Bob Rose on the weather - LCRA - Energy, Water, Community Bob Rose on the weather - LCRA - Energy, Water, Community


Forecast for Central Texas

Wednesday
Wed
55 °F / 37 °F
0%
Sunny. Much Cooler
Thursday
Thu
56 °F / 54 °F
0%
Partly Cloudy
Friday
Fri
75 °F / 62 °F
0%
Partly Cloudy
Saturday
Sat
68 °F / 52 °F
0%
Mostly Cloudy
Sunday
Sun
68 °F / 65 °F
0%
Mostly Cloudy
Updated November 30, 2022

Rainfall summary
Temperature summary
Humidity summary

Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

Monday, November 28, 2022 1:55 PM

Damp and cool conditions Thanksgiving Day and Friday gave way to a beautiful, sunny weekend. As we start off the new week, sunny and pleasant weather continues across Central and South Texas. Our region is currently under the influence of a very stable atmosphere in the wake of Friday night’s storm system. Sunny conditions will continue Monday afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the low and mid-70s. Expect a south breeze at 5-10 mph.

Southerly winds at the surface and in the lower atmosphere are forecast to increase this evening and overnight in advance of a trough of low pressure diving southeast out of the northern Rockies. Increasing moisture levels will cause the sky to become mostly cloudy to overcast by midnight. In addition, some patchy drizzle will be possible across Central Texas and parts of the Hill Country. Across the coastal plains, a few spotty light rain showers and drizzle are forecast after midnight. Interestingly, temperatures are expected to trend warmer overnight as a warm front lifts north from the coast. Temperatures will be in the 50s Monday evening, but are forecast to warm after midnight into the upper 50s across the Hill Country, into the low and mid-60s across Central Texas, and into the low 70s across the coastal plains.

Tuesday’s weather will start off cloudy with patchy drizzle. However, the sky is expected to become mostly sunny by afternoon as the moisture begins to move off to the east and northeast. Breezy and warm conditions are expected. High temperatures will range from the mid-70s across the Hill Country, to the low 80s across the coastal plains.  Southwesterly breezes will increase to 10-15 mph, with occasional gusts to 25 mph.

Breezy and noticeably cooler conditions are forecast to develop Tuesday night when a Canadian cold front associated with the approaching trough sweeps southeast through the area. The front is forecast to move across the Hill Country around midnight and push off the middle Texas coast before sunrise Wednesday. It now appears conditions will stay dry across our region as atmospheric conditions remain unfavorable for the development of rain and storms. However, rain and storms are forecast to develop further to the east across East Texas and Louisiana.

Breezy and much cooler conditions are forecast to develop behind the cold front late Tuesday night, continuing through Wednesday afternoon. Expect a northwesterly wind at 15-20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. Wind speeds should decrease late Wednesday afternoon. Lows Wednesday morning will range from the upper 30s across the Hill Country, to the low 40s across Central Texas, to the low 50s across the coastal plains. High temperatures Wednesday will generally be in the mid-50s.

Wednesday night looks to be the coldest night of the week. A light freeze will be possible across parts of the Hill Country and a few of the low-lying areas of Central Texas. Lows Thursday morning will include the low and mid-30s across the Hill Country, the mid and upper 30s across Central Texas, and the low 40s across the coastal plains.

Mostly sunny and cool conditions look to continue Thursday. Expect high temperatures in the low and mid-50s.

Milder temperatures will make a return Thursday night into Friday as southerly breezes return to the area. Expect a party to mostly cloudy sky across the region. Lows Friday morning will range from the mid-40s across the Hill Country, to the mid-50s towards the coast. High temperatures Friday are predicted to be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

For the upcoming weekend, forecasts call for a mostly cloudy to overcast sky Saturday and Sunday as Gulf moisture spreads inland off the Gulf ahead of a weak cold front sinking south across the Plains states. The front is forecast to stall across the Red River Valley Sunday. A couple of spotty light rain showers will be possible both days, but no significant rain is predicted. Temperatures will be mild, with highs forecast to be in the mid-70s, and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Looking ahead to next week, the focus of attention will be on a fairly strong cold front that is predicted to arrive sometime early Tuesday. Much cooler temperatures are forecast behind the front Tuesday through Friday, with highs falling to the 50s to low 60s, and lows dropping into the 40s. Forecasts call for a chance for rain along the cold front, with additional chances for rain continuing Wednesday through Friday as a weak overrunning pattern develops.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions remain very quiet across the tropical Atlantic as the 2022 hurricane season draws to a close. The season will officially come to an end Wednesday, November 30th.

A Surprisingly Wet Week Across Texas

A series of storm systems and cold fronts over the course of last brought several periods of rain. The rain culminated Friday night into Saturday morning when the main storm system moved across the state. Rain amounts over the past week have been significant, with totals of more than 5 inches recorded across parts of Wharton and Matagorda Counties. The northern Hill Country saw fairly widespread totals between 3 and 4 inches. Meanwhile, most of Central Texas saw totals of between 1 and 3 inches.

NWS Estimate of rain falling between Monday 11/21, and 9 am Monday, 11/28:


Courtesy: National Weather Service West Gulf River Forecast Center

Bob

Previous Blog Entries

A Wet and Possibly Stormy Thanksgiving, Followed by a Sunny and Mild Weekend

Wednesday, November 23, 2022 12:06 PM

The weather pattern is forecast to become active Thanksgiving Day into Friday as a large trough of low pressure slowly tracks east across North Texas. In advance of the approaching system, weather conditions are forecast to be fairly quiet this afternoon and evening. Expect the sky to remain mostly cloudy sky across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, but be mostly sunny along the middle Texas coast. There will be a slight chance for a few passing light rain showers, but no significant rain is expected. Temperatures will trend warmer, with readings reaching the mid and upper 50s, and getting close to 70 degrees near the coast.

Changes in the weather are predicted to begin taking place late Wednesday evening and Wednesday night when a moderate southerly flow brings considerable moisture north from the Gulf. Meanwhile, increasing atmospheric lift out ahead of the approaching trough is expected to cause the development of showers and scattered thunderstorms across the region—especially after midnight. The probability for rain will be 50 percent. Lows Thursday morning will generally be in the mid and upper 50s.

The trend for increasing rain and thunderstorm coverage will continue Thanksgiving Day as a cold front pushes east out of West Texas. Forecasts call for the cold front to move across the Hill Country early to mid-Thursday afternoon, reaching the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor in the late afternoon to early evening. The front is expected to spread across the middle Texas coast sometime around midnight Thursday night. Out ahead of the cold front, showers and scattered thunderstorms are predicted to spread across the area. Some of the storms may be strong to possibly severe—mainly for areas located to the east of Interstate 35. The Storm Prediction Center has placed all Southeast Texas, extending west to Bastrop, Flatonia, and Victoria under a Marginal Risk (a 1 out of 5 risk) for severe thunderstorms through Thursday night. The primary severe weather risk is expected to be damaging straight-line winds. There will be a smaller risk for large hail.

With abundant low-level moisture in place, locally heavy rain will be possible at times—mainly across the eastern Hill Country, all of Central Texas, and the middle Texas coast. Some of the heaviest rain looks to occur along the front as it moves through the area. The rain is forecast to taper off, at least temporarily, once the cold front pushes through.

Rain amounts between Wednesday evening and Thursday evening are forecast to generally average between a quarter and a half inch across the central Hill Country, be between 0.5 and 1 inch for the eastern Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and be around 1-1.25 inches across the coastal regions.

Although the cold front will be exiting to the south and east late Thursday, a chance for rain will return to the forecast after midnight Thursday night. Moisture wrapping around the slow-moving upper low over North Texas is predicted to spread across our area, leading to periods of light to occasionally moderate rain showers and even an isolated thunderstorm or two between midnight Thursday night and late Friday afternoon. Rain amounts up to a half inch are forecast. The rain is predicted to taper off from west to east late Friday afternoon into Friday evening as the upper low finally exits to the northeast.

Total rainfall between Wednesday morning and 6 am Saturday is forecast to range from less than a quarter inch across the western Hill Country, to around 1.5 to 2 inches across the middle Texas coast:

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 6 am Wednesday through 6 am Saturday:

Widespread precipitation, breezy north-northwesterly winds, and cloud cover will keep temperatures rather cool on Friday, with highs mostly in the low and mid-50s. Expect northwesterly winds of 10-15 mph, with gusts to 25 mph. Lows Saturday morning will include the mid-30s across the Hill Country, be around 38-40 degrees across Central Texas, and in low 40s near the coast.

Sunny, dry, and mild weather is forecast this weekend and early next week. High temperatures in the mid-60s Saturday, will warm close to 70 degrees Sunday.

The next chance for rain is forecast to occur sometime next Tuesday or Wednesday when a Pacific cols front moves through the area.

Wishing everyone a safe and happy Thanksgiving!

Remember to keep an eye on weather developments throughout Turkey Day.

 

Bob

Milder Temperatures Returning Tuesday, Continuing through the Holiday Weekend

Monday, November 21, 2022 1:57 PM

Cold and damp conditions held throughout the weekend, with the temperature never getting out of the 40s. Although rain and drizzle was in place for most of the time, rain amounts weren’t all that heavy. According to LCRA’s Hydromet, totals since Saturday morning have only been around a quarter inch across much of the Hill Country and the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor. Totals east of Interstate 35 were generally between a quarter and a half inch. The highest totals actually occurred near the coast, across Matagorda County, where amounts were just under an inch.

As we start off the new week, the cold and wet pattern continues. A trough of low pressure pushing east out of West Texas is causing widespread light rain from the eastern Hill Country, to the Texas/Louisiana border. High-resolution forecasts call light rain showers to continue this afternoon, with the rain tapering off from west to east late this afternoon and evening. Additional rain amounts are forecast to be quite low. With the rain and thick cloud cover in place, afternoon temperatures will be mostly in the mid and upper 40s. Clouds will continue across the area Monday evening and Monday night. In fact, some locations may see the development of patchy fog late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Lows Tuesday morning will include the mid and upper 30s across the Hill Country, readings around 40 degrees across Central Texas, and the mid-40s across the coastal plains.

Tuesday is expected to start off cloudy, with patchy fog. A partly to mostly cloudy sky is forecast to develop Tuesday afternoon. Some scattered sunshine should finally make an appearance! It will be a bit warmer, with highs in the mid and upper 50s. Clouds and even a few sprinkles of light rain are forecast Tuesday night through Wednesday as an area of moisture spreads inland from the Gulf. The probability for rain will only be 20 percent. A mostly cloudy sky looks to hold through the period. High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be in the low 60s. Lows Thursday morning are forecast to be in the low and mid-50s.

The outlook for Thanksgiving Day is still somewhat uncertain—even being just three days away. The various forecast solutions remain very divided in their handling of a trough of low pressure tracking east out of the Rockies. Once camp of solutions continues to be very progressive, calling for the trough to move across the southern Plains Thursday into Thursday night, with the trough then exiting off to the northeast. Under this scenario, our region would see a few rain showers throughout the day Thursday, with the rain ending by Thursday evening. Meanwhile the other camp of forecast solutions calls for the trough to dig south into northern Mexico on Thursday, then push east across central and south Texas Friday into Saturday. This scenario would likely bring our region widespread rain showers and scattered thunderstorms Thanksgiving Day and Friday.

At this point, I am leaning toward the more progressive solution, and calling for a chance for rain showers across the region Thanksgiving Day, with the rain exiting the area Thursday evening and Thursday night behind a Pacific cold front. The probability for rain will be around 40-50 percent, with rain amounts averaging around a quarter inch. On the chance the wetter solution is correct, expect a good chance for rain Thursday and Friday, with the rain tapering off Friday night. Under this wetter scenario, much of the region could see totals close to an inch.

High temperatures Thursday and Friday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 60s. Lows Friday and Saturday mornings are predicted to be in the low and mid-40s.

There is good agreement weekend weather conditions will be mostly sunny, dry, and mild. High temperatures in the upper 60s Saturday will warm into the low 70s Sunday. Lows Sunday and Monday mornings will be in the 40s.

The outlook for next week calls for generally dry weather with mild temperatures. We may see a slight chance for rain mid-week when a Pacific cold front moves through the area. Significant rain is not expected. Expect high temperatures in the low 70s Monday and Tuesday, with 60s Wednesday through Friday. Lows are predicted to generally be in the upper 40s to mid-50s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions are quiet across the tropical Atlantic as we near the end of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 5 days.

Mars is Back in the Evening Sky

In case you haven’t noticed, Mars in back the evening sky and it’s quite bright! The “red planet” now clears the east-northeast horizon around the end of twilight. It gains altitude until culminating nearly overhead around 1 or 2 am. There’s no missing it! Mars is now at magnitude -1.7, and outshines the star Sirius—the brightest star in the sky. You can’t miss Mars’s fiery yellow-orange color.

Bob

Cold and Damp Weather Expected this Weekend. Milder Temperatures are on the Horizon

Friday, November 18, 2022 1:10 PM

We’ve been experiencing a generally cloudy and unusually cool stretch of weather since last Friday, with the temperature staying below 60 degrees. The average temperature during this seven-day period has been 9 and 12 degrees below normal! This cold spell is going to be with us for a while yet, with the latest forecasts calling for the cool weather to persist into the middle of next week.

Cloudy and cool weather is in place across the region on this Friday. Widespread low clouds are spreading north from the Gulf in advance of another surge of cold air spreading south out of North Texas. At midday, the leading edge of the cooler air stretched from south of Dallas, to near Brownwood, and west to Fort Stockton. Forecasts call for the colder air to slowly sink south through the Hill Country this evening and overnight, reaching the Austin area before sunrise Saturday, and the coastal plains region by Saturday afternoon. Cloudy and cool weather will continue this afternoon, with high temperatures forecast in the upper 40s across the northern Hill Country, and into the mid and upper 50s at most other locations.

Scattered light rain showers are forecast to develop across the area Friday evening. This will be followed by a more widespread coverage of light rain showers after midnight as an overrunning pattern develops. Lows Saturday morning will include the mid and upper 30s across the Hill Country, the upper 30s to 40 degrees across Central Texas, and the mid-40s across the coastal plains.

Saturday’s weather will be cloudy, damp and chilly as the overrunning pattern continues. Widespread light rain is forecast across the entire region throughout the day, continuing into Saturday evening. Take note that parts of the western and northern Hill Country, between Junction/Rocksprings and Brady/Brownwood, could see a little sleet or freezing rain Saturday morning. No accumulations are forecast.  Total rain amounts are not predicted to be very heavy, with most amounts expected to be near or less than a quarter inch. Saturday is going to be a cold day, with little movement in the temperature. Afternoon readings will hold mostly in the low 40s, with mid-40 expected towards the coast.

The chance for rain is predicted to diminish across the region Saturday evening. Under a mostly cloudy sky, lows Sunday morning will include the mid and upper 30s across the Hill Country, be near 38-40 degrees across Central Texas, and in the low to mid-40s across the coastal plains.

Sunday’s weather will feature cloudy and damp conditions as a trough of low pressure begins to push into West Texas out of northern Mexico. Expect a mostly cloudy sky Sunday morning. But by Sunday afternoon, there will be a 30-40 percent chance for rain showers as moisture is drawn north from the Gulf. Sunday’s high temperature are forecast to generally be around 48-50 degrees.

Widespread light rain showers are forecast across the area Sunday night through Monday afternoon as the trough of low pressure slowly moves across Texas. The chance for rain should diminish Monday evening.  The rain is predicted to be heavier than what is forecast for Saturday. Totals between Sunday afternoon and Monday evening are forecast to generally average between 0.5 and 1 inch.  Lows Monday morning are forecast to be near 38-40 degrees. Highs Monday are predicted to be in the upper 40s.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 6 pm Monday through 6 pm Tuesday:

A partly to mostly cloudy sky is forecast Tuesday. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the low 40s. Highs on Tuesday are forecast to be in the upper 50s.

The forecast beyond Tuesday, including Thanksgiving Day, is somewhat complicated and a bit uncertain. The various forecast models solutions are struggling with the eventual path and timing of a trough of low pressure that will be tracking east from southern California mid-week. Some solutions take the trough north of our region, resulting in little to no rain across our area Thanksgiving Day. Meanwhile, other solutions call for the trough to take a path more directly across Texas, resulting in more widespread rain. I am leaning on the wetter solution, meaning a chance for rain showers late Wednesday through Thanksgiving Day. Friday and next weekend, the weather is looking generally dry. The National Weather Service is forecasting rain amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches across the area for Thanksgiving Day.

There is quite a bit more certainty in the temperature forecast for the second half of next week. Forecast solutions call for the cold pattern to weaken as a ridge of high pressure develops across the Rockies and the western, causing the cold air to moderate. High temperatures Thanksgiving Day, Friday and next weekend are forecast to be in the 60s, with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Tropical Weather Update

Weather conditions are quiet across the tropical Atlantic and there are no systems in place which pose a threat for tropical development for at least the next 5 days.

Have a good weekend.

Bob

Cool Temperatures and Dry Weather to Persist throughout the Week

Monday, November 14, 2022 4:03 PM

Winter seems to have arrived a little early this year. It was a nice, but cool fall weekend, with the first freeze of the season arriving for many folks. According to LCRA’s Hydromet, temperatures fell to or below freezing across most of the Hill Country and a large part of Central Texas Sunday morning. Readings across the coastal plains generally reached in the mid and upper 30s. LCRA’s lowest gauged temperature across the region was 24 degrees, at a gauge located near Burkett, in northeastern Coleman County. In Austin, the low temperature at Austin-Bergstrom was 29 degrees, and at Camp Mabry, the temperature reached 35 degrees.

Light rain showers developed across most of the region Monday morning as a trough of low pressure tracked east out of the southern Rockies, pulling moisture north from the Gulf. Rain amounts as of early Monday afternoon have been low, with most Hill Country and I-35 totals near or less than a tenth of an inch. The rain has been a little heavier from La Grange, southeast to the coast.

For the remainder of Monday afternoon, the rain is predicted to end across the Hill Country by mid-afternoon. Across Central Texas, the rain should end by late afternoon. Meanwhile across the coastal plains region, scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast through late afternoon. In fact, some of the thunderstorms could be strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has placed Southeast Texas, including Colorado, Wharton and Matagorda Counties, under a Marginal Risk, (a 1 out of 5 risk) for severe thunderstorms through Monday evening. The rain and thunderstorm should exit the area by early Monday evening. Rain amounts of 0.5 to 0.75 inches are forecast. Expect a mostly cloudy sky Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Lows overnight will range from the low and mid-30s across the Hill Country, the low 40s near the coast.

 

Mostly sunny, dry and cool weather is forecast Tuesday through Friday. Throughout the period, our region will remain under the influence of a deep trough of low pressure extending from northern Canada to the southern Plains states. Expect cool readings during the day and chilly temperatures at night.

  • High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will include the low 50s across the Hill Country, the mid-50s across Central Texas, and mid-to upper 50s towards the coast.
  • High temperatures Thursday will generally be around 58-60 degrees as southerly breezes return.
  • High temperatures Friday will generally be in the low and mid-50s.
  • Lows Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will include the low 30s across the Hill Country, the mid and upper 30s across Central Texas, with upper 30s to low 40s across the coastal plains.
  • Lows Thursday morning will range from the low 30s across the Hill Country, to the upper 30s near the coast.
  • Lows Friday morning will range from the mid-30s across the Hill Country, the low 40s across the coastal plains.

There will be a 40-50 percent chance for rain showers beginning Friday evening, continuing through Saturday afternoon as a trough of tracks southeast out of the southern Rockies and pushes east across the southern Plains. Low totals are forecast, with most rain amounts averaging less than a quarter inch. Clouds should clear late Saturday, followed by a mostly sunny sky on Sunday.

  • High temperatures Saturday are forecast to be in the upper 40s to low 50s, warming to the low and mid-50s Sunday.
  • Lows Sunday and Monday mornings will generally be in the upper 30 to low 40s.

Looking ahead to next week, mostly sunny conditions are forecast Monday and Tuesday. Expect high temperatures both days in the 50s, with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Thanksgiving Day may be a wet one. Forecasts call for rain showers to develop Tuesday night. Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day as a large trough of low pressure dives southeast out of the Rockies. The rain is forecast to push off to the east Thursday night, followed by dry and mild weather next Friday and next weekend. The temperature outlook calls for high temperatures in the 60s, with lows in the 40s to low 50s. Stay tuned for more details on the Thanksgiving Day forecast.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions across the tropical Atlantic are quiet, and tropical cyclone development is not forecast for at least the next five days.

Have a good week.

Bob

Turning Much Cooler. Rain Expected through Friday Evening, but Dry Over the Weekend

Friday, November 11, 2022 12:57 PM

…A strong cold front is currently pressing south across our region. It will be bringing rain and thunderstorms, much colder temperatures, and windy conditions. Hill Country locations need to prepare for a light freeze Friday night and Saturday night…

The much anticipated cold front is currently pushing south through the state, with a 15-20 degree temperature drop occurring right along the front. At noon, the front was passing through the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor. It is forecast to reach the La Grange/Columbus area around 3-4 pm, and the coastal plains region early Friday evening.

A large area of rain and thunderstorms is occurring along and behind the cold front. Just after sunrise Friday morning , rain and storms spread over the area between San Angelo and Killeen. Some of the storms over parts of northern Burnet, Lampasas, and Bell Counties became severe, producing large hail of 1 to 2 inches in diameter and very heavy rain. LCRA’s Hydromet is showing totals of 1-2 inches across most of McCulloch and San Saba Counties, with lowers totals to the west

Severe Weather Threat

Additional strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible along and just behind the cold front as it pushes southeast across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast this afternoon and evening. A warm, moist, and fairly unstable atmosphere along the frontal zone may fuel the development of additional strong to severe thunderstorms. The primary severe weather threat will be large hail up to 2 inches in diameter, and strong straight-line winds. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area southeast of a line stretching from northwest of San Antonio, to San Marcos, and Giddings under a Slight Risk (a 2 out of 5 risk) for severe thunderstorms through Friday evening. Areas north of the line have been placed under a Marginal Risk (a 1 out of 5 risk) for severe thunderstorms through Friday afternoon.  The threat for severe storms should decrease about 2-3 hours behind the passage of the cold front as colder, more stable air spreads into the area.

Rainfall

Widespread light to moderate rain showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to persist along and behind the cold front this afternoon and into tonight. High-resolution forecasts call for the rain to taper off across the Hill Country early this evening, across Central Texas late evening, and across the coastal plains region shortly after midnight. Forecasts call for rain amounts to be heaviest across the eastern Hill Country and Central Texas, where most totals will generally average between 0.5 and 1 inch. Isolated totals of 1-2 inches will be possible. Across the coastal plains region, totals are forecast to generally average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 6 am Friday through 6 am Saturday:

Temperatures

Get ready for the coldest air mass so far this autumn. Ahead of the cold front, readings are predicted to warm into the 70s to low 80s. Behind the front, temperatures will quickly fall into the 50s. Readings across the Hill Country are forecast to fall into the mid and upper 40s by late afternoon. Clouds are forecast to clear from northwest to southeast after midnight Friday night, leading to a mostly clear Saturday and Saturday night. Expect a partly cloudy sky on Sunday.

The nighttime temperature forecast for the Hill Country has trended a bit lower and a light freeze is now predicted for much of the Hill Country on both Friday night and Saturday night.

  • Lows Saturday morning are forecast to be in the low 30s across the Hill Country, in the upper 30s across Central Texas, and in the low and mid-40s across the coastal plains.
  • High temperatures Saturday will range from the mid-50s across the Hill Country, to the low 60s near the coast.
  • Low temperatures Sunday morning are forecast to be near 30-32 degrees across the Hill Country, in the mid-30s across Central Texas, and around 40-42 degrees across the coastal plains.
  • High temperatures Sunday are forecast to be in the mid-50s to low 60s.
  • Lows Monday morning are forecast to be in the mid-40s to around 50 degrees.

 

Wind

Expect strong northwesterly winds of 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph behind the cold front this afternoon, tonight and for much of Saturday. Wind speeds are predicted to decrease to around 5 mph Saturday night and Sunday.

Next Week

Light to moderate rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the region Monday into Monday evening as a passing trough of low pressure pulls clouds and moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in an overrunning cloudy and wet pattern. The threat for any severe storms appears low. Rain amounts are forecast to be around a quarter inch or less across the Hill Country, and between 0.25 and 0.5 inches for areas along and east of Interstate 35. High temperatures Monday are forecast to be in the mid-50s.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period  6 pm Sunday through 6 pm Monday:

A surge of cooler air will spread into the area Monday night and Tuesday in the wake of the trough of low pressure. Mostly sunny, dry, and cool weather is forecast Tuesday through Friday. Daily high temperatures are forecast to be in the low and mid-50s. Low temperatures will range from the mid-30s across the Hill Country, to the low 40s across the coastal plains.

Long-range forecasts indicate yet another surge of chilly air will push through our area next weekend that will keep temperatures below normal.

Have a good weekend!

 

Bob

Much Cool Weather Arriving Friday and Hanging on through the Weekend

Thursday, November 10, 2022 1:35 PM

A heads up for big changes in the weather that will be taking place Friday when a strong cold front punches through our area Friday morning into Friday afternoon.

Today will be the last really mild day we’re going to see for some time as changes in the position of the jet stream will bring colder/cooler temperatures to our region for at least the next couple of weeks. A  large trough of low pressure currently pushing east across the northern and central Rockies is going to help push a strong Canadian cold front through Texas Thursday night and Friday. Forecasts call for the cold front to move across the Hill Country region in the hours just before or just after sunrise Friday. The front is predicted to move across the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor mid-morning and the coastal plains region in the early afternoon.

Widespread light to moderate rain showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and behind the cold front as good atmospheric lift spreads over our area. High-resolution forecasts indicate atmospheric conditions will be marginally favorable for the development of a few strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. The primary severe weather threat will be large hail. The Strom Prediction Center has placed the Austin/Central Texas region, the middle Texas coast, and most of the Hill Country under a Marginal Risk (a 1 out of 5 risk) for severe thunderstorms on Friday.

The rain is predicted to taper off from west to east across the region Friday afternoon. The rain should end across the coastal region early Friday evening.

Rain amounts Friday are forecast to generally average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches, with isolated totals of 0.5 to 1 inch possible—especially across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 6 pm Thursday through 6 pm Saturday:

Much cooler temperatures will follow the cold front Friday morning through Friday afternoon. By Friday afternoon, readings are forecast to fall into the 40s across the Hill Country, into the low and mid-50s across Central Texas, and into the 70s and 60s across the coastal plains. Expect a strong north wind at 10-20 mph Friday and Friday night. Wind speeds should decrease to 10-15 mph Saturday. Sunny weather is predicted for Saturday and Sunday.

Do note the temperature could dip close to freezing across parts of the Hill Country late Friday night and Saturday night.

  • Lows Saturday morning will include the low and mid-30s across the Hill Country, the upper 30s to 40 degrees across Central Texas, and the low to mod-40s towards the coast.
  • High temperatures Saturday and Sunday will generally be around 58-60 degrees
  • Lows Sunday morning will include the low and mid-30s across the Hill Country, the mid and upper 30s across Central Texas, and the low to mid-40s across the coastal plains.
  • Lows Monday morning are forecast to be mid-40s to low 50s.

I’ll pass along another weather update Friday.

Bob

Quite Mild through Thursday. Much Colder Readings Expected Friday and this Weekend

Monday, November 7, 2022 4:18 PM

Very mild temperatures will be in place today through Thursday before much cooler air arrives Friday that will likely persist through the weekend.

Warm, moist air is spreading north from the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in very humid conditions across the region. This very moist air, combined with a weak passing disturbance, caused the development of scattered rain showers and even a couple of isolated thunderstorms across the region Monday morning into Monday afternoon. Additional spotty showers look to continue across the northern counties of Central Texas and the Hill Country through late afternoon. Elsewhere, partly cloudy and warm conditions are forecast. Monday’s temperature is forecast to peak in the low and mid-80s.

The sky will be partly to mostly cloudy Monday night. Lows Tuesday morning will generally be in the mid and upper 60s.

Tuesday through Thursday, we’ll see a pattern of nighttime and early morning clouds, followed by a most sunny to partly cloudy sky in the afternoon. Humid conditions will continue. Daily high temperatures are forecast to be in the low and mid-80s, with lows in the low and mid-60s.

A big change in the weather will take place Friday morning into Friday afternoon when a strong cold front pushes southeast through our area. This front will be driven south by a large trough of low pressure moving east out of the Rockies. The front is predicted to reach the northern Hill Country just before sunrise Friday, the Interstate 35 corridor sometime mid to late Friday morning, and the coastal plains region Friday afternoon. The chance for rain along the cold front appears low due to weak convergence and limited moisture. But the trough and front will be tapping into some chilly air located across western Canada. Expect much cooler temperatures Friday and through the weekend.

  • High temperatures Friday will include the mid and upper 60s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and the mid-70s across the coastal plains.
  • Lows Saturday morning are forecast to be in the low 40s across the Hill Country, the mid-40s across Central Texas, and around 50 degrees across the coastal region.

Saturday’s weather is shaping up to be mostly cloudy and cool. Some patchy light rain or sprinkles will possible Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon as a weak disturbance passes over the region. Rain amounts are predicted to total under a tenth of an inch. Expect a partly cloudy sky Saturday night through Sunday.

  • High temperatures Saturday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 50s.
  • Lows Sunday will include the mid and upper 30s across the Hill Country, the low 40s across Central Texas, and the mid-40s towards the coast.
  • High temperatures Sunday are forecast to be around 58-60 degrees.
  • Lows Monday morning will include the low 40s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, with mid-40s across the coastal zone.

The outlook for next week calls for a partly cloudy sky and slightly warmer conditions next Monday through Wednesday. Expect high temperatures in low to mid-60s, with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.

The next change in the weather will occur on Thursday when another strong cold front blows through the area. There will be a slight chance for rain along the front, followed by cooler temperatures late next week into the following weekend.

Tropical Weather Update

A strong disturbance located over the southwestern Atlantic has strengthened into Subtropical Storm Nicole.

As of 4 pm CST, the center of Subtropical Storm Nicole was roughly 435 miles east-northeast of the northwestern Bahamas. The storm was moving toward the northwest near 9 mph. A slower northwestward motion is expected tonight. A turn toward the west or west-southwest is forecast to begin by Tuesday night and that motion should continue through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas on Tuesday and Tuesday night, move near or over those islands on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of Florida Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds were near 45 mph with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast tonight or Tuesday, with a faster rate of strengthening expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. Nicole is forecast to be at or near hurricane intensity by Wednesday or Wednesday night while it is moving near or over the northwestern Bahamas.


NOAA/University of Colorado/RAMMB 11/07/22 11:30 am CST

Total Eclipse of the Moon Monday Night

Earth’s shadow is about to engulf the Moon. Early Tuesday morning, there’s going to be a total lunar eclipse visible across much of North America and the entire Pacific Ocean.

Partial eclipse begins at 3:09 am CST  Tuesday morning. Total eclipse will begin at 4:16 am CST; mid-eclipse is at 4:59 am CST; total eclipse ends 5:42 AM CST; partial eclipse ends 6:49 am CST. The first and last penumbral shading on the Moon may be detectable for 30 or 40 minutes before and after the partial stages — if the Moon is up at your location and the sky is not too bright. Watch for the moon to turn a blood-red color.

Bob

 

Monitoring a Severe Weather Threat Friday Afternoon and Evening. Pleasant Weekend to Follow

Friday, November 4, 2022 1:12 PM

…There will be a threat for severe weather Friday afternoon and Friday evening, mainly for areas along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor and north of Interstate 10. The Austin metro area is included in this threat area. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few isolated tornadoes will all be possible…

The weather is expected to become active across our region Friday afternoon and evening when a trough of low pressure tracks from the southern Rockies to the southern Plains, forcing the dry line and a Pacific cold front to push southeast out of West Texas. In advance of these systems, warm air and considerable moisture has spread inland off the Gulf of Mexico, causing the atmosphere to become unstable. A stable layer of air in the middle atmosphere is forecast to erode around mid-afternoon, and this will allow for the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the eastern Hill Country and much of Central Texas through late afternoon. Any thunderstorm which happens to develop in this area will have the potential to become strong or severe—producing large hail, damaging winds, and large hail.

There will be a better chance for strong to severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening when the Pacific cold front pushes east out of the Hill Country. As of noon, the front was situated across West Texas, stretching from Abilene, to San Angelo, to near Sonora. The front is forecast to track east across the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country region this afternoon, reaching the Interstate corridor sometime between 6 and 8 pm. The front is forecast to move across the coastal counties sometime between 10 pm and 1 am.

Friday morning’s high-resolution forecast data calls for scattered thunderstorms to develop along the front around the time the cold front reaches the eastern Hill Country. Some of these storms may quickly become severe. The scattered thunderstorms are predicted to consolidate into a line of thunderstorms by the time the front reaches I-35. The line of storms is then forecast to move southeast, reaching the La Grange/Columbus area around 9-10 pm and the middle Texas coast around 1 am.

Isolated tornadoes, large hail and damaging thunderstorm winds will be possible from the thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center is now indicating the highest risk for severe storms will be over Northeast Texas, with a somewhat lower threat for severe storms across Central Texas. Nevertheless, across our part of the state, the Storm Prediction Center has placed the eastern Hill Country, all of Central Texas, and the middle Texas coast under a Slight Risk, or a 2 out of 5 risk, for severe thunderstorms through Friday night. It is likely that severe thunderstorm and/or tornado watches could be needed for parts of our area by the late afternoon and evening hours.

The area of rain and storms should exit the Hill Country by early evening, the Austin and Central Texas region by late evening, and the coastal plains  region shortly after midnight.

Significant rain is not expected from the storms Friday afternoon and evening. The latest forecasts have trended drier, with 24-hour totals now predicted to be less than a quarter inch across the Hill Country, and between a quarter and a half inch for areas along and east of Interstate 35.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 am Friday through 7 am Saturday:

Mostly sunny and dry weather will be in place this weekend. We’ll see a small cool down Saturday and Saturday night, followed by warmer temperatures Sunday. Highs Saturday are predicted to be in the mid and upper 70s. Lows Sunday morning are forecast to range from the upper 40s west, to the upper 50s near the coast. Highs Sunday are forecast to be in the low 80s.

Friday’s cold front is forecast to return back to the north Sunday night into Monday, allowing considerable moisture to spread north from the Gulf. Forecasts call for a few scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region Monday morning and afternoon. Rain amounts should average around a tenth of an inch at most locations. Expect a partly to mostly cloudy sky with a high temperature in the low 80s.

Mostly sunny, dry and warm weather is forecast Tuesday through Thursday. Expect highs in the low 80s and lows in the 60s.

A cold front is predicted to move across our area next Friday. We may see a few showers along the front, but rain amounts are forecast to average less than a quarter inch. Sunny, dry, and cooler weather will follow the cold front next weekend into the following week. Expect highs to fall to the upper 60s, with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

The National Hurricane Center is following the progress of Tropical Depression Lisa located over the Bay of Campeche, and two areas of disturbed weather across the western Atlantic.

As of 10 am CDT, the center of Tropical Depression Lisa was located over the Bay of Campeche, about 185 miles west of Ciudad Del Carmen, Mexico. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph. A gradual turn toward the north at a slower forward speed is expected by Saturday morning. Lisa or its remnants are then forecast to stall and move very little through the remainder of the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible today. Lisa is forecast to begin weakening by Saturday morning and will likely become a post-tropical remnant low by Saturday night.

Across the southwestern Atlantic, a large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop across the northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic during the next day or two. The system is initially expected be very broad and disorganized, but it could begin to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics by the end of the weekend. Environmental conditions could support additional gradual development early next week and a subtropical or tropical depression could form while the disturbance moves generally northwestward or westward over the southwestern Atlantic. NHC forecasters are giving this system a 40 percent chance for tropical development over the next 5 days.

A weak non-tropical area of low pressure located several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms, mostly well to the east of its center.  Any tropical or subtropical development of this disturbance should be slow to occur during the next day or so while it moves little through today and then turns westward over the weekend. The system is forecast to interact with a larger low pressure area developing to its southwest and will encounter stronger upper level winds on Saturday, so further development is not anticipated beyond that time. NHC forecasters are giving this system just a 10 percent chance for development over the next 5 days.

Time Change Weekend

Daylight Saving Time will come to an end this coming Sunday, November 6th, at 2:00 am. At that time, we will “fall back”, turning our clocks back one hour. Going forward, the evenings will get dark much sooner, but it will get light earlier in the mornings.

Have a good weekend!

Bob

The Chance for Severe Storms Increases for Friday

Thursday, November 3, 2022 4:33 PM

All eyes are currently on a large trough of low pressure across the western U.S. that stretches from central Montana to southern Nevada. The trough is forecast to track to the east tonight and Friday, then lift northeast to the Middle Mississippi Valley on Saturday. The trough will help push a Pacific cold front across Texas Friday into Friday, with strong to severe thunderstorms expected to develop along the cold front by the time it reaches the eastern Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor. A threat for severe storms will continue along the cold front as it pushes southeast to the coast Friday night. Forecasts put the cold front into the western Hill Country around noon Friday, across the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor between 6 and 8 pm Friday evening, and the coastal plains region around 11pm-midnight.

The latest high-resolution forecast data indicates there will be a potential for the development of isolated severe thunderstorms across the eastern Hill Country and much of Central Texas Friday afternoon in advance of the approaching cold front. Showers and thunderstorms are predicted to develop and increase in areal coverage along the cold front around mid-afternoon, roughly when the cold front reaches close to Highway 83 across the Hill Country. The rain and thunderstorms are then predicted to transition into a large, discrete line that will parallel the cold front as it pushes to the southeast. The chance for rain is predicted to end across the Hill Country by early Friday evening. The rain and storms are predicted to move out of Central Texas by late evening, and the coastal counties shortly after midnight.

The primary severe weather threat from the storms on Friday is expected to be damaging straight-line winds. However, the atmospheric setup will also somewhat favorable for the development of isolated tornadoes and large hail. As of now, it appears the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor will see the greatest risk for tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area along and east of line stretching from Gatesville, to Austin, to La Grange, and Brenham in an Enhanced Risk (a 3 out of 5 risk) for severe thunderstorms Friday. The eastern Hill Country and the coastal plains region are under a Slight Risk (a 2 out of 5 risk) for severe thunderstorms through Friday night.

Generally speaking, the threat for significant rain across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Friday through Friday night appears minimal. Here totals are predicted to be around a quarter to a half inch, or less.  Heavier rain is forecast for locations east and southeast of Austin, where the areal coverage of storms along the cold front is expected to expand. Totals of 0.50-0.75 inches are forecast.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Thursday through 7 pm Saturday:

I’ll pass along another update on the weather Friday morning.

Bob