Weather conditions are quiet across Central and South Texas, but a trend towards a wet weather pattern is not far off. Tuesday's weather maps showed a vigorous trough of low pressure located over southern California and northwestern Mexico, moving to the east. Forecast call for the system to track across Texas Wednesday into early Thursday, causing the development of widespread rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. The trough is forecast to exit east on Thursday, allowing dry and sunny weather to return for Friday and Saturday.
This afternoon, the sky will be mostly cloudy as considerable middle and high-level clouds spread over the region in advance of the approaching storm system. High temperatures will generally be near 58-60 degrees. Expect a light southeasterly wind at 5-10 mph.
Light rain showers are forecast to develop across western Texas this evening as moisture begins streaming northeast from the Gulf. The activity should spread east over the Hill Country, Central Texas and the coastal region after midnight. Lows Wednesday morning will be in the low and mid-40s. Southeasterly winds will increase to around 10-15 mph.
For Wednesday and Wednesday night, widespread light to moderate rain showers and even a couple of isolated thunderstorms are predicted. The rain is expected to taper off from west to east between midnight Wednesday night and sunrise Thursday morning as the storm system moves east. Due to limited atmospheric instability, no strong or severe storms are forecast. High temperatures Wednesday will be in the mid and upper 50s. Lows Thursday morning will range from the low and mid-40s west to the mid-50s near the coast.
Rain amounts occurring between Tuesday night and Wednesday night are forecast to be heaviest for locations east of Interstate 35 and lightest across the western and northern Hill Country. National Weather Service rainfall forecasts call for storm totals to be less than a quarter inch across the western Hill Country and be between 0.25 and 0.75 inches across the central and eastern Hill Country. For the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor and locations east, totals should generally average between 0.5 and 1.25 inches.
NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 6 pm Tuesday through 6 pm Friday:
Dry northwesterly winds in the middle and upper atmosphere in the wake of the departing storm system will cause sunny, dry and mild weather conditions Thursday afternoon through Saturday.
- High temperatures Thursday will generally be in the low 60s, while being near 70 degrees towards the coast.
- Lows Friday morning will include the low and mid-30s Hill Country, be around 38-40 degrees central with low 40s towards the coast.
- High temperatures Friday will be in the low and mid-60s
- Lows Saturday morning will range from the mid-30s west to the low 40s near the coast.
- High temperatures Saturday will be in the mid and upper 60s.
Forecasts call for the development of a few light rain showers across the Austin/Central Texas region and the middle Texas coast late Saturday through midday Sunday when a small trough of low pressure tracks northeast out of northern Mexico. Rain amounts should be low, with most totals averaging less than a quarter inch. Sunday's sky is predicted to be partly cloudy as the trough moves off to the east. High temperatures Sunday will generally be in the mid and upper 60s.
Looking ahead to next week, forecasts call for a chance for rain to development next Tuesday into Wednesday when another large trough of low pressure sinks southeast into Texas out of the southern Rockies. Expect a mostly sunny sky on Monday, followed by a chance for rain showers late Tuesday into Wednesday. Early thoughts on rain amounts with this system are for totals to generally average between 0.25 and 0.50 inches. Dry and sunny weather is forecast next Thursday and Friday. Temperatures look to be fairly mild the first half of the week, with highs in the 60s and lows in 40s. Readings should trend cooler late week behind the cold front, with highs falling to the 50s.
Long-range forecasts still don't show any true arctic air spreading into our region over through early February. An Unusually Mild January
As you may have noticed, temperatures have been unusually mild so far this month. Temperatures for the first 20 days of the month have generally averaged between 6 and 7 degrees above normal! Austin-Camp Mabry has not even recorded a freeze so far during the month. At Camp Mabry, the temperature has averaged 7.3 degrees above normal. Month to date, January 2020 ranks as the 7th mildest January on record.
Have a good week.