Forecast for Central Texas

Wednesday
Wed
56 °F / 45 °F
0%
Mostly Cloudy, Breezy, Cooler
Thursday
Thu
55 °F / 45 °F
30%
30% Chance Rain Showers
Friday
Fri
75 °F / 55 °F
0%
Mostly Sunny
Saturday
Sat
82 °F / 62 °F
0%
Mostly Sunny
Sunday
Sun
82 °F / 62 °F
0%
Partly Cloudy
Updated February 28, 2024

Rainfall summary
Temperature summary
Humidity summary

Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

Monday, February 26, 2024 3:48 PM

It seems our weather will be going out of winter and directly to summer today and Tuesday as temperatures are forecast to warm into the 90s across the Hill Country and parts of Central Texas. Monday’s weather maps showed a broad ridge of high pressure covering Mexico and Texas, creating a very stable weather pattern. At the surface, the dry line will be pushing east across the Hill Country, bringing in dry and warm air. In additions, surface winds are expected to have a southwesterly, down sloping component to them, which should help give the temperature a boost. The result is expected to be summer-like readings for the Hill Country and parts of Central Texas.

  • High temperatures Monday are forecast to be in the low to mid-90s across the Hill Country, in the upper 80s to 90 degrees along the Interstate 35 corridor, and be near 80-82 degrees across the eastern counties of Central Texas and the middle Texas coast.
  • Lows Tuesday morning are predicted to be in the mid-60s.

Expect a south-southwesterly breeze at 10-15 mph, with occasional gusts to 25 mph Monday afternoon and Monday night.

Tuesday is forecast to have somewhat similar weather conditions as that of Monday. However, widespread low clouds developing Monday night are expected to be slower to burn off Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. In fact, a partly to mostly cloudy sky is expected for Tuesday afternoon. Breezy south winds of 10-15 mph are forecast Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening.

  • Tuesday’s high temperature is predicted to be near 90 degrees across the Hill Country, near 88-90 degrees along the I-35 corridor, and be close to 80-82 degrees elsewhere.
  • Lows Wednesday morning will range from the upper 40s across the Hill Country, to the mid and upper 50s across Central Texas, to the mid-60s across the coastal plains.

A change in the weather looks to take place Wednesday as a Canadian cold front pushes south through the area Wednesday morning, bringing cooler air. No rain is expected with the front, although clouds do look to hold in place throughout the day.  Strong winds are forecast to develop behind the front Wednesday through Wednesday night. Expect northerly winds at 20-25 mph, with some occasional gusts as high as 45 mph. The temperature will trend noticeably cooler behind the cold front!

  • High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be in the mid-50s across the Hill Country, in the low 60s across Central Texas, and in the low 70s across the coastal plains.
  • Lows Thursday and Friday mornings will include the upper 30s to low 40s across the Hill Country, the low 40s across Central Texas, and the mid and upper 40s across the coastal plains.

Cloudy and cool conditions are forecast Thursday as a wave of low pressure begins to push east out of West Texas. This feature is forecast to generate a few light rain showers across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions beginning late Wednesday night, continuing through Thursday afternoon. Rain amounts are forecast to be low—generally around a tenth of an inch or less.

Clouds will decrease Thursday night into Friday morning as the wave of low pressure exits to the east. Forecasts call for another weak ridge of high pressure to spread across Texas Friday and through the weekend. Expect mostly sunny and warmer weather through the period.

High temperatures in the low 70s Friday are forecast to warm close to 80 degrees Saturday and Sunday. Low temperatures are forecast to Saturday and Sunday mornings are forecast to be in the 50s to near 60 degrees.

Next Week

Forecasts call for clouds to increase late Sunday into Monday as another trough begins to approach our area from the west. This trough is forecast to cause the development of scattered rain showers and possibly a couple of isolated thunderstorms across the area Monday afternoon into Tuesday. As of now, rain amounts are forecast to remain below a half inch.

Dry weather is forecast next Wednesday. Another chance for rain is forecast next Thursday into Friday when another trough of low pressure spreads in from the west.

Temperatures next week are shaping up to be mild, with highs in the 70s, and lows in the 50s.

Have a good week.

Bob

 

Previous Blog Entries

Sunny and Spring-Like through the Middle of Next Week. A Chance For Rain Developing Thursday

Friday, February 23, 2024 2:36 PM

Thursday was the warmest day so far this year for the Hill Country and a large part of Central Texas as dry and very warm air developed behind the dry line. Readings generally topped out in the mid and upper 80s. It’s hard to believe it is the month of February. The average temperature so far this month is generally running between 2 and 4 degrees above normal. Month to date at Austin-Camp Mabry, it is the 13th warmest February on record.

A quiet and mild weather pattern continues across Texas as the jet stream and storm track remain well up to our north. High pressure in the upper atmosphere is expected to cause a sunny sky this afternoon through Sunday. A weak cold front moved across our area Thursday night, bringing in some slightly cooler air that will last into Saturday. Even with the cold front, readings are still predicted to stay well above normal for late February. Expect northerly winds with speeds of 10-15 mph Friday afternoon. Wind speeds look to decrease to 5-10 mph Friday night and Saturday. Breezy and warmer weather is forecast for Sunday. Expect southerly winds with speeds of 10-20 mph, and gusts to 35 mph.

  • High temperatures Friday are forecast to be in the mid-70s.
  • Lows Saturday morning will be in the mid and upper 40s.
  • High temperatures Saturday are predicted to be in the upper 70s.
  • Lows Sunday morning will be in the low 50s.
  • High temperatures Sunday are forecast to be in the low and mid-80s across the Hill Country and Central Texas, and in the upper 70s across the coastal region.
  • Lows Monday morning are forecast to be close to 60 degrees.

Looking at next week’s weather, breezy and unseasonably warm conditions are forecast Monday through Tuesday. The sky will be mostly sunny on Monday, but turn partly to mostly cloudy Tuesday. Wind speeds of 10-20 mph are forecast both days.

  • High temperatures Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 80s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and be around 78-80 degrees across the coastal plains.
  • Lows Tuesday and Wednesday mornings are forecast to be in the low and mid-60s.

Forecasts call for a Pacific cold front to push south across our area on Wednesday, bringing with it some slightly cooler air. No rain is predicted along the front.

  • Wednesday’s high temperature will range from the upper 60s across the Hill Country, to the upper 70s near the coast.
  • Lows Thursday morning will include the low and mid-40s across the Hill Country, the mid-40s across Central Texas, and the low 50s coastal area.

There will be a 30-40 percent chance for the development of some scattered light rain showers across the area beginning Wednesday night, continuing through Friday morning due to a trough of low pressure holding back across the Desert Southwest. The rain is forecast to be light, with most totals staying below a quarter inch. The chance for rain should diminish Friday afternoon as the trough finally exits to the northeast.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 6 pm Friday through 6 pm Next Friday:

rain4cast0223

  • High temperatures next Thursday and Friday are forecast to be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Dry and warm weather is forecast next weekend, with high temperatures in the 70s.

Looking out into the week of March 4th, long-range forecasts do suggest a chance for rain developing the first half of the week as the next trough and cold front move across Texas. Mild temperatures will continue, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s to low 50s.

Full Moon Friday Night

The February full moon, or snow moon,  will occur Friday night. Look for the bright, round full moon ascending in the east shortly after sunset, as twilight darkens It will glow high in the south near midnight and drop low in the west shortly before sunrise on February 24.

The February full moon is considered a micromoon. It will be 2024’s farthest – and only – full micromoon this year. At apogee, its distance will be 252,225 miles (405,917 km). That’s in contrast to the average distance between the Earth and moon, 238,900 miles (384,472 km). A full micromoon can appear about 14% smaller than a full moon supermoon, but its size difference is tough to see with the eye.

Have  good weekend!

Bob

Sunny, Dry, and Mild Weather Conditions Expected All Week

Monday, February 19, 2024 4:04 PM

In the wake of Friday’s cold front, weekend temperatures turned significantly colder. Highs were generally in the 40s and 50s, with lows in the 20s and 30s. The temperature fell to or below freezing across most the region Sunday morning. Lows included the low, mid, and upper 20s across the Hill Country, the low 30s across Central Texas, and the mid to upper 30s across the coastal plains. According to LCRA’s Hydromet, the lowest observed temperature was 18 degrees at a gauge located southeast of Abilene, in Callahan County. A light freeze occurred across parts of the Hill Country and Central Texas early Monday morning, but most areas stayed above freezing.

The chilly temperatures we saw over the weekend will be the last of winter’s cold we will see for a good while. Significantly milder, spring-like temperatures are forecast to develop this week and continue through late next week.

A sunny and dry weather pattern is forecast to take hold across Texas for the next several days as a stable ridge of high pressure spreads east out of Mexico. The cold dome of Canadian high pressure which spread south across Texas over the weekend has now shifted east to the Mississippi Valley. Southerly breezes have returned to the area along with warmer temperatures. The temperature is predicted to trend progressively warmer Tuesday through Thursday as southerly breezes pull warm air north from the Gulf. Low clouds and some patchy fog will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Otherwise, the sky will be mostly sunny throughout the week.

Breezy conditions are forecast to develop Wednesday and Thursday. Expect southerly winds at 10-20 mph, with occasional gusts to 30 mph.

  • Monday’s high temperature is forecast to be around 68-70 degrees, with mid-60s towards the coast.
  • Lows Tuesday morning will range from the low 40s west, to the upper 40s near the coast.
  • High temperatures Tuesday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 70s.
  • Lows Wednesday morning will include the low and mid-50s across the Hill Country, with upper 50s at most other locations.
  • Lows Thursday morning are forecast to be near 58-60 degrees.
  • High temperatures Thursday are predicted to be around 80-82 degrees.

A Pacific cold front is forecast to slide south across Texas Thursday afternoon and evening, bringing just slightly cooler temperatures for Friday and the weekend. No rain is expected with the cold front. High temperatures Friday are predicted to be in the low 70s, warming to the mid-70s Saturday and the upper 70s Sunday. Lows throughout the period are forecast to be in the 50s.

Looking ahead to next week, dry and mild weather conditions are forecast to continue as the storm track and the jet stream are predicted to remain well to the north of Texas. Long-range forecast solutions don’t indicate any strong cold fronts on the horizon. Also of note, our region is currently in the grips of a dry weather. And the latest outlook for March does not looking very promising for the development of significant rain. The next chance for rain looks to occur sometime around March 3rd or 4th.

Have a good week.

Bob

Turning Colder this Weekend. Warm, Spring-Like Weather Follows Next Week

Friday, February 16, 2024 12:58 PM

A trough of low pressure pushing northeast out of Mexico has brought a large area of light to moderate rain to Deep South Texas, along with the middle and upper Texas coast. The rain extended inland as far as Gonzales, La Grange, and Brenham, but was heaviest close to coast. Totals as of noon Friday generally averaged less than a half inch for areas located to the south of Interstate 10. However, a couple of LCRA Hydromet gauges located in central and western Wharton County have recorded close to an inch of rain. Forecasts call for the rain over the coastal plains to taper off by mid-afternoon Friday as the trough of low pressure exits to the east.  No rain has fallen across the Hill Country or the Interstate 35 corridor.

The next weather feature of interest is a strong cold front that is currently pushing south out of North Texas. As of midday, the front stretched from the DFW metroplex, to Abilene and Midland. Forecasts call for the front to move across the northern Hill Country early to mid-afternoon, and the Austin/Central Texas area in the late afternoon to early evening. The cold front is predicted to push off the middle Texas coast sometime before midnight Friday night.

In advance of Friday’s cold front, weather conditions are forecast to be partly to mostly cloudy and warm. The temperature is forecast to reach the low and mid-70s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, but hold in the mid and upper 60s across the coastal plains. A narrow band of rain showers is predicted to develop along the cold front as it moves across Central Texas Friday afternoon and the middle Texas coast Friday evening. The chance for rain will end once the cold fonts moves through the area. Rain amounts, if any, are forecast to average around a tenth of an inch or less.

Breezy and colder weather will develop behind the cold front Friday evening and Friday night. Expect northerly winds with speeds of 10-20 mph and gusts to 30 mph Friday evening and Friday night. The strong winds look to continue Saturday, with some gusts to 35 mph possible. Wind speeds should decrease to 10-15 mph Saturday evening. Expect a mostly cloudy sky Friday night through Saturday morning. The sky is predicted to become sunny Saturday afternoon. Sunny and dry weather will continue Sunday.

Friday’s cold front will bring a brief return to winter-like temperatures. In fact a light freeze is forecast across the Hill Country and parts of Central Texas Sunday morning!

  • Lows Saturday morning are forecast to be in the mid-30s across the Hill Country, be around 40 degrees across Central Texas, and the mid-40s across the coastal plains.
  • High temperatures Saturday are predicted to be close to 50 degrees.
  • Low temperatures Sunday morning are forecast to be in the upper 20s across the Hill Country, in the low and mid-30s across Central Texas, and the mid-30s across the coastal plains.
  • High temperatures Sunday are predicted to be in the mid and upper 50s.
  • Lows Monday morning will generally be in the upper 30s.

Sunny, dry, and spring-like weather is forecast across the region all of next week as a stable ridge of high pressure spreads across Texas out of Mexico. Cold air from the weekend looks to move out quickly on Monday as southerly breezes return to the area.

  • High temperatures Monday are forecast to be in the low 70s.
  • High temperatures Tuesday through Thursday are predicted to be near 80-83 degrees.
  • High temperatures Friday are forecast to be near 70 degrees.
  • Low temperatures Tuesday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 40s.
  • Lows Wednesday, Thursday and Friday mornings are forecast to be in the mid and upper 50s.

A dry, Pacific cold front is predicted to push across the area next Friday, bringing slightly cooler air for Friday and next weekend. However, milder air is forecast to return for the week of February 26th as high temperatures return to the upper 70s to 80 degrees.

Is winter over after this weekend’s cold blast? It seems this may very well be the case as very mild temperatures are predicted to remain in place trough the end of the month, continuing into early March. Historically, the average date of last freeze for most of our area is generally between February 20th and 25th. Mother Nature could still throw us a curve ball or two in March, but the long-range computer-forecast data is not calling for any additional arctic air masses at least trough the first week of March.

Only Two Planets Currently Visible

If you’re hoping to do some star and planet gazing this weekend, note that only two planets are currently visible. In the evening sky, Jupiter is the bright white dot high in the southwest at dusk; lower in the west-southwest later. It sets in the west by about 11 pm. In a telescope, Jupiter has shrunk to only 36 arcseconds wide. The bright planet Venus can be spotted in the southeastern sky as dawn gets under way. It’s still hanging low there when dawn grows too bright.

Mercury, Jupiter, and Mars are all lost right now in the either sunrise or sunset.

Have a good weekend.

Bob

 

Temperatures Trending Milder this Week. A Chance for Rain Friday and Friday Night

Monday, February 12, 2024 2:55 PM

The storm system responsible for the wet and cloudy weather over the weekend has completely exited our region and is now headed to the eastern U.S. The system brought widespread rain to much of the Hill Country and Central Texas, but little rain for areas south of Interstate 10. Weekend totals generally averaged between 1 and 1.5 inches across the Hill Country, between 0.75 and 1.25 inches across Central Texas, and less than a tenth of a inch across the coastal plains.

Sunny, breezy, and cooler conditions are in place as we start off the new week. A strong pressure gradient behind the departing storm system will likely cause wind gusts to near 30 mph through late afternoon. Wind speeds should diminish to around 5-10 mph Monday evening and Monday night. Monday’s temperature is predicted to warm to about 58-60 degrees.

Clear and chilly conditions are forecast Monday night. Lows Tuesday morning will include the low and mid-30s across the Hill Country, the mid-30s across Central Texas, and the upper 30s across the coastal plains.

Quiet, dry, and warmer weather is forecast Tuesday through Thursday as a weak ridge of high pressure slides across Texas. Expect a sunny to mostly sunny sky Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by a mostly cloudy sky Thursday. Light southerly breezes will be in place Tuesday and Wednesday, with breezy conditions developing Thursday.

  • High temperatures are forecast to be in the mid-60s Tuesday, the upper 60s Wednesday, and the low 70s Thursday.
  • Lows Wednesday morning are forecast to be in the low 40s.
  • Lows Thursday morning are forecast to be in the low 50s.
  • Lows Friday morning are predicted to be in the upper 50s

A change in the weather looks to take place beginning Thursday night when a Pacific trough of low pressure is forecast to lift northeast out of northeastern Mexico, pulling clouds and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into South and Central Texas. This system is forecast to take a more southerly track compared to past few systems. As a result, the focus for rain with this system is expected to be across Deep South Texas, rather than Central Texas or the Hill Country.

Clouds are forecast to increase Thursday and Thursday night. There will be a 20 percent chance for light rain showers after midnight Thursday night, and a 30-40 percent chance for rain showers Friday through Friday night. A slight chance for rain will continue through Saturday morning, then diminish by Saturday afternoon.

Rain amounts from this next system are not expected to be very heavy, with the highest totals expected across the coastal region. Totals through Saturday are forecast to average between 0.5 and 1 inch across the coastal plains, between 0.10 and 0.5 inches across Central Texas, and around a tenth of an inch or less across the Hill Country.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 6 pm Monday through 6 pm Saturday:

rain4cast0212

Following the passage of the upper trough, forecasts call for a Canadian cold front to sweep south across Texas late Friday night. Breezy, and cooler weather will follow cold front Saturday through Sunday. A light freeze will be possible for parts of the Hill Country next Sunday morning.

  • High temperatures Saturday and Sunday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 50s.
  • Lows Sunday morning will include the low 30s across the Hill Country, the low and mid-30s across Central Texas, and the mid-30s across the coastal plains.
  • Lows Monday morning are forecast to be in the upper 30s to low 40s.

The outlook for next week calls for mostly sunny, dry, and mild weather conditions across the region. High temperatures are predicted to be in the upper 60s to low 70s. Lows are forecast to be mostly in the 50s.

The next chance for rain is expected to occur sometime late next week into the following weekend when the next Pacific trough of low pressure moves towards Texas out of the Desert Southwest.

Bob

Two Rounds of Showers and Thunderstorms Expected this Weekend

Friday, February 9, 2024 2:10 PM

It’s shaping up to be a cloudy and wet weekend across the region as a couple of potent troughs of low pressure push east across Texas and the southern Plains. The rain is predicted to move out Sunday afternoon, followed by sunny and slight cooler weather early next week.

Friday’s satellite view showed widespread middle and high-level clouds spreading from the eastern Pacific, to Texas, and the Tennessee Valley. At the same time, moisture spreading north from the Gulf of Mexico was bringing considerable low-level clouds to much of the area. This trend is expected to continue Friday afternoon and Friday, resulting in an overcast to mostly cloudy sky. No significant rain is forecast Friday afternoon or evening, although a couple of brief, spotty showers will be possible for areas east of Interstate 35 . Expect a south breeze at 10-15 mph. Friday’s temperatures should climb to the low and mid-70s.

The chance for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms looks to increase across the Hill Country in the hours before daybreak Saturday as the first of two Pacific troughs of low pressure track into Texas out of northern Mexico. Forecasts call for the showers and thunderstorms to slowly spread east, covering the Central Texas and the middle Texas coastal regions Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon. The probability for rain Saturday will be near 80-90 percent. The rain is forecast to taper off across the Hill Country Saturday afternoon and in the late afternoon to early evening across Central Texas and the coastal plains.

There will be a small risk for a few Saturday’s storms to become strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of the region under a Marginal Risk, or 1 out of 5 risk, for severe thunderstorms. The primary severe weather threat is expected to be large hail, followed by marginally severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado.

severe0209

Unlike recent rain events, conditions this weekend appear more favorable to bring widespread rain to the Hill Country, along with the rest of the region. Rain amounts through Saturday evening are predicted to generally be in the range of 0.5 to 1 inch. Slightly higher totals to around 1.5 inches are forecast for the area between Bastrop and Columbus.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid for the Period through 6 am Sunday:

rain4cast0209

Occasional light rain showers are forecast across the region Saturday evening.

Attention then turns to Pacific trough number two that is forecast to sink south into Northwest Texas Saturday night, then move east across the southern Plains Sunday into Sunday night. The trough is expected to drive a Canadian cold front southeast across the region late Saturday night through midday Sunday. Forecasts call for an area of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms to develop across the Hill Country beginning around midnight Saturday night as the cold front pushes east out of West Texas. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are predicted to spread east across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast late Saturday night through Sunday morning. The probability for rain will be near 80 percent. Once again, there will be a low-end threat for a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms that could produce large hail and damaging winds.

Rain amounts from this second round of rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast to generally average between a quarter and a half inch, with isolated higher totals.

The chance for rain looks to taper off from west to east late Sunday morning as the cold front pushes into the Gulf of Mexico. A mostly sunny sky is forecast across the region Sunday afternoon. Breezy and slightly cooler weather is predicted for Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Expect a westerly wind at 10-15 mph, with occasional gust to 25 mph.

Sunday’s high temperature will range from the low 60s west, to the low 70s near the coast. Lows Sunday morning will include the mid-30s across the Hill Country, the upper 30s across Central Texas, and the low 40s towards the coast.

Sunny and dry weather is forecast next Monday through Wednesday. The sky will become mostly cloudy next Thursday. Daytime temperatures are forecast to be mild, with cool readings at night.

  • A light freeze will be possible across the Hill Country and some low-lying areas of Central Texas Monday night. Lows Tuesday morning will include the low 30s across the Hill Country, the low and mid-30s across Central Texas, and the upper 30s across the coastal plains.

High temperatures Tuesday will be in the low 60s, warming to the upper 60s Wednesday and Thursday. Lows Wednesday  and Thursday mornings are forecast to be in the 40s.

Forecasts point toward an increasing chance for rain across our region beginning next Friday, continuing through next Sunday as a slow-moving trough of low pressure moves north out of Mexico. No significant change in the temperature is forecast through the week of February 19th.

Have a good weekend!

Bob

Mild Temperatures Will Continue this Week. Next Chance for Rain Expected this Weekend

Monday, February 5, 2024 2:49 PM

Windy conditions with gusts to 40-45 mph occurred Sunday in the wake of a cold front and storm system which passed north of our area. A strong pressure gradient behind the departing storm system will keep conditions breezy this afternoon. Gusts to near 25 mph can be expected through late afternoon. Wind speeds should finally diminish to around 5-10 mph Monday evening.

Moisture wrapping around the storm system to our east will keep this afternoon’s sky mostly cloudy to partly cloudy. However, no precipitation is forecast. Afternoon temperatures should top out in the low 60s. Monday night is shaping up to be the chilliest night of the week. Under a clear sky, lows Tuesday morning will generally be in the upper 30s to low 40s.

A mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky is forecast Tuesday through Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure spreads over Texas out of northern Mexico. High temperatures both days are predicted to be near 68-70 degrees. Lows Wednesday morning are forecast to be in the low and mid-40s. Breezy conditions look to develop across the region Wednesday in advance of a Pacific storm system tracking east across the southern Rockies. Expect southerly breezes of 15-25 mph with gusts to 25 mph Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Thursday and Friday’s weather will feature a mostly cloudy sky as considerable moisture is drawn north from the Gulf of Mexico. A Pacific cold front is forecast to slowly push east out of West Texas, then stall somewhere across the Hill Country Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. There may be just enough moisture in place to cause a few spotty light rain showers for areas along and east of Interstate 35 Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon. The probability for rain will only be 20 percent and rain amounts should total less than a tenth of an inch. High temperatures both days are predicted to be near 70-72 degrees.

A cloudy and somewhat unsettled weather pattern is forecast Saturday through next Monday as a Pacific trough of low pressure slowly dips south out of the southern Plains and moves across Texas. The approaching trough is forecast to cause a 30-40 percent chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday through Sunday, with the chance for rain increasing to 50 percent on Monday. Similar to the past couple of rain events, the best chance for rain this upcoming period looks to be focused over areas along and east of Interstate 35 and not as much across the Hill Country. The chance for rain should end from west to east late Monday as the trough exits to the east.

Rain amounts Saturday through Monday are forecast to average around a quarter inch or less across the Hill Country. For the rest of the area, totals should generally average between 0.5 and 1 inch.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 6 pm Next Monday, February 12th:

rain4cast0205

Weekend high temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 60s. Lows are predicted to be in the 50s.

Mostly sunny and dry weather is forecast next Tuesday through Thursday as a weak ridge of high pressure spreads over Texas. Expect high temperatures in the 60s and low temperatures in the 40s. Forecasts point toward an increasing chance for rain across the area next Friday, continuing into next weekend.

Long-range forecast data does not show any arctic air headed for Texas over the next two and a half weeks.

Have a good week.

Bob

 

Strong to Severe Storms Possible Friday Night

Friday, February 2, 2024 12:22 PM

Key Messages

  • Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread across the area beginning this afternoon, continuing overnight and into early Saturday
  • Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Friday evening and Friday night.
  • The Hill Country and most of Central Texas, including the Austin metro, has been placed under a Slight Risk, or a 2 out of 5 risk, for severe storms through sunrise Saturday
  • The primary severe threat will be large hail. There will be a secondary risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes
  • The primary window for severe storms across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions will be between 7 pm and 4 am
  • Locally heavy rainfall will be possible from some of the storms
  • Rain amounts through Saturday morning are forecast to generally be in the range of 0.5 to 1.5 inches
  • Strong and gusty winds will develop Saturday and continue through late Sunday. A Wind Advisory will likely be posted soon for Sunday

Discussion

A portion of the powerful storm system which tracked inland across California Thursday is moving east and is expected to bring an increasing chance for rain showers and thunderstorms to our region beginning this afternoon. Ahead of this system, Gulf moisture is rapidly returning to Central and South Texas. With increasing atmospheric lift arriving from the west, scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are predicted to develop across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Friday afternoon. With atmospheric lift increasing and a favorable position of the jet stream, showers and thunderstorms are predicted to increase in areal coverage and intensity beginning Friday evening. Meanwhile, atmospheric conditions are predicted to become increasingly favorable for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms Friday evening—especially across the Hill Country and parts of Central Texas. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Hill Country and the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor under a Slight Risk, or a 2 out of 5 risk, for severe thunderstorms through 6 am Saturday. The eastern half of Central Texas and the middle Texas coast has been placed under a Marginal Risk, or 1 out of 5 risk, for severe storms.

severe0201

The main time period for severe storms is expected to be roughly between 7 pm Friday evening and 4 am Saturday.

The primary severe weather threat will be large hail. However, secondary threats of isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and an isolated tornado or two will also be in play. The storms are forecast to exit the Hill Country and Central Texas regions by about sunrise Saturday, and the coastal region by mid-morning Saturday as a Pacific cold front brings in drier and more stable.

Moisture levels ahead of this system will support the development of some moderate to heavy rainfall, but due the progressive nature of the storms, rain totals are not forecast to be all that high. The National Weather Service is calling for widespread totals of 0.5 to 1.5 inches, with some isolated totals to near 2 inches towards the coast.  The ground is still quite wet for areas along and east of I-35, and this additional rain will likely generate runoff into area creeks and rivers. But significant flooding concerns are not anticipated.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 6 pm Friday through 6 pm Sunday:

rain4cast0201

The rain and storms are forecast to push east into the Gulf of Mexico by mid-morning Saturday. Behind the Pacific cold front, the clouds will clear from west to east Saturday morning. Sunny and dry weather is forecast Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

  • Saturday’s temperature is forecast to warm to around 68-70 degrees.
  • Lows Sunday morning will be in the upper 40s.
  • High temperatures Sunday are forecast to be in the mid-60s.
  • Lows Monday morning will range from the low 40s west, to the upper 40s near the coast.

Winds

Breezy conditions will develop behind the Pacific cold front Saturday. Expect westerly winds with speeds of 10-15 mph, with gusts to 25 mph.

Stronger winds are predicted to develop Saturday night through Sunday as a second cold front moves across the area. For Saturday night through Sunday evening, expect westerly winds with speeds of 15-25 mph and occasional gusts to 40 mph. Wind speeds are forecast to decrease to 10-15 mph Monday.

Next Week

Sunny, dry, and mild weather is forecast next Monday through Thursday.  Expect daily high temperatures in the 60s to low 70s, with lows in the 40s to low 50s. A chance for rain is forecast to develop next Friday into Saturday.

Have a good weekend.

Bob

Sunny and Mild through Late Week. Widespread Rain Expected Late Friday into Saturday

Monday, January 29, 2024 4:29 PM

In the wake of the arctic and wet weather experienced over the past couple of weeks, a quiet and dry weather pattern has now set up across Texas. Forecasts call for a stable ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere to remain over the area through late week, causing continued benign weather conditions. The sky will be clear to mostly sunny Monday through Thursday, with a partly to mostly cloudy sky developing on Friday. Expect mild days and cool nights through late week.

  • Daily high temperatures this week are predicted to be near 68-72 degrees.
  • Low temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday mornings are forecast to be in the low and mid-40s.
  • Low temperatures Thursday and Friday mornings are forecast to be in the upper 40s to low 50s.

A change in the weather is forecast to take place Friday night through Saturday when a Pacific trough of low pressure moves across North Texas out of the Desert Southwest. This system is expected to pull clouds and moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico beginning Friday afternoon, followed by the development of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms Friday evening and Friday night. Forecasts call multiple rounds of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms to spread across the area Saturday through Saturday evening as the upper trough move across North Texas. The chance for rain looks to diminish Saturday night and toward daybreak Sunday.

Similar to what occurred with the last rain event, the heaviest rain from this next system is forecast to occur over the area along and east of Interstate 35, with somewhat lower amounts expected across the Hill Country. With the ground still very wet from recent rains, this next round of rain could result in considerable runoff and potential flooding for areas east of I-35.

The National Weather Service rainfall forecast for the upcoming period calls for totals of 0.25 to 0.5 inches across the western Hill Country, and close to an inch across the eastern Hill Country. For the rest of the region totals are forecast to generally average between 1 and 1.5 inches.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 6 pm Friday through 6 pm next Monday:

rain4cast0129

A Pacific cold front is predicted to push east across the area early Sunday, bringing dry and slightly cooler air. Mostly sunny conditions are forecast Sunday, continuing through most of next week. Due to a strong pressure gradient behind the cold front, quite breezy conditions are forecast to develop across the area next Sunday and continue through Monday. Expect northwesterly breezes at 15-25 mph, with occasional higher gusts.

Daily high temperatures next week are forecast to be mostly in the low 60s, with lows in the 40s to near 50 degrees.

Long-range forecasts show the next chance for rain developing sometime late next week.

Have a good week.

Bob

A Dry and Mild Weather Pattern Setting Up for Next Week

Friday, January 26, 2024 1:59 PM

The trough of low pressure responsible for rounds of rain earlier this week finally exited our region Thursday, ending the threat for additional heavy rain. However, a separate low pressure trough dipping south from the southern Rockies looks to move just close enough to bring our region one more chance for rain before the weekend. Rain from this next system isn’t expected to be anywhere near as heavy as the rain that fell earlier this week.

Foggy conditions Friday morning will give way to a cloudy to mostly cloudy sky Friday afternoon. Forecasts call the next trough of low pressure to track east across the Texas Panhandle and Northwest Texas regions Friday afternoon and Friday night, then shift east to the middle Mississippi Valley late Saturday. Atmospheric lift out ahead of the trough is expected to cause an area of scattered light showers and a few isolated thunderstorms to spread across the northern half of Texas, including the northern Hill Country, Friday afternoon into Friday evening. The probability for rain will be near 50 percent. Across the remainder of the Hill Country, Central Texas and the middle Texas coast, a slight chance for spotty rain showers and a couple of isolated thunderstorms is forecast from late Friday afternoon through Friday evening as moisture increases ahead of the upper trough. The probability for rain will be around 40 percent.

Rain amounts, if any, are forecast to only average around a tenth of an inch.

NWS Rain Forecast for the Period 6 pm Friday through 6 pm Saturday:

rain4cast0126

The chance for rain is predicted to end from west to east late Friday evening and toward midnight when a Pacific cold front pushes to the east out of West Texas, bringing drier and more stable air. Behind the cold front, northwesterly winds are forecast to increase to a range of 10-20 mph.

  • High temperatures Friday are forecast to be in the low 60s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, with mid and upper 60s expected towards the coast.
  • Low temperatures Saturday morning will range from the mid-40s across the Hill Country, to the mid-50s across the coastal plains.

On Saturday, widespread low clouds are forecast through the morning hours, but sunny weather will develop in the afternoon. A strong pressure gradient behind the cold front will cause breezy northwesterly winds with speeds of 10-20 mph and occasional gusts to 30 mph. The wind is expected to decrease to around 10-15 mph Saturday evening and Saturday night. Sunny and less breezy weather looks to follow on Sunday. Expect some chilly temperatures Saturday and Sunday nights.

  • High temperatures Saturday are forecast to be around 58-60 degrees.
  • Lows Sunday and Monday mornings will include the mid-30s across the Hill Country, the upper 30s across Central Texas, and the upper 30s to low 40s across the coastal plains.
  • High temperatures Sunday are forecast to be in the low 60s.

Mostly sunny, dry, and mild weather is forecast all of next week as stable ridge of high pressure spreads over Texas from the western U.S. Expect daily high temperatures to be in the upper 60s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the mid and upper 40s.

Beginning late Friday, continuing through next Saturday, there will be an increasing chance for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms across the region when a large Pacific trough of low pressure moves from the Desert Southwest to the southern Plains states. Forecasts currently call for totals to average around a half inch. These totals could trend a little higher as we get closer to next weekend.

Looking further ahead, little change in the temperature is forecast for the first full week of February.

Have a great weekend!

Bob