Forecast for Central Texas

Friday
Fri
94 °F / 75 °F
0%
Mostly Sunny
Saturday
Sat
93 °F / 75 °F
40%
40% Chance PM Rain Showers and T-Storms
Sunday
Sun
93 °F / 75 °F
40%
40% Chance PM Rain Showers and T-Storms
Monday
Mon
94 °F / 75 °F
0%
Mostly Sunny
Tuesday
Tue
95 °F / 75 °F
0%
Mostly Sunny
Updated July 11, 2025

Rainfall summary
Temperature summary
Humidity summary

Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

Friday, July 11, 2025 3:19 PM

While it would appear our typical summertime weather pattern is trying to take hold, a chance for rain and thunderstorms  will return to the forecast for Saturday and Sunday. Friday’s weather maps showed Texas being situated between ridges of high pressure centered over northwestern Mexico and just off the southeastern U.S. coast. A clockwise flow around the southeastern U.S. ridge is bringing moisture into the eastern half of the state. This weekend, a trough of low pressure dropping south into the southern Plains is expected to draw considerable moisture northwestward across Central Texas, the Hill Country and into West Texas. The weekend atmospheric setup appears favorable for the development of numerous rain showers and thunderstorms beginning in West Texas late Saturday, with the activity spreading southeast into the northern half of the Hill Country on Sunday. At the same time, scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the coastal plains region, with this activity expected to move northwest into parts of Central Texas. A dry and more summer-like pattern is forecast to take shape next week as the eastern ridge of high pressure spreads over Texas.

For Friday and Friday Night

Mostly sunny and dry weather is predicted for the Hill Country and Central Texas regions. For areas along and south of Interstate 10, there will be a 30 percent chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. These rains should diminish around sunset. Totals should only average around a quarter inch. High temperatures are forecast to generally be in the low to mid-90s.

For Saturday

Across the Hill Country, forecasts call for a 30 percent chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, with a 40-50 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening and Saturday night. Rain amounts through sunrise Sunday are forecast to average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches, with a few isolated heavier totals.

Across Central Texas, forecasts call for a 30-40 percent chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening, with just a slight chance for rain after midnight Saturday night. Rain amounts through sunrise Sunday are forecast to average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches.

For the middle Texas coast, forecasts call for a 70 percent chance for showers and scattered  thunderstorms Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon. The chance for rain looks to diminish Saturday evening. Totals through sunrise Sunday are forecast to around a half inch, with isolated higher totals.

High temperatures Saturday are predicted to be upper 80s to low 90.

For Sunday

A fairly widespread area of rain and thunderstorms is forecast to develop across West Texas early Sunday. Forecasts call for this activity to spread southeast into northern and western counties of the Hill Country Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon. Some of this rain could be locally heavy. Elsewhere, scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage Sunday afternoon.

For the Hill Country, there will be a 50 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday evening. Rain amounts through sunrise Monday are forecast to average between 0.5 and 1 inch across the northern half, and be around a half inch across the southern half. Just a slight chance for rain is predicted for Sunday night.

Across Central Texas, there will be a 40-50 percent chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Rain amounts through sunrise Monday are forecast to average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches.

For the middle Texas coast, there will be a 50-60 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening. The rain should diminish late Sunday evening. Rain amounts through sunrise Monday are forecast to average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches

High temperatures Sunday are forecast to be in the low 90s.

The National Weather Service has posted a Flood Watch for the northern Hill Country, the Concho Valley and all of West Texas from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon. Parts of this area could see cumulative totals of 2 to 5 inches Saturday Night through Sunday. Isolated totals over 8 inches will be possible. With soils already still wet from recent rains, additional rain will quickly runoff, and possibly lead to flash flooding.

Flood Watch Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Afternoon for the Counties Highlighted in Green:

flood watch 0711png

National Weather Service Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 am Monday:

rain4cast0711

For Monday

There will be a 30 percent chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the coastal plains region. Mostly sunny and dry weather is predicted for the rest of the region. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low and mid-90s.

Next Tuesday through Friday

Mostly sunny, dry, and warm weather is forecast across the entire region. Daily high temperatures are predicted to be in the mid-90s. Similar conditions are forecast into next weekend.

Tropicl Weather Outlook

Weather conditions are currently quiet across the tropical Atlantic and tropical cyclone development is not forecast for at least the next seven days.

Klotzbach/CSU Team Lower Hurricane Numbers Slightly

On Wednesday, Phil Klotzbach and his forecast team at Colorado State University issued their July update for this year’s hurricane season. The updated outlook lowered the projected number of named storms slightly, from 17 to 16. The outlook calls for 8 hurricanes, with the possibility of 3 major hurricanes.

According to Dr. Klotzbach, the reason for the slight decrease in numbers is due to an observed southwest to northeast area of wind shear that is occurring across the Caribbean Sea. This belt of wind shear is forecast to continue at least trough August. Wind shear tends to dissipate developing and active storms. As of now, it’s unclear if this wind shear will continue through September and October.

klotzjul25

Have a great weekend!

Bob

Previous Blog Entries

Scattered Showers Expected Wednesday and Again this Weekend

Wednesday, July 9, 2025 12:42 PM

As of late Wednesday morning. Doppler radar was showing the development of showers and isolated thunderstorms across the eastern Hill Country, including Burnet and Llano Counties. Other showers were developing across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast. LCRA’s Hydromet gauge located at Smithville, in Bastrop County, recorded 0.35 inches in 15 minutes from one of these passing showers around 11 am.

We’ll be looking at a 40-50 percent chance for more scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the entire region Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. This chance for rain will includes the Kerr County area. A trough of low pressure sinking south out of North Texas along with abundant moisture flowing north from the Gulf is expected to help in the development the rain. Today’s rain is not expected to be as focused nor as heavy as we saw over the holiday weekend. However, a few isolated heavy downpours will be possible. In general, most totals should average under a half inch, but some isolated totals of 1-2 inches will be possible. Totals are forecast to be a little higher across the coastal plains region. With area soils still very wet from recent rains, this additional rain will runoff quickly. Today’s activity is expected to diminish around sunset as temperatures begin to cool.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 am Thursday:

rain4cast0709

The outlook for Thursday and Friday calls for sunny and dry weather as some drier air works into the area. High temperatures are predicted to be in the upper 80s to low 90s. There will be a 30 percent chance for scattered rain showers across the coastal region on Friday.

A chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast this weekend, continuing into Monday as an enhanced area of moisture is drawn into Texas off the Gulf. Forecasts call for a 40-50 percent chance for afternoon and evening rain showers across the region on both days. Heavy rain is not expected. Rain amounts each day are forecast to average close to a quarter inch, with isolated totals to near 1 inch possible. High temperatures will continue to be mostly in the low 90s.

Bob

A Potential for More Heavy Rain Sunday

Sunday, July 6, 2025 12:09 PM

The weak area of low pressure largely responsible for all of the heavy rain across the Hill Country and Central Texas the past few days was centered Sunday morning over north Central Texas. A trough of low pressure in the middle atmosphere stretches southwest from the low, out to near Junction. Across the Hill Country and Central Texas, the atmosphere remains unusually moist and modestly unstable. As temperatures warm Sunday afternoon, rain shower and thunderstorm development is forecast to take place mainly along and to the west of the Interstate 35 corridor. The showers that do develop are predicted to be slow-movers and will have the potential to produce large amounts of rain in short periods of time. Showers and scattered thunderstorms can be expected Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening, with the probability for rain being near 50 percent.

High resolution forecast show potential rain amounts through Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening to be between 1 and 3 inches, with isolated totals to near 7 inches possible. For areas east of Interstate 35, totals through Sunday evening are forecast to remain below a quarter inch.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 am Monday:

rain4cast0706

With area soils currently wet and saturated from recent rains, any additional rain Sunday afternoon will quickly runoff and aggravate ongoing flooding and fast-moving streams. Due to the threat for considerable runoff, the National Weather Service has posted a Flood Watch for the Hill Country and the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor through 7 pm Sunday.

flood watch 0706

Little rain is forecast across the region Sunday night as the remnant low pressure area finally moves away.

For Monday, there will be a 30 percent chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms for areas along and west of I-35 due to lingering moisture. However, the rain is not expected to be as intense of as focused as we’ve seen over the past few days. Rain amounts are forecast to average less than a half inch.

There will be a 30-40 percent chance for more scattered showers and thunderstorms across the entire region Tuesday and Wednesday as an enhanced area of tropical moisture spreads inland from the Gulf. However, heavy rain is not expected. Totals each day are forecast to only average around a quarter inch, or less.

Generally dry and sunny weather is forecast Thursday and Friday, continuing into next weekend as a summer pattern finally returns to the area. The temperature will trend warmer, with highs in the mid and upper 90s.

Bob

Showers With Possible Heavy Rain will Continue through Friday Evening

Friday, July 4, 2025 11:44 AM

An area of low pressure over West Texas (part of the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry) and an unusually moist atmosphere caused the development of heavy to very heavy rain across parts of the Hill Country Thursday night into Friday morning. Some of the highest totals of rain fell over the area between San Angelo, Mason, and San Saba, and also over western Kerr County where totals between 4 and over 12 inches of rain were observed. One of the highest rain totals recorded occurred in northwestern Mason County, where an LCRA Hydromet gauge has recorded a 24-hour total of 15.56 inches( as of 11:30 am).  Here’s a view of the estimated rain falling over the past 24 hours:

NWS Estimate of rain falling between 7 am Thursday and 7 am Friday:

rain4cast0704a
Data courtesy of the NWS West Gulf River Forecast Center

As of late Friday morning, satellite images showed the area of low pressure was still centered over the northern Hill Country. Satellite and radar imagery clearly shows a cyclonic circulation associated with the area of low pressure, but this is not a tropical cyclone. High resolution forecasts call for the area of low pressure to remain somewhat stationary this afternoon, then weaken and slowly drift to the south late Friday afternoon into Friday night. Meanwhile, an unusually moist atmosphere remains in place across the region and atmospheric conditions remain favorable for the development of more moderate to heavy rain across the Hill Country and parts of Central Texas (including the Austin area) this afternoon into this evening. The probability for rain will be near 100 percent across the Hill Country, 50 percent along the I-35 corridor, and near 30 percent at most other locations. The chance for rain is expected to decrease to around 30 percent overnight Friday night.

satpic0704
NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 07/04/2025 11:10 am CDT

The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked the Hill Country region, from Brownwood to Kerrville, with a moderate risk for excessive rainfall this afternoon through 7 am Saturday. Surrounding the moderate risk area, a slight chance for excessive rain covers the Austin/Intestate 35 corridor and the western Hill Country.

excessiverain0704

Rain forecasts show a potential for an additional 1-3 inches of rain across the Hill Country and the Austin/I-35 corridor through Friday night. Isolated totals to near 5 inches will be possible.

The outlook for Saturday calls for a much smaller coverage of rain across the area as the low weakens and a ridge of high pressure over Arizona begins to spread over Texas. Expect a 30 percent chance for rain and thunderstorms cross the Hill Country and the I-35 corridor. Rain amounts  should average less than a half inch.

The outlook for Sunday calls for generally sunny and dry weather, with just a couple of isolated rain showers and thunderstorms.

Have a safe and happy Fourth of July and holiday weekend!

Bob

Dry and Hot Weather for Independence Day Weekend and Next Week

Wednesday, July 2, 2025 3:51 PM

The circulation around a trough of low pressure across the western U.S. and a broad ridge of high pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley region is helping to funnel remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Barry and abundant Gulf moisture north across the western half of Texas. This moisture, combined with weak atmospheric lift, has resulted in the development of showers and scattered thunderstorms across West Texas, the Hill Country, and parts of Central Texas over the past couple of days. The wet and unsettled pattern is forecast to continue through Thursday night. Showers are forecast to diminish across most of our region Friday as a drier and more stable atmosphere spreads in from the east.

For Wednesday and Wednesday Night

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for areas mainly along and west of Interstate 35 Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening as waves of tropical moisture spread to the north. The probability for rain will be near 50 percent across the Hill Country and near 20 percent at most other locations. The chance for rain is expected to diminish across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast after sunset Wednesday evening. Across the Hill Country, there will be a 30 percent chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening, continuing through Wednesday night.

Rain amounts through sunrise Thursday are forecast to generally average around a half inch across the Hill Country. Isolated totals of 1-2 inches will be possible with some of the heavier downpours. Elsewhere, totals should generally average less than a quarter inch.

  • High temperatures Wednesday will include the mid and upper 80s across the Hill Country, the mid-90s across Central Texas, and the low 90s across the coastal plains

For Thursday and Thursday Night

Forecasts call for another good chance for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms across the Hill Country, with the probability for rain remaining near 50 percent. There will be a 40 percent chance for additional showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening and Thursday night.

Meanwhile, a somewhat better chance for rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast for Central Texas compared to Wednesday, as the moisture plume is expected to bend further to the east. The probability for rain will be near 30-40 percent. Across the coastal plains, the probability for rain looks to remain near 20 percent.

Rain amounts Thursday through sunrise Friday are forecast to generally average around a half inch, with isolated higher totals. Across Central Texas, totals are forecast to average between a quarter and a half inch. Across the coastal plains, totals should average less than a quarter inch.

  • High temperatures Thursday are predicted to be in the mid and upper 80s across the Hill Country, and in the low 90s at most other location

For Independence Day and Friday Night

A slight chance for rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast across the Hill Country, Central Texas, and coastal regions, with the probability s being near 20 percent.

  • High temperatures are forecast to be near 90 degrees across the Hill Country, in the mid-90s across Central Texas, and in the low 90s across the coastal plains

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm Friday:

rain4cast0702

Weekend Weather

Mostly sunny, warmer, and rain-free weather is forecast across the region as the ridge of high pressure spreads across Texas from the east.

  • High temperatures are forecast to be in the low 90s across the Hill Country, with mid-90s across Central Texas and the coastal plains

Next Week

Mostly sunny, dry, and hot weather is forecast for next week as the subtropical ridge of high pressure (or heat dome) sets up over northern Mexico and the Desert Southwest. Temperatures will likely trend warmer throughout the week, with triple-digit readings possible by mid-week.

  • High temperatures Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be in the mid-90s across the Hill Country, the mid and upper 90s across Central Texas, and mid-90s across the coastal plains
  • High temperatures Wednesday through Friday are predicted to be in the mid to upper 90s across the Hill Country, near 100/101 degrees across Central Texas, and in the middle 90s towards the coast

The outlook for next weekend calls for continued dry weather with little change in the temperature.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions across the Gulf, the Caribbean Sea and the tropical Atlantic are currently very quiet.

National Hurricane Center forecasters are monitoring the southeastern U.S. Atlantic and eastern Gulf coasts where an an area of low pressure could develop by this weekend along a stalled boundary. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slow development, but its possible a tropical or subtropical depression could form in this region over the weekend or early next week. Should a system develop, it is expected drift northward or northeastward, away from Texas.

NHC forecasters are giving this area a medium, or 40 percent, chance for tropical development over the next seven days.

hurrotlk0702

satpic0702
NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 07/02/2025 3:10 pm CDT

More Saharan Dust Expected Next Week

Another plume of light to moderately dense Saharan dust is forecast to arrive over South Texas Friday and spread inland to cover most of the state this weekend. Satellite images show this to be a rather large plume and it is expected to affect Central and South Texas through at least the middle of next week. It will likely cause a milky white sky and lower visibility.

Wishing everyone a safe and happy Independence Day and holiday weekend!

Bob

Dry Weather and Hotter Temperatures Forecast Next Week

Thursday, June 26, 2025 3:01 PM

Another day of scattered rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast for Central Texas and the middle Texas coast Thursday as an enhanced area of tropical moisture continues to spread northwest from the coast. The probability for rain will near 50 percent. Rain amounts will generally average less than a quarter inch, but a couple of isolated totals to near 1 inch will be possible in some of the stronger storms. The chance for rain will extend into Thursday evening, with the activity ending around sunset.  Unfortunately, little of the rain and thunderstorm activity is expected to spread west of Interstate 35 and into the Hill Country. High temperatures Thursday are forecast to be in the low and mid-90s.

Friday will likely see a smaller coverage of scattered showers and thunderstorms as some drier air tries to spread in from the east. Forecasts call for a 30 percent chance for mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across the coastal plains region, and 20 percent chance for rain across the southern counties of Central Texas. Rain amounts, if any, should average less than a quarter inch.  Friday’s high temperature are again predicted to be in the low and mid-90s.

Drier and slightly warmer weather is forecast across the entire region this weekend. The heat dome, which brought a heat wave to much of the eastern U.S. this week, is predicted to weaken in intensity and shift southwest to the Lower Mississippi Valley this weekend. With the center of the heat dome getting closer to Texas, it is forecast to cause a more stable atmosphere, generally dry conditions, and slightly hotter temperatures. Highs both days are forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, but hold in the low 90s across the coastal plains. Do note some of the forecast solutions call for a small area of enhanced moisture to spread inland along the middle and upper Texas coast on Sunday. This area of increased moisture could cause the development of scattered showers across the coastal plains region Sunday afternoon.

Going into next week, sunny and dry weather and hot temperatures are expected. Forecasts call for the center of the heat dome to slowly spread into eastern Texas out of the Lower Mississippi Valley. While a couple of isolated sea breeze showers will still be possible across the coastal region, no rain is expected elsewhere.

The big news for next week looks to be the trend for hotter temperatures.

  • High temperatures Monday through Thursday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the mid-90s across the coastal plains
  • High temperatures Friday and next weekend are forecast to be near 98-100 degrees across the Hill Country, near 100-102 degrees across Central Texas, and hold in the mid-90s across the coastal plains

Looking into the week of July 7th, dry weather and very hot temperatures are forecast as the center of the heat some sets up over Central Texas.

  • High temperatures are forecast to be near 100 degrees across the Hill Country, near 100-103 degrees across Central Texas, and in the upper 90s across the coastal plains

High temperatures are forecast to lower a couple of degrees late in the week of July 7th as the center of the heat dome shifts west to New Mexico and Arizona.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions are very quiet across the tropical Atlantic and tropical cyclone development is not expected for at least the next seven days.

Plume of Sharan Dust Forecast to Spread into Texas

Satellite images show a large plume of Sharan dust located over the Caribbean Sea that is spreading to the west-northwest. Forecasts call for the leading edge of the dust to reach the Texas coast on Saturday, with the area of dust spreading into Central Texas and the Hill Country on Sunday. The area of dust is predicted to hang around across the area into early next week. A hazy sky can be expected while the area of dust holds in place.

dust2

Bob

Spotty Showers Possible Tuesday and Wednesday. Otherwise, Expect More Sunshine and Heat

Monday, June 23, 2025 2:27 PM

It’s now looking and feeling a lot like summer. There has been very little day to day change in the weather over the past week and this persistent pattern looks to continue for at least the next couple of weeks. Unfortunately, no significant or heavy rain is on the horizon. It appears the summer doldrums have arrived.

The main weather feature affecting our region this week will be a large ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere centered over the Ohio Valley. Texas will be on the western periphery of the ridge. Close enough for continued hot temperatures, but far enough away to allow for a few spotty rain showers and isolated thunderstorms—mainly for areas east of Interstate 35. The first half of the week will likely contain the best chances for spotty showers, with rain chances diminishing late week and this weekend.

For Monday afternoon and Monday night

 There will be a 30 percent chance for isolated rain showers and thunderstorms for areas near and south of Interstate 10. A less than 20 percent chance for spotty showers will extend inland to the Interstate 35 corridor. Rain amounts, if any, should average less than a tenth of an inch. Mostly sunny and hot weather will continue, with highs in the mid-90s. Expect a southerly wind at 10-15 mph with occasional gusts to 25 mph.

For Tuesday and Wednesday

A more widespread coverage of spotty rain showers and isolated thunderstorms is forecast across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast as moisture levels increase off the Gulf. Forecasts call for a small, non-tropical area of low pressure to track inland along the lower Texas/northern Mexican coast on Wednesday. This system is expected to pull and an enhanced area of tropical moisture inland, resulting the development of spotty rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. The probability for rain will range from 50 percent across the coastal plains, to just 20 percent across the I-35 corridor. Few if any of the showers are expected to reach into the Hill Country. Spotty totals to around a tenth of an inch are forecast on both days. High temperatures are forecast to generally be in the mid-90s.

Thursday through the Upcoming Weekend

Mostly sunny and generally dry weather is forecast as the ridge of high pressure over the Ohio Valley slowly expands back to the west and southwest. While a spotty shower or two can’t be ruled out near the coast, no rain is forecast elsewhere. The temperature is predicted to warm slightly, with daily highs generally in the mid and upper 90s. Low 90s are forecast across the coastal plains.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm Monday, 6/30

rain4cast0623

Next Week

Sunny and hot weather is forecast to continue across the region as the center of the ridge of high pressure sets up near the Four Corners. A few spotty rain showers will be possible near the coast, but generally dry weather is forecast elsewhere. With the ridge getting a little stronger, slightly hotter temperatures can be expected. Daily high temperatures are forecast to be in the mid and upper 90s across the Hill Country, the upper 90s across Central Texas, and the mid-90s near the coast. There are indications of daily high temperatures across Central Texas reaching 100 degrees beginning around July 5th.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions remain quiet across the tropical Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.

Out over the central subtropical Atlantic, A low pressure system located more than 600 miles east-northeast of Bermuda is producing gale-force winds (according to satellite data. However, the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are marginally favorable for further development, and an increase in thunderstorm activity could result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm Monday afternoon or Monday night. By Tuesday, this system is expected to encounter unfavorable environmental conditions, ending its opportunity for development. The system is forecast to move northeastward around 10 to 15 mph, remaining over the open central Atlantic.

NHC forecasters are giving this system a medium, 60 percent chance, for tropical development over the next seven days.

hurrotlk0623

Have a great week!

Bob

Continued Hot with Isolated Rain Showers and Thunderstorms into Next Week

Friday, June 20, 2025 2:36 PM

The summer solstice will occur Friday evening at 9:42 pm CDT. It’s no coincidence our weather over the next several days will be very summer-like as we remain under the influence of a broad ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere. Unfortunately, the spring weather pattern, which helped bring numerous waves of rain and storms to our area beginning in late April, appears to have come to an end. Forecasts call for only limited amounts of rain across the area over the next couple of weeks as the summer pattern gets going in earnest. Fortunately, no extreme temperatures are predicted as the center of the dreaded heat dome looks to stay either to the east or to the west of our region for the next couple of weeks.

Friday’s weather maps showed a broad ridge of high pressure covering  the southern and south central U.S. The ridge was centered over northeastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma. Over the next couple of days, the center of the ridge is predicted to shift northeast to the Ohio Valley, and looks to bring the first summer heat wave to much of the eastern and northeastern U.S. Meanwhile, Texas will remain on the western periphery of the ridge, meaning continued sunny and hot weather, with little overall change in the temperature.

Breezy, moist southerly winds are predicted for the next several days due to a moderate pressure gradient. These winds will likely help to push the sea breeze front north across the coastal plains and inland to near the Intestate 35 corridor each afternoon. From Friday afternoon through late next week, a few scattered afternoon and evening rain showers and isolated thunderstorms may accompany the sea breeze as it tracks to the northwest. The probability for rain will be near 30 percent across the coastal plains region, and 20 percent across Central Texas. No rain is forecast across the Hill Country. Rain amounts, if any, are forecast to average less than a quarter inch.

A slightly higher probability for showers and isolated thunderstorms is forecast next Wednesday through Friday as an enhanced area of moisture is expected to spread west off the Gulf. The probability for rain will range from 50 percent across the coastal plains region, to 30 percent along the Interstate 35 corridor. Daily rain amounts are forecast to remain well below a quarter inch. No rain is forecast across the Hill Country.

  • High temperatures this weekend and next week are forecast to be in the low and mid-90s across the Hill Country, in the mid-90s across Central Texas, and be around 90-92 degrees across the coastal plains.

Looking out into the week of June 30th, forecasts call for few changes in the weather pattern. The center of the heat dome is predicted shift back west to the Four Corners region, but it is not expected to set up directly over Texas. There will be a slight chance for scattered afternoon showers for areas along and east of I-35, and staying generally dry for areas to the west. High temperatures are forecast to hold in the mid to upper 90s.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 am Friday, 6/27

rain4cast0620

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions remain quiet across the Atlantic basin and atmospheric conditions appear unfavorable for tropical cyclone development for at least the next seven days.

satpic0620NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 06/20/2025 12:10 pm CDT 

Enjoy this first weekend of summer and stay cool!

Bob

 

A Slight Chance for Rain Forecast the Second Half of the Week

Monday, June 16, 2025 3:17 PM

Sunny and quiet weather conditions are in place as we start off the new week. The trough of low pressure over Oklahoma which helped kick off Sunday’s line of rain and thunderstorms has shifted to the east. At the same time, a large dome of high pressure centered over northern Mexico has spread further to the east since Sunday, creating a more stable atmosphere across much of Texas. Meanwhile, a somewhat unstable atmosphere continues across Deep South Texas, the coastal plains and Southeast Texas. A generally dry weather pattern is forecast across the entire region Tuesday and Wednesday as the ridge of high pressure expands further to the east across Texas.

For Monday and Monday Night

There will be 30 percent chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the coastal plains region Monday afternoon and evening. Widespread or heavy rain is not anticipated. Rain amounts should average less than a quarter inch. Expect high temperatures in the low 90s.

Across Central Texas, a couple of isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening. Totals, if any, should measure less than a quarter inch. Expect a sunny sky with high temperatures in the mid-90s.

Across the Hill Country, expect sunny and dry weather with high temperatures in the low and mid-90s

Tuesday through Thursday

Sunny and dry weather is forecast across the entire region. Expect southerly breezes in the range of 10-15 mph. High temperatures are predicted to be in the mid-90s, with lower 90s towards the coast.

Friday through the Upcoming Weekend

A slight chance for rain will return to the forecast for all areas Friday through Sunday. Forecasts call for a wave of low pressure to push inland across northern Mexico late Thursday and the circulation around the trough is expected to pull higher levels of Gulf moisture inland. This is expected to result in the development of scattered afternoon rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. The probability for rain each day will range from 20 percent across the Hill Country and the I-35 corridor, to near 30 percent in the La Grange area and 40 percent for the coastal plains. Rain amounts each day are forecast to average less than a quarter inch.

High temperatures through the period are forecast to be in the low and mid-90s.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm Next Monday, 06/23

rain4cast0616

Looking out into next week, a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms looks to continue throughout the week. Forecasts call for the center of the heat dome over northern Mexico to shift northeast to the Tennessee and Ohio Valley regions early next week, with the center expected to remain along the East Coast throughout the week. A moist flow off the Gulf into Texas is expected to cause a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms through the end of the month. High temperatures next week are forecast to hold in the low and mid-90s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions remain quiet across the tropical Atlantic and tropical cyclone development is not expected for the next seven days.

Summer Solstice Occurring Friday Night

The summer first day of summer will occur this year on Friday, June 20th at 9:42 pm CDT. As seen from Earth, the Sun will be directly overhead at noon 23.5 degrees north of the equator, at an imaginary line encircling the globe known as the Tropic of Cancer, named for the constellation Cancer the Crab, its northernmost point. The North Pole’s tilt toward the Sun is greatest at the solstice, so this event marks the longest day of the year north of the equator.

Have a good week!

Bob

 

 

Weather Pattern Trending Drier and Warmer

Friday, June 13, 2025 3:04 PM

Weather conditions across the Hill Country and Central Texas are expected to trend drier and a bit warmer this afternoon and through the weekend as this week’s persistent trough of low pressure lifts off to the northeast. At the same time, a ridge of high pressure currently centered over northwestern Mexico is forecast to expand east into the western half of Texas. This will cause the atmosphere across West Texas, the Edwards Plateau, and the Hill Country to become drier and more stable.

Friday afternoon through Sunday

For the Hill Country, a mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky and dry weather is forecast. Expect daily high temperatures to be near 90-92 degrees.

Across Central Texas, there will be just a 20 percent chance for a few isolated to scattered afternoon and evening rain showers and thunderstorms each day. Rain amounts through Sunday are forecast to total less than a half inch. Daily high temperatures are predicted to generally be in the low 90s.

Across the coastal plains, forecasts call for a 40-50 percent chance for mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day as several weak disturbances cause a continued unsettled weather pattern. Rain amounts through Sunday are forecast to generally average between 1 and 2 inches. Some locally heavy downpours will be possible. Daily high temperatures are forecast to be around 90 degrees.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm Monday:

rain4cast0613

For next Monday through Wednesday,  little overall change in the weather pattern is expected. The ridge of high pressure over Mexico is forecast to expand a little further to the east and this is expected to diminish the chance for rain across Central Texas. Meanwhile across the coastal plains region, there will be a 20-30 percent chance for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms due to abundant moisture and the sea breeze front. Rain amounts through Wednesday are forecast to only average around a quarter inch.

  • High temperatures Monday through Wednesday are forecast to be in the mid-90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the low 90s across the coastal plains

Late Next Week into Next Weekend

A daily chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast across the region as the ridge of high pressure retreats to the west and a weak trough of low pressure tracks across the southern Plains states. The probability for rain will range from around 20 percent across the Hill Country, to near 50 percent across the coastal plains. As of now, heavy rain is not expected through this upcoming period, with most totals averaging around a half inch. Expect a partly to mostly cloudy. Daily high temperatures are forecast to generally be in the low and mid-90s.

Looking out in the week of June 23rd, forecasts call for generally dry and warm conditions as the ridge of high pressure returns to the area. Daily high temperatures are predicated to be in the mid-90s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions remain quiet across the tropical Atlantic and tropical cyclone development is not expected during the next seven days.

Rainfall Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning

There were numerous storms with heavy rain across Texas Wednesday night, but most of the heavy rains stayed to the north and south of the Hill Country and Central Texas. Totals of 5-7.5 inches were recorded across the area between New Braunfels and San Antonio and also across most of Matagorda County, resulting in quite a bit of flooding. Nearly a foot of rain was recorded by an observer west of Palacios. Another observer located in northern Calhoun County, near Port Alto recorded over 14 inches!

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Have a great weekend!

Bob