Extreme drought remains despite recent rain
| How Severe is the Drought? |
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| Intensity: |
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D0 Abnormally Dry |
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D3 Drought - Extreme |
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D1 Drought - Moderate |
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D4 Drought - Exceptional |
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D2 Drought - Severe |
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| The U.S Drought Monitor each week classifies the intensity of dry conditions throughout the United States. |
Recent rains have brought some much-needed relief to the area, but have done little to change the overall drought situation. Most of Central Texas and the Colorado River basin remain in the grips of an extreme drought.
The heavy rain that hit central Texas in late January fell mainly below the Highland Lakes. The violent storm on the night of Jan. 24 dropped four to seven inches in eastern Travis, northern Caldwell and western Bastrop counties. The storm dropped one to two inches in the upper basin, and helped increase lakes Buchanan and Travis by about 22,000 acre-feet.
The weather outlook for our basin over the next five months still doesn't offer much hope for significant rain. Despite a few rain events across the Hill Country in November, December and January, the overall pattern hasn't changed. A weak to moderate La Nina is in place and is forecast to cause a pattern of drier than normal weather across most of Texas through late winter. La Nina is forecast to weaken around April, but it's unclear whether there will be significant rainfall in May and June.
The record-setting hot and dry conditions throughout 2011 drastically reduced the flow of water in the tributaries that feed the Highland Lakes, the region's water supply reservoirs. In 2011, the amount of water flowing into the lakes, called inflows, was about 10 percent of average. Inflows in December were 15,830 acre-feet, which is about 23 percent of December’s historic average of 69,883 acre-feet. Even with December’s rainfall, 2011 inflows were the lowest of any year in recorded history at 127,699 acre-feet.
The recent rains produced 32,022 acre-feet of inflows in January, which is 48 percent of January’s historical average of 66,262 acre-feet.
The following table shows the 10 lowest monthly inflows into Highland Lakes on record.
| Rank |
Date |
Inflows
(acre-feet) |
| 1 |
1952 - Aug. |
210 |
| 2 |
1964 - July |
347 |
| 3 |
2011 - Aug. |
403 |
| 4 |
2011 - July |
734 |
| 5 |
2011 - Sept. |
922 |
| 6 |
2011 - June |
1,341 |
| 7 |
1954 - Aug. |
1,592 |
| 8 |
1954 - Sept. |
2,194 |
| 9 |
2006 - Aug. |
2,389 |
| 10 |
2000 - Aug. |
2,584 |
Given this forecast, LCRA’s Board of Directors decided Sept. 21 to ask the state for permission to significantly curtail or cut off water to downstream farmers next year if the levels of lakes Buchanan and Travis remain low. The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) approved the request Dec. 7. You can read more about the issue here.
These record-low inflows, coupled with evaporation and water use from the lakes by customers, means that the combined storage of lakes Travis and Buchanan could drop to 650,000 to 680,000 acre-feet by March 1, according to a new forecast. This forecast shows that by spring the lakes could be very close to the 600,000 acre-foot level that would trigger a declaration that conditions are worse than during the worst drought in the state's history, the 10-year drought of the 1940s and 50s.
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Water flowing into the Highland Lakes
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If this were to occur, the Board would require LCRA’s municipal and industrial customers to cut their water use by 20 percent. This requirement, called pro rata curtailment, occurs only after Highland Lakes water has been cut off to downstream farmers. LCRA has been working with its customers to prepare for pro rata curtailment, should it become necessary. For more information, go to LCRA’s pro rata curtailment page.
The table below shows current and projected conditions at lakes Travis and Buchanan compared to the conditions experienced during historical lows. This forecast incorporates the temporary emergency drought relief approved by the TCEQ on Dec. 7.
| |
2012 |
2012 (projections) |
Historical Low** |
| Feb. 1 |
March 1* |
Aug. 1* |
Lake Travis
(feet above mean sea level (ft msl)) |
626.79
(43.8 feet below monthly average) |
624-626 |
614-620 |
614.18
(8/14/1951) |
| Lake Buchanan (ft msl) |
989.88
(22.1 feet below monthly average) |
987-989 |
974-980 |
983.70
(9/9/1952) |
Combined Storage of lakes Buchanan and Travis
(million acre-feet) / % of capacity |
0.760 /38% |
0.73-0.74
37%-36% |
0.50-0.62
25%-31% |
0.62
31%
(9/9/1952) |
*Based on persistent dry conditions and La Nina in winter and following TCEQ approved temporary emergency changes to Water Management Plan.
**Based on daily 8 a.m. lake levels.
Boat Ramps
As the levels in lakes Travis and Buchanan have dropped, public boat ramps have closed. As of Dec. 13, Lake Buchanan and Lake Travis have no public boat ramps open. Public boat ramps remain open on Inks Lake, Lake LBJ and Lake Marble Falls.
Water Management
LCRA manages lakes Travis and Buchanan, the region's water supply reservoirs, through its state-approved Water Management Plan. LCRA is currently updating the plan. The plan is designed to ensure that cities and industries have the water they need during a drought equal to the worst drought our region has experienced, the 10-year drought of the 1940-50s. However, with conditions on their way to potentially being worse than during the drought of the 1940s and 1950s, the state has given LCRA permission to deviate from the Water Management Plan to take extra drought relief measures if dry conditions persist next year.
LCRA is working with all its customers to manage the water efficiently. Individual customers can go here for information about watering restrictions recommended or required by the region's retail utilities.
In November, all LCRA utilities went to enhanced stage two restrictions, which allows landscape watering no more than once a week. Enhanced stage two occurs when the combined storage of lakes Travis and Buchanan falls to 750,000 acre-feet or less. On Jan. 24, Spicewood Beach Water System went into Stage 4 restrictions because of a drop in the levels of the wells serving the system. Outdoor watering is not permitted under Stage 4. For more information on water restrictions at LCRA utilities, go here.
