Forecast for Central Texas

Friday Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday
62 °F / 59 °F 72 °F / 44 °F 65 °F / 42 °F 71 °F / 42 °F 66 °F / 60 °F
20% Chance Rain Showers 70% Chance Rain/T-Storms 20% Chance Rain Showers Mostly Sunny 50% Chance Rain/T-Storms
Updated February 23, 2018

Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

The Wet Pattern Will Extend into the Middle of Next Week. Mild Temperatures Expected.
Friday, February 23, 2018 2:46 PM

It has been a wet week for the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, with some locations receiving more than 4 inches of rain.  The middle Texas coastal region has seen the least amount of rain, with most totals averaging around a half inch, or less.  But the wet pattern isn't over quite yet.  There will be another chance for rain this weekend, with another chance for rain developing the middle of next week.

As of early Friday afternoon, weather conditions were fairly quiet across the region.  The rain and thunderstorms which pushed across Central Texas early morning had moved well off to the northeast.  The biggest weather problem at the current time is dense fog.  Warmer air returning off the Gulf of Mexico is causing a widespread area of fog across Central Texas and the Hill Country.  The most dense fog was being observed across Central Texas, in advance of a warm front.  At 2 pm, the front stretched from Tyler to Huntsville, to Smithville, to near New Braunfels.  Temperatures to the south of the front were in the mid-60s to upper 70s, while to the north of the front, readings were still in the 40s and 50s.  The front should continue moving northwest this afternoon, moving past most of Central Texas by this evening, and pushing north of the Hill Country by about midnight.  Behind the warm front, a mostly cloudy sky with no fog is expected through late afternoon.  Today's temperature is forecast to warm to the low and middle 60s across Central Texas and to around 55-58 degrees across the Hill Country.  Readings across the coastal plains should reach the mid and upper 70s.

There will be just a slight chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region this afternoon and evening as we wait for the next trough of low pressure to move out of the Desert Southwest on Saturday.  Low temperatures Saturday morning will be quite mild, ranging from the mid and upper 50s across the Hill Country, to the upper 60s towards the coast.

A large trough of low pressure currently located over the Desert Southwest is forecast to track east-northeast tonight and Saturday, moving across the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma Saturday into early Sunday.  In advance of the trough, the atmosphere over Central Texas is forecast to become quite moist and slightly unstable.  The will be a 30 percent chance for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms after midnight tonight.  The chance for rain showers and thunderstorms will increase across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Saturday morning when a Pacific cold front associated with the upper trough pushes east out of West Texas.  The front is forecast to move across the Hill Country starting around daybreak, reaching the Interstate 35 corridor about noon.  A large area of rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast it develop ahead of and along the cold front.  The front will continue moving southeast Saturday afternoon, clearing the middle Texas coast late Saturday evening.  The rain looks to taper off from west to east across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Saturday afternoon, with dry weather expected by Saturday evening.  Towards the coast, rain showers and thunderstorms will be in place Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, with more showers expected after midnight Saturday night.

Rain amounts Saturday are not shaping up to be all that heavy, with most totals expected to be between 0.25 and 0.5 inches.  Isolated totals to near 1 inch will be possible.  Saturday's temperature will be quite mild, reaching the low 70s.  It will turn a bit cooler Saturday night.  Lows Sunday morning will include the mid and upper 30s Hill Country, the low and mid-40s Central Texas and middle 50s towards the coast.

Sunday's weather is shaping up to be partly cloudy and mild across the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor regions.  But scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to continue across the eastern counties of Central Texas and the middle Texas coast for much of the day on Sunday as the front stalls just off the coast.  Weak disturbances moving northeast out of Mexico are forecast to cause periods of overrunning rain showers throughout the day.  But the activity should taper off Sunday evening.  Additional totals of 0.25-0.5 inches are forecast.  Sunday's temperature should generally reach the mid-60s.

Mostly sunny, dry and mild weather is forecast across the entire region Monday.  Expect a high temperature near 70 degrees.

Forecast solutions call for another large trough of low pressure to take shape over the southwestern US late Monday.  The trough is forecast to track northeast, reaching the southern Plains states Wednesday.  The approaching trough is expected to pull clouds and moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico beginning Monday night, with a scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms developing Tuesday.  There will be a 40-50 percent chance for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms Tuesday through Wednesday, with the activity tapering off Wednesday evening.  Friday's forecast data indicates rainfall over the 2-day period shouldn't be all that heavy.  Amounts are forecast to generally average between 0.5 and 1 inch.  High temperatures Tuesday will be in the upper 60s, warming to the low 70s Wednesday.

Mostly sunny, dry and mild weather is predicted next Thursday through Sunday as upper-level winds turn westerly.  High temperatures are forecast to be around 68-70 degrees, with low temperatures mostly in the 50s.

Another slight chance to a chance for rain is forecast to develop next Sunday and Monday.  Mild temperatures are forecast through the first week of March, with high temperatures generally in the 60s.

THE EVENING STAR IS BACK:  If the sky clears this weekend, look for an old friend low in the western sky; the planet Venus.  After an 11-month absence, the 2nd planet has returned to the evening sky.  And this is just the beginning for Venus.  The planet is emerging from the glare of the sun and should become easier to see every night.  It will be an increasingly bright fixture of the evening sky for the next 8 months.

A date of special note is March 18, 2018.  On that date, Venus, Mercury and the whisper-thin crescent Moon will gather in the sunset sky for a beautiful triple conjunction.

Have a good weekend.

Bob

Previous Blog Entries

More Rain and Thunderstorms Expected Friday through Saturday.
Thursday, February 22, 2018 6:10 PM

This week's rainy pattern has brought much needed rainfall to all of the region.  However, it turns out some locations have received considerably more rainfall than others.

The National Weather Service's 3-day rainfall estimate, based on surface gauges and Doppler radar, shows the highest totals of rain have fallen across the Hill Country, while the lowest totals have been across the Interstate 35 corridor and the middle Texas coast.

NWS rainfall estimate for the period 6 am Monday through 6 am Thursday:
FF.png

The National Weather Service's analysis shows totals of 1-2 inches over the northern Hill Country, including parts of Burnet, Llano, Mason, Kimble and Menard Counties.  A small area of 4-5 inch totals is also indicted from just north of San Saba to near Comanche.

Southeast of Austin, totals of 1-1.5 inches have fallen across parts of Fayette, Colorado and Washington Counties.

Fairly low totals are bring observed across the Interstate 35 corridor, from near Georgetown to south of San Antonio.  Here, most totals have been less than a half inch. Another area of low totals is noted along the middle Texas coast, across Matagorda, Wharton and Jackson Counties.  Here, several totals have been less than a quarter inch.

In Austin, rainfall at Camp Mabry from early Tuesday through 5 pm Thursday has measured 0.45 inches.  At Austin-Bergstrom, rainfall over the same period has measured 0.35 inches.

But the rainy pattern isn't over.  Forecast solutions call for another wave of rain showers and thunderstorms to develop late Thursday night, continuing through Friday, as another wave of low pressure tracks northeast out of Mexico.  Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast Saturday into Saturday evening, in advance of and along a Pacific cold front pushing east out of West Texas.

However, heavy rain is not expected Friday through Saturday as most totals are forecast to stay below 1 inch.

NWS rainfall forecast for the period 6 pm Thursday through 6 pm Sunday:
Tom2.png
On Friday I'll have a more detailed update on expected weather conditions for the weekend and next week.

Bob
    
Rain Increasing in Coverage and Intensity Tuesday Night through Wednesday.
Tuesday, February 20, 2018 2:49 PM


The first of what will be several waves of rain showers and thunderstorms is currently moving across the region.  As of mid-afternoon, radar showed an area of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms stretching from around Waco, to La Grange to Corpus Christi.  The area of rain was slowly moving to the east-northeast.  Earlier, these rains produced totals close to 1.25 inches across the northern Hill Country between Brady, Brownwood and Goldthwaite.  Elsewhere, totals have been much lower.  Radar also showed light rain showers spreading northeast out of Southwest Texas.

This afternoon, rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely persist across the entire region due to a moist and marginally unstable atmosphere. While widespread severe storms are not expected this afternoon or tonight, a couple of isolated storms may become severe, producing large hail and damaging winds.  Temperatures this afternoon will be mild, with readings reaching the low 70s across the Hill Country and mid to upper 70s at most other locations.  Expect a south wind at 10-15 mph.

Rain showers and thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage and intensity this evening and overnight in advance of a Canadian cold front sinking south out of northwest Texas.  The latest forecast data calls for the front to arrive a bit sooner than previously forecast.   The front is expected to reach the northern Hill Country late this evening and the Austin area shortly after midnight.  The front is forecast to reach the La Grange area just before daybreak then pull up stationary near Interstate 10 Wednesday morning.  High resolution forecasts call for a widespread area of rain showers and thunderstorms to develop across the Hill Country this evening, with the activity expanding east across Central Texas and parts of the middle Texas coast overnight, continuing through Wednesday morning.  Moderate to occasionally heavy rain is forecast through the period.  In some spots, the rain and thunderstorms will have the potential to train over the same area, causing high totals of rain, potentially producing considerable runoff.

Widespread light to moderate rain showers and isolated thunderstorms look to continue across the entire region Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening as an efficient overrunning pattern sets up behind the cold front.  The widespread rains are forecast to decrease late Thursday, but periods of rain showers are still predicted Friday through Saturday as another wave of low pressure moves east out of the Desert Southwest.  The probability for rain both days will be near 50 percent.

Significant totals of rain are forecast over the next 3 days.  The latest National Weather Service 3-day rainfall forecast calls for general totals of 2-3 inches across most of the region, with isolated totals of 4-5 inches possible.

NWS rainfall forecast for the period 6 pm Tuesday through 6 pm Friday:

 Rain11.png

The temperature will turn quite a bit cooler behind tonight's cold front.

Low temperatures Wednesday morning will include the low 40s across the Hill Country, the mid and upper 40s around Austin, with upper 60s across the coastal plains.

High temperatures Wednesday will be in the low and mid-50s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, with upper 70s towards the coast.

Low temperatures Thursday morning will include the mid-30s across the Hill Country, the low 40s across Central Texas and upper 50s towards the coast.

High temperatures Thursday will be in the mid-50s.

High temperatures Friday will be near 68-70 degrees.
   
Forecast solutions call for a Pacific cold front to push across our area late Saturday, bringing slightly cooler air for Saturday night, Sunday and Monday.  The chance for rain is forecast to diminish late Saturday night, with generally dry weather expected Sunday and Monday.   High temperatures Sunday and Monday will be in the low and mid-60s.  Low temperatures will be in the mid and upper 40s.  Longer-range forecasts call for rain showers to return to our area next Tuesday through Thursday as additional waves of low pressure begin moving over Texas out of the western US.

Bob
  
A Wet Week Expected. Significant Totals of Rain will be Possible.
Monday, February 19, 2018 3:39 PM

The weather pattern will be trending wet and unsettled over the next few days as a series of low pressure troughs move over our region out of the southwestern US.  A recent change in the position of Jet Stream has allowed a large trough of low pressure to set up and stall over the western US.  Over the next 1-2 weeks, disturbances moving through the western trough are forecast to eject east across Texas, producing periods of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms.

The combination of that developing low pressure trough over the western US and a broad ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic is helping to steer a warm and very moist air mass into Texas.  Midday satellite images showed clouds covering most of Central and South Texas, and these clouds will likely remain in place for most of the afternoon.  Despite the clouds, afternoon temperatures will be quite mild, with highs generally in the mid and upper 70s.  With atmospheric moisture levels increasing, there will be a slight chance for a few isolated rain showers and thunderstorms across the area, but widespread rain is not expected.  It will be a breezy afternoon with southerly winds at 10-20 mph with occasional gusts to 30 mph. 

The chance for rain and thunderstorms looks to increase across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions tonight when a vigorous trough of low pressure moves east out of northern Mexico.  High-resolution forecast solutions call for a large complex of rain and thunderstorms to develop over northern Mexico and Far West Texas this evening, with the rain and storms spreading over the Hill Country before midnight and the Central Texas region shortly after midnight.  The activity is forecast to continue overnight, tapering off from west to east after daybreak Tuesday.  Should the rain and storms hold together, they will spread across the middle Texas coast Tuesday morning.  Severe storms are not forecast but a couple of the thunderstorms may produce small hail and gusty winds.  Rain amounts Monday night into Tuesday morning are forecast to generally be between 0.5 and 1 inch, with isolated heavier totals.
Low temperatures Tuesday morning will be in the mid-60s.

Forecasts call for the sky to remain cloudy Tuesday.  Occasional rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible throughout the day, with the probability for rain near 80 percent.  Tuesday's temperature will generally reach the low and middle 70s.

Widespread moderate to occasionally heavy rain is forecast to develop across the entire region Tuesday night, continuing through about midday Wednesday when a Canadian cold front slowly sinks south out of North Texas.  Abundant moisture, strong atmospheric lift and the slow moving cold front will likely combine to produce a large, slow-moving complex of rain and thunderstorms that will spread from west to east.  The complex of rain is forecast to push east of our region by early afternoon Wednesday.  As of now, severe thunderstorms are not expected, but some of the storms could be strong, producing small hail and gusty winds.  Moderate to heavy rain is forecast with the complex of storms.  Rainfall forecasts for the period Tuesday evening through midday Wednesday call for widespread totals of 1-2 inches, with isolated heavier totals.  Occasional light rain showers and look to continue Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.  The temperature will turn noticeably cooler behind the cold front on Wednesday, with high temperatures across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions in the mid and upper 50s.  Low temperatures Thursday morning will range from the mid and upper 30s north, to the low and mid-40s across Central Texas to the low and mid-50s towards the coast.

Forecast solutions call for a good chance for light to moderate rain showers across the region Thursday and Thursday night as an overrunning pattern sets up.  The probability for precipitation will be near 50 percent.  Thursday's temperature is only forecast to reach the mid-50s.  Lows Friday morning will generally be around 48-50 degrees.  Rain amounts are forecast to total around a half inch.

A 30-40 percent chance for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms is forecast Friday as the cold front moves back north as a warm front.  Expect a mostly cloudy sky.  Warmer air will spread north from the Gulf, pushing temperatures into the mid-60s.

A mostly cloudy sky is forecast next weekend as additional disturbances track across Texas out of northern Mexico.  There will be a 20-30 percent chance for rain showers both days.  Rain amounts are not expected to be very heavy, with most totals under a half inch.  High temperatures both days should be near 70 degrees with low temperatures in the low 50s.

Looking ahead to next week, the cloudy, wet pattern looks to continue as the large trough of low pressure remains anchored over the western and southwestern US.  Periods of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast throughout the week.  However, heavy rain is not predicted at this time.  High temperatures next week are forecast to be mostly in the 60s to near 70 degrees, with lows in the 50s.

Long-range solutions don't show any arctic air moving towards Texas over the next 2-week period.

Rain amounts over the next 5 days will be significant, with the majority of the rain falling Tuesday through Wednesday.  The National Weather Service's 5-day rainfall forecast calls for totals of 1-3 inches across the Hill Country and 1-2 inches across the coastal plains.  Isolated totals of 4-5 inches will be possible.

NWS rainfall forecast for the period 6 pm Monday through 6 pm Saturday:

Rain10.png
Bob

A Cloudy, Wet Pattern Developing. Closely Monitoring Rainfall the Middle of Next Week.
Friday, February 16, 2018 2:37 PM

A cloudy and somewhat unsettled weather pattern will be taking shape and persisting for the next week or so as a series of low pressure systems move northeast out of northern Mexico.  Meanwhile, a couple of cold fronts will be pushing across the area over the next week, helping to enhance the chance for rain.  No artic air is on the horizon for at least the next couple of weeks.

A Canadian cold front is currently pushing south across Central Texas.  As of early Friday afternoon, the front stretched from Longview, to Austin, to near Del Rio.  To the south of the front, a southwesterly breeze was helping push the temperature well into the 70s.  For areas behind the cold front, northerly winds at 10-20 mph were bringing in cooler air.  Here, readings are forecast to hold mostly in the low and mid-60s throughout the afternoon.  The front is predicted to continue sinking south this afternoon, stalling just off the middle Texas coast this evening.  There will be a slight chance for a few light rain showers ahead of and along the cold front this afternoon.  Rain amounts, if any, should only total a few hundredths of an inch.  For most of the region, the sky will remain mostly cloudy this afternoon as a large area of clouds spread northeast out of Mexico.

Forecast solutions call for the development of occasional light rain showers across the region tonight, continuing through Saturday and Saturday evening as an overrunning pattern sets up.  A Pacific trough of low pressure moving slowly northeast out of Mexico tonight into Saturday will be driving this overrunning pattern.  The probability for rain will be near 50 percent.  Rain amounts through Saturday evening are forecast to generally total below a quarter inch.  The temperature will be noticeably cooler through Saturday through Saturday night.  Low temperatures Saturday morning will range from the low and mid-40s across the Hill Country to the mid and upper 40s across Central Texas to the low and mid-50s towards the coast.  High temperatures Saturday will generally be in the upper 50s to low 60s, with upper 60s towards the coast.  Low temperature Sunday morning will range from the mid and upper 40s west, to the upper 50s towards the coast.

Today's cold front is forecast to move back north as a warm front on Sunday.  Warmer and more humid air is expected behind the front Sunday afternoon, with readings reaching close to 70 degrees.  There will be a 30 percent chance for a few scattered rain showers throughout the day, but significant rain is not expected.  What rain does develop should total less than a quarter inch.  The sky is forecast to stay mostly cloudy throughout the day.

Somewhat similar weather conditions are forecast Monday as a warm and moist flow continues off the Gulf of Mexico.  At the same time, considerable Pacific moisture will be spreading over the region out of Mexico.  There will be a 30 percent chance for scattered rain showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two.  Under a mostly cloudy sky, the temperature should climb to the mid and upper 70s.

The chance for rain and thunderstorms is forecast to increase Tuesday when a broad trough of low pressure develops over the Desert Southwest and a Canadian cold front begins to sink south out of the Plains states.  The atmosphere over Central Texas looks to become quite moist and somewhat unstable Tuesday in advance of the cold front.  In fact, some of the thunderstorms could potentially become strong.  The chance for rain and thunderstorms is forecast to be near 50 percent across the region Tuesday into Tuesday night.  Expect a high temperature in the mid-70s.

The most favorable period for rain and thunderstorms is shaping up to occur Wednesday when the Canadian cold front pushes south out of North Texas.  Forecast solutions call for a widespread area of rain and thunderstorms to develop along and behind the cold front as it moves to the south.  Moderate rain is forecast, with the rain decreasing from north to south Wednesday evening.  Rain amounts Tuesday through Wednesday are forecast to generally average between 1 and 1.5 inches across much of the Hill Country and Central Texas.  Slightly lower amounts are forecast across the coastal plains.  The temperature will turn cooler behind the front Wednesday, with high temperatures mostly in the low 50s.

The sky is forecast to remain mostly cloudy next Thursday and Friday.  In addition, there will be a slight chance for occasional rain showers both days as Pacific disturbances track northeast out of northern Mexico.  Rain amounts both days are forecast to be quite low.  High temperatures Thursday will be in the mid-50s, warming to the mid-60s on Friday.  Low temperatures Thursday morning will be in the 40s.  Lows Friday morning will be in the 50s.

Rain amounts over the next 7 days are forecast to be significant.  The National Weather Service is calling for widespread totals in the range of 1-2.5 inches.

NWS rainfall forecast for the period 6 pm Friday through 6 pm next Friday:

Rain6.png

Longer range forecasts suggest next week's cloudy, damp pattern will extend through next weekend and into the following week as well as a large trough of low pressure remains parked over the Desert Southwest.  Occasional periods of rain look to continue.  High temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 60s to low 70s with low temperatures mostly in the 50s to low 60s.

Bob

National Weather Service Releases an Updated Outlook for Spring and Summer.
Thursday, February 15, 2018 4:43 PM

On Thursday, the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued its updated seasonal outlook for the next several months.  CPC forecasters based their update primarily on the dry and mild influence from a persistent weak to moderate La Niña.  The La Niña is forecast to persist for the next couple of months, but diminish sometime in late spring.  Based on the typical response from La Nina, our region should see drier than normal and warmer than normal conditions this spring.  But in addition to La Niña, the forecasters pointed out other oscillations in the atmosphere have recently strengthened and these features may temper the typical signal from La Nina over the next couple of months.  These oscillations have the potential to bring more chilly air into Texas, especially during March.  These same oscillation also have the potential to bring periods of rain into Central Texas from time to time. 

The CPC outlook across Central Texas for the month of March shows no clear trend for temperature.  There are equal odds for the temperature to average above, below or near normal.  In regards to precipitation, the outlook shows slightly increased odds for below normal rainfall across the western half of Texas, while no clear trend is noted for the eastern half.  For Central Texas, I'd take that as slightly increased odds for below normal rainfall.

CPC.png

Looking out further into spring, March through May, the outlook shows highly increased odds for above normal temperatures and increased odds for below normal rainfall across all of Texas.

Hallow.png
The updated outlook for summer (June through August) shows increased odds for above normal temperatures across Texas.  However, the outlook shows no clear trend for precipitation across Central Texas as the La Nina fades.

Tom2.png
Following a cooler and drier than normal winter across Central Texas, the weather pattern may be changing some as we head into spring.  Hang on because it looks like it might be a bumpy ride as the Pacific transitions to ENSO neutral.

Bob

The Sun Will be Going on Vacation for Several Days.
Tuesday, February 13, 2018 6:00 PM

If you're a fan of sunny, dry weather, you're going to have to be patient.  It looks like it's going to be a while before we see a stretch of sunny days across Central Texas.  The latest forecast data is calling for numerous cloudy days and periods of rain across our region through the end of the month, and possibly stretching into early March.  A recent shift in the position of the jet stream over North America is expected to bring a long series of low pressure troughs out of the Pacific and across Texas for at least the next couple of weeks.

A satellite image from late Thursday afternoon showed a large area of middle and high-level clouds stretching from the eastern Pacific, across Mexico and Texas.

  
Hallow.png
                                                                   RAAMB - CIRA

The clouds were moving from southwest to northeast and look to keep our sky mostly cloudy Wednesday and Thursday.  Some brief peeks at the sun will be possible both days, but overall, the sky is expected to stay mostly cloudy.

Forecast solutions indicate a cold front will push south through the region Friday morning, with widespread clouds and scattered rain showers developing along and behind the cold front Friday afternoon, continuing through Sunday.  The probability for rain through this period is forecast to be around 40-50 percent.  The temperature will turn cooler behind the cold front Friday and Saturday, but milder readings should return Sunday and early next week.  Weekend rain amounts are forecast to generally total between 0.25 and 0.50 inches.

Looking ahead to next week, forecast solutions are calling for the cloudy, wet weather pattern to continue as a series of Pacific low pressure troughs continue to march northeast across Texas.  Forecasts call for widespread rainfall developing Monday through Wednesday.  There are indications some of the 3-day totals could be around 1 inch.  More rain is forecast late next week when a Canadian cold front pushes through the area and an overrunning pattern sets up.  Once again, some significant totals of rain will be possible.

I'll have more details on this cloudy, wet pattern over the next few days.  In the meantime, be thinking of some sunny, tropical beaches.

Bob

A Chance for Rain Forecast troughout the Week. Temperatures Trending Milder through Thursday.
Monday, February 12, 2018 3:40 PM

Canadian high pressure settling south across Texas over the weekend brought freezing temperatures to the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Monday morning.  Minimum temperatures included the low to upper 20s across the Hill Country, the upper 20s to low 30s across Central Texas and the mid to upper 30s across the coastal plains region.  In Austin, the temperature reached 31 degrees at Camp Mabry and 30 degrees at Austin-Bergstrom.

Early afternoon satellite images showed a large area of low clouds covering the eastern half of the state, generally along and to the east of Interstate 35.  The clouds were the result of warm, moist air spreading up and over the shallow cold air mass at the surface.  Meanwhile, a mostly clear sky was being observed across the Hill Country and West Texas.  For the remainder of this afternoon, the sky is forecast to remain mostly cloudy to occasionally partly cloudy for areas east of Interstate 35.  Here, temperatures are only expected to warm to the mid-40s.  To the west of Interstate 35, expect a partly cloudy sky, with the temperature warming to the low 50s.

Forecast solutions call for the sky to become cloudy region-wide this evening and overnight as the flow of warm, moist air increases off the Gulf.  Some spotty light rain showers or drizzle will be possible toward daybreak.  Low temperatures Tuesday morning will include the upper 30s Hill Country, the lower 40s Central Texas and the middle-40s towards the coast.

A small wave of low pressure in the upper atmosphere is forecast to slowly move northeast out of Central Mexico Tuesday into Tuesday night.  As the system approaches Texas, the pattern of overrunning clouds and light rain is forecast to increase.  Expect a 40-50 percent chance for occasional periods of light rain showers Tuesday into Tuesday night.  A slight chance for light rain showers will also linger into Wednesday.  Rain amounts Tuesday through Wednesday are only forecast to average near or less than a quarter inch.  The chance for rain should diminish by Wednesday evening as the wave of low pressure and the shallow cool air mass both move off to the east. 

High temperatures Tuesday will be mostly in the mid-50s.  Low temperatures Wednesday morning will range from the upper 40s across the Hill Country to the mid-50s towards the coast.  Wednesday's temperature will be warmer, with readings reaching the upper 60s to low 70s.

Mostly cloudy, breezy and unseasonably mild weather is forecast Wednesday night through Thursday as the flow off the Gulf of Mexico increases.  Low temperatures Thursday morning will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.  Meanwhile, high temperatures Thursday afternoon will be in the upper 70s.  A few spots could even reach 80 degrees.

Forecast solutions call for another strong Canadian cold front to sink south across the Plains states Thursday.  The front is predicted to reach the northern Hill Country late Thursday night, the Austin/Central Texas region before daybreak Friday morning and the coastal plains region late Friday morning.  High temperatures Friday will be quite a bit cooler, with mid-50s across the Hill Country and upper 50s across Central Texas.  Readings are forecast to reach the low 70s towards the coast Friday morning, dropping into the 50s in the afternoon.  

An area of light rain showers is forecast to develop along and behind the cold front Friday as another overrunning pattern begins to set up.  There will be a 40-50 percent chance for light rain showers across the region Friday and Friday night.  But once again, rain amounts are forecast to average less than a quarter inch.  Low temperatures Saturday morning will include the low and mid-30s across the Hill Country, the upper 30s across Central Texas and mid to upper 40s towards the coast.  High temperatures Saturday will be in the low 50s.

Parts of the northern Hill Country could see the potential development of some light freezing rain and freezing drizzle late Friday night into Saturday morning as the temperature across that region falls to or below freezing.  The rest of the region is not expected to see this threat as the temperature stays above freezing.

Weather conditions this coming weekend, continuing into the first half next week are shaping up to be mostly cloudy, with occasional periods of light rain.  Forecast solutions call for a large trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere to slowly sink south along the West Coast next weekend, becoming stationary over the southwestern US for much of next week.  This system is expected to pull considerable Gulf moisture north into Texas, resulting in periods of light rain.  As of now, rain amounts through the period are not expected to be very heavy.  High temperatures through the period are forecast to be mostly in the 70s, with low temperatures mostly in the upper 50s to low 60s.  Some colder air may spread south into our region the latter part of next week.

Have a good week.

Bob

Turning Much Colder Late Saturday into Sunday. A Chance for Rain through the Weekend.
Friday, February 9, 2018 2:56 PM

The weather pattern looks to be quite active over the next few days as a strong cold front and a series of low pressure troughs move over our region.

Today's weather is shaping up to mostly cloudy and mild as southerly breezes pull moisture inland from the Gulf of Mexico.  The temperature is forecast to warm close to 70 degrees at most locations.  Some low and mid-70s will even be possible across the northern and western Hill Country.  Expect a southerly breeze at 10-15 mph.

Forecasters are monitoring a wave of low pressure in the upper atmosphere currently located over north central Mexico.  This area of low pressure is forecast to move northeast tonight, moving over the eastern half of Texas on Saturday.  In advance of the trough, drizzle and light rain is forecast to develop this evening, continuing overnight across much of the Hill Country and Central Texas.  Rain amounts should be quite low.  Low temperatures Saturday morning will be mostly in the upper 50s.

Heavier and more widespread rains are forecast to develop across the coastal plains region beginning around midnight Friday night, continuing till around mid-afternoon Saturday.  A warm front slowly pushing north from the coast is expected to become the focus for the development of widespread moderate to occasionally heavy rain showers and thunderstorms.  This zone for heavy rain will mainly be for areas along and south of a line stretching from Tomball to East Bernard, to near Edna.  Within this area, rainfall is forecast to generally total between 1 and 3 inches.  This volume of rain may lead to street flooding along with rises on area creeks and streams.  Lighter rains and isolated thunderstorms do look to continue across this same region late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.

The sky is forecast to remain cloudy across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Saturday as the wave of low pressure passes off to the east.  There will be a 20-30 percent chance for occasional light rain showers throughout the day, but heavy rain is not expected.  The feature to watch will be a strong Canadian cold front that will be sinking south across the region.  The front is forecast to reach the northern Hill Country shortly after daybreak Saturday.  The front will continue moving southeast Saturday morning, reaching the Llano/Fredericksburg area by midday and the Austin area around mid-afternoon.  The front should reach La Grange in the late afternoon and the coastal plains region around midnight.  Temperatures ahead of the front will warm into the 60s, but will fall into the 50s once the front passes.  Expect a northwesterly wind at 10-15 mph.

NWS rainfall forecast for the period 6 pm Friday through 6 pm Monday:
Rain5.png 
Cloudy, breezy and cold weather is forecast Saturday night through Sunday in the wake of the strong cold front.  Occasional light rain is forecast through the period as weak atmospheric disturbances track over the region.  The temperature is forecast to fall to or go below freezing over much of the Hill Country around midnight Saturday night and continue below freezing till about mid-morning Sunday.  Light freezing rain and freezing drizzle is forecast for areas generally along and north of a Temple to Llano to Junction line.  Significant accumulations of ice are not forecast but even very light amounts of ice can cause hazardous travel on bridges and overpasses.   Low temperatures Sunday morning are predicted to be near 28-30 degrees across the Hill Country, near 32-35 degrees across Central Texas and the lower 40s towards the coast.

The threat for freezing precipitation should end across the Hill Country around mid-morning Sunday as the temperature warms above freezing.  Occasional light rain looks to continue across the region through about mid-afternoon, with dry conditions developing Sunday evening.  Weekend rain amounts forecast to total less than quarter inch across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions.  Sunday will be a cold day, with the temperature only waring to around 40 degrees across the Hill Country, the low 40s across Central Texas and the middle 40s towards the coast.

A freeze is expected across the Hill Country and most of Central Texas Sunday night.  Low temperatures Monday morning will be in the mid and upper 20s across the Hill Country, around 30-33 degrees across Central Texas and near 35-38 degrees towards the coast.

Sunshine will make an appearance across the region Monday.  Under a mostly sunny sky, the temperature should warm to the mid-50s.  Lows Tuesday morning will be in the low and mid-40s.

Forecast solutions call for mostly cloudy and mild weather conditions next Tuesday through Friday as our region comes under the influence of a southwesterly wind flow in the upper atmosphere.  Weak waves of low pressure embedded within this flow coming out of the Pacific will cause a slight chance for a few light rain showers each day.  Rain amounts should be quite low.  High temperatures will be in the 60s Tuesday and Wednesday, warming to the low 70s Thursday and Friday.  Low temperatures are forecast to be mostly in the 50s.  Longer-range forecasts are pointing toward a better chance for rain developing next weekend as a trough of low pressure pushes east from southern California.

Have a good weekend.

Bob

 

February Update on La Niña
Thursday, February 8, 2018 5:26 PM

On Thursday, the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued its monthly update on La Niña.  CPC forecasters stated we are going into the fourth month of this La Niña and its strength has moved into the moderate category.  During January 2018, La Niña was quite evident in the pattern of below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) which stretched from the coast of South America to beyond the International Date Line.  Within this region, sea surface temperature anomalies were generally around 1 degree Celsius below normal.  (The threshold for La Niña is 0.5 degrees Celsius below normal).

Tom2.png Average sea surface temperature anomalies (°C) for the week centered on January 31, 2018.  

While negative SST anomalies are in place at the surface, sea surface temperatures anomalies for waters below the surface have warmed over the past month and are now close to average.  This recent warming is believed to have been associated with the downwelling phase of an eastward propagating equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave.

Atmospheric conditions over the tropical Pacific Ocean reflected La Niña, with suppressed thunderstorm convection near and east of the International Date Line and enhanced thunderstorm convection around Indonesia.  Also, the low-level trade winds remained stronger than average over the western and central Pacific, while upper-level winds were anomalously westerly.

Overall, CPC forecasters state the ocean and atmosphere system remains very consistent with a moderate La Niña.

The La Niña appears to have peaked in intensity around the middle of January.  Looking forward, most long-range forecast models predict the La Niña will decay over the next couple of months.  CPC forecasters call for the Pacific to return to ENSO-Neutral conditions during the Northern Hemisphere spring.  CPC puts the odds of an ENSO-Neutral Pacific at around 55 percent for the period of March through May).  

The forecast consensus calls for a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions from late spring through summer.

FF.png
The official CPC/International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) ENSO probability forecast, based on a consensus of CPC and IRI forecasters.  This chart is based on observational and predictive information from early in the month and from the previous month. It uses human judgment in addition to model output.

According to CPC, La Niña is anticipated to continue affecting temperature and precipitation patterns across the United States during the next few months.  The outlooks generally favor above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation across the northern tier of the United States.

A forecast for below-median precipitation across Texas over the next few months doesn't bode well for significant drought improvement anytime soon.

Bob

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