​

 

Although the weather pattern is very active across the U.S., with several active storm systems, the impacts to Central and South Texas are expected to be minimal.  Our region will see a developing chance for rain showers and a few thunderstorms beginning Thursday, continuing through early Saturday afternoon.  However, neither severe storms nor heavy rain is anticipated.  The temperature will remain above freezing through the Sunday.  But do note parts of the western and northern Hill Country could see a light freeze Monday morning.

Temperatures have trended noticeably cooler across the area today in the wake of Tuesday night's cold front.  Our attention now turns out to the West Coast where a large trough of low pressure is tracking southeast along the California coast.  A southwesterly flow out ahead of the trough will pull considerable middle and high-level clouds across Texas this afternoon and tonight, resulting in a mostly cloudy to overcast sky.  No rain is forecast this afternoon or evening.  However, scattered light rain showers and drizzle are forecast to develop across the region after midnight.  Today's high temperature will range from the low 50s across the northern Hill Country to the mid-60s towards the coast.  Lows Thursday morning will include the low and middle 40s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and mid and upper 50s towards the coast.

Thanksgiving Day weather is shaping up to be cloudy as moisture continues to spread north from the Gulf and the Pacific.  There will be a 30-40 percent chance for occasional light rain showers throughout the day, but rain amounts should generally only average a few hundredths of an inch.  A total rainout is not anticipated.  High temperatures Thursday will include the upper 50s across the Hill Country and the low 60s across Central Texas.  Readings look to reach the low and mid-70s across the coastal plains where today's cold front will begin moving back to the north.

Scattered, mostly light rain showers are forecast to increase in areal coverage across the area Thursday night and continue into Friday afternoon when a trough of low pressure begins pushing into Texas out of northern Mexico.   A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Friday, but the main thunderstorm coverage should be across North Texas and Oklahoma.  The probability for rain will be near 50 percent.  Rain amounts Thursday night through Friday afternoon are forecast to generally average around a quarter inch.  Lows Friday morning will be near 50 degrees across the Hill Country, the mid-50s across Central Texas and the mid-60s towards the coast.  High temperatures Friday will range from the low 70s west to the upper 70s near the coast.

Another period of rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast late Friday night into Saturday afternoon when the West Coast trough moves to the central Plains states, forcing a Pacific cold front to move across Texas.  A broken line of rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast to develop along and just behind the cold front.  The front is forecast to reach the western Hill Country late Friday night or around sunrise Saturday morning.  The front should move across Central Texas about mid-morning Saturday and the coastal plains region in the early to mid-afternoon.  Atmospheric conditions don't appear favorable for the development of strong or severe thunderstorms.  The rain is predicted to end and clouds clear from west to east Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon as drier air spreads in behind the Pacific cold front.  Rain amounts with the front are forecast to only average around a quarter inch.  High temperatures Saturday will range from the low 70s west to the upper 70s near the coast.

Cooler temperatures will develop late Saturday night into Sunday morning when a Canadian cold front pushes south through the area.  Sunny, breezy and cooler weather are forecast region-wide on Sunday.  Lows Sunday morning will range from the low 40s west to the low 50s towards the coast.  High temperatures Sunday will be in the low and mid-60s.  Lows Monday morning will include the low and mid-30s across the Hill Country, the upper 30s across Central Texas and the low 40s coastal plains.

The outlook for next week calls for sunny, dry and mild weather Monday through Thursday.  High temperatures will in the low 60s Monday, warming to around 70-72 degrees for the remainder of the week.  Low temperatures will generally be in the low and mid-50s.

Long-range forecast data calls for an increasing chance for rain and thunderstorms across the region next Thursday night and Friday when a trough of Pacific trough of low pressure moves east across Texas.  There is considerable uncertainty as to how this system will evolve, but current indications are this system will have the potential to bring significant rain to much of our area.  Stay tuned for further details.

Tropical Weather Outlook

The tropical Atlantic is very quiet as a winter jet stream pattern begins to envelop the basin.

With the demise of Tropical Storm Sebastien on November 24, we've likely seen the end of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season.  The final tally shows 18 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index of 129.8.  The 1981 – 2010 averages for these quantities were 12.1 named storms, 6.4 hurricanes, 2.7 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index of 106, according to data from Colorado State University.  It turns out 2019 was near or above average in all categories.

 
Preliminary tracking map for the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. The track for Tropical Storm Sebastien is not yet available. Courtesy: National Hurricane Center.

Tropical cyclone development is not forecast.  The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season officially draws to a close on Saturday.

I hope everyone has a safe and happy Thanksgiving!

Bob

​

Although the weather is currently quiet, numerous weather changes are forecast this week as a series of cold fronts move through the area, with Gulf moisture surging inland ahead of each front.  Fortunately, there won't be any arctic air involved with this week's fronts, so for folks leaving town for the week, no freezes are expected.

Tonight, a southerly wind flow will continue, bringing clouds and moisture inland all the way up through the Hill Country.  South winds at 10-15 mph are forecast.  Lows Tuesday morning will be considerably warmer, ranging from the upper 50s across the Hill Country to the mid-60s near the coast.  

A mostly cloudy to overcast sky is forecast across the region Tuesday as considerable Gulf moisture is pulled north into Texas by a trough of low pressure lifting northeast out of New Mexico.  Breezy south winds at 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph look to continue.  High temperatures Tuesday will be near 78-80 degrees.   

A cold front is predicted to sweep south across our region Tuesday night.  There will be a slight chance for a few light rain showers for areas along and east of Interstate 35 after midnight.  Rain amounts, if any, should be very light.  Lows Wednesday morning will range from the low and mid-40s across the Hill Country to around 48-50 degrees across Central Texas to the mid and upper 50s near the coast.

In the wake of the Tuesday night's cold front, Wednesday's weather is shaping up to be noticeably cooler.  The sky is expected remain mostly cloudy as a weak overrunning pattern sets up.  Forecasts call for a large trough of low pressure to set up off the coast of California, with the circulation around the trough pulling warm up and over the cool air at the surface.  High temperatures will generally be in the mid-50s, with low to mid-60s expected towards the coast.  Lows Thursday morning will include the low and mid-40s across the Hill Country, the upper 40s central and the mid-50s towards the coast.

Clouds and periods of rain showers are forecast Wednesday night, continuing Thanksgiving Day, Friday and early Saturday as the California trough tracks northeast to the southern Plains.  While the strongest atmospheric lift is forecast to remain north of our region, conditions will still be unstable enough locally to cause occasional rain showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two.  The probability for rain will be near 40-50 percent Wednesday night through Friday night.

Rain amounts through the period are not expected to be all that heavy, with most totals generally in the range of 0.25 to 0.5 inches.  A few isolated totals to around an inch will be possible.

NWS rainfall forecast for the period 6 am Monday through 6 am next Monday:

 

• High temperatures Thanksgiving Day are predicted to be in the upper 60s, with mid-70s expected towards the coast.

• Lows Friday morning will range from the mid-50s west, to the low 60s central to the upper 60s near the coast.

• High temperatures Friday will be in the upper 70s.

• Lows Saturday morning will generally be around 60 degrees.

A Pacific cold front will sweep across the area after sunrise Saturday morning, bringing in slightly cooler air and ending the chance for rain.  The chance for rain should end from west to east Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon.  Clouds will also clear from west to east.  High temperatures will generally be in the upper 60s to low 70s, with upper 70s expected towards the coast.
 
A Canadian cold front will push through the region Saturday night, bringing cooler air for Sunday and the early part of next week.

• Lows Sunday morning will range from 38-40 degrees across the Hill Country to the mid-50s towards the coast.

• High temperatures Sunday will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

• Lows next Monday morning will range from the mid and upper 30s west to the mid-40s near the coast.

The outlook for next week calls for sunny and dry weather next Monday and Tuesday.  Highs in the low 60s Monday, will warm to the upper 60s on Tuesday.  Another cold front is forecast to sweep across the area next Tuesday night.  Little to no rain is expected with the front.  Dry and mild weather will follow for the remainder of the week, with highs around 70 degrees and lows in the 50s.

Tropical Weather Update

Tropical Storm Sebastien held together through Sunday afternoon, but degenerated into just a trough of low pressure Sunday evening.  The remnants of Sebastien brought gusty winds and rain to the Azores earlier this morning.  The National Hurricane Center has now stopped issuing advisories on Sebastien.

Weather conditions are quiet across the tropical Atlantic basin tropical cyclone development is not expected for at least the next 5 days. The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially comes to an end on November 30th.
 
Bob

 

​

A cold front moved across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions overnight, bringing noticeably cooler temperatures.  The cold front was moving across the coastal plains region as of midday, and it should push off the coast by late afternoon.  The front has produced very little rain across the region, with most totals averaging only a few hundredths of an inch.  A few spotty light showers will still be possible across the Hill Country and Central Texas region through about mid-afternoon, but no significant accumulations are expected.  Scattered rain showers look to continue across the coastal plains region through late afternoon, with most totals averaging only around a tenth of an inch.  Today's sky is forecast to stay cloudy across the entire region.  The temperature will hold fairly steady in the upper 40s to low 50s across the Hill County and stay in the middle 50s across Central Texas.  Readings across the coastal plains will fall from the upper 70s to the upper 50s by late afternoon.  Expect a north wind at 10-15 mph this afternoon, continuing overnight.

The low clouds are forecast to clear from west to east this evening and overnight as drier arrives behind the cold front.  However, scattered high clouds will likely continue overnight.  Lows Saturday morning will include the mid and upper 30s across the Hill Country, the upper 30s to low 40s across Central Texas and the mid-40s across the coastal plains.

A sunny, dry and mild weather pattern will take shape this weekend and Monday when a stable ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere spreads over Texas out of northern Mexico.  High temperatures in the mid and upper 60s Saturday, should warm to the low 70s Sunday and to around 78-80 degrees Monday.  Low temperatures Sunday morning will be in the upper 30s to low 40s, rising to around 50 degrees Monday morning and the upper 50s Tuesday morning.

Forecasts call for the ridge of high pressure over Texas to shift east Tuesday into Wednesday as a large trough of low pressure begins to develop along the West Coast.  Middle and high-level clouds will increase across our area Tuesday, causing a partly to mostly cloudy sky.  High temperatures Tuesday are predicted to be around 78-80 degrees.

Wednesday through Friday (including Thanksgiving Day), considerable moisture is forecast to spread north into Texas out of the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific.  This will result in a mostly cloudy sky through the period.  Passing light rain showers and a few isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop across our region Wednesday and continue through Friday as weak waves of low pressure rotate around the western trough and track northeast over Mexico and into Texas.  The probability for rain each day looks to be around 20 percent Wednesday and 30-40 percent on Thursday and Friday.  Total rain amounts through late Friday are forecast to generally average between 0.25 and 0.50 inches, with isolated totals to near 1 inch possible.

Thanksgiving Day is not shaping up to be a total washout, but do keep in mind there will likely be some passing showers from time to time.

A weak cold front is forecast to slowly spread south through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing slightly cooler air for Tuesday night and Wednesday.  High temperatures Wednesday will be in mid-60s.  Warmer temperatures are forecast Thanksgiving Day and next Friday, with highs being around 78-80 degrees.  Low temperatures will be in the upper 50s to 60 degrees.

Partly cloudy and warm weather is forecast the weekend following Thanksgiving as our region comes under the influence of a moderate flow off the Gulf of Mexico.  Daily high temperatures will be around 78-80 degrees, with low temperatures in the low and mid-60s.  There are indications a cold front will move across our area sometime around that Sunday night (December 1st), possibly producing some showers and thunderstorms.

Looking out into the first week of December, temperatures are forecast to be fairly mild, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s to low 50s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Storm Sebastien is still hanging on in the central Atlantic, but the storm is weakening now that it is beginning to merge with a cold front.  At 9 am CST, the center of Tropical Storm Sebastien was located about 695 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  Sebastien was moving toward the east-northeast near 15 mph.  An east-northeastward or northeastward motion at a similar forward speed is expected through the weekend.  Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph with higher gusts.  Continued gradual weakening is anticipated and Sebastien is forecast to dissipate by early next week.

RAMMB-CIRA 11/22/2019 12:10 pm CST

Weather conditions are quiet across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic and tropical cyclone development is not forecast.

Don't Miss Venus and Jupiter

The sky's two brightest planets – Venus and Jupiter – are now drawing closer together in the west after sunset.  A conjunction between the two planets will happen on November 24, 2019.  Venus, the brighter planet as seen in Earth's sky, will pass a scant 1.4 degrees south of Jupiter. For reference, that's about three moon-diameters, or about the width of your index finger held at arm's length.  On Nov. 27th and 28th, the crescent Moon will join the show, forming a celestial triangle that people in the USA will want to go outside and see after Thanksgiving dinner.

To maximize your enjoyment of these dazzling worlds, be sure find an unobstructed horizon in the direction of sunset.

No matter where you are on Earth, Venus and Jupiter will be the first objects in the sky to pop out at dusk. They'll follow the sun below your horizon as twilight gives way to dark. (Earthsky.org)

Have a good weekend.

Bob

​

Odds are pointing toward a drier-than normal and milder-than normal winter across Central and South Texas.  This is the NOAA/Climate Prediction Center (CPC) November seasonal update.  In an outlook released Thursday, CPC forecasters stated that while the tropical Pacific remains in a neutral state (neither El Niño or La Niña), patches of cooler than normal water in the eastern tropical Pacific are forecast to influence the North American jet stream pattern in a way that will result in drier than normal weather conditions across the southern Plains this winter.  The majority of the most recent dynamical and statistical forecast model solutions call for drier than normal conditions across most of Texas and the Southwestern U.S.

CPC forecasters followed the output of many of the dynamical and statistical model solutions showing increased odds temperatures this winter will average above normal across all of the southern US, including Texas.

Pasted below is CPC's temperature and precipitation outlook for December, followed by the outlook for December/January/February.  Note the precipitation outlook for the month of December calls for equal chances for above, below or near normal precipitation across the majority of Texas while the 3-month winter outlook calls for increased odds precipitation will average below normal.



Tropical Storm Sebastien Could Become a Hurricane Friday

Despite being in an environment with strong wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures, tropical storm Sebastien continues to hang on and the system may actually strengthen into a hurricane on Friday.  As of mid-afternoon Thursday, convection associated with Sebastien had become better organized based on satellite interpretation.  A large convective band had formed near and over the center in the eastern semicircle.  Sebastien is forecast to begin interacting with a cold front located to its northwest Friday afternoon.  As Sebastien becomes absorbed by the front, it is expected to quickly lose its tropical characteristics and slowly dissipate.

As of 3 pm CST Thursday, the center of Tropical Storm Sebastien was located about 445 miles north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  Sebastien was moving toward the northeast near 9 mph and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed Friday and through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds were near 60 mph with higher gusts.  Some strengthening will be possible Thursday night into Friday morning and it is possible Sebastien could briefly become a hurricane on Friday.  A weakening trend is expected to begin by late Friday, and the system is likely to become an extratropical cyclone on Saturday.



RAMMB-CIRA 11/22/2019  11:50 am CST



Bob

​

Although fall and early winter weather has settled in across much of our nation, topical weather season continues through the end of November.  For the past couple of days, forecasters have been monitoring a strong tropical disturbance located over the central tropical Atlantic.  Tuesday morning, satellite imagery indicated that the overall cloud pattern of the tropical disturbance had improved since Monday, and that the low had become well-defined.  In addition, satellite interpretation showed 35-38 knots winds extending 90 miles from the center in the northeastern quadrant.  The satellite data also showed the low pressure circulation was nearly closed at the surface.  Based on these parameters, forecasters with the National Hurricane Center upgraded the disturbance to become Tropical Storm Sebastien.



RAMMB-CIRA 11/19/2019 9:40 am CST

As of 9 am CST, the center of Tropical Storm Sebastien was located in the open Atlantic, about 275 miles northeast of the Leeward Island.  Sebastian was moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph. A turn to the north is expected on Wednesday followed by a turn to the northeast and an increase in forward speed Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds were near 45 mph with higher gusts.  Some slight strengthening will be possible over the next day or so.  Sebastien poses no threat to any land areas and is expected to become absorbed by a cold front in a couple of days and dissipate.

 
Sebastien is now the 18th named storm of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season to date and 2019 becomes the 9th Atlantic season on record with 18+ named storms.  According to Phil Klotzbach at Colorado State University, Sebastien's mid-November development is not all that rare.  There have been 20 Atlantic named storms forming after November 17th in the satellite era (since 1966).

Bob

​

It's a mild and picture-perfect day across Central and South Texas.  A ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere spreading into Texas out of the Southwestern U.S. is causing a sunny and very stable atmosphere.  These stable conditions are forecast to continue through Tuesday before clouds increase off the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night into Wednesday.

For this afternoon, sunshine will dominate and temperatures will warm to the middle 70s.  Light northerly winds will become southerly this afternoon and tonight.  Low temperatures Tuesday morning will range from the low 40s across the Hill Country to the upper 40s near the coast.  Some patchy fog will be possible close to sunrise for areas along and east of Interstate 35 Tuesday morning.

Tuesday's weather is looking to again be sunny and mild with the temperature warming to the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.  Expect a light south wind at 5-10 mph.  The sky is predicted to become overcast after midnight Tuesday night as clouds and moisture begin spreading north from the Gulf.  Lows Wednesday morning will generally be in the mid and upper 50s.

The focus of this week's weather will be on an area of low pressure settling into the Southwestern U.S. Thursday and its eventual path into the southern Plains states late week and into the weekend.  The advancing trough is expected to pull considerable moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico beginning Wednesday, resulting in a mostly cloudy to overcast sky.  As moisture levels increase, a few light rain showers will be possible Wednesday evening and Wednesday night.  High temperatures Wednesday will be around 78-80 degrees.  Lows Thursday morning will be in the low 60s.  Southerly winds are expected to increase to 10-20 mph with occasional gusts to 25 mph Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Periods of mostly light rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are predicted across the area Thursday through Friday as the southwestern trough begins lifting northeast towards the Plains states.  The probability for rain through the period will be near 50-60 percent.  However, the most favorable period for rain showers and thunderstorms will likely occur Friday afternoon into Friday evening when a cold front associated with the advancing trough pushes south through our area.  Occasional light showers are forecast to continue Friday night, with the rain tapering off from west to east late Friday night.  Rain amounts late week are not forecast to be very heavy, with most totals only averaging around a quarter inch.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 6 pm Monday through 6 pm Saturday:

High temperatures Thursday will be in the upper 70s and lows Friday morning will be in the 60s.  Temperatures on Friday will cool into the low and mid-60s behind the cold front.  Lows Saturday morning will range from around 38-40 degrees across the Hill Country to near 48-50 degrees towards the coast.

This weekend's weather is shaping up to be sunny and very fall-like.  High temperatures both days will be in the low and mid-60s.  Lows Sunday morning will be in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Looking ahead to next week, mostly sunny, dry and milder weather will be in place Monday and Tuesday.  High temperatures both days should be in the low and mid-70s.  Forecasts call for a Canadian cold front to sweep south through the area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, producing some scattered rain showers.  Totals should be quite low.  High temperatures Wednesday will be in the mid-70s.

Thanksgiving Day and next Friday's weather is shaping up to be mostly sunny and a little cooler.  High temperatures both days are forecast to be in the mid-60s, with lows in the 40s.  Forecasts call for a stronger cold front to sweep through the area sometime around the Saturday after Thanksgiving, bringing colder temperatures.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Forecasters are monitoring a broad area of low pressure located about 250 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  This system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms and winds of 30 to 35 mph on its northeastern side.  Some gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form during the next couple of days while it moves northwestward and then northward over the open Atlantic.  In a couple of days, upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive and the disturbance is forecast to merge with a frontal system after midweek, so additional development is not expected after that time.  This system poses no threat to any land areas.  NHC forecasters are giving this system a 50 percent chance for development over the next 5 days.  Weather conditions are quiet across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic.

 
RAMMB-CIRA 11/18/2019 10:10 am CST

 
Venus and Jupiter

Keep an eye on the western sky shortly after sunset this week and next week when the two brightest planets in our solar system, Venus and Jupiter, become very close.  The two planets' closest approach will occur beginning this Friday and continue into next week when the two will be less than 2 degrees apart!  The planet Venus will be the brightest of the two bright lights.

Have a good week.

Bob

​

After several days of cloudy, cold and damp weather, sunshine has returned to the Lone Star state.

 
RAMMB-CIRA 11/15/2019 12:50 pm CST

The trough of low pressure responsible for the recent overrunning pattern has moved off to the east, allowing an area of drier air to spread south into the state.  A dry sunny and stable weather pattern is now in place and is forecast to continue through the weekend.  Expect a light northeast wind at 5-10 mph this afternoon and tonight.  A light southerly wind is predicted for Saturday.
 

• With abundant sunshine in place, today's temperature should warm to around 60-62 degrees. 

• It will chilly tonight, with a light freeze expected across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions.  Lows Saturday morning will be around 30-32 degrees, with middle 30s occurring towards the coast.

• Saturday's temperature will be in the mid-60s.

• Low temperatures Sunday morning will range from the upper 30s across the Hill Country to the low 40s near the coast.

• High temperatures Sunday look to be around 68-70 degrees.

Forecasts call for a weak trough of low pressure to swing southeast across the southern Plains states on Sunday.  A cold front associated with the trough is predicted to sweep south our region Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.  With only meager moisture levels in place, no rain is forecast with the cold front.  Sunny and dry weather will follow the front Monday through Wednesday.  The front is not expected to bring any significantly cooler air.  In fact, milder temperatures are forecast for the first half of next week.

High temperatures Monday and Tuesday are predicted to be in the mid-70s, rising to the upper 70s on Wednesday.    Low temperatures Monday morning will be in the upper 30s to low 40s, rising to the mid and upper 40s Tuesday morning and the low to mid-50s Wednesday morning.

The weather pattern is  predicted to become more unsettled late next week, continuing into next Saturday.  Forecasts call for a large trough of low pressure over the Southwestern US to lift northeast to the southern Plains states during the upcoming period, pulling clouds and moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico.  Meanwhile, a Canadian cold front is predicted to sink south across our area next Thursday, with the front then pulling up stationary near the coast.  Periods of  rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast next Thursday through Saturday.  Rainfall forecasts as of now are calling for general totals to be in the range of 0.5 to 1 inch.  Just slightly cooler temperature are forecast for late next week and into next weekend, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 50s.

Longer-range outlooks call for continued mild temperatures through the first half of the following week (November 25th).  It's too early yet to have a good handle on the weather for Thanksgiving. I will point out some of the long-range modeling is calling for the weather pattern to trend more unsettled around Thanksgiving.  We'll begin to get a better idea on Thanksgiving weather next week so stay tuned for that.

Tropical Weather Update

Weather conditions are very quiet across the tropical Atlantic and tropical cyclone development is not forecast for at least the next 5 days.

In the eastern tropical Pacific, a strong tropical disturbance has recently strengthened and become Tropical Storm Raymond.  As of late Friday morning, Raymond was centered about 610 miles south of the southern tip of Baja, California.   Raymond was moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph, and this general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected through today.  A turn toward the north or north-northeast is forecast by late Saturday.  Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is anticipated during the next day or so.  But weakening is forecast to occur by Sunday, and the system is predicted to degenerate into a remnant low by late Sunday or early Monday.  Moisture from remnants of Raymond are predicted to spread north over the Southwestern U.S. during the early and middle parts of next week.

Forecasters are also monitoring a small area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  This system is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the north of the low.  Some gradual development of this disturbance is possible during the next few days while the system moves westward at around 10 mph.  NHC forecasters are giving this system a 30 percent chance for development over the next 5 days.


RAMMB-CIRA 11/15/2019 12:10 pm CST

Officially, hurricane season in the tropical Atlantic and eastern tropical Pacific basins runs through the end of November.

Have a good weekend.

Bob

​

The temperature fell below freezing Wednesday morning from the northern Hill Country, to the middle Texas coast. This was an early and very strong outbreak of arctic air!  This freeze was especially significant for the coastal plains region, where the average date of the first freeze is the middle of December.   According to LCRA's Hydromet, temperatures generally fell to the mid-20s across the Hill Country, the upper 20s across Central Texas and the low 30s across the coastal plains.  LCRA's Hydromet did show the temperature fell to the upper teens a handful of gauges across the northern Hill Country.  The lowest gauged temperature was 17 degrees at a spot about 6 miles west-northwest of Cross Plains, in Callahan County.  The temperature overall ended up being just a little warmer than forecast due to a thick veil of high-level clouds that spread over the region after midnight.

Hill Country Minimum Temperatures November 13th:

 
Central Texas and Coastal Plains Minimum Temperatures November 13th:

 
In Austin, the low temperature at Camp Mabry Wednesday morning was 30 degrees and at Austin-Bergstrom, the low was 27 degrees.  The average temperature through the first 12 days of the month is generally running more than 6 degrees below normal!

A weak overrunning pattern has developed across Central and South Texas in response to an area of low pressure tracking east across northern Mexico.  Forecasts call for periods of light rain to continue Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon as the low pressure system moves across South Texas.  Most rain amounts should total less than a half inch.  The rain is predicted to end from west to east Thursday afternoon.  Low temperatures Thursday morning will range from the mid-30s across the Hill Country, to around 40 degrees across the coastal plains.  High temperatures Thursday will be near 48-50 degrees.

Sunny, dry and a little warmer weather looks to develop Friday and Saturday.  High temperatures will be in the upper 50s Friday and the low 60s Saturday.  Lows Friday morning will be around 30 degrees across the Hill Country and in the low to mid-30s at most other locations.

Forecasts call for the sky to become mostly cloudy Sunday as moisture increases in advance of a weak trough diving south out of the Plains.  A few spotty rain showers may develop Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening, but totals should average less than a tenth of an inch.  High temperatures Sunday will be in the low 60s.

The outlook for next week calls for sunny, dry and mild weather through the first half of the week.  High temperatures will be in the low and mid-70s while low temperatures will be in the mid and upper 40s.

Bob

​

The light wintery precipitation which developed across much of the area Monday evening and Monday night has come to an end.  The trough of low pressure responsible for the precipitation has exited off to the east.  However, it is a very cold day across Texas!  As of 11:00 am, the temperature was still below freezing across the Hill Country, while most readings were only in the mid-30s across Central Texas.  Satellite images showed the sky had become partly cloudy across the Hill Country as the low clouds were sinking to the south.  This clearing trend is forecast to continue through the afternoon, with the sky becoming partly cloudy across the region.  Despite some scattered sunshine, today's temperature is going to stay quite chilly, with readings peaking only in the low and mid-40s.  Strong  winds this morning should decrease to around 10-15 mph, with occasional gusts to 25 mph this afternoon.

Dry weather and very cold temperatures are forecast tonight into Wednesday morning.  With wind speeds decreasing to 5-10 mph, conditions will be favorable for the temperature to become quite cold.  A hard freeze is forecast for all locations, including the coastal plains!  Remember your plants, pets, pipes and loved ones.

Low temperatures Wednesday morning will include:
 

• The low and middle 20s across the Hill Country.

• The middle and upper 20s across Central Texas (including the Austin metro area).  Middle and upper 20s also look to extend south to the Interstate 10 corridor to include Colorado County.

• The upper 20s across the coastal plains.

On Wednesday, our attention will turn to northern Mexico, where a large trough of low pressure will be tracking to the east.  This system will pull a large area of low clouds back over our region beginning Wednesday afternoon.  As the trough approaches South Texas Wednesday night, a large area of light rain showers is forecast to develop and spread east over our region.  These light rain showers are expected to persist over the area into Thursday afternoon, with the rain ending from west to east Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.  Fortunately, temperatures Wednesday night through Thursday are forecast to be above freezing, so there will not be a threat for any wintery precipitation.  Lows Thursday morning will range from the mid-30s across the Hill Country to the low 40s across the coastal plains.  High temperatures Thursday will be in the low and mid-50s.

Rain amounts from Wednesday night through Thursday evening are not expected to be very heavy.  Totals across the Hill Country are forecast average around a quarter inch, or less.  For areas along and east of Interstate 35, totals are forecast to generally average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches.  Totals across Wharton and Matagorda Counties are forecast to average between 0.5 and 0.75 inches.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 am Tuesday through 7 am Friday:

Sunny, dry and cool weather is forecast Friday, continuing through the weekend as a stable ridge of high pressure strengthens over Texas.  High temperatures will be in the 60s, with low temperatures in the 40s.

This morning's forecast data indicates a few light showers may develop next Sunday night when a weak trough of low pressure sweeps across Texas.  As of now, rain amounts are forecast to average less than a tenth of an inch.   Dry and a little milder weather will follow for the first half of next week.

Stay warm and have a good Tuesday!

Bob