Strong Cold Front Arriving Tuesday, Bringing Much Colder Air

OCT. 27, 2025

A large area of rain and thunderstorms spread across the area late Friday through Saturday morning, with another area of rain occurring Saturday night. Weekend totals generally averaged just under an inch across the western half of the Hill Country, and between 1 and 3 inches across the eastern half. Across Central Texas, most totals ranged between 1 and 2.5 inches. Across the middle Texas coast, totals generally ranged between 1 and 1. 5 inches. LCRA’s highest gauged total from the weekend was 4.16 inches, at a gauge located in western Lampasas County, about 6 miles east of Bend. This rain event ended a streak of 46 consecutive days with no rain at Austin-Camp Mabry. The streak ranks as the 15^th longest stretch with zero rain dating back to 1897.

Our first strong cold front of the season will be arriving across the area Tuesday afternoon and evening as a large trough of low pressure digs south out of Canada. In advance of the front, weather conditions will be dry and rather mild. Some patchy fog will be possible will be possible early Tuesday morning for locations east of I-35.

• High temperatures Monday are forecast to generally be in the upper 80s
• Lows Tuesday morning will range from the low and mid-60s across the Hill Country, to the upper 60s near the coast

The strong cold front is forecast to spread across the Hill Country Tuesday morning and is predicted to reach the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor around midday. The front should continue pushing to the southeast Tuesday afternoon, moving off the coast Tuesday evening. No rain is forecast with the front when it moves across the Hill Country and the I-35 corridor. However, it appears there may be just enough moisture in place to cause the development of a few showers and isolated thunderstorms for areas east of I-35, down to the coast. The probability for rain will be near 20-30 percent. Rain amounts, if any, should total less than a quarter inch. The chance for rain will quickly end behind the front. A strong pressure gradient behind the front is expected to cause the wind to become strong and gusty Tuesday afternoon, Tuesday night, and Wednesday. Expect northwesterly winds with speeds of 10-20 mph and gusts to 30 mph.

Areas behind the front Tuesday will trend cooler, with readings holding in the 70s. In advance of the front, readings are forecast to reach the upper 80s to low 90s.

Sunny and dry weather is forecast Wednesday through Friday. There will be a very high fire danger Wednesday. See the fire weather section below for more details. The big weather news this week will be the coolest temperatures so far this fall taking place Thursday and Friday mornings. Some of the traditional cold spots across the Hill Country and along the Escarpment could even see readings close to freezing on those two mornings.

• Lows Wednesday morning will include the mid-40s across the Hill Country, the upper 40s to low 50s across Central Texas, and the mid-50s across the coastal plains
• Lows Thursday and Friday mornings are forecast to be in the upper 30s to low 40s across the Hill Country, the low and mid-40s across Central Texas, and the mid to upper 40s across the coastal area
• High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 60s. Highs should warm to the low and mid-70s on Thursday and Friday.

 

• Halloween is looking to be nearly perfect for Trick or Treaters, with temperatures Friday evening forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s.

For the upcoming weekend, milder temperatures are forecast as southerly breezes return to the area. Under a sunny sky, expect highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Low temperatures are predicted to be in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Looking ahead to next week, sunny, dry, and mild weather is forecast as our region comes under the influence of a stable ridge of high pressure. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low and mid-80s, with lows in the upper 50s to low and mid-60s.

Critical Fire Weather Conditions Expected Wednesday

Strong winds of 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph are forecast across the region Wednesday. In addition, relative humidity readings are predicted to fall to between 15 and 25 percent in the afternoon. Despite the recent rain, conditions will be favorable for the spread of any developing wildfire.

The National Weather Service has posted a Fire Weather Watch for the entire region from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. A Fire Weather Watch is issued whenever critical fire weather conditions are expected within the next 48 hours.

The NWS indicates a Red Flag Warning will likely be issued for at least a portion of the area Wednesday if the forecast holds steady.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical cyclone development is not expected across the Gulf over the next seven days.

All eyes are on Category 5 Hurricane Melissa.

As of 1 pm CDT, the eye of Hurricane Melissa was located about 145 miles southwest of Kingston, Jamaica. Melissa was moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph. A slow turn toward the northwest and north is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northeast and a faster forward speed on Tuesday. A northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move over Jamaica Monday night and early Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.

Reports from an Air force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that maximum sustained winds are now near 175 mph with higher gusts!  Melissa is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica on Tuesday.  However, Melissa is expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an extremely powerful major hurricane, and will still be at hurricane strength when it moves across the southeastern Bahamas.

NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 10-27-25 2:20 pm CDT

Time Change Weekend

Daylight Saving Time will be coming to an end this Sunday, November 2^nd, at 2 am. At that time or before we go to bed, we’ll “fall back,” by setting out clocks back one hour and gaining an extra hour. With the change, it will get darker earlier in the evening and it will be lighter earlier in the morning.

A Confirmed Tornado from Friday Night

After conducting a storm survey, the National Weather Service confirmed a weak tornado affected parts of Kendall and Comal Counties late Friday evening. According to the NWS, the tornado first touched down at 11:35 p.m. on the west side of FM 3551 in eastern Kendall County, about four miles southeast of the unincorporated community of Kendalia. It produced sporadic tree damage as it traveled east through rural Kendall County. After moving into Comal County, the tornado moved east-southeast into the Indian Hill subdivision, where it caused tree, fence, and shingle damage. Before dissipating, the tornado continued straight east into Tanglewood Trail and the northern sections of Mystic Shores, just northwest of Canyon Lake. The tornado was on the ground for a total of 23 minutes, covering a distance of 20.1 miles.

The tornado was rated as an EF1, with an estimated peak wind of 110 mph. Fortunately, no injuries or fatalities were reported.

Have a good week!

Bob