Forecast for Central Texas

Friday Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday
Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
102 °F / 78 °F 102 °F / 78 °F 102 °F / 78 °F 102 °F / 78 °F 102 °F / 78 °F
102 / 78 ° 102 / 78 ° 102 / 78 ° 102 / 78 ° 102 / 78 °
Sunny, Very Hot! Sunny, Very Hot! Sunny, Very Hot! Sunny, Very Hot! Sunny, Very Hot!
Updated August 16, 2019

Reports from LCRA’s Hydromet
Rainfall summary
Temperature summary
Humidity summary

Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

Hot Weather Pattern Not Budging for Several More Days.
Friday, August 16, 2019 5:05 PM



The August 2019 heatwave continues.  Despite a weak cold front pushing south through the area a couple of days ago, triple digit temperatures persist.  Friday's analysis showed the cold front had washed out and was no longer discernable.  As a result, it will no longer be a focus for scattered shower and thunderstorm development.  Similar to the past several days, Friday's analysis showed  a broad ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere stretching across the southern US.  The center, or strongest part of the ridge, was ridge was located over northern Mexico, to the west of the Rio Grande.  For the time being, the weather pattern is quite stagnant.

Friday's forecast solutions call for the high pressure ridge to remain in essentially the same position over the weekend and through the middle of next week.  As a result, no significant change in the weather or the temperature is expected.  Conditions will remain sunny, dry and hot across the entire region.  There will be a slight chance for couple of spotty showers each afternoon across the coastal plains region as sea breeze front pushes inland.  Rain amounts,  where it does rain, should be quite low.  Across the rest of the area, dry conditions will likely  continue.

Daily high temperatures will generally be near 100-103 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and in the upper 90s across the coastal plains.  Low temperatures will be in the mid-70s across the Hill Country and in the upper 70s at most other locations.

Forecast solutions call for the persistent high pressure ridge to finally begin weakening late next week.  The center of the high pressure ridge is forecast to shift from New Mexico and Arizona west to Nevada and northern California.  While a broad ridge over high pressure will remain over Texas, it is forecast to be less intense than it has been over the past couple of weeks.  This pattern of a less intense ridge is forecast to continue into next weekend and the following week.

With a less intense ridge in place, high temperatures are predicted to trend down about 2-4 degrees beginning late next week.  High temperatures across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions are forecast to be near 96-100 degrees.  Middle 90s are forecast across the coastal plains region.

Forecasters will be keeping a close watch on possible developments in the Gulf of Mexico the second half of next week.  Many of the global forecast model solutions call for some sort of open wave or low pressure trough to track from the southern Gulf of Mexico towards the Texas coast late next week into next weekend.  It's not clear at this point if this system will evolve as forecast.  And even if it does, it's not clear if it will remain an open wave or possibly strengthen into a tropical system of some sort.  Should this system track toward the Texas coast, it could possibly bring clouds and rain to parts of Texas by next weekend.   Things here are very uncertain, but it will be something to watch over the next few days.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions remain very quiet across the tropical Atlantic.  There are no systems in place which pose a threat for tropical development over the next 5 days.


August Weather Conditions in Austin through the Middle of the Month

Data through Thursday, 8/15 indicates temperatures this August are rivaling some of the hottest Augusts on record.

  • The average temperature measured at Camp Mabry through 8/15 has been 90.2 degrees.  This is 4.2 degrees above normal. 

 

  • August 1-August 15 currently ranks as the second hottest such period on record, only behind 2011.

 

  • The average high temperature has been 102.1 degrees.  This reading ranks as the 5th hottest average high temperature on record through the 15th.

 

  • There have been 13 days with temperatures at or above 100 degrees.

     
  •  There have been 11 consecutive days with temperatures at or above 100.
 
Have a good weekend and stay cool.

Bob

Previous Blog Entries

A Small Chance for Rain Thursday. Hot and Dry Weather Expected through Early Next Week.
Wednesday, August 14, 2019 6:31 PM


A somewhat rare August cold front was sinking south into the Hill Country and Central Texas regions late Wednesday afternoon.  A National Weather Service analysis showed the front stretching from east to west across the region and extending east to the Lower Mississippi Valley and the southeastern US.
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While the cold front wasn't bringing significantly cooler air, there was enough convergence along and behind the front to produce scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.  An afternoon visible satellite image showed an enhanced area of clouds associated with the rain and thunderstorms close to the position of the cold front.
 
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RAMMB-CIRA 08/14/2019 5:20 pm CDT

The cold front is forecast to sag south and stall somewhere near Highway 290 Wednesday night into Thursday.  Additional convergence along the cold front is expected to bring a 30 percent chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms to the Hill Country, Central Texas and coastal regions Wednesday evening and again on Thursday.  For areas that do happen to see rain, totals should average less than a quarter inch.  High temperatures Thursday look to be in the upper 90s across the Hill Country, near 100 degrees across Central Texas and in the upper 90s near the coast.

The weak front is forecast to dissipate and lose its identity Friday, causing the chance for rain to diminish.  However, a few sea breeze showers will still be possible across the coastal plains region Friday, continuing through the weekend.

The center of the large high pressure ridge which temporarily moved west to northern Mexico and Far West Texas is forecast to shift back to West Texas Friday.  The center of the high is predicted to remain over that same general area through the weekend and early next week.  Daily high temperatures across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions are forecast to be near 100-103 degrees, with middle and upper 90s expected across the coastal plains.

Long-range solutions indicate temperatures may come down about 2-4 degrees the second half of next week as the center of the high pressure ridge shifts to the Four Corners region.

Stay tuned for more updates as the weather pattern is finally beginning to show some slight changes in the near future.

Bob

      

Heat Wave Continuing this Week but Expect Slightly Lower Temperatures Beginning Wednesday.
Monday, August 12, 2019 4:31 PM

 
The August heat wave will continue this week but some slightly cooler temperature are forecast Wednesday through Friday.  In the meantime, the hottest temperatures of the week will likely occur today and tomorrow as the center of the persistent high pressure ridge remains parked over the area.  Monday morning's analysis showed the center of the high pressure ridge located over east-central Texas, between Dallas and Houston.  Forecasts call for the ridge to remain in this same general area through Tuesday.  However, a trough of low pressure tracking east across the northern Plains states midweek is expected to nudge the center of the ridge back west to northern Mexico beginning Wednesday, with the ridge center remaining over northern Mexico through late week.  As the ridge shifts west, subsidence will weaken, which should result in slightly lower temperatures.  This shift in the position of the ridge will also allow a weak cold front to sink south out of North Texas.  While the front isn't forecast to push through all of Central Texas and the coastal plains, it will be close enough to cause the development of a few showers and isolated thunderstorms across the entire region Wednesday into Thursday.

For this afternoon, weather conditions will continue to be sunny and very hot.  High temperatures look to be near 100-104 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and near 98-101 degrees across the coastal plains.  Wind speeds will generally be between 5 and 10 mph.  Lows Tuesday morning will be in the mid-70s across the Hill Country and near 78-80 degrees at most other locations.

Tuesday's weather will again be sunny and very hot.  But temperatures are forecast to be a couple of degrees warmer thanks to some compressional warming ahead of the cold front.  High temperatures are forecast to be near 103-106 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions.  High temperatures across the coastal plains are forecast to be near 100-103 degrees.  Wind speeds will again be light, near 5-10 mph.

For Tuesday night, there will be a slight chance for a few scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the northern Hill Country, between San Saba and San Angelo, as the cold front settles over North Texas.  The chance for rain will only be 20 percent and rain amounts, if any, should total less than a tenth of an inch.  Because of the way the atmosphere will be structured, any developing thunderstorms will have the potential to produce strong and gusty winds.

Wednesday through Thursday, there will be a 30 percent chance for scattered mainly afternoon and evening rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the entire region as the boundary sinks south out of North Texas.  There are some indications the chance for rain will be higher across the coastal plains where an area of tropical moisture is forecast to spread inland  ahead of the front.  Expect a partly cloudy sky and slightly lower temperatures on both days.  Highs temperatures Wednesday are predicted to be near 100 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and in the upper 90s towards the coast.  High temperatures Thursday are forecast to be near 98-100 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and in the mid-90s towards the coast.  Rain amounts both days are forecast to total less than a quarter inch.

A mostly sunny and dry pattern is forecast to resume Friday as the weak boundary dissipates.  Forecast solutions call for the center of the high pressure ridge to remain over northern Mexico this weekend and through much of next week.  As a result, high temperatures are forecast to be about 2-3 degrees lower than where they have been most recently.  High temperatures Friday, this weekend and the first half of next week are forecast to be generally be around 99-102 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and in the mid to upper 90s across the coastal plains.  No significant change in the temperature is forecast late next week as the center of high pressure ridge is forecast to remain out to the west.

Next week's weather is shaping up to be generally dry.

Tropical Weather Update

Weather conditions remain unusually quiet across the tropical Atlantic.  There are no systems in place which pose a threat for tropical development for at least the next 5 days.  Satellite images show a large area of Saharan Dust covering much of the tropical Atlantic, extending west to the Lesser Antilles.  These dusty conditions create an unfavorable environment for tropical cyclone development.
 
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RAMMB-CIRA 08/12/2019 1:40 pm CDT

Bob

Heat Wave Persisting through Next Week. No Rain on the Horizon.
Friday, August 9, 2019 3:54 PM

An August heat wave is maintaining its grip across much of Texas.  The hottest temperatures so far this summer have occurred this week at many locations thanks to a powerful ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere and very dry soils.  Unfortunately, the heat wave is not showing any signs of backing down anytime soon, although some slight temperature moderation appears possible the second half of next week.

Friday's weather maps showed a broad ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere stretching from the Desert Southwest to southern Florida.  The center, or strongest part of the ridge, was situated over northwest Texas.  Sinking air from the middle atmosphere to the surface has been one of the main factors enabling temperatures to reach extreme levels this week.  Forecasts call for the center of the ridge to remain parked over North Texas this weekend and the first part of next week.  There are indications the center of the ridge will finally shift away from North Texas and migrate west to northern Mexico and the Desert Southwest beginning next Wednesday, continuing over that same general area into next weekend.  It's this shift to the west that is expected to cause temperatures to moderate down a few degrees the second half of next week.

This weekend, continuing through Tuesday, expect a mostly sunny sky and very hot temperatures.  High temperatures across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions are forecast to generally be between 102 and 105 degrees.  Across the coastal plains region, high temperatures will generally be near 98-101 degrees.  Note that with the very hot daytime readings, temperatures will have a tough time cooling down at night.  Low temperatures across the Hill Country will be in the mid and upper 70s.  Lows across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast will generally be near 78-80 degrees.  

Wednesday through Friday, expect a mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky and continued hot.  High temperatures Wednesday will be near 101-103 across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and in the upper 90s across the coastal plains.  High temperatures Thursday, Friday and next weekend are forecast to be near 100-102 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas and in the upper 90s across the coastal plains.

Looking out further to the week of August 19th, no significant changes are showing up at this time.  High temperatures are forecast to stay near 100-102 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions.  There are some indications the center of the high pressure ridge may shift from northern Mexico to the Ohio Valley and the Midwest around the 22nd or 23rd.  Should this indeed take place, temperatures locally will likely drop a few more degrees.  And circulation around the ridge will bring moisture off the Gulf of Mexico into Texas, possibly leading to the development of a few showers.  Stay tuned for more details.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Conditions are currently very quiet across the tropical Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.  There are no systems in place which pose a threat for tropical development for at least 5 days.
 
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RAMMB-CIRA 08/09/2019  12:40 pm CDT

National Hurricane Center forecasters released an updated outlook for the remainder of the hurricane season on Thursday.  According to the Hurricane Center, oceanic and atmospheric patterns are expected to become more favorable for above-normal hurricane activity to take place late August through October.  One of the main reasons is the recent ending of El Niño.

The number of predicted storms is now greater, with the Hurricane Center expecting 10-17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 5-9 will become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including 2-4 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater).

NOAA announced Thursday the current El Nino in the Pacific Ocean has ended and neutral conditions have returned. El Nino's typically suppress Atlantic hurricane activity but now that it's gone, we should see a busier season ahead.  This evolution, combined with the more conducive conditions associated with the ongoing high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995, increases the likelihood of above-normal activity this year. 

The Perseid Meteor Shower Visible this Weekend and Early Next Week

Every year in August, the Swift-Tuttle comet puts on a brilliant show in the night sky.  When the Earth plows into its wake, tiny sand- and pea-sized bits of debris hit our atmosphere at 132,000 miles per hour, reach temperatures of 3,000 to 10,000 degrees, and streak across the sky in what we call the Perseid meteor shower.

This year, the meteor shower will peak in the night between Monday, August 12 and Tuesday, August 13. According to NASA, you may be able to see around 15 to 20 meteors an hour during the peak.  Many years, it's possible to see up to 60 meteors per hour during the Perseids.  However, this year, a big, bright, nearly full moon will reduce the number we're able to see.  That means the ideal night to catch the Perseids may be just before the peak on August 11.  Then, NASA notes, the moon will set after 3 am, leaving dark skies to illuminate more meteors.

Once the sky turns dark, you should be able to spot the Perseids rising in the northeastern sky.  However, It's best to wait until 11 pm or later, when the constellation Perseus will be higher in the sky. It may also take up to an hour for your eyes to fully adjust to the darkness to view the meteors.

But you don't need to be staring right at the constellation to see the meteors. They'll radiate out in all directions across the sky.

Have a good weekend and stay cool!

Bob
El Niño Has Ended. NOAA Increases Forecast for Atlantic Tropical Activity.
Thursday, August 8, 2019 5:25 PM

The weak El Niño of 2018-19 has ended. This was the announcement from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Thursday. According to CPC forecasters, seas surface temperatures in the east-central Pacific declined to ENSO-neutral levels during July, and have remained neutral to the present time. Temperature anomalies of subsurface waters have been near-average.  Observed patterns in most atmospheric variables also are showing mostly ENSO-neutral conditions.  Looking at all of these factors collectively, it appears the recent El Nino has come to an end.

 
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The latest set of computer-model forecasts favor ENSO-neutral conditions, with index values greater than zero from late Northern Hemisphere summer into fall.  Interesting, several of the models call for the tropical Pacific waters to warm closer to the El Niño threshold (+0.5°C) by winter.  Atypically, the dynamical model solutions forecasted weaker positive sea surface temperature anomalies than statistical models throughout most of the forecast period.

As a result, while forecasters favor ENSO-neutral conditions, the odds of El Niño (~30%) are roughly twice that of La Niña for next winter.  In summary, El Niño has transitioned to ENSO-neutral, which is most likely to continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20, with odds of 50-55 percent. 

The official Climate Prediction Center is no longer carrying an El Niño advisory, based on the model forecasts through winter.

NOAA Increases Chance for Above-Normal Hurricane Season

NOAA forecasters monitoring oceanic and atmospheric patterns say conditions are now more favorable for above-normal hurricane activity since El Nino has now ended. Two named storms have formed so far this year and the peak months of the hurricane season, August through October, are now underway.

Seasonal forecasters with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center have increased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 45% (up from 30% from the outlook issued in May). The likelihood of near-normal activity is now at 35%, and the chance of below-normal activity has dropped to 20%.

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The number of predicted storms is also greater with NOAA now expecting 10-17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 5-9 will become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including 2-4 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). This updated outlook is for the entire six-month hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30.

On average, the Atlantic hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.  NOAA's hurricane season outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast.  Landfalls are largely determined by short-term weather patterns, which are only predictable within about a week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline.

The Heat is On and Looks to Stay On through Late Next Week.
Wednesday, August 7, 2019 6:10 PM

The hottest temperatures of the summer are expected to take place over the next week as the center of a powerful ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere moves over North and Central Texas.  Air sinking from the middle atmosphere down to the surface associated with the ridge not only creates a sunny and very stable atmosphere, it also compresses when it reaches the surface, causing temperatures to heat up.

Wednesday's analysis showed the large high pressure stretching from the central Rockies to Texas and the Gulf of Mexico.  The center of the high pressure ridge was noted to be over eastern New Mexico and western Texas.  An afternoon satellite image showed scattered fair-weather clouds covering most of Texas on the eastern side of the ridge.  However, moisture pushing north on the western side of the ridge was pulling clouds and moisture into northern Mexico and the Southwestern US.
 
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RAMMB-CIRA 08/07/2019 3:30 pm CDT  

On Sunday, the center of the high pressure ridge was located over central Arizona.  But since the weekend, the ridge center has shifted east to West Texas.  At the same time, afternoon temperatures have ticked up to or above 100 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions.

Wednesday's forecast solutions called for the center of the high pressure ridge to shift further east to a position over North Central Texas by the weekend.  The ridge center is predicted to remain over this same general area until roughly the middle of next week.

With the center of the ridge moving very close to or over the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, very hot temperatures are expected over the next week!

High temperatures across the Hill Country and Central Texas are predicted to be near 101-103 degrees Thursday and Friday, rising to near 103-105 degrees Saturday through next Tuesday.  Across the middle Texas coast, high temperatures are forecast to be near 98-100 degrees Thursday and Friday, rising to near 99-101 degrees Saturday through Tuesday.

Looking out beyond next Tuesday, temperatures are forecast to trend down about 2-3 degrees as the center of the high pressure ridge shifts back to the west.  But readings will still be quite hot, with high temperatures expected to be near 100 degrees next Wednesday through Friday.  Unfortunately, no significant cool down is indicated beyond late next week.

I'll have an update on El Niño in Thursday's report.

Stay cool and hydrated!

Bob

Temperatures Trending Much Hotter. CSU Releases Updated Hurricane Season Outlook.
Monday, August 5, 2019 5:24 PM

 

The big weather news this week will be the return of very hot temperatures!  Readings across the Hill Country and most of Central Texas are forecast to trend above 100 degrees late week and continue at that level into early next week.   Even along the middle Texas coast, temperatures are forecast to flirt with triple digits by the weekend.  Get ready for an extended period of very hot weather.

Over the weekend, temperatures were not quite as hot thanks to more clouds and a few scattered rain showers.  The powerful ridge of high pressure which had been over Texas late last week shifted to the Desert Southwest, allowing for a series of weak disturbances to track south into our region.  These disturbances produced some spotty rain showers, but most totals were less than a quarter inch.  According to LCRA's Hydromet, a few spots did see a bit heavier totals, with the highest amount being 0.72 inches, along Bull Creek near Loop 360 in central Travis County.

Monday morning's weather maps showed the large ridge of high pressure was still centered over the Southwestern US, similar to where it was over the weekend.  Much of Texas resided under the eastern flank of the ridge, with middle and upper atmospheric winds flowing from north to south.  This afternoon, a few additional disturbances are forecast to ride south along the northerly winds, possibly sparking off a few scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.  The probability for rain at any given location will only be 20 percent.  For locations do happen to see a spotty shower, amounts should total less than a quarter inch.  Across the coastal plains region, atmospheric conditions look to be a bit more favorable for the development of scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.  Here, the probability for rain will be 30 percent and totals should average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches.  Today's sky will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy.  High temperatures are forecast to generally be in the middle to upper 90s.  Expect a light south to southeasterly breeze around 5-8 mph.

Monday's forecast solutions indicated a large trough of low pressure approaching the Pacific Northwest will held begin to nudging the southwestern US ridge of high pressure to the east over the next few days.  Forecasts call for the center of the ridge to reach New Mexico Tuesday and the Texas Panhandle on Wednesday.  The center of the ridge is predicted to reach a position over northwestern Texas Thursday, setting up over North Central Texas Thursday and continuing over this same general area through early next week.

With the center of the high pressure ridge moving back over Texas, weather conditions are forecast to trend drier and hotter.  For Tuesday, a few spotty rain showers will still be possible for areas to the east of Interstate 35.  The probability for rain will only be 20 percent.  Rain amounts should total less than a quarter inch.  Sunny, dry and warmer weather is forecast across the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor.  High temperatures are predicted to generally be in the upper 90s, with middle 90s for the coastal plains.

Wednesday through Friday, weather conditions are predicted to be mostly sunny, dry and hot across the entire region.  High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be near 98-100 degrees, with middle 90s towards the coast.  For Thursday and Friday, high temperatures are forecast to be near 100-103 degrees, with upper 90s across the coastal plains.

Saturday through next Tuesday, sunny dry and even hotter temperatures are forecast.  Highs are predicted to be near 101-104 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and close to 100 degrees across the coastal plains.

Monday's forecast data calls for temperatures to come down about 2-3 degrees beginning around next Wednesday as the center of the high pressure ridge shifts to northern Louisiana and Mississippi.    High temperatures are forecast to generally be around 98-101 degrees.  Sunny, dry and hot conditions are forecast throughout all of next week.  Longer-range forecasts indicate similar conditions will continue into the weekend of August 17th.

Tropical Weather Update

Quiet weather conditions continue across the tropical Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.  The strong tropical wave that was located across the central tropical Atlantic late last week, pushed west through the Windward Islands late Sunday.  While this system is still producing some thunderstorms, it is very disorganized due to unfavorable atmospheric conditions.  No development is expected as the system is forecast to remain in a very hostile environment for development.

Elsewhere, there are no systems in place which pose a threat for tropical cyclone development for at least the next 5 days.
 
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RAMMB-CIRA 08/05/2019  1:30 pm CDT

Colorado State University Releases an Updated Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Outlook

Phil Klotzbach and his forecast team at Colorado State University released their August 2019 seasonal hurricane outlook on Monday.  The forecast team continued to predict a near-normal amount of activity this hurricane season. The predicted number of hurricanes increased slightly to account for short-lived Hurricane Barry which formed in July.

Forecaster Notes:  Sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic in early August were cooler than normal, while waters in the central tropical Atlantic were slightly warmer than normal. Vertical wind shear across the Caribbean was indicated to be slightly stronger than average over the past month.  In addition during July, the tropical Atlantic was moister than normal, while the Caribbean was drier than normal.  More active Atlantic hurricane seasons are generally characterized by lower wind shear, more moisture and warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs), so current conditions in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean present mixed signals for the remainder of the season.  Regardless of the weakening of El Niño, the forecast team believes the warmth in the central tropical Pacific will continue for the next couple of months, likely preventing upper-level winds from becoming too favorable for the development of hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean.

Information obtained through July 2019 indicates that the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season will have activity near the average 1981-2010 season.

The CSU forecast team estimates the remainder of 2019 will have about 6 hurricanes (post 1-August average is 5.9), 12 named storms (average is 10.2) and 2 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.6). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be near its long-period average. CSU forecasters expect Atlantic basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2019 to be near their long-term averages for the remainder of the season.

Bob

A Few Showers Possible this Weekend. Otherwise, More Very Hot Temperatures Expected Next Week.
Friday, August 2, 2019 3:31 PM



The hot, oppressive days of August are now upon us.  This week brought some of the hottest temperatures we've seen so far this summer, with most parts of the Hill Country and Central Texas recording triple-digit temperatures.  On Tuesday and Wednesday, the Austin-Camp Mabry weather station recorded a temperature of 103 degrees.  These hot readings developed as a result of the ground drying out and from sinking air produced by strong ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere.  For most of the week, the ridge has been centered over the Texas Panhandle.  But Friday's analysis shows the center of the ridge has shifted west to central New Mexico as a trough of pressure develops from the Ohio Valley south to the Gulf of Mexico.  Forecast solutions call for the center of the ridge to remain over New Mexico through Monday, but shift back to Northwest Texas early next week.    

This afternoon's weather is shaping up to be mostly sunny, dry and quite hot.  High temperatures are forecast to be near 99-102 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions.  Middle 90s are predicted for the coastal plains where a couple of isolated rain showers and thunderstorms will be possible.

With the ridge parked out to the west, some changes to the current hot and dry pattern are forecast to take place this weekend when a trough of low pressure moving south around the eastern flank of the upper ridge reaches Oklahoma and Arkansas.  Forecasts call for an area of rain showers and thunderstorms to develop across Oklahoma and northern Texas Saturday afternoon, with the some of the rain activity sinking south to the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Saturday evening and Saturday night.  The probability for rain will be near 40 percent across the Hill Country and near 30 percent across Central Texas Saturday evening and Saturday night.  Saturday's weather is predicted to be partly cloudy and hot with high temperatures in the upper 90s.

An outflow boundary associated with Saturday's rain and storms is forecast to settle south to Central Texas on Sunday.  This boundary is expected to become a focus for the generation of scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the entire region Sunday into Sunday evening.  The probability for rain will generally be near 40 percent, decreasing to 20 percent Sunday night.  Sunday's sky will be partly to mostly cloudy.  Temperatures should be slightly lower, with readings reaching the middle 90s.  Forecasts indicate a slight chance for isolated rain showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area Monday, but the probability for rain at any given location will only be 20 percent.  Monday's temperature is forecast to reach the mid and upper 90s.

Rain amounts from the weekend rains are not expected to be very high, with most totals averaging around a quarter inch.  A couple of isolated totals to around an inch will be possible.  While widespread severe thunderstorms are not forecast, some of the weekend storms may produce strong and gusty downburst winds.

After hanging out across New Mexico and the Four Corners region for a few days, the center of the high pressure ridge is forecast to shift back to Northwest Texas Tuesday into Wednesday.  The center of the ridge is then forecast to shift southeast towards Central Texas late next week into next weekend.  Based on the outlook for the position of the ridge, weather conditions are expected to trend sunny, dry and quite hot beginning next Wednesday, continuing through the following weekend.  High temperatures are forecast to be near 100-103 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions beginning next Wednesday, continuing into the weekend.  Across the coastal plains, high temperatures are predicted to reach the upper 90s Wednesday and Thursday, and may even flirt with 100 degrees Friday into next weekend.

Today's longer-range solutions call for this dry and very hot pattern to persist through about the middle of August, before temperatures finally begin to trend down a couple of degrees.  Barring any potential activity from the tropics, the weather pattern is expected to stay generally dry through at least the middle of the month.

Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center forecasters are closely monitoring an elongated area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, several hundred miles southeast of the Lesser
Antilles.  This system is generating widespread disorganized showers across the area.  Some slow development of this system will be possible over the next few days as the low moves to the west-northwest.  The low could strengthen into a tropical depression east of the Leeward Islands by early next week.  However, upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development as the system approaches the Leeward Islands Tuesday and Wednesday.  Based on the current forecast, this system poses little threat of moving into the Gulf of Mexico.  NHC forecasters are giving the low a 40 percent chance for development over the next 5 days. 

Forecasters are also watching an enhanced area of showers and thunderstorms located northeast of the Leeward Islands.  This system is moving to the northwest but poses little to no threat for development due to strong upper level winds.
 
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RAMMB-CIRA 08/02/2019  12:30 pm CDT

Weather conditions across the rest of the tropical Atlantic are quiet and tropical cyclone development is not expected over the next 5 days.

Have a good weekend.

Bob

July Weather Review: It Could Have Been a Lot Worse.
Thursday, August 1, 2019 5:55 PM

The month of July is now in the history books.  And while it was a hot and generally dry month, it could have been much worse.  A noticeable change in the weather pattern occurred in late June and early July that caused the wet pattern of spring to diminish.  While most locations across the Hill Country and Central Texas did see at least a little rain, totals were well below normal.  Despite the typical summertime heat ridge setting up west of Texas in early July, lingering soil moisture from our wet spring did help moderate the temperature until late month.  Of course, one of the highlights of the month was that 4-5 day stretch of unusually cool temperatures which brought readings down into the 50s and 60s during the 4th week of the month.

For the month as a whole, July's temperature averaged up to 2 degrees below normal across the Hill Country, just to the west of Austin.  Areas southeast of Austin, between Bastrop, Brenham and Rockdale also saw temperatures averaging up to 2 degrees below normal.  Across the rest of the region, the temperature generally averaged just slightly above normal.  Interestingly, no record high temperatures were established, but a few spots did set a couple of record low temperatures.
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In Austin, Camp Mabry recorded an average temperature of 86.5 degrees, which was 1.5 degrees above normal.  July 2019 ranks as the 19th warmest July on record.  Austin-Bergstrom recorded an average temperature of 84.2 degrees, which was 0.8 degrees above normal.  Austin-Bergstrom did record a low temperature of 58 degrees on July 25th, establishing a new all-time lowest July temperature for the site.  Records at Austin-Bergstrom date back to 1942.  July 2019 ranks as the 30th coolest July on record.

July rainfall was pretty spotty across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, where most totals averaged between 0.5 and 1.5 inches.  However, there were actually a few spots that recorded very little to no rain.  The highest totals of rain occurred across Wharton and northern Matagorda Counties, where amounts of 3-5 inches were observed.


July Total Rainfall:
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Compared to normal July rainfall, most totals were between 1 and 2 inches below normal.  Parts of Matagorda County saw rainfall totals that were between 3 and 5 inches below normal.  (July is typically the 2nd wettest month of summer and the 4th wettest month of the year for Matagorda County).

Rainfall Compared to Normal - July 
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In Austin, Camp Mabry recorded 0.39 inches, which was 1.49 inches below normal.  July 2019 ranks as the 28th driest July on record dating back to 1897.

At Austin-Bergstrom, rainfall totaled only a trace, which was 2.44 inches below normal.  July 2019 tied with July 1993 for the driest July on record!

The month of August is here.  August is typically the hottest month of the year, and generally offers a bit more rain that we see in July.  The most recent outlook for August calls for hotter than normal temperatures and below normal rainfall.

Bob
 

August Weather Shaping Up to be Hot and Oppressive.
Wednesday, July 31, 2019 3:17 PM

The first half of summer was somewhat tolerable, by Texas standards.  Rainfall was above normal in June and the temperature were bearable.  But the weather pattern changed in July, with the rain became less frequent and temperatures heating up.  In fact, those dreaded triple-digit readings began showing up around mid-July.  By late July, weather conditions were downright miserable, with very hot temperatures and no rain.

The National Weather Service issued their updated outlook for the month of August and unfortunately, it appears August weather will continue where July is leaving off.  CPC forecasters believe the large ridge of high pressure currently located across the southern Rockies and the southern Plains states will remain over the same general for a good part of the month.  The ridge is expected to cause more very hot temperatures across Central and South Texas.  At the same time, the ridge is predicted to keep most storm systems away from the region, leading to below normal rainfall.

The official CPC outlook calls for increased odds temperatures will average above normal and slightly increased odds rainfall will average below normal.

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The month of August is typically the hottest month of the year, with daily high temperatures averaging in the upper 90s.  High temperatures often trend down the middle 90s by the 4th week of the month.  Monthly rainfall generally averages between 2 and 3 inches.

Barring any potential tropical activity affecting Texas, August 2019 is shaping up to be quite hot and fairly dry.  But keep in mind the month of October is just two months away!

Bob     

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