​

Wednesday morning's forecast data for this afternoon and tonight remains fairly similar to the last couple of days.  A threat for strong to severe thunderstorms will develop this evening across the Hill Country, with the threat for severe storms expanding east across the Austin and Central Texas regions overnight.  One notable change from yesterday's forecast data is the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon across the Austin and Central Texas area has decreased.  A fairly stout sable layer in the middle atmosphere is forecast to hold throughout the  afternoon, limiting the development of strong to severe thunderstorms.  Scattered light rain showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the region this afternoon through early evening.

A strong upper level system pushing into West Texas is forecast to cause the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms early this evening along the dry line. This will generally be over the western and northern Hill Country, in the time frame of about 7 pm to 10 pm.  Forecasts call for these developing thunderstorms to quickly become strong to severe.  The primary severe weather threats will be very large hail (gold ball-size) and damaging winds.  However, an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

The area of storms is predicted to merge and transition into a large squall line of rain showers and thunderstorms late this evening as it pushes through the eastern Hill Country and approaches the Interstate 35 corridor.  The squall line is forecast to move across the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor region roughly between 10 pm and 2 am.  The line of rain and storms is forecast spread over the area between Bastrop and Columbus roughly between 2 am and 5 am.  The rain and storms are forecast to spread across the coastal counties roughly between 5 am and 9 am Thursday morning.  Some of the thunderstorms within this line may be severe, with the primary severe weather threats being very large hail and damaging winds.

The rain and storms should clear the Hill Country and Central Texas regions before daybreak Thursday.  The activity should exit the coastal counties by mid-morning Thursday.

The Storm Prediction Center continues to show an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms this evening and overnight for the eastern Hill Country and the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor.  The western Hill Country and the area between Smithville and southern Colorado County have been placed under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms.  Wharton and Matagorda Counties have been placed under a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms.

 

Rainfall from tonight's line of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to generally total between 0.5 and 1 inch across the eastern Hill Country and  Austin/Interstate 35 corridor. For areas from just east of Austin to near Bay City, totals of 1-2 inches are forecast.  Keep in mind isolated heavier totals to near 3 inches will be possible.  Totals across the western Hill Country look to be between 0.25 and 0.5  inches.

Please increase your weather awareness today into tonight.  Have multiple sources of weather information, monitor local media and listen to NOAA All-Hazards Radio for the latest watches and possible warnings.

Bob

​

Today's forecast data continues to call for a classic springtime severe weather setup taking shape Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night when a vigorous trough of low pressure pushes into Texas out of northern Mexico.  In advance of the trough, the atmosphere over the Hill Country and Central Texas is expected to become quite moist and moderately unstable.   As a mid-level stable layer weakens Wednesday afternoon, forecasters will be closely monitoring two areas for thunderstorm development.

The first area of concern will be for areas along and east of Interstate 35 Wednesday afternoon and evening, where isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible.  Here, developing thunderstorms will have the potential to grow quickly, becoming strong to severe.  Severe weather threats will primarily be very large hail and damaging winds.  However, a couple of isolated tornadoes will also be possible.  The probability for rain and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon will be near 50 percent.

The second area of concern will be across the western and northern Hill Country, in the vicinity of the West Texas dry line.  Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and just east of the boundary during the mid-to late afternoon hours, in a zone of increasing atmospheric lift and instability.  Forecast atmospheric parameters suggest developing thunderstorms will have the potential to quickly become severe.  The primary severe weather threats will be very large hail (to around 3 inches in diameter) and damaging straight-line winds (in excess of 60 mph).

The area of storms is forecast to merge into a nearly solid squall line of rain and thunderstorms across the central and eastern Hill Country Wednesday evening.  This line of storms is predicted to spread across the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor region roughly between 11 pm and 1 am and the area between Bastrop and La Grange between 1 am and 4 am.  The rain and storms are forecast to spread into the middle Texas coastal counties after 4 am.  The main severe weather threats from the line of storms will be very large hail and damaging winds.

The line of rain and storms is forecast to exit the coastal plains region by mid-morning Thursday.  Dry, sunny and slightly cooler weather is predicted across the entire region Thursday afternoon.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed most of our region under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday, continuing through 7 am Thursday.  In addition, the eastern Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor, including the Austin area, have been placed under an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms for the same period.  (An enhanced risk means numerous severe thunderstorms will be possible). 

 

Rainfall from Wednesday's rain and thunderstorms is forecast to generally average between 0.5 and 1 inch.  However, isolated totals of 1-3 inches will be possible for areas where storms happen to move over the same area repeatedly.

While minor flooding will be possible at a few locations, this is shaping up to primarily be a potential severe weather event.  I urge everyone to keep tabs on local media and NOAA All-Hazards radio Wednesday for possible watches and warnings.  Be sure to know of an area to take cover should severe weather threaten.

Bob

​

The focus of this week's weather will be on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night, when a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms will develop across the Hill Country and the Austin/Central Texas region.  Large hail, damaging winds and even a couple of isolated tornadoes will be possible.

In advance of Wednesday's active weather, the week will begin with a pair of warm and breezy days. The large area of Canadian high pressure which spread into Texas behind Saturday's strong storm system has moved off to the east, allowing for the return of southerly breezes.  A strengthening pressure gradient will cause wind speeds to increase this afternoon to a range of 10-15 mph, with occasional gusts to 20 mph.  Similar wind speeds are expected Monday night and Tuesday.  This afternoon's sky will be sunny, with the temperature warming close to around 80 degrees.  Gulf moisture will be slow to return this afternoon, but moisture levels are forecast to increase tonight through Tuesday.  The sky will become cloudy after midnight Monday night and will likely stay mostly cloudy through Tuesday.  Lows Tuesday morning will be in the upper 50s.  High temperatures Tuesday will again be near 80 degrees.  Low temperatures Wednesday morning will be in the upper 60s.

A large trough of low pressure currently pushing inland across the Pacific Northwest is forecast to dive southeast to the Four Corners region Tuesday, then track east across northwestern Texas and southern Oklahoma Wednesday and Wednesday night.  In advance of the approaching trough, the atmosphere is forecast to become quite moist Tuesday night into Wednesday.  This will lead to the development scattered light rain showers and patchy drizzle across the region Tuesday night through Wednesday morning.

Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are predicted to develop and increase in coverage across the entire region Wednesday afternoon as atmospheric lift increases ahead the approaching trough.  The probability for rain will be near 50 percent.  Forecast solutions call for an area of strong to severe thunderstorms to develop across the western and northern Hill Country Wednesday afternoon as the dry line pushes east out of West Texas.  The area of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to shift east across the rest of the Hill Country Wednesday evening.  Large hail, damaging downburst winds and even a couple of isolated tornadoes will be possible.

A Pacific cold front pushing in from West Texas is predicted to meet up and overtake the dry line late Tuesday evening.  Forecast data calls for a more solid line of rain and thunderstorms to develop along the cold front.  Some of these storms will also have the potential to be strong to severe.  The primary threats are expected to be large hail and damaging downburst winds.  The activity is predicted to spread east across the Austin/Central Texas area in the hours around midnight Wednesday night, reaching the coastal plains region late Wednesday.

The atmosphere across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions is forecast to become quite moist and unstable Wednesday evening and Wednesday night, creating a good potential for severe thunderstorms.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Hill Country and all of Central Texas, extending south to Colorado County, under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.  The Interstate 35 corridor, from just north of Austin to the DFW Metroplex, has been placed under an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms during this same period.  Counties included in the enhanced risk include Llano, Burnet, Williamson, Lampasas, eastern San Saba and northwestern Travis. 



The rain and storms should exit the region from west to east late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.  Rain amounts through the period are forecast to generally average between 0.5 and 1 inch.  However, some isolated totals of 1-2 inches will be possible from Austin, southeast to the coast.

Sunny and slightly cooler weather conditions are predicted to develop Thursday in the wake of Wednesday night's storm system.  This sunny and dry pattern is forecast to continue Friday and through the Easter weekend.  High temperatures will be in the low to mid-70s Thursday, warming to the upper 70s Friday.  High temperatures Saturday look to be in the low 80s, warming to the middle 80s on Sunday.  Low temperatures will be in the upper 40s to low 50s Friday and Saturday mornings and in the low 60s Sunday morning.

Next week's weather is shaping up to be fairly unsettled and wet across the region as a series of cold fronts and storm systems move across the state.  Forecasts call for a chance for rain and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday with another period for rain and storms developing late Wednesday through Friday.  High temperatures throughout the week are predicted to be around 80 degrees with low temperatures in the low 60s.

Have a good week.

Bob

 

​

Weather conditions are currently dry and quiet across the region on this Friday, but showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop as early as this evening across parts of the area, with the rain and storms increasing in areal coverage late tonight through Saturday. 

Friday's weather maps showed Thursday's cold front has pulled up stationary just off the middle and upper Texas coast.  The temperature has trended slightly cooler behind the front. Under a mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky, today's temperature should warm to around 78-80 degrees.  Expect a light southeast wind at 5-10 mph.

A large trough of low pressure was located Friday morning over northwestern Mexico and southern Arizona, moving to the east-northeast.  This system is predicted to reach Far West Texas Saturday morning and North Texas by Saturday evening. As the trough approaches Texas overnight and Saturday, considerable moisture is forecast to spread inland, resulting in the development of scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.

With the approaching trough, two areas of potential severe thunderstorms are forecast.  The first area will be across much of West Texas along with the western and northern Hill Country tonight and toward daybreak Saturday.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area generally west of a Comanche to Mason to Kerrville line under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms tonight through 7 am Saturday.  A broken line of thunderstorms is forecast to develop across the Permian Basin late this evening, with the line of rain and storms predicted to spread east overnight and into Saturday morning.  Atmospheric conditions will be favorable for some of these storms to become severe.  The primary severe weather threats will be large hail and damaging downburst winds.  Rain and storms are forecast to exit the Hill Country by late Saturday morning.

This area of rain and storms is predicted to push east across the central/eastern Hill Country and the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor Saturday morning. Current forecasts indicate the threat for widespread severe thunderstorms will decrease across the eastern Hill Country and Central Texas regions due to the presence of a more stable atmosphere.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed this area under a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms on Saturday.  A few isolated, severe thunderstorms will be possible.  The primary severe weather threat will be large hail.  The rain and storms are forecast to exit Central Texas early to mid-Saturday afternoon.

The other area of potential severe thunderstorms is expected to take place Saturday across Southeast Texas, including the coastal counties of the middle Texas coast.  The stalled cold front along the coast is forecast to lift back to the north as a warm front Saturday morning, allowing moist and very unstable air to spread inland. Isolated, severe thunderstorms will be possible across the area Saturday morning.  A more organized area of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon when the broken line of rain and storms pushes southeast out of Central Texas.  Severe weather threats will include large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.  The rain and storm threat is forecast to end here late Saturday afternoon as rain and storms move southeast over the Gulf of Mexico.

Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Outlooks for Friday and Saturday.

Rain amounts from the rain showers Friday night through Saturday are not forecast to be all that heavy.  The National Weather Service is calling for most totals to be in the range of 0.25 to 0.5 inches.  Some isolated heavier totals will be possible.

NWS rainfall forecast for the period 7 pm Friday through 7 pm Sunday:


Clouds are forecast to clear from west to east Saturday afternoon behind the area of rain and storms.  Breezy westerly winds of 10-20 mph look to develop Saturday afternoon.  Northwesterly winds with speeds of 15-20 mph are forecast Saturday night.  High temperatures Saturday will be near 78-82 degrees.  It will turn noticeably cooler Saturday night.  Lows Sunday morning will include the upper 30s to low 40s across the Hill Country, the low and mid-40s across Central Texas and the upper 40s across the coastal plains.

Sunny weather is expected Sunday and Monday when a weak ridge of high pressure builds over the area.  High temperatures Sunday will be in the low 70s, warming close to 80 degrees Monday.  Lows Monday morning will be in the upper 40s. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the low 60s.

The next change in the weather is forecast to take place Tuesday into Wednesday when a trough of low pressure dips southeast out of the southern Rockies.  Increasing moisture ahead of the trough will cause the sky to become mostly cloudy Tuesday.  A few rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are predicted Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon.  Rain amounts are forecast to average less than a quarter inch.

Sunny and dry weather conditions are predicted for next Thursday, continuing through Easter Sunday as a weak ridge of high pressure spreads over Texas out of the southwest.  High temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 70s late week, warming close to 80-82 degrees next weekend.  Low temperatures will generally be in the 50s.  The next chance for rain is forecast to occur sometime just after Easter.

Have a good weekend.

Bob

​

Wednesday turned out to be the warmest day so far this year for most locations across the Hill Country, Central Texas and the coastal plains.  The combination of breezy southerly winds, abundant sunshine and relatively dry air allowed temperatures to warm to summer-like levels.

According to LCRA's Hydromet, Wednesday's temperature reached the low, mid and upper 90s across the Hill Country, around 90-93 degrees across Central Texas and the mid to upper 80s across the coastal plains.

Maximum Temperatures Wednesday (from LCRA's Hydromet)



In Austin, the temperature topped out at 93 degrees at Camp Mabry.  This was 1 degree shy of the record for the date.  At Austin-Bergstrom Airport, the temperature also reached 93 degrees, tying the record high temperature set in 1963.

Fortunately, Wednesday's summer-like heat will be short-lived as slightly cooler air spreads into the area behind a Pacific cold front early Thursday.  High temperatures Thursday and Friday look to be near 80-82 degrees.  Readings are forecast to fall close to 50 degrees Thursday night.

Forecasters continue to monitor a strong storm system located along the West Coast that is predicted to move across Texas Saturday.  This system is forecast to cause the development of showers and thunderstorms Friday night, with the activity moving across our region on Saturday.  The rain is predicted to end across the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor by early afternoon and across the coastal plains by late afternoon.  Sunny and dry weather will be in place Sunday.

National Weather Service rainfall forecasts call for rain totals Saturday to generally average near or less than a half inch.

NWS rainfall forecast for the period 7 pm Wednesday through 7 pm Monday:


Bob

​

The storm system responsible for the widespread rain and thunderstorms across the region over the weekend has moved into Louisiana, taking the unsettled weather with it.  Looking back at the weekend rains, totals were highest along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor and were lowest across the majority of the Hill Country.  For areas west of a San Saba to Kerrville line, most totals averaged less than a quarter inch.

NWS estimate of rain falling between 9 am Friday and 9 am Monday:


According to gauge reports and Doppler radar estimates, the highest totals occurred over northeastern Travis and eastern Williamson Counties, where some totals ranged between 6 and 8 inches.  LCRA's highest 3-day gauged total was 6.55 inches at a gauge located 3 miles south-southeast of Pflugerville, in northeastern Travis County.   Meanwhile, a CoCoRaHS gauge located 1.1 miles west-northwest of Taylor recorded a 3-day total of 8.18 inches.

Austin-Camp Mabry recorded a 3-day total of 4.7 inches while Austin-Bergstrom's 3-day total measured 1.93 inches.  Keep in mind that normal rainfall for the entire month of April is just over 2 inches.

As this weekend's low pressure system departs to the east, a stable ridge of high pressure is spreading across Texas out of the Desert Southwest.  This ridge of high pressure will cause a sunny, dry and stable weather pattern across the region today through Friday.  Although some cooler air filtered into the area over the weekend, much warmer readings are expected today through Wednesday.  Forecasts indicate a Pacific cold front will move across the area Wednesday night, bringing slightly cooler air for Thursday and Friday.

High temperatures this afternoon will generally warm to the lower 80s, reaching the middle 80s on Tuesday.  Wednesday is shaping up to be the warmest day of the week, with readings reaching near 90-92 degrees across the Hill Country, near 90 degrees across Central Texas and the mid-80s across the coastal plains.  High temperatures Thursday will be near 80-82 degrees but will lower to the mid-70s on Friday. 

Low temperatures Tuesday morning will be in the mid and upper 50s, while low temperatures Wednesday morning will be in the low 60s.  Lows Thursday morning will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.  Lows Friday morning will range from the upper 40s across the Hill Country to the mid-50s near the coast. 

Light winds are expected today and Tuesday.  However, southerly winds look to increase to 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Northerly winds at 10-15 mph are forecast Thursday.

Widespread rain showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the region Saturday when a Pacific trough of low pressure pushes into Texas out of the Desert Southwest.  Forecast solutions show a somewhat similar setup to last weekend, with abundant moisture and instability in place  Parts of the area, especially locations southeast of Austin, may see the development of some strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.  The chance for rain is expected to linger into Saturday night, with the rain clearing from west to east early Sunday morning.   High temperatures next weekend will be in the upper 60s to low 70s, with lows in the 50s.

As of now, forecast data indicates next weekend's rain amounts will generally be in the range of 0.5 to 1 inch for areas along and east of Interstate 35.  Lower totals are forecast across the Hill Country.

The outlook for next week calls for dry and warm weather Monday through Wednesday.  High temperatures look to be around 78-80 degrees.  A chance for rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast next Thursday and Friday when a series of low pressure troughs move into Texas out of Mexico.  High temperatures late week should continue around 80 degrees.

Bob

​

Weather conditions are quiet across the region on this Friday.  Satellite images show a large area of low clouds covering the Hill Country along with most of South and Southeast Texas.  Forecasts call for these clouds to be rather persistent and this will lead to a mostly cloudy to overcast sky through late afternoon.  With widespread clouds in place, today's temperature should warm to around 80-82 degrees.

Forecasters are closely monitoring a vigorous trough of low pressure located over Baja, California and a second trough located off the central coast of California.  Both systems are moving to the east and look to influence our region's weather over the weekend.  The first trough is predicted to push into West Texas tonight and move across North Central Texas Saturday morning.  Out ahead of the approaching trough, the atmosphere is forecast to become quite moist and increasingly unstable.  There will be a slight chance for a few isolated rain showers and thunderstorms across the region this evening, with the chance for rain and storms increasing to 40 percent after midnight.

High-resolution forecasts call for the development of a large, organized area of rain showers and thunderstorms across West Texas and the Edwards Plateau late tonight.  This activity is forecast to spread east into the Hill Country before sunrise Saturday, reaching the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor by about mid-morning.  The area of rain and storms should continue marching east across Central Texas and the coastal plains region Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon.  Atmospheric conditions appear favorable for some of these thunderstorms to become strong and severe.  Severe weather threats will include large hail, damaging winds large hail and even a couple of isolated tornadoes.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire region under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms.  (A slight risk means short-lived, isolated intense storms will be possible)  Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to continue behind the initial wave of rain and thunderstorms Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon.  High temperatures Saturday will generally be in the mid and upper 70s.

Occasional rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to continue across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Saturday night.  Meanwhile, more organized and heavier rains are forecast to continue across the coastal plains region.  The probability for rain Saturday night will be around 50 percent.

Rain amounts Saturday are predicted to average around 1 inch, with isolated totals to near 2 inches possible.

A second area of rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast to develop across the eastern Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor Sunday morning as the second trough of low pressure pushes into West Texas.  Some of these storms could be strong to severe.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area roughly along and east of Interstate 35 under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday.  The primary severe threats will be large hail and damaging downburst winds.  This rain and thunderstorm activity will push east across Central Texas and the coastal plains region Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon.  Rain showers are forecast to diminish from west to east Sunday afternoon as the activity spreads southeast to the coast.  In fact, some breaks in the clouds will even be possible Sunday afternoon.  Rain amounts Sunday are forecast to average less than a half inch across the Hill Country but do look to average between 1 and 1.5 inches for areas along and east of Interstate 35.  Sunday's temperature will be a little warmer, with highs in the low 80s.

There will be a slight chance for a few additional light rain showers Sunday night when a Pacific cold front pushes east across the state.  Rain amounts should average near or less than a tenth of an inch.

Weekend rain totals are forecast to be highest for areas east of Interstate 35 and lowest across the Hill Country.  The National Weather Service's rainfall forecast for the period between Friday morning and Monday morning calls for general totals of 0.5 to 1 inch across the Hill Country, with general totals of 1-2 inches for locations east of Interstate 35.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the period 7 pm Friday through 7 pm Monday:

A sunny, dry and warm weather pattern is forecast to develop Monday through Wednesday as the weekend trough of low pressure pushes off to the northeast.  Breezy south winds at 10-20 mph are forecast Tuesday and Wednesday in response to an area of low pressure moving across the Plains states.  High temperatures Monday will be in the low 80s, warming to the mid to upper 80s Tuesday and the upper 80s Wednesday.

Sunny and slightly cooler conditions are forecast next Thursday, continuing into next weekend as a Canadian cold front moves through the area.  High temperatures will fall to the 70s with low temperatures in the 50s.

The next chance for rain is forecast to occur next weekend, April 13th and 14th when another trough of low pressure moves into Texas out of Mexico and the eastern Pacific. 

Have a good weekend.

Bob

​

Wow!  It seems summer arrived early across Central Texas Thursday as the temperature warmed to the upper 80s and lower 90s!  Keep in mind, the average high temperature for April 4th is 77 degrees.  The reason for the unusual heat?  The Dry Line pushed east out of West Texas Thursday afternoon, in the wake of a trough of low pressure which moved across the area Wednesday night.

Dry, westerly winds spread east out of Mexico behind the Dry Line.  This dry air sank in elevation as it crossed the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor, causing the temperature to spike to summer-like levels.  The Dry Line stalled just east of Interstate 35, keeping temperatures mostly in the middle 80s across the eastern half of Central Texas and the coastal plains.

Maximum Temperatures Thursday, as recorded by LCRA's Hydromet:



In Austin, the temperature at Camp Mabry reached 92 degrees.  This reading broke the previous record of 89 degrees set in 2017 and 1958.  At Austin-Bergstrom, the temperature also reached 91 degrees.  This reading was just shy of the 92 degree record set in 1958.

Thursday's summer-like pattern is not expected to repeat Friday as some slightly cooler air spreads south behind a weak cold front.  High temperatures should generally be in the low and middle 80s.  Details on the chance for rain and severe storms this weekend in Friday's report.

Bob

​

Forecast solutions continue to show a wet and stormy pattern developing across Central and South Texas Friday night, continuing through Saturday.  Rains should slowly taper off Saturday night into Sunday morning.  However, I do want to point out that some forecast solutions indicate the rainy pattern could extend through Sunday and into Monday morning.

Rain amounts this weekend are predicted to generally average between 1 and 1.5 inches across the Hill Country and 1-2 inches for areas along and east of Interstate 35.  If the wet pattern does indeed extend through Sunday, rain amounts could go a little higher.  Stay tuned for more details.

NWS rainfall forecast for the period 7 pm Wednesday through 7 pm Monday:


Bob