No Significant Rain or Cooler Weather on the Horizon

OCT. 6, 2025

No substantial change in the weather is expected this week as a summer-like weather pattern looks to continue. Forecast data is still not showing that first good cold front of autumn to arrive anytime soon.

Monday’s weather maps showed a broad ridge of high pressure covering Texas and the eastern half of the country, while a trough of low pressure covered the west. The ridge is helping to produce the sunny, warm, and summer-like pattern across Texas. Forecast model data calls for the ridge to remain over Texas through late next week, then slowly shift to the southwest. With the ridge overhead, the chance for any substantial rain through late next week will be quite remote.

In the near term, there will be a very slight chance for a few spotty rain showers across the coastal region Monday,  and across the entire region Tuesday into Wednesday.

For Monday afternoon, an area of enhanced tropical moisture is forecast to spread inland to the coastal plains, and will cause a 20 percent chance for a few spotty rain showers and isolated rain showers for areas south of Interstate 10. While most locations will stay dry, a few isolated totals to near a tenth of an inch will be possible.

Tuesday into Wednesday, there will be a less than 20 percent chance for the development of spotty rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region as a weak cold front sinks to the south out of North Texas and stalls somewhere to the north of Interstate 10. While the atmosphere will be fairly stable, there may be just enough convergence along the cold front for the development of a few spotty afternoon showers. Most areas will stay dry but a few spotty totals to near a tenth of an inch will be possible.

The cold front moving out of North Texas will primarily cause a shift in the wind direction. Its impact on sensible weather will be minimal. The cool air associated with this boundary will lag behind the front by a few hundred miles and will stall before any noteworthy cooler air can progress into the Hill Country and Central Texas.

Little change in the temperature pattern is forecast this week or for this coming weekend.

• Daily high temperatures through Sunday are forecast to be in the upper 80s to 90 degrees across the Hill Country, in the low to mid-90s across Central Texas, and be in the low 90s across the coastal plains
• Daily low temperatures through Friday morning will range from the mid-60s across the Hill Country, to the low 70s near the coast
• Low temperatures Saturday and Sunday mornings will generally be in the low and mid-60s

The outlook for next week calls for more sunny, dry, and unseasonably warm weather. Expect little change in the temperature, with highs remaining in the low to mid-90s. Looking out around the 18^th, high temperatures are predicted to lower about 2-3 degrees as the ridge of high pressure shifts away from Texas. But still no significant cooldown is on the horizon.

Tropical Weather Outlook

The National Hurricane Center is noting a trough of low pressure has developed over the northwestern Caribbean

Sea and is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move west across the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and early Tuesday, then track over the Bay of Campeche late Tuesday through Wednesday. Some slow development of this system will be possible over the Bay of Campeche around the middle before the system moves inland over southern Mexico. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are likely across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and southern Mexico during the next few days. NHC forecasters are giving this system just a 10 percent chance for tropical development over the next two days.

This system poses no threat to the Texas coast.

NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 10-06-2025 2:50 pm CDT

NHC forecasters note visible satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure located over the tropical central Atlantic is gradually becoming better organized. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for slow development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while it moves quickly west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. This system is expected to be near or north of the

northern Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday, and interests there should monitor its progress. This system poses little threat to the Gulf. NHC forecasters are giving this system an 80 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

The October Full Harvest Supermoon

October’s full Harvest Moon will loom large over the eastern horizon at sunset Monday night! Here’s what you need to know before the first supermoon of 2025 rises to dominate the night sky with a magnificent display of moonlight.

The full moon phase will occur at 10:48 pm CDT, when the lunar disk will appear fully lit opposite the sun in Earth’s sky, shining next to the stars of the constellation Pisces with the planet Saturn gleaming to its upper right.

This October’s full moon is known as the Harvest Moon, owing to its proximity to the autumn equinox — when farmers would labor under the light of the moon to gather their crops long before artificial light was invented. It also coincides with the moon’s closest approach to Earth in its 27-day orbit, giving rise to a spectacular supermoon, which will appear subtly larger and brighter than usual as it rises above the eastern horizon. This will  be the largest and brightest full Moon of the year so far and the first supermoon since November 2024!

Have a good week!

Bob