The unsettled, wet weather pattern which has been in place since Monday is winding down. While a few isolated showers and thunderstorms will still be possible Friday and Saturday afternoons, the threat for heavy rain and severe storms appears to be over. Mother’s Day weekend weather is actually expected to be fantastic, with a mostly sunny sky.
The large trough of low pressure responsible for the severe storms and heavy rain earlier this week is now located northeast of our area, across the Arklatex. However, forecasts call for the trough to sink to the southeast over the next couple of days, reaching a position over the lower Mississippi Valley on Monday. Mid-level moisture wrapping around the western, or backside of the trough is forecast to spread south across Texas Friday afternoon and again on Saturday.
This moisture, combined with warming temperatures and weak atmospheric lift may spark the development of a few isolated rain showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and again Saturday afternoon. The probability for rain for any given location will only be 20 percent and rain amounts should average less than a tenth of an inch. Atmospheric parameters suggest no strong or severe thunderstorms. The small chance for rain will diminish Sunday as moisture from the upper trough shifts east of our region.
Comfortable temperatures are predicted through the weekend as the upper trough causes northerly breezes with speeds of 10-15 mph across the area. Cool readings into the 50s are forecast Saturday and Sunday nights. Enjoy these mild readings as long-range forecasts suggest these will likely be the last 50 degree temperatures our region will see until next fall.
- High temperatures Friday through Sunday are predicted to be in the upper 70s to low 80s
- Low temperatures Saturday, Sunday, and Monday mornings will include the low and mid-50s across the Hill Country, the mid and upper 50s across Central Texas, and the upper 50s to 60 degrees across the coastal plains
An abrupt shift to a summer-like weather pattern is forecast to take place Monday and continue through all of next week as a near summer-like ridge of high pressure spreads across Texas while the Louisiana trough shifts to the East Coast. Southerly surface winds will return Monday, bringing warmer and more humid air north from the Gulf.
No doubt about it, the big story next for next week will be the upward surge in both daytime and nighttime temperatures. Readings more typical of July are forecast throughout the week as sinking air under the ridge causes surface temperatures to heat up significantly. Expect a sunny sky and dry weather.
- High temperatures Monday are forecast to be near 88-90 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the mid-80s towards the coast
- High temperatures Tuesday will include the mid to upper 90s across the Hill Country, the mid-90s across Central Texas, and near 90 degrees towards the coast
- High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be near 98-100 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and the low to mid-90s across the coastal plains
- High temperatures Thursday and Friday are predicted to be in the upper 90s across the Hill Country, the mid to upper 90s across Central Texas and the low 90s across the coastal plains
- Daily low temperatures throughout next week are forecast to be around 70 degrees
Isolated to scattered rain showers and slightly lower temperatures are forecast next weekend, continuing into the following week as the center of ridge of high pressure slides east of Texas. At the same time, a trough of low pressure is forecast to slowly track to the southern Rockies and southern Plains. High temperatures are predicted to continue in the low to mid-90s.
The May Full Moon
This month’s full moon – called the Flower Moon – will occur at 11:56 am CDT on Monday, May 12th. While the moon won’t technically be full until Monday, the moon will still appear very bright and nearly full Saturday night and Sunday night. Interestingly, Monday’s full moon will be a micromoon, meaning the moon will be at its furthest point in orbit around the Earth.
May’s Flower Moon gets its name from the Algonquin people who recognized the blooming of wildflowers and garden flowers in May. The light of the full moon tends to give the flowers an enchanting appearance.
Have a great Mother’s Day weekend!
Bob
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