Monitoring an Area of Disturbed Weather in the Southwest Gulf

OCT. 5, 2026

The National Hurricane Center is closely monitoring a trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf that is producing a large area of disorganized clouds, showers, and thunderstorms.

NOAA/Colorado State University/CIRA 10/05/2026 3:30 pm CDT

There is no closed low level circulation at the current time.

Although environmental conditions are currently only marginally conducive for tropical development, conditions are forecast to improve over the next few days and gradual development appears likely. NHC forecasters all for a tropical depression is to form over the southwestern Gulf sometime during the middle part of this week. The probability for development is at 80 percent.

After mid-week, the system is forecast to the north, with a track in the general direction of the U.S. Gulf coast, from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. With a ridge of high pressure building over Texas and a trough of low pressure tracking east across the southeastern U.S., the chances for this system to move toward Texas appear quite low.

Since this is still just an area of disturbed weather and not yet a tropical system, the National Hurricane Center is not issuing an official forecast track just yet. For guidance purposes, I do want to point out the Google Deepmind AI ensemble solution, one of the best performing tropical forecast solutions this year, is showing an increasingly tight clustering of track solutions in the general direction of the central and eastern Gulf coast for late this week and into the weekend.

For the Texas coast, elevated tides will be possible coast later this week as stronger northeasterly winds develop over the northwest Gulf. As of now, tides do not look to reach levels that would produce significant coastal flooding, but some minor flooding at times of high tide will be possible late week.

Weather conditions across the Hill Country, Central Texas, and the middle Texas coast look to stay sunny and dry through late week and the upcoming weekend as the developing tropical system pulls most of the available moisture well east Texas.

Bob