Another Warm and Dry Week is Forecast. Some Changes on the Horizon for Next Week

March 23, 2026

It seems our short season of spring gave way to summer over the weekend as temperatures soared well into the 90s. Long-term averages indicate high temperatures for late March should be about 20 degrees cooler—in the mid-70s. The July-like heat resulted from the presence of a powerfully strong heat dome covering northern Mexico and the Desert Southwest. This feature has kept our sky clear while enabling the temperature to warm to summer-like levels. More unusually warm temperatures are forecast throughout the workweek, but some cooler readings are on tap for the upcoming weekend. Unfortunately, no rain is forecast over the next week.

Monday’s weather maps showed a weak cold front stalled out across the northern half of Central Texas and the Hill Country. For areas north of the boundary, the air has cooled slightly. The front is predicted to remain stalled across the area through Monday night, then retreat back to the north on Tuesday.

  • High temperatures Monday are forecast to be in the upper 70s to low 80s across the Hill Country, and in the low and mid-80s across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast
  • Lows Tuesday morning are predicted to reach the mid-50s across the Hill Country, and near 60-62 degrees at most other location

Tuesday through Friday, sunny and unseasonably warm will occur as the center of the heat dome spreads over Texas from the Desert Southwest. Fortunately, the magnitude of the heat dome is not expected to be as strong as it was over the weekend. Nevertheless, summer-like temperatures are still forecast.

  • High temperatures Tuesday through Wednesday are predicted to be in the upper 80s
  • High temperatures Thursday and Friday are forecast to be near 90 degrees
  • Lows Wednesday through Friday mornings are forecast to be near 60-62 degrees

Cooler air looks to arrive late Friday afternoon into Friday evening behind a fairly strong cold front. No rain is expected along the front. Expect northerly winds to increase to 15-25 mph with higher gusts Friday night through Saturday afternoon. Noticeably cooler air is predicted for a brief period Friday night through Saturday night. Warmer air will return on Sunday.

  • Lows Saturday morning will range from the upper 40s across the Hill Country, to the mid-50s across Central Texas, to around 60 degrees toward the coast
  • High temperatures Saturday will range from the low 70s across the Hill Country, to the upper 70s near the coast
  • Lows Sunday morning are forecast to be in the upper 40s across the Hill Country, with low and mid-50s at most other locations
  • High temperatures Sunday will be in the low and mid-50s

Next week, a change in the weather pattern is forecast to take place as the ridge of high pressure over Texas shifts to the east and a broad trough of low pressure begins to become established across the western U.S. The trough is forecast to remain across the west through at least the following weekend, possibly longer. Forecasts call for waves of low pressure originating in the Pacific to begin moving over Texas around the middle of next week, continuing through the weekend. These waves of low pressure are expected to bring periods of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms to much of Texas.

It’s too early to speculate on rain amounts with much confidence. I will point out several of the forecast solutions are pointing to totals of more than a half inch. The rainfall forecasts will become clearer over the next several days.

High temperatures next week are forecast to remain mostly in the low and mid-80s.

Fire Weather Concerns

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are forecast to continue through Friday across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions due to low relative humidity readings in the teens and low 20s with southerly breezes between 10 and 20 mph. Any fire that develops will have the potential to spread quickly.

Friday will likely see an even higher fire weather potential as a cold front brings strong and gusty winds.

A Record Warm March

If you’ve been thinking it’s been unusually warm this month, you are correct.  March temperatures (through the 22nd) have been the warmest March on record across the U.S. and also across Texas. For the U.S., March is also shaping up to be one of the most anomalous (greatest departure from normal) months ever recorded.

Austin’s average temperature through March 22nd has been 69.2 degrees, which is 7.6 degree above normal, and ranks as the warmest March 1-22 on record since 1897. Most of Texas is seeing March’s temperature averaging between 6 and 10 degrees above normal.

Have a good week!

Bob