Strong to Severe Storms and Heavy Rain Possible Friday Night

OCT. 24, 2025

An active period of weather is forecast across the region beginning late Friday afternoon, continuing through Saturday night. The active weather will develop as a trough of low pressure moves from the Four Corners region to the southern Plains states, pulling considerable moisture north from the Gulf, while creating favorable atmospheric conditions for showers and thunderstorms. The most critical period for strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rain looks to occur between Friday evening and daybreak Saturday morning. This will be followed by a second period of showers and possibly strong to severe thunderstorms across Central Texas and the coastal region Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.

For Friday Afternoon

An area of light rain showers developed Friday morning across the northern Hill Country, between San Angelo and Brownwood, as a weak disturbance moved over the area. Additional light showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm look to continue across this area through late afternoon. Across the rest of the region, scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop as the atmosphere becomes increasingly moist and unstable. The probability for rain at any given location will be near 30-40 percent. Expect breezy southerly winds, with gust to 25 mph.

Friday Evening through Saturday Morning

 High resolution forecasts call for a large area of thunderstorms to develop across the Permian Basin mid to late afternoon. The thunderstorms are predicted to increase in area coverage and transition into a large thunderstorm complex as they push east into a moist and increasingly unstable atmosphere. The leading edge of the thunderstorms is forecast to reach the western Hill Country early Friday evening, spreading east over the Hill Country through the evening hours. The storms are forecast to reach the Austin/Intestate 35 corridor close to midnight, then spread over the area between Austin and the coast from midnight till around daybreak Saturday.

Forecasts show a potential for some of the storms Friday night to be strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire region under a Slight Risk, or 2 out of 5 risk, for severe thunderstorms through 7 am Saturday. The primary severe weather threats will be large hail and damaging winds with gust to near 75 mph. However, in this particular atmospheric setup, a couple of isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

Moderate to heavy rain is forecast with the complex of storms as it moves over the area Friday night into Saturday morning. Some pockets of locally heavy rain will be possible. The National Weather Service is forecasting totals through mid-morning Saturday to generally average between 1 and 3 inches, with isolated totals to near 4 inches possible. The rains will have the potential to cause rapid runoff and could lead to the possibility of some flooding. The National Weather Service has posted a Flood Watch for the Hill Country and most of Central Texas beginning 7 pm Friday, continuing through early Saturday afternoon.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 am Monday:

Midday Saturday through Early Sunday Morning

Forecasts indicate a break in the rain will develop Saturday morning as the line of storms weakens and moves off the coast. However, another area of rain and scattered thunderstorms is forecast to develop across the Hill Country Saturday afternoon as an atmospheric disturbance moves over the area from the west. This area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to spread east across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast late Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening. The majority of the rain should exit the region by midnight Saturday night. This second round of rain is not expected to be anywhere near as heavy as what is forecast Friday night. Most totals should average less than a half inch.

Sunday and Early Next Week

Clouds are forecast to clear Sunday morning as the upper trough exits to the northeast.  A mostly sunny sky is forecast Sunday afternoon and again on Monday. Expect high temperatures both days to be in the mid and upper 80s.

Tuesday through Late Next Week

A Pacific cold front is forecast to push south across the region early Tuesday. A couple of light showers will be possible along the cold front, but most areas should stay dry. A stronger cold front is predicted to push south across the area late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening that will bring the coldest air so far this autumn. No rain is forecast with the front. Sunny and dry weather is predicted Wednesday, continuing through the following weekend.

High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will range from the upper 60s across the Hill Country, to the mid-70s near the coast. Highs are forecast to rise to the upper 70s to low 80s late week and into the weekend.

Lows Wednesday and Thursday mornings are forecast to be in the low and mid-40s across the Hill Country, and in the upper 40s across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast. Low temperatures in the 40s and 50s should continue into next weekend.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions are quiet across the Gulf and tropical cyclone development is not expected over the next seven days.

Forecasters continue to closely monitor Tropical Storm Melissa, located over the southern Caribbean Sea, about 200 miles southeast of Jamaica. Melissa has recently begun strengthening and has top winds of 60 mph. Further strengthening is forecast today, followed by rapid intensification this weekend. Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday and a major hurricane by Sunday.

Melissa will not pose a threat to the western Gulf and the Texas coast.

Have a good weekend!

Bob