A Chance for Rain Forecast Friday into Early Saturday. Mild Temperatures Expected throughout the Week

OCT. 20, 2025

Fall-like temperatures were observed across the region Monday morning, following the passage of a cold front Sunday morning. For many locations (including Austin), this was the coolest morning so far this fall. According to LCRA’s Hydromet, Monday’s lows were generally in the low and mid-50s across the Hill Country, in the low to upper 50s across Central Texas, and in the upper 50s to mid-60s across the coastal plains. Several Hill Country locations did see readings dip into the mid and upper 40s. LCRA’s lowest gauged temperature was 44 degrees at a location northwest of Lake Brownwood, in Coleman County. Unfortunately, Monday morning’s cool temperatures moved out in a hurry in response to the development of gusty southerly winds.

Monday’s weather maps showed a broad ridge of high pressure stretching across the southern U.S. A trough of low pressure stretched from southern Canada to the central Rockies. This trough will help to push another Pacific cold front across Texas on Tuesday. One other system to note is a broad area of low pressure situated off the coast of California. This system will get pulled east late week and is expected to bring our region its first decent chance for rain in several weeks. More on that below.

Monday’s weather is shaping up to be sunny, breezy, and unseasonably warm. High temperatures are forecast to generally be in the low 90s. Expect gusty southerly winds with speeds of 10-20 mph and gusts to 25 mph through late afternoon. The sky will be partly cloudy Monday night, and temperatures will be quite a bit milder. Wind speeds should diminish to 5-10 mph. Lows Tuesday morning will range from the upper 50s to low 60s across the Hill Country to the low 70s near the coast.

A weak Pacific cold front is forecast to push south across the region Tuesday. With limited moisture in place, no rain is expected. Behind the front, the wind will shift out of the north with speeds of 10-15 mph and gusts to 25 mph. The sky will be sunny. High temperatures will include the low 80s across the Hill Country, the mid to upper 80s across Central Texas, and the low 90s coastal region. Lows Wednesday morning will range from the mid and upper 50s across the Hill Country, to the low and mid-60s towards the coast.

Mostly sunny and warm weather will return for Wednesday and Thursday as the cold front returns back to the north.  Highs Wednesday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 80s.  Highs should rise to near 88-90 degrees Thursday. Lows Thursday and Friday mornings will generally be in the low and mid-60s.

A chance for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms looks to develop across the entire region Friday into Saturday as a trough of low pressure off the West Coast is pulled inland and tracks east across the southern Plains. The trough is expected to pull moisture into Texas beginning Thursday, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms developing as early as Friday morning. The most favorable period for rain and thunderstorms is expected to occur Friday afternoon through Saturday morning, with the rain ending from west to east Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. There is some uncertainty as to how far south the trough will slide, so the probability for rain Friday through Saturday morning will only be near 40 percent. All of the rain should clear out by Saturday evening.

According to the National Weather Service, rain amounts Friday through Saturday are forecast to average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches across the Hill Country, and between 0.5 and 1 inch for areas along and east of Interstate 35.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm Saturday:

Clouds should clear from west to east Saturday afternoon, followed by a sunny sky on Sunday. High temperatures Saturday and Sunday are forecast to be in the mid-80s.

Sunny, dry, and warm weather is forecast next Monday and Tuesday. Expect daily high temperatures to be in the upper 80s to 90 degrees.

A change to a noticeably cooler weather pattern is forecast to take place next Wednesday when a stronger cold front pushes south through Texas. A few light showers will be possible along the front Tuesday night, followed by dry weather next Wednesday through Friday. Behind the front, high temperatures next Wednesday through Friday are forecast to be in the upper 70s. Lows are forecast to be in the low and mid-50s.

As of now, Halloween is looking dry and somewhat cooler, with temperatures Friday evening in the 60s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions remain quiet across the Gulf, and tropical cyclone development is not expected here over the next seven days.

The focus of attention right now is on the eastern Caribbean Sea, where a strong tropical wave is producing a large area of clouds and showers. According to the National Hurricane Center, recent satellite wind data is indicating the system still lacks a closed circulation, but continues to produce a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms near and to the east of the wave axis. Compared to Sunday, surface observations suggest the circulation is gradually becoming better defined, and environmental conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for tropical development as the system slows its forward motion. A tropical depression or storm is now likely to form over the next day or two as it moves into the central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over portions of the ABC Islands during the next couple of days. Interests in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba should monitor its progress as there is a risk of heavy rain and flooding, strong winds, and rough surf later this week. NHC is giving this system a 90 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

Should this system develop, it is not expected to move toward Texas or the western Gulf now that we are seeing cold fronts moving through our area. Forecasts indicate it will most likely either move west toward Central America, or track north through the area around Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.

NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 10-20-2025 2:10 pm CDT

Elevated Fire Weather Conditions Monday Afternoon and on Tuesday

Gusty southerly winds and low relative humidity levels Monday afternoon will combine to produce elevated fire weather conditions across the entire region.

Elevated fire weather conditions are forecast for the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Tuesday as strong winds and very dry air develop behind the next cold front.

Fuels remain extremely dry due to the lack of rain.

Update on Comet Lemmon

Comet Lemmon is still on track to make its closest approach to Earth, only 0.6 AU away, on Tuesday. The comet is reported to now be shining at 4th magnitude, which makes it visible to the naked eye and even cell phones (with night-sky photo settings). Find a dark sky, preferably away from city lights. Look for the comet low in the northwestern sky, to the left of the Big Dipper, after sunset.

Have a great week!

Bob