Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

Only low totals of rain are forecast across the region through the end of March. So far this month, the rain has generally been between 1 and 2 inches below normal. The month of March appears to be fitting into the pattern of below normal rain that has been in place since late November. However, some changes may be on the horizon as several of the latest forecast model solutions are pointing toward a wetter pattern developing across Texas during April, with the rain trending above normal. Stay tuned for further updates.

No big swings in the temperature are expected through the end of the month. High temperatures are expected to stay mostly in the upper 70s to mid-80s.

This Afternoon and Tonight

At midday, a Pacific cold front was pushing east across the  Interstate 35 corridor. Earlier this morning, the cold front generated some strong to severe storms across parts of North Texas. Further south across Central Texas and the Hill Country, the atmosphere has been more stable and front has only been able to generate a thin band of light rain showers. This area of light showers is forecast to push east across the eastern counties of Central Texas and the coastal plains region this afternoon. The front is predicted to move off the middle Texas coast early Friday evening.

The sky is clearing quickly behind the cold front as drier and very stable air spreads in from the west. In addition, breezy westerly winds with speeds of 10-20 mph and gusts to 30 mph are forecast. Wind speeds of 10-15 mph are expected to continue Friday evening and Friday night.

• Friday’s high temperature is forecast to be in the low and mid-80s.
• Lows Saturday morning are forecast to be in the low 50s, with mid and upper 50s expected towards the coast.

Saturday through Sunday

Saturday’s weather will be sunny and very spring-like as Pacific high pressure settles across Texas. Expect low humidity levels and light northwesterly breezes. Temperatures will trend a little cooler Saturday night.

• Saturday’s high temperature should range from the upper 70s across the Hill Country, the mid-80s near the coast.
• Lows Sunday morning will include the upper 40s across the Hill Country, the low 50s across Central Texas, and the mid-50s towards the coast.

Sunday’s weather is shaping up to be mostly sunny to partly cloudy across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and mostly cloudy across the coastal plains. Forecasts call for today’s cold front to move back north to the Interstate 10 corridor Sunday afternoon, pulling moisture north from the Gulf. A 30-40 percent chance for scattered rain showers is forecast for across the coastal plains Sunday afternoon. Rain amounts should total less than a quarter inch.

• Sunday’s temperatures is forecast to warm to around 78-80 degrees.
• Lows Monday morning will range from the upper 40s across the Hill Country, to the mid-50s across Central Texas, to the low 60s near the coast.

Monday through Wednesday

The sky is forecast to be partly to mostly cloudy all three days. A weak cold front is predicted to sag south into the area early Tuesday, but move back to the north on Wednesday.  The front is expected to generate a slight chance for rain showers across the region Tuesday and Wednesday. The  probability for rain will only be 20 percent. Rain amounts, if any, are forecast to average around a tenth of an inch.

• High temperatures Monday through Wednesday are forecast to generally be in the mid-70s.

• Low temperatures Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday mornings are forecast to be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Next Thursday and Friday

There will be a chance for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms late Thursday through Friday morning as the next upstream Pacific trough of low pressure tracks from the Desert Southwest to the southern Plains states. The trough will help push another Pacific cold front through the area, with showers and thunderstorms expected along the front. An early forecast on rain amounts calls for totals to be in the range of 0.25 to 0.35 inches.

• High temperatures both days are predicted to be near 80 degrees.
• Lows Friday morning are forecast to be in the 60s, while low Saturday morning are forecast to be in the 50s.

Next Weekend

Forecasts call for partly cloudy and warm weather, with high temperatures in the low 80s, and lows in the 60s.

Venus, Jupiter, Mercury, and the Moon

Venus is the brilliant “Evening Star” shining in the west during and after dusk. It finally sets almost 2 hours after dark. Look for the young moon to be below Venus Friday evening, then move above Venus over the weekend.

Mercury and Jupiter are very low in the glow of sunset. Look due west about a half hour after sunset, far to the lower right of Venus. Binoculars will help. Jupiter is magnitude –2.0 and Mercury is not far behind: magnitude –1.5 on Friday March 24th, fading to –1.1 over the next seven days.

Have a good weekend!

Bob

Weekend temperatures were quite chilly, but fortunately, few locations recorded readings at or below freezing. The chilly air mass that’s been in place since Friday is now on its way out and warmer temperatures are expected beginning Monday night.

A few light showers will be possible Tuesday morning, but the best chance for rain this week looks to occur Thursday night into Friday morning when a Pacific cold front moves across the state. Some severe storms will be possible.

Long-range forecasts don’t show any additional cold air spreading into Central Texas over the next couple of weeks.

This Afternoon

Widespread low clouds are forecast to hang tough across the area as southerly breezes pull moisture inland off the Gulf. Expect south and southeasterly breezes in the range of 10-15 mph, with occasional gusts to 25 mph. Afternoon temperatures are forecast to peak around 60 degrees across most of the area.

Monday Night through Tuesday Night

Breezy southerly winds with speeds of 10-15 mph are forecast to continue overnight, pulling additional moisture inland from the Gulf of Mexico. With moisture levels increasing, some patchy drizzle will be possible after midnight.

->Lows Tuesday morning are forecast to be in the low 50s across the Hill Country and Central Texas, and in the mid to upper 50s near the coast.

Tuesday morning will feature widespread clouds and even some spotty light rain showers. The sky is expected to stay mostly cloudy Tuesday afternoon. The breezy conditions will continue, with speeds in the range of 10-20 mph, with occasional gusts to 30 mph.

->High temperatures Tuesday are forecast to be in the low 70s.

Cloudy, breezy and mild weather is forecast Tuesday night.

->Lows Wednesday morning are forecast to be in the low and mid-60s.

Wednesday

Wednesday’s weather will feature widespread low clouds through the morning hours, followed by a partly cloudy to mostly sunny sky in the afternoon. Expect breezy south winds in the range of 10-20 mph, with occasional gusts to 35 mph.

High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be in the low 80s.

Thursday through Friday

Forecasts call for a trough of low pressure to track from the southern Rockies to the southern Plains states Thursday into Friday. The trough will help push a Pacific cold front across the state late Thursday into Friday morning.

Expect a partly to mostly cloudy sky and breezy conditions Thursday afternoon. In advance of the cold front, there will be a 40 percent chance for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Some of these thunderstorms may be strong to severe, producing large hail and damaging winds.

Thursday’s high temperature is predicted to be near 80-82 degrees.

The Pacific cold front is forecast to move across the Hill Country sometime between late Thursday evening and midnight Thursday night. The front is forecast to move across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast after midnight Thursday night, exiting off the coast Friday morning. Forecasts call for an area of rain showers and strong to severe thunderstorms to develop along and just behind the cold front when it moves across the area. The rain is forecast to taper off from west to east early Friday morning as drier air spreads in behind the cold front.

Rain amounts between Thursday afternoon and Friday morning are not expected to be very heavy, with most totals averaging around a quarter inch. Some isolated totals to around a half inch will be possible.

Lows Friday morning will be in the 50s. High temperatures Friday are forecast to be in the upper 70s.

Lows Saturday morning will range from the mid-40s across the Hill Country, to the mid-50s across the coastal plains.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Monday through 7 pm Saturday:

Saturday

Sunny and very pleasant weather is forecast.

High temperatures will be around 78-80 degrees.

Lows Sunday morning will range from the low 50s west, to around 60 degrees near the coast.

Sunday through Monday

Expect a partly cloudy sky with a slight chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms both days as a weak trough of low pressure skirts the northwestern part of the state. Rain amounts, if any, will only average around a tenth of an inch. Expect high temperatures around 80 degrees, with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Next Tuesday through Thursday

Expect partly cloudy, breezy and warm conditions, with high temperatures in the low 80s, and lows in in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Forecasts point to a chance for rain showers and thunderstorms developing late next week as a Pacific trough of low pressure approaches from the west.

Bob

Thunderstorms spread southeast across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast Thursday evening and Thursday night. The storms produced considerable lightning and thunder, some one-half to three quarters inch-sized hail at a few locations, along with strong and gusty winds. With most of the storms missing the Hill Country, rain amounts here were generally less than a tenth of an inch. For locations east of Interstate 35, including the middle Texas coast, most totals were generally between 0.5 and 1 inch. According to LCRA’s Hydromet, the highest gauged total was 1.29 inches at Columbus, in Colorado County. Through 8 am Friday, Austin-Camp Mabry recorded 0.19 inches, while Austin-Bergstrom recorded 0.88 inches.

Thursday night’s storms developed along a strong Canadian cold front which swept south through the area Thursday night, bringing much colder temperatures. These cold readings are expected to stick around through Monday, followed by milder readings for the middle and latter parts of next week.

The weather pattern is forecast to stay somewhat unsettled through Monday. A mix of rain and snow is forecast to develop across the Hill Country Friday night through midday Saturday. Across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast, expect a cold rain during the same period. Dry weather and scattered sunshine looks to return for Tuesday and Wednesday. The next chance for rain and thunderstorms is forecast to take place next Thursday into Friday.

Friday Afternoon through Friday Evening

The sky is forecast to be mostly cloudy to occasionally partly cloudy. Friday’s high temperature is predicted to be in the low and mid-50s. Expect a north wind at 10-20 mph through late afternoon.

Friday Night through Saturday Night

A weak wave of pressure located over northeastern Mexico is forecast to track across South Texas and the southern half of the Hill Country late Friday night through Saturday morning. The trough is expected to produce a widespread area of light precipitation as it moves across the area. With temperatures in the lower atmosphere across the Hill Country predicted to be below freezing, the precipitation is forecast to become a mixture of light rain and light snow. Across the southern half of the Hill Country and west into the southern Edwards Plateau, light snow accumulations up to an inch are forecast mainly on elevated and grassy surfaces. For areas north of a Johnson City, to Fredericksburg, to Junction line, just a dusting of snow is forecast. No significant impacts are expected. The rain and snow is forecast to diminish Saturday afternoon as the trough of low pressure exits to the east.

Across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast, an area of light rain is forecast to spread across the area after midnight Friday night and continue till about midday Saturday. The rain is predicted to diminish early Saturday afternoon. Rain amounts are forecast to average around a tenth of an inch, or less.

A cloudy sky is forecast Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.

• Lows Saturday morning will include the mid and upper 30s across the Hill Country, and low 40s at most other locations.
• High temperatures Saturday are forecast to be in the mid-50s.
• Lows Sunday morning will include the mid-30s across the Hill Country, the upper 30s across Central Texas, and the low 40s across the coastal plains.

Sunday through Monday

Expect a mostly cloudy to occasionally partly cloudy sky both days as a weak overrunning pattern remains in place across the area. Cold temperatures will persist.

• High temperatures Monday  and Tuesday are forecast to be in the low and mid-50s.
• Lows Monday morning will include the low and mid-30s across the Hill Country, and upper 30s across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast.
• Lows Tuesday morning are forecast to be near 40 degrees across the Hill Country, in the low 40s across Central Texas, with mid-40s across the coastal plains.

Tuesday through Wednesday

Southerly breezes are forecast to return to the region early Tuesday, bringing warmer temperatures. Morning clouds both mornings will give way to a partly cloudy sky in the afternoon.

• High temperatures Tuesday will generally be in the mid-60s.
• Low temperatures Wednesday morning will range from the mid-50s across the Hill Country, to the low 60s towards the coast.
• High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be near 78-80 degrees.
• Lows Thursday morning are forecast to be in the mid and upper 60s

Next Thursday and Friday

Forecasts call for a trough of low pressure to lift northeast from the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains states, dragging a Pacific cold front across Texas. The front is expected to bring an area of rain showers and strong to severe thunderstorms to locations mainly along and east of Interstate 35 late Thursday into Friday. An early look at rain amounts suggests totals in the range of 0.25-0.5 inches.

High temperatures are forecast to be around 78-82 degrees. Lows are forecast to be in the 50s to low 60s. No significant change in the temperature is forecast next weekend.

The next chance for rain is forecast to take place sometime around Monday, March 27^th.

Spring Arrives Monday

The vernal equinox, or the first day of spring, will take place this Monday, March 20, 2023, at 4:24 pm CDT. In the Northern Hemisphere, the spring equinox (also called the March equinox or vernal equinox across the globe) occurs when the Sun crosses the celestial equator going from south to north. On the spring equinox, the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere receive roughly equal amounts of sunlight; neither hemisphere is tilted more toward or away from the Sun than the other. Equinoxes are the only two times each year that the Sun rises due east and sets due west for all of us on Earth! While the Sun passes overhead, the tilt of the Earth is zero relative to the Sun, which means that Earth’s axis neither points toward nor away from the Sun.

Have a great weekend and stay warm!

Bob

Afternoon observations and high-resolution forecasts indicate the threat for severe storms across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions for the remainder of the afternoon and into evening has decreased, with the greatest threat for severe storms having shifted to the east.

The forecast for this evening and tonight continues to show the a possibility for strong to severe thunderstorms developing across the region ahead of and along a strong cold front that will be pushing southeast. As of mid-afternoon Thursday, the cold front was located across Northwest Texas. Forecasts call for the front to spread across the Hill Country between roughly 7 pm and 10 pm, and the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor roughly between 9 pm and midnight. The front will continue moving southeast overnight, pushing off the middle Texas coast before sunrise Friday.

A broken line of thunderstorms is predicted to develop just ahead of along the cold front as it moves to the southeast. Some of these thunderstorms may become severe, with the primary severe weather threats being damaging straight-line winds and large hail. The Storm Prediction Center continues with a Slight Risk, or 2 out of 5 risk, for severe thunderstorms across the eastern half of the Hill Country and all of Central Texas through Thursday night.

Behind the initial line of thunderstorms, forecasts call for occasional light to moderate rain showers Thursday night through Friday morning. The rain is expected to taper off by Friday afternoon.

Rainfall forecasts remain unchanged. Totals across the Hill Country are forecast to generally be between 0.25 and 0.5 inches. Elsewhere, totals are forecast to range between 0.5 and 1 inch.

Windy and much cooler temperatures can be expected behind the cold front Thursday night through Friday. The National Weather Service has posted a Wind Advisory for the region beginning 9 pm Thursday night, continuing through noon on Friday. Expect northerly winds at 20-25 mph, with occasional gusts to 40 mph.

Temperatures are forecast to fall into the low 40s by sunrise Friday morning. Temperatures Friday afternoon are predicted to only warm into the low and mid-50s. Lows Saturday morning will include the mid-30s across the Hill Country, the upper 30s across Central Texas, and the low 40s across the coastal plains.

Do note forecasts have now trended for the development of a rain/snow mix across parts of the Hill Country beginning Friday night, continuing through midday Saturday as trough of low pressure tracks east out of Mexico. No significant impacts are expected as the surface temperature will be above freezing. However, minor accumulations can be expected on elevated and grassy surfaces. Elsewhere, just an occasional cold rain is expected Friday night and Saturday . All of the precipitation should taper off Saturday afternoon.

Unseasonably cold temperatures will continue through Monday.

Bob

Although the weather is quiet across the region this afternoon, a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms is forecast for most of the area Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. This period of active weather is expected to take place as a strong trough of low pressure pushes east out of the central and southern Rockies. The West Texas dry line is predicted to push east across the Hill Country and into Central Texas Thursday afternoon ahead of the approaching trough. With a moist and fairly unstable atmosphere in place, forecasts call for the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms ahead of and along the dry line Thursday afternoon. Thursday’s atmospheric setup will be favorable for some of the thunderstorms to become severe. The primary severe weather threat will be large hail. However, damaging downburst winds and an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

Thursday’s weather will be partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, and warm. Expect southerly winds in the range of 15-20 mph, with occasional gusts to 35 mph. Thursday’s high temperature is predicted to be around 80-82 degrees.

A second round of strong to severe thunderstorms is forecast to develop Thursday evening into Thursday night when a strong Canadian cold front sinks southeast through the area. Forecasts call for a line of thunderstorms to develop just ahead of and along the cold front when it moves across the area. Once again, the atmosphere setup is expected to be favorable for some of the storms to become strong and severe. The primary severe weather threat from these storms will be damaging winds and large hail. However, an isolated tornado or two cannot be totally ruled out. An area of light rain is forecast behind the cold front.

High resolution forecasts call for the cold front to reach the northern Hill Country between 7 and 10 pm, the Austin area between about 10 pm and 1 am, the La Grange/Columbus area between 1 am and 4 am, and the middle Texas coast before sunrise.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the eastern half of the Hill Country and all of Central Texas under a Slight Risk (a 2 out of 5 risk) for severe thunderstorms through Thursday night.

Rain amounts Thursday through Thursday night are forecast to be heaviest over areas along and east of Interstate 35, and lower out across the Hill Country. Totals are predicted to generally range between 0.25 and 0.5 inches across the Hill Country, and between 0.5 inches across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Wednesday through 7 pm Friday:

The rain is predicted to exit the region early Friday morning. Windy and much colder weather is predicted behind the cold front Friday into Friday night. Expect north and northeasterly winds at 15-25 mph, with gusts up to 45 mph through Friday evening. The cold temperatures are forecast to continue through the weekend. A light freeze will even be possible at a few isolated Hill Country locations.

• High temperatures Friday are forecast to only be in the low and mid-50s.
• Lows Saturday morning will include the midd-30s across the Hill Country, the upper 30s across Central Texas, and the low 40s across the coastal plains.
• High temperatures Saturday and Sunday are forecast to be in the mid-50s.
• Lows Sunday and Monday mornings will range from the upper 30s across the Hill Country to the mid-40s across the coastal plains.

A chance for rain is forecast to develop Sunday and continue through Monday night.

Bob

Quiet and somewhat cooler weather is in place as we start off the new week. Sunday’s cold front was a reminder that winter is not quite over yet. We’ll likely be seeing even colder temperatures late week and into the upcoming weekend. In fact, parts of the Hill Country could see a light freeze Friday and Saturday mornings.

A good chance for rain and thunderstorms is forecast Thursday through early Friday morning as a strong cold front moves through the area. The highest rain amounts are expected to occur over areas located to the east of Interstate 35. Another chance for rain looks to follow early next week.

This Afternoon through Tuesday

The sky will be mostly sunny this afternoon. High temperatures will generally be in the mid and upper 60s. Lows Tuesday morning will range from the low 40s across the Hill Country, the low 50s near the coast.

A partly to mostly cloudy sky is forecast Tuesday as a weak wave of low pressure tracks east across North Texas. With limited moisture in place, just a few sprinkles of light rain can be expected. Tuesday’s temperature is forecast to warm to the mid-60s, possibly getting close to 70 degrees across the coastal plains. Lows Wednesday morning will range from the mid-40s west, to the low 50s near the coast.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night

Mostly sunny and warmer weather is forecast Wednesday as Tuesday’s trough of low pressure moves off to the east. Breezy conditions will develop by the afternoon and continue through Wednesday night. Expect with southerly winds in the range of 10-20 mph along with some gusts up to 30 mph. Wednesday’s temperature is forecast to warm to near 72-75 degrees. Lows Thursday morning will range from the upper 50s west, to the mid-60s near the coast.

A slight chance for rain showers is forecast to develop after midnight Wednesday night.

Thursday through Friday

There will be an increasing chance for rain showers and thunderstorms across the region Thursday into Thursday night as moisture quickly returns ahead of a trough of low pressure pushing east out of the southern Rockies. Scattered strong thunderstorms will be possible Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon as a dry line shifts east out of West Texas. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to continue Thursday evening and Thursday night as a strong cold front pushes south through the area. The rain is expected to taper off from west to east late Thursday night into Friday morning as drier and more stable air spreads in behind the cold front.

Rain amounts Thursday through Friday morning are not expected to be all that heavy. Totals are predicted to be less than a quarter inch across the Hill Country, between a quarter and half inch across Central Texas, and between a half and one inch across the coastal plains region.

Much cooler temperatures will develop behind the cold front beginning Thursday night!

• High temperatures Thursday are forecast to be in the upper 70s.
• Lows Friday morning will include the upper 30s across the Hill Country, the low and mid-40s across Central Texas, and the low to mid-50s across the coastal plains.
• High temperatures Friday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 50s, with low 60s towards the coast.
• Lows Saturday morning will include the mid-30s across the Hill Country, the upper 30s across Central Texas, and the low 40s across the coastal plains.

Saturday and Saturday Night

Expect a partly to mostly cloudy. Saturday’s temperature will only warm to the mid-50s. Lows Sunday morning will again include the mid-30s across the Hill Country, the upper 30s across Central Texas, and the low to mid-40s across the coastal plains.

Sunday through Next Tuesday

A slight chance to a chance for mainly rain showers is forecast Sunday into next Wednesday both days as another trough of low pressure pushes east out of the Desert Southwest. Rain amounts are forecast to average less than a quarter inch.

Cold temperatures will continue Sunday and Monday, with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s to low 40s. Milder temperatures are expected next Tuesday.

Of special note: Forecast solutions are hinting at the possible development of a little rain/snow mix across parts of the Hill Country Sunday and Monday. As of now, it appears the majority of the precipitation will remain as rain as surface temperatures hold just above freezing. Stay tuned for further updates on the possibility of some wintery weather.

Next Wednesday through Friday

Mostly sunny and warmer weather is forecast Wednesday and Thursday. Expect high temperatures in the 70s to low 80s. Lows are forecast to be in the 50s. Forecasts point to another chance for rain developing late next week.

Have a good week.

Bob

The rain and storms that had been predicted for parts of the area Thursday night passed well up to the to the north and east of our region. While a couple of LCRA Hydromet gauges located in San Saba County did record totals close to a half inch, most other locations saw little to no rain.

We’re looking at a generally dry forecast over the next seven days. Late next week, there are indications we’ll  see some rain showers and isolated thunderstorms develop across the region as a trough of low pressure and cold front move in from the west. As of now, significant amounts of rain are not expected. Another chance for rain looks to follow around March 20^th-21^st.

There will be several ups and down in the temperature over the next week as cold fronts move in and quickly retreat back to the north. The coldest point coming up will occur Monday night and Tuesday night, when temperatures look to fall into the 40s. Parts of the Hill Country could see readings fall into the upper 30s.

This Afternoon through Saturday Night

A weak cold front pushed south across the region Thursday night. As of late Friday morning, the frontal boundary had slowed down and was stalling across South Texas, between Cotulla and Corpus Christi. Expect a partly cloudy sky and slightly cooler temperatures this afternoon and tonight.

• Friday’s high temperature will range from the low 60s across the Hill Country, to around 68-70 degrees across Central Texas, to near 78-80 degrees across the coastal plains.
• Lows Saturday morning will range from the mid-50s across the Hill Country, to the low 60s near the coast.

Today’s cold front is forecast to surge back to the north as a warm front Saturday morning, allowing for a return of warmer and more humid air. Expect widespread low clouds Saturday morning, followed by a mostly sunny sky and breezy conditions in the afternoon. Winds will be out the south at 10-20 mph, with occasional gusts to 30 mph.

• High temperatures Saturday are forecast to be in the mid-80s.
• Lows Sunday morning will range from the mid and upper 50s across the Hill Country, to the upper 60s near the coast.

Sunday 

Forecasts call for a somewhat stronger cold front to push south across the area Sunday morning, bringing drier and cooler air. No rain is expected with the front. Expect a mostly sunny sky along with northerly breezes at 10-15 mph.

• High temperatures Sunday are forecast to be near 70 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and around 78-80 degrees across the coastal plains.
• Lows Monday morning will include the upper 40s across the Hill Country, be near 48-50 degrees across Central Texas, and in the low to mid-50s across the coastal plains.

Monday through Wednesday

Dry weather and cooler temperatures are forecast through the period. The sky is forecast to be mostly cloudy sky Sunday night through Monday night as a weak wave of low pressure tracks east across North Texas. No rain is forecast. In the wake of this system, the sky will be mostly sunny Tuesday through Wednesday. Southerly winds are forecast to return late Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing a return of warmer and more humid air.

• Monday’s clouds will keep Monday’s high temperature in the low and mid-60s.
• Lows Tuesday morning are forecast to be around 40-42 degrees across the Hill Country, in the low and mid-40s across Central Texas, and in the upper 40s across the coastal plains.
• High temperatures Tuesday are forecast to be in the upper 60s.
• Lows Wednesday morning will be in the upper 40s.
• High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be in the mid-70s

Next Thursday into Friday

Forecasts call for a chance for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms to develop across the region Thursday afternoon through Friday morning as another cold front moves across the area. Forecasts are not optimistic for significant totals of rain with the front, with most totals expected to be in the range of 0.25 to 0.5 inches. Dry and cooler weather is forecast next Friday afternoon through next weekend. High temperatures behind the front are forecast to be in the 60s, with lows forecast to be in the mid and upper 40s.

Time Change Weekend

This is time change weekend! Daylight Saving Time will begin this Sunday, March 12, 2023 at 2 am. At that time, we will “spring forward” by turning our clocks ahead one hour. Beginning Sunday, the early mornings will be a little darker, but the evenings will stay light longer.

Venus and Jupiter Continue their Evening Show

The planets Venus and Jupiter continue to shine in the west at dusk. Venus is the brightest at magnitude –3.9. Jupiter, at magnitude –2.1, is one fifth as bright. And as Jupiter gets lower, it’s increasingly dimmed by atmospheric effects: atmospheric extinction, and apparent “dimming” by being seen on a brighter sky background.

They will continue to get farther apart each day. On Friday March 10^th,  they’ will be separated by 9°, but by next Friday, the gap will widen to 15° apart.

Have a good weekend.

Bob

La Niña has ended! This was the announcement from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center Thursday. La Niña has persisted for more than three years and helped bring drier than-normal conditions to much of Texas during its reign. But recently La Niña has transitioned to neutral, allowing NOAA to issue its “Final La Niña Advisory”.

Observations from February 2023 showed the tongue of cooler than-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) stretching across the eastern and central tropical Pacific associated with La Nina has weakened, with the coolest waters now covering a small area around the International Date Line. In contrast to the central Pacific, SSTs in parts of the eastern Pacific Ocean have trended significantly above average, with some values more than 1°C above normal.

In the last month, area-averaged temperatures below the surface trended slightly above average—a good sign La Nina is weakening/dissipating. Meanwhile up in the atmosphere, there are still some indications of a La Niña-like strengthened Walker circulation, with more rain and clouds than average over Indonesia, less clouds and rain over the central Pacific, and enhanced trade winds. However, without the cooler sea surface temperatures characteristic of La Niña, it’s likely this pattern will diminish in the coming weeks.

In Thursday’s CPC update, the forecaster consensus was very confident a neutral Pacific will continue through spring and into early summer. (a 96 percent confidence). A neutral Pacific means the tropical Pacific Ocean will not be an actor on the world’s climate stage. The lack of El Niño or La Niña means that there is no seasonal-scale influence from the Pacific to push around the global atmospheric circulation and influence seasonal climate patterns.

It is interesting to note many computer-forecast climate models are predicting a transition from neutral to El Niño sometime later this year. However, right now is a very tricky time of year for the models, due to the something called the “spring predictability barrier.” ENSO events peak in the winter and tend to decay and transition in the spring, so models often don’t have a lot of strong signals to go on. The CPC forecaster consensus favors ENSO-neutral conditions holding on through summer 2023, with elevated chances of an El Niño developing afterwards. The smaller chances of El Niño relative to the model predictions this summer are due to the tropical Pacific atmosphere situation still being somewhat consistent with a cool/La Niña-like state. However, it is possible that strong warming near South America may portend a more rapid evolution toward El Niño sometime this summer.

The situation will be closely monitored in the months ahead.

Bob

Very quiet weather is in place as we start off the new week. You might be noticing the relative humidity has increased since the weekend, making the air feel a bit more uncomfortable. These humid conditions are expected to continue for much of the week. There’s not a lot of rain for in the outlook for this week or next week as the storm track temporarily shifts north of Texas. Last week’s prediction for colder temperatures late this week has changed, as newer forecasts now point toward the coldest air remaining north of Central and South Texas. No extremes in the temperature are expected over the next ten days.

This Afternoon through Wednesday

Very spring-like weather conditions are forecast as southerly breezes bring warm, humid air inland from the Gulf of Mexico. This will result in a pattern of late night and morning clouds, and partly cloudy afternoons. The high temperature each day is forecast to be in the low 80s. Lows Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday mornings will range from the low 60s across the Hill Country, to the upper 60s near the coast. Wind speeds will be in the range of 5-10 mph this afternoon and Tuesday, increasing to 10-15 mph on Wednesday.

Thursday through Friday

A cold front currently located across southern Oklahoma is forecast to slowly sag south into North Texas Tuesday into Wednesday. The front forecast to push south in Central Texas late Thursday, and down to the coast late Friday into Saturday. Based on the current timing of the cold front, there will be a slight chance for rain showers across the northern Hill Country Thursday morning, and a 30-40 percent chance for rain showers across all of the Hill Country and Central Texas Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon. There will be a 40 percent chance for rain showers across the coastal plains region Friday afternoon.

The chance for rain is predicted to taper off Friday evening as drier and more stable air spreads in behind the front.

Rain amounts through the period are forecast to average less than a quarter inch.

High temperatures Thursday are forecast to be in the low 80s. Highs are expected to lower to the low 70s on Friday. Lows Friday morning are forecast to be around 60 degrees. Lows Saturday morning will range from the upper 40s west, to the upper 50s near the coast.

This Weekend

A mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky is expected over the weekend in the wake of the cold front. Expect high temperatures in the mid and upper 70s, with lows in the 50s.

Next Monday through Thursday

Forecasts call for generally dry and mild weather each day. Expect high temperatures in the mid and upper 70s. Lows will generally be in the 50s.

Long-range forecasts indicate a chance for rain showers may develop late next week as weak cold front moves in the area.

The March Full “Worm” Moon

The March full moon will occur Tuesday morning at 6:42 am CST. Look for a bright, nearly full moon Monday night and Tuesday night. The Worm Moon is so-called in the Old Farmer’s Almanac and is said to be because earthworms start to emerge in March.

Bob