Widespread Showers and Scattered Thunderstorms Expected Wednesday. Slightly Cooler Air to Follow

SEPT. 22, 2025

Although autumn began early Monday afternoon, summer-like temperatures look to continue into the middle of the week. However, changes in the weather pattern are finally on the horizon.

For Monday afternoon and Tuesday, mostly sunny, hot, and humid weather will continue as our region remains under the influence of a summer-like heat dome centered over northern Mexico. A weakness in the ridge across Southeast Texas will allow for the development of a few scattered rain showers and thunderstorms—mainly associated with the sea breeze front on both days. The highest probability for rain will be for areas south of Interstate 10, where the chance for rain will be near 40-50 percent. A slight chance for rain will extend inland to the Gonzales, La Grange, and Brenham areas. Spotty totals of 0.25 to 0.5 inches are forecast. Elsewhere, little if any rain can be expected.

• High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will include the low and mid-90s across the Hill Country and coastal regions, with mid and upper 90s across Central Texas. A few spots along the I-35 corridor, including Austin, could reach 100 degrees
• Lows Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will be in the low and mid-70s

Changes in our weather are forecast to take place Wednesday when a weak cold front pushes south out of the southern Plains. The front is forecast to reach the northern Hill Country after midnight Tuesday night, then slide south into Central Texas around daybreak on Wednesday. The front will continue pushing to the south, moving off the middle Texas coast by late afternoon Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the heat dome over Texas is expected to weaken, allowing atmospheric conditions to become favorable for the development of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms. Forecasts now call for a widespread area of rain showers and thunderstorms to develop along and just behind the cold front as it moves to the south Tuesday night into Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are predicted to develop across the Hill Country after midnight Tuesday night, with the activity spreading southeast across Central Texas late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The area of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to spread south across the coastal region Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.

The chance for rain is forecast to end across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions late Wednesday night and across the coastal Plains region Thursday morning.

Convergence along the front plus atmospheric instability may be great enough for a few of the storms to be capable of producing strong and damaging wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the northern Hill Country under a Marginal, or 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms through 7 am Wednesday. SPC has also placed the area south and southeast of Austin under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms after 7 am on Wednesday.

Rain amounts Tuesday into Wednesday have increased from earlier predictions. The National Weather Service forecast now calls for widespread totals of 0.5 to 1 inch across the Hill Country and 1 to 1.25 inches across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm Thursday:

In the wake of Wednesday’s cold front, sunny and dry weather along with slightly cooler temperatures can be expected late week and through the weekend.

• High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be in the mid-80s across the Hill Country, with readings falling to around 80 degrees in the afternoon.
• Across Central Texas, readings are forecast to reach the low 90s Wednesday morning, with readings falling to the mid-80s in the afternoon
• For the middle Texas coast, Wednesday’s temperature should reach the low and mid-90s
• High temperatures Thursday and Friday are predicted to be in the upper 80s
• High temperatures Saturday and Sunday are forecast to be in the upper 80s to 90 degrees

 

• Low temperatures Friday morning will include the upper 50s to low 60s across the Hill Country, the low and mid-60s across Central Texas, and the mid-60s across the coastal Plains
• Lows Saturday and Sunday mornings will generally be in the mid-60s

Looking ahead to next week, forecasts call for a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms developing Monday and Tuesday as a trough of low pressure sets up across the Desert Southwest. This system is expected to pull moisture north into Texas off the Gulf. Rain amounts to around a half inch will be possible. Mostly sunny and dry weather is predicted next Wednesday through Friday.

High temperatures next week are forecast to be in the low 90s, with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions are currently quiet across the Gulf and the Caribbean Sea. However, activity is beginning to pick up across the tropical Atlantic.

Hurricane Gabriel is currently located in the central Atlantic, about 180 miles southeast of Bermuda. The hurricane is moving to the north at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph. with higher gusts. Gabrielle is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gabrielle could intensify even more today, though some weakening should begin by Wednesday.

National Hurricane forecasters indicate shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde Islands continues to increase.  Environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable for development by Tuesday, and a tropical depression is likely to form on Wednesday or Thursday while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward across the central Atlantic. NHC forecasters are giving this system an 80 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days. This system will not pose a threat to the Gulf.

NHC is also keeping a close eye on a tropical wave located about 300 miles east of the Leeward Islands. This system is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some development over the next few days as the wave moves quickly westward to west- northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. By the latter part of this week, the system is expected to slow down and turn more northwestward, and a tropical depression could form late this week when the system is over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean or near the Bahamas. NHC forecasters are giving this system a 50 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days. This system is also not expected to pose a threat to the Gulf.

Have a good week!

Bob