A Chance for Rain Tuesday and Wednesday. Only Slightly Lower Temperatures Expected Next Week
SEPT. 19, 2025
Summer may be drawing to a close shortly, but unfortunately, summer-like temperatures won’t going away anytime soon. Friday’s analysis showed Texas was still under the influence of a large ridge of high pressure centered over northern Mexico. While the ridge has been strong enough to keep high temperatures in the mid and upper 90s for the past few days, it hasn’t been quite strong enough to limit the development of a few spotty rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the coastal plains and parts of Central Texas. A similar pattern is forecast Friday afternoon through Monday as the position of the ridge remains nearly stationary. Forecasts call for a 20-30 percent chance for isolated rain showers across the coastal Plains region, and a less than 20 percent chance for a few spotty showers for areas along and east of Interstate 35. While most areas will remain dry, some isolated totals to around a tenth of an inch will be possible. Little change in the temperature is forecast through Sunday.
- High temperatures Friday through Monday are forecast to be in the upper 80s to low 90s across the Hill Country, in the mid-90s across the coastal Plains, and in the mid to upper 90s across Central Texas
- Low temperatures through Tuesday morning will range from the upper 60s across the Hill Country, to the low 70s near the coast
Some changes in the weather pattern are predicted to take place early next week as the stubborn ridge of high pressure over our area finally begins to shift a little more to the west and southwest. At the same time, a broad trough of low pressure is forecast to take shape across the Plains states and the lower Mississippi Valley. The developing trough will allow a weak cold front to push south and move across our area Tuesday into Wednesday.
The front is expected to bring a 30-40 percent chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the Hill Country, Central Texas, and coastal regions Tuesday and Tuesday night. The best chance for rain (40-50 percent) is forecast to shift to the eastern half of Central Texas and the coastal Plains region Wednesday as the front stalls over the area. A 30 percent chance for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms is forecast for the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor Wednesday. This will be followed by mostly sunny and dry weather next Thursday and Friday.
Rain amounts the middle of next week are not expected to be very heavy. Forecasts call for totals to generally less than a quarter half inch the region.
NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm next Friday:
Just slightly lower temperatures are forecast along and behind next week’s weak cold front.
- High temperatures Tuesday are predicted to be in the low 90s across the Hill Country and coastal regions, and in the mid-90s across Central Texas
- High temperatures Wednesday through Friday are forecast to be upper 80s across the Hill Country, and in the low 90s across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast
Forecasts call for another chance for rain to develop next weekend as a second cold front is forecast to push south into Texas. This front is expected to lower high temperatures a couple more degrees the week of September 28th. Highs are forecast to be in the mid to upper 80s across the Hill Country, and the upper 80s to 90 degrees across the rest of the region. There are no signs of autumn’s first good cold front over the next two-week period.
Tropical Weather Outlook
Weather conditions remain quiet across the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.
Tropical storm Gabrielle formed Thursday over the tropical Atlantic and is currently located about 550 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. As of 10 am CDT, Gabrielle was moving to the west-northwest at 12mph, with top winds near 50 mph. Gabrielle has been struggling in the face of strong westerly wind shear and dry air located in and around the circulation. This looks to change as Gabrielle begins to turn northward over the Atlantic and encounters increasingly favorable conditions. The forecast brings the system to a hurricane by Sunday as it tracks over the open Atlantic. On the forecast track, the center of Gabrielle is expected to pass east of Bermuda Sunday night and Monday.
National Hurricane Center forecasters are also tracking a tropical wave located just off the west coast of Africa. This system is producing widespread clouds with disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some slow development of this system will be possible through the middle to latter part of next week while it moves west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. NHC forecasters are only giving this system a 20 percent for tropical development over the next seven days.
Elsewhere, conditions are unusually quiet and tropical cyclone development is not expected over the next seven days.
The Beginning of Autumn
The autumnal equinox, or beginning of fall, will take place this Monday, September 22nd, at 1:19 pm CDT.
October and Fall Weather Outlook
On Thursday, The Climate Prediction Center released its updated outlook for October, and the fall season and it appears cool weather is going to really take its time getting here this year. The temperature is forecast to average above normal through the period. At the same time, there are high odds rainfall will average below normal as the storm track stays up to the north of Texas.
The outlook for October:
The Outlook for October/November/December:
Have a great weekend!
Bob
Additional Weather Resources from the National Weather Service:
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