Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

There will be an increased chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Wednesday afternoon and evening as remnant boundaries spread into the area out of North Texas. In addition, Wednesday’s analysis showed atmospheric moisture levels have gone up, compared to the past couple of days. As temperatures warm into the 90s Wednesday afternoon, scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are predicted to develop. The probability for rain at any given location will be near 40-50 percent. Some of the stronger thunderstorms may produce strong winds, with gusts up to 50 mph. Most of the rain and storms are expected to diminish around sunset as temperatures begin to cool. Rain amounts through Wednesday evening are forecast to generally average between a quarter and a half inch. However, there may be a few locally heavy downpours, with totals to near 2 inches possible.

Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the region Thursday afternoon and evening. However, the rain is not expected to be as widespread as what is predicted for Wednesday. The probability for rain will be near 30 percent, with totals averaging around a quarter inch or less.

The probability for rain will decrease to just 20 percent on Friday.

For the coastal Plains region, there will be a 30 percent for mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday due to an active sea breeze front. Expect spotty rain amounts totaling between 0.25 and 0.5 inches.

Southwestern Gulf Tropical Wave

National Hurricane Center forecasters are closely monitoring a strong tropical wave currently located over the Yucatan Peninsula and southwestern Gulf. The wave is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the general area. The wave is forecast to move west across the Yucatan this afternoon and emerge over the southwestern Gulf/Bay of Campeche on Thursday. Forecasts call for the wave to push inland along the northeastern coast of Mexico, well to the south of Brownsville, late Friday.

There will be a small window Thursday afternoon through Friday where the system will be over water and some slow tropical development could take place. However, National Hurricane Center forecasters are giving this system just a 10 percent chance for tropical development over the next couple of days.

NOAA/Colorado State University 08-13-25 11:50 am CDT

The system is forecast to push an area of tropical moisture inland across northeastern Mexico and South Texas late Friday and through the weekend. The chance for rain Saturday and Sunday is predicted to increase to around 50 percent along the middle Texas coast and be around 30 percent across the Austin/Central Texas and Hill Country regions. Weekend rain amounts are predicted to generally average less than a half inch.

Tropical Storm Erin

For the past couple of days, Tropical Storm Erin has been struggling against dry air and a generally stable environment across the central tropical Atlantic. Erin is racing to the west at a rather fast pace, and this is also likely contributing to the system’s lack of organization.

As of 9 am CDT Wednesday, Erin was centered about 1305 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands.  Erin was moving toward the west near 17 mph. This general motion is expected to continue into Thursday, with a west-northwestward motion beginning Thursday night and continuing into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds were near 45 mph, with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast to begin late Wednesday or Wednesday night, and Erin is expected to become a hurricane by Friday.

As Erin moves westward, conditions will gradually become better for organization and intensification as the system moves over warmer sea surface temperatures. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend as it tracks through a weakness between two high pressure ridges.

While there is significant spread among the various forecast models on the trajectory of Erin, nearly all of the forecast guidance keeps Erin well offshore of the U.S. East Coast.

Bob

This page was updated Wednesday afternoon. For the most up to date weather information, please consult the National Weather Service http://weather.gov/ewx  http://weather.gov/hgx  http://weather.gov/sjt

Very typical, August weather will continue across this region this week. There will be a slight chance to a chance for scattered afternoon and evening rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the entire region Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday as a weak trough of low pressure slowly lifts to the north-northwest and a weak cold front stalls over the Concho Valley. The probability for rain will be near 20-30 percent across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and near 40 percent across the coastal plains. For areas that happen to catch a shower or thunderstorm, rain amounts will average around a quarter inch, with isolated totals to near 1 inch possible.

• High temperatures each day are predicted to be in the mid and upper 90s

Late week and through the upcoming weekend, the chance for scattered showers is forecast to diminish across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions as a ridge of high pressure begins to spread over Texas from the Gulf. Meanwhile, a few scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue across the coastal Plains region along the sea breeze front. Expect a mostly sunny sky and hot temperatures.

• Daily readings are forecast to reach the upper 90s to 100 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and into the mid-90s across the coastal region

The outlook for next week shows little change as Texas will remain under the influence of a large ridge of high pressure centered over northern New Mexico. We’ll be keeping a close eye on the progress of what is currently Tropical Storm Erin. Forecast show little change in the temperature, with highs staying around 98-100 degrees. There are some indications high temperatures may trend down 2-3 degrees beginning late next week as a trough of low pressure develops south into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Strom Erin

The strong tropical wave which pushed off the west coast of Africa and moved across the Cabo Verde Islands Sunday maintained a small, but persistent area of deep convection into Monday morning. This convection appeared to be sufficiently organized and contain winds in excess of 39 knots for the National Hurricane Center to declare the system as a tropical storm and given the name Erin.

As of 10 am CDT,  the center of Tropical Storm Erin was centered in the eastern tropical Atlantic, about 280 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Island. Erin was moving toward the west near 20 mph this motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Earlier satellite wind data indicated that maximum sustained winds were near 45 mph with higher gusts.

Erin is currently over waters whose temperature is only near normal for August. Environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly favorable for development as the system moves westward into warmer waters under weak wind shear conditions over the next few days. Most of the intensity guidance brings Erin to a hurricane in 48-72 hours, with the official NHC forecast to 80mph in 60 hours and 115mph (a major hurricane) at day 5. It appears that Erin will be an increasingly large and powerful hurricane over the southwest Atlantic by this weekend.

NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 08/11/25 1:20 pm CDT

It’s too early to know confidently where Erin will eventually track. Most of the computer-forecast solutions suggest Erin’s path will turn northwest once it gets north of the Lesser Antilles. However, a path further to the west cannot be completely ruled out. Stay tuned for additional updates this week.

National Hurricane Center forecasters are also monitoring a broad area of disorganized showers located over the northeastern Gulf associated with a weak surface trough of low pressure. While development of this system is not anticipated before it moves inland, locally heavy rainfall could produce flash-flooding along portions of the Florida Panhandle over the next day or so. NHC forecasters are giving this system a zero chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

The Perseid Meteor Shower is this Week

The Perseid meteor shower hits its peak the mornings of Aug. 12 and 13, bringing with it a torrent of shooting stars along with the potential for spectacular fireball sightings. The Perseids are one of the most highly anticipated shooting star displays of the year. However, the 2025 shower happens to coincide with the rise of a waning gibbous moon, the glare from which will make it a challenge to spot all but the brightest of meteors.

Still, it’s worth heading out to a dark sky location for a meteor hunt, especially in light of the Perseids’ reputation for spawning impressive fireballs! The best time to spot Perseids will be in the predawn hours of Aug. 13, when up to 100 shooting stars per hour would be visible under ideal conditions, though many will be hidden this year in the glare of the 86%-lit waning gibbous moon. (Space.com)

Bob

This report was posted Monday afternoon, 08/11. For the most up to date weather information, please consult the National Weather Service:

http://weather.gov/ewx

http://weather.gov/hgx

http://weather.gov/sjt

The dog days of summer are upon us and no significant changes in the weather are expected over the next several days. However, a few scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the entire region Monday and Tuesday.

Friday’s weather maps showed a large ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere covering the Central and southwestern U.S. The ridge was causing typical hot, summer-like weather conditions across the majority of Texas. Forecasts call for the ridge to slowly weaken over weekend, then shift off to the west early next week. Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere currently situated between the Yucatan and western Cuba is tracking to the northwest. This trough is forecast to push inland along the Texas coast Sunday, then move northwest west into Central Texas and the Hill Country Monday into Tuesday.

Friday through Sunday

For the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, expect mostly sunny and rain-free weather. High temperatures Friday are forecast to be near 98-100 degrees. Highs Saturday and Sunday are predicted to be in the mid to upper 90s.

For the middle Texas coast, there will be a less than 20 percent chance for spotty rain showers and isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon. The chance for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will increase to 30 percent Saturday, and 40 percent on Sunday. Daily rain amounts will generally average less than a quarter inch.

Monday and Tuesday

For the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, there will be a 20 percent chance for scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms both days as tropical moisture spreads inland. Spotty totals to near a quarter inch will be possible on both days. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s.

For the middle Texas coast, there will be a 40-50 percent chance for scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms both days. Daily rain amounts will average around a quarter inch, with isolated totals to near 1 inch possible. High temperatures are forecast to be in the mid-90s.

Wednesday through Friday

 Mostly sunny and dry weather will resume and remain in place across the region as the trough of low pressure exits to the west, and a new ridge of high pressure begins spreading over Texas from the eastern Gulf. Spotty afternoon sea-breeze-type rain showers are forecast each day across the coastal Plains region.

Daily high temperatures are forecast to be near 98-100 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the mid-90s across the coastal plains.

Next Weekend into the Following Week

Forecasts call for little to no change in the weather pattern as our region remains under the influence of a large dome of high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere. Generally sunny and rain-free weather is forecast. Daily high temperatures are predicted to remain near 98-100 degrees, with middle 90s towards the coast.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions are currently quiet across the Gulf and the Caribbean Sea and are expected to remain quiet through the middle of next week.

In the central tropical Atlantic, a tropical wave is producing minimal shower activity. According to the National Hurricane Center, development of this system appears unlikely during the next day or two due to surrounding dry air. However, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development in a few days.  A tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week, while the system moves northwestward to northward across the central tropical and subtropical Atlantic. The system is not forecast to move west toward the Caribbean Sea. NHC forecasters are giving this system a 50 percent chance for tropic development over the next seven days.

NHC forecasters are also monitoring a weak area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles off the coast of North Carolina that is producing a few disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur over the next day or two while it moves northeastward at 10 to 15 mph.  The low is likely to merge with a front over the weekend, ending its chances for tropical or subtropical development. NHC is giving this system only a 10 percent chance for tropical development over the next couple of day.

NOAA/Colorado State University/ RAMMB 08/08/2025 1:00 pm CDT

The Sturgeon Full Moon

The August full moon, named the Sturgeon Moon, will reach its peak illumination at 2:55 am CDT Saturday morning.  You will be able to see the big full moon rising in the eastern sky on the evening of Friday, August 8, and again on Saturday, August 9.

The Sturgeon Full Moon is the name given to the full moon in August because giant sturgeon, a native freshwater fish of the Great Lakes and Lake Champlain, were abundant and easily caught by Native American tribes and early settlers during this time of year.

Have a great weekend!

Bob

This weather report was prepared Friday 08/08. For the most up to date weather information, visit websites from the National Weather Service.

weather.gov/ewx

weather.gov/hgx

weather.gov/sjt

A complex of rain and thunderstorms moving southeast out of North Texas spread across the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor Monday morning and the coastal area around midday. The storms produced very low totals of rain across the Hill Country. As the storms spread further to the southeast, totals trended a bit heavier across the southern counties of Central Texas and the middle Texas coast. Several spots across Fayette, Colorado, and Lavaca Counties recorded totals close to an inch.

Behind the complex, there will be a slight chance (a 20 percent chance) for a few scattered thunderstorms across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Monday afternoon and evening. Across the coastal region, showers and a few isolated thunderstorms look to continue through Monday evening. The main concerns from any developing afternoon thunderstorms will be strong downburst winds with gusts to near 40 mph, and isolated heavy downpours. No rain is forecast Monday night.

High temperatures Monday will generally be in the low and mid-90s, with low and mid-80s towards the coast.

A large ridge of high pressure currently located over northern Mexico and the Desert Southwest is predicted to expand east across Texas Tuesday, and remain over the state through the end of the week and the upcoming weekend.  The ridge will cause a mostly sunny, hot, and rain-free weather pattern the remainder of the week and this weekend. The coastal region may see a couple of isolated showers each day along the sea breeze front, but rain amounts, if any, should be quite low.

High temperatures Tuesday through Sunday are forecast to generally be in the mid and upper 90s across the Hill Country, the upper 90s to 100 degrees across Central Texas, and the mid-90s across the coastal plains.

The outlook for next week shows few changes as Texas remains on the eastern periphery of the strong ridge of high pressure. Little change in the temperature is expected, with highs staying mostly in the mid and upper 90s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions have become more active across the tropical Atlantic over the past couple of days, but none of this activity poses a threat to Texas or the western Gulf of Mexico.

Off the Southeastern United States, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop in a day or two several hundred miles off the coast of the southeastern United States. Some gradual development of this system will be possible during the middle or latter portion of this week as the system moves slowly westward to northwestward. NHC forecasters are giving this system a 30 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

In the eastern tropical Atlantic, a tropical wave located just off the west coast of Africa is currently producing minimal shower activity. As the wave moves west-northwestward over the next few days, environmental conditions are forecast to become favorable for gradual development. A tropical depression could form by the latter portion of this week as the system continues moving generally west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. Most forecasts call this system to eventually turn north into the central Atlantic, but this is far from certain.

NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 08-04-25 12:30 pm CDT

Morning Sky Show

Set your alarm for dawn. The two brightest planets in the solar system are converging for a close encounter in the morning twilight sky. The planets Venus and Jupiter Venus have become quite close inside the perimeter of the constellation Gemini. This is where the two planets will remain for the rest of August. The alignment is about to get much tighter and considerably more beautiful. Every morning this week, Jupiter and Venus will draw closer together until on Aug. 11-13, they will be less than 1 degree apart. Wake up early and enjoy the show!

Bob

This forecast was prepared Monday afternoon. For the most updated weather forecast data, please consult the National Weather Service.

weather.gov/ewx

weather.gov/hgx

weather.gov/sjt

After several days of hot, rain-free weather, a chance for rain has returned to the forecast for Friday, the weekend, and early next week. The highest probability for rain and thunderstorms looks to occur Saturday, with lower chances following Sunday and Monday. Despite the chance for rain this weekend, hot temperatures look to continue, although not as hot as was observed Thursday.

Friday’s weather maps showed much of Texas was situated within a break between two ridges or high pressure, or heat domes. The first ridge was centered over Far West Texas, northern Mexico, and the Desert Southwest, while the second ridge covered most of the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern U.S. Forecasts call for this break between the two ridges to shift further west into Texas late Friday and through the weekend. This “break zone” will allow tropical moisture to spread inland to Central Texas and the Hill Country and will be the source for the development of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Meanwhile, forecasters are also monitoring the progress of a rare summer cold front that currently stretches east-west across North Texas. As of late Friday morning, the front stretched from San Angelo, to Waco, to Shreveport. The front is forecast to sink a little further to south Friday afternoon, then pull up stationary over the Hill Country and Central Texas on Saturday. The combination of the stalled front, a weaker ridge, and increased tropical moisture will cause a chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the region Friday afternoon through Monday afternoon.

• Friday afternoon into Friday evening, the probability for scattered rain and thunderstorms is forecast to be near 30 percent across the northern half of the Hill Country and Central Texas (including the Austin metro), and the middle Texas coast
• Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, the probability for scattered rain and thunderstorms will be near 40-50 percent across the entire region
• For Sunday and Monday, the probability for scattered rain and thunderstorms looks to diminish across most of the Hill Country, while a 20-30 percent chance for rain and thunderstorms will continue for Central Texas and the middle Texas coast

Developing scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday through Monday are expected to move slow-movers and will have the potential to produce locally heavy downpours at a few locations. In general, daily rain amounts are forecast to average between a quarter and a half inch, with isolated totals of 1-2 inches.

The National Weather Service’s rainfall forecast through Monday evening only shows cumulative totals of 0.25 to 0.5 inches. However, I do think believe totals will be a bit higher than what is shown.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm Monday:

• High temperatures Friday are forecast to be near 98-100 degrees at most locations
• High temperatures Saturday through Monday are predicted to be in the upper 90s

Mostly sunny, hot, and rain-free weather is predicted next Tuesday through Friday and next weekend. Forecasts call for the western ridge of high pressure located over northern Mexico and the Desert Southwest to expand east to cover all of Texas. Fortunately for us,  the center of the ridge is predicted to remain over New Mexico and not directly over Texas. This should keep the hottest temperatures more out to the west.

• High temperatures Tuesday through next Sunday are forecast to be in the upper 90s to 100 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the mid to upper 90s across the coastal region

Looking out into the week of August 11^th, little change is forecast. High temperatures are forecast to remain mostly in the upper 90s to 100 degrees.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions are currently quiet across the tropical Atlantic and are expected to remain that way over the next week.

Friday’s satellite images showed a large area of Saharan dust (shown in the yellow and red colors) stretching from the Caribbean Sea to the west coast of Africa. A tropical wave can be seen just east of the Lesser Antilles, but it is surrounded by dry air and Saharan dust, creating unfavorable conditions for tropical development.

July Climate

The month of July ended with the temperature averaging between 1 and 2 degrees below normal across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast, and between 2 and 4 degrees below normal across the Hill Country.

Of course, unusually heavy and flooding rains were the big story for the month. Totals generally averaged between 6 and 12 inches above normal across most of the Hill Country. According to the Texas State Climatologist’s Office, for the Edwards Plateau climate division, the current July rain estimate for the area averages somewhere between 7.4″ and 7.7 inches. The previous wettest July on record occurred in 1976, with an area average of 7.12 inches. Among all months of the year for the Edwards Plateau, July’s estimate of 7.4 to 7.7 inches should place it somewhere between the 6th and 14^th wettest month ever recorded. The final numbers from NCEI will be released on August 8^th.

It’s interesting to note July rainfall averaged between 1 and 2 inches below normal across the middle and upper Texas coast.

Have a great weekend!

Bob

National Hurricane Center forecasters are currently monitoring a disorganized area of low pressure located just off the coast of the southeastern U.S. In a pattern somewhat similar to what happened a week ago, this system is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms across Florida, southern Georgia, and southern Alabama. This feature is predicted to cross over Florida and enter the eastern Gulf late Wednesday. Thursday into Friday, this system is forecast to move west-southwestward into the north-central Gulf, where atmospheric conditions are predicted to be somewhat favorable for some slow tropical development. The National Hurricane Center currently is giving this system just a 10 percent chance for tropical development over the next 48 hours. While most of the computer forecasts are not all that bullish for tropical cyclone development, additional weather balloon and forecast data coming in this morning will give NHC forecasters a better idea on the possibility for development.

Regardless of tropical development, the system is expected to bring a surge of deep tropical moisture into Southeast Texas and the middle Texas coast Friday through Sunday. Forecasts call for a 50 percent chance for rain and thunderstorms across the coastal Plains region all three days. In addition, some of this moisture is also predicted to spread into Central Texas and the eastern Hill Country regions Saturday and Sunday. Here, the probability for rain will be near 40 percent Saturday and 20 percent on Sunday.

Rainfall from this system and its tropical moisture is forecast to be heaviest across the coastal region, while lower totals are expected further inland. The National Weather Service’s 5-day rainfall forecast through 7 am Monday calls for widespread totals to near a half inch across the coastal plains, and totals near a quarter inch or less across Central Texas and the Hill Country. Keep in mind, any surge of tropical moisture brings with it the risk of heavy rainfall.

I urge everyone to keep an eye on weather developments over the next few days for any changes.

Bob

This page was prepared on Wednesday, 07/23. For the latest weather information and forecasts, please consult the National Weather Service at weather.gov/ewx weather.gov/hgx and weather.gov/sjt

Quiet weather is in place as we start off the new week. For the past couple of days, much of the area has seen considerable middle and high-level clouds thanks to a weak area of low pressure which pushed inland along the upper Texas coast on Friday. As of midday Monday, the remnant low was centered over the northern Hill Country, moving slowly to the west. Satellite images show the low was still causing an area of clouds across the region. However, fewer clouds can be expected Monday afternoon, compared to past couple of days.

• High temperatures Monday are predicted to generally be in the mid-90s.

Mostly sunny, hot, and rain-free weather is for forecast Tuesday, continuing through the end of the week and the weekend as a large ridge of high pressure slowly sets up over the southern Plains states. Despite the ridge setting up to our north, no significant change in high temperatures is expected. Highs are predicted to remain mostly in the mid-90s. But do note a few spots across Central Texas could see highs in the upper 90s Thursday and Friday.

Several computer-forecast solutions indicate a low-pressure system is expected to break off a weak frontal zone located off the southeast US coast over the next couple of days. Like what occurred last week, this system is predicted to track south and then westward into and across the northern Gulf the second half of this week. As of now, the probability for tropical development with this low will be quite low. The low is expected to push another area of clouds and moisture inland along the upper Texas coast beginning Friday, continuing through the weekend. For areas located south of Interstate 10, there will be a 40 percent chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms Friday through Saturday, with rain amounts in the range of 0.5 to 0.75 inches. As of now, it doesn’t appear the chance for rain will extend into Central Texas or the Hill Country.

Cloud cover from this feature is expected to moderate temperatures slightly, keeping high temperatures mostly in the mid-90s through the weekend .

The outlook for next week shows continued sunny and hot weather n as the ridge of high pressure becomes a bit stronger. For Central Texas and the Hill Country, high temperatures the first half of the week are predicted to be in the upper 90s, then warm close to 100 degrees for the second half. Across the coastal plains, high temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s throughout the week.

Tropical Weather Outlook

 For the past couple of days, National Hurricane Center forecasters have been following the progress of a strong tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic. Monday’s analysis, including satellite-derived wind data, indicates the wave and its associated area of low pressure has become less organized. Although the wave is still producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for development the next few days as the wave moves westward at around 15 mph.

NHC forecasters are giving this system just a ten percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 07/21/2025 1:40 pm CDT

Elsewhere, conditions remain quiet.

Have a great week!

Bob

This forecast was prepared Monday afternoon 7/21. For up to date weather forecasts and information 24×7, please consult the National Weather Service http://weather.gov/ewx  weather.gov/hgx and http://weather.gov/sjt

The tropical disturbance which tracked across the northern Gulf earlier this week pushed inland over southern Louisiana on Thursday. As of Friday morning, the ill-defined remnant tropical low had made its way into Southeast Texas.

NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 07/18/2025 1:40 pm CDT

Forecasts call for the low to weaken and diminish late Friday into Saturday as it moves northwest into a drier and more stable atmosphere. Clouds and an area of tropical moisture associated with this feature are forecast to spread across the middle Texas coast and into the eastern half of Central Texas (including the Austin metro) Friday afternoon into Friday night. With a dry atmosphere in place across the area, the chance for rain will at or less than 20 percent. For areas that happen to see a spotty shower, totals should average less than a tenth of an inch. No rain is forecast across the Hill Country.

• The high temperature Friday is predicted to be in the low and mid-90s

Forecasts call for what’s left of the system to dissipate on Saturday. However, some of the leftover moisture could bring a spotty light shower or two to parts of Central Texas. Most areas will stay mostly sunny and dry.

• The high temperature Saturday and Sunday is again predicted to be in the low and mid-90s.

For Sunday and all next week, sunny, dry, and hot weather can be expected region wide. Forecast solutions call for a large ridge of high pressure currently centered over Florida, to spread to the west-northwest. The center of the ridge is predicted to set up over the southern Plains next weekend, then shift to the southern Rockies and the Four Corners region early next week. The presence of the ridge is expected keep weather conditions sunny, rain-free, and hot through the end of the month. Temperatures are predicted to trend hotter next week as soils begin to dry out and the center of the ridge gets closer to Texas.

• High temperatures next week are forecast to be in the mid-90s across the Hill Country and coastal regions, and in the upper 90s across Central Texas
• High temperatures next weekend are forecast to be in the mid and upper 90s at most locations

The outlook for the week of July 28^th calls for continued sunny and hot weather. High temperatures are forecast to be close to 100 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions. No rain is predicted.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions are currently quiet across the tropical Atlantic and tropical cyclone development is not expected over the next seven days.

I hope everyone has a safe and fun weekend! Stay cool!

Bob

Please Note: This outlook was prepared Friday afternoon, 7/18. For up to date weather forecasts 24×7, please visit the National Weather Service at weather.gov/ewx and http://weather.gov/hgx

A  large area of rain and thunderstorms took shape across the Concho Valley and northern Hill Country late Saturday night. The complex of rain remained nearly stationary for several hours and produced totals of 7-9 inches across western Lampasas and southern San Saba Counties, and widespread 3-4 inch totals between Menard to just north of Llano. As of 11 am, the area of moderate to heavy rain had spread south and southeast to cover most of the Hill Country.

High resolution forecasts call for the complex of storms to slowly propagate to the south and southeast late Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon. There are indications the intensity of the rain may come down a bit some through the afternoon, but rain rates of at least 1-2 inches per hour will still be possible. Forecasts call for the rain and storms to reach the Interstate 35 corridor midday to early Sunday afternoon and the area between Bastrop and La Grange mid to late afternoon. The area of rain and storms is forecast to continue into Sunday evening, then diminish. Meanwhile, lighter rains are forecast to persist across the Hill Country through at least mid-afternoon, then diminish. The complex of storms is not predicted to reach the middle Texas coast. However, there will still be a 50 percent chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms through Sunday evening.

With the rain falling on soils that are still very wet from recent rains, this additional rain will quickly runoff and could cause flash flooding. The National Weather Service has posted a Flood Watch for all of the Hill Country and the Intestate 35 corridor, from Temple to San Antonio, (including the Austin metro) through 7 pm Sunday.

In general, additional rain amounts Sunday afternoon through Sunday night across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions are forecast to average between 2 and 4 inches, with isolated totals of 5-7 inches possible. Totals across the coastal plains are forecast to average around a half inch.

The outlook for Monday and Tuesday calls for a slight chance for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the entire region. Rain amounts are forecast to average around a quarter inch or less. Mostly sunny and dry weather is predicted for Wednesday through Friday.

Watching the Northern Gulf

National Hurricane Center forecasters indicate a trough of low pressure is likely to form near the southeastern

U.S. coast during the next day or two and then move westward across Florida into the northeastern Gulf by Tuesday.  Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system during the middle to late part of this week while it moves westward over the northeastern and north-central portions of the Gulf.  There is some probabilities in the various ensemble guidance suggesting slow development, but where any actual surface low may form is uncertain.  This is something that definitely needs to be watched closely over the next several days.

The National Hurricane Center is currently giving this disturbance a 20 percent chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

Bob