The Unusual Warm and Dry Pattern is Expected to Continue for Another Week

OCT. 10, 2025

An unusually dry and unseasonably warm weather pattern continues. The primary culprit for the unusual weather this month has been a large ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere that has remained situated over Texas and the south-central U.S. Sinking air associated with the ridge has caused warm and rain-free weather for the past several weeks. Forecast solutions call for the ridge to remain over Texas for about another week, meaning there will be little overall change in the weather. No rain is expected through late next week while a sunny to mostly sunny continues.

At the surface, a weak cold front moved across the area Thursday, shifting winds to the northeast and bringing a push of drier air. Forecasts call for this dry air to remain in place into Sunday before southeasterly breezes pull slightly more humid air inland from the Gulf beginning late Sunday.

The dry air will allow temperatures to cool nicely to fall-like levels Saturday and Sunday mornings. Slightly higher readings can be expected next week.

• Lows Saturday and Sunday mornings are predicted to reach the mid and upper 50s across the Hill Country, the upper 50s to low 60s across Central Texas, and the low 60s across the coastal plains
• Lows next Monday through Saturday mornings will include the low 60s across the Hill Country and the mid-60s at most other locations

Little change in afternoon temperatures is forecast through late next week. Highs will include the upper 80s to 90 degrees across the Hill Country, and near 90-94 degrees across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast.

Some small changes in the weather are forecast to finally begin to take place next weekend. Forecast solutions call for the stubborn ridge of high pressure over Texas to finally begin weakening. The ridge is forecast to slide southeast to cover the Gulf, the Caribbean Sea, and northern Mexico beginning around Monday October 20^th. This change in the strengthen and position of the ridge will bring about less hot daytime and slightly lower nighttime temperatures. For the week of October 20^th, high temperatures are predicted to fall to the low and mid-80s, with nighttime temperatures in the low and mid-60s. Unfortunately, this change in the pattern is not expected to bring a significant chance for rain to our region through the week of the 20^th.

Elevated Fire Weather Conditions Friday through Sunday

With little to no rain falling across Central Texas in September and October, Flash Drought conditions have developed. Very dry air in place Friday afternoon will cause minimum relative humidity levels to fall to around 25-30 percent across much of the area both days. Vegetation and fuels remain very dry and drought stressed—especially along and east of Interstate 35. The Texas A&M Forest Service Fire Danger forecast calls for a moderate to high fire danger for areas along and east of Interstate 35 Friday and Saturday. A moderate fire danger is forecast across the Hill Country, Central Texas, and coastal regions Sunday. Please exercise caution when working with open flames/equipment that can cause any sparks.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions are quiet across the Gulf and the Caribbean Sea. Tropical cyclone development is not expected across these areas over the next seven days.

In the tropical Atlantic, Tropical Storm Jerry is located about 140 miles north of the northern Leeward Islands and is moving to the northwest at 16 mph. A turn toward the northeast and east-northeast is forecast Sunday night and Monday. On this path, Jerry is predicted to pass just east of Bermuda late Sunday.

Tropical Storm Karen developed early Friday morning to the northwest of the northernmost Azores Islands, in the northeastern Atlantic. Top winds are near 45 mph. Karen is moving to the northeast at 13 mph. The system is expected to become a post-tropical low Friday night or early Saturday and open into a trough soon thereafter.

La Nina Has Returned

For the fifth time in six years, La Niña has returned to the waters of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced on Thursday. The La Niña isn’t expected to be very strong and isn’t forecast to last very long. A La Niña advisory has been issued, signifying the official start to La Niña conditions. The pattern is marked by a tongue of cooler-than-average sea temperatures extending from the west coast of South America to the western Pacific, reaching just past the International Date Line.

NOAA forecasters call for the Pacific to return to ENSO-neutral sometime between January and March, with a possible shift to El Niño later in 2026.

La Nina’s tend to bring a drier and milder than normal weather pattern to most of Texas in the fall and winter months. With La Nina’s recent development, National Weather Service forecasts show increased odds rainfall will remain below normal and temperatures will average above normal across Texas between October and late February.

Have a great weekend!

Bob