Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

The unsettled, wet weather pattern which has been in place since Monday is winding down. While a few isolated showers and thunderstorms will still be possible Friday and Saturday afternoons, the threat for heavy rain and severe storms appears to be over. Mother’s Day weekend weather is actually expected to be fantastic, with a mostly sunny sky.

The large trough of low pressure responsible for the severe storms and heavy rain earlier this week is now located northeast of our area, across the Arklatex. However, forecasts call for the trough to sink to the southeast over  the next couple of days, reaching a position over the lower Mississippi Valley on Monday. Mid-level moisture wrapping around the western, or backside of the trough is forecast to spread south across Texas Friday afternoon and again on Saturday.

This moisture, combined with warming temperatures and weak atmospheric lift may spark the development of a few isolated rain showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and again Saturday afternoon. The probability for rain for any given location will only be 20 percent and rain amounts should average less than a tenth of an inch. Atmospheric parameters suggest no strong or severe thunderstorms. The small chance for rain will diminish Sunday as moisture from the upper trough shifts east of our region.

Comfortable temperatures are predicted through the weekend as the upper trough causes northerly breezes with speeds of 10-15 mph across the area. Cool readings into the 50s are forecast Saturday and Sunday nights. Enjoy these mild readings as long-range forecasts suggest these will likely be the last 50 degree temperatures our region will see until next fall.

• High temperatures Friday through Sunday are predicted to be in the upper 70s to low 80s
• Low temperatures Saturday, Sunday, and Monday mornings will include the low and mid-50s across the Hill Country, the mid and upper 50s across Central Texas, and the upper 50s to 60 degrees across the coastal plains

An abrupt shift to a summer-like weather pattern is forecast to take place Monday and continue through all of next week as a near summer-like ridge of high pressure spreads across Texas while the Louisiana trough shifts to the East Coast. Southerly surface winds will return Monday, bringing warmer and more humid air north from the Gulf.

No doubt about it, the big story next for next week will be the upward surge in both daytime and nighttime temperatures. Readings more typical of July are forecast throughout the week as sinking air under the ridge causes surface temperatures to heat up significantly. Expect a sunny sky and dry weather.

• High temperatures Monday are forecast to be near 88-90 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the mid-80s towards the coast
• High temperatures Tuesday will include the mid to upper 90s across the Hill Country, the mid-90s across Central Texas, and near 90 degrees towards the coast
• High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be near 98-100 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and the low to mid-90s across the coastal plains
• High temperatures Thursday and Friday are predicted to be in the upper 90s across the Hill Country, the mid to upper 90s across Central Texas and the low 90s across the coastal plains
• Daily low temperatures throughout next week are forecast to be around 70 degrees

Isolated to scattered rain showers and slightly lower temperatures are forecast next weekend, continuing into the following week as the center of ridge of high pressure slides east of Texas. At the same time, a trough of low pressure is forecast to slowly track to the southern Rockies and southern Plains. High temperatures are predicted to continue in the low to mid-90s.

The May Full Moon

This month’s full moon – called the Flower Moon – will occur at 11:56 am  CDT on Monday, May 12^th. While the moon won’t technically be full until Monday, the moon will still appear very bright and nearly full Saturday night and Sunday night. Interestingly, Monday’s full moon will be a micromoon, meaning the moon will be at its furthest point in orbit around the Earth.

May’s Flower Moon gets its name from the Algonquin people who recognized the blooming of wildflowers and garden flowers in May. The light of the full moon tends to give the flowers an enchanting appearance.

Have a great Mother’s Day weekend!

Bob

An wet and unsettled weather pattern is forecast through Thursday as a large area of low pressure slowly lifts to the north out of the Desert Southwest. Out ahead of the primary trough Monday, a small wave of low pressure has been tracking north across Central Texas. This system caused the development of rain showers and thunderstorms across a large part of Central Texas around midday. Some of the thunderstorms produced large hail across parts of Bastrop and Williamson Counties. Meanwhile, a second complex of rain and thunderstorms has been moving from west to east across North Texas. Some of this activity has extended as far south as Abilene and Brownwood.

This afternoon through Monday night, additional showers and scattered thunderstorms can be expected across the entire region as the atmosphere grows increasingly moist and unstable in advance of the trough moving out of New Mexico. The probability for occasional rain and thunderstorms Monday afternoon will be near 50 percent.

Attention will turn to Monday evening when large clusters of thunderstorms are forecast to develop across West Texas and the Rio Grande Plains. The area of thunderstorms are predicted to move to the east and spread across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Monday evening into Monday night. Forecasts then call for a second round of scattered thunderstorms to develop across the western Hill Country along a Pacific cold front before daybreak Tuesday. This area of thunderstorms is predicted to spread east across the Hill Country, Central Texas, and coastal regions Monday morning into Monday afternoon.

Moderate to locally strong atmospheric instability is forecast to be in place this afternoon, tonight, and Tuesday. Because of this there will be a good potential for some of the storms to become strong to severe. Large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe weather threats. However, a couple of isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Hill Country, Central Texas, and coastal regions under a Slight Risk, or 2 out of 5 risk, for severe thunderstorms this afternoon, tonight, and Tuesday.

The rain and thunderstorms spreading across the area Monday afternoon through Tuesday are expected to cause moderate to locally heavy rain and at least some risk for flash flooding. Rain amounts through Tuesday evening are forecast to generally average between 1 and 2 inches, along with isolated heavier totals.

The area of rain and thunderstorms is predicted to push east of our region Tuesday evening, with a break in the rain developing Tuesday evening and Tuesday night.

For Wednesday, there will be a 20-30 percent chance for more scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions. Across the coastal region, a good chance for rain showers and thunderstorms looks to continue as Tuesday’s cold front slows down and nearly stalls over the area. The probability for rain will be near 80 percent.

Thursday will see a 30-40 percent chance for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms across the region as one final wave of low pressure moves across Texas. Rain amounts are not expected to be all that heavy.

Rain amounts through Thursday are forecast generally average between 1 and 2 inches, with the majority of the rain falling Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm Thursday:

Mostly sunny and dry weather is forecast Friday and through the upcoming weekend. Expect highs in the low and mid-80s, with lows in the low 60s.

The outlook for next week calls for dry conditions and warmer temperatures. Expect highs to warm into the low to mid-90s by the middle of next week.

Bob

We’re looking at an active afternoon and evening of weather across the region, with one of the highest potentials for widespread severe weather we’ve seen in quite a while. Everyone should be weather aware today, and have multiple paths to receive warnings from the National Weather Service and local media.

Friday’s analysis showed a moist and moderately unstable air mass in place across Central and South Texas. Warming temperatures this afternoon along with a leftover boundary from Thursday’s storms are expected to help initiate the development of showers and thunderstorms across the area by early afternoon. In addition, a cold front currently stretching across North and Northwest Texas is forecast to push southeast and move across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions this afternoon and evening, and the coastal region toward midnight Friday night. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop ahead of and along the cold front as it spreads to the south.

Many of today’s storms are forecast to quickly become strong to severe. The stronger storms may produce severe hail to near 3 inches in diameter and strong wind gusts to near 70 mph. In addition, a couple of isolated tornadoes cannot be totally ruled out.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of the area under an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon through Friday night. This is a 3 out of 5 risk; something we don’t see all that often in Central Texas.

A fairly widespread coverage of rain is forecast Friday afternoon into Friday night. Given the slow moving nature of the frontal boundary along with the potential for storms and storm clusters to repeatedly move over the same area, significant totals of rain will be possible. The National Weather Service’s rainfall forecast calls for widespread totals of 1-2 inches across the region. Several pockets of 2-3 inch totals will be possible.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Friday through 7 am Sunday:

Forecasts call for the rains to taper off across the Hill Country by about midnight Friday night and across Central Texas by about 3 am Saturday. The rain and storms are forecast to taper off across the coastal region shortly after sunrise Saturday.

Cooler, sunny, and dry weather is forecast Saturday through Sunday as a high pressure builds over Texas behind the cold front.

• High temperatures Saturday and Sunday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 70s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and be around 80 degrees towards the coast
• Lows Saturday morning will range from the upper 50s across the Hill Country, to the mid-60s towards the coast
• Lows Sunday mornings will include the upper 40s to low 50s across the Hill Country, the low and mid-50s across Central Texas, and the upper 50s across the coastal area
• Lows Monday morning will generally be in the upper 50s to low 60s

Another period of rain and thunderstorms is forecast to take shape next Tuesday through Thursday when a trough of low pressure tracks from the Four Corners region on Monday to the southern Plains states on Wednesday. Several waves of low pressure are predicted to spread east across Texas ahead of the parent trough, producing rounds of rain showers and thunderstorms. As of now, Tuesday is expected to have the highest potential for severe thunderstorms as the dry line pushes east out of West Texas.

This period could potentially be fairly wet. Forecasts are calling for widespread totals of 1-3 inches over the area between Tuesday and late Thursday.

Here’s a look at the National Weather Service’s forecast for rainfall through 7 pm next Friday, which incorporates Friday’s rain together with next week’s rain.

High temperatures next week are forecast to generally be in the low and mid-80s.

Dry weather is forecast next Friday, continuing into next weekend.

Have a good weekend!

Bob

The National Weather Service has posted a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the a portion of the Hill Country and Central Texas until 9 pm Thursday evening. The watch includes the Travis County/Austin metro area.

National Weather Service forecasters are closely monitoring the Hill Country and Central Texas regions this afternoon where the atmosphere has become quite moist and fairly unstable. With the temperature already approaching 90 degrees, isolated but intense thunderstorms are expected to develop across the area.

Today’s primary severe weather threats will include:

• Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter
• Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are  favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.

Developing storms this afternoon and evening are forecast to generally move from west to east.

The National Weather Service shows the window for severe storms across the watch area to generally be from 3  pm until 9 pm. Areas further to the south could see isolated storm in the window of 5 pm and 11 pm.

Rain from the isolated thunderstorms is forecast to average around a half inch, with isolated totals of 1-2 inches possible.

Bob

We’ll be looking at a fairly typical late April/early May weather pattern this week with chances for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms for the middle and latter parts of the week, continuing through the weekend. Warm and humid conditions will be in place throughout the week.

A partly to mostly cloudy sky will be in place Monday afternoon as considerable moisture spreads inland from the Gulf. The atmosphere will be too stable to allow for the development of showers and thunderstorms. Expect high temperatures to generally be in the mid-80s.

Forecasters are closely monitoring the area along and just to the west of the Rio Grande river where the dry line is in place. High resolution forecasts call for scattered thunderstorms to develop along the dry line between Del Rio and Eagle Pass late this afternoon, with the thunderstorms moving to the east-northeast. Should these storms hold together, there is 20-30 percent chance they could spread east across the Edwards Plateau and over parts of the Hill Country as far east as Fredericksburg Monday evening. Some of these storms could be strong to severe. All of the thunderstorms are forecast to diminish by late Monday evening.

Tuesday’s weather is forecast to be very similar to Monday. Widespread morning clouds should give way to a partly to mostly cloudy sky in the afternoon. Expect high temperatures again to be in the upper 80s. Forecasts indicate a few scattered thunderstorms may develop along the dry line out close to the Rio Grande Tuesday afternoon, but these storms are expected to diminish before reaching the Hill Country. A separate area of thunderstorms is predicted to develop across West Texas Tuesday evening. This area of storms is forecast to move east-southeast and could move across the northern Hill Country after midnight Tuesday night. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, producing damaging winds and large hail. Rain amounts of 0.25-0.5 inches will be possible.

The most favorable period for rain and thunderstorms this week is forecast to occur Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night when a trough of low pressure tracks from New Mexico, northeast across the Texas Panhandle. The trough is expected to push the dry line out of West Texas and into the Hill Country by Wednesday afternoon. Forecasts call for showers and scattered thunderstorms to develop along the dry line and spread to the east Wednesday afternoon and evening. In addition, scattered air mass thunderstorms will be possible out ahead of the dry line Wednesday as the atmosphere becomes increasingly unstable.

The probability for rain and thunderstorms Wednesday is forecast to be near 70-80 percent across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, but only near 20 percent near the coast. The probability for rain will decrease to around 40 percent across the Hill Country and Central Texas Wednesday evening. Towards the coast, the chance for rain and storms will increase to 40 percent Wednesday evening.

Rain amounts Wednesday through Wednesday night are predicted to average around a half inch across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and around a quarter inch across the coastal plains. Isolated heavier totals will be possible—especially across the northern counties of Central Texas and the Hill Country.

Thursday’s weather is shaping up to be mostly sunny and warm. There will be just a 20 percent chance for a few scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Expect high temperatures to be around 90 degrees.

The chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase across the region Friday and continue through the weekend as a Pacific cold front sinks to the south and pulls up stationary along the Gulf coast. At the same time, some weak disturbances are forecast to spread over Texas out of northern Mexico during the same period. There may be a threat for some strong to severe storms on Friday. Forecasts call for a 50 percent chance for rain Friday and Friday night, near 40 percent for Saturday and 30 percent for Sunday. Rain amounts Friday through Sunday evening are forecast to generally average between 0.5 and 1 inch across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and around a half inch across the coastal plains. Isolated heavier totals will be possible.

High temperatures Friday and through the weekend are predicted to be in the mid-80s.

National Weather Service Cumulative rain totals over the next seven days call for amounts of 0.5-1.5 inches across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and close to a half inch across the middle Texas coast.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 6 pm Monday through 6 pm Next Monday:

Looking into next week, forecasts call for an unsettled weather pattern to continue. An active dry line is expected the first half of the week, which could bring rounds of strong to severe storms. A more widespread rain with scattered thunderstorms is expected for the second half of next week. High temperatures next week are forecast to be mostly in the mid-80s.

Have a good week!

Bob

This week’s unsettled pattern allowed beneficial rain showers and scattered thunderstorms to develop and spread across the region. Totals since Sunday have generally averaged between 0.5 and 1 inch. However, locations around Lake Brownwood, across northern Fayette County, and the immediate middle Texas coast received substantially higher totals. According to LCRA’s Hydromet, this week’s greatest rainfall accumulation occurred about 5 miles northeast of La Grange, where a training thunderstorm cell produced a total of 5.11 inches!

Friday will offer one more opportunity for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the area before a drier and more stable weather pattern takes hold for the weekend. Friday’s weather will be dominated by a very moist and slightly unstable air mass. However, unlike the pattern of the past couple of days, there doesn’t appear to be a strong trigger for rain development. As a result, most areas will see just a 20-30 percent for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms through late afternoon. For areas that do happen to see rain, totals are forecast to average less than a tenth of an inch. Friday’s sky will likely feature plenty of clouds along with some occasional peeks of sunshine. High temperatures are predicted to be in the mid-80s. The sky will be mostly cloudy Friday night. Lows Saturday morning are forecast to be in the mid and upper 60s.

A dry and quiet weather pattern is forecast to develop Saturday and continue through Monday as a stable ridge of high pressure spreads over Texas out of Mexico. This weekend, expect widespread nighttime and morning low clouds, followed by mostly sunny sky conditions in the afternoon. The sky is forecast to stay mostly cloudy on Monday. It will breezy through Monday, with southerly winds in the range of 10-15 mph, with occasional gusts to 20/25 mph.

• High temperatures Saturday are forecast to generally be in the mid-80s
• High temperatures Sunday and Monday are predicted to be near 88-90 degrees
• Lows will range from the mid-60s across the Hill Country, to around 70 degrees across the coastal plains

An unsettled weather pattern looks to return to the region beginning Tuesday. Forecasts call for another Pacific trough of low pressure to settle into the southwestern U.S. early next week, then lift northeast to the southern Plains late in the week. The trough will help push a weak cold front into North  Texas around Wednesday, with the front sinking south into Central and South Texas Thursday and Friday.

The combination of small disturbances spreading east around the southwestern trough, an energized West Texas dry line, and the advancing cold front is expected to cause the development of scattered rain showers and thunderstorms starting Tuesday afternoon. Chances for rain and thunderstorms look to continue Wednesday through Friday, and possibly into next weekend as well. As of now, the most favorable period for rain is shaping up to be Wednesday into Wednesday night.  Some strong to severe storms may be possible the second half of next week.

Rain forecasts for next week call for the highest totals of rain to occur across North and Northwest Texas, extending south into the Hill Country and parts of Central Texas. Here, totals of 1-1.5 inches are forecast. Considerably lower totals are forecast for areas south of Interstate 10.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm Next Friday, 5/2:

High temperatures next week are forecast to generally be in the mid and upper 80s. Lows are predicted to be in the 60s.

Looking out a little further into the week of May 5^th, long-range forecasts call for more wet and unsettled weather across the region.

Have a great weekend!

Bob

This weekend’s trough of low pressure and cold front brought some much needed rain to the region. Totals were highest across the northern Hill Country, where amounts of 2-3 inches were recorded to the north and northwest of Lake Brownwood. The western half of the Hill Country received between 1 and 1.5 inches, while the eastern half saw totals closer to a half inch. Amounts were much lower across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast, where most totals were under a quarter inch.

Some pockets of heavy rain developed Monday morning along the middle Texas coast in the vicinity of the stalled out cold front. LCRA’s gauge located near Sargent, in southeastern Matagorda County, recorded 4.21 inches, while LCRA’s gauge near the town of Matagorda, in southern Matagorda County, recorded 3.01 inches. (as of 2:30 pm)

We’re looking at an unsettled weather pattern this week as a series of low pressure troughs push east out of Mexico and track across Texas. This development is something we haven’t seen much of this spring, and should lead to periods of rain and thunderstorms across our region. Unfortunately, the highest totals of rain are expected to be across the northern and eastern parts of the state.

Monday’s weather will be sunny and warm for the majority of the region. However, there will be a 40-50 percent chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms for the coastal plains Monday afternoon and Monday evening, for the area to the south of U.S. Highway 59. Additional totals of 0.5 t0 1 inch will be possible. The cold front along the coast is predicted to lift back to the north Monday night, allowing warm and more humid air to spread back over the area.

• High temperatures Monday are forecast to generally be in the low and mid-80s, with some upper 80s possible across parts of Central Texas
• Lows Tuesday morning will range from the low 60s across the Hill Country, to the upper 60s near the coast

Widespread low clouds and even some patchy fog are forecast to develop Monday night, continuing through Tuesday morning. A partly cloudy sky is expected Tuesday afternoon. Due to increasing moisture and a slightly unstable air mass, a few scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening. Forecasts point to the possible development of scattered thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening across West Texas, along the dry line. Should thunderstorms develop, the atmospheric setup will allow some of these storms to become strong to severe. High resolution forecasts call for the developing storms to track to the east, possibly  spreading over parts of the Hill Country and Central Texas Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Some of these storms may be strong to severe. Rain amounts from this wave of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to generally average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches.

The highest chance for rain and scattered thunderstorms this week is expected to occur Wednesday and again on Thursday as two separate waves of low pressure track east across North Texas. On Wednesday, showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage in the afternoon and continue into Wednesday evening. The probability for rain will be near 50 percent. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage again Thursday afternoon and continue Thursday night into Friday as the second wave of low pressure moves over the area. The probability for rain will be near 50 percent. The chance for rain looks to decrease Friday afternoon into Friday night. Rain amounts Thursday through Friday are forecast to average around a quarter inch, with isolated heavier totals.

A breakdown of this week’s forecasted rain, from the National Weather Service:

For the weekend, there will be a slight chance for a few showers on Saturday. Otherwise, the weekend is expected to be partly cloudy and warm, with highs around 88-90 degrees.

Cumulative rain totals through Saturday evening call for widespread totals between 0.25 and 0.5 inches, with isolated heavier totals.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm Saturday:

Looking ahead to next week, forecast solutions call for generally dry and warm weather next Monday and Tuesday, followed by a chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms next Wednesday through Friday as a weak cold front sinks to the south and stalls across Central Texas. High temperatures next week are forecast to hold in the mid and upper 80s.

Have a great week!

Bob

The persistent warm and dry weather pattern we’ve seen for most of April will finally begin to change this weekend and next week as an approaching trough of low pressure brings our region a  chance for rain and scattered thunderstorms. This will be followed by additional chances for rain and storms next Tuesday through Friday. Parts of the Hill Country are forecast to receive between 1 and 2 inches of rain over the next seven days.

Friday’s weather is expected to be warm and breezy, with a partly to mostly cloudy sky. A strong pressure gradient across the state is expected to cause strong southerly winds with speeds of 10-20 mph and occasional gusts to 35 mph. It will be a warm day,  with the temperature warming up to 88-90 degrees.

There will be a slight chance for the development of some scattered thunderstorms across the Hill Country region late Friday night as a small wave of low pressure pushes east out of West Texas. High resolution forecasts call for scattered thunderstorms to develop across The Concho Valley region late Friday evening, with the storms slowly pushing east-northeast across the Hill Country after midnight and toward daybreak on Saturday.  There remains some uncertainty as to the amount of thunderstorm coverage across the Hill Country late Friday night as the storms will be moving into a fairly stable atmosphere. The probability for storms across the Hill Country late Friday night will be near 30 percent. Should the storms survive, they are predicted to remain sub-severe. For Central Texas and the middle Texas coast, breezy and warm conditions are forecast overnight, with lows near 70 degrees.

There will be a 30-40 percent  chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon as another wave of low pressure begins to push east out of West Texas. At the same time, the atmosphere over the region is predicted to become quite moist and less stable. There will be a small chance an isolated thunderstorms or two across the Hill Country could become strong to severe Saturday afternoon. Severe weather threats will include large hail and damaging winds. Saturday’s weather will be mostly cloudy, breezy, and warm. Look for winds to gust to near 30 mph with high temperatures generally in the mid-80s.

The most favorable period for rain showers and thunderstorms over the weekend is predicted to occur Saturday night into Easter Sunday when a large trough of low pressure tracks northeast across the Texas Panhandle, pushing a Pacific cold front southeast into the Hill Country and Central Texas. Forecasts call for an area of showers and thunderstorms to develop across the Concho Valley and Big Country regions in advance of and along the cold front Saturday night.

The area of rain and storms is predicted to spread into Hill Country by about midnight Saturday night, with the area of rain continuing to spread to the east and southeast. Atmospheric condition may support some of the thunderstorms to be strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area west of Interstate 35 under a Slight Risk, or a 2 out of 5 risk, for severe thunderstorms through 7 am Sunday. The primary severe weather threats will be large hail and damaging winds. The rain activity is predicted to taper off from west to east Sunday morning. Expect a partly cloudy sky Sunday afternoon.

The area of rain and thunderstorms is forecast to shift to the Interstate 35 corridor and Central Texas near, or just after sunrise Sunday morning. The area of thunderstorms is forecast to be weakening as it exits the Hill Country and spread into Central Texas. The threat for severe storms is expected to be fairly low. The rain and thunderstorm activity is forecast to taper off from northwest to southeast Sunday morning as the cold front moves to the southeast. Expect a partly cloudy sky Sunday afternoon.

For the middle Texas coast, showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to spread into the area Sunday morning and continue Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening as the cold front slows down and stalls near the coast. The probability for rain will be near 70 percent, decreasing to 50 percent Sunday night.

High temperatures Easter Sunday are forecast to be in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Rain amounts through Monday morning are forecast to average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches across the Hill Country, and close to close to a quarter inch across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast.

Severe Weather Outlook for Saturday and the NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm Monday

Monday’s weather is expected to be mostly sunny across the Hill Country and Central Texas region. Meanwhile, there will be a 40-50 percent chance for scattered rain showers for the middle Texas coast where the front remains stalled. Rain amounts are forecast to be around a quarter inch.

The outlook for next Tuesday through Friday calls for a 40-50 percent chance for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms across the entire region as a series of low pressure troughs move over Texas out of the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico. Daily rain amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches are forecast. The latest data shows the thunderstorm activity remaining below severe threshold.

National Weather Service forecasts call for rain amounts over the next seven days to total between 1 and 1.5 inches across the Hill Country, and between 0.5 and 1.25 inches across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm Next Friday:

High temperatures next week are forecast to be mostly in the low and mid-80s.

Looking out a little further, dry weather is forecast to return next weekend, but the long-range solutions are indicating another chance for rain returning to the forecast around the beginning of May.

Have a great weekend!

Bob

Dry and quiet weather conditions are forecast through late week as our region remains under the stable influence high pressure situated over the south central U.S. and northern Mexico. Some changes to the weather pattern are expected this weekend and next week as the ridge slides off to the east, allowing for a more unsettled weather pattern to take shape. A chance for rain will finally return to the forecast.

A trough of low pressure pushing east across the northern Plains states is helping to push a weak cold front south into Texas. As of early Monday afternoon, the front stretched from Sherman to Abilene, to near Fort Stockton. The front is predicted to slowly move south across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions after midnight Monday night, then pull up stationary along the middle and upper Texas coast Tuesday morning. Unfortunately, the atmosphere will be too dry for the development of any rain along the front. The front is expected to bring slightly cooler temperatures for Tuesday and Tuesday night before warmer air returns on Wednesday. Ahead of the front, more unseasonably warm readings are forecast.

• High temperatures Monday are predicted to be in the low and mid-90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the mid-80s across the coastal plains
• Lows Tuesday morning will generally be around 60-62 degrees
• High temperatures Tuesday will include the upper 70s across the Hill Country, the low 80s across Central Texas, and the low to mid-80s towards the coast
• Low temperatures Wednesday morning will range from the mid-50s across the Hill Country, to the low 60s near the coast

Mostly sunny, breezy, and warmer weather can be expected Wednesday through Friday as the cold front lifts back to the north. This will allow warm and more humid air to spread north from the Gulf. Expect southerly breezes each day of 10-15 mph, with occasional gusts to around 35 mph.

• High temperatures Wednesday will be in the low and mid-80s, warming to the mid and upper 80s for Thursday and Friday
• Lows Thursday and Friday mornings are forecast to be in the low and mid-60s

Changes to the stationary weather pattern will finally begin to take place this weekend when the ridge over Texas moves to the east. At the same time, a large trough of low pressure is predicted to move into the western and southwestern U.S. out of the Pacific. Forecasts call for the large trough to track east across the southern Plains and northeast to the Great Lakes this weekend and early next week. The low is expected to pull considerable Gulf moisture north into Texas beginning late Friday, continuing through the weekend. This will result in a mostly cloudy sky. While the main trough is forecast to pass north of Texas, small weaker troughs of low pressure are forecast to move across the state over the weekend, helping to cause a chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Additional chances for scattered rains look to extend into the early and middle parts of next week as well as more weak disturbances move over the region.

Forecasts call for a 30 to 40 percent chance for rain and thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night, increasing to a 40 to 50 percent Sunday through early next week. The highest totals of rain are forecast to occur across the northern Hill Country and the northern counties of Central Texas, with the lowest totals to the south.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday:

NWS Cumulative Rainfall Valid through 7 pm Monday:

Scattered showers and thunderstorms through the first half of next week will have the potential to cause scattered daily totals in the range of 0.25 to 0.5 inches.

The outlook for late next week into the following weekend calls for generally dry weather and warm temperatures, with highs in the mid-80s.

Have a good week!

Bob