over the weekend.
Another pulse of Saharan dust is forecast to spread into the state next Tuesday into Wednesday, but the density of this next batch of dust is not expected to be quite as heavy as we saw over the past couple of days.
Summer Solstice Happens Tuesday
The solstice will arrive Tuesday at 4:13 am CDT. The solstice is when the Sun is farthest north for the year (in Earth’s sky), and begins its six-month return southward. At this point, summer begins in the Northern Hemisphere while winter starts in the Southern Hemisphere. For people in the Northern Hemisphere, this will be the day with the most daylight of the entire year. In Austin, this day is 3 hours, 54 minutes longer than the December solstice.
The solstice is also the day when the midday Sun will pass closest it ever can to being straight overhead, and thus when your shadow becomes the shortest it can ever be. In Austin, the sun will reach a midday altitude of 83 degrees above the horizon—just 7 degrees from being directly overhead.
And if you have a good west-northwest horizon, mark carefully where the Sun sets Tuesday. In a few days you should be able to detect that the Sun is again starting to set just a little south, or to the left of that point.
Have a good weekend. Stay cool and stay hydrated. Continue to take extra precautions for the hot weather this weekend if you plan to spend any time outdoors or at the beach.
June Heatwave to Continue for at Least Another Week
This has been quite the June heatwave, with temperatures since the start of the month averaging among the hottest ever observed for June. Unfortunately, no significant change to the hot and dry pattern is expected over the coming week as the summertime heat dome continues to heavily influence our weather.
Monday’s weather maps showed a broad ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere stretching from northern Mexico to the middle Atlantic states. The ridge is causing a dry, stable and very hot weather pattern across all of Texas. Interestingly, the center of the ridge which had been over Texas this weekend, is now located over the middle Mississippi Valley. Forecasts call for the center of the ridge to remain east of Texas through the middle of the week, then shift west to the southern Plains late week and through the upcoming weekend.
High temperatures Monday afternoon through Thursday afternoon are forecast to be just slightly lower thanks to the center ridge being not directly over Texas. Wednesday is shaping up to have the least hot temperatures of the week, with readings then trending hotter late week and into the weekend.
- High temperatures Monday afternoon are predicted to be near 100-103 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the mid to upper 90s across the coastal plains.
- High temperatures Tuesday are forecast to be around 100 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the mid-90s across the coastal plains.
- High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be near 98-100 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the mid-90s across the coastal plains.
- High temperatures Thursday and Friday are predicted to be near 100-103 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the upper 90s across the coastal plains.
Mostly sunny and very hot weather is expected for the upcoming weekend as the large ridge of high pressure sets up over the middle of the country, including Texas. Forecasts indicate parts of Central Texas could see a slight possibility for a few spotty rain showers Saturday when a weak cold front slides southwest into Central Texas out of the Mississippi Valley. The probability for rain at any given location will be less than 20 percent. With little moisture in place, rain amounts, if any, will be less than a tenth of an inch. Overall, expect few changes to the ongoing hot and dry pattern.
- High temperatures Saturday and Sunday are forecast to be near 101-103 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and into the upper 90s across the coastal plains.
Looking out into next week, the latest set of forecast solutions calls for few changes in the sunny, hot, and dry pattern. The large ridge of high pressure is predicted to remain over Texas and the middle of the country throughout the week, causing more of the same. Daily high temperatures are forecast to remain around 100-103 degrees, with upper 90s towards the coast. Longer-range solutions call for similar conditions to continue through the end of the month.
Tropical Weather Outlook
A broad area of disturbed weather is located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, associated with a surface trough of low pressure. Some slow development is possible, and a tropical depression could form by late this week if the system remains over water. The disturbance is expected to move northwestward near the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras during that time. Regardless of development, this system could produce periods of heavy rainfall across portions of eastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras late this week.
NHC forecasters are giving this system a 10 percent chance for tropical development over the next 48 hours, and a 40 percent chance for tropical development over the next five days.
Rare Morning Sky Show
For the first time since Dec. 2004, five naked-eye planets have lined up at dawn in order of their distance from the sun. It’s a rare morning sky show. Next week, the Moon will hop from planet to planet, producing a series of early morning conjunctions. Set your alarm for about 45 minutes before sunrise and enjoy the show!
Have a good week.