Bob Rose on the weather - LCRA Bob Rose on the weather - LCRA


Forecast for Central Texas

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Mostly SunnySunnySunny Rain Showers and T-Storms LikelyMostly Sunny
Updated January 28, 2022

Rainfall summary
Temperature summary
Humidity summary

Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

Friday, January 28, 2022 2:38 PM

A cold front quietly tracked south across our region Thursday night, bringing with it more cool and dry air. A ridge of high pressure located to our west is going to keep weather conditions sunny and dry this afternoon, Saturday and Sunday. This latest batch of cool air is expected to hang around into Saturday, before milder readings develop Saturday afternoon through Sunday. But do note a freeze is forecast across the Hill Country both Friday night and Saturday night and across the Central Texas and the coastal regions Friday night. Northwesterly winds at 10-20 mph will be in place this afternoon. Wind speeds should become light Friday night and remain between 5 and 10 mph through the weekend.  Overall, this weekend`s weather is shaping up to be about as close to picture perfect as you can get in late January.

  • High temperatures Friday afternoon are forecast to be in the mid and upper 50s.
  • Lows Saturday morning are predicted to be in the mid and upper 20s across the Hill Country, and in the lower 30s at most other locations.
  • High temperatures Sunday are forecast to be in the mid-60s.
  • Lows Sunday morning will include the low 30s across the Hill Country, and be in the mid to upper 30s elsewhere.
  • High temperatures Sunday are predicted to be around 68-70 degrees.
  • Lows Monday morning will range from the mid-40s across the Hill Country, to the low 50s near the coast.

A significant change in the weather is forecast to take place Sunday night into Monday when a good chance for widespread rain and thunderstorms is expected to take place. For a large part of the Hill Country, this is looking like the first widespread rain event to take place in more than 2 months. A potent trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere currently located about 500 miles west of California, is forecast to track east over the weekend and move across Texas on Monday. The trough is expected to have an impressive amount of atmospheric lift, but limited moisture to work—especially for the area west of Interstate 35. Light rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are predicted to develop across the region after midnight Sunday night. This will be followed by widespread rain showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday. The rain is forecast to taper off across the Hill Country by about noon, with the sky then becoming mostly sunny in the afternoon. The rain is forecast taper off across Central Texas by early Monday afternoon and across the coastal region in the late afternoon. The threat for any strong to severe thunderstorms with this system will be very low.

Rain amounts from the trough are forecast to be the lowest across the Hill Country, where totals should average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches. Across Central Texas, totals are forecast to average between 0.5 and 1 inch, while totals of 1-2 inches are predicted for the middle Texas coast.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 6 pm Friday through 6 pm Wednesday:

  • Sunny, dry, and mild weather is forecast Tuesday into Wednesday morning in the wake of Monday’s trough of low pressure.
  • Lows Tuesday morning will range from the upper 30s to low 40s west, to the low 50s near the coast.
  • High temperatures Tuesday are forecast to be near 70 degrees.
  • Lows Wednesday morning will range from the mid-40s Hill Country, to the mid-50s near the coast.
  • High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be around 68-72 degrees.

A change back to a much colder pattern is forecast late next week when an arctic cold front presses south into Texas. Forecasts call for a large trough of low pressure to develop south out of western Canada the middle of next week. This will allow an area of arctic air to spread south down the Plains states. The arctic front, or leading edge of the arctic air, is forecast to sweep across Central and South Texas Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening. Conditions appear favorable for a 40-50 percent chance for light rain showers to develop along and behind the cold front through Wednesday night. Rain amounts are predicted to average less than a quarter inch.

I will point out some of the forecast solutions are indicating a potential for some snow to develop across the Hill Country and the northern half of Central Texas Wednesday night into early Thursday morning as the arctic air quickly settles over the area. My confidence in this wintery weather developing is currently low. But it is a slight possibility. Forecasters should have a better handle on this potential threat for wintery weather early next week.

In the wake of Wednesday’s cold front, sunny, dry and very cold weather is forecast next Thursday, continuing into next weekend. Here’s rough estimate of the kind of temperatures I expect:

  • Lows Thursday morning are forecast to be close to 30 degrees.
  • Lows Friday and Saturday mornings are forecast to be in the mid and upper 20s.
  • Lows next Saturday morning are forecast to be in the low 30s.
  • High temperatures Thursday through Saturday are forecast to be around 45-50 degrees.

Long-range forecasts call for milder temperatures to develop next Sunday and continue into the first half of the following week.

Just One Planet is Visible Now in the Evening Sky

The winter stars are ablaze in the night sky right now, but only one planet, Jupiter, is visible. Look for bright Jupiter in the southwestern sky shortly after sunset through early next week. Jupiter is sinking lower each day and by February 2nd, it will be lost in the sun’s glare.  All of the planetary action has shifted to the sky just before sunrise, where Venus and Mars are visible.  Jupiter will be joining the morning “crew” of planets in March.

Have a good weekend.

Bob

Previous Blog Entries

Little Rain So Far in January. This Looks to Change Next Week

Thursday, January 27, 2022 4:27 PM

The winter of 2021-2022 has so far been awfully dry. January has been especially dry, with several locations only seeing about a quarter inch of rain. The January pattern has featured several cold fronts, which have brought in quite a bit of cool air. But moisture return ahead of the fronts has been very limited, resulting in little to no rain.

Rainfall estimates based on Doppler radar and gauge data shows January totals of just a quarter to a half inch across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and totals of one half to one and a half inches across the middle Texas coast.

NWS Estimate of Rain Falling between January 1st and January 27th:

For most locations, January rain has been close to 2 inches below normal.

Some relief from the dry pattern is forecast next week when two separate weather systems move across the state. Each one is predicted to bring our  region showers and a few thunderstorms. The first system arriving Sunday night is expected to produce widespread rain Sunday night through Monday afternoon. Totals are forecast to range from under a half inch across the Hill Country, to the around 1.5 inches across the middle Texas coast.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 6 pm Thursday through 6 pm Tuesday:

A strong cold front is forecast to sweep south through the area next Wednesday night. Forecasts call for an area of rain showers and thunderstorms to accompany the cold front, with dry and much colder temperatures to follow late next week. Totals Wednesday night are forecast to average around a quarter inch or less.

Let’s hope the rains next week are just the start of a wetter pattern as we move toward spring.

Bob

A Generally Dry Pattern Expected this Week. Temperatures Staying Cool

Monday, January 24, 2022 2:41 PM

The week has started off a little wet as a trough of low pressure is driving an area of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms east across Central and East Texas. Unfortunately, with limited atmospheric dynamics in place, rain amounts have been very low. According to LCRA’s Hydromet, totals through 2 pm have generally averaged under two tenths of an inch across the region. A handful of gauges across the eastern Hill Country and the middle Texas coast have recorded quarter inch totals.

Today’s showers are forecast to end across the Hill Country by mid-afternoon. Across the Austin and Central Texas region, the showers should end by sunset. And across the coastal plains, the rain should end by late evening. While the clouds look to clear across the western Hill Country this afternoon, the sky across rest of the region is predicted to remain cloudy. High temperatures will include the low 60s across the western Hill Country, with low and mid-50s at most other locations.

A cloudy sky is forecast to continue Monday night. The combination of a wet ground and light winds is expected to cause the development of widespread fog for areas along and east of Interstate 35. In fact, some of the fog may be quite dense! Lows Tuesday morning will include the mid-30s across the Hill Country, the upper 30s to 40 degrees across Central Texas and the low to mid-40s across the coastal region.

Clouds and fog are forecast to continue Tuesday morning, burning off around midday. A mostly sunny sky should follow in the afternoon. A weak Canadian cold front is predicted to sink south across the area Tuesday afternoon, bringing slightly cooler air. Despite the front, high temperatures are forecast to generally be near 58-60 degrees. Lows Wednesday morning will range from the low-30s across the Hill Country, to the low 40s across the coastal plains.

Mostly sunny and dry weather is forecast for Wednesday through Thursday. High temperatures Wednesday will range from the upper 40s west, the mid-50s near the coast. Lows Thursday morning will include the upper 20s to low 30s across the Hill Country, the low and mid-30s across Central Texas, and the upper 30s to low 40s across the coastal plains. High temperatures Thursday will be in the upper 50s.

A slight chance for rain is predicted to develop late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening when a Canadian cold front sweeps south through the area. Rain amounts, if any, should total less than a tenth of an inch. Lows Friday morning will range from the low 30s west, to the around 40 degrees towards the coast.

Friday’s weather is shaping up to be mostly sunny, with high temperatures in the 50s.

A light freeze is forecast to occur across most of the region Friday night. Lows Saturday morning are predicted to be in the upper 20s across the Hill Country, the low 30s across Central Texas and the low to mid-30s across the coastal plains.

The outlook for the upcoming weekend calls for mostly sunny and a little warmer weather. High temperatures will be in the low 60s Saturday, warming to the mid and upper 60s Sunday. Lows Sunday morning will generally be around 40 degrees. Lows Monday morning are forecast to be in the low and mid-40s.

Looking ahead to next week, forecasts call for a slight chance for rain to develop Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday as a series of low pressure troughs move across Texas out of the Desert Southwest. Rain amounts are expected to remain around a quarter inch, or less. Sunny and dry weather is forecast next Thursday and Friday. Daily high temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s, with lows mostly in the 40s.

Have a good week.

Bob

Sunny and a Little Warmer this Weekend. Widespread Rain Expected Monday

Friday, January 21, 2022 1:22 PM

Our region’s recent brush with wintery precipitation has come to an end. While sleet pellets and light freezing rain were observed at several locations across the region, very dry air in the lower atmosphere precluded much of the precipitation from reaching the surface. As a result, travel impacts were minimal. The last of the precipitation exited the region and moved out over the Gulf of Mexico before sunrise Friday morning.

Sunny and dry weather will be in place this afternoon as a ridge of high pressure spreads over Texas out of Mexico. An area of clouds over the coastal region this morning will push offshore early this afternoon. Despite the sunshine, today’s temperatures will remain cold, with readings topping out only in the mid and upper 40s. Wind speeds will be considerably lighter than the past couple of days, generally ranging between 5 and 10 mph.

Very cold temperatures are forecast Friday night into Saturday morning. The combination of a clear sky and light winds will allow readings to fall steadily  after sunset. A freeze is expected across the entire region.

  • Lows Saturday morning will include the upper teens to low 20s across the Hill Country, the low and mid-20s across Central Texas and the upper 20s to 30 degrees across the coastal plains region.

A gradual warmup is forecast this weekend as the arctic air mass slowly pushes off to the east. The sky will be sunny Saturday. On Sunday, clouds are forecast to increase in advance of a trough of low pressure tracking into northern Mexico out of the Desert Southwest.

  • High temperatures Saturday are forecast to be in the low 50s.
  • Lows Sunday morning will range from about 30 degrees across the Hill Country, to the low and mid-30s across Central Texas, to the mid-30s near the coast.
  • High temperatures Sunday will generally be in the upper 50s.
  • Lows Monday morning will range from the upper 30s across the Hill Country, to the low and mid-40s at most other locations.

The trough of low pressure over northern Mexico is forecast to track to the east, moving across Central and North Texas Monday into Monday night. The trough is predicted to pull significant moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico beginning Sunday night. With the atmosphere moistening up, there will be a 40 percent chance for rain showers developing after midnight Sunday night. On Monday, widespread rain showers are forecast across the region as the trough moves overhead. Scattered thunderstorms will possible across the coastal plains region. The rain is predicted to end from west to east late Monday afternoon into Monday evening.

Rain amounts Sunday night through Monday evening will be highest across the coastal plains, and lowest across the Hill Country. Totals are forecast to average less than a quarter inch across the western Hill Country and between 0.25 and 0.5 inches across the eastern Hill Country. Across Central Texas, totals are predicted to average between 0.5 and 0.75 inches while coastal totals will average near 1-1.25 inches.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 6 pm Friday through 6 pm Thursday:

High temperatures Monday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 50s. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the low 40s.

Mostly sunny weather is forecast Tuesday. Expect a high temperature around 58-60 degrees. A strong, Canadian cold front is predicted to push south through our area sometime Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, bringing another blast of cold air. However, the magnitude of this next cold push doesn’t look quite as cold as the arctic air we’ve seen this week. No rain is expected with front. Sunny, breezy and cooler weather will follow next Wednesday and Thursday.

  • High temperatures Tuesday will be around 60 degrees.
  • Lows Wednesday and Thursday mornings will include the upper 20s Hill Country, the low and mid-30s Central Texas, and in the upper 30s towards the coast.
  • High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to be in the low 50s.

The outlook for next Friday into next weekend calls for sunny, dry and slightly warmer weather. Expect high temperatures in the low 60s, with lows in the 40s. Taking a peek into the first week of February, mild temperatures look to continue, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

 

Catch a Great View of Orion

Tonight look for the constellation Orion the Hunter. It’s a constant companion on winter evenings in the Northern Hemisphere. It’s probably the easiest constellation to spot thanks to its distinctive Belt. Orion’s Belt consists of three medium-bright stars in a short, straight row at the Hunter’s waistline. If you see any three equally bright stars in a row this evening, you’re probably looking at Orion. Orion is now high in the southeastern sky right after dark, standing highest due south around 9 pm.

Below Orion, look for the star Sirius, twinkling brightly after dinnertime. Sirius is the brightest star in the night sky.

Have a good weekend.

Bob

Occasional Wintery Precipitation Possible through Thursday Evening

Thursday, January 20, 2022 1:52 PM

An early afternoon update on the cold weather and the threat for wintery precipitation.

1 pm temperatures were in the mid and upper 20s across the Hill Country, in the mid and upper 30s across Central Texas and close to 40 degrees across the coastal plains region. The cold temperatures combined with a very strong wind is producing wind chill indices in the upper teens to mid-20s. There have been a few reports of light sleet and freezing rain through the morning hours over parts of the Hill Country, extending east to the Austin area/Interstate 35 corridor. However, precipitation amounts have been very light and the National Weather Service has not received any reports of road impacts as of this time.

Early this afternoon, Doppler radar was showing a large area of precipitation covering most of the Hill Country and parts of Central Texas. Interestingly, this  precipitation has been falling through a very dry layer in the lower atmosphere, causing most of the precipitation to evaporate before reaching the ground. The precipitation which has been able make it to the ground has been very light.  South of Interstate 10, radar has been showing a large area light rain spreading east across the coastal plains. Some of this precipitation has been making it to the surface in the form of a cold rain. So far, most totals have only been just a few hundredths of an inch.

This afternoon and evening, occasional light sleet, light snow flurries and freezing rain are forecast to continue across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions. Precipitation amounts are forecast to remain light—just a few hundredths of an inch and no significant travel issues are anticipated. Extra caution will need to be given when traveling on any elevated roadways, bridges, and overpasses where some of the light precipitation could stick and cause slippery conditions. Occasional light rain showers will likely continue across the coastal region. Little change in the temperature is expected this afternoon, with most readings holding fairly steady. A strong north wind at 15-25 mph, with gusts to 35 mph will continue.

The National Weather Service will be ending the Winter Weather Advisory for the Hill Country region at 6 pm Thursday evening. However, the advisory will continue for the Austin/Central Texas region until 6 am Friday morning.

The light wintery precipitation is forecast to diminish from west to east across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions this evening as an upper trough of low pressure exits the region. All of the precipitation should end by midnight. Across the coastal plains region, occasional light rain is forecast to continue through the evening and nighttime hours, and some of the precipitation may become mixed with a little sleet and freezing rain. The precipitation should taper off shortly after sunrise Friday morning. Little to no accumulations of frozen precipitation are expected. However, extra caution is urged when traveling on bridges and overpasses.

Clouds are forecast to decrease from west to east Friday morning, leading to a sunny sky across the entire region Friday afternoon. The sunny and dry weather looks to continue through the weekend as well.

  • High temperatures Friday will be in the mid and upper 40s.
  • Lows Friday and Saturday mornings are predicted to be in the upper teens to low 20s across the Hill Country, in the low and mid-20s across Central Texas, and in the upper 20s to low 30s across the coastal plains.
  • High temperatures Saturday are predicted to be in the low 50s, warming to the upper 50s on Sunday.
  • Lows Sunday morning will range from the upper 20s across the Hill Country, to the upper 30s near the coast.

Forecasts are pointing toward a fairly good chance for rain across our region Monday into Monday night. Totals are predicted to be less than a half inch across the Hill Country, near 0.5 to 0.75 inches across Central Texas and near 1-1.5 inches across the coastal plains. The temperature will be well above freezing, so all of the precipitation will be in the form of rain.

Bob

Light Wintery Precipitation Possible Thursday. Amounts Should Stay Low

Wednesday, January 19, 2022 1:44 PM

As of early Wednesday afternoon, the arctic cold front was located across North Texas, stretching from south of the DFW area, to near Abilene, to just south of Midland. Behind the front, readings were generally in the 30s across the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma. For Central and South Texas, it is going to be a sunny, breezy and warm afternoon, with temperatures peaking in the mid and upper 70s. Expect a southwesterly breeze at 10-15 mph, with occasional gusts to 25 mph. The cold front is predicted to reach the northern Hill Country around mid-afternoon, the Austin area about 6-7 pm and the coastal region around 10-11 pm.

No rain is predicted along the front when it moves across the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor. However, forecasts do indicate a few showers and scattered thunderstorms may develop along the cold front beginning around Fayette county and continuing southeast to the coast. Some of these thunderstorms could become severe. The Storm Prediction Center has placed Southeast Texas, including Colorado, Wharton and Matagorda counties under a Marginal Risk (a 1 out of 5 risk) for severe thunderstorms through 7 am Thursday. The primary severe weather threat is forecast to be damaging downburst winds. However, there will also be a low threat for an isolated tornado or two.

Cloudy, breezy and much colder temperatures can be expected overnight. In fact, the temperature is forecast to fall to or below freezing across the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 by sunrise Thursday. Lows Thursday morning will include the mid and upper 20s across the Hill Country, around 30 degrees along the I-35 corridor, in the low and mid-30s across Central Texas and near 40 degrees across the coastal plains region.

Forecasts continue to show a low to medium chance for the development of some light wintery precipitation across Hill Country and Central Texas regions Thursday through Thursday evening, and across the coastal region late Thursday night into Friday morning. High-resolution forecasts call for an area of light snow and sleet to develop across the Edwards Plateau region around sunrise Thursday, in advance of a trough of low pressure tracking east out of northern Mexico. Occasional light rain, light sleet and light freezing rain is predicted to develop and spread east through the Hill Country and into the I-35/Central Texas regions beginning mid to late morning. On-again/off-again, light wintery precipitation is forecast to continue across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions through the afternoon, with the precipitation ending from west to east early Thursday evening. I want to stress that forecast precipitation amounts for this event will be low—generally just a few hundredths of an inch. Minor ice and snow accumulations will be possible mainly on bridges, overpasses, and some elevated roadways. The ground itself will be too warm for any winter precipitation to stick. The National Weather Service has posted a Winter Weather Advisory for the Hill Country and Central Texas regions from 3 am Thursday through 6 am Friday.

Thursday is going to be a cold and windy day, with high temperatures only in the mid and upper 30s. Expect a north wind at 15-25 mph throughout the day, producing wind chill readings in the upper teens to low 20 degree range.

For the coastal region, expect cloudy and cold weather Thursday, with a high temperature in the low 40s. Occasional light rain is forecast to develop in the late afternoon and continue through the evening. The rain is forecast to become mixed with some sleet and freezing rain after midnight Thursday night, continuing till about mid-morning Friday. No frozen accumulations are forecast and precipitation amounts are forecast to be under a tenth of an inch. The precipitation should exit the area by Friday afternoon.

Prepare now for some very cold temperatures!

  • Lows Friday and Saturday mornings are forecast to reach the upper teens to low 20s across the Hill Country, the mid-20s across Central Texas and be near 30-32 degrees across the coastal plains.
  • High temperatures Friday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 40s.
  • High temperatures Saturday are forecast to be in the low 50s.
  • Lows Sunday morning will range from the upper 20s across the Hill Country, to the upper 30s near the coast.

I’ll pass along another update Thursday.

Bob

 

 

A Chance for Some Wintery Precipitation Thursday. Turning Much Colder Late Week

Tuesday, January 18, 2022 2:52 PM

A dry and stable weather pattern is currently in place across Central and South Texas. The cold air which spread into our area with considerable wind on Saturday is now moving off to the east. Southerly breezes have returned and this will lead to warmer temperatures this afternoon and Wednesday. Expect a mostly sunny sky this afternoon. Widespread clouds are forecast to develop across the coastal plains, Central Texas and eastern Hill Country regions late this evening as a weak area of moisture returns off the Gulf. Some patchy fog will be possible for areas near the Interstate 35 corridor early Wednesday morning. The clouds should give way to a mostly sunny sky Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will trend warmer both days, with readings reaching the mid-70s on both days. Lows Wednesday morning will range from the low 50s west, to around 60 degrees near the coast.

The warm readings will come to an abrupt end Wednesday evening and Wednesday night when an arctic cold front pushes south across the region. The front is forecast to reach the northern Hill Country about mid-afternoon Wednesday, the Austin area around sunset and the coastal region sometime in the late evening. No rain is forecast with the front when is moves across the Hill Country and Central Texas. However, there will be a slight chance for a few spotty rain showers and isolated thunderstorms over the area from La Grange, southeast to the coast. Behind the front, cloudy, windy and much colder weather can be expected Wednesday night and Thursday. Northerly winds are forecast to increase to 10-20 mph, with occasional gusts to 30 mph. Readings at or below freezing are forecast across the Hill Country and most of Central Texas by sunrise Thursday. Lows will include the mid and upper 20s across the Hill Country, the low 30s across Central Texas and be around 38-40 degrees across the coastal region.

The focus turns to Thursday when there will be a low to moderate potential for some wintery across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions. Forecasts call for an area of mid-level moisture to spread over the region Thursday morning in advance of a trough of low pressure that will be tracking east out of northern Mexico. As atmospheric lift spreads over the region with the trough, an area of light precipitation is forecast to develop. With surface temperatures early Thursday morning at or below freezing across the Hill Country and Central Texas, the precipitation may be in the form of light snow, light sleet, light rain, and/or light freezing rain. However, a mitigating factor to any significant precipitation will be quite a bit of dry air in the lower atmosphere. Little no accumulations are forecast. With the ground still quite warm, the main area of concern will be bridges and overpasses. Much of the precipitation is predicted to transition to mostly a light rain from late Thursday morning through late Thursday afternoon as temperatures warm to around 38-40 degrees, with mid-40s expected across the coastal plains.

Thursday evening, there will be a 30 percent chance for light rain, sleet and snow flurries across the eastern Hill Country and most of Central Texas as temperatures lower through the 30s. Significant wintery precipitation accumulations are not expected.  However, we will need to watch the bridges and overpasses. There will be a 30-40 percent chance for light rain across the coastal plains region Thursday evening and Thursday night. Rain amounts should average less than a quarter inch.

The precipitation is forecast to taper off across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Thursday evening as the upper trough exits to the east. The sky is forecast to become mostly sunny to partly cloudy beginning Friday morning. But do note the precipitation will be slower to clear the coastal plains region. Forecasts call for 30 percent chance for light rain, possibly mixed with a little sleet early Friday morning followed by a 20 percent chance for light rain Friday morning into Friday afternoon. Expect a mostly clear sky across the entire region Friday night.

Here is a look at projected temperatures for this period:

  • High temperatures Thursday are forecast to be near 38-40 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, with mid-40s expected towards the coast.
  • Lows Friday morning are predicted to be near 20-23 degrees across the Hill Country, in the mid and upper 20s across Central Texas and be around 30-32 degrees across the coastal plains.
  • High temperatures Friday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 40s.
  • Lows Saturday morning are predicted to be in the low 20s across the Hill Country, the mid and upper 20s across Central Texas and near 30-32 degrees across the coastal plains.

Mostly sunny to partly cloudy and dry weather is forecast Saturday through Sunday. High temperatures are predicted to be near 50 degrees Saturday, and in the low 50s Sunday. Lows Sunday morning will include the upper 20s Hill Country, the low and mid-30s Central Texas and the mid-30s across the coastal plains.

Looking ahead to next week, there will be a 30-40 percent chance for rain showers across the region Monday into Monday night when a small trough of low pressure tracks east out of northern Mexico. Totals are forecast to average around a quarter inch and less. High temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 50s. Mostly sunny and warmer weather will develop Tuesday, with highs in the 60s.

Another arctic cold front is forecast to push south across the region late Tuesday night, bringing a blast of colder air that looks to persist through late week.  High temperatures Wednesday through Friday are forecast to be in the 50s. Low temperatures Wednesday and Thursday mornings are forecast to be in the low and mid-30s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and be near 40 degrees towards the coast. Lows Friday morning are forecast to be around 40 degrees region-wide.

Have a good week.

Bob

Turning Cold and Windy this Weekend Followed by Another Strong Front on Wednesday

Friday, January 14, 2022 1:42 PM

Sunny and quiet weather is currently in place as we close out the workweek. Warm temperatures look to develop this afternoon as southwesterly breezes increase to a range of 10-15 mph. Readings are predicted to generally peak in the upper 70s. However, this period of mild weather will be short-lived.

Big changes in the weather will take place Friday night into Saturday when a strong cold front blasts through the region out of North Texas. The front is predicted to reach the northern Hill Country around 10 pm, the Austin area shortly after midnight and the middle Texas coast before sunrise Saturday. No rain is expected along the front when it moves across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions. However, a few spotty light rain showers will be possible across the coastal region.

The big story with the cold front will be the development of very strong and gusty winds beginning early Saturday morning and continuing through Saturday evening. The National Weather Service has posted a Wind Advisory for the entire region beginning at midnight tonight, continuing through 6 pm Saturday. Strong northwesterly winds of 20-30 mph, with gusts to 45 or 50 mph are forecast Friday night, continuing through late afternoon Saturday. Wind speeds are forecast to remain around 15-25 mph Saturday evening, then decrease to 10-15 mph after midnight Saturday night.

Do note fire weather conditions will deteriorate across all of the area late Friday evening through Saturday due to the combination of very strong winds, very dry air, and drought stressed fuels. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions can be expected through late Saturday afternoon across the entire region.

  • Saturday’s sky will be sunny and cool, with high temperatures ranging from the upper 40s north, to the mid-50s towards the coast.
  • A freeze is predicted for all locations Sunday morning. Lows will include low and mid-20s across the Hill Country, the upper 20s to 30 degrees across Central Texas and the low 30s across the coastal plains.

Sunny and dry weather is forecast Sunday through Tuesday as our region remains under the stable influence of a ridge of high pressure. Warmer readings can be expected Monday through Wednesday.

  • High temperatures Sunday are predicted to be in the upper 50s.
  • Lows Monday morning are forecast to be close to 30 degrees across the Hill Country, in the low and mid-30s across Central Texas and mid-30s across the coastal plains.
  • High temperatures Monday are predicted to be in the mid-60s.
  • Lows Tuesday morning will generally be in the upper 30s.
  • High temperatures Tuesday are forecast to be in the low 70s.
  • Lows Wednesday morning will range from the mid-40s west, to the mid-50s towards the coast.

The next big change in the weather is forecast to take place Wednesday when an arctic cold front is forecast to sweep south across the region, bringing a blast of colder air. These cold readings are forecast to persist across the region late next week into next weekend. Wednesday’s cold front will be dry, although a few spotty light showers may develop over areas south of Interstate 10 late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.

The forecast may get very interesting for parts of the region late Thursday into Friday. Some of Friday’s forecast solutions call for a weak trough of low pressure to develop over northern Mexico Thursday, with the feature tracking east across South Texas Thursday night through Friday. This system is expected to bring widespread clouds to the region Thursday and Friday. In addition, widespread light rain showers are forecast to develop as this feature tracks towards Texas. And depending on the magnitude of the cold air at the surface and in the lower atmosphere, there is a chance some of the rain could be change over to or become mixed with wintery precipitation. Confidence in this scenario taking place is currently low, but there is some chance. Forecasters will get a better handle on this situation over the next 2-3 days.

Cold temperatures will also be a big story late week into next weekend!

  • Low temperatures Thursday morning will range from the low 30s Hill Country, to the low 40s across Central Texas, to around 50 degrees near the coast.
  • High temperatures Thursday are forecast to be in the low and mid-50s
  • Lows Friday morning will be near 30 degrees across the Hill Country, in the low 30s across Central Texas and the mid to upper 30s near the coast.
  • High temperatures Friday are predicted to be in the low 50s
  • Low temperatures next Saturday are forecast to range from the upper 20s west, to the mid-30s near the coast.
  • High temperatures next weekend are forecast to remain in the 50s, with lows around 28-32 degrees west, with low and mid-30s Central Texas.

The outlook for the week of January 24th calls for dry and cool conditions, with highs in the low 60s and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Jupiter is the Now Only Naked-Eye Planet in the Evening Sky

For the past few weeks, the planets Jupiter, Saturn, Venus and Mercury have graced the evening sky. But recently, the show has gotten sparse. Venus has moved to the early dawn sky, while Saturn and Mercury are very low in the southwestern sky at twilight. Without binoculars, the two won’t be visible to the unaided eye. This leaves the planet Jupiter by itself, shining brightly in the southwestern sky at dusk. Jupiter is sinking lower in the sky and it too will shift to the morning sky in March.

Have a good weekend.

Bob

Dry Weather Pattern Causing Drought Conditions to Deteriorate

Thursday, January 13, 2022 4:05 PM

It’s been over two months since our region has seen a widespread, soaking rain event. Rainfall has been below normal across the region during November, December and so far in January. And for a large part of the Hill Country, the rain has been below normal dating back to September.

90-Day Rainfall Departure from Normal (Oct. 15 -Jan.12)

Data courtesy National Weather Service West Gulf River Forecast Center

A weak to moderate La Niña in place this fall and winter has been the primary feature responsible for this drier than-normal pattern. La Niña tends to keep the jet stream and storm track up to the north of Texas during the fall and winter months, leading to fewer rain storms and less than average rainfall.

The lack of rain over the past couple of months combined with above normal temperatures, and frequent windy days, has caused drought conditions to develop, expand and deteriorate across Central and South Texas. Thursday’s updated National Drought Monitor showed severe drought, the second of 4 possible drought classifications, for most of the Hill Country along with West and North Texas. Moderate drought, the first of four possible drought categories, was indicated for much of Southeast Texas, including Wharton, Matagorda and Colorado counites. Between these two areas of drought, “Abnormally Dry” conditions were indicated for Central Texas, including the Austin area. Abnormally Dry is not an actual drought category, and refers to areas where conditions are deteriorating and drought impacts are beginning to show up.

Statewide, 83 percent of the state is experiencing some form of drought, with nearly two thirds of the state now classified has being in severe or extreme drought.

In a Thursday monthly update, Climate Prediction Center forecasters called for La Niña conditions to continue into the early spring, with the La Nina dissipating and ENSO-neutral conditions developing sometime in the mid to late spring. With the La Niña in place, below-normal rainfall is predicted for the rest of January, February and March. However, the trend for below-normal rain is forecast to fade going into April and May.

Bob

Dry Weather Expected throughout the Week. Warmer Wednesday through Friday

Monday, January 10, 2022 2:00 PM

Scattered light rain showers moved across the eastern Hill Country and most of Central Texas Saturday. However, most rain totals were under a quarter of an inch. Heavier rains and scattered thunderstorms moved across the middle and upper Texas coast Saturday into Saturday night. Here, totals generally ranged between 0.25 and 1 inch. LCRA’s highest gauge total occurred at Lane City, in southeastern Wharton County, with a weekend total of 1.77 inches.

A Canadian cold front moved across the region Sunday, bringing a blast of cooler air that has continued into Monday. In the wake of Sunday’s cold front, Monday’s weather maps showed a large dome of Canadian high pressure covering the central and southern U.S. The high pressure dome is forecast to remain over our region through Tuesday, keeping temperatures somewhat cool. But the high is expected to shift Wednesday, and this will bring a return of warmer temperatures for the second half of the week.

For this afternoon and tonight, a partly to mostly cloudy sky will be in place as a large area of middle and high-level clouds spread across Texas out of northern Mexico. Afternoon temperatures are predicted to peak in the mid and upper 50s. Temperatures Monday night will likely be the coldest of the week, with lows Tuesday morning ranging from around 30-32 degrees across the Hill Country to the upper 30s across the coastal plains. Expect breezy northerly winds at 10-15 mph through late afternoon. Winds speeds should decrease to 5-10 mph this evening and overnight.

Tuesday’s weather will feature a cloudy to mostly cloudy sky. The eastern Hill Country, Central Texas and coastal regions may see some spotty light rain showers mainly in the afternoon and evening as a small trough of low pressure tracks to the east out of northern Mexico. Limited moisture will keep the probability for rain at 20 percent and totals should average only a few hundredths of an inch. Tuesday’s high temperature will range from the low 50s west, to the upper 50s near the coast. Lows Wednesday morning will be mostly in the upper 30s to mid-40s.

A stable ridge of high pressure setting up across northern Mexico and the Southwestern U.S. late week and through the weekend is expected to cause a  mostly sunny and dry weather pattern across Central and South Texas. Temperatures will trend warmer Wednesday through Friday with the return of southerly breezes. High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be in the mid-60s. Highs look to warm to the low 70s Thursday and the mid-70s Friday. Lows Thursday and Friday mornings will range from the low 40s west to the upper 40s towards the coast.

Forecasts call for a Canadian cold front to push through our area late Friday night into early Saturday morning. No rain is expected with the cold front. Mostly sunny and cooler weather is forecast behind the cold front Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures both days are predicted to be in the mid-50s. A light freeze will be possible across parts of the area Sunday morning. Lows Sunday will include the upper 20s Hill Country, the low and mid-30s Central Texas and the upper 30s coastal region. Lows Monday morning will range from the low 30s west, to the low 40s near the coast.

Looking out into next week, mostly sunny and dry weather is forecast Monday through Wednesday. Expect daily high temperatures in the 60s to around 70 degrees, with lows mostly in the 40s. Forecasts do call for a chance for rain developing next Thursday and Friday when a trough of low pressure tracks across Texas out of the Desert Southwest. No significant temperature change is forecast. Highs should remain in the 60s, with lows in the 40s.

Long-range forecasts call for a pattern that will feature cool temperatures over the next 2-3 weeks. However, there are no signs of an arctic outbreak through this period.

 

Opportunities to See the International Space Station this Week

There will be numerous opportunities to see the ISS fly over Central Texas this week. Tuesday and Wednesday, the ISS will be visible 1-2 hours before sunrise. Beginning Wednesday and continuing through the weekend, viewing opportunities will shift to the evening sky, about 1-2 hours after sunset. Next Sunday evening’s pass looks especially good, with the ISS forecast to pass nearly directly overhead of Central Texas.

You can find out ISS viewing information for your specific area through NASA’s Spot the Station website, https://spotthestation.nasa.gov

Have a good week.

Bob