Forecast for Central Texas
Reports from LCRA’s HydrometRainfall summary
Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather
Sunny and Hot through the Weekend. A Chance for Rain Along a Cold Front Monday Night
Few changes in the current hot, summer pattern are expected as we head into the weekend. This week’s weather pattern has been dominated by a strong area of high pressure in the upper atmosphere ridging into Texas out of the western U.S. While forecasts call for the ridge to flatten and weaken slightly over the next few days, the ridge is still expected to cause more sunny and very hot weather through Monday. Some changes in the pattern do look to take place beginning late Monday, continuing through the middle of next week when the ridge weakens enough to allow a weak cold front to sag south into Texas. The front is expected bring our region a chance for rain showers and thunderstorms along with two to three days of less hot temperatures. Potential Tropical Cyclone Three is forecast to make landfall somewhere along the eastern Gulf coast of Louisiana late tonight or early Saturday morning, having little to no impact on weather conditions across the middle Texas coast or Central Texas.
This afternoon through Sunday afternoon, weather conditions will continue mostly sunny and quite hot across the region. An isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out across Central Texas this afternoon and again Saturday afternoon, but the chance for rain at any given location will be less than 20 percent. There will be a 20 percent chance for a few scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the middle Texas coast Saturday and Sunday afternoons as an area of tropical moisture spreads inland behind the tropical system. Rain amounts, if any, are predicted to total less than a quarter inch.
- High temperatures this afternoon and Saturday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, with low and mid-90s across the coastal plains.
- High temperatures on Father’s Day are forecast to be near 98-100 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and in the mid-90s across the coastal plains.
Mostly sunny, dry and very hot weather is forecast to continue Monday. High temperatures are forecast to be near 98-101 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, with middle 90s expected across the coastal plains.
An unusual, late season cold front is forecast to sag south out of the Plains states and into North Texas Monday night. Forecasts call for the front to reach the Austin/Central Texas region Tuesday morning where it will pull up stationary. With a very moist atmosphere in place, the front will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall is not expected to be all that heavy. Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but a couple of strong storms will be possible Monday night through Tuesday.
Forecasts call for a 40-50 percent chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms developing across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Monday night, followed by a 40-50 percent chance for additional showers and storms across the entire region on Tuesday. Just a slight chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast Tuesday night through Wednesday. Rainfall between Monday night and Wednesday night is forecast to generally average around a half inch, with a few isolated totals to near 1 inch possible.
- A short break from the very hot temperatures is forecast Tuesday and Wednesday, with high temperatures Tuesday near 90 degrees, and in the low 90s Wednesday.
Thursday into the following weekend, familiar summertime weather will resume as the unusual cold front lifts back to the north and the ridge to our west nudges a bit to the east. Expect high temperatures back into the mid and upper 90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, with low to mid-90s expected towards the coast.
Looking out into the week of June 28th, some forecasts are indicating another unusual June cold front will sink south into Texas, possibly bringing our region a few showers.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three
Forecasters continue to closely monitor a strong tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico that is attempting to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Friday’s satellite images showed the disturbance was gradually becoming better organized. Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the system and they found a surface center a little to the east of where it was previously expected it to be, but have otherwise reported generally light winds.
As of 1:00 pm CDT Friday, the tropical disturbance was centered over the west-central Gulf of Mexico, roughly 165 miles south of Morgan City, Louisiana. The system was moving toward the north near 14 mph, and a north to north-northeast motion is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the system will make landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast tonight or early Saturday. A northeastward motion across the southeastern United States is likely after landfall through the weekend.
Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph with higher gusts. The circulation is gradually becoming better defined, and a tropical storm is likely to form over the north-central Gulf of Mexico later on Friday or Friday night.
Colorado State University/RAMMB 06/18/2021 2:10 pm CDT
Summer Officially Begins Sunday Night
The summer solstice will occur precisely Sunday night June 20 , at 10:32 pm CDT. For us in the Northern Hemisphere, this solstice will mark the beginning of summer and the longest day of the year. Early dawns. Long days. Late sunsets. Short nights. Meanwhile, south of the equator, winter will begin.
The solstice is also the day when the midday Sun passes the closest it ever can to being straight overhead, and thus when your shadow becomes the shortest it can ever be at your location. And if you have a good west-northwest horizon, mark carefully where the Sun sets. In a few days you should be able to detect that the Sun is again starting to set a just little south (left) of that point.
In Austin, the sun will rise Monday at 6:29 am and set at 8:35pm, making daylength 14 hours and 6 minutes. The midday sun will reach a peak altitude in the sky of 83 degrees.
Have a good weekend.
National Hurricane Center Declares Gulf System Potential Tropical Cyclone Three
As of late Thursday afternoon, visible satellite images showed that the cloud pattern associated with the broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has gradually becoming better organized. Deep convection has begun to form a broad curved band over the eastern portion of the system, similar to what one might see in a developing subtropical cyclone.
Colorado State University/RAMMB 06/17/2021 4:10 pm CDT
Although the upper-level winds are not particularly favorable for development, with lots of westerly shear over the area, the global models do suggest tropical/subtropical cyclogenesis within the next 12 hours or so. Given the proximity of the disturbance to land, the National Hurricane Center began initiating advisories on the potential tropical cyclone. Both satellite derived wind products and the early afternoon USAF mission confirm that system has a broad low pressure center over the south-central Gulf of Mexico with winds generally in the 25 kt range. The current organizational structure is that below what is classifiable as a tropical cyclone.
At 4:00 PM CDT, the tropical disturbance was centered over the west-central Gulf of Mexico, about 475 miles south of Morgan City, Louisiana. The system was moving toward the north near 9 mph and this motion with some increase in forward speed is expected for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the system will approach the north-central Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday. A northeastward motion across the southeastern United States is likely after landfall. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast tonight and Friday.
The National Hurricane Center indicates a subtropical or tropical depression or storm is likely to form over the west-central Gulf of Mexico Thursday night or early Friday, with the probability for development at 90 percent.
Based on the latest information and forecast track, any impacts to Southeast Texas and the middle Texas coast are expected to be minimal, with some increase in coastal tides, likely below levels that would cause any significant coastal flooding and an increase in showers near and east of Galveston Bay.
A Tropical Depression is Attempting to Develop in the Southern Gulf
Forecasters continue to keep a close watch on an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico. This activity is associated with a broad low located over the region.
Colorado State University/RAMMB 06/16/2021 2:00 pm CDT
According to the National Hurricane Center, this system is not expected to move much through Wednesday night, and little if any development is expected during that time. However, the system should begin to move northward on Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late Thursday or on Friday when the low moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. NHC forecasters are giving this system a 70 percent chance for tropical development over the next 48 hours. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the area on Thursday.
The general consensus among the computer forecast solutions is for the tropical system to continue moving north across the western Gulf of Mexico Friday, with the system moving inland somewhere near the Sabine river, or southwest Louisiana on Saturday. Despite high chances for this system to become a tropical depression or tropical storm, any significant impacts should remain well to the east of Central Texas and the middle Texas coast, with our region staying on the dry side of the system.
The weekend outlook for the Hill Country and Central Texas calls for mostly sunny and continued hot weather, with high temperatures in the middle and upper 90s. There will be a 30 percent for scattered showers for the middle Texas coast, but rain amounts should average less than a quarter inch.
There are some hints the entire region will see a chance for rain develop next Monday through Wednesday when a cold front sags south into North Texas.
Summer Settling in; Mostly Dry and Hot through Late Week
Sunday turned out to be the hottest day so far this summer, with the temperature approaching 100 degrees across much of the region. And the heat isn’t done by any means. Overnight, a large complex of showers and thunderstorms developed on the west side of the DFW metroplex and tracked very slowly to the west-southwest. As of noon, the complex of storms was located over the area from west of Abilene to San Angelo and Big Spring. Forecasts call for the complex of storms to spread further into West Texas this afternoon, having no impact on the Hill Country or Central Texas regions.
The huge weather story on this Monday is the forecast for more very hot temperatures across the state and the region. Monday’s weather maps showed an unusually strong ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere covering the western and central U.S. The ridge was centered over western New Mexico. Sinking air from the ridge combined with the drying ground is expected to cause very hot afternoon temperatures—very much like what we saw on Sunday. Clouds on the periphery of the West Texas storm complex may help hold down temperatures a few degrees across the western and northern Hill Country. Under a mostly sunny sky, this afternoon’s temperature is forecast to climb to around 98-101 degrees across the eastern half of the Hill Country and all of Central Texas. Across the coastal plains and western Hill Country, high temperatures are forecast to reach the mid-90s. Do note a couple of isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the coastal plains region this afternoon as the Sea Breeze pushes inland from the coast.
Only minor changes in the current pattern are forecast for Tuesday through Friday as the broad ridge of high pressure remains anchored over the western and Central U.S. The ridge is forecast to reach peak intensity mid-week, then shift further west and weaken late week and into the weekend. A slight chance for a few scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms will continue across the coastal plains region, while other locations should remain mostly sunny and dry. Forecasts call for high temperatures each day to generally be in the mid and upper 90s.
There is some uncertainty in the outlook for Friday and the upcoming weekend hinging on the potential development of a tropical disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico. National Hurricane Center forecasters are monitoring an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the Bay of Campeche that are associated with a broad low pressure area. So far, there is no defined surface low pressure system at the surface. NHC forecasters and global model solutions indicate a surface low/tropical depression may develop here over the next couple of days as the system moves slowly northward into the west-central Gulf of Mexico. NHC forecasters are giving this system a 70 percent chance for tropical development over the next 5 days. Global forecast solutions call for the system to generally move toward upper Texas or Louisiana coasts by about Saturday. At this time it appears the majority of the weather and impacts associated with this system should remain east of Southeast Texas, but there is still uncertainty on where the exact center forms and where the system will eventually move inland. A more westward track could bring a better chance for rain and impacts to the middle Texas coast and possibly Central Texas.
Aside from the potential tropical disturbance/tropical depression, forecasts call for the ridge to become much weaker across Texas this weekend as a broad trough of low pressure sets up across the northern and central Plains states. With a weaker ridge overhead, a few spotty rain showers will be possible across the region. The chance for rain will only be 20 percent and rain amounts, if any, will total less than a tenth of an inch. High temperatures should lower to the low and mid-90s.
The outlook for next week calls for mostly sunny weather. There will be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday when a weak cold front sags south into North Texas. Rain amounts, if any should be low. High temperatures are forecast to remain in the low and mid-90s.
Tropical Weather Outlook
Satellite and radar images show that the low pressure area that NHC forecasters have been following since Sunday off the coast of North Carolina has become better organized with a small central dense overcast over the center and more prominent banding features. As a result, the system has been upgraded to tropical depression Two.
At 10 am CDT, the center of Tropical Depression Two was located about 105 miles east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. The depression was moving toward the northeast near 21 mph, and this general motion is expected through Wednesday with increasing forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight and could continue to strengthen on Tuesday. The system should begin to weaken by Tuesday night and is expected to dissipate on Wednesday as it moves over the waters south of Nova Scotia.
NHC forecasters are also monitoring a strong tropical wave located just offshore of west Africa. The system is producing a large area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some development of this system will be possible during the next few days before a combination of dry air aloft and strong upper-level winds limit any chance of formation while the wave is over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean late week. NHC forecasters are giving this system a 20 percent chance for tropical development over the next 5 days.
Summer-Like Weather Continuing into Next Week. Closely Watching Developments in the Gulf.
The wet weather pattern a week ago transitioned directly into a hot and dry summer-like weather pattern early this week. This transition seems to have taken place almost overnight. A ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere that had previously been parked over northern Mexico and the Desert Southwest strengthened and quickly expanded east across Texas this week, causing the development of the July-like weather.
Friday’s weather maps showed the large ridge of high pressure covering all of the south central and southwestern U.S., with the ridge being centered between Midland and El Paso. Sinking air underneath the ridge is causing a dry, stable atmosphere along with very hot temperatures. Forecasts call for the ridge to hold nearly stationary through Sunday, then slowly shift west to the central and southern Rockies early next week.
For this afternoon through Sunday, expect a pattern of nighttime and morning low clouds, followed by mostly sunny and hot afternoons. Temperatures each day are predicted to generally reach the mid-90s. But do keep in mind due to the high relative humidity levels, afternoon heat index readings will peak at around 100-105 degrees. There will be a nice southerly breeze at 10-20 mph Friday afternoon and Friday night. But wind speeds are predicted to decrease to around 5-10 mph on Saturday and Sunday.
Monday through Wednesday, little change in the weather is expected across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions as the ridge slowly weakens. Mostly sunny, dry and hot weather will continue, with high temperatures in the mid to lower 90s. Across the middle Texas coast, there will be a 30-40 percent chance for scattered, mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day as a weak cold front sinks into East and Southeast Texas. Some of the showers developing along the front are forecast to spread south and southwest to the middle Texas coast. Daily rain amounts will be low, with most totals around a tenth of an inch or less.
The outlook for late next week calls for partly cloudy and less hot weather as the ridge pulls further away to the west. Expect high temperatures to be close to 90-92 degrees.
Focusing on the Gulf of Mexico Next Week
There has been lots of talk recently about the potential for some sort of tropical system to form in the Gulf of Mexico late next week. National Hurricane Center forecasters are now closely monitoring the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico where an area oof low pressure is expected to form early next week. This is the same location where there is a growing consensus among the global forecast model solutions for an area of low pressure to develop early next week. The model solutions call for the system to gradually strengthen as it moves toward the northwest Gulf coast mid and late next week. The low is predicted to reach the coast sometime next Friday or Saturday.
While there is a lot to be worked out on the “when”, “where” and “how organized” this system will be, there continues to be enough consistency in the guidance to signal that something may develop. Regardless of development, a significant surge of tropical moisture toward the middle and upper Texas coast looks possible by the end of next week. This will likely cause an increase in rain chances along with gusty winds.
National Hurricane Center forecasters are currently giving this potential system a 20 percent chance for tropical development over the next five days.
This is definitely something we will want to keep a close eye on over the weekend and early next week.
Elsewhere across the tropical Atlantic, weather conditions are quiet and tropical cyclone development is not expected over the next five days.
Catch a Great Pairing of the Moon and Venus Friday Evening
The bright planet Venus and the thin crescent Moon will form a mystic pair low in the west-northwest sky in twilight Friday evening. The two will be just 2° or 3° apart! Your best view will come about 35 to 45 minutes after sunset, (approximately 9 pm CDT), before the two get too low in the sky.
Venus has now returned to our evening sky. You can catch it every evening, shortly after sunset in the west-northwestern sky. Venus is the third brightest object in our sky, behind the sun and the moon.
Have a good weekend.
ENSO June Update: ENSO-Neutral Conditions Expected through Fall
ENSO-neutral conditions are present in the tropical Pacific, and NOAA forecasters think they’re likely to continue through the summer. ENSO-neutral is slightly favored through the fall, but it’s a close call between ENSO-neutral and re-developing La Niña for the late fall and winter. That’s the June update from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Currently, sea surface temperatures in the ENSO monitoring regions are slightly cooler than average, but within the neutral range of +/- 0.5°C from the long-term (1991–2020) average.
Average Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies for June 10, 2021, based on CFSR 1981-2010 Climatology.
Subsurface temperature anomalies are positive, but they’ve decreased slightly due to the weakening of above-average subsurface temperatures around the thermocline in the central Pacific Ocean. Low-level easterly and upper-level westerly wind anomalies extended across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. At the Date Line, tropical convection was mostly near average, and enhanced rainfall was evident over the western Pacific Ocean. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral conditions.
According to the CPC, ENSO-neutral conditions are likely through the summer: there’s a 78% chance that the sea surface temperature in the Niño3.4 region of the Pacific ocean will be close to the long-term average—within the neutral range—during June–August. The sea surface temperature in the Niño3.4 region is the primary ENSO-monitoring index.
The latest forecast consensus indicates the chance for neutral drops, and La Niña chances rise, through the fall, until the probability of La Niña overtakes neutral in October–December and reaches 53% for November–January. It’s important to note in the historical record, La Niña has had a tendency to appear in consecutive winters, so a return to La Nina this winter would not be unexpected. But there just isn’t enough evidence yet to tip the scales definitively between neutral and La Niña for this coming winter. One thing we can say with confidence is that chances for El Niño this coming fall/winter are low—less than 10%.
The official CPC/IRI ENSO probability forecast, based on a consensus of CPC and IRI forecasters. It is based on observational and predictive information from early in the month and from the previous month. Image from IRI.
Stay tuned for more updates in the coming weeks as forecasters and the forecast solutions get a better handle on the Pacific trend for this fall and winter.
Weather Pattern Trending Drier and Warmer as Spring Pattern Ends
After a few wet weeks where rainfall has generally averaged between 10-20 inches, a drier weather pattern is beginning to take shape. The series of low pressure troughs that moved into Texas during May and early June has come to an end. A stable ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere strengthening over northern Mexico and the Desert Southwest is expected to bring our region a drier pattern this week, continuing into next week.
At midday, forecasters were monitoring a large complex of rain and thunderstorms tracking east across North and North Central Texas. These storms brought very heavy rain to much of North Texas Monday morning. But further south, rain amounts between Abilene, Lampasas and Temple have averaged less than a tenth of an inch. The large complex of storms is forecast to continue moving to the east this afternoon, having no direct impact on our region’s weather. Satellite images show widespread clouds associated with the storm complex covering much of the Hill Country and Central Texas regions. These clouds will be slow to burn off and will help to keep today’s sky mostly cloudy. Despite the clouds, today’s temperature should warm to around 88-90 degrees.
High-resolution forecasts indicate another complex of rain and storms may potentially develop across West Texas this evening. This area of storms is forecast to track to the east-southeast, possibly moving over parts of the Hill Country and Central Texas after midnight. There is still much uncertainty as to whether this area of storms will develop. And if it does develop, iswill it hold together to make it into the Hill Country. Based on the latest model runs, the probability for rain and thunderstorms overnight will be near 30 percent. Rain amounts should average only between a quarter and a half inch.
No additional thunderstorm complexes are forecast for the remainder of the week as the ridge of high pressure to our west strengthens and spreads north into the central Plains states. Dry weather is forecast Tuesday through Saturday. We will likely see a pattern of widespread morning clouds, to be followed by a mostly sunny sky each afternoon. High temperatures each day are forecast to be near 90-92 degrees. Do note that with area soils quite wet from the recent rains, relative humidity levels will be high—pushing afternoon heat index readings up to between 95 and 102 degrees.
Forecasts call for a 20-30 percent chance for scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms next Sunday and Monday when a weak cold front sinks south out of the Plains and stalls somewhere near or just south of the Red River. Scattered storms developing along the front will have the potential to spread south through Central Texas and down to the coast. Rain amounts appear low at this time. High temperatures will remain in the low 90s. Forecasts call for a stronger cold front to press south through Central Texas sometime in the middle of next week, bringing another chance for rain showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures look to trend down a couple of degrees to around 88-90 degrees behind the cold front next Thursday and Friday.
Tropical Weather Outlook
Weather conditions are currently quiet across the Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.
National Hurricane Center forecasters are closely monitoring the southwestern Caribbean Sea where an area of low pressure is expected to develop by Thursday or Friday. Some gradual development will be possible thereafter as the system moves slowly northwestward toward Central America. NHC forecasters are giving this system a 20 percent chance for tropical development over the next 5 days.
Have a good week.
Wet Pattern Hanging On but the Rainfall is Not Expected to be Quite as Heavy
June has certainly started off wet across Central and South Texas. Waves of rain and thunderstorms have spread across the region, with each wave producing significant totals of rain. Forecasts call for the wet pattern to continue through the weekend and early next week, with the rain finally decreasing in areal coverage and intensity beginning next Wednesday. While the second half of next week won’t contain a totally dry forecast, the rain is expected to become more spotty in nature, with considerably lower totals.
Early Friday afternoon, scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms were just beginning to develop across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions. Friday’s weather maps showed a large area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere centered over west-central Texas. This feature is forecast to remain nearly stationary through the weekend, then slowly lift off to the northeast early next week. The combination of weak atmospheric lift associated with the upper low, weak waves of low pressure rotating around the low and a very moist atmosphere is expected to cause the development of numerous rain showers and scattered thunderstorms across the area today through Sunday. The wet pattern appears to be trending to one that features a build up of showers and thunderstorms in the late morning and midday hours, with rain and storms persisting through the afternoon and evening. The activity is then forecast to decrease in the late evening. A few heavy downpours will be possible. There will be some dry periods with a few peeks of sunshine from time to time over the next couple of days.
This afternoon through Sunday, the probability for rain will be near 60-70 percent during the afternoon and evening hours, with the probability for rain decreasing to 30 percent overnight. Daily high temperatures through Sunday are forecast to be in the low and middle-80s.
Daily rain amounts today through Sunday are forecast to generally average between 0.5 and 1 inch. A couple of isolated totals to around 2 inches will be possible.
Looking at next week, mainly daytime and evening rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast across the area Monday and Tuesday as the upper low slowly pulls off to the northeast. The probability for rain each day will be near 40-50 percent with daily rain amounts both days forecast to be around a half inch. A few isolated heavier totals will be possible. High temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s.
The National Weather Service’s 5-day Rainfall Forecast calls for totals to near an inch across the Hill Country and totals of 1-2 inches for locations along and east of Interstate 35.
NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Friday through 7 pm Wednesday:
For next Wednesday through Friday, scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast as the atmosphere remains quite moist and slightly unstable. The probability for rain each day will be around 30 percent , with rain amounts averaging around a quarter inch or less. Daily high temperatures look to be in the upper 80s.
The outlook for next weekend calls for just a slight chance for showers as a weak ridge of high pressure attempts to set up across the region. Expect a partly cloudy sky with high temperatures around 88-90 degrees. Longer-range outlooks call an unsettled weather pattern returning to our area the week of June 14th as the ridge of high pressure weakens and a broad area of low pressure spreads over Texas out of the southern U.S.
Earliest Sunrise of the Year
Although the summer solstice isn’t until June 20th, the earliest sunrises of the year will be taking place beginning Saturday, continuing through next Tuesday , June 15th. In Austin, sunrise on these days will be at 6:28 am CDT. You might be interested to note the latest sunsets of the year won’t occur until late June and the first week of July.
Have a good weekend.
Wet and Soggy Weather Expected through Early Next Week
A large area of rain and thunderstorms spreading across the Hill Country and Central Texas Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. This area of rain was being generated by the latest wave of low pressure to move through a large trough of low pressure stretching from western Texas to the Great Lakes region. According to LCRA’s Hydromet, this system produced widespread totals of 1-2 inches over the area between Junction, Mason, Fredericksburg, South Austin and Bastrop. There were even a couple of reports of totals over 3 inches.
High-resolution forecasts call for the area of rain and thunderstorms to slowly exit the Hill Country and across Central Texas regions Thursday evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to spread persist across the middle Texas coast through late Thursday evening. While the threat for widespread severe weather is low, a couple of thunderstorms may produce small hail and gusty winds. There will be considerable, dangerous lightning. Rainfall through late evening is forecast to average around an inch, with isolated totals to near 2 inches possible.
The outlook for Thursday night calls for a 30 percent chance for scattered light showers and isolated thunderstorms. The high-resolution forecasts do not call for any widespread or heavy rainfall.
A wet and unsettled weather pattern is expected to continue Friday through the weekend as a piece of the large upper trough cuts off and sets up over south central Texas. Waves of low pressure rotating around the trough are forecast to produce periods of showers and thunderstorms. There are some indications the afternoon and evening periods will be the most favored time periods for rain and storms. Forecasts call for daily rain amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch, with isolated totals of 2-3 inches possible. The threat for widespread severe storms appears low, but a few storms may produce large hail and strong winds.
More showers and thunderstorms are forecast across the region next Monday and Tuesday. However, the upper trough is forecast to weaken and begin lifting slowly to the north. This should shift the heaviest and most widespread rain to areas along and east of Interstate 35. Daily rain amounts are forecast to generally average between a quarter and a half inch, with isolated heavier totals.
Forecasts call for the chance for widespread rain to decrease next Wednesday through Friday as the upper trough moves further to the north. Nevertheless, scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely continue, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.
The National Weather Service’s rainfall forecast for the next 5 days calls for totals of 3-5 inches for locations along and east of Interstate 35. Totals of 1-3 inches are forecast for locations to the west of Interstate 35.
NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Thursday through 7 pm Tuesday:
The ground is very wet and in some cases saturated from the recent rains. Any additional rain over the next few days will runoff quickly, increasing the threat for flash flooding. If you approach a flooded road, remember to Turn Around, Don’t Drown.
Wet and Unsettled this Week, Continuing through the Upcoming Weekend
Rain and scattered thunderstorms spread across the region Monday night into early Tuesday morning as another wave of low pressure tracked across the region out of northern Mexico and northwest Texas. This is part of the same unsettled pattern that has been in place since early last week. Early this afternoon, all of the rain had exited the region as the wave of low pressure exits to the east. A break from the widespread rain is forecast this afternoon as our region remains between waves of low pressure. There will still be a slight chance for a few brief showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight—mainly for areas east of Interstate 35. The probability for rain will be 20 percent this afternoon and 40 percent overnight. Today’s sky will be mostly cloudy and high temperatures only be in the low and mid-80s.
A wet and unsettled weather pattern is forecast throughout the week and the upcoming weekend. Tuesday’s weather maps showed a large trough of low pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere stretching from the Great Lakes to northwest Texas. This trough is forecast to remain essentially stationary through late week and will allow a series of small waves of low pressure to move over the area. Each wave will have the potential to cause the development of widespread showers and thunderstorms between Wednesday and Friday. The probability for rain each day will be near 70-80 percent. Despite having high-resolution forecast data, trying to time the passage of these waves of low pressure is not very clear. Rainfall forecasts call for daily totals to average between 0.5 and 1 inch, with isolated heavier totals. With the ground currently quite wet and in some cases saturated from recent rains, these additional rains will cause efficient runoff and could lead to flash flooding.
The threat for severe storms Wednesday through Friday is forecast to be low.
High temperatures Wednesday through Friday are forecast to generally be in the low and mid-80s.
The outlook for the upcoming weekend calls for more periods of rain and storms across the region as a piece of the upper trough situated over the state breaks off and very slowly meanders to the east. With the atmosphere quite moist and unstable, the probability for rain will remain near 70-80 percent. Rain amounts each day are forecast to average between 0.5 and 1 inch, with isolated heavier totals. High temperatures are forecast to be mostly in the mid-80s.
Forecast solutions are indicating it will be a very wet period over the next five days. Forecasts for the period between Tuesday evening and Sunday evening call for widespread totals of 3-5 inches for the eastern Hill Country, all of Central Texas and the middle Texas coast. Slightly lower totals are forecast across the western and northern Hill Country.
NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Tuesday through 7 pm Sunday:
Looking ahead to next week, forecast solutions call for the wet and unsettled pattern to continue through at least Tuesday as more waves of low pressure continue to move over the region. Rain amounts on both Monday and Tuesday are forecast to average around a half inch. The wet pattern is forecast to ease some beginning next Wednesday as the trough of low pressure finally pushes east and a weak ridge of high pressure begins to move in from the west. However, a slight chance for mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue. Expect daily high temperatures to be in the upper 80s.
While the wet pattern is forecast to ease some next week, updated outlooks for the month of June call for it to be a wet month, with above normal rainfall and below normal temperatures.
Tropical Weather Outlook
Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which will run until November 30. Currently, weather conditions are very quiet across the Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico and tropical storm development is not expected over the next 5 days.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting another above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. For 2021, NOAA is predicting a likely range of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.
Long-term averages for the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 14, 7, and 3, respectively.
The month of May turned out to be unusually wet across Central and South Texas. Totals generally ranged between 2 and 6 inches across the Hill Country and between 6 and 10 inches across Central Texas. Totals of 10-20 inches were recorded From Fayette County, southeast to the middle Texas coast. While this wasn’t quite as wet as May 2015, for many location it still ranked among some of the wettest Mays on record.
In Austin, Camp Mabry recorded a monthly total of 7.23 inches, which is 2.19 inches above normal. May 2021 ranks as the 26th wettest May on record. At Austin-Bergstrom, the monthly total was 12.27 inches, which is 7.27 inches above normal. May 2021 ranks as the 4th wettest May on record dating back to 1942.