Forecast for Central Texas

Friday
Fri
95 °F / 77 °F
20%
20% Chance PM Rain Showers and T-Storms
Saturday
Sat
96 °F / 77 °F
0%
Mostly Sunny
Sunday
Sun
99 °F / 77 °F
0%
Sunny, Hot!
Monday
Mon
98 °F / 73 °F
20%
20% Chance PM Rain Showers and T-Storms
Tuesday
Tue
92 °F / 72 °F
20%
20% Chance PM Rain Showers and T-Storms
Updated May 24, 2024

Rainfall summary
Temperature summary
Humidity summary

Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

Friday, May 24, 2024 2:39 PM

Memorial Day weekend has oftentimes brought heavy rain and  flooding to much of the area. While a few showers and thunderstorms are forecast over the next three days, the chances for heavy rain and flooding this Memorial Day weekend appear quite low. Interestingly, the biggest weather threats this year will likely be the extreme heat and high humidity Some of the hottest temperatures so far this year are forecast for Sunday and Memorial Day. Fortunately, this early season heatwave is expected to be short-lived and temperatures should moderate beginning Tuesday.

On this Friday, scattered late afternoon and evening thunderstorms will once again be possible across the northern Hill Country and the northern counties of Central Texas, including the Austin metro. High resolution forecasts indicate scattered thunderstorms will have some potential to develop along the dry line over the area between Brownwood, Brady, and Mason late this afternoon, with the storms then tracking east-southeast to the Interstate 35 corridor between San Marcos, Waco, and Dallas. The probability for thunderstorm development over this area will only be 20-30 percent. However, should thunderstorms develop, the atmosphere will easily support severe convection with large hail and damaging winds. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the eastern/northern Hill Country and the northern counties of Central Texas in a Slight Risk, or 2 out of 5 risk, for severe thunderstorms through Friday night.

severe0524

Rainfall from Friday’s scattered storms will be spotty, with totals to near 1 inch possible.

For most of the area, Friday’s weather will be mostly sunny and hot with high temperatures in the low and mid-90s. Expect a south breeze at 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph.

For Saturday through Sunday, no rain or thunderstorms are forecast across the region. A stable ridge of high pressure or heat dome, is predicted to build north across Texas out of Mexico. The ridge is expected to cause a pattern of sunny, humid, and hot weather both days. A southerly breeze at 10-15 mph is forecast both days.

  • High temperatures across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions are forecast to be in the mid-90s Saturday, warming to the upper 90s on Sunday. Coastal locations can expect mid-90s both days

Figuring in the high humidity level, peak heat index readings of 105-110 degrees are predicted for both days.

For anyone traveling to the middle Texas coast Friday and through the weekend, coastal hazards will also be noteworthy. A high risk for rip currents, above normal water levels, and above normal surf can be expected. If at the beach, it is advised to swim near a lifeguard and away from rocks, jetties, and piers.

Memorial Day is shaping up to be mostly sunny and quite hot across the region! High temperatures of 98 to 100 degrees are forecast across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and upper 90s across the coastal plains. While the heat will be the biggest story, there will also be a 20-30 percent chance for scattered late afternoon and evening rain showers and thunderstorms across the northern counties of the Hill Country and Central Texas, including the Austin metro. Forecasts call for a weak cold front to sag south out of North Texas late Monday into Monday night. The front is predicted to stall across the coastal plains region Tuesday. Spotty rain amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches will be possible.

Looking ahead to next Tuesday through Friday, forecast solutions are showing the development of a somewhat unsettled weather pattern. The heat dome that will build north across Texas this weekend is forecast to slowly retreat south toward Mexico. Meanwhile, forecasts call for a couple of troughs of low pressure to move across the northern half of Texas. This will result in a 30-40 percent chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the region between Tuesday evening and next Friday. Rain amounts over this period are predicted to be close to an inch, possibly higher.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Friday through 7 pm Next Friday:

rain4cast0524

High temperatures next Tuesday through Friday are forecast to generally be in the low 90s, with lows in the low and mid-70s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center forecasters are monitoring a trough of low pressure that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles to the northeast of the central Bahamas. They note an area of low pressure is expected to form within this system roughly halfway between Bermuda and Hispaniola late Friday. Although environmental conditions are not conducive, some slight subtropical or tropical development will be possible over the next couple of days while the system moves northeastward over the area east of Bermuda.

NHC forecasters are giving this system a low chance (10 percent chance) for tropical development over the next seven days.

tropics0524

Only Two Planets Currently Visible

There are currently only two planets visible in the night sky, and can only be seen in early dawn. The highest and easiest to view is Saturn, in the southeastern sky. Look for Mars far lower left of Saturn, by roughly three fists at arm’s length. It’s at magnitude 1.1, and again, nothing else there is as bright.

Mercury, Venus, Jupiter, Uranus, and Neptune are all currently veiled by the Sun’s glare and not visible.

 

I hope everyone has a safe, relaxing, and meaningful holiday weekend. If you’re planning outdoor activities, which I know many are, please dress lightly, stay hydrated, and have shade or A/C available to take breaks in and to keep yourself cooled down. Avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day, and look before you lock your car. And remember that if the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, it is too hot for your pets’ paws.

Bob

Previous Blog Entries

Hot Temperatures Will Continue into Memorial Day Weekend

Monday, May 20, 2024 2:46 PM

Without much warning, it seems summer arrived over the weekend. Temperatures spiked well in the 90s, with low 100s occurring across the western Hill Country and Edwards Plateau. At the same time, the rain and storms turned off as the summer heat dome spread over Texas out of  Mexico. Fortunately, we’re not into the doldrums of summer just yet and some variability in the weather pattern can still be expected over the next few weeks. But like it or not, warm to hot temperatures are in the forecast for the rest of May and early June.

Sunny, hot, and very stable weather conditions are in place as we start off the workweek. Monday’s analysis showed the heat dome stretching from northern Mexico, north through the southern two-thirds of Texas. Forecasts call for the heat dome to shift eastward to the western Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern U.S. by Wednesday as a trough of low pressure digs into the Southwestern U.S. The heat dome is predicted to remain over this general area through the weekend, then build back across Texas early next week.

For this afternoon and Tuesday, little change in the weather can be expected. Widespread low clouds look to develop after midnight Monday night persist into Tuesday morning. This will be followed by mostly sunny conditions Tuesday afternoon. Breezy conditions are forecast. Expect a southerly breeze at 10-15 mph, with occasional gusts to 25 mph through Tuesday night.

  • High temperatures Monday and Tuesday are forecast to generally be in the low to mid-90s.
  • Lows Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will range from the low 70s across the Hill Country, to the upper 70s near the coast.

Wednesday through Thursday, some slight changes in the weather pattern are forecast for the Hill Country and parts of Central Texas as a couple of troughs of low pressure track east across the Desert Southwest. The first trough is expected to cause a few scattered thunderstorms to develop across near the Rio Grange and the Concho Valley regions Wednesday afternoon. Any storms which happen to develop are forecast to track east into parts of the Hill Country and possibly as far east as the Interstate 35 corridor Wednesday evening. Some of these storms could be strong to severe.

A second trough of low pressure pushing east out of the Desert Southwest on Thursday is predicted to cause thunderstorms to develop along the dry across West Texas Thursday afternoon. These developing storms are forecast to track east across the Hill Country and parts of Central Texas late Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening. Once again, some of these storms may be strong to severe, possibly causing large hail and damaging winds.

Spotty rain amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches are forecast Wednesday through Friday, with isolated totals to near 1 inch possible.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Monday through 7 pm Friday:

rain4cast0520

Mostly sunny, breezy and warm weather will continue both days. Expect high temperatures in the low 90s, with lows in the mid-70s.

Storm chances will diminish Friday as the trough of low pressure exits to the northeast. However, a couple of isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the western and northern Hill Country Friday through Sunday as the ridge of high pressure or heat dome remains just to our east.

Friday through Memorial Day, expect continued mostly sunny, breezy, and hot weather. Daily high temperatures are predicted to be in the mid-90s, with lows in the mid-70s. Some upper 90s will be possible on Sunday and Monday. Higher relative humidity levels are predicted over the weekend and into early next week. The more humid air will combine with the hot temperatures to produce heat index values in the range of 105 to 110 degrees across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast.

Looking out into next Tuesday through Friday, forecasts are pointing to a chance for some rain showers and scattered thunderstorms the middle of week as a weak cold front pushes south across our area. Rain amounts are not shaping up to be very heavy, with most amounts averaging around a half inch. The front is expected to bring slightly cooler air that will lower high temperatures next Wednesday through Friday close to 90 degrees, with lows in the low 70s.

Have a good week.

Bob

 

 

The Weather Pattern Trending Warmer and More Stable

Friday, May 17, 2024 2:36 PM

Rain showers and thunderstorms spread across the region Thursday, bringing strong winds, hail, and heavy rain to many locations. Fortunately, our region of the state didn’t see the magnitude of severe weather that was experienced in the Houston area Thursday evening. Thursday’s storms did bring more beneficial rain to the northern Hill Country and most of Central Texas. Doppler radar estimates and LCRA Hydromet gauges show the storms produced widespread totals of 1-2 inches over the area stretching from Brady and Saba, southeast to Burnet, Austin, and Lexington. But there was a sharp gradient to the rain, as amounts across the western/central Hill Country and the middle Texas coast generally stayed below a half inch.

NWS Estimate of Rain Falling between 7 am Thursday and 7 am Friday:

rain4cast0517
Data courtesy National Weather Service West Gulf River Forecast Center

The threat for additional widespread heavy rain and severe storms has come to an end. However, the last wave of low pressure associated Thursday’s storms was still located over northern Mexico, to the west of Laredo Friday morning. This system brought showers and thunderstorms to much of across South Texas Friday morning. Some of the showers have also extended northeast to the middle and upper Texas coast. Additional light to moderate rain showers and isolated thunderstorms look to continue across the middle Texas coast through early Friday evening. Rain amounts are forecast to remain below a half inch.

High resolution forecasts indicate this same wave of low pressure may spark the development of scattered thunderstorms along the Rio Grande mid to late Friday afternoon. Should storms develop, they’re predicted to track to the east and could spread to parts of the western Hill Country, to the west of Fredericksburg and Hondo late Friday afternoon and evening.  Some of these storms will be capable of producing small hail and gusty winds to near 50 mph. The storms are forecast to dissipate by 9 pm as the trough of low pressure exits off to the east.

Friday’s weather across the central/eastern Hill Country and Central Texas is forecast to be mostly sunny and dry.

Friday’s temperatures will be some of the “coolest” we are going to see for a while, with highs mostly in the low 80s.  Lows Saturday morning will range from the low 60s across the Hill Country, to the upper 60s across the costal plains.

A sunny, dry, and warmer weather pattern is forecast to take shape across the region Saturday when a ridge of high pressure spreads over Texas out of Mexico and the Desert Southwest. The ridge is forecast strengthen and remain over Texas through at least the middle of next week, causing continued sunny and warm weather. Temperatures and relative humidity levels are expected to steadily increase over the next few days.

  • High temperatures Saturday and Sunday are forecast to be in the low 90s.
  • Highs Monday through Wednesday are forecast to be in the mid-90s, with low 90s expected across the coastal plains.
  • Lows Sunday and Monday mornings are predicted to be near 68-72 degrees.
  • Lows Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday mornings are predicted to be in the low 70s across the Hill Country and in the mid-70s at most other locations.

The ridge over Texas is forecast to weaken some around the middle of next week as a large trough of low pressure moves into the Desert Southwest. The trough is predicted to lift northeast into the Plains states Thursday and Friday, pushing a weak cold front into Texas. The front is forecast to reach as far south as Central Texas next Thursday before turning back to the north on Friday. The front may cause the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Hill Country and parts of Central Texas late Wednesday into Thursday. National Weather Service forecasts call for totals of 0.5 to 1 inch across the northern Hill Country and the northern counties of Central Texas. Elsewhere, little rain is predicted.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Wednesday through 7 pm Friday:

rain4cast0517b  

Looking out into late next week and Memorial Day weekend, weather conditions are shaping up to be mostly sunny and warm. There will be a slight chance for scattered rain showers across the region through the period. Expect daily high temperatures to be in the low and mid-90s.

Have a great weekend!

Bob

A Chance for Severe Storms and Heavy Rain Thursday

Wednesday, May 15, 2024 3:56 PM

The weather pattern is forecast to become more unsettled late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a vigorous trough of low pressure begins to push east out of southern Arizona. At the same time, a warm front will begin to lift north from the Gulf of Mexico, allowing for a quick return of warm and very moist air. As moisture levels increase, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are predicted to develop and spread across the region Thursday morning.

While scattered showers will be possible Thursday morning, the main focus will be on Thursday afternoon, when scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the Hill Country as the dry line pushes east out of West Texas. Some of these storms will have the potential to become supercellular in structure, capable of producing very large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Forecasts call for the area of thunderstorms to gradually evolve into a large complex of showers and thunderstorms that will then spread east-southeast across the Hill Country and parts of Central Texas Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Due to Thursday’s unusually moist and unstable environment, some of the thunderstorms may be strong to severe. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes will all be possible.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of the Hill Country and Central Texas under a Slight Risk, or 2 out of 5 risk, for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms is forecast for the middle Texas coast.

severe0515

The showers and storms are predicted to exit the Hill Country Thursday evening, and by midnight across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast.

Additionally, there will be a potential for pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall from Thursday’s storms—primarily across the northern and eastern Hill Country, and also from the Austin area southeast to near La Grange and Columbus. Across this area, National Weather Service rainfall forecasts call for totals as high as 1-2 inches. Considerably lower totals are forecast for the western and central Hill Country.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Wednesday through 7 pm Friday:

rain4cast0515

Following Thursday’s storms, a dry weather pattern will take shape across the region. In fact, a summer-like heat dome is forecast to build north out of Mexico this weekend into next week, which is expected to cause sunny, dry, and unusually warm conditions. High temperatures next Monday through Friday are predicted to generally be in the mid-90s.

Bob

 

Widespread Rain and Thunderstorms Expected Sunday into Monday

Friday, May 10, 2024 2:26 PM

Severe storms spread southeast across the eastern Hill Country, from Enchanted Rock, through Johnson City, to San Marcos Thursday evening. Another area of severe storms tracked from eastern Williamson County through Lee County. These damaging storms produced very large hail of generally 1 to 3 inches in diameter. The largest hail appears to have fallen in and around Johnson City, in Blanco County, where 4 to 5 inch diameter hail was observed. The National Weather Service is confirming one of the hail stones in Johnson City measured 6.25 inches in diameter! This is just shy of the Texas record for largest hail stone which fell near Hondo in April, 2021. That stone measured 6.42 inches in diameter.

Quiet and more stable weather has developed across the region following the passage of a weak cold front late Thursday night. The air behind the front is noticeably drier and just slightly cooler. Another benefit to the front is that is has pushed out the haze and smoke that’s plagued our area throughout the week.

Friday’s weather will include a mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky and less hot temperatures. Dry weather is forecast at most locations. However, there will be a 20-30 percent chance for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region as a weak wave of low pressure pushes northeast over the area. The threat for any of these storms being severe will be quite low.

  • Friday’s high temperature will range from the upper 70s across the northern Hill Country, to low 80s across Central Texas, to the mid and upper 80s near the coast.
  • Lows Saturday morning will include the low 60s across the Hill Country, the low and mid-60s across Central Texas, and the upper 60s across the coastal plains.

A change in the weather is predicted to take place Saturday as trough of low pressure begins to push east out of the Arizona and New Mexico. Moisture is forecast to begin retuning off the Gulf of Mexico Saturday ahead of the upper trough. Expect a partly to mostly cloudy sky throughout the day. There will be a slight chance for a few scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms beginning Saturday afternoon, continuing through Saturday evening. Chances for any severe storms looks to be quite low.

Atmospheric conditions across the Hill Country, Central Texas, and the middle Texas coast ahead of the approaching trough are shaping to be quite favorable for the development of waves of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms beginning around midnight Saturday night, continuing through Sunday and Sunday night. The probability for rain will be near 80 percent. Some of the ingredients for severe thunderstorms will also be in place. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire region under a Marginal Risk, or 1 out of 5 risk, for severe thunderstorms. The primary severe weather threats will be large hail and damaging winds.

The waves of rain and thunderstorms are forecast to continue into Monday, then slowly taper off from west to east Monday afternoon as the upper trough exits our region. A weak cold front moving through the area Monday afternoon will bring in drier and slightly cooler air.

Rain amounts from Saturday night through Tuesday morning are forecast to generally average around an inch across the Hill Country, and between 1 and 2 inches at most other locations.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid from 7 pm Friday through 7 pm Monday:

rain4cast0510

Clouds are forecast to clear Monday night. This will be followed by a mostly sunny sky on Tuesday.

  • Highs Sunday are forecast to be in the upper 70s to low 80s.
  • Highs Monday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 80s.
  • Highs Tuesday are predicted to be in the upper 80s.

A chance for rain and scattered thunderstorms looks to return to the forecast next Wednesday and Thursday when a trough of low pressure dips south out of the southern Plains and moves across North Texas. The atmospheric setup with the approaching trough is looking somewhat favorable for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms across the Hill Country and parts of Central Texas both days. Rain amounts for both days are forecast to generally average between 1 and 1.5 inches.

Adding the forecast rainfall early in the week with the rain forecast Wednesday and Thursday, amounts of 1-2 inches are forecast across the Hill Country, with 2-4 inch totals at most other locations.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Friday through 7 pm Next Friday:

rain4cast0510b

A dry and warmer weather pattern is forecast to develop next Friday when a ridge of high pressure builds north out of Mexico. This pattern is predicted to continue next weekend and into the following week. Expect daily high temperatures to be in the low 90s.

Wishing everyone a Happy Mother’s Day Weekend.

Bob

Turning Much Warmer Tuesday and Wednesday. Cooler Late Week and into the Weekend

Monday, May 6, 2024 2:57 PM

Rounds of rain showers and thunderstorms since the middle of last week caused significant totals of rain across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions. According to LCRA’s Hydromet, the highest totals over the past 5 days occurred across the northern Hill Country across Mills, Lampasas, San Saba, and McCulloch Counties where amounts of 5-8 inches were recorded. Much of the region received between 1 and 2 inches of rain, with isolated totals of 3-4 inches. Interestingly, the heavy rains missed the middle Texas coast. Across Wharton and Matagorda Counties, totals over the past 5 days have only averaged around a quarter inch or less.

NWS Estimate of Rain Falling between 7 am Wednesday and 7 am Monday:

rain4cast0506
Data Courtesy NWS West Gulf River Forecast Center

The large trough of low pressure responsible for the recent stretch of wet and stormy weather across much of Texas has pushed off to the northeast. While this system has moved out, the base of a second trough of low pressure is currently moving from the Texas Panhandle region into the southern and central Plains states. This system will draw considerable clouds and moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in a mostly cloudy sky Monday afternoon through Monday night. This system may generate a few widely scattered rain showers or isolated thunderstorms across the region Monday afternoon, but no significant rain is expected. Monday’s temperature is forecast to warm to the low and mid-80s. Lows Tuesday morning will are forecast to be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

A dry and warmer weather pattern is forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure temporarily spreads north across Texas out of Mexico. Widespread low clouds Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will give way to mostly sunny conditions both afternoons. This ridge is expected to bring unseasonably warm temperatures to the entire region.

  • High temperatures Tuesday are forecast to be in the upper 80s across the Hill Country, and in the low 90s across Central Texas and the coastal region.
  • High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be in the low 90s region-wide.
  • Lows Wednesday and Thursday mornings will generally be in the low 70s.

Due note: with the wet ground and a moist flow off the Gulf, afternoon heat index readings across the region may approach 100-108 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday.

A change in the weather is forecast to take place Thursday when a fairly strong cold front (for May standards) pushes south out of North Texas. Moisture convergence along the front is expected to cause the development of a few scattered rain showers and thunderstorms along the cold front. The probability for rain will only be near 20-30 percent. Forecasts call for rain amounts to average less than a quarter inch, with most areas remaining dry. Expect a partly to mostly cloudy sky Thursday and mostly sunny sky Friday through Saturday. The front will bring somewhat cooler air into the area Thursday through Friday.

  • High temperatures Thursday will include the low 80s across the Hill Country, the mid-80s across Central Texas, and the low 90s across the coastal plains.
  • Lows Friday and Saturday mornings will include the upper 50s to 60 degrees across the Hill Country, the low 60s across Central Texas, and the mid to upper 60s coastal plains.
  • High temperatures Friday are forecast to be in the upper 70s across the Hill Country and Central Texas, and in the low 80s across the coastal plains.
  • High temperatures Saturday are predicted to be around 80-82 degrees.

A chance for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms will return the outlook for Sunday, and this chance for rain looks to continue through most of next week. Forecasts call for a broad trough of low pressure to develop across the Desert Southwest on Sunday, with the trough then lingering over the area into early next week. The trough is forecast to sink south into Mexico and approach Texas through the second half of next week. Moisture spreading north from the Gulf will cause a 30-40 percent chance for scattered rains across the area Sunday through Tuesday, with an even higher chance for rain expected next Wednesday through Friday, possibly continuing into the following weekend as well. This forecast solutions are still trying to sort this picture out, but the overall pattern is looking wet and unsettled.

High temperatures next week are forecast to generally be in the mid-80s.

Bob

 

Rounds of Rain and Strong to Severe Storms Will Continue through the Weekend

Friday, May 3, 2024 1:40 PM

Key Messages:

  • A wet and unsettled weather pattern will continue through the weekend
  • Thunderstorms developing across West Texas Friday afternoon may spread east across parts of the Hill Country and Central Texas Friday evening and Friday Night
  • Some of these storms could produce large hail and damaging winds
  • Confidence is increasing in more widespread, impactful rain and thunderstorms to spread southeast into the northern half of the Hill Country and Central Texas late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night
  • Late hail, damaging winds, and moderate to heavy rain will be possible
  • Periods of showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast across the entire region through Sunday afternoon
  • A generally dry weather pattern is forecast to take hold on Monday

Discussion

An active and potentially stormy weather pattern is expected to continue trough the weekend.

There will be a 20-30 percent chance for some widely scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region Friday afternoon. Expect high temperatures to generally be in the low and mid-80s.

Forecasters will be keeping a close watch across West Texas late this afternoon as atmospheric conditions will be favorable for thunderstorms to develop along the West Texas dry line. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop and quickly become severe over the area from southeast of Lubbock, to west of San Angelo, to near Del Rio. Storm Prediction Center forecasters state these storms will have the potential to produce large to giant size hail (max size 3-4+ inches in diameter), a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts across the Texas South Plains extending southeastward into portions of the Big Country Friday evening.

High resolution forecasts call for the area of storms to spread east across the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country regions Friday evening. Some of the storms could even reach the Austin and Interstate 35 corridor sometime late Friday evening and toward midnight. The primary severe weather threats will primarily be large hail, damaging downburst winds, and locally heavy rain. The thunderstorms activity is expected to diminish shortly after midnight.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Hill Country under a Slight Risk, or 2 out of 5 risk, for severe thunderstorms through Friday Night. The Intestate 35 corridor has been placed under a 1 out 5 risk for severe thunderstorms.

severe0503

Rainfall from Friday evening’s storms developing storms is forecast to average between 0.5 and 1 inch, with isolated totals of 1-2 inches possible.

Saturday

Several of the forecast solutions are keying in on a trough of low pressure that will be moving into West Texas Saturday afternoon. The solutions call for a large area of rain showers and thunderstorms to develop across Northwest and West Central West Texas Saturday afternoon. This activity is then predicted to spread east-southeast across the northern half of the Hill Country and the northern half of Central Texas, including the Austin area, Saturday evening. Some of the rain and storms may spread further south into the Hill Country and Central Texas late Saturday evening into Saturday night. Once again, some of these storms could be severe, with the primary severe weather threats being large hail, damaging winds and locally heavy rain. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Hill Country and the I-35 corridor under a Marginal, or 1 out or 5 risk, for severe storms through Saturday night. (See the severe weather outlook map for Saturday above)

Rain amounts Saturday through Sunday morning are forecast to generally average between 1 and 2 inches across the northern half of the Hill Country and Central Texas. For areas to the south, totals of around a half inch are forecast.

Sunday

Forecasts call for additional waves of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms to spread across the region Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon. The probability for rain will be near 50-60 percent. Expect rain amounts to average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches. The rain and thunderstorms are forecast to taper off Sunday evening.

Rain amounts between Friday evening and Monday evening are forecast to average between 1 and 4 inches across the northern Hill Country, and between 1 and 2 inches for the northern counties of Central Texas, including Austin. For areas to the south, rain amounts will average between 0.25 and 1 inch.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Friday through 7 pm Monday:

rain4cast0503

Next Week

The recent wet weather pattern is predicted to diminish by Monday as a ridge of high pressure spreads over Texas out of Mexico. A partly to mostly cloudy sky is forecast Monday. Tuesday through Thursday will see a mostly sunny sky.  High temperatures next Tuesday through Thursday are forecast to generally be in the low to mid-90s. Highs are forecast to lower back to the mid-90s next Friday when a “cold” front sinks south across the area.

Bob

 

Severe Storms and Heavy Rain Possible Wednesday Afternoon and Wednesday Night

Wednesday, May 1, 2024 12:49 PM

Key Messages

  • Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will be possible across the region this afternoon through tonight
  • Large hail (possibly greater than 2 inches in diameter) and damaging winds will be the primary severe weather threats
  • There will be a low end chance for a couple of isolated tornadoes
  • Locally heavy rainfall and flooding possible—primarily across the eastern Hill Country and Central Texas regions. Here, widespread totals of 1-3 inches are forecast, with isolated totals of 3-5 inches possible
  • The National Weather Service has posted a Flood Watch for the eastern Hill Country and all of Central Texas from 3 pm Wednesday through Thursday morning

Discussion

The weather pattern is forecast to become quite active later this afternoon and overnight as an approaching trough of low pressure causes a couple of rounds or rain showers and organized thunderstorms. A mid-morning analysis of the atmosphere across the Hill Country and Central Texas showed an unusually moist and potentially quite unstable situation. Scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms are predicted to form in this environment as the trough approaches our area from the west. Some the storms may organize into supercell thunderstorms—possibly causing large to very large hail and damaging winds. In addition, a couple of isolated tornadoes will also be possible.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed our entire region, with the exception of Matagorda County, under a Slight Risk, or a 2 out of 5 risk, for severe thunderstorms through Wednesday night. Parts of the western and northern Hill Country have been placed under an Enhanced Risk, or a 3 out of 5 risk, for severe thunderstorms. (More on this particular area coming up).

severe0501

Developing showers and storms are forecast to generally spread from south to north across the area this afternoon and evening.

Today’s rain and storms will also have the potential to produce heavy rain—especially if they slow down or happen to train over a particular area. A very moist, tropical air mass is in place. The heavy rains could possibly cause excessive runoff, resulting in flooding of creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

Due to the threat for heavy rain and possible flooding, the National Weather Service has posted a Flood Watch for the eastern Hill Country and all of Central Texas (including the Austin metro) from 3 pm Wednesday through 7 am Thursday.

rain4cast0501b

Forecasters are also closely monitoring West Texas, where a large area of thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this afternoon along the dry line over the area between Midland and Del Rio. High-resolution forecasts call for the area of storms to organize into large complex strong to severe thunderstorms that will track east across the Concho Valley and western Hill Country between about 9 pm and midnight. The complex of storms is predicted to continue marching east across the Hill Country and into Central Texas between midnight and 6 am Thursday. This line of storms will also have the potential to produce large hail, damaging winds, considerable lightning, and heavy rain. The rain and storms are forecast to move off to the east by around or shortly after sunrise Thursday morning.

Rain totals this afternoon through Thursday morning are forecast call to generally average between 1 and 3 inches, with isolated totals to near 5 inches possible.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 am Wednesday through 7 am Thursday:

rain4cast0501

A break from the rain is forecast Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon. However, there will be a slight chance for additional showers and thunderstorms to spread into the Hill Country and parts of Central Texas Thursday evening.

Bob

Another Chance for Rain and Storms Forecast Wednesday, Continuing through the Weekend

Monday, April 29, 2024 3:41 PM

Rain showers and thunderstorms spread across the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor over the weekend. A few of the storms produced damaging winds and some small hail. Rainfall generally averaged around a half inch, with several isolated totals just over an inch. Southeast of Austin, totals between Bastrop and Bay City were considerably lower, averaging around a tenth of an inch or less. It’s interesting to note an area of heavy, persistent rain developed across the northern counties of Southeast Texas late Sunday night. Totals of 7 to near 12 inches of rain fell over the area between College Station, Huntsville, and Lake Livingston.

NWS Estimate of Rain Falling Between 7 am Friday and 7 am Monday:

rain4cast0429b
Map Courtesy NOAA’s West Gulf River Forecast Center

A break from the wet and unsettled weather pattern is forecast to take place Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening as a weak ridge of high pressure temporarily sets up across Texas. Southeasterly breezes off the Gulf of Mexico are pulling a very moist air mass inland from the Gulf of Mexico, and this is leading to warm and very humid weather conditions. Expect a mostly sunny sky Monday afternoon. Low clouds look to spread across the area Monday night into Tuesday morning. In fact, some patchy will also be possible. The sky should become mostly sunny Tuesday afternoon.

  • Monday’s temperature is predicted to reach the mid and upper 80s.
  • Lows Tuesday morning are forecast to be in the mid and upper 60s.
  • High temperatures Tuesday are forecast to be in the upper 80s to 90 degrees.
  • Lows Wednesday morning are predicted to be around 70-72 degrees.

A chance for scattered afternoon and evening rain showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast Wednesday when a small trough of low pressure is forecast to push east out of Far West Texas. This system is expected to cause thunderstorm development along the dry line across West Texas Wednesday afternoon. These developing thunderstorms are forecast to spread east across the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country regions late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. Some of these thunderstorms may be strong to severe, capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. The probability for rain and storms across the Hill Country will be near 40 percent late Wednesday afternoon and evening. At the same time, isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are also forecast to develop across Central Texas and the coastal plains region Wednesday afternoon and evening as the wave of low pressure moves over the area. The probability for rain will also be near 40 percent. Rain amounts Wednesday through Wednesday evening are predicted to average around a quarter inch or less. Wednesday’s temperature should climb to the low and mid-80s.

The most favorable period for rain showers and thunderstorms is expected to happen Thursday through Thursday night when a large trough of low pressure dips southeast into North Texas out of the southern Rockies. Forecasts call for an area of showers and thunderstorms to develop across the Concho Valley and Northwest Texas early Thursday afternoon. The area of rain and storms is expected to expand in coverage and intensity as it pushes east into Central Texas and the coastal plains regions late Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. Some of these storms may be strong to severe. The probability for rain will around 60-70 percent Thursday and Thursday night. The precipitation is forecast to exit to the east and southeast Friday morning as a cold front brings in drier and just slightly cooler air.

Rainfall forecasts through early Friday morning call for totals to generally average between 0.5 and 1 inch, with isolated totals to near 2 inches possible.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Monday through 7 pm Friday:

rain4cast0429

Just a slight chance for rain is forecast Friday as the weak cold front pushes south into the Gulf of Mexico. Expect a partly cloudy sky with highs in the low 80s.

The outlook for the upcoming weekend calls for a partly cloudy sky and 30 percent chance for scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms both days. Rain amounts are forecast to average around a quarter inch. Warm and humid air looks to return in earnest this weekend. Expect high temperatures in the low and mid-80s, with lows in the upper 60s.

The outlook for next week calls for generally dry weather and noticeably warmer temperatures as a ridge of high pressure builds north across Texas. While a few showers can’t be ruled out, no widespread or heavy rain is anticipated. Daily high temperatures look to be around 90 degrees. Highs in the low 90s will be possible next Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows are forecast to be in the low 70s.

Bob

 

Rounds of Rain and Thunderstorms Forecast through Late Next Week

Friday, April 26, 2024 2:33 PM

We are quickly moving into an active weather pattern that is expected to bring rounds of rain showers and thunderstorms to much of the Hill Country, Central Texas, and coastal regions for the next several days. Each of the periods of rain and thunderstorms will offer some potential for severe weather along with locally heavy rain. Forecasts are indicating this active pattern will last well into the month of May as more waves of low pressure approach from the west.

Friday

The first round of rain and thunderstorms developed early Friday morning across the Concho Valley ahead of a weak trough of low pressure that was pushing east out of West Texas. This area of thunderstorms tracked northeast across the northern Hill Country between Mason, Burnet, and Lampasas ands south to the Austin area Friday morning. There were radar indications the storms may have produced some large hail and strong winds between Burnet, Lampasas, and Temple. The storms are forecast to continue across this general area through mid-afternoon, then push northeast into East and Northeast Texas late Friday afternoon.

For Friday afternoon and Friday night, expect a mostly cloudy sky and breezy conditions. A fairly strong stable layer in lower atmosphere should limit the development of scattered shower and thunderstorm development. Forecasters will be closely watching for possible thunderstorm development mid to late afternoon along the Dry Line across the Big Country and northern Hill Country regions. The probability for thunderstorm development will only be 20 percent. However, any storms which develop will likely become severe. Expect southerly winds at 10-20 mph, with occasional gusts to 35 mph. Friday’s high temperature will be in the low 80s.

Saturday through Sunday

A moist and fairly unstable atmosphere is predicted to be in place across the region Saturday. However, a stable layer in the atmosphere is expected to limit thunderstorm development at most locations. Should a break in this stable layer develop, strong to severe thunderstorms will likely develop. The probability for rain and storms will only be near 20 percent. Morning clouds will give way to partly cloudy and windy conditions in the afternoon. Expect southerly winds at 15-25 mph, with gusts up to 40/45 mph. Saturday’s temperature is forecast to reach the low and mid-80s.

Confidence is quite high a large area of rain and thunderstorms will spread across the region Saturday night into Sunday morning as a strong wave of low pressure pushes east out of West Texas and New Mexico. Forecasts call for an area of thunderstorms to develop across western Texas Saturday evening, with the activity eventually merging into a broad line of showers and strong to severe thunderstorms around or after midnight. The rain and storms are predicted to spread east across the Hill Country after midnight Saturday night, moving into the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor around sunrise Sunday morning. The area of rain and storms should spread east across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. Some of storms may be severe. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Hill Country under a Slight Risk, or 2 out of 5 risk, for severe thunderstorms through daybreak Sunday. The primary severe weather threats will be large hail and damaging winds.

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The rain is expected to taper off across the Hill Country and I-35 corridor by Sunday afternoon, and across the rest of the region by Sunday evening. Lingering instability will cause a slight chance for a few spotty showers behind the main line. Rain amounts through Sunday evening are forecast to average around 1-1.5 inches across much of the area. Lower totals are forecast for areas south of Interstate 10.

Monday through Late Next Week

Periods of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast through late next week as additional small waves of low pressure move across Texas out of Mexico and the Desert Southwest. Some of these storms may be strong to severe.

Monday through Wednesday, the probability for rain looks to be around 30-40 percent. Rain amounts each day are predicted to average around a quarter inch. Forecasts point to an increased chance for rain and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday as a weak cold front pushes south into the area. As of now, widespread rain amounts of 1-1.5 inches are forecast. High temperatures next week are forecast to remain mostly in the low and mid-80s.

The National Weather Service’s total rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates much of the area could see between 1 and 3 inches, with even higher totals possible across the northern Hill Country.

NWS Total Rain Forecast for Period through 7 pm Friday, May 3rd:

rain4cast0426

Looking out beyond late next week, forecasts show a chance for rain remaining in the forecast for the week of May 6th.

Bob