Dry Pattern Will Continue this Week as Summer-Like Temperatures Make a Return

March 16, 2026

Between Sunday and Monday, it seems our weather went from summer to winter. Sunday’s dry line allowed temperatures across Central Texas and the Hill Country to warm into the mid and upper 90s. Austin-Camp Mabry’s temperature reached 97 degrees, just one degree shy of the all-time March temperature. Austin-Bergstrom’s high temperature of 98 degrees matched the all-time March high temperature of 98 degrees set in 1971. A strong cold front pushed through the area late Sunday through Sunday evening, with strong winds gusting up to 50-55 mph at several locations. Much colder air followed the cold front Sunday night. Lows Monday morning ranged from the mid-30s across the Hill Country, to the upper 30s to low 40s across Central Texas, to the mid and upper 40s across the coastal plains. Many locations across Central Texas, including Austin, experienced a 24-hour temperature change of more than 50 degrees, making this one of the largest 24-hour changes in temperature on record.

Strong winds, with gusts to 25-35 mph, were still in place across the region Monday afternoon in the wake of Sunday’s cold front. These strong winds are forecast to slowly decrease Monday afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes. Wind speeds are forecast to decrease to around 10-15 mph by late afternoon and continue in that range through Monday night. The combination of gusty winds and very low relative humidity readings will cause a very high fire danger through Monday evening. As a result, the National Weather Service will keep a Red Flag Warning in place for the Hill Country, Central Texas, and coastal regions through 8 pm.

  • Any fires that develop could be difficult to control and spread rapidly with these conditions. Avoid any outdoor activities that could inadvertently cause wildfires.

Monday night is shaping up to be the coldest night of this cold spell, with a light freeze expected across the Hill Country and most of Central Texas as wind speeds decrease. Precautions should be taken for tender and newly planted vegetation.

  • Lows Tuesday morning are forecast to be near 30-32 degrees across the Hill Country, in the low and mid-30s across Central Texas, and in the mid-30s across the middle Texas coast

Sunny and warmer weather is forecast Tuesday as southerly breezes return to the region. Wind speeds of 10-15 mph are predicted by the afternoon. With very dry air still in place, the combination of breezy conditions and dry air is expected to cause near-critical fire weather conditions across the region. Fire weather conditions are forecast to slowly improve mid and late week when relative humidity levels increase.

Sunny, dry, and much warmer weather is forecast Wednesday, continuing through the upcoming weekend as an unusually strong heat dome sets up across the western and southwestern U.S. This heat dome is expected to be of the magnitude normally seen in the middle of summer, not in early spring. It is expected to bring record-breaking heat to much of the West late week and through the weekend.

Our region looks to get in on some of the unseasonable heat this weekend as well. Forecasts call for the center of the heat dome to drift as far east as New Mexico and Far West Texas Friday through Sunday before it finally weakens and drifts back to the west early next week.

  • High temperatures Thursday are predicted to be in the mid-80s
  • High temperatures Friday through Sunday are forecast to be in the low and mid-90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the upper 80s to 90 degrees towards the coast

The outlook for next week calls for continued warm weather with little to no chance for rain. Forecasts call of the western heat dome to weaken and spread out across the southern U.S., keeping the storm track well to the north of Texas. High temperatures Monday through Thursday are forecast to be around 88-90 degrees. Slightly cooler temperatures should arrive late next week into next weekend.

Longer-range forecasts are hinting at a small chance for rain developing at the end of the month.

The Start of Astronomical Spring

The first day of spring 2026 will occur this Friday, March 20th, at 9:46 am CDT. In the Northern Hemisphere, the spring equinox (also called the March equinox or vernal equinox across the globe) occurs when the Sun crosses the celestial equator going south to north. On the March equinox, the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere receive roughly equal amounts of sunlight; neither hemisphere is tilted more toward or away from the Sun than the other.

Have a good week!

Bob