Weather to Stay Generally Dry for Another Week. No Significant Temperature Change Expected

OCT. 17, 2025

It’s been a never-ending summer so far this October. And while a dramatic change to fall weather is not on the near-term horizon, some cracks in the persistent summer pattern are finally beginning to show. Some subtle changes in the weather pattern are forecast to take place this weekend and next week. Unfortunately, these small changes are not expected to bring our region any significant rain.

Friday’s weather maps showed the ridge of high pressure, which has been over Texas for the past couple of weeks, has been nudged a little more to the east, thanks to a trough of low pressure located over the Four Corners region. This trough if forecast to lift to the northeast over the weekend and will help to push a Pacific cold front across the state.

In advance of the trough and cold front, moist air flowing north from the Gulf is bringing a return of higher relative humidity levels to our region. In addition, the increased moisture is expected to cause the development of a few scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms over the area along and south of Interstate 10 Friday afternoon . The probability for rain will be near 30 percent. Unfortunately, no rain is forecast across the rest of the region. Friday’s weather will again be sunny and warm. The higher moisture levels will keep Friday night’s temperature a bit warmer, compared to past few nights.

• Friday’s high temperature will include the upper 80s across the Hill Country, the low 90s across Central Texas, and the upper 80s to 90 degrees across the coastal plains
• Lows Saturday morning are forecast to be in the mid and upper 60s across the Hill Country, and be near 70-72 degrees at most other locations

Forecasts call for the Pacific cold front to push southeast across the Hill Country Saturday afternoon, reaching the Austin and Central Texas region Saturday evening. The front is predicted to push off the middle Texas coast late Saturday night. A few isolated rain showers may develop just ahead of and along the cold front when it moves across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Saturday, but no significant rain is forecast. A better chance for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms is forecast for the coastal plains region (a 40 percent chance) Saturday afternoon where moisture will be move plentiful. Rain amounts will stay below a quarter inch. Expect a mostly sunny sky on Saturday and a sunny sky on Sunday.

Readings ahead of the cold front are predicted to be quite warm. Noticeably cooler readings look to follow the cold front Saturday night through Sunday night.

• High temperatures Saturday are forecast to be in the mid-90s across Central Texas, and in the low 90s at most other locations
• Lows Sunday morning will include the upper 50s across the Hill Country, the low and mid-60s across Central Texas, and be close to 70 degrees across the coastal plains
• High temperatures Sunday will range from the low 80s across the Hill Country, to the upper 80s across the coastal plains
• Lows Monday morning are predicted to be in the low and mid-50s across the Hill Country, the upper 50s across Central Texas, and the low 60s across the coastal region

The cooler temperatures are not expected to hang around into next week. In fact, forecasts call for the development of gusty southwesterly winds of 10-15 mph on Monday.  This will help push high temperatures into the upper 80s to low 90s. In addition, Monday’s gusty winds in combination with the ongoing dry conditions and very dry and stressed vegetation will pose an elevated risk for wildfires for much of the area.

Forecasts call for a weak cold front to sink to the south and stall across Central Texas on Tuesday. The front is predicted to move back to the north on Wednesday, having little impact on our region’s weather. The weather next Tuesday through Friday is predicted to be mostly sunny, warm, and rain-free. Daily high temperatures are forecast to be near 88-90 degrees. Overnight lows will range from the low 60s across the Hill Country, to the upper 60s near the coast.

Looking out a bit further, forecast solutions call for fairly strong trough of low pressure to push east across the Plains states around the 27^th and 28^th, pushing a cold front south into Texas and causing a chance for rain the first half of the week. Slightly cooler temperatures should follow the front, with high temperatures falling to the upper 70s and low 80s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions remain quiet across the Gulf and tropical cyclone development is not expected here over the next seven days.

National Hurricane Center forecasters are monitoring a tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic, located more than 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands. This system is producing a large area of clouds, showers and thunderstorms. NHC indicates gradual development of this system will be possible over the next several days while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph. This system is forecast to reach the eastern Caribbean Sea sometime early next week. Regardless of development, the wave is expected to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Windward Islands late this weekend and then move across the Caribbean Sea much of next week.

NHC forecasters are giving this system a 30 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

NHC is also monitoring a non-tropical area of low pressure located well off the coast of the Northeast United States. There is a slight chance that the system could develop some subtropical characteristics during the weekend before it turns northeastward over cooler waters and weakens early next week. NHC forecasters give this system just a ten percent chance for development over the next couple of days.

Comet Lemmon is Approaching Earth

On Oct. 21st, Comet Lemmon (C/2025 A6) will make its closest approach to Earth. The brightening comet, which was discovered earlier this year, has reached magnitude +4.5, making it an easy target for off-the-shelf cameras and binoculars. At closest approach, the comet will be 0.6 AU away–not super close, but near enough to vault the comet to naked-eye visibility in dark, rural skies at 3rd or 4th magnitude. Even cell phones with night-sky photo settings should be able to catch it.

Look for Comet Lemmon low in the northwestern sky after sunset. Its relatively low altitude in a dark sky will provide opportunities to frame it with a scenic foreground.

NOAA Issues its Outlook for Winter

On Thursday, NOAA issued its winter outlook. In their discussion, NOAA’s forecasters believe the winter pattern will be heavily influenced by a weak La Niña, which should keep the storm track across the Pacific Northwest, southern Canada, and the Great Lakes region. This means a mild winter pattern for Texas and the southern U.S. It also means, fewer opportunities for rain. NOAA’s outlook for Texas shows strong odds the temperature will average milder than normal, and rainfall will average below normal.

The forecasters noted the polar vortex is predicted to be weaker than normal this year, and this could lead to some occasional outbreaks of cold air into the central and eastern U.S.

Have a great weekend!

Bob