Welcome to the first official day of summer!  Unofficially, summer weather started here in Central Texas back in early May and it will likely continue through late September or early October.  We've seen hot temperatures across the region this week, but fortunately, most readings stayed below 100 degrees.  However, the most noticeable weather feature this week has been the unusually high relative humidity levels.  Evaporation from recent rains combined with a very moist flow off the Gulf of Mexico have pushed surface dewpoint temperatures to around 78-82 degrees, making for very high heat index readings and very muggy conditions.

A mostly sunny and very summer-like weather pattern will be in place this afternoon.  High temperatures will generally in the middle 90s.  Expect a southerly breeze at 10-20 mph this afternoon and tonight.  Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop across northeastern Mexico late this afternoon.  Forecasts call for these thunderstorms to track northeast through evening hours, with some of the activity possibly reaching the western and southern Hill Country around midnight.  The activity should diminish shortly after midnight, with rain amounts generally staying below a quarter inch. Lows Saturday morning will be in the upper 70s.

The ridge of high pressure responsible for this week's hot temperatures remains over the area, but will move off to the east over the weekend as a broad trough of low pressure develops across the West.  Over the weekend and into Tuesday a couple of waves of low pressure are predicted to rotate through the western trough, moving from New Mexico to the southern Plains states.  These waves of low pressure are forecast to cause the atmosphere across Central and South Texas to become more unstable, leading to an increasing chance for rain showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Monday.

For Saturday, expect just a slight chance for a few spotty afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms as the atmosphere becomes moist and less stable.  For locations that do happen to see a little rain, totals should average well below a quarter inch.  Saturday's sky will be partly cloudy, with temperatures warming to the low and middle 90s.  Lows Sunday morning will again be in the upper 70s.

Forecasts call for just a slight chance for rain showers Sunday morning, with a 30 percent chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon.  Expect a partly to mostly cloudy sky.  Sunday's temperature looks to reach the low to mid-90s.  Rain amounts Sunday afternoon should average around a quarter inch.

A large complex of rain and thunderstorms is predicted to develop across Northwest Texas Sunday afternoon as a wave of low pressure moves east out of New Mexico.  This complex of rain and storms is forecast to spread southeast across the Hill Country and Central Texas areas Sunday night, reaching the coastal plains region before sunrise Monday morning.  Storms within this complex will have the potential to be strong to severe, with the most likely severe weather threat being damaging winds.  The rain and storms should taper off across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions by sunrise Monday and across the coastal plains region by midday Monday.  Totals are predicted to average between 0.5 and 1 inch, with isolated totals to around 2 inches possible.
 
Forecasts call for the development of scattered rain showers and thunderstorms late Monday afternoon and evening and again Tuesday afternoon and evening as the atmosphere over the area remains moist and unstable.  The probability for rain will be near 30-40 percent.  Additional rain amounts look to average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches.  High temperatures Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be near 90-92 degrees.

A sunny, dry and more stable weather pattern looks to develop Wednesday as the trough of low pressure exits to the northeast and a broad ridge of high pressure develops over the southern US.  This ridge is forecast to persist over our area through late next week, causing very summer-like conditions.  Daily high temperatures will be in the low to mid-90s, with low temperatures in the low and middle 70s.

There are some hints we may see the development of scattered rain showers across the region next weekend.  Long-range solutions call for a non-tropical trough of low pressure to push inland off the Gulf of Mexico.  This system is expected to pull clouds and moisture into the area, causing the development of scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.  As of now, rain amounts are not predicated to be very heavy.  Little change in the temperature is forecast next weekend.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions are currently very quiet across the tropical Atlantic basin.  There are no systems in place which pose a threat for tropical cyclone development for at least the next 5 days.


RAMMB-CIRA 06/21/19  11:10 am CDT

Have a good weekend.

Bob

​

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued its monthly seasonal outlook on Thursday.  This outlook included an update on expected weather conditions for July, and July through September.

CPC's updated July outlook calls for increased odds temperatures will average above normal over the southern two thirds of Texas.  In regards to rainfall, there appears to be no clear trend for above/below or near normal rainfall for most areas of the state.

 
The updated outlook for July/August/September calls for slightly increased odds temperatures will average above normal over the southern half of Texas.  There is no clear trend for above/below or near normal temperatures over the northern half.  The forecasters didn't find a clear trend for precipitation, showing equal chances for above/below or near normal rainfall.

The outlook for fall calls for increased odds temperatures will be above normal.  The outlook also showed increased odds rainfall will average above normal beginning in September, continuing through the end of the year.

Bob

 

​

The word "Hot" will be getting used quite frequently over the next few days a small heat wave develops across Central Texas and the Hill Country regions.  But before we get into the very hot temperatures, however, there will be the potential for one more round of rain showers and thunderstorms.  Early this morning, a complex of rain and thunderstorms developed across Northwest Texas and tracked southeast.  This complex of storms produced totals to near 1 inch between Menard and Mason and also between Brownwood and Mullin.  As of early this afternoon, the complex of storms had dissipated.  In the wake of these showers and thunderstorms, mostly sunny, warm and dry weather is forecast this afternoon.  Today's temperature should generally reach the low 90s.

High resolution-forecasts call for another complex of rain and thunderstorms to develop this evening between Midland and Lubbock.  This activity is forecast to move east-southeast, possibly tracking across the northern Hill Country after midnight.  The probability for rain will be near 40 percent.  For the rest of the region, no rain is forecast this evening or overnight.  Low temperatures Wednesday morning will be in the mid and upper 70s.

A ridge of high pressure currently situated over northeastern Mexico is forecast to build northeast to the southern half of Texas Wednesday and remain over the area through Friday.  This ridge is predicted to pull an area of very hot from Mexico air eastward to South Texas over the 3-day period.  This will result in a short stretch of very hot temperatures.  A mostly sunny sky is expected through the period.
 

• High temperatures Wednesday will be in the upper 90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and in the mid-90s across the coastal plains.

• High temperatures Thursday are forecast to be near 100-102 degrees across the Hill Country, near 98-101 degrees across Central Texas and near 96-98 degrees across the coastal plains.

• High temperatures Friday are forecast to be near 98-100 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and near 96-98 degrees across the coastal plains.

 

Forecast High Temperatures for Thursday, 06/20:

Forecasts call for the ridge of high pressure across South Texas to weaken slightly and shift further to east this weekend.  At the same time, a large trough of low pressure is predicted to set up across the Western and Southwestern US.  Disturbances are forecast to rotate around the trough and move into West Texas, causing the development of scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms.  Some of these storms may affect our region late Saturday and again late Sunday.  In addition, the weakening ridge will allow some moisture to spread inland from the Gulf, resulting in a few spotty showers towards the coast.  The probability for rain and storms across the region will be near 20 percent Saturday and near 30 percent on Sunday.  Otherwise, weather conditions will be partly sunny and not quite as warm.  High temperatures both days are forecast to be in the mid-90s. 

The outlook for next week calls for the development of rain showers and thunderstorms area-wide Monday and Tuesday as a piece of the Southwestern trough breaks off and tracks northeast across western Texas.  The probability for rain is predicted to be around 50-60 percent.  Some of the storms may severe.  Rain amounts over the 2-days are forecast to average around 1 inch, with isolated totals to near 2 inches possible.  High temperatures both days will generally be in the low 90s.

Sunny, dry and hot weather is forecast next Wednesday through Friday as a broad ridge of high pressure sets up over the eastern half of the US.  As of now, the center of the high pressure ridge is not expected to be over Central or South Texas.  High temperatures look to be mostly in the middle to upper 90s.

The Summer Solstice, or the first day of summer, will occur this Friday, June 21st at 10:54 am CDT.

Tropical Weather Update

Weather conditions remain very quiet across the tropical Atlantic.  There are no systems in place which pose a threat for tropical development for at least the next 5 days.

Bob

​

A quiet and  very summer-like weather pattern is currently in place across Central and South Texas.  The drier air which moved into our region earlier this week is now retreating back to the north, allowing warm and more humid air mass to spread north from the Gulf.  These humid conditions are predicted to remain with us through the weekend and all of next week as a moderate wind flow develops off the Gulf of Mexico.  The atmosphere is currently fairly stable across Central and South Texas, thanks to a broad ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere situated over Texas, northern Mexico and the Desert Southwest.  The ridge is forecast to remain over our area through Saturday, then weaken and sink to the south Sunday through the middle of next week.  Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop across West Texas late this afternoon and again Saturday afternoon, but this activity is forecast to remain out west, having little impact on the Hill Country or Central Texas regions.

For this afternoon and Saturday, weather conditions look to be mostly sunny, breezy and more humid.  Expect a south wind at 10-15 mph this afternoon through Saturday night.  Occasional gusts to 25 mph are forecast Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.  High temperatures are predicted to be in the low to mid-90s this afternoon, warming to the middle 90s on Saturday.  Low temperatures Saturday and Sunday mornings will be in the middle 70s.

There will be a slight (20 percent) chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as the atmosphere becomes less stable and a trough of low pressure moves into the Desert Southwest.  The most favorable area for thunderstorms is forecast to be across the western and northern Hill Country, as thunderstorms develop along the dry and march east.  Aside from the slight chance for thunderstorms, Father's Day weather will be partly cloudy and warm, with high temperatures mostly in the middle 90s.

The chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will increase to 30 percent across the entire region Monday afternoon and Monday night as a wave of low pressure tracks east out of the Desert Southwest.  Some of these storms may be strong to marginally severe, with the primary severe weather threats being large hail and damaging winds.  There will be a slight (20 percent) chance more scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday when a second wave of low pressure pushes east out of the Desert Southwest.  High temperatures Monday and Tuesday are forecast to generally be in the low 90s.

Rain amounts Sunday through Tuesday are not forecast to be very heavy, except across the northern Hill Country where some totals may approach an inch.  Elsewhere, most totals are forecast to average less than a quarter inch.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the period 7 am Friday through 7 am Wednesday:

                                                                                                                                                                      
A mostly sunny, dry and warm weather pattern is forecast to return to the region Wednesday when a ridge of high pressure spreads back over the state out of Mexico.  The ridge is predicted to remain over the area late week into next weekend, causing sunny, dry and hot weather.  High temperatures through the period are forecast to be mostly in the middle 90s.  The outlook for the last week of the month calls for little change as our region remains under the high pressure ridge.  High temperatures look to be in the mid to upper 90s.

Based on the outlook for the next couple of weeks, it's clear we will be leaving what's left of our spring weather pattern and moving into our true summer pattern.  And coincidentally, the summer solstice, or the start of astronomical summer, will occur next Friday, June 21st at 10:54 am CDT.

Tropical Weather Update

Weather conditions are currently very quiet across the tropical Atlantic and there are no systems in place which pose a threat for tropical develop for at least the next 5 days.
 

The Full "Honey Moon" will occur late Sunday night into early Monday morning.  By no coincidence the Full Moon will be shining near the planet Jupiter, which is currently shining at its brightest of the entire year.

Have a good weekend.

Bob

​

Temperatures were unusually cool across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Wednesday morning, thanks to a bubble of Canadian air spreading into Texas behind a cold front Sunday night.  The combination of a clear sky, light winds and dry air allowed temperatures to fall to 50s across the Hill Country and into the 60s across Central Texas.  According to LCRA's Hydromet, many Hill Country locations saw minimum temperatures in the mid to upper 50s.  Across Central Texas, readings generally reached the low and middle 60s.  LCRA's lowest gauged temperature was 55 degrees at a couple spots across Mills Country and also at a location east of Menard.

 
In Austin, Camp Mabry and Austin-Bergstrom Airport both recorded minimum temperatures of 66 degrees.  Keep in mind, the normal low temperature for the middle of June is 72 degrees.

Minimum temperatures across the middle Texas coast didn't cool off quite as much due to the Canadian air having a hard time spreading that far south.  Minimum temperatures Wednesday morning were generally in the low 70s.

Temperatures are forecast to fall to the 60s Wednesday night and again Thursday night before warmer and more humid conditions return late week and into the weekend.

Bob

​

Weather conditions are quiet across the Hill Country and Central Texas on this Monday.  This is in sharp contrast to the very stormy conditions which developed Sunday afternoon when a complex of severe thunderstorms tracked southwest out of North Texas ahead of a cold front.  These storms produced very strong winds, intense rain, large hail and even a couple of tornadoes.  The highest totals of rain generally occurred from south of Junction, to north of Fredericksburg to Llano and Burnet.  Within this zone, rain amounts were generally between 2.5 and 3.25 inches.  The storms dissipated before reaching the coastal plains.

Sunday was the hottest day so far this year across the region .  According to LCRA's Hydromet, the temperature reached or exceeded 100 degrees across much of the Hill Country between Junction, Marble Falls and San Saba.  LCRA's highest gauged temperature was 105 degrees, recorded at 3 separate locations.  The temperature topped out in the upper 90s at most locations across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast.  In Austin, Camp Mabry recorded a high temperature of 98 degrees while Austin-Bergstrom Airport recorded a high of 97.
 
Hill Country High Temperatures Sunday:


The intense ridge of high pressure responsible for Sunday's miserably hot temperatures has shifted west from Texas into north and Central Mexico.  This shift has taken place as an unusually strong trough of low pressure is sinking south out of southern Canada.  An unusual June cold front associated with the trough pressed south into Texas Sunday night.  As of midday Monday, the front had cleared the Hill Country and most of Central Texas, and was slowly sinking south into South Texas.  Drier, cooler and breezy conditions were being observed behind the front.  Forecasts call for the front to reach the middle Texas coast sometime this evening.

There will be a slight (20 percent) chance for a few isolated rain showers and thunderstorms across the region this afternoon, Tuesday and again on Wednesday as a series of weak atmospheric disturbances ride the eastern edge of the upper ridge and track southeast from New Mexico into Texas.  Rain amounts from any potential rain showers and storms through Wednesday will average well below a quarter inch.  Expect a mostly cloudy to partly cloudy sky this afternoon through Wednesday.  High temperatures today and Tuesday will include the upper 70s across the Hill Country, the low 80s across Central Texas and be near 90 degrees across the coastal plains.  High temperatures Wednesday will be in the mid and upper 80s, with reading close to 90 degrees expected towards the coast.  Low temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will include the low 60s across the Hill Country, the mid-60s across Central Texas and be around 68-70 degrees towards the coast.

A mostly sunny and dry weather pattern is forecast to develop Thursday and continue through the upcoming weekend.  The "slightly cooler" air mass in place for the first half of the week is forecast to shift to the east, allowing for the return of warmer and more humid air.  High temperatures Thursday will be around 88-90 degrees, warming to the lower 90s Friday and Saturday and to the middle 90s Sunday.  Low temperatures will be mostly in the middle 70s.

Some changes in the pattern are forecast to occur during the first half of next week as a large ridge of high pressure begins to set up over the southwestern US, allowing for a series of low pressure troughs to track southeast into Texas.  Forecasts call for a 30-40 percent chance for chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the region next Monday and Tuesday.  The most favorable period for rain looks to occur sometime Tuesday night into Wednesday when a stronger trough of low pressure moves southeast across the state.  This morning's data suggests rain amounts through the first half of next week will average close to a half inch.  Generally dry weather is forecast next Thursday, followed by another chance for showers next Friday.

Temperatures next week are shaping up to be warm, with daily highs generally in the middle 90s.  Low temperatures will be in the middle 70s.

Tropical Weather Outlook:

Weather conditions are currently quiet across the tropical Atlantic and tropical cyclone development is not expected for at least the next 5 days.

Backyard Astronomy Alert

Today, June 10th,our planet Earth flies directly between the sun and the outer planet Jupiter.  This will place Jupiter opposite the sun as seen from Earth.  As a result, Jupiter will rise in the eastern sky as the sun is setting below the western horizon.  Astronomers call this event an opposition of Jupiter.  At opposition, Jupiter will appear at its brightest and is closest to the Earth for the year. In observational astronomy, bigger and brighter almost always means better; a good reason the next few months are the best time of year to swing your telescope the giant planet's way. Though it rises around sunset, it still takes time to climb high enough for a good view.  For now, that's around 11:30 p.m. local time but come the end of the month, Jupiter will stand 20° high before twilight ends.

In steadily-held 10× binoculars, you can easily see Jupiter's four brightest moons — Io, Europa, Ganymede, and Callisto.  They look like tiny stars "sticking" to either side of the planet. If you don't have a way to mount binoculars on a tripod, use the roof of your car or pivot them against a corner of a building to keep your glass steady.

Bob

​

An active weather pattern continues across Central and South Texas this afternoon as a wave of low pressure and Pacific cold front push east out of Northwest Texas.  Thursday's afternoon's analysis showed a Pacific cold front stretching from Mineral Wells to Llano, to near Del Rio.  Drier and slightly cooler air was indicated west of this boundary, while warm and humid conditions were in place to the east.  Atmospheric soundings showed the atmosphere from the eastern Hill Country, southeast to the coast, being moderately unstable.  As temperatures warm through the afternoon, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and east of the boundary.  Due to the moist and unstable nature of today's atmosphere, any thunderstorms which develop will have the potential to quickly become severe.  The primary severe weather threats will be large hail and damaging winds.  There will be a small chance for a couple of isolated tornadoes.

High-resolution forecasts call for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop across the eastern Hill Country and around the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor this afternoon.  The activity is predicted to exit the eastern Hill Country and the I-35 corridor in the late afternoon.  The storms are forecast to develop into a large complex of rain and thunderstorms over the eastern and southern counties of Central Texas late this afternoon.  The complex of storms is then forecast to spread southeast to the coastal plains region through the evening hours.  The storms should exit the coastal plains by about midnight.  Rain amounts from today's storms are forecast to generally average between a half inch and an inch, with isolated totals of 1-2 inches possible.

As today's trough of low pressure shifts to the east, a large stable ridge of high pressure is forecast to build north across Texas out of Mexico.  This ridge will cause a pattern of mostly sunny, dry and very summer-like weather conditions Friday through Sunday.  High temperatures Friday will be generally be in the low to mid-90s.  Temperatures look to trend hotter Saturday and Sunday as the center of the ridge sets up across Texas.  Some of the hottest temperatures we've seen so far this spring are expected.  High temperatures Saturday and Sunday are predicted to be in the upper 90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and the middle 90s towards the coast.  A few spots across the Interstate 35 corridor may even reach 100-101 degrees.

Forecasted High Temperatures for Sunday, June 9th:

Fortunately, this hot spell is expected to be relatively short-lived.  A trough of low pressure tracking east across the northern Rockies Sunday will help push a Canadian cold front south into Texas Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.  The cold front is forecast to reach Northwest Texas around midday on Sunday, with the front pushing southeast across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Sunday evening.  The front should push off the middle Texas coast well before daybreak Monday.  Forecasts call for an area of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms to develop along and behind the cold front as it moves across our region.  The chance for rain is predicted to end from west to east Monday morning as drier and slightly cooler air spreads in from the northwest.

Mostly clear and slightly cooler weather is forecast Monday afternoon through Tuesday as a weak dome of Canadian high pressure spreads south into Texas.  High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will generally be in the mid and upper 80s.  Low temperatures Monday morning will still be in the low 70s, while low temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will be in the mid-60s across the Hill Country and near 68-70 degrees at most other locations.

A chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms is predicted to develop next Tuesday night into Wednesday morning when a weak wave of low pressure slides southeast out of the southern Rockies. This system is forecast to produce widespread rain totals in the range of 0.25-.50 inches.

Mostly sunny and dry weather looks to return Wednesday afternoon and continue through the end of the week as our region stays under the influence of stable high pressure.  High temperatures Wednesday through Friday are predicted to be near 88-90 degrees.  Low temperatures will be near 68-70 degrees.  Warmer temperatures are expected next weekend.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions are quiet across the tropical Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.  Tropical cyclone development is not expected for at least the next 5 days.

Earliest Sunrises of the Year

Today, June 6th marks the start of a ten-day stretch of the earliest sunrises of the year across Central Texas.  Friday through next Thursday, the sun will continue to rise at the earliest time of the entire year.  In Austin, the earliest sunrise will be 6:28 am.  At Burnet, the earliest sunrise will be 6:29 am.  At Wharton, the earliest sunrise will be 6:24 am. 

Bob

​

Forecasters are closely monitoring a broad area of low pressure currently located over the Bay of Campeche.  This system is producing a widespread area of clouds.  So far, the shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, but atmospheric condition are somewhat favorable for this system to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next 36 hours.  An Air Force Reconnaissance Aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.  NHC forecasters are giving this system a 60 percent chance for development over the next 48 hours.

 
 RAMMB-CIRA 06/03/19 9:30 am CDT

A trough of low pressure pushing east out of the Desert Southwest is forecast to pull a large amount of this system's tropical moisture northward into Texas beginning Tuesday, continuing through Thursday. 

Forecasts call for the development of widespread rain showers and thunderstorms across South Texas Tuesday afternoon, with the activity spreading north to middle Texas coast, Central Texas and the Hill Country regions Tuesday night.  Widespread rain showers and thunderstorms are forecast across the entire region Wednesday and Wednesday night.  The rain is forecast to persist into Thursday, with the rain tapering off Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.  The moisture is forecast to shift east of the region Friday, with dry and warm conditions returning.

The latest rainfall forecasts call for the highest totals of rain over the next 4 days to occur to the east of Interstate 35, where totals of 1-2 inches are predicted.  Totals of 1-1.5 inches are predicted for most of the Hill Country.  With this system being of a tropical nature, isolated heavier totals will certainly be possible.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 am Monday through 7 am Friday:


As mentioned before, dry and warm weather is forecast to return Friday and this coming weekend, with high temperatures in the middle 90s.

Bob

​

The atmosphere remains somewhat unsettled across Central and South Texas this afternoon.  A trough of low pressure tracking across North Texas kicked off a couple of thunderstorm clusters across the northern Hill Country late this morning.   These storms produced rain totals of 1-2 inches in the area between Brownwood, Coleman and Abilene.  Outflow from these storm has helped kick off another area of rain and thunderstorms this afternoon from around La Grange to near Lufkin.  This area of thunderstorms is forecast to track southeast over the course of the afternoon, possibly affecting parts of Colorado and Wharton counties late this afternoon and evening.  While widespread severe weather is not expected, some of these storms may contain large hail, damaging winds and heavy rainfall.  Here, the probability for rain and storms will be near 50 percent.  Across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, there will be just a slight chance for a few scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening.  Dry weather is expected overnight.  Low temperatures Saturday morning will range from the upper 60s across the Hill Country to the mid-70s near the coast.
                                               
A drier and more stable weather pattern is predicted across the region Saturday as today's trough of low pressure exits to the northeast.  However, there will still be enough lingering moisture and instability in place to generate a few scattered afternoon thunderstorms across the region.  The probability for rain will only be near 20 percent.  Aside from this slight chance for rain, Saturday's weather is expected to be mostly sunny and warm, with the temperature warming close to 90 degrees.  Expect a light southeasterly wind at 5-10 mph.

Mostly sunny, dry and warm weather is forecast for Sunday and Monday as a weak ridge of high pressure spreads north over Texas.  High temperatures both days are expected to be in the low to mid-90s.  Wind speeds will continue in the range of 5-10 mph.

Showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast next Tuesday through Thursday as tropical moisture spreads north from the Gulf.  Friday's forecast data calls for the ridge of high pressure over Texas to weaken beginning Tuesday, allowing an area of tropical moisture to surge north from the Gulf of Mexico.  At the same time, a trough of low pressure is predicted to track east out of northern Mexico and the Desert Southwest.  Forecasts call for a 40 percent chance for rain showers and thunderstorms Tuesday, increasing to a 50 percent probability Wednesday and a 60 percent probability Thursday.  Although widespread severe weather is not expected, some isolated severe thunderstorms will certainly be possible.  High temperatures each day look to be in the upper 80s.

Forecast solutions are showing the potential for general totals of 1-2 inches across the region over this 3-day period.  The National Weather Service's rainfall outlook calls for the highest totals to occur across the coastal plains region, with lighter totals across the Hill Country:

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Friday through 7 pm Next Friday:

 
Mostly sunny, dry and warmer weather is forecast beginning next Friday as the trough exits to the northeast.  A ridge of high pressure spreading over Texas will cause a return of warm and summer-like conditions next weekend, continuing into the early part of the following week.  High temperatures will generally be in the low 90s.

Tropical Weather Update

The 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season will officially begin Saturday, June 1st and continue through November 30th.

National Hurricane Center forecasters are currently monitoring a broad area of low pressure centered over the Yucatan Peninsula, producing widespread clouds and showers. This system is forecast to move westward over the southern Bay of Campeche during the weekend.  Some gradual development of this system is possible through early next week as long as the system remains over water.  Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern Mexico during the next few days.  This system is forecast to stay south and not have any direct impact on Texas weather.



Have a good weekend.

Bob