Dry Weather to Continue into Early Next Week. A Chance for Rain Developing Wednesday

FEB. 26, 2026

An unseasonably warm and dry weather pattern continues across Central Texas thanks to a nearly stationary ridge of high pressure situated over northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. The ridge continues to keep the storm track well to the north of Texas. Forecasts call for the ridge to slowly break down and shift east this weekend as the jet stream pattern over North American finally begins to change. These changes are expected to bring a more unsettled weather pattern and a chance for rain to our region beginning the middle of next week.

In the near term, Thursday afternoon’s weather maps showed a Pacific cold front sinking south across Central Texas. No clouds or rain are forecast with the front. The front is predicted to push off the middle Texas coast sometime late Thursday evening. Behind the front, very dry air is forecast to spread across the region Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Gusty winds should decrease to around 5-10 mph Thursday evening and Thursday night. Sunny and unseasonably warm temperatures will continue on Friday.

  • Lows Friday morning will generally be in the low and mid-50s across the Hill Country and Central Texas, and in the low 60s across the coastal plains
  • High temperatures Friday are forecast to be in the low and mid-80s
  • Lows Saturday morning will be mostly in the mid and upper 50s

Few changes in the weather are forecast this weekend and early next week as the southwestern ridge spreads over our region. Southerly breezes are forecast to return beginning Friday night that will cause somewhat higher relative humidity levels through the weekend and next week. The sky is forecast to be mostly sunny Saturday through Monday, then become mostly cloudy on Tuesday.

  • High temperatures Saturday through Tuesday are forecast to be mostly in the low and mid-80s
  • Lows Sunday through Wednesday mornings will generally be in the mid and upper 50s

A chance for rain showers is forecast to take shape Wednesday as a West Coast trough of low pressure moves from the southern Rockies to the Plains states, dragging a Pacific cold front into West Texas. In advance of the front, considerable moisture is forecast to spread north from the Gulf, causing the atmosphere to become moist and somewhat unstable. A 30-40 percent chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms is forecast across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Wednesday into Thursday.  Rain amounts are forecast to generally average around a quarter inch or less.

A somewhat better chance for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms is forecast to develop next weekend when a second and stronger trough of low pressure pushes east out from the Desert Southwest. Rainfall next weekend is expected to be heavier and could result in some totals close to an inch,

Looking out into the week of March 9th, the weather pattern is forecast to remain unsettled and is expected to bring additional periods of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms.

No significant change in the temperature is forecast over the next couple of weeks. Highs are predicted to remain in the upper 70s to low 80s, with lows mostly in the 50s to low 60s.

Fire Weather Outlook

Although dry conditions and above average temperatures look to persist through the weekend, lighter winds Friday should cause fire weather conditions to moderate. Light to moderate and occasionally gusty southerly winds will develop this this weekend, but increasing humidity levels should bring some relief from the near-critical conditions.

Post-Season Analysis Upgrades Hurricane Melissa to Category 5,

A post-season analysis by the National Hurricane Center released Thursday upgraded October’s Hurricane Melissa to a Category 5 storm, with the sustained winds of 190 mph at peak intensity.

The updated assessment, based on satellite data and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft findings and several other factors, determined Melissa’s central pressure dropped to 892 millibars at its strongest point.

With maximum sustained winds of 190 mph, Melissa is now tied with Hurricane Allen as the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record by wind speed. Its minimum central pressure ranks as the third-lowest on record, tying the historic 1935 Labor Day hurricane.

Also, during Hurricane Melissa, the highest wind gust ever recorded via Dropsonde with the hurricane hunters was observed at 252 mph.

Bob