Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

The broad dome of high pressure that is expected to bring very hot temperatures to the region this weekend is forecast to weaken and back southwest into Mexico early next week. As the high shifts southwest, it is expected to cause winds in the middle and upper atmosphere to flow from the southern Rockies into Texas for most of next week. This type of pattern in early June often results in a very active weather pattern for much of Texas. In this pattern, waves of low pressure often  move in from the northwest, causing the development of widespread rain showers and thunderstorms. Forecasts call for a weak cold front to sink south into Central Texas the middle of next week and this feature may help to enhance the chance for rain and thunderstorms.

The outlook for next week shows a high chance for rain next Tuesday through Thursday, with the chance for rain decreasing late week into next weekend.

The National Weather Service’s rainfall forecast through 7 pm next Friday calls for widespread totals of 2-4 inches, with some pockets of 3-5 inch totals possible.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm Next Friday:

Stay tuned for additional updates as the forecasts get a better handle of this changing weather pattern.

Have a great weekend!

Bob

We’re looking at a warmer and less active weather pattern this week as our region begins to feel the influence from a heat dome over northwestern Mexico. Much of the area will see a chance for thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Otherwise, the pattern is looking to stay dry through the upcoming weekend and into early next week.

Monday’s weather is expected to be mostly sunny and hot as a ridge of high pressure spreads over Texas out of Mexico. High temperatures are forecast to be in the mid-90s. Lows Tuesday morning are predicted to be mostly in the mid-70s.

A change in the weather pattern is forecast to take place Tuesday into Wednesday when the ridge of high pressure over Texas weakens, allowing a trough of low pressure to lift northeast from New Mexico into the southern Plains states. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop across West and Far West Texas Monday evening in response to the approaching trough. Some of these thunderstorms are predicted to spread as far east as the western and northern Hill Country late Monday night and toward daybreak Tuesday. The threat for any of these storms to be severe will be quite low. This particular area of storms is forecast to diminish around daybreak Tuesday.

A second and somewhat better chance for showers and thunderstorms is forecast to take place across the western and northern Hill Country Tuesday afternoon as another area of thunderstorms blossoms across West Texas in response to the approaching trough over New Mexico. These storms are predicted to spread east across the Hill Country and into Central Texas Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, reaching the coastal plains region Wednesday morning.  The probability for rain Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning will be at 40-50 percent.

Some of the storms Tuesday afternoon and evening may be strong to severe across the Hill Country. The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of North Texas, extending south to Burnet, Mason, and Eldorado under a Slight Risk, or a 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms through 7 am Wednesday. A Marginal Risk, or a 1 out of 5 risk, for severe storms extends as far south as Austin, Kerrville, and Rocksprings.

The primary severe weather threats will be large hail and damaging winds, with a tertiary tornado threat. The rain and thunderstorms are predicted to evolve into clusters of storms that will spread to the south along a weak cold front. The front is forecast to reach the coastal plains region Wednesday morning. The chance for rain and storms should end from northwest to southeast as drier and slightly cooler air spreads in behind the cold front.

Rain amounts through Wednesday are forecast to be highest across the northern Hill Country, and lowest towards the coast. Totals will range from 0.5 to 1 inch across the north, to less than a quarter inch for locations south of Interstate 10.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm Wednesday:

The temperature is forecast to trend a bit lower Wednesday in the wake of the cold front. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the mid-80s across the northern Hill Country, to the low 90s across the coastal plains. The cold front’s visit will be brief as it is predicted to lift back to the north late Wednesday night.

Mostly sunny, dry, and hot weather is forecast Thursday and through the weekend as a ridge of high pressure centered over Mexico spreads east to cover Texas.

• High temperatures Thursday are forecast to be in the low and mid-90s
• High temperatures Friday are predicted to be in the mid and upper 90s
• High temperatures Saturday through Monday are forecast to be near 100 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the mid-90s across the coastal plains

Looking ahead to next week, the forecast solutions call for the ridge of high pressure to shift slightly to the west, which should help cause high temperatures to lower slightly to the mid and upper 90s.  There are indications we could see a chance for rain develop around the middle of next week.

Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center forecasters are monitoring the area offshore of the southeastern U.S. Coast where a non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form near or just offshore of the coast during the next couple of days. If the system remains offshore, the low could gradually develop some subtropical or tropical characteristics later this week while moving northeastward at 10 to 15 mph.

NHC is giving this system a low chance, just a 10 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

Elsewhere, weather conditions are quiet and tropical cyclone development is not expected over the next seven days.

May Rainfall Was Above Normal Across Most of Region

 The month of May concluded with rain totals above normal at most locations. Some of the highest totals for the month occurred around Lake Buchanan, where an LCRA gauge on the northeast side of the lake recorded 10.5 inches. A gauge located in western Fayette County recorded a monthly total of 9.34 inches. The area receiving the least amount of rain was across the western Hill Country between Eldorado and Sonora, extending east to near Harper, where monthly totals only averaged between 1 and 2 inches.

May Rainfall Departure from Normal (Courtesy National Weather Service)

Have a good week!

Bob

A complex of rain showers and thunderstorms originating across Northwest Texas, pushed southeast through the Hill Country, Central Texas, and coastal regions late Thursday night into Friday morning. Fortunately, there were no reports of hail or high winds as the storms moved across the area. But the storms did bring another round of much need rain. According to LCRA’s Hydromet as of noon, totals across the Hill Country and the Austin/Travis County area generally averaged between 0.5 and 1.5 inches. To the east of Austin, totals between Bastrop and Columbus generally averaged between a third and a half inch. To the south of Interstate 10, totals were a bit higher, ranging between 1 and 1.5 inches. LCRA’s gauge located at Glen Flora, in central Wharton County, recorded a total of 3.37 inches.

Thursday night’s storms developed as a wave of low pressure pushed east out of New Mexico sparking the development of showers and thunderstorms along a southward-moving cold front over the Texas South Plains. The storms and the cold front both tracked to the southeast overnight. As of late Friday morning, the storms were exiting the middle Texas coast while the cold front stretched across Central Texas. Forecasts call for the cold front to continue moving southeast Friday afternoon, pushing off the coast Friday evening. The front is expected to bring slightly cooler temperatures Friday through Saturday.

• High temperatures Friday will range from around 80 degrees across the northern Hill Country, to the mid-80s across the coastal plains
• Lows Saturday morning will include the mid-60s across the Hill Country, the upper 60s across Central Texas, and the low 70s coastal plains
• High temperatures Saturday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 80s
• Lows Sunday morning will be in the upper 60s to low 70s

Lingering moisture behind the cold front is expected to create a mostly cloudy sky Friday afternoon and Friday night. The clouds should give way to a mostly sunny sky on Saturday and Sunday.

There will be a slight chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the region Sunday afternoon and through all of next week. Despite a weak ridge of high pressure setting up over the southern Plains for the first half of next week, forecasts also call for a series of weak waves of low pressure to track across Texas out of the southern Rockies. This will be a somewhat different setup from what we’ve experienced this week. It is expected to keeping the heaviest rains across Oklahoma and the northern third of Texas.

On Sunday, forecasts call for a complex of showers and thunderstorms to develop across Oklahoma and track southeast across the eastern half of Texas in the afternoon. Some of the showers may extend as far west as Austin and Interstate 35. The probability for rain will only be at 20 percent.

Next week, the attention will be on West Texas where approaching disturbances are expected to cause the development of scattered thunderstorms along the dry line. The storms are forecast to track to the east across the Hill Country, possibly reaching as the I-35 corridor. As of now, the probability for rain each day will only be 20 percent. Forecast solutions indicate a somewhat better chance for rain will occur Wednesday and Wednesday night when a weak cold front sags to the south. The probability for rain Wednesday will be near 40 percent.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Friday through 7 pm Next Friday:

High temperatures next week are forecast to be mostly in the low and mid-90s. Lows are predicted to be in the mid-70s.

Looking out further into the second week of June, forecasts indicate the weather pattern will remain somewhat unsettled, with more chances for rain expected. High temperatures are forecast to be in the mid and upper 90s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

The Atlantic hurricane season will officially start this Sunday. Weather conditions are currently quiet across the tropical Atlantic, and tropical cyclone development is not expected over the next seven days.

In the eastern tropical Pacific, Tropical Storm Alvin continues to churn about 385 miles south of the southern tip of Baja, California. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph) with higher gusts. However, weakening is forecast Friday night, and Alvin is expected to degenerate to a remnant low on Saturday as it tracks toward Baja.

NOAA/Colorado State  University/RAMMB 05/30/2025 1:30 pm CDT

Have a great weekend!

Bob

Weather conditions are forecast to remain quiet and dry across the region this afternoon. Expect a partly to mostly cloudy sky, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s.

Forecasters will be closely monitoring West and Northwest Texas this afternoon as a small trough of low pressure approaches from New Mexico. High resolution forecasts indicate scattered clusters of thunderstorms will develop across this general area along a southward moving cold front. The thunderstorms are forecast to eventually organize into a large complex of thunderstorms that is expected to track to the southeast overnight.

Forecasts call for the complex of storms to reach the area between San Angelo and Brownwood around midnight, spreading southeast across the Hill Country between about midnight and 3 am. The area of storms is predicted to reach the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor between about 3 am and 5 am. The storms are forecast to weaken and fall apart as they push east of I-35 and are not expected to move over the coastal plains.

There is a potential for some of the storms to be strong to severe due to the ongoing moist and unstable atmosphere. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of West Texas and the northern Hill Country under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms through Thursday night. All of Central Texas, including the Austin metro, has been placed under a Marginal Risk for severe storms. Large to isolated very large hail (2-3+ inches in diameter) and severe gusts will likely be the main severe weather threats. There will also be a low potential for a couple of tornadoes.

Rainfall from the overnight storms is forecast to generally average between 0.5 and 1 inch, for areas to the west of Interstate 35. However, isolated totals of 2-3 inches will be possible.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 am Friday:

There will be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms Friday morning as the area of showers diminishes. Generally dry weather is forecast Friday afternoon through Saturday. A slight chance for rain will return to the forecast for Sunday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Develops in the Eastern Tropical Pacific

The first tropical storm in the eastern Pacific of 2025, Tropical Storm Alvin, has developed several hundred miles south of southwestern Mexico.  Satellite imagery shows thunderstorm activity has increased and become more organized around the center. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph. Alvin should continue to strengthen today, within a favorable environment of warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear for about the next 24 hours. Weakening is expected to begin tomorrow as the storm moves into progressively higher shear and a drier environment with cooler SSTs. There is high confidence that the system will weaken to a remnant low before it nears the Baja California Peninsula this weekend.

Alvin should have no direct impact on Texas weather.

NWS Survey Team’s Assessment of Wednesday’s Storm in Austin

A National Weather Service survey team concluded a long track microburst, associated with a supercell, occurred from central Austin, near the Hyde Park area, southeast to just east of the Austin Bergstrom International Airport. The length of the damage was approximately 10 miles long, with a path width ranging from one mile to a maximum of around 2.5 miles on the east side of Austin. Numerous trees and powerlines were damaged along the path.

Large tree branches were snapped and a few trees uprooted that had shallow root systems. Minor shingle damage was observed on some homes. Maximum sustained winds were estimated to be between 65 and 85 mph. The Austin Bergstrom International Airport recorded a peak wind gust of 77 mph. In addition, sporadic, non-continuous wind damage was observed into northwest Austin along the supercell’s track. This consisted mainly of small to medium sized tree branches. Part of a gas station canopy collapsed onto two vehicles. Winds through this area were estimated at 55-75 mph. Sporadic wind damage was also observed to the south, associated with the rear flank downdraft. This was mainly damage to small to medium tree branches. In addition, the rear flank downdraft also below out windows on the top of the rotunda at Texas Capitol building.

There was no damage observed that was consistent with a tornado. The survey team also observed damage to tree foliage along the track of the hail core.

NOTE: The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to change pending final review of the event and publication in NWS Storm Data.

Bob

Storms moving across the area Monday afternoon and Monday night brought widespread heavy rain, strong winds, and some pockets of very large hail. LCRA’s Hydromet and Doppler radar estimates show the storm produced general totals of 1-2 inches across the eastern Hill Country, Central Texas, and the middle Texas coast. Some pockets of 2-2.5 inches occurred across the Hill Country between Menard and Kingsland, and also across parts of Wharton County. LCRA’s highest gauged 24-hour total was 2.94 inches, at a location in northern Gillespie County.

NWS Estimate of Rain Falling Between 7 am Monday and 7 am Tuesday:

The wave of low pressure partially responsible for Monday night’s storms has exited to the east. Tuesday afternoon’s weather is predicted to be mostly sunny. High temperatures will range from the mid-80s across the Hill Country, to the low 90s near the coast.

Another wave of rain and thunderstorms is forecast to develop late this afternoon and spread across the region late Tuesday evening and Tuesday night. A trough of low pressure currently located over northern Mexico is forecast to track northeast into Texas enhancing the development of thunderstorms. The atmosphere across West and Southwest Texas, along with northeastern Mexico is predicted to become moderately unstable by late afternoon and is expected to cause the development of an area of strong to severe thunderstorms across northeastern Mexico and Far West Texas late this afternoon. This activity is forecast to move to the east and southeast through the mid and late evening hours. This will take the storms across the southern Edwards Plateau and into the Hill Country, and possibly over portions of the Interstate 35 corridor. Unlike Monday’s night’s storms, it’s not clear how far east these next storms will move.

The atmosphere is forecast to be supportive for some of these storms to become strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the western and southern Hill Country under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms through early Wednesday morning. The eastern Hill Country and the area between Austin and Victoria has been placed under a Marginal Risk for severe storms. The primary severe weather threats will be large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts. A secondary threat of an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. In addition, we could also see some pockets of intense rainfall. Rainfall from these storms is forecast to generally average around 1-1.5 inches, with isolated heavier totals.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Tuesday through 7 pm Wednesday:

Tuesday night’s storms are forecast to push off to the east Wednesday morning. Wednesday will feature a partly cloudy sky. Abundant moisture and lingering instability will yield a 40 percent chance for scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Expect high temperatures in the upper 80s to 90 degrees.

Additional scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are forecast Thursday. The probability for rain will be near 50 percent. Thursday’s activity is not expected to be as widespread over as heavy as what is forecast for Tuesday night. Rain amounts are forecast to average around a quarter inch.

Additional periods of showers and thunderstorms are forecast Friday into Friday night as a weak cold front pushes south across the area. Rain amounts are forecast to only average around a quarter inch, or less.

The outlook for the weekend calls for generally dry weather as drier and more stable air spreads in behind Friday’s cold front. Expect high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s.

Looking ahead to next week, forecasts call for generally dry weather Monday, followed by a chance for showers and thunderstorms next Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain amounts are not expected to be very heavy. Dry and sunny weather will follow next Thursday and Friday.  High temperatures next week are predicted to generally be in the mid-90s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions remain quiet across the tropical Atlantic and tropical cyclone development is not expected over the next seven days.

Have a good week!

Bob

Two waves of thunderstorms moved across the Hill Country Thursday night, with each wave producing significant totals of rain across the eastern Hill Country. LCRA’s Hydromet and Doppler radar estimates show a  large area of 2-3 inch totals stretching from north of Brownwood, to near San Saba, Llano, and Blanco. Within this area of heavy rain, there were also several pockets of 4-5 inch totals. LCRA’s highest gauged 24-hour total was 6.52 inches, at a gauge located 6 miles south of San Saba. The storms fell apart before moving past Interstate 35. In addition to the heavy rain, some of Thursday night’s storms also produced large hail and damaging winds.

NWS Estimate of rain falling between 7 am Thursday and 7 am Friday:

Most of Thursday’s night storms were the result of a complex of rain and storms which had developed earlier across the Texas South Plains and then moved to the southeast. Friday’s analysis shows a more stable atmosphere in now place across the region, and a repeat of Thursday night’s storms is not anticipated.

Sunny and very hot weather is forecast Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon. No rain is predicted for Friday through  Saturday.

• High temperatures through Sunday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the low to mid-90s across the coastal plains
• Low temperatures Saturday  and Sunday mornings will include the low and mid-70s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, with upper 70s towards the coast

Forecast solutions continue to point to the development of a wet and unsettled weather pattern across the region beginning late Sunday, continuing through most of next week. The ridge of high pressure currently over Texas is forecast to push off to the east this weekend as a trough of low pressure over the southwestern U.S. slowly spreads to the southern Plains. The trough will help draw moisture north from the Gulf, resulting in a moist and unstable atmosphere across much of the state next week. Weak disturbances moving over Texas and boundaries from previous day’s storms will contribute to keeping the chance for rain going through late week. The most favorable period for rain is expected to occur Monday  afternoon through Wednesday night.

A slight chance (20%) chance) for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Sunday afternoon  as the atmosphere begins to grow unstable. The chance for rain and scattered thunderstorms will to increase to 40 percent Sunday evening and Sunday night as a small wave of low pressure approaches from the west.

Memorial Day is shaping up to be partly to mostly cloudy. Attention will be focused on the northern half of the state where a cold front will be slowly sinking to the south. Forecasts call for showers and thunderstorms to develop along the front, with the storms tracking south over parts of the Hill Country and Central Texas Monday afternoon and Monday evening. The front is forecast to reach Central Texas Tuesday morning, then sink south and pull up stationary across the coastal plains Tuesday afternoon through next Thursday. While there is no strong severe weather signal for Memorial Day and next week, given the time of year, I would not be surprised if some isolated strong to severe storms  occur next week.

The probability for rain Monday afternoon and Monday night will be near 50-60 percent across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions. Across the costal plains, the probability for rain will be near 30 percent Monday afternoon, then increase to 50 percent Monday night.

For Tuesday through Wednesday night, the probability for rain showers and thunderstorms is predicted to remain near 50 percent across the entire region as passing disturbances bring additional periods of rain showers and thunderstorms.

For Thursday and Friday, the probability for rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast to be near 30-40 percent.

The highest totals of rain over the next week are predicted to occur Monday through Wednesday, with lower amounts expected Thursday and Friday. The National Weather Service’s rainfall forecasts for the next seven days calls for widespread totals of 1-2 inches across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, with lower totals across the coastal plains. Keep in mind, these are general totals. Some isolated heavy downpours of 3-4 inches will not be out of the question.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm next Friday:

Next week’s clouds and rain are expected to keep daytime temperatures less hot. Daily high temperatures are predicted to generally be in the upper 80s. Lows are forecast to be in the 60s to low 70s.

The outlook for next weekend calls for just a slight chance for rain along with warmer temperatures. Highs are forecast to be in the low 90s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions remain quiet across the tropical Atlantic and tropical cyclone development is not forecast over the next seven days.

On Thursday, NOAA issued its tropical outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA forecasters are predicting above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year. The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.

The official start to hurricane season in June 1 and the season runs through November 30.

Wishing everyone a safe and enjoyable Memorial Day weekend!

Bob

A quick update on the forecasted weather for Memorial Day and next week. For the past couple of days, computer-forecast solutions have been consistently showing a change in the weather pattern will take place across Texas next week and this new pattern could bring widespread and potentially significant totals of rain to our region.

Weather conditions Thursday through Saturday are forecast to remain generally dry and summer-like, although there will be a slight chance (30 percent chance) for a few scattered thunderstorms across parts of the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor Thursday evening into Thursday night. Most rain amounts, if any, should stay below a quarter inch.

Sunday’s weather is predicted to be mostly sunny and continued hot. However, forecasters will be monitoring developments across West Texas Sunday afternoon where an approaching wave of low pressure is expected to cause the development of scattered thunderstorms along the dry line. The area of storms is forecast to spread east through the Hill Country and Central Texas Sunday night. The probability for rain and storms Sunday night is predicted to be near 50-60 percent. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible.

Memorial Day weather is shaping up to be mostly cloudy and less hot. There will be a 50 to 60 percent chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the entire region throughout the day, continuing into Monday night. A cold front is forecast to slide south across the area while a couple of waves of low pressure track northeast out of Mexico. This setup will be favorable for the development of widespread showers and thunderstorms.

Rain amounts Sunday evening through Monday evening are forecast to average close to an inch across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and around a half inch towards the coast.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue next Tuesday through Wednesday, followed by lower chances for rain next Thursday and Friday.

The National Weather Service’s rainfall forecast through next Wednesday evening calls for totals of 1-2 inches across the Hill Country, with totals of 1-1.5 inches across the rest of the region. Depending on how this situation evolves, higher totals will certainly be possible.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm Next Wednesday:

Interestingly, there are signs this unsettled weather pattern may also extend into the first full week of June.

Temperatures next week will be less hot. Daily high temperatures are forecast to generally be in the upper 80s, with lows in the 60s.

Bob

Although parts of the northern Hill Country saw rain and scattered storms Friday, Saturday and Sunday, most of the region remained dry, warm, and very humid. Unfortunately, this week’s weather is not promising much in the way of rain for our area. There will be a slight chance for scattered thunderstorms across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Monday afternoon and again on Thursday. Next week’s weather is beginning to look a bit more conducive for scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the possibility for some higher totals of rain.

There will be a slight chance (20 percent chance) for a few scattered thunderstorms Monday afternoon and Monday evening across the Hill Country and the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor as a trough of low pressure lifts northeast out of New Mexico. This system is expected to cause an outbreak of severe weather from North Texas into the southern Plains states. Most of this activity is expected to remain well to the north of Central Texas. However, some scattered thunderstorms will be possible for the area along and west of Interstate 35 late Monday afternoon and evening as the dry line shifts east out of West Texas. The dry line is expected to serve as a focus for the development of storms. Should any thunderstorms happen to develop, they will likely become strong to severe, with large hail and damaging winds being the primary hazards.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area of the northern Hill Country between Brownwood, Llano, and Temple under a 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms through Monday night. Much of the rest of the Hill Country along with the I-35 corridor between Georgetown, Austin, and San Antonio has been placed under a 1 out of 5 risk.

Very spotty rain amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch can be expected.

Aside from this slight chance for thunderstorms, Monday’s weather is forecast to be mostly cloudy, warm, and humid.

• Monday’s high temperature is predicted to generally be in the low and mid-90s
• Low temperatures Tuesday morning will range from the mid-60s across the northern Hill Country, to the upper 70s near the coast

A weak Canadian cold front is forecast to push southeast across the region Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. The front is expected to stall just off the middle Texas coast Tuesday night. Unfortunately, atmospheric conditions don’t appear favorable for the development of rain along the cold front. The front will bring drier and just slight cooler air for Tuesday and Wednesday. Mostly sunny conditions are forecast on both days.

• High temperatures Tuesday will range from the upper 80s across the northern Hill Country, to the mid-90s across the coastal plains
• Lows Wednesday morning will range from the low 60s across the Hill Country, to the low 70s near the coast
• High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be in the low and mid-90s
• Lows Thursday morning will range from the upper 60s across the Hill Country, to the mid-70s across the coastal plains

Much of the area will see a 30 percent chance for a few scattered rain showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening. This will take place as a small trough of low pressure tracks northeast across the region out of northern Mexico. Severe storms are not anticipated. Spotty rain amounts up to a quarter inch are forecast.

A sunny to mostly sunny sky and dry weather can be expected for Friday and Saturday.

• High temperatures Thursday through Saturday are forecast to generally be in the mid and upper 90s
• Lows Friday through Sunday morning are predicted to be around 70-72 degrees

The outlook for Sunday and Memorial Day calls for continued partly cloudy and hot weather. However, there will also be a 30-40 percent chance for scattered afternoon and evening rain showers and thunderstorms across the region as a series of weak atmospheric disturbances track northeast over the region out of northern Mexico. While it’s not looking like a rainout by any means, some of the storms on Sunday and Monday could produce rain amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches.

The weather pattern for next Tuesday through Friday looks to remain unsettled as a series of low pressure troughs move over Texas out of Mexico. These passing troughs look to cause a chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms next Wednesday through Friday.

High temperatures next week are forecast to generally be in the low and middle 90s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions remain quiet across the tropical Atlantic. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next seven days.

Have a great week!

Bob

Despite the calendar showing it only being the middle of May, summer’s heat and humidity arrived with a vengeance this week. Unfortunately, these uncomfortable conditions aren’t expected to change all that much over the next couple of weeks. If there’s any good news here, it’s from the long-range forecast solutions telling us the current heatwave and high humidity should moderate down some starting the middle of next week, with slightly lower temperatures continuing through the end of the month. Unfortunately, no widespread or heavy rain is showing up on the weather horizon.

Friday afternoon through Monday, no significant change in the temperature is predicted. The current heat wave looks to continue. Near-record or record high temperatures are forecast through Monday. In addition, high relative humidity levels/muggy conditions can also be expected for the eastern Hill Country, Central Texas, and coastal regions. Breezy southerly winds with speeds of 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph are predicted Friday through Monday.

• Daily high temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the low to mid-90s for areas south of Interstate 10
• Daily low temperatures will range from the low 70s across the Hill Country, to the upper 70s across the coastal plains

Within this hot pattern, there will also be a slight chance for a few scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the Hill Country and the Intestate 35 corridor late Friday through Monday as a series of weak disturbances push the dry line eastward out of West Texas.

Late Friday afternoon into Friday evening, there will be a 20-30 percent chance for the development of scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the northern Hill Country, extending east to just north of Austin as a weak boundary sinks to the south. Should thunderstorms develop, they’ll have the potential to become strong to severe, producing large hail and damaging winds.

Saturday’s forecast calls for a 40 percent chance for the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Hill Country Saturday afternoon as the dry line pushes to the east. There will be a 20 percent chance for some of these storms to reach the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor by Saturday evening. The atmospheric setup will be favorable for some of the storms to become severe, capable for producing large hail and damaging winds.

Sunday’s outlook calls for just a slight chance for scattered thunderstorms across the western half of the Hill Country as the dry line doesn’t get much of a push to the east.

The most favorable period for rain showers and thunderstorms is expected to take place late Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning across the Hill Country and the Austin/Central Texas region. Forecasts call for the dry line to push east into the Hill Country Monday afternoon in advance of a Pacific cold front dropping south out of Northwest Texas. The probability for rain will be near 30-40 percent. The atmospheric setup appears favorable for developing storms to have the potential to become strong to severe. Note, the exact timing and coverage of rain and storms remains uncertain at this point due to the uncertain timing of the cold front. Rain amounts are forecast to remain below a quarter inch.

The cold front is expected to most likely sweep south across the region Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. The front may bring a few showers to parts of the coastal plains region Tuesday afternoon, but rain amounts will be low. The chance for rain should end from west to east Tuesday afternoon as drier and slightly cooler air spreads in behind the cold front.

For next Wednesday through Friday, the weather is expected to be mostly sunny, dry, and not quite as hot. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low to mid-90s, with lows generally in the low and mid-60s.

The next chance for rain is expected to take shape on or just after Memorial Day.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Although the Atlantic hurricane season doesn’t officially start until June 1^st, the National Hurricane Center has begun issuing daily tropical weather outlooks.

Very quiet conditions are currently in place across the tropical Atlantic and tropical cyclone development is not forecast over the next seven days.

NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 05/16/25 12:40 pm CDT

Have a great weekend!

Bob