An unsettled weather pattern has taken shape across Central and South Texas over the past couple of days as the persistent summertime ridge of high pressure has pulled north to the Plains states and the central Rockies. South of the ridge across Texas, winds in the middle and upper atmosphere have turned out of the east-northeast. This is allowing moisture and occasional atmospheric disturbances to spread west across the region, leading to the development of scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Forecast solutions indicate this general pattern will hold in place through the weekend and early next week.
This afternoon, expect a partly cloudy sky. There will be a 30-40 percent chance for the development of scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region as temperatures warm into the 90s. Rain amounts look to average around a quarter inch, or less. Most of today's rain activity should diminish around sunset. High temperatures will generally be in the low and middle 90s. Expect a northeasterly wind at around 5-10 mph.
For Saturday through Monday Sunday, there will be an increased chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the region as a large area of tropical moisture and a weak area of low pressure spreads west out of the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, a weak cold front is forecast to sag south and stall across North Central Texas. The combination of these features will cause a mostly cloudy sky along with a 50-60 percent chance for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms. The most favorable period for rain and thunderstorms will be from late morning through early evening on all three days. Rainfall is forecast to average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches each day, with isolated totals of 1-2 inches possible. High temperatures will generally be in the low 90s. Expect an east to northeasterly wind at around 5-10 mph.
According to the National Weather Service, rain totals this afternoon through Tuesday are forecast to generally average between 0.5 and 1.5 inches. Isolated heavier totals will be possible.NWS rainfall forecast for the period 7 pm Friday through 7 pm Monday:
The chance for rain is forecast to decrease beginning Tuesday as the large ridge of high pressure over the Plains state shifts more to the east and southeast. This will decrease but not totally shut off the flow of tropical moisture spreading inland off the Gulf. With that in mind, expect a partly cloudy sky and a slight (20 percent) chance for scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Friday. High temperatures will be in the mid-90s Tuesday, with mid to upper 90s Wednesday through Friday. Daily rainfall should average less than a quarter inch.
Friday's forecast solutions indicate a slight chance for rain showers and thunderstorms will also continue next weekend as our region remains under a moist flow off the Gulf of Mexico. High temperatures should continue in the mid to upper 90s. Generally dry and hot weather is forecast the week of July 16th, with high temperatures around 98-100 degrees.Tropical Weather Update
Hurricane Beryl developed from a strong tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic on Thursday. As of 10 am CDT Friday, the eye of Beryl was centered about 1045 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. Beryl is moving toward the west near 15 mph. A faster westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to begin over the weekend and continue through early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles over the weekend and cross the island chain late Sunday or Monday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Beryl is expected to still be a hurricanewhen it reaches the Lesser Antilles late Sunday or Monday. Weakening is expected once Beryl reaches the eastern Caribbean Sea on Monday, but the system may not degenerate into an open trough until it reaches the vicinity of Hispaniola and the central Caribbean Sea.
Beryl is a compact hurricane. Hurricane-force winds only extend outward up to 10 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles.
As of now, Beryl is forecast to weaken to an open wave of low pressure around Tuesday or Wednesday and does not pose a threat to the western Gulf of Mexico.
National Hurricane Center forecasters are also monitoring an area of showers and thunderstorms that are associated with a well-defined low pressure system located a few hundred miles southeast of the North Carolina coast. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next couple of days while the system moves slowly northwestward and stalls or meanders near the coast of North Carolina. NHC forecasters are giving this system a 70 percent chance for tropical development over the next 48 hours and an 80 percent chance for development over the next 5 days.
Weather conditions are quiet across the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea and there are no systems in place which pose a threat for tropical development over the next 5 days.Aphelion
The Earth is at the aphelion of its orbit today, reaching its farthest distance from the Sun for the year: 3% farther than at perihelion in January.New Moon
New moon will occur next Thursday, July 12th at 9:47 pm CDT.