The unsettled weather pattern which developed late last week continues as we start off the new week. Monday’s weather maps showed a broad trough of pressure covering the south central U.S., with a weak ridge of high pressure situated over northern Mexico and the Desert Southwest. For the past three days, weak disturbances in the upper atmosphere have moved southeast through the trough over Texas, kicking off areas of rain showers and thunderstorms. Lately, the forecast models have struggled with the timing of these disturbances and the evolution and magnitude of the rain. This general pattern is predicted to continue through Tuesday, before a drier pattern begins to take hold for the second half of the week.
Just before sunrise Monday morning, one of those southeastward moving disturbances helped cause the development of showers and thunderstorms across parts of Central Texas. The storms produced an area of 1-2 inch totals across south central Travis and eastern Hays Counties. An LCRA Hydromet gauge located 4 miles west of Manchaca, along the Travis/Hays County line, recorded 2.39 inches, with most of that occurring in just over an hour’s time.
Much hotter temperatures are on our weather horizon! The trough over Texas is forecast to diminish mid-week. Forecasts call for a strong ridge of high pressure over northern Mexico to spread north across Texas beginning this weekend, with the ridge persisting across Texas all of next week. The ridge will cause a dry, hot, and very summer-like pattern across the state. High temperatures across the Hill Country and Central Texas are forecast to be in the mid-90s this weekend, and the upper 90s for the first half of next week. Forecasts call for readings to reach near 98-100 degrees late next week into the following weekend.
Here’s a breakdown of the upcoming weather.
Monday Afternoon through Monday Night
With a moist and somewhat unstable atmosphere in place, scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are forecast across the region Monday afternoon and Monday evening.
Most of the rain activity is forecast to diminish by late evening. However, a few passing showers and isolated thunderstorms will still be possible overnight. The probability for rain across the area will be near 40-50 percent. Rain amounts through Tuesday morning will average around a quarter inch, with isolated totals of 1-2 inches possible.
Monday’s high temperature is forecast to be in the mid and upper 80s.
Tuesday through Tuesday Night
Additional scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are forecast across the region Tuesday. However, the most favorable area for rain is expected to be for areas east of Interstate 35. A strengthening ridge of high pressure across Mexico and western Texas is expected limit the development of showers and thunderstorms across the western half of the state. The probability for rain is forecast to be near 20 percent across the Hill Country, near 30-40 percent across Central Texas, and near 50 percent across the middle Texas coast. Rain amounts will average less than a quarter inch, but a couple of locally heavy downpours will still be possible.
High temperatures Tuesday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 80s.
Wednesday through Friday
The chance for rain is forecast to diminish across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions beginning Wednesday as the ridge of high pressure over Mexico expands east across Texas. Expect a mostly sunny sky and warmer temperatures. Meanwhile, a slight chance for mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue across the coastal plains region.
High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be near 88-90 degrees.
High temperatures Thursday are forecast to be in the low 90s.
High temperatures Friday are forecast to be in the low and mid-90s.
Saturday through Sunday
Mostly sunny and hot weather is forecast Saturday. Expect high temperatures mostly in the mid-90s.
There will be a slight chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms Saturday night through Sunday when a weak wave of low pressure moves pushes east across the northern half of Texas. The most favored area for rain is expected to be across the northern half of the state, including the northern Hill Country. Rain amounts are predicted to average between a quarter and a half inch.
High temperatures Sunday are forecast to be in the low and mid-90s.
Next Monday through Friday
Mostly sunny and very hot weather is forecast all of next week.
High temperatures are forecast to be in the mid and upper 90s Monday and Tuesday.
Hight temperatures Wednesday through Friday are forecast to be near 98-100 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the mid-90s across the coastal plains.
Tropical Weather Outlook
Weather conditions are quiet across the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and the tropical Atlantic.
National Hurricane Center forecasters are monitoring an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms and gale-force winds located over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean, between the Azores and Canary Islands. These showers are associated with a complex non-tropical area of low pressure. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics during the next couple of days while it moves little. By late in the week, however, the system is expected to move northeastward over cooler waters, ending its chances of subtropical development. NHC forecasters are giving this system just a 10 percent chance for subtropical development over the next seven days.
Earliest Sunrises of the Year
With the summer solstice just over two weeks away, we have reached the point of the year that contains the earliest sunrises. In Austin, sunrise June 6th-16th will be at 6:28 am CDT. The sun will begin to rise a couple of minutes later during the second half of the month. By the way, the latest sunsets of the year will take place in late June and early July.