Forecast for Central Texas

Friday	Saturday	Sunday	Monday	Tuesday

Fri	Sat	Sun	Mon	Tue

65 °F / 42 °F	65 °F / 52 °F	67 °F / 42 °F	68 °F / 48 °F	65 °F / 43 °F
65 ° / 42 °	65 ° / 52 °	67 ° / 42 °	68 ° / 48 °	65 ° / 43 °
		20%		30%
Sunny	Partly Cloudy	20%Chance AM Rain, then Sunny	Sunny	30%Chance Rain Showers

Updated January 24, 2020

Reports from LCRA’s Hydromet
Rainfall summary
Temperature summary
Humidity summary

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Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

Three Chances for Rain Over the Next Week. Arctic Air Remains Out of the Picture.

Friday, January 24, 2020 3:35 PM

A light freeze occurred across parts of the Hill Country Friday morning, while at most other locations, readings stayed well above freezing. Sunny, mild and pleasant weather conditions will be in place this afternoon as Wednesday's storm system moves off to Ohio Valley region. Today's temperature is expected to warm to the mid and upper 60s. Expect a light northeasterly wind at 5-10 mph. Lows Saturday morning will generally be in the low and mid-40s.

Forecasts call for 3 troughs of low pressure embedded in the Polar jet stream to dip southeast and move over our region over the upcoming week. Each of these systems will have the potential to cause the development of light rain showers and a few isolated thunderstorms, but no significant of heavy rain is expected.

The first of the 3 troughs was located Friday morning over Nevada. This system is forecast to dive southeast, reaching North Texas Saturday night into Sunday morning. In advance of the approaching trough, weather conditions Saturday morning will be mostly sunny, followed by increasing clouds in the afternoon. Temperatures will generally reach the mid-60s. Expect a south wind at 10-15 mph. Scattered rain showers look to develop Saturday evening into Saturday night from the eastern Hill Country to the middle Texas coast as weak atmospheric lift spreads over the area. A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible over the coastal plains regions. The showers are forecast to continue into Sunday morning, with the rain tapering off from west to east before noon. The probability for rain will be near 60 percent. Rain amounts are predicted to be low across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, with most totals staying under a quarter inch. Parts of the coastal plains could see totals to around a half inch. Lows Sunday morning will be in the 40s across the Hill Country and in the low to mid-50s at most other locations.

The sky will become sunny Sunday afternoon and continue through Monday as trough #1 exits to the northeast. High temperatures Sunday will generally be near 68-72 degrees. Lows Monday morning will range from the upper 30s west to the mid-40s near the coast. High temperatures Monday will be mostly in the upper 60s. Lows Tuesday morning will be mostly in the upper 40s.

Trough number 2 is forecast to sink southeast out of the southern Rockies and move across northern Texas on Tuesday. Forecasts call for the development of light rain showers across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions beginning late Monday night, continuing till about midday Tuesday. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast across the coastal plains. The probability for rain will be near 30-40 percent and the rain should end from west to east late Tuesday afternoon. Rain amounts are forecast to total below a quarter inch across the Hill Country and Central Texas and be near a quarter inch across the coastal plains. High temperatures Tuesday will be in the mid and upper 60s. Lows Wednesday morning will range from around 40 degrees west to the upper 40s near the coast.

A mostly sunny sky and mild weather is forecast Wednesday as trough number 2 exits to the east. High temperatures will be in the mid-60s.

Trough number 3 is forecast to sink south into northern Mexico Wednesday and track east across South Texas Thursday into Friday. The approaching trough is expected to cause the development of light rain showers and isolated thunderstorms beginning early Thursday morning, with periods of light rain continuing till about midday Friday. The probability for rain will be near 40 percent. Rain amounts are expected to average between a quarter and a half inch. High temperatures Thursday will be in the low and mid-60s. Lows Friday morning will be in the mid-40s.

The parade of low pressure troughs is forecast to slow down late next week as a stable ridge of high pressure spreads over Texas out of the Desert Southwest. Sunny, dry and mild weather is forecast next weekend, continuing into the early part of the following week. High temperatures are forecast to hold in the mid and upper 60s, with lows in the 40s to around 50 degrees. Longer-range forecasts indicate a slight chance for rain will occur around February 5th when a weak cold front pushes through the area. This front is not expected to bring any significant change to our temperatures through the first full week of February.

An Unusually Mild January for Austin

Texas is having one of the mildest Januarys on record. In Austin, that fact is quite evident as Camp-Mabry has failed to even record a freezing temperature so far this month. And forecasts indicate we likely won't see one through the end of next week. A January without a freezing temperature is rare for Austin, but not unprecedented. According to Camp Mabry's climate data base, there have been 5 other Januarys dating back to 1897 with no freezing temperatures recorded, with the most recent one being in 2006. Month to date, January 2020 ranks as the 7th mildest January on record for Austin.

Have a good weekend.

Bob

Previous Blog Entries

Our Mild Winter is Fooling Plants and Trees to Think Spring is Here.

Wednesday, January 22, 2020 5:38 PM

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We've all seen how mild this winter has been. January is supposed to be the coldest month of winter but Austin hasn't even recorded a freezing temperature so far this month. Data shows that at least so far, this is one of the mildest winters ever record.

And to no surprise, it appears some of the plants and trees in our area are responding to these mild temperatures and thinking spring is here. According to recent data from the National Phenology Network, http://usanpn.org spring leaf-out has arrived in Austin along with Central and South Texas.

"Spring leaf out has arrived in the Southeast, over three weeks earlier than the long-term average (1981-2010) in some locations. Austin, TX is 10 days early, Jackson, MS and Charleston, SC are 17 days early, and Wilmington, NC is 22 days early".

The "First Leaf" Index map below shows locations that have reached the requirements for the Spring Leaf Index model so far this year along with the anomaly compared to normal:

The Extended Spring Indices produced by NPN are mathematical models that predict the "start of spring" (timing of leaf out or bloom for species active in early spring) at a particular location (Schwartz 1997, Schwartz et al. 2006, Schwartz et al. 2013). These models were constructed using historical observations of the timing of first leaf and first bloom in a cloned lilac cultivar (S. x chinensis 'Red Rothomagensis') and two cloned honeysuckle cultivars (Lonicera tatarica 'Arnold Red' and L. korolkowii 'Zabelii').

Primary inputs to the model are temperature and weather events, beginning January 1 of each year (Ault et al. 2015). Maps are based on temperature products from NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis.

According to the NPN, to calculate how often we see a spring like the current year, for each pixel, they subtract the 30-year average (1981-2010) day of year value from the current year's Spring Index Anomaly day of year value. Negative values represent locations that have reached or are anticipated to reach the Spring Index requirements earlier than average, and positive values represent locations that have reached or are anticipated to reach the Spring Index requirements later than average.

Based on temperatures and weather observed so far this January, it appears spring is arriving very early across Central Texas. Be on the lookout for more and more plants to leaf and bud out in the coming days and weeks as our very mild winter continues.

Bob

Showers Wednesday with Another Chance for Rain Expected Sunday.

Tuesday, January 21, 2020 3:17 PM

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Weather conditions are quiet across Central and South Texas, but a trend towards a wet weather pattern is not far off. Tuesday's weather maps showed a vigorous trough of low pressure located over southern California and northwestern Mexico, moving to the east. Forecast call for the system to track across Texas Wednesday into early Thursday, causing the development of widespread rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. The trough is forecast to exit east on Thursday, allowing dry and sunny weather to return for Friday and Saturday.

This afternoon, the sky will be mostly cloudy as considerable middle and high-level clouds spread over the region in advance of the approaching storm system. High temperatures will generally be near 58-60 degrees. Expect a light southeasterly wind at 5-10 mph.

Light rain showers are forecast to develop across western Texas this evening as moisture begins streaming northeast from the Gulf. The activity should spread east over the Hill Country, Central Texas and the coastal region after midnight. Lows Wednesday morning will be in the low and mid-40s. Southeasterly winds will increase to around 10-15 mph.

For Wednesday and Wednesday night, widespread light to moderate rain showers and even a couple of isolated thunderstorms are predicted. The rain is expected to taper off from west to east between midnight Wednesday night and sunrise Thursday morning as the storm system moves east. Due to limited atmospheric instability, no strong or severe storms are forecast. High temperatures Wednesday will be in the mid and upper 50s. Lows Thursday morning will range from the low and mid-40s west to the mid-50s near the coast.

Rain amounts occurring between Tuesday night and Wednesday night are forecast to be heaviest for locations east of Interstate 35 and lightest across the western and northern Hill Country. National Weather Service rainfall forecasts call for storm totals to be less than a quarter inch across the western Hill Country and be between 0.25 and 0.75 inches across the central and eastern Hill Country. For the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor and locations east, totals should generally average between 0.5 and 1.25 inches.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 6 pm Tuesday through 6 pm Friday:

Dry northwesterly winds in the middle and upper atmosphere in the wake of the departing storm system will cause sunny, dry and mild weather conditions Thursday afternoon through Saturday.

High temperatures Thursday will generally be in the low 60s, while being near 70 degrees towards the coast.

Lows Friday morning will include the low and mid-30s Hill Country, be around 38-40 degrees central with low 40s towards the coast.

High temperatures Friday will be in the low and mid-60s

Lows Saturday morning will range from the mid-30s west to the low 40s near the coast.

High temperatures Saturday will be in the mid and upper 60s.

Forecasts call for the development of a few light rain showers across the Austin/Central Texas region and the middle Texas coast late Saturday through midday Sunday when a small trough of low pressure tracks northeast out of northern Mexico. Rain amounts should be low, with most totals averaging less than a quarter inch. Sunday's sky is predicted to be partly cloudy as the trough moves off to the east. High temperatures Sunday will generally be in the mid and upper 60s.

Looking ahead to next week, forecasts call for a chance for rain to development next Tuesday into Wednesday when another large trough of low pressure sinks southeast into Texas out of the southern Rockies. Expect a mostly sunny sky on Monday, followed by a chance for rain showers late Tuesday into Wednesday. Early thoughts on rain amounts with this system are for totals to generally average between 0.25 and 0.50 inches. Dry and sunny weather is forecast next Thursday and Friday. Temperatures look to be fairly mild the first half of the week, with highs in the 60s and lows in 40s. Readings should trend cooler late week behind the cold front, with highs falling to the 50s.

Long-range forecasts still don't show any true arctic air spreading into our region over through early February.

An Unusually Mild January

As you may have noticed, temperatures have been unusually mild so far this month. Temperatures for the first 20 days of the month have generally averaged between 6 and 7 degrees above normal! Austin-Camp Mabry has not even recorded a freeze so far during the month. At Camp Mabry, the temperature has averaged 7.3 degrees above normal. Month to date, January 2020 ranks as the 7th mildest January on record.

Have a good week.

Bob

Cooler Temperatures Arriving Saturday. Monitoring Another Chance for Rain Next Wednesday and Thursday.

Friday, January 17, 2020 3:52 PM

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A cold front sinking south through much of the area on Thursday caused widespread overrunning rains. The highest accumulations through early afternoon Friday have been across the western and northern Hill Country along with Gillespie County, where totals have generally averaged between 1 and 2 inches. A few spots near and just north of Brownwood have received more than 2 inches. Totals across much of the Hill Country and Central Texas regions have generally averaged close to a half inch. There has been very little rain so far for locations located to the south of Interstate 10.

Thursday's cold front stalled out near the Interstate 10 corridor Thursday night but is now beginning to lift back to the north. As of early afternoon, temperatures in the 70s were pressing north into Fayette and Bastrop Counties while temperatures were still in the 40s and low 50s across the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor. The warm front should punch north of the Austin area by this evening. A strong trough of low pressure pushing east out of the southern Rockies is drawing considerable clouds and moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in a cloudy sky across the state. Weak atmospheric lift out ahead of the trough will continue to cause the development of light to moderate rain showers, especially for areas located north of the warm front.

For this afternoon through this evening, a wet and unsettled weather pattern will continue as the trough over the southern Rockies slowly pushes to the east. The most favorable area for rain will be across the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor, where the probability for rain will be near 60 percent. For areas south of the warm front, the probability for rain will be near 20-30 percent. Temperatures will remain cool across the Hill Country and I-35 corridor this afternoon, where readings will stay in in the 40s to low 50s. Across the coastal plains and most of Central Texas, afternoon readings will warm into the low and middle 70s.

A Canadian cold front connect to the trough of low pressure is forecast to push south out of the Panhandle tonight. The front is expected to move across the Hill Country between about 3 am and 7 am then move across Austin and Central Texas between 7 am and noon. The front should spread over the coastal plains after that, pushing off the coast by sunset on Saturday. An area of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms is forecast to develop along and just behind the cold front. The rain should taper off across the Hill Country by sunrise Saturday and end across Central Texas by noon. Here, the sky will become mostly sunny in the afternoon and temperatures will warm to the low and mid-60s. Across the coastal plains region, there will be a 50 percent chance for rain showers on Saturday, with the rain ending by about sunset. High temperatures will be in the low 70s. Expect a north wind at 10-15 mph, with gusts to 25 mph behind the cold front.

Additional rain amounts of 0.25-1 inch are forecast this afternoon through Saturday afternoon.

A second, stronger cold front looks to push south across the area Saturday evening, bringing in cooler air for Sunday and the first half of next week. Expect a sunny to mostly sunny sky and noticeably cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday. In fact, a light freeze will be possible across the Hill Country and parts of Central Texas Sunday, Monday and Tuesday mornings.

Lows Sunday morning will be near 30-32 degrees across the Hill Country, in the low and mid-30s across Central Texas and the lower 40s across the coastal plains.

High temperatures Sunday will be in the middle 50s.

Lows Monday morning will be around 28-30 degrees across the Hill Country, be near 32-35 degrees across Central Texas and in the upper 30s towards the coast.

High temperatures Martin Luther King Jr. Day will be in the mid and upper 50s.

Lows Tuesday morning will include the low 30s across the Hill Country, the low and mid-30s across Central Texas and the upper 30s towards the coast.

High temperatures Tuesday will be in the mid and upper 50s.

The latter part of next week is shaping up to be fairly wet across the region. Forecast solutions call for a vigorous trough of low pressure to track across Texas out of northern Mexico next Wednesday into Thursday. Clouds and moisture are forecast to spread north Texas in advance of the trough next Tuesday. Widespread rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are predicted to develop Wednesday through Thursday as the trough pushes to the east. This system is shaping up to be fairly wet, with storm totals of 1-2 inches forecast for areas along and east of Interstate 35. Totals of 0.5-1 inch are forecast across the Hill Country. High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will be around 60-65 degrees, with lows in the 40s to near 50 degrees.

Dry and sunny weather is forecast next Friday, continuing into next weekend in the wake of the departing trough. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s, with lows in the 40s.

Looking into the week of the January 27th, forecasts call for another storm system to move across the state, causing another period of rain. Temperatures are expected to stay near normal, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

Have a good weekend.

Bob

Mid-Winter Weather Stats and the Outlook for Winter's Second Half.

Thursday, January 16, 2020 5:36 PM

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We've reached the mid-point of meteorological winter (December through February) and for the first two quarters, there actually hasn't been a whole lot of winter weather to speak of. Temperatures have averaged well above normal and precipitation has been well below normal. It has been one of the mildest first halves of winter on record. There have been few freezes and no significant wintery weather. From a weather standpoint, winter's offense has pretty much been a no-show while we've seen lots of defense offered up by the mild air located over the Gulf of Mexico.

Looking at temperature stats for winter's first half (December 1 – January 15), readings have generally averaged between 3 and 5 degrees above normal across the entire region. The very mild temperatures occurring so far across Texas appear to be part of a mild winter pattern that is gripping much of the eastern half of the U.S.

First half temperature stats for Austin-Camp Mabry show the average temperature between December 1 and January 15 has been 57.0 degrees. (An average high of 68.6 degrees and an average low of 45.5 degrees).

This ranks as the second warmest December 1-January 15 on record. (A similar period in 1907 came in at first place with an average temperature of 61.0 degrees).
The average high temperature of 68.6 degrees ranks as the second warmest on record and the average low temperature of 45.5 degrees ranks as the 7^th warmest on record.
Looking at first half temperature state for Austin-Bergstrom Airport, the average temperature between December 1 and January 15 has been 53.8 degrees. (An average high of 68.6 degrees and an average low temperature of 38.9 degrees).
This ranks as the 15^th warmest December 1 – January 15 on record.

The average high temperature of 68.6 degrees ranks as the third warmest on record and the average low temperature of 38.9 degrees ranks as the 44^th mildest on record.

First half rainfall stats show most of the Hill Country and Central Texas has received only between 1 and 2 inches of rain. Compared to normal, these totals have been 1-2 inches below normal across the Hill Country and between 2 and 3 inches below normal for locations to the east of Interstate 35.

For Austin-Camp Mabry, rainfall has totaled 1.59 inches. This ranks as the 32^nd driest December 1 – January 15 on record.
For Austin-Bergstrom, rainfall has totaled 1.34 inches. This ranks as the 21^st driest December 1-January 15 on record.

On Thursday, The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center gave their updated prediction for the second half of winter. CPC forecasters believe winter's temperature offense will likely continue to be a now show, with slightly increased odds for temperatures to average above normal during February. On the precipitation side, the outlook is somewhat mixed, with no clear trend for above, near-normal or below normal rainfall. On a positive side, however, the updated forecast for no clear rainfall trend is different from the one issued a month ago which called for below normal rainfall. Could the rainfall be mounting an offensive comeback in February? Stay tuned for further updates.

Bob

A Wet Pattern Developing for Thursday and Friday.

Tuesday, January 14, 2020 4:33 PM

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A period of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will be developing Thursday, with the wet pattern expected to continue Thursday night through Friday night. In this upcoming pattern, the highest totals of rain are forecast to occur across the Hill Country, with the lowest totals expected over Central Texas and the middle Texas coast.

Forecasters are monitoring 2 features that will be moving across the state that are predicted to enhance the chance for rain. The first feature is a Canadian cold front that is forecast to sink south through the area and stall just north of the Interstate 10 corridor Thursday afternoon. The front is forecast to stall out Thursday night and return north as a warm front on Friday. A stronger cold front is forecast to push south across the area on Saturday.

The second feature will be a vigorous trough of low pressure that will track northeast across the western half of Texas late Friday into Saturday morning.

In advance of the approaching trough of low pressure, south and southwesterly winds in the middle and upper atmosphere are expected to pull warm, moist air up and over the stalled cold front. This will result in widespread overrunning clouds along with periods of light to moderate rain and even a couple of isolated thunderstorms. The probability for rain Thursday and Thursday night will range from 70 percent across the Hill Country to 50 percent across Central Texas to near 30 percent across the coastal plains.

Periods of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to occur across the region Friday through Friday night as the trough of low pressure slowly lifts northeast out of northern Mexico. With the trough's path being mainly over West Texas, the most concentrated area of rain is forecast to occur across West Texas and the Hill Country, with lighter amounts of rain expected to occur across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast. The probability for rain Friday will be near 80 percent across the Hill Country, near 70 percent across Central Texas and near 40 percent across the coastal plains.

Strong or severe thunderstorms are not anticipated as this will mainly be an overrunning-type of rain event. The rain should taper off from west to east late Friday night and toward sunrise on Saturday.

Rain amounts Thursday through Saturday are generally forecast to average between 0.5 and 1 inch. Meanwhile, totals across the Austin/Central Texas area and the middle Texas coast should be around a quarter inch.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 6 pm Tuesday through 6 pm Sunday:

Weather conditions are looking to be sunny, dry and cooler this weekend. Highs in the low and mid-60s Saturday morning will fall to the mid-50s on Sunday. Lows Sunday morning will be in the 30s.

The outlook for early next week calls for another chance for rain developing Monday and Tuesday, with a break from the rain occurring the middle of next week.

Bob

Cloudy and Mild throughout the Week. Temperatures Trending Cooler Beginning this Weekend.

Monday, January 13, 2020 4:04 PM

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The new week is starting off cloudy with patchy drizzle and even a few light rain showers over the coastal plains. Today's gloomy weather is the result of a weak overrunning pattern that developed Sunday night. The cold front which pushed through our area late Friday night is currently located in the Gulf of Mexico, just off the lower and middle Texas coast. Strengthening southerly winds in the lower atmosphere are pulling warm, moist air up and over the frontal boundary, resulting in widespread clouds across a large part of Texas. This cloudy, overrunning pattern is forecast to continue this afternoon and tonight as the warm front remains along the coast.

For this afternoon and tonight, there will be a 40 percent chance for scattered rain showers across the coastal plains region and a 20 percent chance for rain showers across the Austin/Central Texas region. Rain amounts should be low, with most totals only averaging around a tenth of an inch. Widespread fog looks to develop once again across the Interstate 35 corridor and areas to the southeast late this evening, continuing into Tuesday morning. Afternoon temperatures are expected to warm to the upper 60s across the Hill Country and to the low to mid-60s at most other locations. Lows Tuesday morning will range from the low and mid-50s across the Hill Country to the low 60s near the coast.

On Tuesday, the warm front is predicted to lift north from the coast during the afternoon. Widespread fog will be in place through late morning, but it should lift by the afternoon. There will be a 60 percent chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the coastal plains region throughout the day, with totals averaging between 0.25 and 0.50 inches. For the Austin/Central Texas region, there will be just a 20 percent chance for rain showers. Here, totals should average less than a tenth of an inch. No rain is forecast across the Hill Country. Temperatures will trend milder Tuesday as the warm front brings warm air north from the Gulf. Temperatures look to generally reach the low and mid-70s. Lows Wednesday morning will range from the upper 50s west, to the upper 60s near the coast. Just some patchy fog is forecast for Tuesday night.

Wednesday's weather is shaping up to be mostly cloudy and quite mild as considerable moisture continues to spread north from the Gulf and the eastern Pacific. There will be a 20 percent chance for isolated rain showers and thunderstorms across the region. However, rainfall, if any, should only total around a tenth of an inch. High temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 70s. Lows Thursday morning will be in the 50s across the Hill Country and in the low 60s at most other locations.

There will be a 40-50 percent chance for scattered rain showers across the region Thursday when a weak cold fonts sags south out of North Texas. Forecasts call for the front to stall just north of the Interstate 10 corridor Thursday evening before moving back to the north on Friday. Thursday's sky will remain cloudy. Rain amounts Thursday through Thursday night are forecast to generally average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches. High temperatures Thursday will range from the upper 60s north, to the low 70s central to the upper 70s near the coast. Lows Friday morning will range from the mid and upper 50s across the Hill Country to the mid-60s near the coast.

Friday's weather is looking to be mostly cloudy with a 30-40 percent chance for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Rain amounts are forecast to remain under a quarter inch. Mild temperatures will continue, with highs in the mid and upper 70s.

A change to our current mild January weather pattern is forecast to take place beginning this weekend when the first in a series of Canadian cold fronts pushes south through our area. This first front is forecast to track through our area Friday night into Saturday morning. There will be a slight chance for a few showers along the front, with sunny, dry and cooler weather developing behind the front Saturday and Sunday.

High temperatures Saturday will be in the low and mid-60s.

Lows Sunday morning will include the low and mid-30s across the Hill Country, the mid and upper 30s across Central Texas and the low to mid-40s towards the coast.

High temperatures Sunday will be in the upper 50s to 60 degrees.

Lows Monday morning will be in the mid and upper 40s.

The outlook for next week calls for a somewhat unsettled weather pattern along with cool temperatures. Forecasts call for a the next cold front to push south through the area Monday morning. There will be a chance for rain showers across the region Monday afternoon into Monday night, with the rain tapering off Tuesday morning. Rain amounts are forecast to average less than a quarter inch. Another chance for rain is forecast next Wednesday into Thursday when a trough of low pressure pushes east out of Mexico. Once again, rain amounts should remain under a quarter inch. High temperatures next Monday through Wednesday are forecast to be in the 50s, with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. High temperatures Thursday and Friday are forecast to be around 60-62 degrees, with lows in the 40s.

Bob

Midday Friday Weather Update and Outlook

Friday, January 10, 2020 1:28 PM

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Forecasters continue to anticipate the development of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms across the eastern Hill Country, all of Central Texas and the middle Texas coast beginning late this afternoon, continuing through this evening. One big change coming from this morning's data is the threat for tornadoes appears to have decreased across our region and shifted more toward Northeast Texas and western Louisiana. While the development of isolated tornadoes cannot be totally ruled out, the overall threat appears much lower than it did on Thursday. The greatest severe weather threats for the Austin/Central Texas area now appears to be large hail and damaging winds.

Friday's weather maps and satellite images showed a vigorous trough of low pressure located over the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico, moving to the east. This system and its associated Pacific cold front is forecast to push into West Texas this afternoon, then lift northeast up toward Oklahoma and Arkansas overnight. In advance of the approaching trough, today's sky is expected to stay mostly cloudy. A few spotty light rain showers will be possible throughout the afternoon but a moderate cap in the middle atmosphere will likely limit the development of isolated thunderstorms. Expect a strong south wind at 10-20 mph, with occasional gusts to 30 mph. Today's readings will warm to the middle 70s.

The main focus of today's weather will be late this afternoon and evening when the Pacific cold front pushes east out of the western Hill Country. High resolution forecast data calls a large area of rain showers and thunderstorms to develop in the mid to late afternoon hours just ahead of and along the front when it reaches the eastern Hill Country. Atmospheric conditions will be favorable for some of these storms to quickly become strong to severe, producing damaging winds, large hail and possibly an isolated tornado or two. The line is forecast to push into the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor roughly between 6 and 8 pm and the area between Bastrop and La Grange between 8 pm and midnight. The line of rain and storms should push into the coastal plains region shortly after midnight. Forecasts do call for an area of rain showers and thunderstorms to continue for a while behind the initial line of storms. The rain should then taper off across the Hill Country and the Austin/I-35 corridor by about midnight and the coastal plains region by about 4 or 5 am.

Today's storm system will be moving into a very spring-like environment and has the potential to produce severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Austin area, all of Central Texas south to about Interstate 10 and the eastern Hill Country under an "Enhanced Risk" for severe thunderstorms from late this afternoon into tonight. Meanwhile, the central Hill Country and the middle Texas coast have been placed under a "Slight Risk" for severe thunderstorms.

Rainfall from the line of rain and storms in not forecast to be all that heavy. Friday's morning's forecast data calls for most totals to average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches. However, totals to near 1-1.25 inches will be possible around Austin and the Interstate 35 corridor.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 6 am Friday through 6 am Sunday:

Sunny, breezy and much cooler weather will follow the storm system on Saturday. High temperatures will generally be in the mid to upper 50s. Lows Sunday morning will range from around 30 degrees across the Hill Country to the upper 30s across the coastal plains. Sunday's weather will be mostly sunny and slightly warmer, with highs in the low 60s. Low Monday morning will be in the 40s.

Forecasts call for a partly cloudy sky and warmer temperatures next Monday through Wednesday. A few spotty light showers will be possible across the coastal plains region, while most other locations should stay dry. Highs Monday through Wednesday will be near 70-75 degrees, with lows in the 50s.

A Canadian cold front is forecast to push through the area next Wednesday night, bringing cooler temperatures for late next week. A few showers are expected along and behind the cold front on Thursday, but rain amounts should total less than a quarter inch. High temperatures late next week should fall to the 50s, with lows in the 30s to low 40s.

The outlook for next weekend calls for generally dry weather with high temperatures in the 60s. Another cold front is forecast to push through the area during the early part of the following week that will bring cooler temperatures for most of that week. High temperatures will be in the 50s with lows in the 30s and 40s.

Have a good weekend and remember to stay weather aware this afternoon and tonight.

Bob

Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible Friday Afternoon into Friday Night.

Thursday, January 9, 2020 2:57 PM

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Forecasters are closely monitoring a vigorous trough of low pressure that is currently moving southeast out of southern California. This system is forecast to reach northern Mexico on Friday and lift northeast across Texas Friday night into Saturday. This approaching trough is expected to produce a period of very active weather Friday afternoon into Friday night over the eastern Hill Country and Central Texas. In advance of the approaching trough, just a couple of spotty light rain showers are forecast this afternoon and tonight.

Friday morning, deep tropical moisture is forecast to spread north from the Gulf of Mexico into Central and East Texas. Although the atmosphere will be somewhat capped, a few isolated rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible Friday morning into Friday afternoon. If an isolated thunderstorm does happen to develop, atmospheric conditions will be favorable for the storm to quickly become severe, with the primary threats being damaging downburst winds and large hail. There is a low chance for the thunderstorms to become tornadic.

In addition to Friday's potential isolated thunderstorm activity, forecasters are anticipating a line of strong thunderstorms will develop along a Pacific cold front when it pushes east out of West Texas during the afternoon. The front and its associated line of rain and thunderstorms is forecast to spread across the eastern Hill Country in the late afternoon, reaching the Austin and the Interstate corridor sometime between 6 pm and 8 pm. The line of rain and storms is predicted to track across Central Texas in the mid to late evening, reaching the coastal plains region in the late evening and toward midnight.

The line of storms is forecast to organize into a squall line of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms with moderate to heavy rain when it reaches the eastern Hill Country and progresses to the east. The primary severe weather threats with the line of storms will again be damaging downburst winds and large hail of 2-4inches in diameter. However, an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Moderate to heavy rain will also accompany the line of storms.

Friday's severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center showed the risk for severe thunderstorms will generally be for areas along and east of a line stretching from Kerrville to Mason to Brownwood. SPC forecasters show a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms over the eastern Hill Country along with Wharton and Matagorda Counties. An Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms was indicated for the Austin area, most of Central Texas and areas to the east.

The rain is forecast to taper off across most of the Hill Country by about 10 pm and the Austin/I-35 corridor around or shortly after midnight. The rain should taper off across the coastal plains region by about 3 or 4 am.

Rain amounts from Friday and Friday night's storms is forecast to be lightest across the western and northern Hill Country and heaviest from the Austin area, southeast to the coast. Totals are forecast to average less than a quarter inch across the western Hill Country and be between a quarter and a half inch across the eastern Hill Country. From the Austin area southeast to the coast, totals are forecast to generally average between 0.75 and 1 inch, with a couple of isolated totals to near 2 inches possible.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 6 pm Thursday through 6 pm Saturday:

Sunny, breezy and much cooler weather will follow on Saturday. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s along with a strong northwesterly wind at 10-20 mph. Lows Sunday morning will range from 30-32 degrees across the Hill Country to the upper 30s across the coastal plains region. Sunday's weather is shaping up to be partly cloudy with high temperatures around 60-62 degrees.

I'll pass along another update on the threat for severe weather on Friday.

Bob

Update on Friday's Threat for Rain and Storms.

Wednesday, January 8, 2020 5:49 PM

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There will be a noticeable change in the weather taking place Wednesday night, continuing through Friday night as a large storm system pushes east out of the Desert Southwest. Southerly winds off the Gulf of Mexico are forecast to pull clouds and moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico beginning Wednesday night. This will result in the sky becoming cloudy Wednesday night and the development of spotty light rain showers and drizzle late Wednesday into Thursday morning.

As considerable moisture streams north from the Gulf, the sky looks to stay cloudy Thursday through Friday. Breezy south winds at 10-15 mph are forecast Thursday through Friday.

The biggest change in the weather is predicted to take place Friday into Friday night when the southwestern trough of low pressure pushes east out of Far West Texas. Increasing moisture and atmospheric lift in advance of the trough is forecast to cause the development of scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the region beginning Friday morning. Atmospheric conditions will be favorable for some of the isolated thunderstorms to become strong to severe—especially for locations to the east of Interstate 35.

Around mid-Friday afternoon, a large line of rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast to develop along a Pacific cold front across the western Hill Country. The area of rain and storms is predicted to slowly spread east, reaching the Interstate 35 corridor Friday evening and the Central Texas region late Friday evening and toward midnight. The line of rain and storms is expected to reach the coastal plains region after midnight Friday night. The rain should taper off from west to east after midnight, with all of the rain exiting the region by sunrise Saturday morning.

Forecast atmospheric data indicates some of the storms embedded within the line may be strong to possibly severe for locations located along and east of Interstate 35. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor under a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms. Meanwhile, areas east of the I-35 corridor have been placed under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms. The primary severe weather threats will be damaging downburst winds and large hail.

Rainfall amounts Friday through Friday night are forecast to be lowest across the western and northern Hill Country, where most totals should average less than a quarter inch. Across the rest of the region, totals should generally average between 0.5 and 1 inch, with isolated totals to near 2 inches possible.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 6 pm Saturday through 6 pm Saturday:

Sunny and much cooler weather is expected Saturday into the wake of Friday night's cold front. High temperatures will only be in the 50s. A freeze is expected across the Hill Country and parts of Central Texas Saturday night. Lows Sunday morning will range from around 30 degrees across the Hill Country to upper 30s across the coastal plains.

Bob