The Hot and Dry Pattern Will Drag On into Late Next Week

SEPT. 10, 2026

No significant changes to the hot and dry weather pattern can be expected over the next week. Forecasts indicate our region will continue under the influence of a broad, late summer heat dome, which will cause more triple-digit temperatures and little to no rain. There are beginning to be some signs the heat dome will start to weaken late next week, allowing a weak cold front to sink south across Texas. While this won’t be the first strong cold front of autumn, the front is expected to allow for “less hot temperatures” the week of the 21st.

For Thursday, there will be a couple of items to take note of.  Similar to the past couple of days, a weakness in the heat dome over the northern Gulf and southeast Texas will allow a few scattered rain showers and thunderstorms to develop across the coastal area and move to the north. Some of the showers may make it as far inland as the Interstate 35 corridor. The probability for rain will be near 40 percent across the coastal plains and near 20 percent across Central Texas. Spotty totals to near a half inch will be possible.

Forecasters will also be monitoring parts of West and Northwest Texas where a weak cold front will be sagging to the south. The front is forecast to stall just south of the Red River and middle Panhandle. Forecasts call for a few showers and thunderstorms to develop along the cold front Thursday afternoon, with some of the storms tracking as far south as the Concho Valley and areas east to near San Saba. The probability for rain late Thursday into Thursday evening will be near 20 percent. Spotty totals to around a half inch are forecast.

Otherwise, Thursday’s weather will once again be sunny and quite hot. High temperatures are forecast to be in the mid and upper 90s across the Hill Country, near 100-102 degrees across Central Texas, and in the mid-90s across the coastal plains.

For Friday, the weekend, and next week, forecast solutions call for the center of the heat dome to move from the Desert Southwest to the southern Plains, and eventually the southeastern U.S. For our region, it will mean more of the same as sinking air will continue to produce a hot and dry weather pattern. Forecasts indicate a weakness in the heat dome will continue over the northwestern Gulf through the period, allowing for the development of more spotty rain showers across the coastal plains. The probability for rain each day will be near 20-30 percent.

  • High temperatures Friday through late next week are forecast to be in the upper 90s across the Hill Country, near 100-102 degrees across Central Texas, and in the mid-90s across the coastal plains.

As mentioned at the top, some changes in the weather look to take place next weekend when the center of the heat dome is forecast to shift to the western U.S., allowing a significant trough of low pressure to develop across the Great Lakes and northeastern U.S. This trough will allow a cold front to push south out of Canada. The front is forecast to push south across Texas sometime around next Saturday. A few showers are forecast with the front, but unfortunately, significant rain is not expected. Slightly cooler air is forecast in the wake of the front, with high temperatures falling to around 90-92 degrees. Lows are forecast to be mostly in the low 70s. These “less hot” temperatures are forecast to continue into the week of September 21st.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions remain unusually quiet across the tropical Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf. Conditions are forecast to remain unfavorable for tropical development over the next seven days.

Summer 2026 was a Scorcher Across Texas

NOAA released the August and summer climate statistics for Texas this past Tuesday. The data showed summer 2026’s average temperature to be 84.4 degrees, ranking as the fourth hottest summer on record! Only the summers of 2011, 2022, and 2023 were hotter. For Texas, summer 2026 was relatively wet thanks to the heavy July rains.

The month of August ranked as the third hottest and the third driest on record for Texas.

For Austin, Camp Mabry recorded its 11th hottest and 25th wettest summer on record. August 2026 was the 5th warmest and 28th driest on record.

summer26

Bob