Forecast for Central Texas

Friday Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday
Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
73 °F / 48 °F 58 °F / 55 °F 71 °F / 62 °F 78 °F / 68 °F 84 °F / 68 °F
73 ° / 48 ° 58 ° / 55 ° 71 ° / 62 ° 78 ° / 68 ° 84 ° / 68 °
70% 50% 70% 30%
Rain and T-Storms Likely 70%Chance Rain and T-Storms 50%Chance Rain and T-Storms 70%Chance Rain and T-Storms 30%Chance Rain and T-Storms
Updated April 03, 2020

Reports from LCRA’s Hydromet
Rainfall summary
Temperature summary
Humidity summary

Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

Periods of Rain and Thunderstorms to Persist through Tuesday.
Friday, April 3, 2020 3:19 PM


Rain showers and thunderstorms are currently developing across the northern and western Hill Country.  This activity is forecast to expand in areal coverage and spread across the entire region this afternoon and continue into Saturday afternoon as a series of low pressure troughs spread over Texas out of Mexico.  In addition, a Canadian cold front sinking south out of North Texas will enhance the chance for rain and bring noticeably cooler temperatures for tonight and Saturday.

As of midday, the cold front stretched from just north of Waco, to Lampasas, near Junction, to north of Del Rio.  Temperatures behind the front ranged from the mid and upper 30s around Abilene to the mid to upper 40s near San Saba.  The cold front will continue moving south this afternoon and should reach the Austin area in the mid to late afternoon.  The front is expected to reach the coastal plains region sometime late this evening.  Much cooler temperatures can be expected this afternoon and tonight as the colder air spreads in behind the front.  Lows Saturday morning will include the low and mid-40s across the Hill Country, the upper 40s across Central Texas and the mid-50s across the coastal plains.  Expect northerly winds to increase to 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph this afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms and rain showers are forecast to develop near the frontal boundary over the Hill Country early this afternoon, with the activity increasing in areal coverage this afternoon, continuing through this evening.  Today's atmosphere out ahead of and just behind the cold front is forecast to become unstable enough to support the development of strong to severe thunderstorms.  The Strom Prediction Center has placed most all of Central Texas and the southern half of the Hill Country under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms through tonight.
  
DecDep.png

The primary severe weather threats will be large hail and damaging downburst winds.  However, a brief isolated tornado or two cannot be completely ruled out.  The potential for severe thunderstorms is expected to decrease by late this evening as the cold front pushes south to the coast and moves offshore.

In addition to the threat for severe storms, widespread moderate to occasionally heavy rain is forecast to develop across the entire region this afternoon, with additional rains continuing overnight and into early Saturday morning.  Rain amounts through midday Saturday are forecast to generally average between 1 and 2 inches, with isolated totals to near 3 inches possible.

Periods of mostly light to moderate rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to continue Saturday afternoon through Sunday as additional waves of low pressure move over our region.  The threat for severe storms during this period will be very low.  Rain amounts between midday Saturday and Monday morning are forecast to average between 0.5 and 1 inch.  The probability for rain will be near 60-70 percent.

Temperatures will be quite cool Saturday, with high temperatures mostly in the mid and upper 50s,.  Lows Sunday morning will be mostly in the mid-50s.  Temperatures will trend warmer Sunday, with highs in the low 70s.

Forecasts call for the wet, unsettled pattern to continue into early next week as additional waves of low pressure move over the region.  However, the rains are predicted to become much less widespread.  The probability for rain will be near 50 percent Monday, decreasing to 30 percent on Tuesday.  Rain amounts both days should average around a quarter inch.  High temperatures Monday will be around 80 degrees, warming to the mid-80s Tuesday.

Total rainfall through next Tuesday is forecast to generally average between 1 and 3 inches.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 am Friday through 7 am Wednesday:

Rain7.png 
Partly cloudy, dry and warm weather is forecast next Wednesday as a weak area of high pressure spreads over the region.  High temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s.  A few spots may reach 90 degrees.

Forecasts call for a chance for rain showers to return to the forecast next Thursday and Friday when waves of low pressure return to our region.  However, the best chance for rain and thunderstorms is expected to occur next Saturday when a large trough of low pressure moves across Texas out of the Desert Southwest.

Bob

Previous Blog Entries

CSU Forecasters Predicting Another Very Active Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Thursday, April 2, 2020 5:00 PM

After four active Atlantic hurricane seasons, each one featuring at least one Category 5 storm, forecasters at Colorado State University are predicting another very active hurricane season in 2020.

In his first outlook for the 2020 season Thursday, lead CSU forecaster Phil Klotzbach stated: "We anticipate that the 2020 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity. This is due to above-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures, a lack of El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean and other patterns setting up across the tropics".

According to Klotzbach, "the current warm-neutral ENSO in the tropical Pacific appears likely to transition to either cool neutral ENSO or a weak La Niña during the summer/fall. The tropical Atlantic is warmer than normal, while the subtropical Atlantic is quite warm, and the far North Atlantic is anomalously cool.  The anomalously cold sea surface temperatures in the far North Atlantic lead us to believe that the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation is in its negative phase.  While a cold far North Atlantic is typically associated with a cold tropical Atlantic that has not occurred this winter".

The forecast for warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and cooling water temperatures in the Pacific are both expected to trigger atmospheric circulation patterns that could enhance hurricane activity this year.  In addition, Gulf of Mexico water temperatures are already running around 3 degrees above average.  These are among some of the warmest readings on record for April.  While these super-warm waters don't on their own indicate a more active hurricane season, if a storm were able to make it into the Gulf, the added heat and moisture associated with these warm waters could help the storm grow wetter and more intense.

Last3mPDeptTX.png
 
Klotzbach's forecast calls for a total of 16 named storms (long-term average is 12).  Of the 16 storms, 8 are predicted to become hurricanes (long-term average is 6).  Of those, four are forecast to become major hurricanes (long-term average is 2).  The probability of a U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 130 percent of the long-term average, according to the outlook.

DecTotal.png 
One of the more interesting numbers published by the CSU team Thursday is a prediction for Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE, to reach 150 units.  ACE is a measure of how much energy is spent by hurricanes in the form of damaging winds over the course of a storm's lifetime.  The long-term average ACE is 106 units, so this year's season is expected to be quite active!  The Climate Prediction Center refers to seasons with more than 111 units of ACE as "above average."

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1, peaks in the middle of September and ends on Nov. 30th.

Bob

Wet Weather Setting Up Thursday, Continuing through Early Next Week.
Wednesday, April 1, 2020 4:59 PM


I want to highlight a wet weather pattern that will be developing Thursday, followed by more rain Friday, this weekend and even early next week.  Significant totals of rain will be possible.  In addition, there will be a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms across the region on Friday.

Thursday's weather will feature a cloudy sky and mild temperatures.  A few spotty light rain showers will be possible through the morning hours, with a better coverage of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms occurring in the afternoon and early evening.  The probability for rain will be near 60 percent Thursday afternoon, decreasing to just 20 percent late Thursday evening and Thursday night.  Rain amounts are forecast to generally average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches, with isolated totals to 0.75 inches.

Friday through Friday night is shaping up to be the wettest day of this upcoming wet pattern.  Very moist air is predicted to stream north from the Gulf ahead of a Canadian cold front sinking south out North Texas.  Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the region Friday morning into Friday afternoon.  In addition, a large area rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast to develop along and behind the cold front when it sinks south across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Friday afternoon into Friday night.  These heavier rains are expected to reach the coastal plain region Friday evening and continue overnight.  Rainfall forecasts between early Friday morning and early Saturday morning call for widespread totals of 1-1.5 inches, with isolated heavier totals.

In addition to the widespread rain, forecast solutions indicate there will also be a threat for strong to severe thunderstorm clusters developing in the vicinity of the frontal boundary.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of Central Texas and most of the Hill Country under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Friday through Friday night.  The primary severe weather threats will be large hail and damaging winds.  A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms is indicated for the northern Hill Country and for areas south of Interstate 10.

DecDep.png


Friday's cold front is forecast to stall just off the middle and upper Texas coast early Saturday and remain in that general area through Sunday.  As waves of low pressure move over Texas out of Mexico, periods of light to moderate rain and scattered thunderstorms are predicted to occur from Saturday through Sunday.  Totals of 0.25-0.50 inches are forecast both days.

Forecasts call for a 20-30 percent chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region next Monday and Tuesday as a moist and unstable atmosphere remains over the region.  Rain amounts both days are forecast to average less than a quarter inch.  Generally dry weather is forecast next Wednesday and Thursday.  However, long-range forecasts suggest another chance for widespread rain and thunderstorms will develop next Friday.

Rain totals through early next week are forecast to generally average between 1 and 2 inches.  However, the highest amounts are expected to occur across the eastern Hill Country and the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor, where totals of 2-4 inches are predicted.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Wednesday through 7 am pm next Wednesday:

Rain6.png
I'll pass along additional updates on this developing wet pattern over the next couple of days.

Bob

Not as Warm this Week. A Wet Pattern Setting Up Late Week and into the Weekend.
Monday, March 30, 2020 2:56 PM

A wet weather pattern will be taking shape across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions over the next 10 days as forecasts call for several periods of rain and thunderstorms.  The first of these rainy periods will occur this afternoon and evening when a trough of low pressure moves from eastern New Mexico to southern Oklahoma.  Weak atmospheric lift combined with abundant Gulf moisture is expected to cause the development of scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region this afternoon.  At the same time, a warm front currently situated across the coastal plains region is forecast to lift north into Central Texas by mid to late afternoon.  Atmospheric conditions are forecast to be marginally favorable for the development of a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms along and north of warm front—mainly along and north of a line stretching from College Station to Austin to Llano.  Although widespread severe thunderstorm activity is not forecast, a couple of the developing storms could produce large hail and damaging winds through early evening.

The probability for rain and thunderstorms this afternoon will be near 50 percent across the Hill County and Central Texas regions and near 30 percent across the coastal plains.  The chance for rain will diminish across the region by late evening as the upper trough exits to the northeast.  Rain amounts through late evening are predicted to average around a quarter inch, with isolated totals to a half inch.  High temperatures this afternoon will generally be in the upper 60s across the Hill Country, in the low 70s across Central Texas and in the lower 80s towards the coast.  Lows Tuesday morning will be in the low and mid-50s, with middle 60s expected towards the coast.

Drier and more stable air looks to spread into the area behind a Pacific cold front Monday night.  Tuesday's weather is shaping up to be mostly sunny and mild with high temperatures in the mid and upper 70s.  Expect a northwesterly breezy at 10-15 mph, with occasional gusts to 25 mph.

The coolest temperatures of the week are forecast to develop Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.  The combination of a clear sky and light winds will cause the temperature to cool nicely.  Lows Wednesday morning are predicted to reach the upper 40s across the Hill Country, be near 50-52 degrees across Central Texas and reach the mid-50s across the coastal plains.

The sky will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy Wednesday as southerly breezes return to the region.  High temperatures will be mostly in the mid-70s.  Lows Thursday morning will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

A chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will return to the forecast Thursday into Thursday night as the first in a series of low pressure troughs pushes into northwest Texas out of New Mexico.  A couple of the thunderstorms may be strong to possibly severe—especially across the Hill Country.  The probability for rain will be near 40-50 percent and rain amounts through Friday morning are predicted to average around a half inch.  High temperatures Thursday will be in the mid-70s.

A good chance for rain and thunderstorms is forecast across the entire region Friday into Friday night as a cold front slowly sinks south out of North Texas.   Atmospheric conditions are shaping up to be quite favorable for the development of rain along and behind the cold front.  Rain amounts through early Saturday morning are forecast to average between 0.5 and 1 inch. High temperatures will be in the mid and upper 70s.

Saturday through Sunday's weather is shaping up to be cloudy with occasional periods of light rain as a weak overrunning pattern sets up.  The probability for rain each day will be near 40 percent.  Rain amounts Saturday through Sunday are forecast to total between 0.25 and 0.5 inches.  High temperatures both days will be in the low to mid-70s.  Low temperatures will be in the mid and upper 70s.

Rain totals over the next 7 days will be significant across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions.  The National Weather Service's 7-day rainfall outlook covering the period through 7 am next Monday calls for widespread totals of 1-2 inches, with 2-3 inch totals expected along the Interstate 35 corridor.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 am Monday through 7 am Next Monday:

Rain5.png

Looking ahead to next week, long range forecasts call for a slight chance for rain showers Monday, with a good chance for rain and thunderstorms developing next Tuesday into Wednesday when another trough of low pressure pushes east out of the southern Rockies.  Sunny and dry weather is forecast next Thursday and Friday.  High temperatures next week are expected to generally be near 80-82 degrees, with low temperatures in the lower 60s.

Have a good week.

Bob

Rain and Storms Monday. Temperatures Not Quite as Warm Next Week.
Friday, March 27, 2020 3:15 PM

It has been an unseasonably warm week across the region, with temperatures reaching the upper 80s to low 90s.  These readings are more typical of late May and early June rather than late March.  The temperature for the entire month is averaging an astonishing 6 to 8 degrees above normal at most locations!  While it would appear summer has arrived super early, this is likely not the case quite yet.  Temperatures are forecast to trend down about 10 degrees beginning this weekend and remain at that level through all of next week.

Despite this week's long stretch of warm weather, the weather pattern remains quite active across the U.S. and North America.  Forecasts call for 3 storm systems to move across Texas over the next week, with each one causing at least some rain.  The first storm system is predicted to move from the Desert Southwest to Northwest Texas between Friday night and midday Saturday.  In advance of this system, partly cloudy, breezy and warm weather will be in place this afternoon.  Temperatures look to warm to the upper 80s.  Expect a south wind at 10-20 mph, with occasional gusts to 25 mph.

A slight chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms is forecast for the Hill Country and Central Texas regions after midnight tonight, when the West Texas dry line is pushed east in advance of the approaching trough of low pressure.  A chance for rain showers and thunderstorms will continue into Saturday morning when a Pacific cold front pushed east out of West Texas.  The chance for rain will end by midday as drier and more stable air spreads in behind the cold front.  Rain amounts are not expected to be very heavy, with most totals staying under a quarter inch.  The wind will shift out of the northwest with speeds of 10-20 mph.  For the coastal plains region, the chance for rain and thunderstorms will develop around daybreak and continue through late afternoon.  Rain amounts should total around a third of an inch.  High temperatures Saturday will range from the low 70s across the Hill Country to the low 80s near the coast.

Saturday night through Sunday afternoon, expect a most clear to partly cloudy sky.  Lows Sunday morning will include the mid and upper 40s across the Hill Country, the upper 40s to low 50s across Central Texas and the mid-50s across the coastal plains.  High temperatures Sunday will generally be around 78-80 degrees.

The sky will turn cloudy by Sunday evening as moisture begins streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico in advance of the second Pacific storm.  This system is expected to be a little wetter than the system moving through on Saturday.  Forecasts call for the trough of low pressure to be over southern California Sunday evening, with the trough tracking east-northeast through the Desert Southwest on Monday.  Widespread light rain showers and even a couple of isolated thunderstorms are predicted to develop Sunday night and continue into Monday morning.

Periods of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast across the region Monday into Monday night as the storm system tracks across Northwest Texas to the southern Plains.  The rain is expected to taper off from west to east between midnight and daybreak Tuesday.  Rain amounts from this system are forecast to generally average around a half inch, with isolated totals to around 0.75 inches.  Highs on Monday will be in the mid-70s.  Lows Tuesday morning will be mostly in the mid and upper 50s.

Sunny, dry and mild weather is forecast Tuesday through Thursday as a weak ridge of high pressure spreads over Texas out of the southwestern U.S.  High temperatures each day are predicted to reach the mid and upper 70s.  Low temperatures Wednesday through Friday mornings will be in the low 50s across the Hill Country and in the mid to upper 50s at most other locations.

Forecast solutions call for a chance for rain showers to develop next Friday afternoon when a series of low pressure troughs begin lifting northeast into Texas out of Mexico.  Periods of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast across the region from Friday through next Sunday as considerable moisture is pulled north from the Gulf.  Rain amounts over this period are currently forecast to average between 0.5 and 1 inch.  But being over a week away, these forecasted totals may change over the next few days.

The temperature outlook for the first two weeks of April call for highs to be in the 70s to around 80 degrees, with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.  A return to summer-like temperatures is not expected through mid-April.

Venus and the Crescent Moon

Venus and the waxing crescent Moon will be shining in the western sky during and after dusk over the next few evenings.  The Moon and Venus are the two brightest celestial objects after the Sun.  No matter how bad your light pollution, it's never a problem to view these two!  Look for the moon to be below Venus Friday evening and just to the left of Venus Saturday evening.  The moon will be just above Venus Sunday evening.  The moon will also be very close to constellation of Orion.  

Have a good weekend.

Bob

Drought Improves Across the Hill Country and Central Texas.
Thursday, March 26, 2020 4:57 PM

Drought conditions have ended across the Hill Country and the northern counties of Central Texas, including the Austin area.  That's the report from Thursday's updated National Drought Monitor.  According to the latest update, successive periods of rain occurring since late January have brought sufficient improvements in soil moisture, streamflow and fire danger to end the drought which began last summer.

wv2.jpg
Although the Drought Monitor is showing significant drought improvement across the Hill Country, moderate, severe and even extreme drought conditions continue across the southern half of the state, where recent rains haven't been nearly as generous. Thursday's update showed severe drought conditions, the second of four levels of drought, covering the area between southeastern Fayette County and the middle Texas coast.  Pockets of extreme drought were shown over much of Colorado, Jackson and Gonzales Counties.  Southern Travis County along with Hays, Bastrop and western Lee Counties were shown to be "Abnormally Dry".  This designation is not a level of drought, and is given to areas where the drought has ended but there are still some lingering impacts.

Looking at rainfall over the past 60 days, the heaviest rains have fallen across the Hill Country, while much lower totals have been observed across South Texas, including the middle Texas coast.  The analysis shows a widespread coverage of 4 to 8 inches, with some totals to near 10 inches across the Hill Country.  Totals across Central Texas have ranged between 2 and 6 inches while totals near the coast have averaged less than 2 inches.

Estimated Rain Falling Over the Past 60 Days (courtesy of the National Weather Service)

RAin20.png 
Forecasts call for a couple of chances for rain next week, with some hints for significant totals of rain occurring late next week.  Stay tuned for more details.

Bob

March 2020 Shaping Up to be One of the Warmest on Record.
Wednesday, March 25, 2020 5:14 PM

While February temperatures were near to below normal, temperatures in March have trended well above normal.  Using monthly data through Tuesday, temperatures for the first 24 are averaging between 6 and 8 degrees above normal!  Average temperatures across parts of Fayette, Lavaca, Colorado and Caldwell Counties have been averaging more than 8 degrees above normal!
 
Untitled.png

This month's unusually warm temperatures can be attributed to the lack of any sustained cold air along with periods of unusually warm daytime and nighttime temperatures.

In Austin, the average temperature through March 24th has been 68.0 degrees.  This is 7.2 degrees above normal.  So far, March 2020 ranks as the 3rd warmest on record, behind March 2017 and March 1907.

At Austin-Bergstrom, the average temperature through March 24th has been 67.1 degrees, which is 8.1 degrees above normal.  So far, March 2020 ranks as the 5th warmest March on record.

Although temperatures do look to trend a little cooler during the first couple of weeks of April, spring 2020 overall is shaping up to be quite warm—possibly ranking among some of the warmest on record.

Bob

 

Weather Trending Dry and Almost Summer-Like this Week.
Monday, March 23, 2020 1:47 PM

The wet weather pattern we've seen since the middle of last week is on its way out as a more stable atmosphere is beginning to set up across Central and South Texas.  Since Friday, most of the area has received between 1 and 2 inches of rain.  LCRA's highest 3-day gauged total was 2.59 inches at a location in southwestern Llano County.  Coastal areas south of Highway 59 unfortunately missed out on the rain, where 3-day totals generally averaged only a tenth of an inch.

NWS Estimate of Rain Falling Between 9 am Friday and 9 am Monday:

 Rain11.png

Monday's weather started off with widespread fog, low clouds and drizzle thanks to a very moist flow originating off the Gulf of Mexico.  Weather conditions improved through the morning hours as surface temperatures warmed.  This afternoon's weather will feature a mostly cloudy sky, although some occasionally peeks at the sun will be possible.  This afternoon's temperature will generally warm to around 78-80 degrees, with lower 80s expected towards the coast.  Expect a light south wind at 5-10 mph.

The sky is forecast to remain mostly cloudy tonight.  However, a repeat of the widespread fog and drizzle is not anticipated due to southerly breezes increasing to 10-15 mph.  Low temperatures Tuesday morning will range from the low 60s west to the upper 60s near the coast.

The sky is forecast to become mostly sunny Tuesday as drier air spreads into our area behind a weak Pacific cold front.  Westerly winds at 10-15 mph will develop in the wake of the front.  Westerly breezes are typically down-sloping breezes our region, which help warm the temperature.  High temperatures Tuesday are predicted to reach the middle 80s.  Readings Tuesday night will trend a little cooler across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions due to the drier air.  Lows Wednesday morning will generally be in the low and middle 50s, with low to mid-60s expected towards the coast.

Mostly sunny and even warmer weather is forecast Wednesday and Thursday as a ridge of high pressure spreads over Texas out of northern Mexico.  High temperatures both days are predicted to be near 90 degrees.  Lows Thursday and Friday mornings will be mostly in the low 60s.  Expect a southerly breeze at 5-10 mph.

Partly to mostly cloudy and warm weather will continue Friday with high temperatures in the upper 80s.

A small change in the weather is forecast to take place late Friday night into Saturday morning when another Pacific cold front sweeps east across the region.  Atmospheric conditions look to be only marginal for the development of any rain or thunderstorms along the front.  As a result, the probability for rain will only be 20 percent.  For locations that do happen to see rain, amounts should total less than a quarter inch.  Conditions will be mostly sunny and not quite as warm Saturday afternoon and Sunday.  High temperatures Saturday will be around 78-80 degrees and in the mid to upper 70s on Sunday.  Lows Sunday morning will include the mid and upper 40s across the Hill Country, the lower 50s across Central Texas and the mid to upper 50s towards the coast.

Looking ahead to next week, forecasts are calling an unsettled pattern to set up next Tuesday and Wednesday as a trough of pressure pushes east out of the Desert Southwest.  A chance for rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast both days.  A partly to mostly cloudy sky is forecast late week.   High temperatures next week look to be mostly in the mid and upper 70s, with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Comet ATLAS

A recently discovered comet is getting the attention of astronomers and sky enthusiasts as it's become brighter than expected in the last few days. Astronomers using the ATLAS (Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System) in Hawaii discovered Comet C/2019 Y4 (ATLAS) on December 28, 2019.  As of mid-late March, the comet was shining at about the brightness of an 8th-magnitude star – not visible to the eye yet – but within reach of medium-sized telescopes in dark skies. The comet is currently crossing Mars' orbit and is approaching the inner solar system. As it gets closer to us, it'll get brighter still.  If it survives, the comet's closest approach to the sun will be on May 31st.

Comet ATLAS should become bright enough to be easily visible in binoculars, and perhaps bright enough to be seen with the unaided eye from dark sky locations beginning in late April or early May and continuing throughout the month of May.  Just know that comets are notoriously erratic and inherently unpredictable!  We will have to wait to see how Comet Atlas performs.  (Earthsky.org)

Have a good week.

Bob

Another Period of Rain Expected Over the Weekend. Turning Sunny and Much Warmer Next Week.
Friday, March 20, 2020 3:32 PM

A widespread area of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms spread across the Hill Country and Central Texas Thursday night into Friday morning.  The most persistent area of rain developed along a southwest to northeast corridor stretching from Rocksprings to Mason to San Saba.  Within this area, totals generally averaged between 3 and 4 inches.  Totals were considerably lower to the east and west of this corridor, with most amounts averaging around a half inch or less.  To the southeast of Austin, rains increased Friday morning across parts of Fayette, Colorado and Austin Counties, where as of midday, totals were near 1 inch.

The current wet pattern is the result of a trough of low pressure moving across Northwest Texas and a strong cold front that sinking south out of North Texas  As of midday, the cold front stretched from Houston to just north of Wharton, to near Three Rivers.  Temperatures behind the cold front were generally in the 50s, with some 40s across the northern Hill Country.  Winds were out of the north at 10-15 mph, with occasional gusts to 25 mph.  These breezy conditions will persist through late afternoon.

The rain is expected to taper off across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions this afternoon as the trough of low pressure exits to the northeast.  Additional totals to near a quarter inch will be possible.  Across the coastal plains region, showers and scattered thunderstorms will persist through late afternoon along and behind the cold front.  The rain here should taper off this evening.  Totals will average between 0.5 and 1.25 inches.

A cloudy sky and just a slight chance for rain is forecast Friday night through late morning Saturday.  Lows Saturday morning will include the low 40s across the Hill Country, the low and mid-40s across Central Texas and the low to mid-50s across the coastal plains.

Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop across South Texas Saturday morning as another wave of low pressure begins to track northeast out of Mexico, creating an overrunning pattern.  Forecasts call for widespread light to moderate rain showers and isolated thunderstorms to spread north through the coastal plains, Central Texas and Hill Country regions Saturday afternoon, with the activity continuing Saturday night into Sunday morning.  The large area of rain is forecast to end from west to east Sunday morning as the wave of low pressure exits our region.  Totals between Saturday morning and midday Sunday are forecast to generally average between 0.50 and 1 inch.

The sky is predicted to stay cloudy Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.  A few spotty light rain showers will be possible, but additional rain amounts should stay under a tenth of an inch.

  • High temperatures Saturday will be in the upper 50s, with mid-60s expected towards the coast.

  • Lows Sunday morning will be in the low and mid-50s.
 
  • High temperatures Sunday will be in the low 70s.
 
  • Lows Monday morning will be in the low 60s.

The sky is forecast to be mostly cloudy to partly cloudy Monday as considerable moisture remains over the region.  However, no rain is forecast.  High temperatures will be around 78-80 degrees.

A sunny, dry and almost summer-like weather pattern is forecast to develop Tuesday and persist through Friday as a ridge of high pressure builds north into Texas out of Mexico.  This ridge is expected to pull dry and warm air from Mexico into Texas, resulting in the development of some of the warmest temperatures so far this year.

High temperatures are predicted to be in the mid-80s Tuesday, warming to near 88-90 degrees Wednesday and Thursday.  Temperatures should fall back to middle 80s on Friday.

Forecast call or a cold front to spread south across our region sometime late next Friday or early Saturday.  There will be a chance for rain along the cold front, but significant totals are not forecast.  The front will bring slightly cooler air for next weekend and the following week, with high temperatures falling to the 70s and lows dropping into the 50s.


I hope everyone has a good weekend.  Stay healthy!

Bob

A Chance for Rain and Thunderstorms Forecast Thursday through Sunday.
Wednesday, March 18, 2020 5:17 PM

A large complex of thunderstorms developed across West Texas late Tuesday night and spread across Northwest and North Texas.  The southern end of the thunderstorm activity diminished when it approached the Hill Country, resulting in little to no rain.  However, parts of Brown, Coleman and Callahan Counties did see totals in the range of 1-1.5 inches.

Weather conditions were dry and quiet across the region as of midday Wednesday.  Mostly cloudy and dry weather is forecast to continue this afternoon, although an isolated rain shower or two cannot be totally ruled out.  Today's temperature should warm to around 78-80 degrees.

Thunderstorms are forecast to develop and increase in areal coverage this evening across northern Mexico and Far West Texas in advance of a large trough of low pressure moving out of the Desert Southwest.  The area of thunderstorms is predicted to move into the Hill Country by late evening, spreading toward the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor around midnight.  Atmospheric conditions are expected to be favorable for some of the storms to become severe.  The greatest threat for severe storms is predicted to be across the Hill country, generally to the west of a line stretching from Hamilton, to San Saba to Fredericksburg, to Eagle Pass.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed this area under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms through 7 am Thursday.  Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary severe weather threats.  To the east, SPC has placed the eastern Hill Country and the Austin/I-35 corridor under a marginal risk for severe storms.  Rain and storms are spread are forecast to continue till just paste daybreak, then diminish. There will be only a slight chance for rain across the coastal plains.  Rain amounts between Wednesday evening and Thursday morning are predicted to average around a half inch, with isolated totals to 1-1.5 inches.

A partly to mostly cloudy sky is forecast across the region Thursday afternoon as the trough of low pressure exits to the east.  High temperatures will be near 80-83 degrees.

The next chance for rain and thunderstorms for the Hill Country and Central Texas regions looks to take place Thursday night into Friday morning when a second wave of low pressure tracks east out of northern Mexico.  Forecasts call for the development of thunderstorms across northern Mexico and Far West Texas late Thursday evening, with the activity spreading east across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions after midnight.  The activity will move towards the coastal plains region after daybreak on Friday.  Widespread moderate rain and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to persist across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions through about midday Friday, followed by periods of light rain Friday afternoon.  A couple of strong thunderstorms will be possible Thursday night, but widespread severe storms are not expected.  Rain amounts Thursday night through midday Friday are forecast to generally average between 0.5 and 1.25 inches.

For the coastal plans region, widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms are predicted from daybreak Friday through late Friday afternoon.  Totals of 0.5-1 inch are forecast.

A Canadian cold front will push south into the Hill Country and Central Texas regions after midnight Thursday night, spreading across the coastal plains region around midday Friday.  Temperatures will trend much cooler, with highs Friday in the upper 50s to low 60s, although the coastal region will see highs in the mid-70s.  Lows Saturday morning will include the upper 30s to low 40s across the Hill Country, the low and mid-40s across Central Texas and the low 50s towards the coast.

The chance for rain will diminish Friday evening and dry weather is expected Friday night through midday Saturday.  However, light to moderate overrunning rains are forecast to develop Saturday afternoon and continue through Monday morning as another wave of low pressure pushes east out of southern New Mexico.  A dry weather pattern is forecast to develop beginning Monday afternoon.  Weekend rain amounts are forecast to average between 0.5 and 1.25 inches.  High temperatures Saturday will be near 58-60 degrees, warming to the mid-60s on Sunday.

Total rain amounts between Wednesday afternoon and Monday morning are forecast to generally average between 2 and 3 inches across the Hill Country and Central Texas.  A couple of isolated totals to near 4 inches will be possible.  Totals of 1-1.25 inches are  forecast for most of the coastal plains.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Wednesday through 7 pm Monday:

Rain7.png 
Mostly sunny, dry and warm weather is forecast Monday afternoon through late next week.  High temperatures next week are predicted to reach the upper 70s to mid-80s.

Bob
View RSS feed

rss-icon.gif