Forecast for Central Texas

Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
43 °F / 26 °F 51 °F / 31 °F 60 °F / 38 °F 67 °F / 43 °F 68 °F / 48 °F
43 ° / 26 ° 51 ° / 31 ° 60 ° / 38 ° 67 ° / 43 ° 68 ° / 48 °
Mostly Sunny, Breezy Cold Sunny Sunny Sunny Mostly Sunny
Updated November 13, 2018

Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

A Couple of Nights of Freezing Temperatures Before Milder Readings Make a Return.
Tuesday, November 13, 2018 4:17 PM

Arctic high pressure spreading into Texas brought very cold temperatures to Central and South Texas early Tuesday. According to LCRA's Hydromet, the temperature reached or fell below freezing across the all of the Hill Country, while to the east of Interstate 35, all locations stayed just above freezing.  There was a hard freeze across the western and northern Hill Country, where readings fell to the mid-20s.  LCRA's lowest gauged temperature was 23 degrees at a couple of spots located to the southeast of Abilene.  In Austin, Camp Mabry recorded a low temperature of 34 degrees while Austin-Bergstrom saw a low temperature of 36 degrees.

Minimum Temperatures Tuesday Morning, November 13th:
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This morning's freezing temperatures across the Hill Country were the first of the season.  The timing of today's freeze coincides fairly well with the latest 30-year average for first freeze across the Hill Country.  The freezing temperatures predicted for Central Texas Tuesday and Wednesday nights will be about 1-2 weeks early.  And for the coastal plains region, the forecasted freeze Tuesday and Wednesday nights will be about 3-4 weeks ahead of normal.

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Conditions will be setting up for a freeze across the entire region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and again Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  Tuesday's weather maps showed a large dome of arctic high pressure settling south over Texas.  As the center of the high pressure system sets up, wind speeds should decrease to around 5-10 mph.  The combination of a clear sky, light winds and a cold air mass will allow temperatures to turn quite cold overnight.  A hard freeze is forecast across all of the Hill Country.

Low temperatures Wednesday morning will include the low and middle 20s across the Hill Country, the mid and upper 20s across Central Texas and the upper 20s across the coastal plains region.  Even areas adjacent to the coast are expected to see readings fall to around 31 or 32 degrees.

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Another freeze is forecast Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  Low temperatures Thursday morning look to be around 28-30 degrees across the Hill Country and around 30-32 degrees across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast.

Sunny and milder weather is predicted for Thursday, continuing through Saturday.  No additional freezes are forecast.  High temperatures will be in the low 60s Thursday, in the middle 60s Friday and the upper 60s Saturday.  Low temperatures Friday morning will be in the low 40s and in the upper 40s Saturday morning.

Forecast solutions call for a Canadian cold front to sweep across the region Sunday morning, bringing slightly cooler air for early next week.  High temperatures look to be around 58-60 degrees, with low temperatures in the low and mid-40s.  Milder readings are predicted for the second half of next week as the cool air mass moves off to the east and southerly winds return off the Gulf.  High temperatures will warm through the 60s to the low 70s, with lows in the 50s.

Forecast solutions call for scattered rain showers to develop across the region Sunday, with more showers expected through the middle of next week.  A trough of low pressure from the eastern Pacific is forecast to take shape over the Desert Southwest early next week.  The best chance for rain is forecast to occur Tuesday into Wednesday, with the rain ending late Wednesday as the trough exits to the northeast.  As of now, Thanksgiving Day weather is shaping up to be mostly sunny and dry.

No additional outbreaks of arctic air are forecast over the next 10-day to 2-week period.

Bob

Previous Blog Entries

Freezing Temperatures Expected Monday through Wednesday Nights as Arctic Air Makes a Visit.
Monday, November 12, 2018 2:29 PM

In the wake of a cloudy and cool weekend, the coldest air so far this autumn is just hours away from spreading across the region.  Winter is arriving earlier than normal this year, with the season's first freeze expected over the next 2-3 nights.  As of early this afternoon, radar showed a widespread area of light rain showers stretching southwest to northeast across Central and South Texas.  These overrunning showers are predicted to continue throughout the afternoon, with the activity tapering off from west to east late afternoon and early evening.  Rain amounts through this evening are forecast to remain below a quarter inch.

All eyes are on an arctic cold front that is pushing south-southeast out of North Texas.  As of noon, the front stretched from Texarkana to just south of Austin to Rocksprings and Marfa.  Temperatures s behind the front were generally in the upper 30s to low 40s.  Ahead of the front, readings were in the mid-50s across the middle Texas coast and in the upper 40s across Central Texas.  The cold front is forecast to move past the Austin area early this afternoon, reaching the middle Texas coast in the late afternoon.  This afternoon's temperature will trend down to the low 40s to upper 30s across the Hill Country and the low to middle 40s across Central Texas.  Readings will hold mostly in the middle 50s across the coastal plains.  Wind speeds will increase to a range of 15-25 mph, with occasional gusts to 30 mph.  A large dome of high pressure building south behind today's cold front will bring additional cold air while causing windy conditions tonight into Tuesday.  Expect a northerly wind at 10-20 mph overnight, with winds of 10-15 mph blowing throughout the day Tuesday.  The sky is forecast to remain cloudy overnight, with clouds clearing from west to east late Monday night into Tuesday morning.  A dry and sunny pattern is sky is forecast to develop Tuesday and continue through late week.

Arctic air spreading south behind today's cold front will keep weather conditions quite cold into late week.  The latest forecast data indicates all of the region will have the potential see at least a light freeze on a couple of occasions this week.  Folks with tender vegetation should take precautions against the very cold readings expected over the next three nights.

 

  • For Monday night into Tuesday morning, freezing temperatures are predicted for all of the Hill Country and Central Texas, including the Austin area.  Low temperatures Tuesday morning will be in the upper 20s across the Hill Country and be around 30-32 degrees across Central Texas.  Mid to upper 30s are forecast across the coastal plains region.
 

  • Under bright sunshine, Tuesday's temperature should generally warm to the middle 40s.
 

  • Tuesday night into Wednesday morning is shaping up to be the coldest night of the week, with freezing temperatures expected at all locations.  There will be a hard freeze across the Hill Country.  Low temperatures Wednesday morning are forecast to be in the mid-20s across the Hill Country, the upper 20s across Central Texas down to roughly Interstate 10.  Lows across the coastal plains region will be near 30-32 degrees.
 
  • With abundant sunshine, Wednesday's temperature should warm to the low 50s.
 

  • Another freeze is predicted Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  Lows Thursday morning will include the upper 20s across the Hill Country and be around 30-32 degrees across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast.

 
Forecasts call for the arctic high pressure system to slowly move off to the east beginning Thursday.  Light southwesterly winds will develop, leading to slightly warmer temperatures.   Readings should reach the upper 50s Thursday and the middle 60s Friday and Saturday.  Low temperatures Friday morning will include the middle 30s across the Hill Country and the upper 30s at most other locations.  Lows Saturday morning are forecast to be in the upper 30s across the Hill Country and the lower 40s at most other locations.

Forecast solutions call for another Canadian cold front to sweep south through the region next Sunday.  With limited moisture in place, no clouds or rain are expected with the front.  The air behind this next front will reinforce the cool, dry conditions already in place for Sunday and Monday.  High temperatures both days look to be in the low 60s, with low temperatures in the middle 40s.

Monday's longer-range forecast solutions call for the weather pattern to trend mostly cloudy beginning next Tuesday as upper-level winds turn westerly and a series of weak low pressure troughs begin to track east out of the eastern Pacific.  A mostly cloudy sky is forecast next Tuesday, with the sky remaining mostly cloudy for the remainder of the week.  A few light rain showers are forecast to develop next Tuesday, with periodic light rain showers continuing Wednesday, Thanksgiving Day and into the following Saturday.  Rain amounts through the period are not expected to be very heavy.  High temperatures next week are shaping up to be around 68-70 degrees, with low temperatures in the low and middle 50s. Today's long-range forecasts do not show another arctic outbreak headed our direction over the next 10-day to 2-week period.

Tropical Weather Season is Not Over Quite Yet

National Hurricane Center forecasters are closely monitoring a large area of disturbed weather over much of the western tropical Atlantic Ocean associated with a strong tropical wave.   This system is located roughly 200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.  Environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become conducive for a tropical depression to form here during the next few days, but the system's interaction with land areas of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola could inhibit tropical cyclone formation.  The disturbance is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward for the next few days, passing near or north of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern Bahamas.  NHC forecasters are giving this system an 80 percent chance for tropical development over the next 5 days.  This disturbance poses no threat to the Gulf of Mexico.

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RAMMB-CIRA 11/12/2018 11:00 am CST 

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Elsewhere across the tropical Atlantic, conditions are quiet and tropical cyclone development is not expected for at least the next 5 days.

Bob

Monitoring an Arctic Cold Front Forecast for Monday. Rain Expected with the Front.
Friday, November 9, 2018 3:06 PM


Widespread rain showers and scattered thunderstorms developed across the region Thursday night into Friday morning in response to a trough of low pressure and a southward-moving cold front.  The highest amounts of rain occurred along and just east of the Interstate 35 corridor and also across the coastal plains region, where totals were generally in the range of 1-2 inches.  Totals across the Hill Country were less than a half inch.  LCRA's highest gauged total was 3.17 inches at the Sim Gideon Power Plant, along Lake Bastrop in Bastrop County.

NWS Estimate of Rain Falling Between 1 pm Thursday and 1 pm Friday:
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As of early Friday afternoon, all of the rain had exited the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, but some rain was still falling across the coastal plains region, to the south of US Highway 59 .  The rain is forecast to exit the coastal area around mid-afternoon.  Although the rain is exiting our region, a weak pattern of overrunning clouds will remain in place thanks to a trough of low pressure located over southern California and the Desert Southwest.  Warm Gulf air lifting up and over the cool air at the surface is expected to produce a partly to mostly cloudy sky this afternoon through Sunday.  Some scattered sunshine will be possible this afternoon and Saturday, especially for the northern counties of the Hill Country and Central Texas.  There will be a north wind at 10-20 mph this afternoon.  Wind speeds will decrease to around 10-15 mph tonight and Saturday.  The temperature will be very fall-like in the wake of Thursday night's cold front.

 

  • High temperatures this afternoon will generally be in the low and middle 50s.
 

  • Lows Saturday morning will range from the upper 30s across the Hill Country to around 40-42 degrees across Central Texas to the middle 40s near the coast.
 

  • High temperatures Saturday will range from the upper 40s across the Hill Country to the mid-50s near the coast.
 

  • Low temperatures Sunday morning  will generally be in the low and middle 40s, with upper 40s towards the coast.
 

  • High temperatures Sunday will be close to 60 degrees.
 
Forecasters continue to monitor big weather developments Sunday into Monday as a large trough of low pressure takes shape across the Rockies.  This trough is forecast to move east-southeast across the Plains states early next week, allowing an arctic cold front to sink south out of northwestern Canada.  The advancing trough will help pull clouds and moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico beginning Sunday.  This will result in the development of light showers across the coastal plains region Sunday afternoon, with the rain showers spreading north to cover the rest of the region Sunday night into Monday.  The best chance for rain will occur when the arctic front presses south through the region.  The front is predicted to reach the northern Hill Country around mid-morning Monday, the Austin area around midday and the coastal plains region about mid-afternoon.  The rain should taper off fairly quickly behind the cold front.  Rain amounts Sunday through Monday are not forecast to be very heavy, with most totals being in the range of 0.25 to 0.50 inches.  Sunny and dry weather is forecast Tuesday through Friday.

Monday's cold front will bring the coldest temperatures we've seen so far this autumn.  The Hill Country and parts of Central Texas will have a good possibility for seeing a light freeze Monday night and again Tuesday night.

Temperatures ahead of the cold front Monday morning will warm through the 50s, but will trend down into the 40s in the afternoon as the front pushes south.  Expect a northwesterly wind at 15-25 mph Monday afternoon into Monday evening.

  • Low temperatures Tuesday morning are forecast to be near 28-30 degrees across the Hill Country, in the mid-30s across Central Texas and the upper 30s across the coastal plains.
 

  • High temperatures Tuesday will be in the low 50s.
 

  • Low temperatures Wednesday morning are forecast to be near 28-30 degrees across the Hill Country, in the low to mid-30s across Central Texas and middle 30s towards the coast.
 

  • High temperatures Wednesday will be in the upper 50s.
 

  • Lows Thursday morning will generally be in the upper 30s.  High temperatures Thursday will be in the low 60s.
 
NWS Minimum Temperature Forecast for Wednesday Morning, 11/14:
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The arctic high pressure system is forecast to exit to the east late week into next weekend, allowing somewhat milder temperatures to return.  High temperatures should warm to the low and middle 60s Friday and next weekend.  Low temperatures will be in the mid and upper 40s.

Long-range solutions indicate the weather pattern will stay dry until a day or two before Thanksgiving.  I'll talk more about the outlook for Thanksgiving in Monday's update.

Tropical Weather Update

Weather conditions are quiet across the tropical Atlantic and there are no systems in place which pose a threat for tropical development for at least the next 5 days.

Orion the Hunter Now Easy to View

Tonight, watch for the constellation Orion the Hunter – perhaps the easiest-to-identify of all constellations – rising at mid-evening.  It's around late November and early December that people begin to notice Orion in the evening sky, and comment on it. Orion  will climb over the eastern horizon by around 9 p.m. tonight.  You can find this constellation and watch it for in the months to come.

The most noticeable part of Orion is the pattern called Orion's Belt: three medium-bright stars in a short, straight row.  As seen from mid-northern latitudes, Orion appears to be lying on his side – with his Belt stars pointing upward – when he first ascends into our eastern sky in mid-evening at this time of year.  Orion's two brightest stars — Betelgeuse and Rigel — shine on opposite sides of the Belt.

Have a good weekend.

Bob

Freezing Temperatures Possible Next Week Across the Hill Country and Parts of Central Texas.
Thursday, November 8, 2018 5:09 PM

An arctic cold front blasting through the region next Monday is expected to bring freezing temperatures to the Hill Country and also to parts of Central Texas next Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.  Thursday's forecast data calls for an unusually deep trough of low pressure to develop over the Plains states early next week. This trough will allow a mass of very chilly air to spill south from northern Canada all the way south into Texas. 

The leading edge of this cold air is forecast to reach the Texas Panhandle Monday morning, with the front racing south across Central and South Texas Monday afternoon and evening.  The front is predicted to be well out over the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday, with a large dome of arctic high pressure settling south across Texas behind the front.  An area of light rain showers is forecast to develop ahead of and along the cold front Sunday night into Monday, with most rain amounts staying under a quarter inch.  The rain should taper off shortly behind the cold front.

Low temperatures Tuesday morning will include the low and middle 30s across the Hill Country, the mid-30s across Central Texas and the upper 30s towards the coast.

Tuesday's weather will be sunny and cool with temperatures reaching the low and middle 50s.

Tuesday night is shaping up to be the coldest night of the week.  Lows Wednesday morning are forecast to be near 28-31 degrees across the Hill Country, around 30-34 degrees across Central Texas and in the mid to upper 30s across the coastal plains.

Wednesday's weather will be sunny with temperatures reaching the mid and upper 50s.

Low temperatures Thursday morning will include the low and middle 30s across the Hill Country, the mid and upper 30s across Central Texas and the upper 30 across the coastal plains.

Sunny and a bit warmer weather is forecast next Thursday and Friday as the arctic high pressure system moves off to the east.  High temperatures will be in the 60s, with low temperatures in the 40s.

Interests across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions should take notice of this impending cold outbreak and begin to take precautions against this potential light freeze.

Bob
El Niño is Brewing but it Still Has a Ways to Go.
Thursday, November 8, 2018 1:44 PM



El Niño has not quite developed yet.  That's the assessment from the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center in Thursday's monthly ENSO diagnostic discussion.  The tropical Pacific remained in ENSO neutral territory during October, despite widespread above-average sea surface temperatures stretching across the equatorial Pacific.  Sea surface temperatures have surpassed the threshold for the development of El Niño at most locations between the coast of South America and the International Date Line.

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Average sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (°C) for the week centered on October 31, 2018.

 

However, CPC forecasters note that atmospheric convection, or thunderstorm activity, remains slightly suppressed near the Date Line and over Indonesia.  Low-level westerly wind anomalies were observed mainly over the eastern Pacific during October, while weak upper-level westerly wind anomalies were present over the far western Pacific.  During El Niño, upper-level winds typically blow from east to west.  The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were both near zero during October.  Both of these indices are typically negative during El Niño.

So despite the above-average ocean temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, it appears the atmosphere hasn't quite coupled or connected with the warm waters just yet.  As a result, CPC forecasters state the overall coupled ocean-atmosphere system still reflects ENSO-neutral conditions.

The majority of long-range forecast models predict sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific will remain above the threshold for the development of El Niño through the rest of the fall and winter, and even into spring. 
 
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The official forecast favors the formation of a weak El Niño, with the expectation that the atmospheric circulation will eventually couple with the anomalous equatorial Pacific warmth. In summary, El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (~80% chance) and into spring (55-60% chance).

Bob
 

Rain Showers Developing Wednesday through Friday. Turning Colder Thursday Night.
Tuesday, November 6, 2018 12:47 PM



Weather conditions are currently quiet across Central and South Texas.  A shallow layer of moisture returning off the Gulf this morning resulted in the development of widespread low clouds and fog for areas along and to the east of Interstate 35 overnight.   The clouds and fog are forecast to burn off early this afternoon, with the sky becoming partly cloudy.  This afternoon's temperature will be warm, rising to the low and middle 80s.  Expect a southerly wind at 5-10 mph.  The pattern looks to repeat tonight, with widespread low clouds and fog developing for areas along and east of Interstate 35.  Low temperatures Wednesday morning will range from the low 60s across the Hill Country to the low 70s towards the coast.

The weather pattern is expected to become more unsettled and wet Wednesday through Friday afternoon when a couple of waves of low pressure and a cold front move across the state.  Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the region throughout the day Wednesday when a wave of low pressure in the middle atmosphere tracks east across northern Texas.  The probability for rain will generally be near 30-40 percent Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Rain amounts Wednesday through early Thursday morning are forecast to average near or less than a quarter inch.  The wave of low pressure will help push a weak Canadian cold front south across the area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.  Temperatures ahead of the front will generally warm to the mid and upper 70s.  Behind the front, readings Wednesday afternoon should fall to the mid and upper 60s.  Low temperatures Thursday morning will be in the mid and upper 50s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the mid to upper 60s across the coastal plains.

A better coverage of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms is predicted to occur Thursday and Thursday night when a second and stronger wave of low pressure tracks east across the Red River Valley region.  The probability for rain is forecast to be near 60 percent Thursday, increasing to near 80 percent Thursday night.  There will be 30 percent chance for scattered light rain showers across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions on Friday, with the rain tapering off Friday afternoon.  There will be 70 percent chance for rain showers across the coastal plains region Friday, with the rain tapering off Friday evening.  Rain amounts Thursday through Friday are predicted to average between 0.25 and 0.50 inches across the Hill Country, between 0.5 and 0.75 inches across Central Texas and be around an inch for areas to the south of Interstate 10.

NWS rainfall forecast for the period 6 pm Tuesday through 6 pm Friday:
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A Canadian cold front is forecast to surge south across the region late Thursday and Thursday night, bringing noticeably cooler air.  It's possible parts of the Hill Country could see a frost early Saturday morning.

          High temperatures Thursday will be around 68-70 degrees. 

  • Lows Friday morning will include the low and mid-40s across the Hill Country, the upper 40s across Central Texas and the mid to upper 50s towards the coast. 
  • High temperatures Friday will be in the upper 50s. 
  • Lows Saturday morning will include the upper 30s across the Hill Country, the low and mid-40s across Central Texas and the upper 40s across the coastal plains.

 

Partly cloudy and dry weather conditions are forecast to develop Saturday and continue through Sunday.  High temperatures in the upper 50s Saturday, will warm to the mid-60s on Veteran's Day.  Low temperatures Sunday morning will range from the low 40s Hill Country to near 50 degrees towards the coast.  Lows Monday morning will range from the mid-40s across the Hill Country, to the mid-50s towards the coast.

The outlook for next week calls for dry and cool conditions throughout the week as a Jet Stream pattern more typical of early winter develops across North America.  Forecast solutions call for a large ridge of high pressure to build north along the West Coast throughout the week, with a large downstream trough of low pressure taking shape across the central US.  This ridge/trough pattern will allow some of the coldest air so far this autumn to spread south behind a cold front Monday night into Tuesday morning.

  • High temperatures Monday are forecast to be in the low and mid-60s.
  •  
    Lows Tuesday morning will include the upper 30s across the Hill Country, the low 40s across Central Texas and mid-40s across the coastal plains. 
  • High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday are forecast to be in the mid-50s. 
  • Low temperatures Wednesday morning are shaping up to be the coldest of the week.  Lows will include the low to mid-30s across the Hill Country, the mid to upper 30s across Central Texas and be close to 40 degrees across the coastal plains. 
  • High temperatures are predicted to be near 58-60 degrees Thursday and in the low to mid-60s Friday. 
  • Lows Thursday morning will range from the upper 30s across the Hill Country to the low 40s near the coast. 
  • Lows Friday morning will generally be in the mid-40s.  

Longer-range forecasts call for the weather pattern to remain dry the weekend of November 17th, with temperatures slowly warming.

Tropical Weather Update

Weather conditions are quiet across the tropical Atlantic and tropical cyclone development is not expected for at least the next 5 days.

November New Moon

New moon will occur Wednesday morning, 11/7 at 10:01 am CST.  Full moon will occur on November 22nd.

Have a good week.

Bob

A Chance for Rain Sunday. Dry and Cool Weather Expected Monday through Wednesday.
Friday, November 2, 2018 2:59 PM

Some of the chilliest temperatures so far this autumn occurred early Friday morning under a clear sky with light winds.  According to LCRA's Hydromet, minimum temperatures included the upper 30s to low 40s across the Hill Country, the low and middle 40s across Central Texas and upper 40s across the middle Texas coast.  LCRA's lowest gauged temperature was 34 degrees at a couple of spots in the Hill Country located in northwestern Kimble County and eastern Schleicher County.  In Austin, the low temperature at Camp Mabry was 46 degrees while at Austin-Bergstrom, the low temperature was 40 degrees.

Friday morning's weather maps showed a stable ridge of high pressure covering the south central US.  At the surface, a large dome of Canadian high pressure covered the south central US.  This high pressure system brought with it cooler and much dry air.  The high is predicted to remain over the region this afternoon, then slowly move off to the east on Saturday.  A light westerly wind is forecast this afternoon, with the wind becoming southerly by tonight.  Wind speeds will increase to a range of 10-15 mph on Saturday.  A clear sky is currently observed across the region and these clear conditions should persist through late Friday night.  The sky will be mostly sky Saturday.  This afternoon's temperature will generally warm to the low and middle 70s.  Lows Saturday morning will be near 48-50 degrees across the Hill Country and in the low 50s at most other locations.  High temperatures Saturday will be in the mid-70s.

Forecasters are keeping an eye on a trough of low pressure located over the northwestern US that is quickly diving to the southeast.  The trough is forecast to reach the Texas Panhandle Saturday evening, with the system turning east-northeast across Oklahoma late Saturday night into Sunday.  The advancing trough will help push a Pacific cold front across Texas beginning Saturday night.  The front is forecast to reach the northern Hill Country late Saturday evening, the Austin area after midnight and the coastal plains region around sunrise Sunday morning.  Only a limited amount of Gulf moisture is expected to return to areas west of Interstate 35 ahead of the front.  As a result, there will be just a slight chance for the development of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Hill Country beginning late Saturday evening, continuing through Sunday morning.  Across the Central Texas region, there will be a 40-50 percent chance for rain showers and thunderstorms between midnight Saturday night and about midday Sunday.  Across the coastal plains region, there will be a 40-50 percent chance for rain showers and thunderstorms between late Saturday night and late afternoon Sunday.  Although a few scattered thunderstorms are forecast, the activity is not expected to become severe.

Rain amounts through Sunday afternoon are predicted to average less than a tenth of an inch across the Hill Country, be around a quarter inch across Central Texas and between 0.25 and 0.50 inches across the coastal plains region.  The rain should taper off from west to east Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon as the cold front pushes east into the Gulf of Mexico.  The sky will become partly cloudy Sunday afternoon with the temperature warming to around 68-70 degrees.  Low temperatures Monday morning will range from the upper 40s across the Hill Country to the upper 50s near the coast.

Monday's weather is shaping up to be partly cloudy and mild.  The temperature is forecast to warm to around 78-80 degrees.  A Canadian cold front is forecast to sweep southeast across the region late Monday night into Tuesday morning, bringing cooler air for the remainder of the week.  There will be a slight chance for a few rain showers across the coastal plains region Tuesday morning with the cold front.  For most other locations, meager moisture levels limit the development of rain development.  A mostly sunny sky is forecast Tuesday through Wednesday.  High temperatures both days will be around 70-72 degrees with low temperatures ranging from 48-52 degrees out west to around 58 degrees towards the coast.

Forecast solutions call for another Canadian cold front to sweep south across the region next Thursday, bringing a reinforcing blast of cooler air for late week into next weekend.  High temperatures will fall back to the upper 60s, with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.  A chance for scattered rain showers will develop next Thursday and continue into next weekend as a series of low pressure troughs take shape over the Desert Southwest and move east, causing an overrunning pattern.  Forecasts indicate rain amounts late week into next weekend won't be all that heavy, with totals averaging around a half to three quarters of an inch.  There are no indications for unusually warm or unusually cool temperatures across our region over the next two week period.

Tropical Weather Update

Weather conditions across the tropical Atlantic are currently quiet, with no organized systems in place.  Tropical cyclone development is not expected for at least the next 5 days.

Conditions are fairly active across the tropical eastern Pacific where there are three separate low pressure systems to the south and west of Mexico producing clouds and showers.   The easternmost system, located about 600 miles south of Baja, California is becoming better organized and has a good chance of becoming a tropical depression by tonight.  The system is moving north-northeast towards the southwestern Mexican coast.  We will need to monitor the progress of this system over the next several days as some of the moisture associated with the system could get pulled north towards Texas.

Bob2.png RAMMB-CIRA 11/02/2018 12:15 pm CDT

Time Change Weekend

Dont Forget; Daylight Saving Time will come to an end this weekend. We will officially return to Central Standard Time Sunday morning, November 4th, at 2 am.   Remember to set your clocks back one hour before you go to bed Saturday night.  Sunday's time change means sunrise and sunset will be one hour earlier on Nov. 4 than it was the day before, meaning there will be more daylight in the morning hours and less daylight in the evening.

Early November Planets

In early November, the planets Mercury and Jupiter might be possible to spot low in the western sky in the glow of evening twilight.  Mars will be easy to catch in the southern sky while fainter Saturn is moderately easy to spot in the southeast sky.  Venus, the brightest planet, is now back in the eastern sky before sunrise.  Each day throughout November, this blazing beauty of a planet will rise sooner before sunrise and will brighten all the while.  Although Venus will be a fixture of the morning sky until mid-August 2019, it'll shine at its brightest in late November and early December 2018.

Have a good weekend.

Bob

October's Rain Was One for the Record Books!
Thursday, November 1, 2018 6:19 PM

The month of October is typically the wettest month of fall, but October 2018 was off the charts wet for a large majority of Texas.  Preliminary data from the State Climatologist Office indicates October will likely be the wettest October in the state's weather history.  The widespread high totals of rain are also expected to push October 2018 into the category of second wettest month ever recorded.

An analysis of October's rain from the National Weather Service shows a large area of Hill County, plus West and North Texas received between 10 and 15 inches of rain.  Several spots within this same area recorded more than 15 inches.  Totals exceeding 20 inches occurred just east of College Station:
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Across the Austin/Central Texas region, totals were generally between 6 and 8 inches, with a few totals exceeding 10 inches.

Compared to normal, October's totals were more than 8 inches above normal across the Hill Country along with most of West and North Texas.  Across Central Texas, totals were generally 4-5 inches above normal:
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In Austin, October's rain total at Camp-Mabry was 7.74 inches.  This total was 3.86 inches above normal.  October 2018 ranks as the 16th wettest October on record.  At Austin-Bergstrom Airport, October's total was 7.20 inches, which was 2.96 inches above normal.  October 2018 ranks as the 11th wettest October on record.

From a statewide perspective, the rainfall observed in September and October has been phenomenal!  October 2018 is now the 2nd wettest month in Texas history while September 2018 has become the 4th wettest month on record.  The wettest month ever recorded in Texas occurred in May 2015, with the 3rd wettest month occurring last year in August 2017. 

Bob
Severe Thunderstorms Possible Late Wednesday Afternoon and Evening.
Tuesday, October 30, 2018 1:48 PM

Forecasters continuing to monitor forecasted weather developments for Wednesday and Wednesday night.  A large trough of low pressure pushing east out of the Rockies tonight and Wednesday will push a strong Canadian cold front into the Texas Panhandle.  The front is forecast to reach Northwest Texas Wednesday morning and the northern Hill Country around early to mid-afternoon.  The front is predicted to reach the Austin area around 6-7 pm and the La Grange area about midnight.  The front will continue moving south and push off the coast before sunrise Thursday morning.

A line of rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast to develop along and just behind the cold front Wednesday afternoon as it pushes south out of North Texas.  The highest chance for thunderstorm development is expected to occur over areas that are along and to the east of Interstate 35.  The line of rain and storms is forecast to move across the Austin/Central Texas area late Wednesday afternoon/early evening and continue moving southeast towards the coast Wednesday night.  Wednesday's atmosphere will be structured in such a way that developing thunderstorms will have the potential to become strong to severe.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the Hill Country and the Austin area under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorm.  Areas east and southeast of Austin, including Bastrop, Lee, Fayette and Colorado Counties have been placed under an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms  Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.   A slight risk means scattered severe storms will be possible while an enhance risk means numerous severe storms will be possible.            

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The primary severe weather threat is forecast to damaging straight line winds.  However, there will also be a chance for large hail and a couple of isolated tornadoes.  The severe weather threat will end once the line pushes south of the area.

Rain amounts through Wednesday night are expected to be a little heavier than previously forecast.  Updated predictions now call for totals of 0.5 to 1 inch across much of the northern Hill Country, most of Central Texas along with the middle Texas coast.

NWS rainfall forecast for the period 7 pm Tuesday through 7 pm Thursday:
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Sunny, dry and cooler weather looks to follow Thursday through Saturday.  High temperatures will be in the 60s Thursday, warming to around 70-72 degrees Friday and Saturday.  Low temperatures Friday and Saturday mornings will generally be in the mid and upper 40s.

Wednesday's line of rain and thunderstorms may indeed interfere with Halloween Trick or Treat activities for folks across the Hill Country and in the Austin area.  For those planning to be outside, remember to be weather aware not only for the rain, but also for the threat of severe storms and dangerous cloud to ground lightning.  If you are close enough to hear thunder you are at risk from being struck by lightning.

Bob

Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms Expected Halloween. Turning Dry and Cooler Late Week.
Monday, October 29, 2018 2:28 PM

The dry and stable weather pattern which developed across Texas late last week continues in place as we start off the new week.  In the upper-levels of the atmosphere, a broad stable ridge of high pressure covers the south central US and northern Mexico, producing quiet and dry conditions.  The ridge of high pressure is forecast to remain over our region into Tuesday, then move east as a large trough of low pressure dives southeast out of the southern Rockies.  At the surface, the large dome of Canadian high pressure which settled over our region this weekend has now shifted east to the Gulf of Mexico, causing southerly winds to return off the Gulf of Mexico.  These winds are expected to pull moisture north, resulting in scattered clouds and higher humidity levels for the next 2-3 days.

This afternoon's weather will be sunny, breezy and warm.  Readings will warm to the low and middle 80s.  Expect a south wind at 10-15 mph.  The sky is forecast to turn partly to mostly cloudy overnight.  Temperatures won't be as cool as recent nights due to the cloud cover and higher humidity levels.  Lows Tuesday morning will generally be in the mid-60s.  A south breeze at 10-15 mph is forecast to persist overnight.

For Tuesday and Tuesday night, widespread morning clouds will give way to a partly cloudy sky in the afternoon.  The temperature will warm to the low 80s.  Expect a south wind at 10-15 mph.  There will be a slight chance for a few rain showers across the western and northern Hill Country regions late Tuesday night.  Lows Wednesday morning will range from the mid-60s across the Hill Country to near 70 degrees towards the coast.

A significant change in the weather is forecast to occur Wednesday into Wednesday night when a cold front associated with the advancing trough of low pressure tracks southeast out of the southern Rockies.  The cold front is predicted to reach the northern Hill Country mid to late afternoon on Wednesday and the Austin area around 9-10 pm Wednesday evening.  The front should continue moving southeast Wednesday night, pushing off the coast well before sunrise Thursday morning.  Ahead of the cold front, moisture levels will increase across the region.  At the same time, the atmosphere will begin to trend somewhat unstable.  There will be 40-50 percent chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the region Wednesday afternoon.  The most favorable period for rain and thunderstorms is expected to be along and just behind cold frontal passage as the probability for rain increases to 70 percent.  The chance for rain will diminish behind the cold front as drier and cooler air spreads into the region.

Some of the thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening may be severe across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area from roughly Austin, southeast to the coast and east to the Sabine River under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms.  The primary severe weather threats will be damaging straight-line winds and large hail.  Despite the high probability for rain, amounts are not predicted to be very high.  Totals through Thursday morning are forecast to be near of less than a quarter inch across the Hill Country, between 0.25 and .50 inches across Central Texas and between 0.50 and 0.75 inches across the coastal plains region.
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Sunny, dry and cooler weather is forecast Thursday through Saturday in the wake of Wednesday's cold front.  The temperature is forecast to warm to the mid-60s Thursday, the upper 60s Friday and to around 70 degrees Saturday.  Low temperatures Friday and Saturday mornings will be in the mid-40s across the Hill Country with upper 40s at most other locations.  Lows Sunday morning will be in the low and mid-50s.

Forecast solutions call for another reinforcing cold front to sweep south across the region next Sunday.  There will be a chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms along the front, followed by dry and cooler conditions Sunday night into Monday.  Rain amounts are forecast to only average around a quarter inch.  Sunday's readings in advance of the front will warm to the middle 70s.

The outlook for next week calls for sunny and very fall-like weather across the region.  High temperatures will be around 70-72 degrees, with low temperatures staying in the 50s.  Long-range forecasts suggest the next chance for rain will occur the weekend of November 10-11.  

Time Change this Weekend

Daylight Saving Time will come to an end this weekend as we return to Central Standard Time.  The time change will officially occur Sunday morning, November 4th, at 2 am.  Remember to set your clocks back one hour before you go to bed Saturday night.  We will get an extra hour of sleep Saturday night.  Sunday's time change means sunrise and sunset will be one hour earlier on Nov. 4 than it was the day before.  This means there will be more daylight in the morning hours and less daylight in the evenings.

Murky Floodwaters Reach Matagorda Bay

A view from one of NASA's polar-orbiting satellites Sunday showed the murky flood waters originating from the recent flood on the Llano River have reached Matagorda Bay and now cover the entire eastern section of the Bay.  The waters there have turned brown and appear to be spreading into the larger, western part of Matagorda Bay.  A small amount can even be see seen flowing out of the old river channel directly into the Gulf of Mexico.  Meanwhile, east Matagorda Bay remains clear.

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Bob
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