Forecast for Central Texas
Reports from LCRA’s HydrometRainfall summary
Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather
Cooler with Some Spotty Light Rain this Weekend. Sunny and Mild for the First Half of Next Week
This week’s unsettled weather pattern resulted in rain totals close to an inch across the northern Hill Country, generally in the area between Brownwood, Brady and San Saba. Parts of the middle Texas coast received totals between a quarter and a half inch. But across most of the region, totals so far have averaged near or less than a quarter inch. There will be another chance for rain this afternoon and again on Saturday. Mostly dry weather is expected Sunday through Wednesday. However, a chance for rain is predicted to develop late next week.
Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop and track east across the region this afternoon as a weak trough of low pressure tracks east out of Mexico. Only light to occasionally moderate rain is forecast, with the probability for rain near 50 percent. There will be a low chance a couple of the developing thunderstorms could be strong to severe, but widespread severe storms, similar to what occurred Thursday, is not anticipated. As of midday, a Canadian cold front was beginning to move into the northern Hill Country out of Northwest Texas. The front stretched from Wichita Falls to San Angelo and Fort Stockton. The front is predicted to push southeast across the Hill Country this afternoon, reaching the Austin/I-35 corridor around 6 pm. The front is forecast to continue moving southeast and push off the middle Texas coast shortly after midnight. High resolution forecasts call for a broken area of rain showers and thunderstorms to develop along the cold front across the Hill Country, with the activity spreading southeast with the front through the evening. Once again, a couple of the thunderstorms could be strong to marginally severe, producing small hail and strong winds. But widespread, severe weather is not anticipated. The showers are forecast to taper off across the Hill Country this afternoon, across Central Texas this evening and the coastal area late tonight. Northwesterly winds will increase to 10-20 mph behind the front.
Totals through sunrise Saturday are forecast to average around a quarter inch, with isolated totals to a half inch possible. High temperatures this afternoon will generally be in the low and mid-70s. Lows Saturday morning will range from the mid and upper 40s northwest, to the upper 50s near the coast.
There will be a low end probability for occasional light rain showers to spread across the region Saturday when another weak wave of low pressure tracks east out of New Mexico. Widespread overrunning clouds and spotty light rain are forecast through Saturday evening, followed by dry conditions Saturday night. Rain amounts are forecast to average less than a tenth of an inch. High temperatures Saturday are predicted to be around 58-60 degrees across the Hill Country, in the low 60s across Central Texas and in the mid to upper 60s near the coast. Expect a north wind at 10-20 mph, with occasional gusts to 30 mph. Wind speeds should decrease to 10-15 mph Saturday night. Lows Sunday morning will include the low and mid-40s across the Hill Country, the mid and upper 40s across Central Texas and be near 50 degrees close to the coast.
Sunday’s weather is looking to be mostly sunny to partly cloudy and cool. Expect a high temperature in mid-60s. Lows Monday morning will range from the mid-40s across the Hill Country to low 50s near the coast.
A partly cloudy sky is forecast Monday. However, a few sprinkles of light rain will be possible Monday afternoon into Monday evening as yet another weak disturbance pushes east out of northern Mexico. Rainfall, if any, will only amount to a few hundredths. High temperatures Monday will be in the low 70s. Lows Tuesday morning are forecast to be in the mid and upper 40s.
Mostly sunny and mild weather will be in place Tuesday and Wednesday. High temperatures both days will be in the low and mid-70s. Lows Wednesday morning will be in the upper 40s while lows Thursday morning will be in the low 50s.
Forecasts call for a chance for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms Thursday into Friday as the next upstream trough of low pressure pushes east out of New Mexico. Totals are forecast to average around a quarter inch. High temperatures Thursday will be in the mid-70s, warming to the upper 70s on Friday. Lows will be in the 50s.
Sunny and mild weather is forecast next weekend, continuing through the middle of the following week. High temperatures are forecast to be near 80-82 degrees, with low temperatures near 60 degrees. Long-range solutions indicate a chance for rain and thunderstorms developing late that week as a large trough of low pressure pushes east out of the Desert Southwest.
Forecasts do not show any unusually warm weather developing late April through early May. Weak cold fronts are forecast to continue moving south out of the Plains states going into May and this should keep summer-like temperatures away for a while longer.
Have a good weekend.
An Increasing Chance for Rain and Storms Thursday through Friday. Cooler this Weekend
Wednesday afternoon, the Storm Prediction Center issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the middle and upper Texas coast through 8 pm. The watch includes Wharton and Matagorda counties. Scattered thunderstorms are predicted to develop along a stalled boundary across the coastal plains region this afternoon and evening. The atmosphere has become quite moist and unstable this afternoon. Although the watch only extends inland two counties, strong to severe thunderstorms will also be possible a little further inland across parts of Colorado and Fayette counties. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary severe weather threats. Locally heavy rain will be possible with a few of the storms. Totals are forecast to average around a half inch, with isolated totals of 1-2 inches possible.
For the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, there will be a 20-30 percent chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and overnight. Severe storms are not anticipated. For locations do happen to see rain, totals should average less than a quarter inch.
Morning forecast solutions call for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms to increase in areal coverage across the Hill Country Thursday morning as a wave of low pressure pushes east across the southern Plains, creating a moderately unstable atmosphere. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to spread east to Central Texas late morning and afternoon. Showers and storms are also forecast to increase across the coastal plains region in the afternoon. The atmosphere is predicted to again be moderately unstable and there is low risk some of the storms may become severe. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire region under Marginal Risk (1 our of 5 risk) for severe thunderstorms through Thursday night. Totals Thursday are forecast to average around a half inch, with isolated totals to near an inch. The probability for rain will be 50 percent.
Forecasts call for another good chance for rain Friday into Friday night when a second wave of low pressure tracks east out of New Mexico, forcing a cold front south across the state. As of now, widespread severe storms are not expected. But periods of rain showers and scattered storms can be expected, with the probability for rain near 60-70 percent. Total of a quarter to a half inch are forecast.
NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Wednesday through 7 pm Monday:
The chance for rain is predicted to taper off from west to east Saturday morning as drier and cooler air spreads in behind the cold front. A mostly cloudy sky is forecast Saturday, followed by a partly cloudy sky on Sunday.
Temperatures will be noticeably cooler Saturday and Sunday, with high temperatures both days in the mid-60s. Lows Sunday and Monday mornings will include the low 40s across the Hill Country, the mid and upper 40s across Central Texas and around 50-52 degrees across the coastal plains. Sunny and mild weather is expected the first half of next week, with high temperatures staying in the 70s.
Pattern Change Bringing Cooler Temperatures and a Chance for Rain
After a taste of summer-like temperatures over the past few days, cooler readings are expected this week, continuing through next week. This slightly cooler weather pattern will be in addition to a more unsettled pattern that looks to bring a chance for rain to our region each day this week. Forecasts indicate much of the area could see totals of around an inch or possibly more over the next seven days.
Monday’s weather maps showed a cold front pushing into Texas out of the southern Plains and the southern Rockies. As of late morning, the front stretched from just north of Dallas, to near Midland, then northwest to around Gallop, New Mexico. The front is predicted to sink southeast and move across the Hill Country tonight, reaching the Austin area just after sunrise Tuesday. The cold front is expected to slowly push south to the coast, pulling up stationary just off the coast on Wednesday. Slightly cooler air will filter in behind the cold front. Weak atmospheric disturbances are forecast to track across the region out of the Southwestern U.S. this week, causing widespread overrunning clouds along with periods of rain and scattered thunderstorms. The most favorable period for rain and thunderstorms is predicted to occur Friday into Saturday.
This afternoon’s weather is forecast to be partly cloudy, breezy and warm. No rain is expected as the atmosphere will be a bit too stable. High temperatures will generally be in the mid and upper 80s. Expect a southeasterly breeze at 10-15 mph.
Tonight, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop ahead of and along the cold front over parts of West Texas. Forecasts call for the thunderstorms to track east over parts of the Hill Country late evening and overnight. Some of these thunderstorms may become severe and produce large hail and damaging winds. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area west of a line stretching from Fort Hood, to Burnet to Bandera under a Slight Risk (a 2 out of 5 risk) for severe thunderstorms overnight. The Austin metro area and the Instate 35 corridor has been placed under a Marginal Risk (a 1 out of 5 risk) for severe thunderstorms after midnight. The probability for rain overnight will be near 50 percent across the Hill Country, 40 percent along the Interstate 35 corridor and near 20 percent at most other locations. Totals through sunrise Tuesday are forecast to average between a quarter and a half inch across the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor, and much lower elsewhere. Lows Tuesday morning are predicted to be in the upper 50s to low 60s across the Hill Country and the I-35 regions and be around 68-70 degrees at most other locations.
Tuesday, there will be a slight chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the entire region throughout the day as the cold front slowly sinks south to the coastal plains. Expect a mostly cloudy sky and somewhat cooler readings. High temperatures will range from the upper 60s to low 70s across the Hill Country, to the mid-70s across Central Texas to the low and mid-80s near the coast.
Tuesday night, forecasts call for a somewhat increased chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms to develop across the region as a weak wave of low pressure pushes east out of West Texas. Severe storms are not anticipated. The probability for rain will be near 30-40 percent. Totals through sunrise Wednesday are forecast to be around a quarter inch, or less. Lows Wednesday morning will include the mid and upper 50s across the Hill Country, the low 60s across Central Texas and be near 70 degrees across the coastal plains.
Wednesday through Thursday, expect a mostly cloudy sky along with periods of scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms as additional waves of low pressure move over the region. The probability for rain will be near 30 percent. Totals both days are predicted to average less than a quarter inch. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low and mid-70s. Lows Thursday and Friday mornings will range from the mid-50s across the Hill Country to near 60 degrees across Central Texas to the mid-60s near the coast.
Friday into Friday evening, the chance for rain and thunderstorms is forecast to increase as a wave of low pressure tracks east out of West Texas. The probability for rain will be near 50 percent. Totals are forecast to generally average between a quarter and a half inch. High temperatures Friday will be in the low and mid-70s.
The outlook for the upcoming weekend calls for continued mostly cloudy weather along with slight chance for occasional rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. A fairly strong cold front is forecast to push south across the region early Saturday morning, with the front moving into the Gulf by Saturday afternoon. More waves of low pressure approaching from the west will cause a weak overrunning pattern of clouds and rain. Weekend totals are forecast to generally average between a quarter to a third of an inch. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler, with high temperatures in the upper 60s. Lows Sunday and Monday mornings will include the mid-40s across the Hill Country, near 50 degrees across Central Texas and low/mid 50s near the coast.
The outlook for next week calls for partly cloudy and mild weather Monday through Thursday. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, with lows mostly in the 50s. Some of the forecast guidance points toward an increasing chance for rain late next week into the following weekend.
NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 am Monday through 7 am Next Monday:
Have a good week and enjoy the cooler temperatures.
CSU Forecast Calls for Another Abnormally Active Atlantic Hurricane Season
Following the most storm-packed season on record in 2020, hurricane forecasters are expecting another extremely active season in 2021. Phil Kotzbach and his forecast team at Colorado State University announced the results of their first long-range forecast for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season Thursday, calling for above-average activity. In fact, this season is set to become the sixth-consecutive season with above-average activity,
The forecast team is calling for 17 named storms, compared with an average of 12.1, and 8 hurricanes, compared with an average of 6.4. The outlook also calls for four major hurricanes — up from the 30-year average of 2.7 — to move through the Atlantic this year. Major hurricanes have winds in the Category 3 range or higher, corresponding to 111 mph or greater.
The CSU team estimates there is a nearly 70-percent chance that the Lower 48 will be struck by a major hurricane this season, up from a roughly 50/50 shot in any given year.
In the outlook, Klotzbach states the primary reasons for above average activity this year is the low likelihood of a significant El Niño event and the relative warmth of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic waters. When El Niño is present, it reduces Atlantic hurricane activity due to increased vertical wind shear — changes in wind speed and direction that prevent hurricanes from forming. Klotzbach feels the current La Niña will probably dissipate going into the summer, with the Pacific transitioning to an ENSO-neutral state. ENSO-neutral conditions or even La Niña conditions create a more favorable environment for tropical storm development.
Klotzbach notes sea surface temperatures, both broadly across the Atlantic basin and in the southwest Pacific Ocean, have also started the year running a bit above average, something that’s historically been tied to more active seasons.
The CSU team also identified the likelihood that storms in the Atlantic will burn through about 150 ACE units of energy. ACE, or Accumulated Cyclone Energy, is a measure of how much energy a storm transforms into wind, and it’s a good indicator of a season’s activity. Stronger storms tally up more ACE, while weaker storms hardly net any. The average for a season is 106 units.
The National Hurricane Center’s official hurricane forecast will be released in mid-May and early indications are it will also point toward an average to above-average season.
Temperatures Heating Up this Week. Still Little Rain to Talk About
Although temperatures were pleasantly cool over the weekend, much warmer readings are expected this week. In fact, for many areas, late week temperatures are shaping up to be the warmest so far this spring. Unfortunately, the weather is expected to stay generally dry this week as the storm track remains up to the north. Longer-range forecasts do, however, indicate a somewhat more favorable pattern for at least some rain to develop next week.
On this Monday, southerly breezes have returned to Central and South Texas. This is allowing warmer and more humid air to spread north from the Gulf of Mexico. These southerly breezes are expected to remain in place through late week. In the upper atmosphere, a weak, stable ridge of high pressure is predicted to remain over Texas and northern Mexico throughout the week, causing a generally dry, stable and warm weather pattern. On Wednesday, a trough of low pressure moving across the Plains states will help push a cold front into Central Texas Wednesday night. The front is predicted to stall across Central Texas Wednesday night, with the front returning back to the north on Thursday. A couple scattered showers will be possible along the front, but no significant rain is forecast.
This afternoon, expect a partly cloudy sky with breezy and warm conditions. A couple of isolated, brief rain showers will be possible across the coastal plains region, but no significant rain is forecast. Most totals should average less than a tenth of an inch. Today’s temperature is forecast to warm to around 80 degrees. The wind will be out of the south at 10-15 mph, with occasionally gusts to 25 mph.
The sky is predicted to become cloudy late this evening across the entire region. Low temperatures Tuesday morning will be in the low 60s. Expect a good southerly breeze at 10-15 mph, and gusts to 25 mph.
For Tuesday through Thursday, expect a similar pattern of nighttime and morning clouds, followed by mostly sunny afternoons. Breezy conditions look to remain in place throughout the week. High temperatures are predicted to steadily warm.
- High temperature Tuesday are forecast to be in the mid-80s.
- High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 80s.
- High temperatures Thursday are forecast to be near 90-92 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and in the upper 80s towards the coast.
- Low temperatures will generally be in the mid-60s.
Forecasts call for a slight chance for afternoon scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday evening over areas roughly along and east of Interstate 35. A weak wave of low pressure tracking southeast out of Northwest Texas will cause a 20 percent for showers. Rainfall, if any, should total well below a quarter inch. Aside from this slight chance for rain, Friday’s weather is predicted to be partly cloudy and warm, with high temperatures again near 90-92 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and in the upper 80s towards the coast.
The outlook for the upcoming weekend calls for mostly sunny weather with temperatures not quite as warm. Expect high temperatures in the mid-80s, with low temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Looking out into next week, forecasts call for another cold front to push south through the area on Monday. This system is expected to cause some scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the region. The forecasts indicate we could see another chance for rain taking shape late in the week when a series of troughs push into Texas out the eastern Pacific. Warm temperatures will remain in place, with highs mostly in the low 80s and lows in the low 60s.
Have a good week.
A Chance for Some Light Rain Saturday into Midday Sunday; Sunny and Warm Next Week
Quiet weather and pleasant temperatures are in place as we close out the work week. Some changes in the pattern are forecast as we move through the Easter weekend and next week. The storm track has temporarily shifted north to the Canadian border, so no severe storms or widespread rain are expected for at least the next week. Temperatures will be noticeably warmer next week.
Sunny and mild weather will be in place today as our region remains under the influence of a large dome of Canadian high pressure. The temperature is expected to warm to around 68-70 degrees. Southeasterly breezes will increase to a range of 10-15 mph this afternoon. Late morning satellite images showed considerable middle and high-level clouds spreading into Texas out of northern Mexico. These clouds will cause a mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky. The sky will become mostly cloudy Friday night. Lows Saturday morning will be in the upper 40s to low 50s.
All eyes are on a weak trough of low pressure that was located Friday morning over central Arizona. This system is predicted to track southeast across southern New Mexico tonight into Saturday morning, reaching Far West Texas late Saturday. The trough is forecast to spread southeast across Central Texas Saturday night into Sunday morning, exiting into the Gulf of Mexico late Sunday.
The approaching trough combined with increasing moisture from the Pacific and Gulf is expected to cause the development of some spotty light rain showers beginning Saturday. Additional light rain showers or sprinkles of light rain are forecast Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. An isolated thunderstorm or two will be possible Saturday night. The chance for rain should taper off from west to east Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon, with the sky becoming partly cloudy. Rain amounts are forecast to be quite low, with totals through Sunday afternoon staying below a tenth of an inch. A mostly cloudy sky is predicted for Saturday, Saturday night and Sunday morning.
High temperatures will be in the upper 60s Saturday, warming to the low 70s on Easter. Low temperatures Sunday morning will be in the low 50s. Lows Monday morning will be in the mid-50s.
A pattern of morning clouds, mostly sunny afternoons and warmer temperatures is forecast next Monday through Friday as a weak ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere spreads over Texas out of the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. Expect breezy south and southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph throughout the week.
- High temperatures are predicted to be near 80 degrees Monday, warming to the mid-80s on Tuesday. High temperatures Wednesday through Friday are forecast to be around 88-90 degrees.
- Low temperatures throughout the week are predicted to be in the low and mid-60s.
Few changes in the pattern are forecast for next weekend. High temperatures look to stay near 88-90 degrees.
Looking out into the week of April 12th, forecasts call for the ridge of high pressure over Texas to weaken, allowing for a westerly wind flow to develop from southern California to Texas, to the southeastern states. This westerly flow is expected to cause our weather pattern to become a bit more unsettled by allowing moisture and weak waves of Pacific low pressure to push into Texas. At least a slight chance for showers can be expected. High temperatures are predicted to be mostly in the low 80s.
Several Evening Opportunities to See the International Space Station
If the clouds clear, the International Space Station will be visible across Central Texas every evening through next Thursday. The pass Tuesday night looks to be a really good one! Listed below is the viewing information for Austin. You can find out the information for your specific location by visiting NASA’s Spot the Station website: https://spotthestation.nasa.gov
|Fri Apr 2, 10:19 PM||< 1 min||12°||10° above NW||12° above NW|
|Sat Apr 3, 9:32 PM||2 min||30°||10° above NNW||30° above N|
|Sun Apr 4, 8:45 PM||4 min||21°||10° above NNW||17° above ENE|
|Sun Apr 4, 10:22 PM||< 1 min||11°||10° above WNW||11° above WNW|
|Mon Apr 5, 9:34 PM||3 min||50°||10° above NW||50° above WSW|
|Tue Apr 6, 8:47 PM||5 min||75°||10° above NW||22° above SE|
|Wed Apr 7, 9:38 PM||3 min||13°||10° above W||12° above SW|
|Thu Apr 8, 8:49 PM||6 min||25°||10° above WNW||10° above S|
Have a good weekend.
Taking a Look Back at March Temperatures and Rainfall
Following the extended deep freeze in February, temperatures did a 180 in March and trended well above normal. A very changed jet stream pattern limited the amount of cold air making it into Texas and promoted a pattern of warmer than normal temperatures. No freezes were recorded across Central Texas or the coastal plains. The warmer than normal temperatures experienced were part of a larger pattern of above normal temperatures that covered all of the nation east of the Rockies.
For Austin Camp Mabry, the temperature averaged 64.8 degrees, which was 3.1 degrees above normal. March ranked as the 26th warmest March on Record. For Austin-Bergstrom, the temperature averaged 62.4 degrees, which was 3.2 degrees above normal. March ranked as the 32nd warmest March on record.
The same weather pattern which brought the mild temperatures also limited the number of storms and rainfall across the region. Most totals averaged between 1 and 2 inches, although some 2 inch totals did occur across parts of the middle Texas coast and the northern Hill Country. For most of the region, normal March rainfall is between 2 and 3 inches.
The following National Weather Service graphic shows the rainfall departure from normal for the month of March. Note the rain was near normal across much of the western and northern Hill Country and below normal at most other locations.
In Austin, Camp Mabry recorded a monthly total of 1.11 inches, which was 1.65 inches below normal. March 2021 ranks as the 32nd driest March on record. At Austin-Bergstrom, March rain totaled 0.70 inches, which was 2.08 inches below normal. Here, March 2021 rainfall ranks as the 12th driest on record.
The Climate Prediction Center’s update outlook for April calls for similar conditions to what occurred in March. The outlook shows increased odds temperatures will average above normal and rainfall will average below normal.
Australian Meteorologists Declare La Niña has Ended
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) announced on Tuesday La Niña has faded. Most ENSO indicators have returned to ENSO-neutral levels and climate model outlooks suggest the Pacific will remain at neutral ENSO levels for the next several months.
According to BOM forecasters, tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures have persisted at ENSO-neutral values for several weeks now. And below the surface, much of the tropical Pacific is now at near average water temperatures. Atmospheric indicators are also generally at neutral ENSO levels. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is close to zero, while trade winds are currently being enhanced by the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). Only enhanced cloudiness near the Date Line continues to show a weak La Niña-like signature.
These changes are consistent with climate model outlooks, which have indicated a return to ENSO neutral during the southern hemisphere autumn (northern hemisphere spring), with little indication of a return to La Niña patterns in the coming months. A return to ENSO neutral conditions in autumn is also typical of the life cycle of ENSO events. All models indicate ENSO will remain in ENSO-neutral territory through at least the end of the southern hemisphere winter (northern hemisphere summer).
We will get an update on ENSO from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center on April 8th.
A Dry Week Ahead. Expect Several Breezy Days
Sunny and pleasant weather is in place across the region as start off the new week. Canadian air spreading into Texas behind Sunday’s cold front has resulted in cooler air and much lower humidity levels. While the cold front brought little to no rain to the Hill Country and Central Texas on Sunday, totals of .25 to .75 inches were recorded across the coastal plains—mainly to the south of U.S. Highway 59. LCRA’s gauge at Bay City recorded the highest total at 0.99 inches. Readings were a little chilly this morning. According to LCRA’s Hydromet, low temperatures Monday morning were a mix of upper 30s to low 40s across the Hill Country and Central Texas, and mid-40s to low 50s across the coastal plains.
There will be several changes in the weather this week as moisture returns off the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, followed by a strong cold front early Wednesday. Breezy to windy conditions will develop Tuesday and persist through late week.
This afternoon, expect a sunny sky and mild temperatures. Readings should top out in the mid and upper 70s. South winds should gradually increase to around 10-15 mph.
Widespread low clouds are forecast to develop late this evening and overnight as moisture begins returning off the Gulf of Mexico. Some patchy drizzle may develop late Monday night and toward daybreak Tuesday for areas along and east of the Escarpment, including the coastal plains. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the mid and upper 50s.
Tuesday’s weather will start off cloudy with patchy drizzle. A mostly cloudy to overcast sky will likely persist through the afternoon. There will slight chance for a few scattered rain showers across the coastal plains region as Sunday’s cold front moves back to the north as a warm front. High temperatures will generally be in the low 80s. Expect a south wind at 10-15 mph, with occasional gusts to 30 mph. Breezy conditions will continue Tuesday night.
A Canadian cold front is predicted to sink south out of North Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The front is forecast to reach the Austin area around sunrise Wednesday, pushing off the middle Texas coast around noon. The atmosphere is shaping up to be unfavorable for the development of rain when it crosses the Hill Country and Central Texas regions. However, a few scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop when the front moves across the coastal region Wednesday morning. Totals, if any, should average around a tenth of an inch.
Clouds should decrease from north to south Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon as cooler and drier air spreads in behind the cold front. Expect northerly winds at 15-25 mph, with some gusts to 35 mph Wednesday afternoon. Wind speeds should decrease to around 5-10 mph Wednesday night into Thursday. However, southerly winds are forecast to return on Friday, with speeds increasing to 10-15 mph by the afternoon.
- High temperatures Wednesday will be in the mid and upper 60s, with low to mid-70s expected towards the coast.
- Lows Thursday morning will include the upper 30s across the Hill Country, the low and mid-40s across Central Texas and the upper 40s towards the coast.
- High temperatures Thursday will be in the upper 60s.
- Lows Friday morning will be in the low and mid-40s, with upper 40s towards the coast.
- High temperatures Friday will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.
The outlook for the upcoming Easter weekend calls for a pattern of nighttime clouds and partly cloudy afternoons. Moisture is predicted to return off the Gulf of Mexico beginning late Friday and continuing through the weekend. A few spotty rain showers will not be out of the question towards the coast. High temperatures both days will be in the mid and upper 70s while lows will be in the mid-50s.
Looking ahead to next week, forecasts call for a generally dry and warm pattern across the region as a ridge of high pressure spreads over Texas out of northern Mexico. Daily high temperatures will be in the low and mid-80s, while low temperatures will be in the 60s.
The Threat for a Late Spring Freeze Appearing Quite Low
Forecast data looking out into the middle of April calls for a generally mild to warm pattern, with little threat for arctic air to slip south into Texas. In Austin, the latest freeze on record is April 9th at Camp Mabry and April 16th at Austin-Bergstrom. Based on historical extremes and the latest forecast data, I can fairly confidently say we have likely seen the last freezing temperature for the spring across Central Texas.
Have a good week.
Chances for Rain Sunday and Wednesday. Turning Noticeably Cooler Late Week
Pleasant springtime weather is in place across the region in the wake of Thursday morning’s cold front. This afternoon’s weather will be sunny and warm, with the temperature climbing to around 80-83 degrees. Expect a southeasterly breeze at 10-15 mph. Moisture will begin returning off the Gulf of Mexico Friday night, leading to widespread low clouds after midnight. Some patchy drizzle will not be out of the question around daybreak Saturday. Lows Saturday morning will range from the mid-50s across the Hill Country, to near 60 degrees across Central Texas to the mid-60s near the coast.
The current pleasant weather pattern will be changing as we move through the weekend when a trough of low pressure over the Desert Southwest and a cold front move across the area. Both systems are expected to bring scattered rain showers and even a few isolated thunderstorms to the area Saturday night through Sunday. On Saturday, widespread clouds in the morning will give way to a partly cloudy sky in the afternoon. A few widely scattered, brief rain showers will not be out of the question for the Central Texas and coastal regions, but the chance for rain will only be 20 percent. The temperature is expected to warm to the low 80s.
Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop Saturday night when a cold front pushes southeast out of Northwest Texas. The front is predicted to reach the middle Texas coast just after sunrise on Sunday. The highest probability for rain is expected to be along and just behind the cold front. Limited availability instability should keep the threat for severe thunderstorms low. Lows Sunday morning will include the low 50s across the Hill Country, the mid-50s across Central Texas and the mid-60s towards the coast.
Forecasts call periods of overrunning rain showers across the region Sunday into Sunday evening as the upper trough slowly pushes east across North Texas. The probability for rain will be near 30/40 percent. Expect a partly to mostly cloudy. Sunday’s temperature will be a little cooler, with readings topping out around 68-72 degrees.
Rain amounts from Saturday night through Sunday evening are forecast to average around a quarter inch across the Hill Country and between a quarter and a half inch at most other locations.
Sunny and pleasant weather looks to return for next Monday and Tuesday as a bubble of Canadian high pressure settles over the state. High temperatures are forecast to be in the mid-70s Monday, warming to the low and mid-80s on Tuesday. Lows Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will be in the low and mid-50s.
A few rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop Wednesday into Wednesday evening when a Canadian cold front presses south through the area. The front is forecast to reach the northern Hill Country Wednesday morning and pushing off the middle Texas coast by Wednesday evening. The probability for rain will be near 30-40 percent Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Dry weather is expected to develop by late Wednesday evening. Rain amounts are forecast to remain below a quarter inch.
Noticeably cooler temperatures will follow the cold front next Wednesday through Friday. Sunny weather will return for Thursday and Friday.
- High temperatures Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.
- Lows Thursday and Friday mornings will be near 40 degrees across the Hill Country, in the low and mid-40s Central Texas and the mid to upper 40s near the coast.
- High temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in the upper 60s.
The outlook for Easter Weekend calls for a mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky and dry weather on both days. High temperatures look to be in the low 70s Saturday and into the mid and upper 70s on Sunday. Lows temperatures will be in the 50s to low 60s.
Long-range forecasts call for generally dry weather during the week of April 5th. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low 80s, with lows in the 60s.
The March Full Moon
The March full Moon will occur Sunday afternoon, March 28, 2021, at 1:48 PM CDT. The Moon will appear full for about three days around this time, from Saturday morning through Monday night into early Tuesday morning. This year, because it is the first full Moon to occur after the spring equinox on March 20, March’s full Moon is the Paschal Full Moon. This means that its date determines the date of Easter (April 4, 2021).
According to the Old Farmer’s Almanac, March’s full Moon goes by the name Worm Moon, which was originally thought to refer to the earthworms that appear as the soil warms in spring. This invites robins and other birds to feed—a true sign of spring! An alternative explanation for this name comes from Captain Jonathan Carver, an 18th-century explorer, who wrote that this Moon name refers to a different sort of “worm”—beetle larvae—which begin to emerge from the thawing bark of trees and other winter hideouts at this time.
Have a good weekend!