Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

The circulation around a trough of low pressure across the western U.S. and a broad ridge of high pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley region is helping to funnel remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Barry and abundant Gulf moisture north across the western half of Texas. This moisture, combined with weak atmospheric lift, has resulted in the development of showers and scattered thunderstorms across West Texas, the Hill Country, and parts of Central Texas over the past couple of days. The wet and unsettled pattern is forecast to continue through Thursday night. Showers are forecast to diminish across most of our region Friday as a drier and more stable atmosphere spreads in from the east.

For Wednesday and Wednesday Night

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for areas mainly along and west of Interstate 35 Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening as waves of tropical moisture spread to the north. The probability for rain will be near 50 percent across the Hill Country and near 20 percent at most other locations. The chance for rain is expected to diminish across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast after sunset Wednesday evening. Across the Hill Country, there will be a 30 percent chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening, continuing through Wednesday night.

Rain amounts through sunrise Thursday are forecast to generally average around a half inch across the Hill Country. Isolated totals of 1-2 inches will be possible with some of the heavier downpours. Elsewhere, totals should generally average less than a quarter inch.

• High temperatures Wednesday will include the mid and upper 80s across the Hill Country, the mid-90s across Central Texas, and the low 90s across the coastal plains

For Thursday and Thursday Night

Forecasts call for another good chance for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms across the Hill Country, with the probability for rain remaining near 50 percent. There will be a 40 percent chance for additional showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening and Thursday night.

Meanwhile, a somewhat better chance for rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast for Central Texas compared to Wednesday, as the moisture plume is expected to bend further to the east. The probability for rain will be near 30-40 percent. Across the coastal plains, the probability for rain looks to remain near 20 percent.

Rain amounts Thursday through sunrise Friday are forecast to generally average around a half inch, with isolated higher totals. Across Central Texas, totals are forecast to average between a quarter and a half inch. Across the coastal plains, totals should average less than a quarter inch.

• High temperatures Thursday are predicted to be in the mid and upper 80s across the Hill Country, and in the low 90s at most other location

For Independence Day and Friday Night

A slight chance for rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast across the Hill Country, Central Texas, and coastal regions, with the probability s being near 20 percent.

• High temperatures are forecast to be near 90 degrees across the Hill Country, in the mid-90s across Central Texas, and in the low 90s across the coastal plains

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm Friday:

Weekend Weather

Mostly sunny, warmer, and rain-free weather is forecast across the region as the ridge of high pressure spreads across Texas from the east.

• High temperatures are forecast to be in the low 90s across the Hill Country, with mid-90s across Central Texas and the coastal plains

Next Week

Mostly sunny, dry, and hot weather is forecast for next week as the subtropical ridge of high pressure (or heat dome) sets up over northern Mexico and the Desert Southwest. Temperatures will likely trend warmer throughout the week, with triple-digit readings possible by mid-week.

• High temperatures Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be in the mid-90s across the Hill Country, the mid and upper 90s across Central Texas, and mid-90s across the coastal plains
• High temperatures Wednesday through Friday are predicted to be in the mid to upper 90s across the Hill Country, near 100/101 degrees across Central Texas, and in the middle 90s towards the coast

The outlook for next weekend calls for continued dry weather with little change in the temperature.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions across the Gulf, the Caribbean Sea and the tropical Atlantic are currently very quiet.

National Hurricane Center forecasters are monitoring the southeastern U.S. Atlantic and eastern Gulf coasts where an an area of low pressure could develop by this weekend along a stalled boundary. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slow development, but its possible a tropical or subtropical depression could form in this region over the weekend or early next week. Should a system develop, it is expected drift northward or northeastward, away from Texas.

NHC forecasters are giving this area a medium, or 40 percent, chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 07/02/2025 3:10 pm CDT

More Saharan Dust Expected Next Week

Another plume of light to moderately dense Saharan dust is forecast to arrive over South Texas Friday and spread inland to cover most of the state this weekend. Satellite images show this to be a rather large plume and it is expected to affect Central and South Texas through at least the middle of next week. It will likely cause a milky white sky and lower visibility.

Wishing everyone a safe and happy Independence Day and holiday weekend!

Bob

Another day of scattered rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast for Central Texas and the middle Texas coast Thursday as an enhanced area of tropical moisture continues to spread northwest from the coast. The probability for rain will near 50 percent. Rain amounts will generally average less than a quarter inch, but a couple of isolated totals to near 1 inch will be possible in some of the stronger storms. The chance for rain will extend into Thursday evening, with the activity ending around sunset.  Unfortunately, little of the rain and thunderstorm activity is expected to spread west of Interstate 35 and into the Hill Country. High temperatures Thursday are forecast to be in the low and mid-90s.

Friday will likely see a smaller coverage of scattered showers and thunderstorms as some drier air tries to spread in from the east. Forecasts call for a 30 percent chance for mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across the coastal plains region, and 20 percent chance for rain across the southern counties of Central Texas. Rain amounts, if any, should average less than a quarter inch.  Friday’s high temperature are again predicted to be in the low and mid-90s.

Drier and slightly warmer weather is forecast across the entire region this weekend. The heat dome, which brought a heat wave to much of the eastern U.S. this week, is predicted to weaken in intensity and shift southwest to the Lower Mississippi Valley this weekend. With the center of the heat dome getting closer to Texas, it is forecast to cause a more stable atmosphere, generally dry conditions, and slightly hotter temperatures. Highs both days are forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, but hold in the low 90s across the coastal plains. Do note some of the forecast solutions call for a small area of enhanced moisture to spread inland along the middle and upper Texas coast on Sunday. This area of increased moisture could cause the development of scattered showers across the coastal plains region Sunday afternoon.

Going into next week, sunny and dry weather and hot temperatures are expected. Forecasts call for the center of the heat dome to slowly spread into eastern Texas out of the Lower Mississippi Valley. While a couple of isolated sea breeze showers will still be possible across the coastal region, no rain is expected elsewhere.

The big news for next week looks to be the trend for hotter temperatures.

• High temperatures Monday through Thursday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the mid-90s across the coastal plains
• High temperatures Friday and next weekend are forecast to be near 98-100 degrees across the Hill Country, near 100-102 degrees across Central Texas, and hold in the mid-90s across the coastal plains

Looking into the week of July 7^th, dry weather and very hot temperatures are forecast as the center of the heat some sets up over Central Texas.

• High temperatures are forecast to be near 100 degrees across the Hill Country, near 100-103 degrees across Central Texas, and in the upper 90s across the coastal plains

High temperatures are forecast to lower a couple of degrees late in the week of July 7^th as the center of the heat dome shifts west to New Mexico and Arizona.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions are very quiet across the tropical Atlantic and tropical cyclone development is not expected for at least the next seven days.

Plume of Sharan Dust Forecast to Spread into Texas

Satellite images show a large plume of Sharan dust located over the Caribbean Sea that is spreading to the west-northwest. Forecasts call for the leading edge of the dust to reach the Texas coast on Saturday, with the area of dust spreading into Central Texas and the Hill Country on Sunday. The area of dust is predicted to hang around across the area into early next week. A hazy sky can be expected while the area of dust holds in place.

Bob

It’s now looking and feeling a lot like summer. There has been very little day to day change in the weather over the past week and this persistent pattern looks to continue for at least the next couple of weeks. Unfortunately, no significant or heavy rain is on the horizon. It appears the summer doldrums have arrived.

The main weather feature affecting our region this week will be a large ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere centered over the Ohio Valley. Texas will be on the western periphery of the ridge. Close enough for continued hot temperatures, but far enough away to allow for a few spotty rain showers and isolated thunderstorms—mainly for areas east of Interstate 35. The first half of the week will likely contain the best chances for spotty showers, with rain chances diminishing late week and this weekend.

For Monday afternoon and Monday night

 There will be a 30 percent chance for isolated rain showers and thunderstorms for areas near and south of Interstate 10. A less than 20 percent chance for spotty showers will extend inland to the Interstate 35 corridor. Rain amounts, if any, should average less than a tenth of an inch. Mostly sunny and hot weather will continue, with highs in the mid-90s. Expect a southerly wind at 10-15 mph with occasional gusts to 25 mph.

For Tuesday and Wednesday

A more widespread coverage of spotty rain showers and isolated thunderstorms is forecast across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast as moisture levels increase off the Gulf. Forecasts call for a small, non-tropical area of low pressure to track inland along the lower Texas/northern Mexican coast on Wednesday. This system is expected to pull and an enhanced area of tropical moisture inland, resulting the development of spotty rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. The probability for rain will range from 50 percent across the coastal plains, to just 20 percent across the I-35 corridor. Few if any of the showers are expected to reach into the Hill Country. Spotty totals to around a tenth of an inch are forecast on both days. High temperatures are forecast to generally be in the mid-90s.

Thursday through the Upcoming Weekend

Mostly sunny and generally dry weather is forecast as the ridge of high pressure over the Ohio Valley slowly expands back to the west and southwest. While a spotty shower or two can’t be ruled out near the coast, no rain is forecast elsewhere. The temperature is predicted to warm slightly, with daily highs generally in the mid and upper 90s. Low 90s are forecast across the coastal plains.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm Monday, 6/30

Next Week

Sunny and hot weather is forecast to continue across the region as the center of the ridge of high pressure sets up near the Four Corners. A few spotty rain showers will be possible near the coast, but generally dry weather is forecast elsewhere. With the ridge getting a little stronger, slightly hotter temperatures can be expected. Daily high temperatures are forecast to be in the mid and upper 90s across the Hill Country, the upper 90s across Central Texas, and the mid-90s near the coast. There are indications of daily high temperatures across Central Texas reaching 100 degrees beginning around July 5^th.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions remain quiet across the tropical Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.

Out over the central subtropical Atlantic, A low pressure system located more than 600 miles east-northeast of Bermuda is producing gale-force winds (according to satellite data. However, the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are marginally favorable for further development, and an increase in thunderstorm activity could result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm Monday afternoon or Monday night. By Tuesday, this system is expected to encounter unfavorable environmental conditions, ending its opportunity for development. The system is forecast to move northeastward around 10 to 15 mph, remaining over the open central Atlantic.

NHC forecasters are giving this system a medium, 60 percent chance, for tropical development over the next seven days.

Have a great week!

Bob

The summer solstice will occur Friday evening at 9:42 pm CDT. It’s no coincidence our weather over the next several days will be very summer-like as we remain under the influence of a broad ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere. Unfortunately, the spring weather pattern, which helped bring numerous waves of rain and storms to our area beginning in late April, appears to have come to an end. Forecasts call for only limited amounts of rain across the area over the next couple of weeks as the summer pattern gets going in earnest. Fortunately, no extreme temperatures are predicted as the center of the dreaded heat dome looks to stay either to the east or to the west of our region for the next couple of weeks.

Friday’s weather maps showed a broad ridge of high pressure covering  the southern and south central U.S. The ridge was centered over northeastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma. Over the next couple of days, the center of the ridge is predicted to shift northeast to the Ohio Valley, and looks to bring the first summer heat wave to much of the eastern and northeastern U.S. Meanwhile, Texas will remain on the western periphery of the ridge, meaning continued sunny and hot weather, with little overall change in the temperature.

Breezy, moist southerly winds are predicted for the next several days due to a moderate pressure gradient. These winds will likely help to push the sea breeze front north across the coastal plains and inland to near the Intestate 35 corridor each afternoon. From Friday afternoon through late next week, a few scattered afternoon and evening rain showers and isolated thunderstorms may accompany the sea breeze as it tracks to the northwest. The probability for rain will be near 30 percent across the coastal plains region, and 20 percent across Central Texas. No rain is forecast across the Hill Country. Rain amounts, if any, are forecast to average less than a quarter inch.

A slightly higher probability for showers and isolated thunderstorms is forecast next Wednesday through Friday as an enhanced area of moisture is expected to spread west off the Gulf. The probability for rain will range from 50 percent across the coastal plains region, to 30 percent along the Interstate 35 corridor. Daily rain amounts are forecast to remain well below a quarter inch. No rain is forecast across the Hill Country.

• High temperatures this weekend and next week are forecast to be in the low and mid-90s across the Hill Country, in the mid-90s across Central Texas, and be around 90-92 degrees across the coastal plains.

Looking out into the week of June 30^th, forecasts call for few changes in the weather pattern. The center of the heat dome is predicted shift back west to the Four Corners region, but it is not expected to set up directly over Texas. There will be a slight chance for scattered afternoon showers for areas along and east of I-35, and staying generally dry for areas to the west. High temperatures are forecast to hold in the mid to upper 90s.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 am Friday, 6/27

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions remain quiet across the Atlantic basin and atmospheric conditions appear unfavorable for tropical cyclone development for at least the next seven days.

NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 06/20/2025 12:10 pm CDT 

Enjoy this first weekend of summer and stay cool!

Bob

Sunny and quiet weather conditions are in place as we start off the new week. The trough of low pressure over Oklahoma which helped kick off Sunday’s line of rain and thunderstorms has shifted to the east. At the same time, a large dome of high pressure centered over northern Mexico has spread further to the east since Sunday, creating a more stable atmosphere across much of Texas. Meanwhile, a somewhat unstable atmosphere continues across Deep South Texas, the coastal plains and Southeast Texas. A generally dry weather pattern is forecast across the entire region Tuesday and Wednesday as the ridge of high pressure expands further to the east across Texas.

For Monday and Monday Night

There will be 30 percent chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the coastal plains region Monday afternoon and evening. Widespread or heavy rain is not anticipated. Rain amounts should average less than a quarter inch. Expect high temperatures in the low 90s.

Across Central Texas, a couple of isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening. Totals, if any, should measure less than a quarter inch. Expect a sunny sky with high temperatures in the mid-90s.

Across the Hill Country, expect sunny and dry weather with high temperatures in the low and mid-90s

Tuesday through Thursday

Sunny and dry weather is forecast across the entire region. Expect southerly breezes in the range of 10-15 mph. High temperatures are predicted to be in the mid-90s, with lower 90s towards the coast.

Friday through the Upcoming Weekend

A slight chance for rain will return to the forecast for all areas Friday through Sunday. Forecasts call for a wave of low pressure to push inland across northern Mexico late Thursday and the circulation around the trough is expected to pull higher levels of Gulf moisture inland. This is expected to result in the development of scattered afternoon rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. The probability for rain each day will range from 20 percent across the Hill Country and the I-35 corridor, to near 30 percent in the La Grange area and 40 percent for the coastal plains. Rain amounts each day are forecast to average less than a quarter inch.

High temperatures through the period are forecast to be in the low and mid-90s.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm Next Monday, 06/23

Looking out into next week, a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms looks to continue throughout the week. Forecasts call for the center of the heat dome over northern Mexico to shift northeast to the Tennessee and Ohio Valley regions early next week, with the center expected to remain along the East Coast throughout the week. A moist flow off the Gulf into Texas is expected to cause a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms through the end of the month. High temperatures next week are forecast to hold in the low and mid-90s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions remain quiet across the tropical Atlantic and tropical cyclone development is not expected for the next seven days.

Summer Solstice Occurring Friday Night

The summer first day of summer will occur this year on Friday, June 20^th at 9:42 pm CDT. As seen from Earth, the Sun will be directly overhead at noon 23.5 degrees north of the equator, at an imaginary line encircling the globe known as the Tropic of Cancer, named for the constellation Cancer the Crab, its northernmost point. The North Pole’s tilt toward the Sun is greatest at the solstice, so this event marks the longest day of the year north of the equator.

Have a good week!

Bob

Weather conditions across the Hill Country and Central Texas are expected to trend drier and a bit warmer this afternoon and through the weekend as this week’s persistent trough of low pressure lifts off to the northeast. At the same time, a ridge of high pressure currently centered over northwestern Mexico is forecast to expand east into the western half of Texas. This will cause the atmosphere across West Texas, the Edwards Plateau, and the Hill Country to become drier and more stable.

Friday afternoon through Sunday

For the Hill Country, a mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky and dry weather is forecast. Expect daily high temperatures to be near 90-92 degrees.

Across Central Texas, there will be just a 20 percent chance for a few isolated to scattered afternoon and evening rain showers and thunderstorms each day. Rain amounts through Sunday are forecast to total less than a half inch. Daily high temperatures are predicted to generally be in the low 90s.

Across the coastal plains, forecasts call for a 40-50 percent chance for mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day as several weak disturbances cause a continued unsettled weather pattern. Rain amounts through Sunday are forecast to generally average between 1 and 2 inches. Some locally heavy downpours will be possible. Daily high temperatures are forecast to be around 90 degrees.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm Monday:

For next Monday through Wednesday,  little overall change in the weather pattern is expected. The ridge of high pressure over Mexico is forecast to expand a little further to the east and this is expected to diminish the chance for rain across Central Texas. Meanwhile across the coastal plains region, there will be a 20-30 percent chance for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms due to abundant moisture and the sea breeze front. Rain amounts through Wednesday are forecast to only average around a quarter inch.

• High temperatures Monday through Wednesday are forecast to be in the mid-90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the low 90s across the coastal plains

Late Next Week into Next Weekend

A daily chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast across the region as the ridge of high pressure retreats to the west and a weak trough of low pressure tracks across the southern Plains states. The probability for rain will range from around 20 percent across the Hill Country, to near 50 percent across the coastal plains. As of now, heavy rain is not expected through this upcoming period, with most totals averaging around a half inch. Expect a partly to mostly cloudy. Daily high temperatures are forecast to generally be in the low and mid-90s.

Looking out in the week of June 23^rd, forecasts call for generally dry and warm conditions as the ridge of high pressure returns to the area. Daily high temperatures are predicated to be in the mid-90s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions remain quiet across the tropical Atlantic and tropical cyclone development is not expected during the next seven days.

Rainfall Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning

There were numerous storms with heavy rain across Texas Wednesday night, but most of the heavy rains stayed to the north and south of the Hill Country and Central Texas. Totals of 5-7.5 inches were recorded across the area between New Braunfels and San Antonio and also across most of Matagorda County, resulting in quite a bit of flooding. Nearly a foot of rain was recorded by an observer west of Palacios. Another observer located in northern Calhoun County, near Port Alto recorded over 14 inches!

Have a great weekend!

Bob

The wet and unsettled weather pattern looks to continue Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon.

The large complex of rain and storms which spread across the Hill Country and Central Texas Tuesday night brought showers and thunderstorms to Southeast Texas and the middle Texas coast Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon.  As of 4 pm, most of the rain had exited east into Louisiana.

A large trough of low pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere remains in place over Central and North Texas. Although the atmosphere has temporarily stabilized in the wake of the departing complex of storms, additional showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread across region Wednesday night into Thursday as yet another wave of low pressure circulates southeast into the Hill Country and Central Texas.

High resolution forecasts call for showers and thunderstorms to develop across the Hill Country and the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor this evening ahead of that approaching wave. This will be different from the past couple of nights when the thunderstorms moved into our region from Mexico and Far West Texas. The shower and thunderstorms are forecast to increase in areal coverage throughout the evening hours. Thursday night’s rains are expected to be slow movers, and with the atmosphere still quite moist, locally heavy rain may become a big concern Wednesday evening through Thursday morning.

The National Weather Service  predicts the highest totals of rain will occur near and east of the I-35 corridor, for areas generally along and north of a Burnet, to Austin, to La Grange line. Since this area has seen recent rain and soils are wet, the NWS has  posted a Flood Watch for Burnet, Williamson, Travis (including the Austin metro area), Lee, Bastrop and Fayette counties. The watch will begin at 7 PM Wednesday evening and will run through 7 pm Thursday. Rain amounts of 2-4 inches will be possible in the watch area, with amounts up to 5-6 inches possible in a few spots.

Forecasts call for the heaviest rains to shift east of the Hill Country and Interstate 35 shortly after daybreak Thursday, spreading southeast to the middle Texas coast Thursday morning. Periods of heavy rain will be possible as the large area of rain slowly moves to the southeast. A slight chance for showers and thunderstorms is forecast Thursday afternoon across the Hill Country and Central Texas following the large area of rain and storms.

Rainfall forecasts through Thursday afternoon call for widespread totals of 1-3 inches across the region, with isolated totals of 5-6 inches possible over the area between Burnet and La Grange.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm Thursday:

Some of the developing thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday morning may be strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has place the area roughly between San Antonio and Houston in a 2 out of 5 severe thunderstorm risk. The rest of the area, including Austin and Travis County, is under a 1 out of 5 severe thunderstorm risk. The primary severe weather threats will be large hail and damaging winds.

The threat for heavy rain is predicted to diminish late Thursday as that last wave of low pressure lifts off to the northeast. Forecasts do call for a 20-30 percent chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area Friday through Sunday. However, rain amounts are predicted on only be around a quarter inch.

Bob

Confidence is increasing for another complex of thunderstorms to move across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions late Tuesday night.

Tuesday’s analysis showed a trough of low pressure tracking east across northeastern Mexico and southern New Mexico. This feature is expected to cause the development of a large area of thunderstorms across Far West Texas and the Rio Grande Plains late this afternoon. With a moist and fairly unstable air mass in place, these thunderstorms are forecast to quickly become strong to severe, potentially causing damaging winds and large hail.

High resolution forecasts call for the area of thunderstorms to slowly move to the east, reaching the area between Ballinger, Junction, and Uvalde by about 11 pm. The area of storms is predicted to push east across the Hill Country between 11 pm and about 4 am, reaching the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor between roughly 4 am and 7 am Wednesday.  The storms are forecast to push east of Interstate 35 after 7 am and weaken.

Do note some isolated thunderstorms could develop across parts of the Hill Country and the I-35 corridor after midnight, ahead of the main line of storms.

Some of the overnight storms could be strong to severe. The primary severe weather risks will be damaging winds and large hail. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Hill Country, all of Central Texas, and the middle Texas coast under a 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms through Wednesday.

Rainfall from this complex of rain and thunderstorms is forecast to generally average around 1 inch, with isolated totals of 2-3 inches possible.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm Wednesday:

While this particular complex of storms is forecast to weaken after sunrise Wednesday, showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop and increase in areal coverage across much of Central Texas and the middle Texas coast Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Forecasts call for additional waves of showers and thunderstorms to spread across the region Thursday through Saturday. The probability for rain will be near 70 percent Thursday, but decrease to around 40 percent for Friday and Saturday. This will be followed by just a slight chance for scattered showers Sunday and Monday.

The National Weather Service’s cumulative rainfall forecast through Sunday evening calls for totals of 2-3 inches across the Hill Country and Central Texas, and around 2-2.5 inches across the middle Texas coast.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm Sunday:

Forecasts continue to point toward generally dry and warmer weather next week.

Bob

An active weather pattern will be in place this week as a series of low pressure troughs dive southeast out of the southern Rockies, causing the development of waves of rain showers and thunderstorms through Friday. Each wave of rain is expected to bring a chance for strong to severe storms along with locally heavy rain. The risk for flooding will increase throughout the week as each wave is expected to bring significant rain.

An area of rain and thunderstorms spread southeast across the northern Hill Country and the eastern counites of Central Texas early Monday morning. Rain amounts generally averaged around a half inch. The area of storms dissipated after sunrise. In their wake, the atmosphere over the region has temporarily become a bit more stable. Weather conditions Monday afternoon are forecast to be mostly sunny and warm. There will be a 20 percent chance for a couple of isolated showers and thunderstorms, but nothing widespread is anticipated. Monday’s temperature is forecast to peak in the low and mid-90s.

Attention will turn northwest to eastern New Mexico Monday evening where a large area of rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast to develop ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure. High resolutions forecasts call for this area of rain and storms to track to the southeast, moving into West Texas Monday evening. The area of rain and storms is forecast to reach the northwestern Hill Country after midnight and spreading across the remainder of the Hill Country late Monday through daybreak Tuesday. The rain and storms are forecast to spread southeast to the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor Tuesday morning, then further southeast Tuesday afternoon. Some of the storms Monday night into Tuesday could be strong to severe. The probability for rain will be near 50-60 percent. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire region under a 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms through 7 am Wednesday. The primary severe weather threats will be damaging winds, large hail, and locally heavy rain. Behind the line of storms, there will be a chance for scattered thunderstorms across the area Tuesday afternoon. Rain amounts from this next wave of rain are forecast to be heaviest across the northern Hill Country, where totals to near 1 inch are forecast. Elsewhere, totals are forecast to generally average around a half inch.

Forecasts call for another are of rain and storms to develop across West and Southwest Texas Tuesday evening, with this area of rain and storms spreading east across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Wednesday morning. Additional periods of rain and storms are predicted across the region Wednesday through Friday as more troughs of low pressure track southeast out of the southern Rockies.  Storm coverage Wednesday through Friday will be highly dependent

on what happens on the preceding day. However, with a frontal boundary forecast to stall over Central Texas, the focus for thunderstorms will definitely be there.  The probability for rain Wednesday through Friday will be near 60-70 percent each day. There will be a chance for some of the thunderstorms each day to be strong to severe. In addition, the rain has the potential to become heavier late Wednesday into Friday.

National Weather Service Forecast Rain Amounts by Day:

Cumulative rain amounts through  7 pm Saturday are forecast to generally average between 3 and 5 inches across the northern Hill Country, between 2 and 4 inches across the remainder of the Hill Country and most of Central Texas, and between 1 and 2 inches for areas south of Interstate 10.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the period 7 pm Monday through 7 pm Saturday:

The chance for rain will decrease this weekend when a ridge of high pressure begins to slowly push north across Texas out of Mexico. However, lingering moisture and instability may cause a few scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the area. The probability for rain will be around 30 percent across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and near 50 percent across the coastal plains. Rain amounts both days are forecast to average less than a quarter inch.

Looking out into next week, forecasts call for mostly sunny conditions with just a few isolated showers possible the first half of the week. High temperatures are predicted to generally be in the mid-90s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions remain quiet across the tropical Atlantic and tropical cyclone development is not forecast over the next seven days.

In the eastern tropical Pacific, Hurricane Barbara has developed a couple of hundred miles off the southwest coast of Mexico. Barbara is the first hurricane-strength tropical cyclone of the 2025 Northern Hemisphere season. Barbara is the latest 1st Northern Hemisphere hurricane since 1993.

In addition to Barbara, Tropical Storm Cosme has developed around 620 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja, California. Cosme is forecast to become a hurricane by Monday evening.

The June Full Moon

The June Full Moon, also known as the Strawberry Moon, will be visible Tuesday night and Wednesday night. It will be the lowest-hanging full moon since 2006, making it appear larger and more reddish-orange when it rises on Tuesday, June 10th, in the southeastern sky. This year’s Strawberry Moon is also being referred to as a “micro moon” because it will be at its farthest point from Earth.

Bob