Weather conditions are currently dry and quiet across the region on this Friday, but showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop as early as this evening across parts of the area, with the rain and storms increasing in areal coverage late tonight through Saturday.
Friday's weather maps showed Thursday's cold front has pulled up stationary just off the middle and upper Texas coast. The temperature has trended slightly cooler behind the front. Under a mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky, today's temperature should warm to around 78-80 degrees. Expect a light southeast wind at 5-10 mph.
A large trough of low pressure was located Friday morning over northwestern Mexico and southern Arizona, moving to the east-northeast. This system is predicted to reach Far West Texas Saturday morning and North Texas by Saturday evening. As the trough approaches Texas overnight and Saturday, considerable moisture is forecast to spread inland, resulting in the development of scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.
With the approaching trough, two areas of potential severe thunderstorms are forecast. The first area will be across much of West Texas along with the western and northern Hill Country tonight and toward daybreak Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area generally west of a Comanche to Mason to Kerrville line under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms tonight through 7 am Saturday. A broken line of thunderstorms is forecast to develop across the Permian Basin late this evening, with the line of rain and storms predicted to spread east overnight and into Saturday morning. Atmospheric conditions will be favorable for some of these storms to become severe. The primary severe weather threats will be large hail and damaging downburst winds. Rain and storms are forecast to exit the Hill Country by late Saturday morning.
This area of rain and storms is predicted to push east across the central/eastern Hill Country and the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor Saturday morning. Current forecasts indicate the threat for widespread severe thunderstorms will decrease across the eastern Hill Country and Central Texas regions due to the presence of a more stable atmosphere. The Storm Prediction Center has placed this area under a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms on Saturday. A few isolated, severe thunderstorms will be possible. The primary severe weather threat will be large hail. The rain and storms are forecast to exit Central Texas early to mid-Saturday afternoon.
The other area of potential severe thunderstorms is expected to take place Saturday across Southeast Texas, including the coastal counties of the middle Texas coast. The stalled cold front along the coast is forecast to lift back to the north as a warm front Saturday morning, allowing moist and very unstable air to spread inland. Isolated, severe thunderstorms will be possible across the area Saturday morning. A more organized area of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon when the broken line of rain and storms pushes southeast out of Central Texas. Severe weather threats will include large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. The rain and storm threat is forecast to end here late Saturday afternoon as rain and storms move southeast over the Gulf of Mexico.Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Outlooks for Friday and Saturday.
Rain amounts from the rain showers Friday night through Saturday are not forecast to be all that heavy. The National Weather Service is calling for most totals to be in the range of 0.25 to 0.5 inches. Some isolated heavier totals will be possible.NWS rainfall forecast for the period 7 pm Friday through 7 pm Sunday:
Clouds are forecast to clear from west to east Saturday afternoon behind the area of rain and storms. Breezy westerly winds of 10-20 mph look to develop Saturday afternoon. Northwesterly winds with speeds of 15-20 mph are forecast Saturday night. High temperatures Saturday will be near 78-82 degrees. It will turn noticeably cooler Saturday night. Lows Sunday morning will include the upper 30s to low 40s across the Hill Country, the low and mid-40s across Central Texas and the upper 40s across the coastal plains.
Sunny weather is expected Sunday and Monday when a weak ridge of high pressure builds over the area. High temperatures Sunday will be in the low 70s, warming close to 80 degrees Monday. Lows Monday morning will be in the upper 40s. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the low 60s.
The next change in the weather is forecast to take place Tuesday into Wednesday when a trough of low pressure dips southeast out of the southern Rockies. Increasing moisture ahead of the trough will cause the sky to become mostly cloudy Tuesday. A few rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are predicted Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon. Rain amounts are forecast to average less than a quarter inch.
Sunny and dry weather conditions are predicted for next Thursday, continuing through Easter Sunday as a weak ridge of high pressure spreads over Texas out of the southwest. High temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 70s late week, warming close to 80-82 degrees next weekend. Low temperatures will generally be in the 50s. The next chance for rain is forecast to occur sometime just after Easter.
Have a good weekend.