Forecast for Central Texas
Reports from LCRA’s HydrometRainfall summary
Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather
A Quiet Week of Weather Ahead. Mild Temperatures Can be Expected
Sunny and quiet weather is in place across the region as we start off the new week. Monday morning started off chilly, with low temperatures in the 30s and 40s. According to LCRA’s Hydromet, lows were a mixture of low to upper 30s across the Hill Country, mid to upper 30s across Central Texas and low to mid-40s across the coastal plains. The lowest recorded temperature was 28 degrees. This reading was observed at gauges located in southeastern Llano County, near and just north of Lake Brownwood and also between Junction and Menard. In Austin, the low temperature at Camp Mabry was 45 degrees and the low at Austin-Bergstrom Airport was 36 degrees.
Monday’s weather maps showed a broad, stable ridge of high pressure spreading over Texas out of the Southwestern U.S. This feature is forecast to remain over Texas through late week, causing more dry and stable weather. At the surface, a dome of Canadian high pressure currently covers Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley. The high is predicted to slide off to the east late this afternoon and tonight, bringing a return of southerly breezes and warmer temperatures. Relative humidity levels are forecast to increase mid to late week as moisture spreads inland from the Gulf.
For this afternoon and tonight, expect a clear sky. This afternoon’s temperature is forecast to warm to the low 70s. Lows Tuesday morning will generally be in the low and mid-40s. Expect a light south and southwesterly breeze at 5-10 mph. Do note some fog will be possible across the coastal plains region toward daybreak Tuesday.
For Tuesday through Friday, dry, quiet and warmer weather is forecast. A weak wave of low pressure passing north of our region late Tuesday is expected to bring widespread mid and high-level clouds. Otherwise, expect a pattern of mostly sunny afternoons and a cloudy sky overnight. Areas of fog are forecast across the coastal plains and parts of Central Texas Wednesday and Thursday mornings. High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the mid-70s, warming to the upper 70s Thursday and to near 78-80 degrees Friday. Lows Wednesday morning will generally be in the upper 40s to low 50s. Lows Thursday and Friday mornings will range from around 50-52 degrees across the Hill Country, to near 58-60 degrees near the coast.
The weather pattern is forecast to trend a bit more unsettled this weekend when the ridge over Texas weakens and a wave of low pressure slides southeast out of the southern Rockies. There is still some uncertainty amongst the various forecast solutions regarding the timing of this wave of low pressure. However, ensemble solutions call for the wave to move across Texas Saturday into Saturday night, exiting to the east on Sunday. Based on this timing, I expect a slight chance for light showers to develop Friday night, followed by a 30-40 percent chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night. The chance for rain should diminish from west to east Sunday morning as the wave exits to the east. Weekend temperatures will be mild, with highs in the low 70s and lows in the 50s.
Rain amounts are not expected to be very heavy—generally around a tenth of an inch across the Hill Country, and around a quarter inch across Central Texas, and between a quarter and a half inch across the middle Texas coast.
NWS Rainfall Outlook for the Period 6 pm Monday through 6 pm Next Monday:
The outlook for next week calls for partly cloudy, dry and mild weather next Monday and Tuesday. Expect highs in the low and mid-70s, with lows in the 50s. A weak cold front is predicted to move across the area next Wednesday, causing a slight chance for showers. Dry and slightly cooler air will follow next Thursday and Friday, with highs around 70 degrees and lows around 48-50 degrees.
No unusually cold, or freezing temperatures are on the horizon for at least the next two weeks.
Tropical Weather Outlook
Weather conditions are quiet across the tropical Atlantic and tropical cyclone formation is not expected. The 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season will officially come to a close Tuesday.
An Update on Venus, Jupiter and Saturn
The planet Venus is shing at a dazzling magnitude –4.9! Look for it in the southwestern sky during and after twilight. Venus has reached its greatest height and greatest brilliancy for this fall.
The planets Jupiter and Saturn, shine in the south to southwest during evening, far to the upper left of Venus. Jupiter is the bright one at magnitude –2.3. Saturn, 16° to Jupiter’s lower right, is at magnitude +0.7, only 1/16 as bright. Saturn sets around 9 p.m. Jupiter sets a little more than an hour later.
Have a good week.
Rain Expected Thanksgiving Day and Again on Saturday. Temperatures Trending Cooler
Forecasters are still anticipating quite a few changes in the weather beginning Thanksgiving, continuing through the upcoming weekend.
Wednesday’s weather maps showed a large trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere sinking southeast out of the central Rockies. In advance of the trough, considerable middle and high-level clouds are spreading into Texas out of the eastern Pacific. In addition, lower-level clouds are spreading north from the Gulf. Altogether, today’s sky is expected to be partly to mostly cloudy. No rain is forecast but conditions will be quite breezy. Expect southerly winds at 10-20 mph, with occasional gusts to 30 mph. Afternoon temperatures are predicted to warm into the mid and upper 70s.
Drizzle, scattered rain showers and even an isolated thunderstorm or two is forecast to develop across the region late this evening, continuing overnight as the atmosphere becomes increasingly moist and unstable.
A Canadian cold front associated with the upper trough is forecast to track southeast across the region late Wednesday night through Thursday morning. The front is predicted to reach the northern Hill Country a couple of hours before daybreak Thursday, the I-35 corridor around 8 or 9 am, the La Grange area in the late morning and the coast in the early afternoon.
Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms are predicted across the Hill Country as the front moves through the area. The rain should end here by about mid-morning. Rain amounts are forecast to generally average around a quarter inch or less.
A more widespread coverage of rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast over the area from the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor, southeast to the coast. Here, some of the rain may become locally heavy. The rain is forecast to taper off across Central Texas by about midday and the coastal region by late afternoon. Rain amounts are forecast to generally average around 1-1.25 inches, with isolated totals to around 2 inches possible.
NWS Rainfall Forecast to the Period 6 am Wednesday through 6 am Friday:
The sky is forecast to become mostly sunny across the Hill Country Thursday morning, while mostly sunny conditions should develop across the Austin/Central Texas region by early afternoon. Thanksgiving Day weather will be breezy and noticeably cooler! Expect northerly winds at 15-25 mph, with gusts to 35 mph. Afternoon temperatures will only warm to around 60-62 degrees.
Expect a mostly clear sky and cold temperatures Thursday night. Freezing temperatures will be possible across many of the low valleys throughout the Hill Country. Lows Friday morning will include the mid-30s across the Hill Country, the upper 30s to around 40 degrees across Central Texas, with low and mid-40s across the coastal plains.
Friday’s weather will include a partly to mostly cloudy sky as high-level clouds spread east out of Mexico. Temperatures will be cool, with highs near 58-60 degrees. Expect light northeasterly winds. Lows Saturday morning will generally be in the low 40s.
The outlook for Saturday calls for a mostly cloudy to overcast sky as a large area of mid-level clouds spreads into Texas ahead of a weak area of low pressure moving northeast out of northern Mexico. There will be a 30-40 percent chance for light rain showers across the entire region Saturday afternoon, continuing through Saturday night. The chance for rain should taper off from west to east late Saturday night as the trough exits the region. Rain amounts through the period are forecast to average around a tenth of an inch across the Hill Country, be close to a quarter inch across Central Texas and total up to a half inch across the coastal plains. Highs Saturday will be near 58-62 degrees. Lows Sunday morning will range from the mid-40s west, to the low 50s near the coast.
Sunday’s weather is shaping up to be mostly sunny and slightly warmer, with highs in the mid-60s.
The outlook for next week calls for mostly sunny weather Monday and Tuesday. Highs will be in the 60s, with lows in the 40s. We will likely see another chance for light rain developing sometime late next week when another trough of low pressure lifts north from Baja, California. No significant change in the temperature is forecast mid to late week.
Have a safe and happy Thanksgiving!
Widespread Rain Expected Thanksgiving Day. Generally Dry and Cool Friday into the Weekend
Quiet and very fall-like weather is in place as we start off the new week. Sunday’s cold front brought in another push of cool, dry air to Central and South Texas. Monday’s temperature started off a little chilly, with 30s and 40s across the Hill Country and low to mid-50s across the rest of the region. According to LCRA’s Hydromet, 3 gauges near and west of Lake Brownwood recorded minimum temperatures at or just below freezing.
Monday’s weather maps showed a large dome of Canadian high pressure stretching from the northern Plains states to southern Texas. Cool air is spreading south into Texas with the high pressure system. This afternoon’s weather will feature a mostly sunny sky, light winds and fall-like temperatures. Highs will be in the mid-60s across the Hill Country and near 68-70 degrees at most other locations.
Expect chilly readings Monday night, but no freezing temperatures are expected as a considerable high-level clouds spread over the area. Lows will include the mid and upper 30s across the Hill Country, the low 40s across Central Texas and the low to mid-40s across the coastal plains.
Tuesday’s weather will be mostly sunny and a little warmer as the dome of high pressure shifts east, bringing a return of southerly breezes. Expect winds to pick up to 10-15 mph in the afternoon. The high temperature will generally be near 70-72 degrees. Lows clouds will increase and the sky should become cloudy Tuesday night. Lows Wednesday morning will be in the low and mid-50s.
Changes in the weather will begin to take place Wednesday when a large trough of low pressure drops southeast out of the northern Rockies. A piece of the trough is forecast to break off and sink southwest to a position over northern Baja, California through late week. More on this feature coming up. The main trough is forecast to track east-southeast across the Plains states Wednesday into Thursday, forcing a Canadian cold front south into Texas. The front is forecast to reach Northwest Texas late Wednesday evening, tracking southeast into the northern Hill Country late Wednesday night. The front is predicted to push through the Austin area near or just after sunrise Thursday, reaching the coastal plains region in the early afternoon. Conditions appear favorable for a widespread area of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms to develop along and just behind the front. The threat for severe storms appears to be quite low.
In advance of the cold front, Wednesday’s weather is shaping up to be mostly cloudy, breezy and warm as moisture streams north from the Gulf. Expect a southerly breezy at 10-20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. High temperatures will be in the mid and upper 70s. Cloudy and breezy conditions look to continue Wednesday night. Occasional light showers are forecast to develop across Central Texas and the coastal region as the atmosphere becomes increasingly moist and unstable.
Attention will turn to the northern Hill Country Wednesday night when a large area of rain and thunderstorms spreads southeast with the cold front. The rain and storms are predicted to spread southeast across the Hill Country Wednesday night, reaching the Austin and Interstate 35 corridor around daybreak Thursday. The rain and storms are forecast to continue spreading southeast across Central Texas Thursday morning and the coastal region Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile, the rain is expected to taper off across the Hill Country and the Intestate 35 corridor Thursday morning, Central Texas Thursday afternoon and the coastal region Thursday evening.
Rain amounts Wednesday night through Thursday are expected to be heaviest for areas east of Interstate 35, where totals of 1-1.5 inches are forecast. To the west of I-35, totals of 0.25-0.5 inches are forecast.
NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 6 pm Monday through 6 pm Saturday:
Thanksgiving Day temperatures will be noticeably cooler, with highs only in the low 60s across the Hill Country and most of Central Texas. Across the coastal plains, temperatures should reach the low 70s ahead of the front.
Lows Friday morning are predicted to be in the mid-30s across the Hill Country, be around 38-40 degrees across Central Texas and in the mid to upper 40s across the coastal plains.
Sunny and cool weather is forecast across the region Friday through Sunday. High temperatures will be around 58-62 degrees Friday, warming to the mid-60s Saturday, and the upper 60s on Sunday. Lows Saturday and Sunday mornings will be in the low and mid-40s, with upper 40s to 50 degrees near the coast.
Looking ahead to next week, a partly cloudy sky and mild temperatures is predicted for Monday and Tuesday. Expect a high temperature near 70 degrees, with a low temperature in the 50s. Forecasts call for a chance for rain to develop next Wednesday and Thursday when the stalled area of low pressure over northern Baja finally lifts northeast and moves across Texas. As of now, it appears rain amounts should average between a quarter and a half inch. No significant change in the temperature is forecast. Highs should continue around 70 degrees, with lows in the 50s.
There are no signs of any unusually cold air sinking south into Texas through the first week of December.
Tropical Weather Outlook
There will be no tropical concerns in the Pacific or Atlantic Oceans over the next 5-10 days.
I hope everyone has a safe and enjoyable Thanksgiving holiday!
Sunny Weather Expected through Tuesday. A Wet and Cool Pattern Expected for Turkey Day
Friday started off rather chilly across the region, with minimum temperatures in the 30s and 40s. According to LCRA’s Hydromet, low temperatures Friday morning included the mid and upper 30s across the Hill Country, the upper 30s to mid-40s across Central Texas and the mid to upper 40s across the coastal plains. An area of clouds developed across the Hill Country late Thursday night and this layer of clouds kept the temperature from falling below freezing at most locations. However, a couple of spots in the vicinity of Goldthwaite and Brownwood did record lows between 30 and 32 degrees. In Austin, Camp Mabry recorded a low temperature of 44 degrees while Austin-Bergstrom recorded 39 degrees.
Sunny, quiet and cool weather is in place on this Friday. Light northeast to easterly winds at 5-10 mph can be expected this afternoon through tonight. Today’s temperatures is predicted to warm to the mid and upper-60s. It will be clear and cool Friday night. Lows Saturday morning will range from the mid-40s across the Hill Country, to around 50 degrees near the coast.
For the weekend, sunny conditions look to continue Saturday. Temperatures will trend warmer as southerly winds increase to 10-20 mph. Expect readings to generally reach the mid-70s Saturday afternoon. The sky is forecast to become cloudy Saturday night as moisture begins returning off the Gulf. Lows Sunday morning will range from the mid-50s west, to the low 60s near the coast.
Forecasts call for another cold front to sweep southeast across the region Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon. The front is predicted to push across the northern Hill Country late Sunday morning, the Austin area around mid-afternoon and the coastal plains region in the late afternoon and early evening. No rain is forecast with the front when it moves across the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor. However, there will be a slight chance for a few light showers and isolated thunderstorms along the front for areas east of Interstate 35. Rain amounts should only average around a tenth of an inch. Ahead of the front, temperatures are predicted to warm to the upper 70s to low 80s. Behind the front, breezy and cooler conditions will develop.
Lows Monday morning will be near 40-42 degrees across the Hill Country, near 45-48 degrees across Central Texas and near 50-52 degrees across the coastal plains.
Looking at next week, sunny and cooler weather is forecast Monday and Tuesday. High temperatures will be in the mid-60s Monday, warming to around 70-72 degrees Tuesday. It will be chilly Monday night, but no freezes are expected. Lows Tuesday morning will include the mid and upper 30s across the Hill Country, the upper 30s to 40 degrees across Central Texas and the low 40s across the coastal plains. Lows Wednesday morning will be in the 50s.
An unsettled weather pattern is forecast to take shape for the second half of the week, including Thanksgiving Day. Forecasts call for a trough of low pressure to slowly track southeast out of the southern Rockies mid-week, with the trough tracking across Texas Thursday through Friday and exiting to the east sometime next weekend. A cold front associated with the upper trough is predicted to spread south across the area Thanksgiving Day into Thursday night, bringing cooler air.
Based on the factors listed above, clouds are predicted to increase Wednesday, with the sky becoming mostly cloudy Wednesday afternoon. There will be a slight chance for rain showers Wednesday afternoon, followed by an increasing chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday night through Thanksgiving Day. Periods of rain look to continue across the area Thursday night through Friday as an overrunning pattern sets up. The forecast beyond Friday is somewhat uncertain, as a couple of model solutions show the trough exiting to the east, bringing an end to the rain. Meanwhile, other solutions show the rain lingering into Saturday.
Rainfall forecasts through next Friday call for widespread totals of 1-2 inches for areas east of Interstate 35. To the west of I-35, totals should average between 0.5 and 1 inch.
NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Friday through 7 pm Next Friday:
Temperatures will trend cooler behind the cold front beginning late Thursday. High temperatures Thanksgiving Day are predicted to be in the upper 60s. High temperatures next Friday through Sunday are forecast be in the low to mid 60s. Meanwhile, low temperatures are predicted to generally be in the upper 40s to 50 degrees.
I’ll have more specifics on next week’s weather in Monday’s report.
Tropical Weather Outlook
Weather conditions are quiet across the tropical Atlantic. Tropical cyclone development is not expected as atmospheric conditions have become unfavorable with the change of season.
Lunar Eclipse Recap
The sky was clear across the eastern half of Texas Thursday night and conditions were perfect for observing the near-total lunar eclipse. If you slept in and missed the event, you can check out some photos of the awesome-looking eclipsed moon from EarthSky’s eclipse photo gallery: https://earthsky.org/todays-image/lunar-eclipse-photos-nov-18-19-2021
Have a good weekend.
Climate Prediction Center Issues an Updated Winter Outlook
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued their monthly seasonal update on temperature and precipitation Thursday. The outlook for winter into early spring showed few changes from what was presented last month. The weather pattern over this period is predicted to be heavily influenced by a weak to moderate La Niña. For most of Texas, this translates into increased odds the temperature will average milder than-normal and precipitation will average drier than-normal over the winter and into early spring.
The latest forecast for La Niña calls for the feature to persist through early spring, with the pattern weakening and dissipating mid to late spring 2022.
While the overall pattern is expected to be drier and milder than-normal, temporary weakening of the La Niña pattern can be expected from time to time, allowing for periods of rain and intrusions of cold air.
While a repeat of last winter’s extreme cold event is within the realm of possibilities, it appears to be highly unlikely.
With the forecast for below-normal precipitation over the next 3 to 4 months, CPC’s Seasonal Drought Outlook, looking out through the end of January, is calling for drought conditions to develop across all of Central and South Texas.
Hopefully, periodic rains will limit the magnitude of the expected drought conditions.
Unusually Warm Temperatures through Wednesday. Turning Cooler Thursday and Friday
It was another amazing weekend of weather across Central and South Texas. Saturday started off chilly, with lows in the 30s and 40s across the region. According to LCRA’s Hydromet, several Hill Country locations located between Rocksprings, Menard, and Brownwood recorded temperatures at or below freezing. The lowest observed temperature was 27 degrees, at a gauge located near Fort McKavett, in eastern Schleicher County. Temperatures warmed to the low 70s Saturday and got close to 80 degrees Sunday.
The weather is expected to stay fairly quiet this week. Our region’s weather is currently being dominated by a large, stable ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere covering the Southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico. The ridge is predicted to remain in the same general area through the middle of the week. At the surface, southerly winds off the Gulf of Mexico have returned to all of Texas, bringing in warmer and slightly more humid air. With a slow increase in moisture, expect a pattern of late night and morning clouds, followed by mostly sunny afternoons Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures are forecast to be unseasonably warm, with highs near 80-82 degrees this afternoon and Tuesday and near 82-85 degrees on Wednesday. Lows Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will range from the upper 50s across the Hill Country, to the low and mid-60s near the coast.
Expect breezy conditions this afternoon through Wednesday. Southerly winds are forecast to be around 10-15 mph this afternoon and tonight. Wind speeds of 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph are forecast Tuesday through Wednesday.
A change in the weather is forecast to take place Wednesday night when a fairly strong cold front pushes south out of the southern Plains. The front is forecast to move across the Hill Country and most of Central Texas late Wednesday night, crossing the middle Texas coast after sunrise on Thursday. No rain is forecast across the Hill Country along the cold front. However, there will be a slight chance for rain showers and a couple of isolated thunderstorms across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast when the front encounters a bit more moisture. Rain amounts should only total around a tenth of an inch, or less.
Sunny, breezy and cooler weather will follow the cold front on Thursday. Afternoon temperatures are forecast to warm to the low and mid-60s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and to around 70 degrees across the coastal plains. Thursday night is shaping up to be the coldest night of the week. Lows Friday morning will include the mid and upper 30s across the Hill Country, be around 40-42 degrees across Central Texas, with mid to upper 40s across the coastal plains.
Sunny and warmer weather will follow Friday and Saturday as southerly winds return to the area. High temperatures will be in the mid and upper 60s Friday, warming to the mid-70s Saturday. Lows Saturday morning will be in the mid and upper 40s, while lows Sunday morning will be in the low and mid-50s.
Forecasts call for another cold front to move across the area on Sunday, bringing a slight chance rain to areas along and east of Interstate 35. Rain amounts will be low, with most totals only averaging around a tenth to a quarter of an inch. Sunday’s sky will be partly cloudy, with temperatures warming to the low 70s.
The outlook for next week now calls for generally dry weather, with just a slight chance for rain occurring along a cold front Wednesday night into Thursday morning. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be around 68 degrees, warming to the low and mid-70s Wednesday. Lows will generally be in the mid and upper 40s.
In the wake of the cold front Thanksgiving Day, sunny weather and cooler temperatures are forecast late week into the following weekend. Daily high temperatures are predicted to be around 68-70 degrees, with low temperatures in the mid and upper 40s.
Tropical Weather Outlook
Weather conditions are quiet across the tropical Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. There are no systems in place which pose a threat for tropical development over the next 5 days. The tropical weather season will officially come to an end November 30th.
Partial Lunar Eclipse Visible Early Friday Morning
This Friday morning, Nov. 19th, the full Moon will glide through the shadow of Earth, producing an almost-total lunar eclipse. All but a tiny sliver of the full Moon will turn sunset red during the 3 1/2 hour event. Technically, this will be a partial eclipse, but it will be exquisitely close to total. You won’t need any special equipment to see it—just an unobstructed view of the sky and the moon.
The overall duration of the November 2021 eclipse – from the moment the moon enters Earth’s penumbral shadow, to the moment it leaves – will be around 21,693 seconds (about 6 hours and 2 minutes). For a non-total lunar eclipse – in other words, a lunar eclipse that only has penumbral and partial phases – this is an unusually long duration. The maximum point of the eclipse comes about 41 hours before the moon reaches apogee, its farthest point from Earth for this month. The farther away the moon is, the slower it travels along its orbit. A moon at apogee simply takes longer to pass through Earth’s shadow.
Penumbral Eclipse Begins: 12:02 am CST on November 19
Partial Eclipse Begins: 01:19 am CST
Greatest Eclipse Occurs at 3:03 am CST
Partial Eclipse Ends: 4:47 am CST
Penumbral Eclipse Ends: 6:04 am CST
This will be the longest partial lunar eclipse since the 15th century. Don’t miss it!
Have a good week.
Dry Pattern Continues for the Next Week. Cooler this Weekend, Warmer First Half of Next Week
Quiet, fall-like weather conditions are in place across the region as we close out the work week. Thursday morning’s cold front ushered in cooler and drier air that will set the stage for a beautiful weekend of weather. Friday morning did start off rather chilly across the Hill Country and parts of Central Texas, where minimum temperatures generally ranged from the mid-30s to the mid-40s. According to LCRA’s Hydromet, a couple of locations located west of Junction and Brownwood reached 33 degrees. In Austin, Camp Mabry recorded a low temperature of 45 degrees while Austin-Bergstrom Airport recorded a low of 41 degrees.
Sunny and mild weather will be in place this afternoon. Southwesterly breezes at 5-10 mph will allow the temperature to warm into the low and mid-70s. Up to our north, another cold front is pushing south out of Northwest Texas. The front is forecast to move across the northern Hill Country early this afternoon, reaching the Austin area mid-afternoon and the coastal region about sunset. With a very dry and stable atmosphere in place, no clouds or rain are forecast with the cold front. However, slightly cooler air will spread into the area Friday night through Saturday. The combination of a clear sky and light winds Friday night will prompt very efficient cooling, leading to some of the coolest readings so far this autumn.
- Lows Saturday morning will include the mid and upper 30s across the Hill Country, the upper 30s to low 40s across Central Texas, and the low and mid-40s across the coastal plains. Do note the temperature will likely fall below freezing at many low-lying and valley areas of the Hill Country.
Sunny and pleasant weather will be in place over the weekend as our region remains under a dry and stable weather pattern.
- High temperatures will be in the upper 60s Saturday, warming to the mid-70s on Sunday.
- Lows Sunday morning will generally be in the mid-40s.
- Lows Monday morning will range from the upper 40s across the Hill Country to the low 50s near the coast.
Sunny and warmer weather is expected for the first half of next week as a ridge of high pressure over northern Mexico and the Desert Southwest expands across Texas. Expect a high temperature in in the upper 70s Monday, near 80 degrees Tuesday and in the lower 80s on Wednesday. Low temperatures will be in the 50s. Breezy south winds of 10-20 mph are forecast Tuesday and Wednesday as the pressure gradient strengthens across Texas.
A trough of low pressure pushing east across the Plains states will help push a cold front south across Texas next Wednesday night into Thursday morning. No rain is forecast with the cold front when it moves across the Hill Country or the Interstate 35 corridor. However, there may be just enough moisture in place for a few showers and isolated thunderstorms for locations located east of Interstate 35. Rain amounts, if any, appear to be quite low.
Sunny and cooler weather will follow the cold front Thursday afternoon, continuing into next weekend. Look for high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s, with low temperatures in the 40s to low 50s.
The outlook for the week of November 22nd (Thanksgiving week) calls for the weather pattern to trend more unsettled across much of Texas as a series of low pressure troughs move across Texas out of the southern Rockies and the Desert Southwest. While the timing of these systems is still uncertain, they do look to being periods of rain to our area beginning early in the week, continuing through late week. Temperatures throughout the week will be cool, with highs in the 60s and lows around 50 degrees. More specifics about the holiday week weather should become clearer over the next week.
Tropical Weather Outlook
Weather conditions are quiet across the tropical Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. There are no systems around which pose a threat for tropical storm development for at least the next 5 days.
The Moon, Jupiter and Saturn Friday Night
The Moon will shine to the left of Jupiter and Saturn Friday evening, forming a gentle curving arc with the two planets. It should be quite the site!
Lunar Eclipse Visible Next Friday Morning
Mark your calendar now! Early next Friday morning, Nov. 19th, the full Moon will glide through the shadow of Earth, producing an almost-total lunar eclipse. All but a tiny sliver of the full Moon will turn sunset red during the 3 1/2 hour event! Across Texas, the event will begin at 1:19 am CST, reaching the greatest eclipse at 3:03 am and the eclipse ending at 6:04 am CST. Because the moon will be near apogee in its orbit around Earth, this will be the longest lunar eclipse in a span of some 1,000 years! I’ll provide more details on the eclipse next week.
Have a great weekend!
La Niña has Strengthened; Now Expected to Persist into Spring 2022
On Thursday, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued their monthly update on the state of ENSO. After developing in September, La Niña continued and strengthened during October. Below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are now being observed across most of the equatorial Pacific:
In the past week, all the Niño index values were between 0.7°C and 1.0°C below normal. Beneath the surface, cooler-than-average temperatures were observed at roughly the same amplitude as observed at this time last month. This reflected the prevalence of below-average water temperatures throughout the eastern Pacific Ocean. Low-level easterly and upper-level westerly wind anomalies were again observed over parts of the equatorial Pacific, although weaker than last month. Tropical convection was suppressed near and west of the Date Line and was slightly enhanced over Indonesia. The Southern Oscillation Index and Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index remained positive. Putting all these factors together, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system was quite consistent with a weak to moderate La Niña.
The International Research Institute/Climate Prediction Center’s plume average of forecasts for the Niño-3.4 SST index favors La Niña to continue through January-March 2022 season. However, the forecaster consensus anticipates La Niña may persist even longer, now potentially not returning to ENSO-neutral until sometime between April and June 2022. CPC is predicting the Niño-3.4 index has a 66% chance of reaching a value less than -1.0°C between November 2021 and January 2022, but only a 14% chance of being below -1.5°C. Thus, at its peak, a moderate-strength La Niña is favored.
La Niña is anticipated to have a significant impact on temperature and precipitation across the United States from late fall through early spring. For Central and South Texas, this moderate La Niña is expected to cause overall temperatures to average above normal and precipitation to average below normal.
In summary, CPC forecasters indicate there is a ~90% chance for La Niña to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2021-22. There is a ~50% chance for La Nina to continue during March-May.
Will this La Niña, already a second year La Niña, end up as part of a trilogy? Three La Niña winters in a row isn’t unprecedented—that happened in 1973–1976, and 1998–2001—but it is relatively unusual. We will have a better idea by the late spring about what may happen with ENSO in 2022–2023.
The Weather Stays Quiet all Week. Trending Cooler Late Week.
Weekend weather conditions were outstanding, with pleasant daytime temperatures and cool nights! Readings dipped into the 30s across the Hill Country and parts of Central Texas on both Saturday and Sunday mornings, but only fell to the 40s and 50s Monday morning. The large dome of Canadian high pressure which settled south across Texas over the weekend has now shifted to the Southeastern U.S. Southerly breezes on the back side of the high pressure system will bring a return of slightly warmer and more humid weather conditions to Central and South Texas through mid-week. Dry and quiet weather is forecast through Wednesday.
For this afternoon, expect a sunny sky. Temperatures are forecast to climb in the mid-70s, with upper 70s expected towards the coast. Monday night, widespread low clouds are forecast to develop across the region after midnight. Some patchy fog will be possible for areas along and east of Interstate 35 early Tuesday morning. Lows Tuesday will be mostly in the mid-50s.
Widespread low clouds Tuesday morning will give way to a mostly cloudy sky Tuesday afternoon as a large area of high-level clouds spreads over Texas out of northern Mexico. Despite the clouds, afternoon temperatures should still warm to the mid and upper 70s. Lows Wednesday morning will range from the mid-50s across the Hill Country, to around 60 degrees near the coast.
For Wednesday, expect morning low clouds, followed by mostly sunny conditions in the afternoon. Wednesday will likely be the warmest day of the week, with afternoon temperatures peaking close to 80 degrees. Expect breezy south winds at 10-20 mph, with gusts to 25 mph.
A slight change in the weather is forecast to take place Wednesday night into Thursday morning when a trough of low pressure swings east from the southern Rockies to the southern Plains states. The trough will help push a Pacific cold front across the central part of the state late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. It appears the atmosphere will be too dry and too stable for any rain to develop along the front when moves across the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor. However, a couple of spotty light rain showers will be possible along the front when it moves over the area east of Interstate 35 early Thursday morning. The chance for rain will quickly end from west to east by late morning. Rain amounts, if any, should total just a few hundredths of an inch.
Veterans Day weather is shaping up to be mostly sunny and breezy. Expect northwesterly winds at 10-15 mph. High temperatures will include the low to mid-70s across the Hill Country and Central regions and be close to 80 degrees across the coastal plains region. Lows Friday morning will include the mid-40s across the Hill Country, the upper 40s across Central Texas and the mid-50s across the coastal plains.
A stronger surge of cooler is predicted to spread south across the region early Friday morning. Friday’s weather is looking sunny, breezy and cooler. Afternoon temperatures are forecast to reach the mid-60s across the Hill Country, the upper 60s across Central Texas and the low 70s towards the coast. Lows Saturday morning will range from the mid and upper 30s across the Hill Country to the low 40s across the coastal plains region.
The upcoming weekend is expected to be sunny and quite pleasant! High temperatures will be in the upper 60s Saturday, warming to the low 70s on Sunday. Lows Sunday morning will generally be in the low 40s, warming to around 48-50 degrees Monday morning.
Looking ahead to next week, sunny and mild weather is forecast through the first half of the week. High temperatures look to be in the 70s, with lows in the 50s. A cold front is forecast to sweep across the area sometime late week, bringing a few showers and some cooler air.
It’s still too early to get much of a handle on weather conditions for the period of Thanksgiving. Stay tuned!
Tropical Weather Outlook
Weather conditions are quiet across the tropical Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. There are no systems in place which pose a threat for tropical development for at least the next 5 days.
Tropical Storm Wanda transitioned into an extratropical low pressure system northwest of the Azores Sunday afternoon.
National Hurricane Center forecasters are monitoring a non-tropical low pressure system with storm-force winds located nearly 400 hundred miles east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. This system is forecast to move east-northeastward during the next several days. By mid-week, the system could gradually lose its frontal characteristics over the subtropical Atlantic Ocean and briefly acquire some subtropical characteristics before merging with
a larger low pressure system, over the north-central Atlantic. However, the chance of subtropical cyclone formation appears to be decreasing. NHC forecasters are giving this system a low chance, a 10 percent chance, for tropical development over the next 5 days.
Have a good week.
Sunny, Quiet, Fall-Like Weather Will Continue through the Middle of Next Week
This week’s cold front brought with it some of the coolest air of the season. According to LCRA’s Hydromet, low temperatures Friday morning were generally between 36 and 42 degrees across Central Texas and between 45 and 48 degrees across the coastal plains. The lowest recorded temperature was 34 degrees at a couple of gauges located in northern Travis County, plus another gauge located near Dripping Springs, in Hays County. Across the Hill Country, temperatures stayed a bit warmer overnight thanks to a persistent area of low clouds. Here, lows Friday morning were generally in the upper 40s. In Austin, the temperature reached as low as 42 degrees at Camp Mabry and 38 degrees at Austin-Bergstrom Airport.
Friday morning satellite images showed widespread low clouds persisting across the Hill Country, the Edwards Plateau, and Southwest Texas. These clouds are predicted to slowly thin beginning late morning, with the sky becoming sunny early to mid-afternoon. A sunny sky will be in place across the rest of the region. With abundant sunshine, afternoon high temperatures will range from the low 60s across the Hill Country to the upper 60s towards the coast. Expect a light northeast wind at 5-10 mph. It will be chilly again Friday night. Lows Saturday morning are predicted to be near 40-42 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and in the mid-40s across the coastal plains.
Sunny and beautiful weather is forecast over the weekend. A large area of Canadian high pressure will remain over Texas through early Sunday, keeping temperatures very fall-like. The high pressure area is forecast to begin moving off to the east Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, bringing a return of light southeasterly winds.
- High temperatures Saturday are predicted to be in the low 70s, warming to the mid-70s on Sunday.
- Lows Sunday morning are forecast to be in the low and mid-40s, with upper 40s expected towards the coast.
- Lows Monday morning will include the upper 40s across the Hill Country, the upper 40s to low 50s across Central Texas and the low 50s near the coast.
Looking ahead to next week, mostly sunny, dry, and warmer weather is forecast Monday through Wednesday. Southerly winds off the Gulf of Mexico will bring in warmer air and increasing humidity levels. Expect late night and morning clouds followed by mostly sunny conditions in the afternoon.
- High temperatures will be in the upper 70s Monday, warming to near 80 degrees Tuesday and into the low 80s on Wednesday.
- Low temperatures Tuesday through Thursday mornings will generally be in the 50s.
Some slight changes to the weather pattern are forecast to take place Thursday, Veterans Day, when a Pacific cold front pushes southeast across the area. As of now, atmospheric conditions are not shaping up to be all that favorable for rain when the front moves across the Hill Country. The Interstate 35 corridor and areas to the east are predicted to see a slight chance for rain showers—mainly in the afternoon. Rain amounts are forecast to total under a quarter inch. Thursday’s sky will be partly cloudy, with high temperatures in the mid-70s.
Sunny, dry and slightly cooler weather will follow the cold front next Friday. Expect a high temperature near 70 degrees.
A sunny, quiet and fall-like weather pattern is forecast next weekend and most of the week of November 15th as the storm track shifts north and a large ridge of high pressure sets up over the western U.S. High temperatures through the period will generally be in the low 70s, with lows mostly in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Tropical Weather Outlook
Aside from Tropical Storm Wanda over the north Atlantic, weather conditions are quiet across the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea and the tropical Atlantic and tropical cyclone formation is not expected for at least the next 5 days.
As of 10 am CDT Friday, the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was located roughly 970 miles west-northwest of the Azores. Wanda was moving toward the south-southeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A southward motion is expected this afternoon through Saturday, and a turn toward the northeast is expected Saturday night or Sunday. Wanda is forecast to merge with a frontal zone Monday, and become a non-tropical low pressure system by Tuesday. The system is forecast to track north of Ireland the middle of next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today and tonight, while slight strengthening is possible on Saturday.
NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 11-05-21 9:50 am CDT
Time Change Weekend
Don’t forget this Sunday morning at 2:00 am, Daylight Saving Time will come to an end. At that time, we will move our clocks back one hour, gaining an extra hour of sleep.
The Moon and Venus
Watch for a young, very thin moon in the western sky over the next few evenings. On Sunday evening, The bright planet Venus and the crescent moon will be very close together as twilight fades.
Have a great weekend!