Warm this Week. A Strong Cold Front to Bring Fall-Like Weather this Weekend

OCT. 12, 2026

Warm, humid, summer-like weather has returned this week thanks to a strengthening flow off the Gulf. However, cooler, fall-like weather conditions look to arrive Friday and this weekend behind a strong cold front.

Monday’s weather maps showed a large ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere covering Texas, the south- central U.S., and the Gulf, keeping our weather warm and somewhat stable. Out west, a large trough of low pressure was pushing inland along the West Coast. This feature is forecast to slowly move east across the Rockies late Monday through Wednesday, then merge with another trough across southern Canada late week. This merged trough will help drive the first significant cold front of the fall season south across Texas on Friday.

For Monday and Tuesday, expect a partly to mostly cloudy sky across the region. With increasing moisture levels in the lower atmosphere, scattered rain showers and a couple of isolated thunderstorms will be possible—mainly for areas along and to the east of Interstate 35. The highest probability for rain (40-50 percent) will be for the coastal region. For Central Texas, the probability for rain will be near 20-30 percent. Rain amounts each day are forecast to average less than a quarter inch.

  • High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will include the upper 80s to low 90s across the Hill Country, the low and mid-90s across Central Texas, and the lower 90s across the coastal plains
  • Lows Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will generally be in the low and mid-70s

For Wednesday, there will be a slight chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms—but this time, mainly across the Hill Country region where Pacific moisture is forecast to increase. The probability for rain will only be near 20 percent. Elsewhere, little to no rain is forecast due to a pocket of drier air spread inland off the Gulf. This drier air is expected to limit the development of showers.

  • High temperatures Wednesday are predicted to be mostly in the low 90s.

Thursday’s weather is shaping up to be mostly sunny, warm, and dry as the pocket of dry air remains over the area.

  • High temperatures Thursday are forecast to be near 90-92 degrees

A strong cold front is forecast to spread across Texas late Thursday into Friday morning as the two troughs mentioned earlier merge. Forecasts call for the cold front to push southeast across West and Northwest Texas Thursday night, with the front arriving in the Austin area before daybreak Friday. The front should move off the middle Texas coast by noon Friday. A few spotty rain showers may accompany the cold front, but no significant rain is forecast.

Mostly sunny, windy, and much cooler weather is predicted behind the cold front Friday through Friday night. Expect a north wind with speeds of 15-25 mph, with occasional higher gusts.

  • High temperatures Friday are predicted to reach the mid-70s across the Hill Country, the upper 70s to 80 degrees across Central Texas, with low to mid-80s near the coast
  • Lows Saturday morning are forecast to be in the low 50s across the Hill Country, the mid and upper 50s across Central Texas, and be near 60 degrees towards the coast

A mostly sunny to sunny sky is forecast this coming weekend in the wake of the cold front.

  • High temperatures Saturday are predicted to be mid and upper 70s, warming to near 80 degrees on Sunday
  • Lows Sunday morning will range from the upper 40s across the Hill Country, to the upper 50s near the coast
  • Lows Monday morning will be in the upper 50s to low 60s

Looking out into next week, there will be a slight chance to a chance for rain showers Monday and Tuesday as an overrunning pattern sets up across the area. Expect a mostly cloudy to cloudy sky both days. High temperatures will be in the low 80s.

Mostly sunny and mild weather will follow next Wednesday through Friday. Expect high temperatures to be mostly in the mid-80s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions are quiet across the Gulf and the Caribbean Sea. There are no systems in place which pose a threat for tropical development over the next seven days.

Out across the eastern tropical Atlantic, an elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms on its east side, extending toward the westernmost Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for development of this system during the next day or so before upper-level winds become too strong for any further development on Tuesday.

NHC forecasters are giving this system just a 20 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

Have a great week!

Bob