The Warm and Dry Pattern Will Continue. Some Changes will be Possible Next Week

OCT. 13, 2025

The outlook for this week can be summed up by stating “more of the same.” Monday’s weather maps showed a stalled subtropical ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere stretching from northern Mexico to the middle Mississippi Valley region. The ridge continues to produce a sunny, dry, and summer-like weather pattern across the region. Monday’s forecast solutions call for the ridge to remain over Texas through Friday, causing a pattern of more unseasonably warm days with pleasant nights.

Little day to day change in the temperature is forecast Monday afternoon through Friday.

• Daily high temperatures will include the upper 80s to 90 degrees across the Hill Country, the low 90s across the coastal plains, and the low to mid-90s across the Austin/Central Texas area
• Daily low temperatures Tuesday through Friday mornings will range from the upper 50s to low 60s across the Hill Country, to the mid-60s across the coastal region

Some changes in the weather pattern do look to take place this coming weekend when the stubborn ridge of high pressure finally gets nudged to the east by a large trough of low pressure moving out of the Rockies. Meanwhile, a weak cold front connected to the upper trough is predicted to push into West Texas Saturday. Forecasts call for the front to slowly push southeast across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, reaching the coastal region on Sunday. Conditions appear marginally favorable for the development of a few light rain showers along and just behind the cold front as it moves to the southeast. The probability for rain at any given location will only be near 20 percent, and rain amounts should average less than a tenth of an inch.

The chance for rain should end from west to east on Sunday as the cold front makes its way south to the coast.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm, Monday, 10/20

Despite the weak cold front, weekend high temperatures are predicted to still be near 88-90 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and near 90-92 degrees across the coastal region. Low temperatures are forecast to generally be in the low and mid-60s.

Looking ahead to next week, mostly sunny and dry weather is forecast Monday through Wednesday in the wake of the weak cold front. Daily high temperatures are predicted to hold around 90 degrees. Low temperatures should remain in the low and mid-60s.

A chance for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms looks to develop next Thursday and Friday when another cold front gets pushed south into Texas. At the same time, a trough of low pressure is forecast to hang back over the Desert Southwest. Some of the forecast indicate the potential for rain amounts of a quarter to a half inch.

It appears this next front will have a little more cool air behind it than the one forecast for this weekend. High temperatures are forecast to fall to the mid and upper 80s, while lows stay in the low and mid-60s.

Unfortunately, the long-range forecast data still doesn’t call for any strong cold fronts to move through our area over the next ten-day to two-week period.

Fire Weather Conditions

According to the Texas A&M Forest Service, there will be a moderate fire danger across the entire region this week. Minimum afternoon relative humidity levels are predicted to fall to between 35 and 45 percent throughout the week. Fuels/vegetation remained stressed—especially for areas along and east of I-35. Fortunately, wind speeds this week are forecast to remain fairly low, generally in the range of 5-12 mph.

Extra caution should be exercised with any equipment which might create any sort of spark or flame.

Tropical Weather Update

Weather conditions remain quite across the Gulf and the Caribbean Sea and tropical cyclone development is not forecast across this area over the next seven days.

In the central tropical Atlantic, a strong tropical wave moving to the west developed into Tropical Storm Lorenzo early Monday morning. As early Monday afternoon, Lorenzo was centered about 1845 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving to the northwest at 16 mph. Top winds were near 50 mph. Lorenzo is forecast to turn north into the open Atlantic Tuesday and should not pose a threat to any land area.

Elsewhere, conditions are quiet.

It’s Been a Near-Record Warm October

I don’t need to tell you October has so far been unusually warm. Despite the cooler mornings, data through the 12^th shows the temperature has still averaged between 6 and 8 degrees above normal across the Austin/Central Texas area, and between 4 and 6 degrees above normal across the Hill Country!

In Austin, Camp Mabry’s October temperature through the 12^th has averaged 81.3 degrees, which is 6.4 degrees above normal. Looking at the historical record, the first 12 days tie for the second warmest October 1-12 on record. The same period in 1931had an average temperature of 81.4 degrees.

Any way you slice it, October’s temperatures shouldn’t be this warm.

Have a good week!

Bob