Forecast for Central Texas

Monday
Mon
65 °F / 43 °F
20%
20% Chance AM Rain, then Partly Cloudy
Tuesday
Tue
65 °F / 48 °F
0%
Mostly Cloudy
Wednesday
Wed
65 °F / 55 °F
0%
Mostly Cloudy
Thursday
Thu
75 °F / 55 °F
40%
40% Chance AM Rain, then Sunny
Friday
Fri
78 °F / 55 °F
0%
Mostly Sunny
Updated March 18, 2024

Rainfall summary
Temperature summary
Humidity summary

Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

Friday, March 15, 2024 2:10 PM

Strong to severe thunderstorms developed across the Concho Valley and western Hill Country early Friday. These storms tracked to the east-northeast, dropping large hail across parts of McCulloch and San Saba Counties. The storms also produced a swath of 0.5 to 1 inch totals of rain over the area between Sonora and Brownwood. Other area of showers and scattered thunderstorms spread east across Central Texas around sunrise. Totals here were generally less than a quarter inch. As of midday, all the morning shower and thunderstorms activity had pushed east of the Hill Country and Central Texas.

An active and unsettled weather pattern is forecast for the next two to three days as a weak cold front slowly sags south through the region and several waves of low pressure track northeast into Central Texas out of Mexico. With higher moisture levels now in place, conditions have become favorable for the development of pockets of moderate to heavy rain over the next couple of days.

A lull in the thunderstorm activity is forecast across the region through early afternoon. However, showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop across most of the area by about 2 or 3 pm as the atmosphere grows increasingly unstable. Due to the increased instability, some of the thunderstorms may become severe. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area roughly along and south of U.S. Highway 290, including the Austin metro, under a Slight Risk (a 2 out of 5 risk) for severe thunderstorms through Friday night. Do note the area south of a line stretching from Kerrville to New Braunfels has been placed under an Enhanced Risk, or 3 out of 5 risk, for severe thunderstorms. Forecasts call for showers and thunderstorms to develop close to the position of the frontal boundary, then move to the east-northeast. The showers and thunderstorm activity is forecast to continue into Friday evening, diminishing sometime late Friday evening.

severe0315

Today’s primary severe weather risk will be large to very large hail. (hail diameter in excess of baseball size). Damaging downburst winds will also be possible, particularly if thunderstorm clusters hold together. Some of today’s storms may also produce heavy rainfall which could lead to isolated flash flooding. Rain totals through daybreak Saturday are forecast to generally average around a half inch, with isolated totals of 1-2 inches possible.

Saturday through Saturday night is shaping up to be a cloudy and wet period across the region as the weak cold front stalls somewhere around Intestate 10. Waves of low pressure are forecast to lift northeast out of Mexico throughout the day, each causing periods of rain with scattered thunderstorms. There will be a low-end for threat some of Saturday’s storms to become severe across the Hill Country and the northern half of Central Texas. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area south and southeast of Austin under a Slight Risk (or 2 out of 5 risk) for severe thunderstorms through Saturday night. The primary severe risk once again looks to large hail.

severe0315b

Forecast solutions call for the atmosphere on Saturday to be unusually moist, meaning moderate to heavy rain will be possible with the waves of rain. Rainfall forecasts for the period through daybreak Sunday call for widespread totals of 1-2 inches, with isolated heavier totals.

For Sunday, rain showers and scattered thunderstorms look to continue into early afternoon as additional waves of low pressure move over the region. The rain activity is expected to decrease in coverage across the area Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening as drier air spreads in from the north. The probability for rain will be near 60 percent Sunday morning, decreasing to 30 percent Sunday afternoon. Mostly cloudy and dry weather is forecast Sunday night. Rain amounts on Sunday are predicted to generally average around a quarter inch.

Cumulative rainfall totals from the National Weather Service for the period through daybreak Monday call are forecast to be between 1 and 1.5 inches across the Hill Country, and between 1 and 3 inches for most other locations.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Friday through 7 pm Sunday:

rain4cast03015

The outlook for next week calls for mostly sunny and slightly cooler weather Monday and Tuesday, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. A chance for showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast Wednesday and Thursday. Rain amounts over the two days are forecast to average between a quarter and a half inch.

Bob

 

Previous Blog Entries

A Wet and Unsettled Weather Pattern Forecast Friday through Sunday

Thursday, March 14, 2024 1:16 PM

Key Messages

  • There will be a very low-end threat for the development of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across the eastern Hill Country and the northern counties of Central Texas (including Austin) late Thursday afternoon and evening.
  • Friday afternoon through Friday night will bring a greater potential for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms to the entire region. Primary severe weather threats will be large to very large hail and damaging winds.
  • Some of Friday’s storms could produce locally heavy rainfall, with high rainfall rates and the potential for isolated flash flooding.
  • There is high confidence for periods of widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms across the region Saturday through Sunday. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible.
  • Total rainfall between Thursday and Sunday is forecast to average close to 2 inches for the area from eastern Hill Country to the middle Texas coast. Isolated higher totals will be possible.

 

Discussion

An active weather pattern is coming together that will offer up several opportunities for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms late Thursday afternoon through late Sunday.

Thursday will feature a mostly cloudy to overcast sky as clouds and moisture spread into Texas off the Gulf and the eastern Pacific. Today, forecasters will be closely monitoring progress of the dry line as it pushes east out of West Texas. Predictions call for the dry line to reach a location across the western or central Hill Country by late afternoon. The atmosphere will be primed for thunderstorms to develop along the boundary this afternoon. However, a strong stable layer in place in the lower atmosphere is expected to limit the development of thunderstorms along and east of the dry line. There will be slight (20 percent) chance a couple of isolated thunderstorms could break through the cap and develop somewhere across the northern Hill Country and possibly as far east as the Austin area. Should any thunderstorms happen to develop, they are expected to quickly become severe. The primary severe weather threats will be large hail and damaging downburst winds. There will be a 30 percent chance for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region late Thursday evening through daybreak Friday.

For Friday, scattered rain showers are forecast to develop and spread north across the area throughout the morning. By afternoon, there will be an increasing chance for widespread rain showers and scattered thunderstorms across northern and central Hill Country along with the Austin/Central Texas region as a weak cold front slowly sags south out of North Texas. Atmospheric conditions ahead of the front are forecast to be favorable for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms across the region, but especially across Central Texas. The Strom Prediction Center has placed all of Central Texas, including Austin, under a Slight Risk (a 2 out of 5 risk) for severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday evening. The remainder of the region has been placed under a 1 out of 5 risk. Severe weather threats will mainly be large to very large hail and damaging winds. However, an isolated tornado or two cannot be completely ruled out.

severe0314

Friday night, the focus for moderate to heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms is expected to shift to the southern half of Central Texas and the middle Texas coast as the weak cold front continues to sag south.

Rainfall Friday through Friday night is forecast to generally average between 0.5 and 1 inch, with isolated totals to near 2 inches possible

A cloudy and wet pattern is forecast to continue Saturday through Sunday as additional waves of low pressure spread north out of Mexico. The first of these waves is forecast to arrive Saturday morning and is expected to cause the development of widespread rain showers and scattered thunderstorms across the region The activity is predicted to continue off and on Saturday afternoon through about midday Sunday. The probability for rain through the period will be around 70 percent. Rain amounts Saturday through Sunday are forecast to generally average around 1 inch, with isolated totals to near 2 inches possible.

The chance for rain is forecast to decrease Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening as drier and slightly cooler air spreads south behind a weak cold front.

The National Weather Service’s rainfall forecast for the period between Thursday and Sunday calls for widespread totals of around 1.5 to 2 inches for the eastern Hill Country, all of Central Texas, and the middle Texas coast. Slightly lower totals are forecast for the western and central Hill Country. Isolated totals to near 4 inches will be possible.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 am Tuesday:

rain4cast03014

Looking out into next week, mostly cloudy and dry weather is forecast Monday.  There looks to be a slight chance for rain next Tuesday, followed a better chance for rain next Wednesday into Thursday.

Bob

 

 

Periods of Rain and Thunderstorms Expected Thursday through Sunday

Tuesday, March 12, 2024 3:53 PM

The recent development of southerly winds off the Gulf has brought the return of warm and more humid weather. Weather conditions will be mostly sunny, breezy, and warm Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures are forecast to generally be in the mid and upper 70s. Expect a southerly breeze at 10-15 mph.

The sky is forecast to become cloudy Tuesday evening and Tuesday night as low-level moisture increases off the Gulf. Some patchy drizzle will be possible after midnight Tuesday night, continuing through late Wednesday morning.  Lows Wednesday morning are forecast to be in the low and mid-60s. The clouds should burn off around midday, with the sky becoming partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon. Wednesday will likely be the warmest day of the week, with the temperature reaching the low and mid-80s. A southerly breeze at 10-15 mph looks to continue.

Cloudy, breezy, and warm weather will continue Wednesday night. Lows Thursday morning are forecast to be in the mid and upper 60s.

A cloudy, unsettled, and potentially stormy weather pattern is forecast to take shape across our region Thursday into Thursday evening as a trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere over the northern Rockies sinks south into the Southwestern U.S., then stalling over the area through the weekend. Winds flowing around the trough are expected to pull smaller waves of low pressure across Mexico and Texas beginning Thursday and continuing through weekend.

Thursday is shaping up to be the primary day of concern for potentially strong to severe thunderstorms as the first of the small waves of low pressure is forecast to move across Texas. The atmosphere over the central and eastern half of the state is forecast to become increasingly unstable ahead of the approaching trough. At the same time, the dry line is forecast to push east out of West Texas Thursday afternoon. Forecast solutions do indicate a stable layer, or cap, in the lower atmosphere will help to limit the develop of widespread thunderstorms across the western and central Hill Country. However, the forecast solutions call for the cap to weaken across the eastern Hill Country and the northern half of Central Texas, including the Austin metro, Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. This will allow for the development of scattered thunderstorms, with some of the thunderstorms possibly becoming strong to severe. The primary severe threat will be large hail, followed by damaging downburst winds.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area from just north of Austin, north to Waco and the DFW metroplex under Slight Risk, or 2 out of 5 risk, for severe thunderstorms through Thursday evening. A Marginal Risk (a 1 out of 5 risk) extends across the area from San Saba, to Llano, Austin, and Giddings. Across the rest of the region, the threat for severe storms appears low.

severe0312

For Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening, the probability for scattered rain and thunderstorms for the western and central Hill Country is forecast to be near 30 percent. For the eastern Hill Country and the Austin/Central Texas area the probability for rain and storms is forecast to be near 50 percent. The probability for rain across the coastal plains is forecast to be near 20 percent.

Periods of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast for the entire region between Thursday night and Sunday afternoon as additional waves of low pressure continue to move over the area out of Mexico. The threat for severe storms during this time will be low. The probability for rain will be near 50-60 percent. Expect a mostly cloudy sky Friday through Sunday. A weak cold front is forecast to push south across the Friday, bringing slightly cooler air for the weekend.

Daily rain amounts between Thursday and Sunday are forecast to generally average between a quarter and a half inch. Some isolated heavier downpours will be possible—especially for locations located along and east of I-35. Rain amounts through Sunday are forecast to total between 0.5 and 1 inch across the western and central Hill Country, between 1 and 1.5 inches across Central Texas, and between 0.5 and 1 inch across the middle Texas coast.

NWS Total Rain Forecast, Valid through 7 pm Sunday:

rain4cast03012

Weekend temperatures are forecast to rend a little cooler behind the cold front with highs in the mid and upper 60s. Lows are predicted to be in the 40s across the Hill Country, the 50s across Central Texas, with low 60s near the coast.

For next week, weather conditions are shaping up to be partly cloudy, dry, and mild Monday through Wednesday. A chance for rain showers is forecast next Thursday into Friday as a trough of low pressure dips south out of the southern Plains. A cold front Monday is expected to bring a push of slightly cooler air that remain in place through Wednesday.

High temperatures Monday through Wednesday are forecast to generally be in the mid-60s. Lows will include the low 40s across the Hill Country, the mid-40s across Central Texas, and the low 50s across the coastal plains. Warmer temperatures will return for next Thursday and Friday.

 

Bob

Much Cooler this Weekend. Trending Mild Again Next Week

Friday, March 8, 2024 2:25 PM

A line of rain showers and thunderstorms spread east across the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor late Thursday night into early Friday morning. Several of the storms produced small hail and gusty winds with speeds up to 40 mph. Rain from the line of storms varied between just a few hundredths to nearly three quarters of an inch. LCRA’s highest gauged total was 1.17 inches at a gauge located out in the western Hill County, just south of Sonora. The line of storms weakened considerably as they moved past the I-35 corridor. LCRA’s Hydromet showed totals between Bastrop and Bay City averaging just a few hundredths of an inch. A slight chance for scattered rain showers will continue for the area south of Interstate 10 through early Friday afternoon, but no significant rain is forecast.

  • Friday morning’s rain ended a near month-long dry spell across the region. The last significant rain for most areas was on February 10th.

Dry and mild air will spread across the region Friday afternoon in the wake of Thursday night’s storms. It will be a warm day, with temperatures in the 70s to the low 80s. Expect a northwesterly wind at 10-15 mph.

Much cooler air is poised to spread south across our area Friday evening and Friday night. A Canadian cold front currently situated across Northwest Texas is forecast to push southeast, reaching the northern Hill Country around sunset, the Austin and Central Texas area Friday evening, and the coastal area by midnight. No rain is forecast along the front. Breezy to windy conditions look to develop Friday evening and continue Friday night. Expect northerly winds at 10-20 mph and gusts to 35 mph. Noticeably cooler conditions will develop Friday evening and Friday night.

  • Lows Saturday morning are forecast to be near 38-42 degrees across the Hill Country, in the mid-40s across Central Texas, and around 50 degrees across the coastal area.

A much chillier weekend is store for the region in the wake of Friday’s cold front. A partly cloudy to mostly sunny sky is forecast Saturday through Sunday. However, breezy north winds with gusts to 35 mph will continue through Saturday afternoon, making it feel quite chilly.  Wind speeds should decrease to 10-15 mph Saturday evening and 5-10 mph on Sunday.

  • High temperatures Saturday and Sunday are predicted to be in the low 60s.
  • Lows Sunday morning will include the mid and upper 30s across the Hill Country, the low 40s across Central Texas, and mid-40s across the coastal plains.
  • Lows Monday morning are forecast to be near 40 degrees across the Hill Country, the low 40s across Central Texas, with mid-40s towards the coast.

Mostly sunny and warmer weather is predicted for the first half of next week as southerly breezes return. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low 70s Monday, the mid-70s, Tuesday, and the low 80s Wednesday. Lows Tuesday through Thursday mornings look to be in the 50s to low 60s.

 

Forecasts point to the development of a wet and unsettled weather pattern late next week as a strong trough of low pressure approaches our region from northern Mexico. The forecast solutions call for an area of showers and thunderstorms to push east out of West Texas Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. There are early indications some of these storms may be strong to severe. Additional rain is forecast Friday and possibly into next Saturday when a Canadian cold front sinks south through our area. There is still much model uncertainty on the timing and movement of the low pressure trough.

An early look at potential rainfall for late next week calls for the highest totals to occur across the eastern half of Texas, with lower amounts out to the west. This forecast will likely change over the next few days as the forecast models get a better handle on the developing weather situation.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Wednesday through 7 pm Friday:

rain4cast0308

Slightly cooler weather looks to follow next weekend, with highs in the 60s to low 70s, and lows in the 40s to low 50s.

 

Time Change Weekend

 

A Reminder Daylight Saving Time will begin this Sunday, March 10th at 2 am local time. At that time, our clocks will need to “spring forward” one hour. Sunrise and sunset will be about 1 hour later on Mar 10, 2024 than the day before.

Have a great weekend!

Bob

 

 

A Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Late Thursday Night

Thursday, March 7, 2024 3:20 PM

We’re looking at the potential for some active and potentially severe storms across the northern Hill Country, possibly extending as far south and east as the Austin area, this afternoon and again late tonight into early Friday morning.

As of midday Thursday, Doppler radar showed a few scattered thunderstorms tracking northeast across the Hill Country, between Junction, Mason, and Brady. Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms were occurring to the west and northwest of Austin.

Today’s activity is being generated by a small wave of low pressure moving northeast out of West Texas. High resolution forecasts call for additional scattered showers and thunderstorm to develop across the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor this afternoon as the wave of low pressure lifts to the northeast. The probability for rain will range from around 70 percent across the northern half of the Hill Country, to around 30 percent along the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor, to just 20 percent in the La Grange/Columbus area.

Due to the way today’s atmosphere is structured, there will be a low-end chance for some of this afternoon’s thunderstorms to become strong to severe. The greatest severe weather threat will be large hail. The chance for rain and storms is expected to decrease beginning late this afternoon as the wave of low pressure exits to the northeast.

The main focus for potentially strong to severe thunderstorms this period is forecast to take place late Thursday night, generally after 2 am. This is when a Pacific cold front is predicted to push east out of West Texas. Forecasts call for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop along the cold front as it marches to the east. The front is forecast to move across the Hill County roughly between 2 am and 6 am, the Austin/I-35 corridor between 6 am and 8 am, and the area east of Austin between 8 am and noon.

Some of these storms will have the potential to become strong to severe. The highest threat for severe storms is forecast to be mainly across the northern and central Hill Country, where the Strom Prediction Center and has placed this area under a Slight Risk (or 2 out of 5 risk) for severe storms through sunrise Friday. A Marginal Risk (or 1 out of 5 risk) for severe thunderstorms extends as far southeast as Bandera, Austin, and Rockdale. To the southeast of Austin, the threat for severe storms is expected to be quite low. The greatest severe weather threats will be large hail and damaging winds.

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Rainfall from the scattered showers and thunderstorms today and tonight is forecast to stay under a quarter inch. Isolated totals to around a half inch will be possible.

The chance for rain will end from west to east Friday morning as drier air spreads in behind the cold front. The sky should become mostly sunny by the afternoon. A Canadian cold front is forecast to sweep southeast across the area Friday evening, bringing much cooler air and breezy conditions that will extend through Saturday. Sunny weather is predicted for both days. Expect northwesterly winds with speeds of 10-20 mph and gusts to 30 mph Friday night through Saturday afternoon.

  • Lows Saturday morning are forecast to be near 38-40 degrees across the Hill Country, in the mid-40s across Central Texas, and near 50 degrees across the coastal plains.
  • High temperatures Saturday and Sunday are predicted to be in the low and mid-60s.
  • Lows Sunday and Monday mornings will range from the upper 30s across the Hill Country, to the mid-40s towards the coast.

Bob

 

Warm Temperatures this Week. A Chance for Rain Thursday into Early Friday

Monday, March 4, 2024 3:50 PM

We’re looking at warm, spring-like weather across the region this week. There will be a two opportunities for rain and scattered thunderstorms, but total rain amounts are expected to be low—around a quarter inch or less.

The first opportunity for rain is predicted for late Monday afternoon and Monday evening when a weak wave of low pressure tracks into South Texas out of northern Mexico. Although plenty of low-level moisture is in place, a capping stable layer in the lower atmosphere is expected to keep the development of showers and thunderstorms to a minimum. The most favorable area for rain development is expected to be for areas located south of Interstate 10. Here, the chance for rain through late evening will be near 30 percent. For the rest of the region, then chance for rain will only be near 20 percent.

Should any thunderstorms happen to develop this afternoon and evening, there will be a slight chance some of the storms could become severe. The Strom Prediction Center has placed the northern Hill Country and the northern counties of Central Texas under a Marginal Risk (a 1 out of 5 risk) for severe thunderstorms through Monday evening.

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Rain amounts, if any, are forecast to average less than a quarter inch. Monday’s weather will be partly to mostly and warm with high temperatures around 80-82 degrees. The chance for rain will diminish late Monday evening when the trough of low pressure exits to the east.

Tuesday’s weather will feature widespread low clouds and patchy fog for areas along and east of Interstate 35 through about mid-morning. A sunny sky is forecast late morning through afternoon. Tuesday is shaping up to be the warmest day of the week for the Hill Country and Interstate 35 corridor as the dry line pushes east, bringing in drier and warmer air. High temperatures here are predicted to be close to 90 degrees! For the rest of the region, expect high temperatures in the mid-80s.

Wednesday’s weather is predicted to be partly cloudy and warm. A weak cold front is forecast to sink south across the area Wednesday morning and stall close to Interstate 10 Wednesday afternoon. No rain is forecast with the cold front. High temperatures Wednesday will include the upper 70s across the northern Hill Country and the low 80s at most other locations.

A period of somewhat unsettled weather is forecast to unfold beginning late Wednesday night when a couple of waves of low pressure push east out of the Desert Southwest. As these two waves of low pressure move into Texas, they may spark the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region beginning late Wednesday night, continuing Thursday and Thursday night. There are early indication some of the thunderstorms may be strong to severe—mainly across the northern half of the region (including the Austin metro). The probability for rain Thursday and Thursday night will be near 40-50 percent. A chance for rain is forecast to continue Friday morning, with the chance for rain then diminishing from west to east behind a Canadian cold front.

Rain amounts Thursday through Friday morning are forecast to average less than a quarter inch across the Hill Country, and between a quarter and a half inch at most other locations.

The front is expect to cause breezy north winds of 10-20 mph with occasional higher gusts Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. The gusty winds should diminish Saturday night. The sky looks to clear Friday afternoon, with mostly sunny and cooler weather forecast for the weekend.

  • High temperatures Friday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 70s.
  • Lows Saturday morning will include the low and mid-40s across the Hill Country, the mid and upper 40s across Central Texas, with low 50s across the coastal plains.
  • High temperatures Saturday and Sunday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 60s.
  • Lows Sunday morning will range from the upper 30s to 40 degrees across the Hill Country, to the mid-40s across the coastal plains.

Next Week

Dry and mild weather is forecast the first half of next week. High temperatures in the low 70s Monday, should warm to the upper 70s by Wednesday. Lows will be in the 50s.

Forecasts point to a slight chance to chance for scattered rain showers next Thursday through Saturday as a trough of low pressure sinks southeast out of the southern Rockies. Rain amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches are currently forecast. High temperatures late week are forecast to be in the 70s, with lows in the 50s.

Time Change Weekend is Coming Up

Daylight saving time will begin for 2024 on Sunday, March 10th at 2 am local time. At that time, our clocks will “spring forward” one hour. Sunrise and sunset will be about 1 hour later on Mar 10, 2024 than the day before.

Bob

Warmer this Weekend. Small Chances for Rain through Much of Next Week

Friday, March 1, 2024 3:07 PM

Friday started off rather chilly across the area—especially across the Hill Country where the sky cleared, allowing the temperature to fall to the upper 20s to mid-30s. According to LCRA’s Hydromet, the lowest recorded temperature was 27 degrees at several gauges located between Junction and Mason. Lows across Central Texas were generally in the mid-40s, while the coastal area saw readings reaching the upper 40s to low 50s.

After a couple of cloudy, cool days, we’re now looking at the return of sunshine and warmer weather for Friday and the weekend. Forecasts call for a stable ridge of high pressure over northern Mexico to spread east across Texas this weekend, which is expected to produce mostly sunny and dry weather pattern.

Light northeasterly breezes Friday afternoon are forecast to become southerly Friday night and through the weekend. Due to this moist flow off the Gulf, forecasts call for the development of widespread low clouds across the area late Friday night through about mid-morning Saturday. A similar pattern of late night and morning low clouds is forecast Saturday night into Sunday morning and also Sunday night into Monday morning.

The combination of sunshine and southerly breezes will bring a return spring-like temperatures this weekend.

  • High temperatures Friday are forecast to generally be in the low and mid-70s.
  • Lows Saturday morning are predicted to be close to 50 degrees.
  • High temperatures Saturday are forecast to be near 80-82 degrees.
  • Lows Sunday morning will be in the mid-50s across the Hill Country, and near 60 degrees at most other locations.
  • High temperatures Sunday are forecast to be near 80-82 degrees.
  • Lows Monday morning will be in the low 60s.

Next Week

Forecasts call for a slight change in the weather pattern next week as a series of weak low pressure troughs track east across the southern Plains states. The first of these troughs is predicted to push east across North Texas/southern Oklahoma Monday afternoon into Monday night. This system is expected to cause the development of scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms beginning Monday afternoon, continuing through Monday evening. The most favorable for area for rain is expected to be for areas along and to the east of Interstate 35. The probability for rain will range from 20-30 percent across the Hill Country, to around 40 percent across Central Texas and near 50 percent across the coastal plains. A couple of strong thunderstorms will not be out of the question. The chance for rain is forecast to end by midnight Monday night.

Rain amounts Monday through Monday evening at best are forecast to only average around a quarter inch.

Partly cloudy and dry weather is forecast Tuesday in the wake of the departing upper trough.

Forecasts call for a 30-40 percent chance for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms beginning Wednesday afternoon, continuing through next Friday as additional waves of low pressure push east across the southern Plains. The most favorable period for rain looks to occur Friday afternoon and Friday night ahead of Pacific cold front. Dry and slightly cooler weather is predicted in the wake of the front next weekend.

Rain amounts between Wednesday afternoon and Friday night are forecast to average around a quarter inch. Some isolated heavier totals will be possible.

NWS Seven-Day Rainfall Forecast, Valid through 6 pm Next Friday:

rain4cast0301

Mild temperatures are forecast next week, with highs in the 70s to low 80s. Lows are forecast to the 60s. Slightly cooler weather is forecast next weekend, with highs in the 60s and lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Looking out into the week of March 11th, mild spring-like temperatures look to continue.

February Climate

February’s climate was characterized by much warmer than normal temperatures and slightly below normal rainfall. Temperatures generally averaged between 4 and 6 degrees above normal! In Austin, Camp Mabry’s average temperature of 60.7 degrees ranked as the 7th warmest February on record dating back to 1897.

February rainfall for most areas was generally around 0.5 to 1 inch below normal. For Austin-Camp Mabry, February 2024 was the 35th driest February on record.

Have a good weekend.

Bob

A Cooldown Will Arrive Wednesday. Warm Weather Returning for the Weekend

Monday, February 26, 2024 3:48 PM

It seems our weather will be going out of winter and directly to summer today and Tuesday as temperatures are forecast to warm into the 90s across the Hill Country and parts of Central Texas. Monday’s weather maps showed a broad ridge of high pressure covering Mexico and Texas, creating a very stable weather pattern. At the surface, the dry line will be pushing east across the Hill Country, bringing in dry and warm air. In additions, surface winds are expected to have a southwesterly, down sloping component to them, which should help give the temperature a boost. The result is expected to be summer-like readings for the Hill Country and parts of Central Texas.

  • High temperatures Monday are forecast to be in the low to mid-90s across the Hill Country, in the upper 80s to 90 degrees along the Interstate 35 corridor, and be near 80-82 degrees across the eastern counties of Central Texas and the middle Texas coast.
  • Lows Tuesday morning are predicted to be in the mid-60s.

Expect a south-southwesterly breeze at 10-15 mph, with occasional gusts to 25 mph Monday afternoon and Monday night.

Tuesday is forecast to have somewhat similar weather conditions as that of Monday. However, widespread low clouds developing Monday night are expected to be slower to burn off Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. In fact, a partly to mostly cloudy sky is expected for Tuesday afternoon. Breezy south winds of 10-15 mph are forecast Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening.

  • Tuesday’s high temperature is predicted to be near 90 degrees across the Hill Country, near 88-90 degrees along the I-35 corridor, and be close to 80-82 degrees elsewhere.
  • Lows Wednesday morning will range from the upper 40s across the Hill Country, to the mid and upper 50s across Central Texas, to the mid-60s across the coastal plains.

A change in the weather looks to take place Wednesday as a Canadian cold front pushes south through the area Wednesday morning, bringing cooler air. No rain is expected with the front, although clouds do look to hold in place throughout the day.  Strong winds are forecast to develop behind the front Wednesday through Wednesday night. Expect northerly winds at 20-25 mph, with some occasional gusts as high as 45 mph. The temperature will trend noticeably cooler behind the cold front!

  • High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be in the mid-50s across the Hill Country, in the low 60s across Central Texas, and in the low 70s across the coastal plains.
  • Lows Thursday and Friday mornings will include the upper 30s to low 40s across the Hill Country, the low 40s across Central Texas, and the mid and upper 40s across the coastal plains.

Cloudy and cool conditions are forecast Thursday as a wave of low pressure begins to push east out of West Texas. This feature is forecast to generate a few light rain showers across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions beginning late Wednesday night, continuing through Thursday afternoon. Rain amounts are forecast to be low—generally around a tenth of an inch or less.

Clouds will decrease Thursday night into Friday morning as the wave of low pressure exits to the east. Forecasts call for another weak ridge of high pressure to spread across Texas Friday and through the weekend. Expect mostly sunny and warmer weather through the period.

High temperatures in the low 70s Friday are forecast to warm close to 80 degrees Saturday and Sunday. Low temperatures are forecast to Saturday and Sunday mornings are forecast to be in the 50s to near 60 degrees.

Next Week

Forecasts call for clouds to increase late Sunday into Monday as another trough begins to approach our area from the west. This trough is forecast to cause the development of scattered rain showers and possibly a couple of isolated thunderstorms across the area Monday afternoon into Tuesday. As of now, rain amounts are forecast to remain below a half inch.

Dry weather is forecast next Wednesday. Another chance for rain is forecast next Thursday into Friday when another trough of low pressure spreads in from the west.

Temperatures next week are shaping up to be mild, with highs in the 70s, and lows in the 50s.

Have a good week.

Bob

 

Sunny and Spring-Like through the Middle of Next Week. A Chance For Rain Developing Thursday

Friday, February 23, 2024 2:36 PM

Thursday was the warmest day so far this year for the Hill Country and a large part of Central Texas as dry and very warm air developed behind the dry line. Readings generally topped out in the mid and upper 80s. It’s hard to believe it is the month of February. The average temperature so far this month is generally running between 2 and 4 degrees above normal. Month to date at Austin-Camp Mabry, it is the 13th warmest February on record.

A quiet and mild weather pattern continues across Texas as the jet stream and storm track remain well up to our north. High pressure in the upper atmosphere is expected to cause a sunny sky this afternoon through Sunday. A weak cold front moved across our area Thursday night, bringing in some slightly cooler air that will last into Saturday. Even with the cold front, readings are still predicted to stay well above normal for late February. Expect northerly winds with speeds of 10-15 mph Friday afternoon. Wind speeds look to decrease to 5-10 mph Friday night and Saturday. Breezy and warmer weather is forecast for Sunday. Expect southerly winds with speeds of 10-20 mph, and gusts to 35 mph.

  • High temperatures Friday are forecast to be in the mid-70s.
  • Lows Saturday morning will be in the mid and upper 40s.
  • High temperatures Saturday are predicted to be in the upper 70s.
  • Lows Sunday morning will be in the low 50s.
  • High temperatures Sunday are forecast to be in the low and mid-80s across the Hill Country and Central Texas, and in the upper 70s across the coastal region.
  • Lows Monday morning are forecast to be close to 60 degrees.

Looking at next week’s weather, breezy and unseasonably warm conditions are forecast Monday through Tuesday. The sky will be mostly sunny on Monday, but turn partly to mostly cloudy Tuesday. Wind speeds of 10-20 mph are forecast both days.

  • High temperatures Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 80s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and be around 78-80 degrees across the coastal plains.
  • Lows Tuesday and Wednesday mornings are forecast to be in the low and mid-60s.

Forecasts call for a Pacific cold front to push south across our area on Wednesday, bringing with it some slightly cooler air. No rain is predicted along the front.

  • Wednesday’s high temperature will range from the upper 60s across the Hill Country, to the upper 70s near the coast.
  • Lows Thursday morning will include the low and mid-40s across the Hill Country, the mid-40s across Central Texas, and the low 50s coastal area.

There will be a 30-40 percent chance for the development of some scattered light rain showers across the area beginning Wednesday night, continuing through Friday morning due to a trough of low pressure holding back across the Desert Southwest. The rain is forecast to be light, with most totals staying below a quarter inch. The chance for rain should diminish Friday afternoon as the trough finally exits to the northeast.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 6 pm Friday through 6 pm Next Friday:

rain4cast0223

  • High temperatures next Thursday and Friday are forecast to be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Dry and warm weather is forecast next weekend, with high temperatures in the 70s.

Looking out into the week of March 4th, long-range forecasts do suggest a chance for rain developing the first half of the week as the next trough and cold front move across Texas. Mild temperatures will continue, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s to low 50s.

Full Moon Friday Night

The February full moon, or snow moon,  will occur Friday night. Look for the bright, round full moon ascending in the east shortly after sunset, as twilight darkens It will glow high in the south near midnight and drop low in the west shortly before sunrise on February 24.

The February full moon is considered a micromoon. It will be 2024’s farthest – and only – full micromoon this year. At apogee, its distance will be 252,225 miles (405,917 km). That’s in contrast to the average distance between the Earth and moon, 238,900 miles (384,472 km). A full micromoon can appear about 14% smaller than a full moon supermoon, but its size difference is tough to see with the eye.

Have  good weekend!

Bob

Sunny, Dry, and Mild Weather Conditions Expected All Week

Monday, February 19, 2024 4:04 PM

In the wake of Friday’s cold front, weekend temperatures turned significantly colder. Highs were generally in the 40s and 50s, with lows in the 20s and 30s. The temperature fell to or below freezing across most the region Sunday morning. Lows included the low, mid, and upper 20s across the Hill Country, the low 30s across Central Texas, and the mid to upper 30s across the coastal plains. According to LCRA’s Hydromet, the lowest observed temperature was 18 degrees at a gauge located southeast of Abilene, in Callahan County. A light freeze occurred across parts of the Hill Country and Central Texas early Monday morning, but most areas stayed above freezing.

The chilly temperatures we saw over the weekend will be the last of winter’s cold we will see for a good while. Significantly milder, spring-like temperatures are forecast to develop this week and continue through late next week.

A sunny and dry weather pattern is forecast to take hold across Texas for the next several days as a stable ridge of high pressure spreads east out of Mexico. The cold dome of Canadian high pressure which spread south across Texas over the weekend has now shifted east to the Mississippi Valley. Southerly breezes have returned to the area along with warmer temperatures. The temperature is predicted to trend progressively warmer Tuesday through Thursday as southerly breezes pull warm air north from the Gulf. Low clouds and some patchy fog will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Otherwise, the sky will be mostly sunny throughout the week.

Breezy conditions are forecast to develop Wednesday and Thursday. Expect southerly winds at 10-20 mph, with occasional gusts to 30 mph.

  • Monday’s high temperature is forecast to be around 68-70 degrees, with mid-60s towards the coast.
  • Lows Tuesday morning will range from the low 40s west, to the upper 40s near the coast.
  • High temperatures Tuesday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 70s.
  • Lows Wednesday morning will include the low and mid-50s across the Hill Country, with upper 50s at most other locations.
  • Lows Thursday morning are forecast to be near 58-60 degrees.
  • High temperatures Thursday are predicted to be around 80-82 degrees.

A Pacific cold front is forecast to slide south across Texas Thursday afternoon and evening, bringing just slightly cooler temperatures for Friday and the weekend. No rain is expected with the cold front. High temperatures Friday are predicted to be in the low 70s, warming to the mid-70s Saturday and the upper 70s Sunday. Lows throughout the period are forecast to be in the 50s.

Looking ahead to next week, dry and mild weather conditions are forecast to continue as the storm track and the jet stream are predicted to remain well to the north of Texas. Long-range forecast solutions don’t indicate any strong cold fronts on the horizon. Also of note, our region is currently in the grips of a dry weather. And the latest outlook for March does not looking very promising for the development of significant rain. The next chance for rain looks to occur sometime around March 3rd or 4th.

Have a good week.

Bob