Forecast for Central Texas

Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Monday
Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
76 °F / 52 °F 82 °F / 64 °F 90 °F / 62 °F 91 °F / 64 °F 78 °F / 53 °F
76 ° / 52 ° 82 ° / 64 ° 90 ° / 62 ° 91 ° / 64 ° 78 ° / 53 °
50%
Sky Becoming Partly Cloudy Mostly Sunny Mostly Sunny Mostly Sunny 50%Chance Rain/T-Storms. Cooler
Updated October 17, 2019

Reports from LCRA’s Hydromet
Rainfall summary
Temperature summary
Humidity summary

Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

A Tropical Cyclone Appears to be Organizing in the Western Gulf of Mexico.
Thursday, October 17, 2019 11:16 AM


A strong tropical disturbance located this morning over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico appears to be getting better defined and better organized.  This disturbances is forecast to merge with a second area of low pressure located along a cold front over the northern and northwestern Gulf of Mexico over the next 24 hours.  This large low pressure system with gale force winds and at least some tropical characteristics is then expected to move northeast over the next 36-48 hours, affecting the northern Gulf states.  Based on this scenario, the National Hurricane Center is initiating advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone 16.  Do note this system is forecast to move to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico on Friday and not have any direct impact on Texas weather or the Texas coast.
 
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RAMMB-CIRA 10:20 am CDT 10/17/2019 

As of 10 am CDT, the tropical disturbance was centered about 140 miles east of Tampico, Mexico.  The system was moving toward the north near 8 mph.  A turn toward the northeast is expected this afternoon or tonight, and a northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected on Friday and Saturday.  On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the northern Gulf coast, somewhere between southeastern Louisiana and the eastern Florida Panhandle Friday and Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.  The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or subtropical storm later today or tonight, with slow strengthening then expected through Friday night. 

Along the middle Texas coast, north to northeasterly winds are forecast to increase to around 15-20 knots, with gusts to 25 knots this afternoon through midday Friday.  Tides are forecast to continue about 1 to 1.5 feet above normal (1 foot inundation, above ground level) through early next week.  The water is expected to reach the dunes during peak high tide.

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Bob

 

Previous Blog Entries

Forecasters Monitoring Developments in the Gulf. Showers and Thunderstorms Forecast Tuesday Night.
Tuesday, October 15, 2019 4:47 PM

A broad trough of low pressure is currently producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southern Yucatan peninsula, southeastern Mexico, Belize, and northern Guatemala. By late Wednesday, the disturbance is forecast to emerge over the Bay of Campeche and gradually turn northward.  National Hurricane Center forecasters indicate environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development Thursday and Friday when the system is located over the western Gulf of Mexico.  The Hurricane Center is giving this system a 40 percent chance for development over the next 5 days.
 
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RAMMB-CIRA 10/15/2019 3:10 pm CDT

An amplifying upper level trough of low pressure is forecast to approach Texas by late this weekend into early next week and this feature should force any tropical system that forms toward the north and then northeast, away from the Texas coast.  The latest forecast guidance calls for the tropical system to move east across the west-central then north-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend.  It would be extremely rare for a tropical system to impact the Texas coast this late into the hurricane season and the upcoming upper air pattern suggests any western Gulf of Mexico system should steer more toward the central or eastern US Gulf coast.

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Forecasters will be closely monitoring weather developments across the eastern Hill Country and Central Texas from late Tuesday and evening when a wave of low pressure tracks east out of West Texas.  High resolution forecasts call for an area of rain and thunderstorms to develop across the eastern Hill Country in the late afternoon, with the area of rain and storms spreading east-southeast to the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor and areas to the southeast this evening.  The atmosphere will be structured in such a way that a couple of these thunderstorms may become strong to possibly severe.  The primary severe weather threats will be strong/gusty winds and small hail.  A few spots could receive some locally heavy rain.  Do note that widespread severe weather is not anticipated.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area north of a line stretching from Bandera to Austin, to College Station under a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms through late tonight.

Another period of rain and thunderstorms is forecast to occur between late evening and sunrise Wednesday when a strong cold front surges south out of North Texas.  The front is expected to reach the northern Hill Country by about 10/11 pm and the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor between 1 am and 3 am.  The front should move across the coastal plains between 3 am and 7 am.  Forecasts call for a widespread line of rain showers and thunderstorms to develop along and just behind the cold front as it sinks to the south.  The rain is predicted to taper off from north to south after sunrise Wednesday morning.  Rain amounts through Wednesday morning are forecast to generally average between 0.5 and 1 inch, with some isolated totals to near 2 inches possible.

Wednesday's weather is shaping up to be mostly sunny, breezy and much cooler.  High temperatures are expected to be near 70 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and in the mid-70s towards the coast.  There will be a strong northerly breeze at 10-20 mph throughout the day.  Lows Thursday morning will include the upper 40s across the Hill Country, the low and mid-50s across Central Texas and the upper 50s towards the coast.  High temperatures will be in the low 70s Thursday, warming to the low 80s on Friday.
A Chance for Rain and Storms Tuesday into Wednesday. Turning Cooler Wednesday.
Monday, October 14, 2019 3:29 PM

The unusually cool air which spread into Texas Friday behind a strong cold front has now exited to the northeast.  In its place, a flow off the Gulf of Mexico has brought the return of warmer and more humid air.  Monday's weather maps showed winds in the middle and upper atmosphere flowing from west to east across the southern US thanks to a large trough of low pressure along the West Coast and a ridge of high pressure located over the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea.  The large ridge of high pressure responsible for the extended summer pattern has finally weakened and shifted southeast. 

Late morning satellite images showed a large area of clouds covering most of Texas.  These clouds are the result of considerable Pacific moisture being carried east along the mid and upper-level winds and moisture spreading north in the lower atmosphere.  Our sky is expected to stay mostly cloudy to cloudy today through Tuesday as additional moisture spreads over the area.  Today's analysis showed several weak disturbances embedded in the westerly wind flow tracking east out of northern Mexico.  These disturbances have been causing the development of widespread light rain showers across much of West Texas, including the northern and western Hill Country overnight and this morning.  Rain amounts have generally only totaled a few hundredths of an inch.

For this afternoon, occasional light rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast across the entire region as additional disturbances move across the area.  The highest probability for rain will be across the northern Hill Country and the middle Texas coast, while just a slight chance for rain is predicted across Central Texas.  For locations that do see rain, totals are forecast to average around a quarter inch or less, with isolated totals to around a half inch possible.  Afternoon temperatures will range from the upper 70s north, to the middle 80s across Central Texas to near 88-90 degrees across the coastal plains.  Just a slight chance for light rain is forecast Monday night.  Lows Tuesday morning will range from the upper 60s west to the mid-70s near the coast.

On Tuesday, there will be a slight chance for rain showers across the area in the morning.  However, the chance for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms looks to increase to 30-40 percent in the afternoon as the trough along the West Coast moves into the Desert Southwest.  Some of these storms could become strong, producing gusty winds and even some small hail.  Tuesday's temperature is forecast to warm to around 90 degrees.

Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, the probability for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms is forecast to increase to around 60-70 percent when a cold front sinks south out of northwest Texas.  The front is predicted to reach the northern Hill Country Tuesday evening, with the front tracking southeast overnight and moving off the coast after sunrise Wednesday.  With a very moist air mass in place, forecasts are calling for general totals in the range of 0.5 to 1 inch.  Isolated totals to near 2 inches will also be possible.  Lows Wednesday morning will range from the upper 50s across the Hill Country to the low 60s across Central Texas to the upper 60s near the coast.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Monday through 7 pm Wednesday:

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Wednesday's weather is expected to start off cloudy, with a slight chance for a few rain showers across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions.  There will be a 50 percent chance for rain and thunderstorms across the coastal plains.  The chance for rain will diminish and the sky should become mostly sunny across the Hill Country and Central Texas Wednesday afternoon.  A few shows are expected to linger across the coastal plains through late afternoon.  Wednesday's temperatures will be cooler, with highs generally in the upper 60s to low 70s.  Expect a breezy north wind at 10-15 mph through late afternoon.  The sky will be partly cloudy Wednesday night.  Lows Thursday morning will include the upper 40s across the Hill Country, the low and mid-50s across Central Texas and the upper 50s across the coastal plains.

The sky will be partly cloudy sky across the region Thursday through Saturday.  High temperatures in the mid-70s Thursday should warm into the low 80s Friday and into the upper 80s on Saturday.  Lows Friday morning will mainly be in the mid-50s.  Lows Saturday and Sunday mornings will be in the 60s.  High temperatures Sunday will again be in the upper 80s.

Today's forecast solutions call for a vigorous trough of low pressure to sink southeast out of the northern Rockies on Sunday.  The trough is forecast to reach the southern Plains Monday, then exit to the northeast.  As the system approaches Texas on Sunday, considerable moisture will be drawn north from the Gulf.  There will be a 40 percent chance for rain showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, with the probability for rain increasing Sunday night into Monday morning.  The chance for rain looks to end from west to east Monday afternoon behind a fairly strong cold front.  Rain amounts are currently forecast to average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches, but these totals could go higher as the forecast models get a better handle on the moisture return.

Monday's cold front will bring cooler temperatures that should last through much of the week.  High temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s to near 80 degrees, with low temperatures mostly in the 50s, with some 40s across the Hill Country.  Dry and sunny weather is forecast next Tuesday through Friday.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions are currently quiet across the tropical Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.  However, forecasters are keeping a close watch on an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Honduras, and parts of Central America.  This disturbed weather is associated with a broad area of low pressure located inland over northwestern Honduras. This system will move west-northwestward across southern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days, preventing tropical cyclone formation during that time.  By Wednesday, however, the low is forecast to emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche where conditions could become a little more conducive for some further organization to occur.  NHC forecasters are only giving this system a 20 percent chance for development over the next 5 days.  Should something develop over the Bay of Campeche, forecasts call for the system to track northwest toward the northeastern coast of Mexico late week.  

NHC is monitoring a tropical wave accompanied by a small low pressure system located over the central tropical Atlantic.  This system is producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Although thunderstorm activity has continued to increase and become a little better organized since yesterday, upper-level winds are expected to be only marginally conducive for significant development of this system over the next day or two while it moves westward at around 15 mph.  By late Wednesday as the wave approaches the Windward Islands, upper-level winds are forecast to become quite hostile for any further development.

The Hurricane Center is also monitoring a  large low pressure system located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean, less than 300 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.  This system is moving slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.  Satellite imagery and surface wind data indicate that low has become better defined since yesterday, and shower and thunderstorm activityis showing increasing signs of organization.  If this recent development trend continues, then a tropical depression or a tropical storm is likely to form later tonight or early Tuesday while the low moves generally northwestward toward the Cabo Verde Islands.  Strong upper-level winds should prevent any further development by midweek.  NHC forecasters are giving this system a 90 percent chance for development over the next 5 days.

Finally, the National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on post-tropical storm Melissa, located over the northwestern Atlantic, roughly 405 miles south-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.  The system has lost its tropical characteristics as it is moving off to the east at 23 mph.

Bob 

 

 

Warmer Temperatures Returning Early Next Week. Chances for Rain in the Forecast through Late Next Week.
Friday, October 11, 2019 4:25 PM


A powerful cold front pushed through the region overnight, bringing some of the coldest temperatures observed since last April.  The front has produced one of the biggest 24-hour temperature changes on record: from the mid and upper 90s on Thursday to the mid and upper 40s today.   The chilly temperatures, combined with a stiff north wind are definitely making it feel like fall or even early winter.  Areas of rain showers and thunderstorms developed along and behind the cold front.  According to LCRA's Hydromet, totals generally ranged between a quarter and a half inch across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and were less than a quarter inch across the coastal plains.  Surface reports and Doppler radar estimates showed the rain was heavier across northern Blanco, northwestern Travis, northern Williamson and northern Burnet Counties, where 24-hour were between 1 and 2 inches.

NWS estimate of rain falling between 3 pm Thursday and 3 pm Friday:

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As of early this afternoon, the cold front had cleared the coast and was pushing southeast into the Gulf of Mexico.  A large dome of Canadian high pressure located over the southern Rockies is sinking southeast behind the cold front, bringing additional cool air and causing gusty winds.   Radar showed some patchy light rain showers occurring behind the cold front over the Hill Country and parts of Central Texas.  These light showers are forecast to persist through late afternoon, then diminish.  Afternoon satellite images showed a widespread area of clouds covering Central, South and East Texas.  These clouds are expected to hold in place overnight and into Saturday morning.  The clouds should decrease from west to east Saturday afternoon.

With widespread clouds in place, the temperature is not expected to fall very much overnight.  Lows Saturday morning are forecast to be around 40-45 degrees across the Hill Country, be near 45-48 degrees across Central Texas and be around 48-50 degrees across the coastal plains.  Expect northerly winds at 10-15 mph Friday evening, with the wind speeds decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.

Widespread clouds Saturday morning will give way to a mostly sunny sky Saturday afternoon.  High temperatures will generally be in the mid and upper 60s. Expect a light northeast wind at 5-10 mph.

Forecasts call for the sky to become cloudy Saturday evening and remain cloudy Saturday night through Sunday morning when a weak trough of low pressure tracks northeast out of Mexico.  This system will cause a slight chance for a few spotty light rain showers between midnight Saturday night and noon on Sunday.  Rain amounts, if any, should only total a few hundredths of an inch.  Lows Sunday morning will range from the upper 40s across the Hill Country to the low and mid-50s across Central Texas and the coastal plains.  High temperatures Sunday will in the mid and upper 70s.

The sky is forecast to become mostly cloudy Monday in advance of another weak trough of low pressure tracking northeast out of Mexico.  This system will cause a slight chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region Monday afternoon and Monday night.  This will be followed by an increased chance for rain showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday night when a stronger disturbance tracks east out of New Mexico.  The probability for rain will be near 40-50 percent.  Rain amounts are forecast to generally be between 0.5 and 1 inch.  High temperatures Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be mostly in the mid and upper 80s.  Low temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

A Pacific cold front is predicted to sweep east across the state Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, bringing drier and slightly cooler air.  Under a partly cloudy sky, high temperatures Wednesday should be around 80 degrees.  Lows Thursday morning will be in the low and mid-60s.

A mostly cloudy sky is forecast next Thursday when yet another weak disturbance is forecast to track east out of Mexico.  There will be a slight chance for rain Thursday and Thursday night.  However, rain amounts should be quite low—around a tenth of an inch.  The sky will become partly cloudy on Friday.  High temperatures are forecast to be in the low 80s Thursday, warming to around 88-90 degrees on Friday.

The outlook for next weekend calls for partly cloudy and warm conditions with high temperatures mostly in the mid and upper 80s.  Lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

A Nor'easter centered southeast of New England has now been designated Subtropical Storm Melissa.  As of 4 pm CDT, the center of Melissa was located about 210 miles south of Nantucket, Massachusetts.  Melissa is moving toward the south-southwest near 3 mph.  A turn toward the east is forecast tonight followed by an increase in forward speed Saturday.  This motion will contine through Monday.  On the forecast track, the center of Melissa will move away from the east coast of the United States.  Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts.  Gradual weakening is expected over the next couple of days, and Melissa is forecast to lose its subtropical characteristics by Saturday night.

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RAMMB-CIRA 10/11/2019 1:40 pm CDT

National Hurricane Center forecasters are keeping a close watch on the western Caribbean Sea this weekend where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form .  This system is forecast to move westward toward Central America early next week, and some development is possible if the low remains over water while moving near the coasts of Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize.

NHC forecasters are also monitoring the far eastern tropical Atlantic where a tropical wave, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure, is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Sunday. Although tropical cyclone formation in this area is climatologically unlikely this late in the hurricane season, some development of this system is possible early next week while the system moves generally northwestward near or over the Cabo Verde Islands.

Have a good weekend.

Bob

Extreme Drought Conditions Increasing Across the Hill Country and Central Texas.
Thursday, October 10, 2019 4:43 PM

The combination of summer-like temperatures and very little rainfall has caused drought conditions to grow worse across the Hill Country and Central Texas.  Thursday's updated National Drought Monitor for Texas showed conditions along the Interstate 35 corridor, between New Braunfels and Temple, including Austin, are now considered to be in "extreme" drought, the 3rd of four levels of drought.  Extreme drought were also indicated across Llano County and the western Hill Country between Junction, Eldorado, San Angelo and Brownwood.  Surrounding these areas of extreme drought, the monitor showed widespread "severe" drought covering most of the rest of the Hill Country and Central Texas.  The southeastern half of Fayette Country and most of Colorado County were shown to be in moderate drought.  Severe drought is the second level of drought, while moderate drought is the first level of drought.  Wharton and Matagorda Counties were shown to be drought free thanks to the recent rains from tropical storm Imelda.

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For Austin and Travis County, this week's "extreme drought" depiction is the first since October 2015.

Looking at how much the rainfall has deviated from normal over the past 90-days, totals across most of the region are running between 4 and 6 inches below normal.  But for areas along the Interstate 35 corridor and east, the totals have been running between 6 and 8 inches below normal.  Combine these large rainfall deficits with the hottest September and second hottest August on record, and it becomes pretty apparent why drought conditions have deteriorated so quickly over the past couple of months.
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Data courtesy of the National Weather Service West Gulf River Forecast Center

The month of October is typically the wettest month of fall and often the second or third wettest month of the entire year.  While parts of the Hill Country received some rain this past Sunday night, the rest of the region has seen little to no rain so far this month as the dry fall weather pattern persists.  Thursday's forecast data indicates Friday's cold front will bring some showers and thunderstorms to our region.  However, rain amounts are expected to total only around a quarter inch, or less.  Another chance for rain is predicted for next Tuesday and Tuesday night when a second cold front will move through the region.  Rain amounts are again forecast to be low; generally averaging between a quarter and a half inch.

The latest forecasts covering the last two weeks of October are calling for a weather pattern that will be favorable for near normal to possibly slightly above normal rainfall across Central and South Texas.  The forecasts indicate several systems will be tracking east out of the Pacific, with each one having the potential to produce some showers across our region.

While I am still not seeing the development of any widespread, soaking rains over the next few weeks, the latest forecasts are encouraging for at least some drought relief.

Bob
  
Summer-Like Temperatures Returning Wednesday and Thursday Before a Big Cooldown Friday.
Tuesday, October 8, 2019 4:56 PM


It finally felt like autumn Tuesday morning as temperatures cooled into the 50s and 60s.  For most locations, these readings were the coolest since that short spell of unusually cool weather in late July.  Generally speaking, low temperatures included the upper 40s to mid-50s across the Hill Country, the upper 50s to low 60s across Central Texas and between 68 and 70 degrees across the coastal plains.  According to LCRA's Hydromet, the lowest observed temperature was a very cool 44 degrees at gauges in northeastern Menard and southern Callahan Counties.  In Austin, the temperature dropped to 63 degrees at Camp-Mabry's and 60 degrees at Austin-Bergstrom Airport.

A visible satellite image from Tuesday afternoon showed a mostly clear sky across Texas as a bubble of Canadian high pressure held over the region.  We'll see more pleasant temperatures Monday night into Tuesday morning, with readings falling to the upper 50s to low 60s.
 
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RAMMB-CIRA 10/08/2019 2:10 pm CDT

The cool, fall temperatures will unfortunately depart on Wednesday, allowing summer-like readings to make a return.  Southerly breezes will increase to 10-15 mph Wednesday, continuing through Thursday.  With warmer and more humid air spreading north from the Gulf, the temperature is expected to warm to the low 90s Wednesday and to the middle 90s on Thursday.  A few locations, including Austin, may even see the upper 90s.

Tuesday's forecast data continues to call for a strong cold front to sweep south across our region on Friday.  The cold front is forecast to reach the Hill Country around sunrise Friday, moving across Central Texas mid to late morning.  The front should move across the coastal plains early Friday afternoon.  An area of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms is predicted to develop along and just behind the cold front when it moves across the area.  The rain is forecast to taper off from north to south Friday afternoon.  Rain amounts will be low, only totaling around a quarter inch or less.

Breezy and much cooler weather is expected Friday in the wake of the cold front.  High temperatures will range from the low and mid-60s across the Hill Country to the upper 60s across Central Texas to the low 70s across the coastal plains.

Sunny and very fall-like weather will be in place this weekend when a large dome of Canadian high pressure builds south into Texas.  Lows Saturday morning will include the low and mid-40s across the Hill Country, the upper 40s across Central Texas and the low to mid 50s towards the coast.  Lows Sunday morning will range from the upper 40s west to the mid-50s towards the coast.  High temperatures will be near 70 Saturday and close to 80 degrees on Sunday.

Looking out to next week, warmer temperatures will return again Monday and Tuesday, with highs around 88-90 degrees.  A few showers will be possible Tuesday when a Pacific cold front pushes through the area. However, rain amounts look to be quite low.  Dry and mild weather is forecast next Wednesday through Friday.  Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, with lows in the 60s.

Tuesday's longer-range data indicates a somewhat wetter weather pattern may develop the weekend of October 19th, when a large trough of low pressure approaches from the west.  Stay tuned for more details as the models get a better handle on this development.

Bob

Not as Hot this Week as Summer Transitions to Fall. Still No Significant Rain on the Horizon.
Monday, October 7, 2019 3:42 PM


Despite the temperature being close to 100 degrees over the weekend, our extended summer weather pattern looks to finally be coming to an end.  Autumn's first cold front pushed into Texas on Sunday and as of midday Monday, the front was pushing south across South Texas.  An area of Canadian high pressure spreading in behind the front was bringing noticeably cooler temperatures.  This appears to be the first in a series of cold fronts that will push through are over the coming weeks that will make our weather feel more fall-like.  An area of rain showers and thunderstorms developed across the Hill Country Sunday evening as the front moved through the area.  Most totals were generally around a quarter inch, but a corridor of totals to near 1 inch occurred from near Junction to Mason, to north of Goldthwaite. Another pocket of heavier rain occurred across the western Hill Country over Schleicher and Sutton Counties where an LCRA Hydromet gauge near Sonora measured just over 2 inches of rain.  Unfortunately, the rain diminished as it and the cold front moved into a much more stable atmosphere over Central Texas.

NWS Estimate of Rain Falling Between 3 pm Sunday and 3 pm Monday:

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Early this afternoon, the cold front stretched from Houston to near Beeville to just north of Laredo.  The front is expected to push off the coast and into the Gulf of Mexico later this afternoon as a dome of Canadian high pressure sinks south out of the southern Plains.  No additional rain is forecast as the atmosphere has become too dry and stable.  Clouds will decrease and the sky will become mostly sunny across the region this afternoon.  Expect a northerly wind at 10-15 mph, with occasional gusts to 25 mph this afternoon through tonight.  Today's temperature is forecast to warm only to the upper 70s across the Hill Country, to the low 80s across Central Texas and the mid-80s across the coastal plains.  Readings Monday night will be pleasantly cool.  Lows Tuesday morning will include the low 50s across the Hill Country, the upper 50s to 60 degrees across Central Texas and the low 60s across the coastal plains.

A sunny, dry and stable weather pattern is forecast Tuesday through Thursday in the wake of today's cold front.  Mild temperatures are forecast Tuesday and Tuesday night, but warmer readings look to return Wednesday and Thursday as winds become southerly.

  • High temperatures Tuesday will be in the low and mid-80s.
 
  • Lows Wednesday morning will include the upper 50s across the Hill Country, the upper 50s to low 60s across Central Texas and the low 60s across the coastal plains.
 
  • High temperatures Wednesday will generally be around 90-92 degrees.
 
  • Lows Thursday morning will be in the upper 60s across the Hill Country and in the low 70s at most other locations.
 
  • High temperatures Thursday will be in the low and mid-90s.
 
A second and stronger cold front is forecast to reach the Texas Panhandle Thursday afternoon.  The front is expected to track across the Hill Country late Thursday night, moving across Central Texas and the coastal plains region on Friday.  The atmospheric set up along and behind this front is looking to be a bit more favorable for the development of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms, compared to this morning's front.  Forecasts call for a 30 percent chance for rain Thursday night and a 40 percent chance for rain throughout the day on Friday.  The chance for rain should diminish Friday evening.  Unfortunately, rain amounts are not expected to be very heavy, with most totals being around a quarter inch.  A few heavier totals will be possible.  A large dome of Canadian high pressure will build in behind the front, bringing much cooler temperatures that will last throughout the weekend.  The sky will be sunny Saturday and Sunday.

  • Low temperatures Saturday morning will include the middle 40s across the Hill Country, the mid and upper 40s across Central Texas and the lower 50s towards the coast.
 
  • High temperatures Saturday will be near 70-72 degrees

  • Lows Sunday morning will generally be in the upper 40s, with lower 50s towards the coast.
 
  • High temperatures Sunday will be in the mid-70s.
 
The outlook for next week indicates the weather will be sunny and dry.  The summertime ridge of high pressure will remain out of the weather picture.  High temperatures are forecast to be mostly in the upper 80s to low 90s Monday and Tuesday.  Readings are forecast to cool to the middle 80s Wednesday through Friday behind a weak cold front.  Low temperatures will be mostly in the mid and upper 60s.  No widespread or soaking rains are forecast over the next 2-week period.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions are quiet, with no organized storms in place at the current time.  However, National Hurricane Center forecasters are monitoring 3 areas of disturbed weather, but none of these systems pose a threat to the Gulf of Mexico.

A non-tropical low pressure system is located over the central Atlantic Ocean, between Bermuda and the Azores, and is producing gale-force winds to the north of its center.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for the low to acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics during the next day or two, and this system could become a tropical or subtropical storm on Tuesday or Wednesday while it moves slowly westward.  Upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for further development by Wednesday night.

Showers and thunderstorms located over the western Atlantic, between the southeastern coast of the United States and Bermuda, are associated with a trough of low pressure.  This system is forecast to move northwestward and a non-tropical low pressure area is expected to form when the system interacts with a frontal boundary in a couple of days.  The low could acquire some subtropical characteristics later in the week while it meanders off the east coast of the United States.

A trough of low pressure extending from the Straits of Florida, northeastward across the southern Florida peninsula, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Some slight development of

this system is possible on Tuesday when it moves over the far western Atlantic.  The disturbance is forecast to merge with a frontal boundary and developing low off the east coast of the United States by Wednesday, and no further development is anticipated after that time.  Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of the southern Florida peninsula during the next day or so. 

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RAMMB-CIRA 10/07/2019 12:20 pm CDT

Bob

Summer Holding on through the Weekend but Fall Weather will Finally Arrive Monday.
Friday, October 4, 2019 5:06 PM


Although the calendar says it's October, a summer-like weather pattern remains in place across Central and South Texas.  But it finally appears our extended summer pattern will be breaking down late this weekend, allowing cooler and more fall-like temperatures to spread over our area next week.  Friday's weather maps showed a massive heat ridge stretching from northern Mexico to the middle Atlantic States.  This ridge has been the primary cause of our extended summer pattern.  To the north of the ridge, a very active jet stream is flowing from west to east across the northern states.  Over the next few days, strong troughs of low pressure flowing along the jet are forecast to weaken and a finally displace the heat ridge away from Texas.  This development will allow cooler air to spill south out of Canada and put an end to our record-breaking heat.

One of the first disturbances to hammer away at the ridge is currently tracking east across the northern Plains states.  A cold front associated with this trough has made its way south into North and West Texas, but the front has stalled out and won't likely make it any further south.  Forecasts indicate there may be just enough moisture convergence south of the front to produce a few isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the region this afternoon and evening.  The probability for rain will only be 20 percent.  Otherwise, weather conditions will be mostly sunny, hot and humid.  Today's temperature should generally reach the middle to upper 90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and the low 90s across the coastal plains.  Expect a light east wind at 5-10 mph.

Mostly sunny, hot and humid weather will continue Saturday through Sunday as today's cold front returns to the north.  Little, if any rain can be expected.  The main story will be the heat, with high temperatures continuing in the middle 90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and in the low 90s across the coastal plains.  Light winds will continue through the weekend.

A big change in the weather looks to occur after midnight Sunday night when a fairly strong cold front pushes south out of North Texas.  The front is forecast to cross the northern Hill Country shortly after midnight, reaching the Austin area about 3-4 hours later.  The front is forecast to reach the coastal plains around sunrise Monday, pushing into the Gulf waters Monday morning into Monday afternoon.  Forecasts indicate there will be just enough moisture in place to aid in the development of a skinny line of rain showers and thunderstorms along the cold front as it pushes south out of North Texas.  The probability for rain at any given location will be near 30-40 percent.  The chance for rain should end quickly behind the front and most rain amounts staying well below a quarter inch.  Clouds should decrease and the sky become mostly sunny Monday morning in the wake of the cold front.

Sunny, dry and noticeably cooler weather will follow the cold front Monday afternoon through Thursday.  Expect gusty northerly winds at 15-20 mph Monday into Monday evening.  Wind speeds should lower to 5-10 mph Tuesday through Thursday.

  • High temperatures Monday will range from the upper 70s north to the low 80s around Austin, to the mid-80s near the coast.
  • Low temperatures Tuesday morning will be in the mid-50s across the Hill Country, be around 58-60 degrees across Central Texas and near 62-65 degrees towards the coast.
 
  • High temperatures Tuesday will generally be in the mid-80s.
 
  • Low temperatures Wednesday morning will range from the upper 50s across the Hill Country to the mid-60s towards the coast.
 
  • High temperatures Wednesday will be in the upper 80s.
 
  • Lows Thursday morning will range from the low 60s west to near 70 degrees near the coast.
 
  • High temperatures Thursday will be near 90 degrees.

 
Forecast solutions indicate another fairly strong cold front will sweep south across the region sometime next Thursday night into Friday morning.  There are indications the front will be accompanied by an area of rain showers and thunderstorms.  However, rain amounts are expected to be low.  Sunny, dry and cooler temperatures will likely follow the cold front Friday into next weekend with high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s.  Low temperatures will generally be in the mid and upper 50s.  Looking out beyond next weekend, forecast solutions indicate a somewhat cooler pattern will continue, with high temperatures staying mostly in the 80s.

It appears we will finally break the summer pattern next week, with more fall-like temperatures expected to follow into the middle of the month.  Unfortunately, long-range forecasts are not calling for any widespread, significant rain over the next couple of weeks.

Tropical Weather Outlook


Weather conditions are quiet across the tropical Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

National Hurricane Center forecasters are watching a broad area of low pressure located just north of the Yucatan peninsula.  This system appears to be degenerating into a broad trough of low pressure. The shower activity associated with this system remains limited, and development is not anticipated while it moves over the Bay of Campeche during the next day or two.  This system should have no effect on Texas weather.   

NHC forecasters are forecasting an area of low pressure to form in the North Atlantic, between Bermuda and the Azores by the middle of next week.  This system will be monitored for signs of tropical or subtropical development while it moves slowly westward.  This potential disturbance poses no threat to the Gulf of Mexico or the Texas coast.

Tropical cyclone development is not expected over the next 5 days.

International Observe the Moon Night is October 5

International Observe the Moon Night is a worldwide celebration of lunar science and exploration, celestial observation, and our cultural and personal connections to the moon.  One day each year, everyone on Earth is invited to observe, learn about, and celebrate the moon together.  In 2019, it comes on October 5.

You can participate by attending or hosting an International Observe the Moon Night event, or by registering as a lunar observer. Connect with fellow lunar enthusiasts around the world through NASA's Facebook page, #ObserveTheMoon on your preferred social media platform, and the International Observe the Moon Night.  Join the Virtual Telescope Project to view the moon online, on International Observe the Moon night at:  https://www.virtualtelescope.eu/webtv

Have a good weekend.

Bob

Fall's First Cold Front Is Forecast to Finally Arrive on Monday.
Thursday, October 3, 2019 5:25 PM

Our never-ending summer may finally be coming to an end soon.  It has been highly unusual to go through all of September with August-like temperatures and no cold fronts.  But forecast solutions indicate a strong trough of low pressure will move east across the Plains states this weekend, finally weakening the strong ridge of high pressure which has held firmly in place since early August.  A fairly strong Canadian cold front associated with this trough is forecast to push into North Texas on Sunday, then sweep south across Central and South Texas on Monday.

The National Weather Service's forecast weather map for 7 am next Monday, October 7th, calls for the front to move across Central Texas early Monday morning, with the front continuing south to the coast Monday afternoon.

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In advance of the cold front, high temperatures Saturday and Sunday are predicted to continue in the mid to upper 90s.  But summer should come to an end Monday as cooler air spreads in behind the cold front.  Weak moisture convergence along the cold front will cause a slight chance for a few rain showers and isolated thunderstorms when the cold front pushes across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions late Sunday night into Monday morning.  Rain amounts, if any, should total around a tenth of an inch or less.  A slightly better chance for rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast across the coastal plains Monday morning into Monday afternoon when the front moves into a greater amount of moisture.  The probability for rain will be near 30 percent and rain amounts could total up to a quarter of an inch.  Clouds should clear from north to south Monday morning into Monday afternoon as drier air spreads south out of North Texas.  Expect strong northwesterly winds with speeds of 15-25 mph Monday into Monday evening.  Sunny and dry weather conditions are forecast next Tuesday through Thursday.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the mid and upper 80s Monday and in the mid-80s on Tuesday.  Slightly warmer temperatures are predicted for Wednesday and Thursday, with highs rising to around 88-90 degrees.

Low temperatures Tuesday morning look to range from the mid-50s across the Hill Country to the low 60s across Central Texas and the mid-60s towards the coast.  Lows Wednesday morning will range from the upper 50s to the mid-60s, while lows Thursday morning should be in the low to upper 60s.

Forecast solutions indicate an even stronger cold front will push through the region next Thursday night.  There will be a quick chance for rain showers and thunderstorms along the front, followed by dry and even cooler weather conditions Friday into next weekend.  High temperatures should fall to the upper 70s to low 80s, with low temperatures in the 50s.

It's been a long wait but a more fall-like weather pattern appears to finally be on the horizon.

Bob
An August-Like Weather Pattern Will Continue For at Least One More Week.
Friday, September 27, 2019 4:01 PM

Even though the start of October is just days away, an August-like weather pattern continues across Central and South Texas.  With persistent, August-like temperatures in place this month, this September is shaping up to be the warmest on record for most locations across the region.  For example, Austin-Camp Mabry's monthly average temperature through Thursday has been 88.0 degrees, which is 7.4 degrees warmer than normal.  With just 4 days left in the month, September 2019's average temperature will clearly end up being the warmest on record, as the second warmest average September temperature is 3.6 degrees lower at 84.4 degrees, set back in 2011.

Friday's weather maps showed that familiar, summertime ridge of high pressure stretching from northern Mexico to the Middle Atlantic states, producing widespread warm and humid weather. The ridge will unfortunately continue to be the dominant feature controlling our region's weather for at least another week, meaning more summertime weather ahead.

In the near term, forecasters are monitoring a small trough of low pressure located west of the ridge over Arizona and the Four Corners region.  This trough is forecast to track northeast toward the Plains states this weekend.  As the trough lifts northeast, it is expected to pull a plume of tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, north into Texas.  This plume of moisture is predicted to cause the development of scattered, mainly afternoon and evening rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region Saturday and Sunday.  The highest probability for rain will be across the coastal plains region, where the chance for rain each day will be near 40-50 percent.  Across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, the probability for rain will be 30-40 percent on both days.  For locations that do see rain, totals should generally average between a quarter and a half inch.  High temperatures both days will be mostly in the mid and upper 90s, with lower 90s expected towards the coast.  Expect a southeast wind at 10-15 mph throughout the weekend.

The chance for rain will decrease as we start the work week as the plume of tropical moisture diminishes.  Despite the ridge of high pressure hanging tough across the region, there looks to still be a slight chance for a few isolated rain showers and thunderstorms each afternoon next week.  The probability for rain will only be 20 percent.  In general, weather conditions will remain mostly sunny and unseasonably warm.  Daily high temperatures are predicted to be in the mid and upper 90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and in the lower 90s towards the coast.

Friday's forecast data indicates the persistent ridge of high pressure will finally begin to weaken next weekend.  Mostly sunny and warm weather looks to continue with highs mostly in the mid-90s.  Several of the forecast solutions indicate a large trough of low pressure will push east out of the western US the following Monday (October 7th).  This trough will help push a weak cold front into Texas October 7th-8th.  No significant rain is expected with the front.  Mostly sunny and not quite as hot temperatures are forecast the week of October 7th.  High temperatures are predicted to be mostly in the low to mid 90s, with low temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s.

The extended-range forecast solutions indicate the days of the persistent, summer-time ridge may be limited.  Solutions indicate a much weaker ridge over Texas, with a fairly active jet stream to the north the second through third weeks of October.  Hopefully, this is a sign our never-ending summer pattern may finally break.

Tropical Weather Outlook

The very active September pattern across the tropical Atlantic has finally settled down a bit.  National Hurricane Center forecasters are now monitoring just one tropical cyclone.  Tropical Depression Karen degenerated from a tropical depression to a surface trough of low pressure Friday afternoon.  As of 3 pm CDT, the remnants of Karen were located about 685 miles east-southeast of Bermuda.  The remnants were moving toward the northeast near 6 mph but should stall and then begin moving westward over the weekend.  Maximum sustained winds were near 35 mph with higher gusts.  Winds associated with the remnants are expected to gradually decrease during the next several days.  The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on Karen.

Hurricane Lorenzo was located Friday afternoon over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, roughly 1575 miles southwest of the Azores.  Lorenzo was moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph, and this general motion is forecast to continue tonight.  A turn toward the north is expected on Saturday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Sunday.  Maximum sustained winds are now near 125 mph with higher gusts.  Lorenzo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days.  However, Lorenzo is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through the weekend.

A combination of satellite wind data and reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Lorenzo remains a large hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles.  Lorenzo poses no threat to any major land areas.
 
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RAMMB-CIRA 09/27/2019 1:20 pm CDT

Elsewhere, weather conditions are quiet.  There are no systems in place which pose a threat for tropical development over the next 5 days.

Have a good weekend.

Bob

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