Forecast for Central Texas

Friday Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday
Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
94 °F / 72 °F 96 °F / 72 °F 97 °F / 73 °F 98 °F / 74 °F 98 °F / 75 °F
94 ° / 72 ° 96 ° / 72 ° 97 ° / 73 ° 98 ° / 74 ° 98 ° / 75 °
Mostly Sunny Mostly Sunny Mostly Sunny Mostly Sunny Mostly Sunny
Updated May 25, 2018

Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

An Early-Summer Heat Wave Beginning to Take Shape. Subtropical Storm Alberto Develops.
Friday, May 25, 2018 2:40 PM



The weather is unusually quiet across Central and South Texas.  In most years, the Memorial Day weekend sees periods of heavy rain and strong storms.  But that will not be the case this year.  A strengthening ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere spreading over Texas is predicted to keep our weekend weather sunny, dry and quite hot.  Similar conditions are forecast next week as the high pressure ridge strengthens to a level more typical of late July and August rather late May.  Near record to record warm temperatures are forecast late next week, continuing into next weekend.

In the near term, mostly sunny, warm and humid weather is forecast this afternoon.  An isolated rain shower or thunderstorm will be possible for areas to the south of Interstate 10, but all other areas look to stay dry.  Today's temperature is predicted to warm to the middle 90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions and to the low 90s towards the coast.  Expect a light south wind at around 5-10 mph.

I do want to point out there will be a low probability for a few scattered thunderstorms for the northern counties of Central Texas and the Hill Country late tonight.  Forecasters are currently monitoring a weakening complex of thunderstorms crossing the Red River into North Texas, to the north of the DFW Metroplex.  These storms are forecast to diminish across the Metroplex this afternoon, but  they are expected to produce an outflow boundary that will push south toward Central Texas tonight.  High resolution forecasts do show a few thunderstorms developing along this outflow boundary and tracking south towards the northern Hill Country and the Austin area late this evening and towards midnight.  Again, the probability for thunderstorms to reach our area will be quite low; less than 20 percent.

For Saturday through Memorial Day, mostly sunny and hot weather will be in place as the atmosphere dries out and becomes increasingly stable.  High temperatures are forecast to reach the middle 90s Saturday, rising to the upper 90s Sunday and Memorial Day.  Low to mid-90s are forecast towards the coast.  Low temperatures will be in the low 70s.  Light southerly winds at 5-10 mph are forecast through the period.

For Tuesday through Thursday, the weather will be sunny, dry and very hot!  High temperatures are forecast to be near 98-100 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, with middle 90s towards the coast.  Low temperatures will be in the low and middle 70s.

Friday, continuing through next weekend, sunny, dry and even hotter weather is expected as a very strong ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere sets up across Texas.   High temperatures are forecast to be near 100-102 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, with mid and upper 90s towards the coast.  Low temperatures will be in the mid-70s.

ECMWF forecast for the middle atmosphere (500 MB), valid 7 am Saturday, June 2, 2018
Change.png
 European Center for Medium-Range Forecasting

Long-range forecasts call for the very hot temperatures to continue through the first half of the following week, with readings lowering beginning around Wednesday, June 6th.  At that time, the large ridge of high pressure is forecast to weaken and push off to the south.

No rain is forecast over the next 10-day period.

Pre-Season Subtropical Storm Alberto Forms Over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea

Friday morning's data from land based radars and satellite indicate the broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea has become organized enough to be classified as a subtropical low pressure system.  The National Hurricane Center has now initiated advisories on sub-tropical storm Alberto.

At 1 pm CDT, the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 86.5 West, or about 60 miles south of Cozumel, Mexico.  The storm has been nearly stationary during the past several hours.  However, a general slow motion toward the north is expected through the weekend, followed by a northwest turn by Monday.  On the current forecast track, Alberto is expected to pass near the eastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula tonight, be near the western tip of Cuba Saturday morning, emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday night, and approach the north-central Gulf Coast on Monday.  Alberto is forecast to move inland somewhere between southeast Louisiana and the western Florida Panhandle sometime late Monday or early Tuesday.

FF.png
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph, with higher gusts.  Gradual strengthening is forecast for the next 72 hours.  Alberto is currently forecast to make landfall as a strong tropical storm, with maximum sustained winds near 65 mph.  Depending on atmospheric and oceanic conditions near the coast, Alberto could possibly strengthen to a weak hurricane before landfall. 

Bob2.pngRAMMB-CIRA 1:45 pm CDT 05/25/2018 

Significant rains are expected across much of SE LA through much of FL and the SE US, with averaged storm totals of 5-15 inches with some isolated higher amounts. Tropical storm conditions including strong winds and storm surge will be possible along the US Gulf coast from SE Louisiana eastward into the west coast of FL over the next several days. The slow moving nature and overall large size of the system will result in impacts well away from the center and for an extended period of time. 

No impacts are currently forecast for the Texas coast.  Winds will turn toward the northeast by Monday on the western side of the circulation.  This will help drag drier air over the southern plains southward to the eastern half of Texas.

The Moon and Jupiter

Over the next 3 nights, the waxing gibbous moon will quite visible in the southeastern sky.  The second brightest planet, Jupiter, will be very close by.  Jupiter will be slightly below the moon Friday and Saturday nights and just above the moon Sunday night.  The moon will appear nearly full Monday and Tuesday nights as full moon occurs Tuesday morning at 10:20 am CDT.  The full moon in May is often called the flower moon.

I hope everyone has a safe and enjoyable holiday weekend.  Be safe, drink lots of water and do take precautions from the sun and the hot temperatures.

Bob

Previous Blog Entries

NOAA Issues 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
Thursday, May 24, 2018 2:48 PM

Forecasters with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center are forecasting a 75-percent chance that the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season will be near- or above-normal. Forecasters predict a 35 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 25 percent chance of a below-normal season for the upcoming hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30.

NOAA's forecasters predict a 70-percent likelihood of 10 to 16 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).  An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.

FF.png

According to NOAA, the possibility of a weak El Nino developing, along with near-average sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, are two of the factors driving this year's outlook. These factors are set upon a backdrop of atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are conducive to hurricane development and have been producing stronger Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995.

Hallow.png 
In addition to the Atlantic hurricane season outlook, NOAA also issued seasonal hurricane outlooks for the eastern and central Pacific basins. An 80 percent chance of a near- or above-normal season is predicted for both the eastern and central Pacific regions. The eastern Pacific outlook calls for a 70-percent probability of 14 to 20 named storms, of which 7 to 12 are expected to become hurricanes, including 3 to 7 major hurricanes. The central Pacific outlook calls for a 70-percent probability of 3 to 6 tropical cyclones, which includes tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.

NOAA will update the 2018 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, just prior to the peak of the season.

National Hurricane Center forecasters are currently monitoring a strong tropical disturbance located in the western Caribbean Sea.  In a Thursday afternoon update, forecasters indicated a broad surface low pressure system was drifting slowly northward over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, with the system becoming better defined. Although showers and thunderstorms, along with strong gusty winds, remain primarily over the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development through early next week, and a subtropical or tropical depression is likely to form by late Saturday over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Friday afternoon, if necessary.  Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across western Cuba and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast into early next week. In addition, the threat of rip currents will steadily increase along the Gulf coast from Florida westward to Louisiana over the Memorial Day weekend.

National Hurricane Center forecasters are giving this system a 90 percent chance for subtropical or tropical development over the next 5 days.

This system is tracking to the north and poses no threat to the Texas coast.

Bob2.png​Bob

Tropics Heating Up. Same Thing for Our Temperature in the Coming Days.
Tuesday, May 22, 2018 5:46 PM

National Hurricane Center forecasters continue to closely monitor a broad area of clouds and showers which extend from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba to the Florida peninsula.  This activity is being generated by a surface area of low pressure centered just east of Belize.
 
Bob2.png
RAMMB-CIRA 05/22/18  4:15 pm CDT 

NHC forecasters point out strong winds in the upper over this region are expected to limit organization of this system during the next couple of days.  However, some gradual subtropical or tropical development is possible late this week while the system moves slowly northward into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible across western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and much of Florida during the next several days.

NHC forecasters are currently giving this system a 40 percent chance for tropical or subtropical development over the next 5 days.

Tuesday's suite of global forecast solutions are again calling for this system, whether it is tropical or not, to slowly track to the north over the next few days.  The system is forecast to make landfall along the Gulf coast, somewhere between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, sometime around Saturday or Sunday. As of now, this system is forecast to stay well east of Texas, having no direct impact on our region's weather.

FMA.png
Mostly sunny, warm and humid weather is forecast Wednesday, continuing through the upcoming weekend.  An isolated rain shower or two cannot be ruled out for areas east of Interstate 35 Wednesday and Thursday.  Otherwise, the weather pattern is shaping up to be dry.  High temperatures in the low 90s Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to rise to the middle 90s Friday and Saturday.

A July-like weather pattern is forecast to develop across the region beginning Sunday as a strong ridge of high pressure over Mexico spreads north across Texas.  This powerful ridge is forecast to persist throughout the week, causing sunny and dry weather, along with July-like temperatures.  High temperatures Sunday through Wednesday are forecast to be in the upper 90s.  There are indications readings could reach or even possibly top 100 degrees next Thursday and Friday.

Forecast solutions call for the ridge to begin weakening next weekend, which should cause the temperature to decrease.

Keep the water and iced tea handy.  Summer's heat is on the way!

Bob

Drier and Warmer Weather Expected throughout the Week. Keeping an Eye on the Gulf.
Monday, May 21, 2018 3:19 PM

Rain showers and thunderstorms developed across the region Sunday as a trough of low pressure in the middle atmosphere tracked northeast out of Mexico.  With a moist and unstable atmosphere in place, widespread rain and thunderstorms spread across the entire region.  While most totals generally averaged between 0.25 and 0.5 inches, some spots received between 1.5 and 2 inches.  LCRA's highest gauged total as of 3 pm was 2.84 inches at a location near Moulton, in northern Lavaca County.  An LCRA gauge near Muldoon, in western Fayette County recorded 2.49 inches.

NWS estimate of rain falling between 2 pm Saturday and 2 pm Monday:
FF.png

 (Map courtesy National Weather Service)

Monday's analysis showed a broad, weak area of low pressure lingering over south central and southeastern Texas.  Circulation around the low was pulling considerable Gulf moisture north into the coastal plains and Central Texas.  Early this afternoon, radar showed scattered rain showers and thunderstorms occurring across the coastal plains region, extending north into parts of Central Texas.  This activity is predicted to increase in areal coverage and spread north toward the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor region later this afternoon and early evening.  The rain activity is forecast to persist into this evening, then diminish after sunset.  The probability for rain will range from 60 percent across the coastal plains to the near 30 percent across the Austin and Central Texas region to just 20 percent across the Hill Country.  Rain amounts from today's rains are forecast to total between 0.5 and 1 inch across the coastal plains region and less than a half inch at most other locations.  Isolated heavier totals will be possible.  The threat for severe thunderstorms appears to be low.  Today's sky will be mostly cloudy across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast and partly cloudy across the Hill Country.  The temperature will generally warm to the mid and upper 80s.  The chance for rain will diminish after sunset.  The low temperature Tuesday morning will be in the upper 60s.

Forecast solutions call for a drier weather pattern to take shape Tuesday as the trough of low pressure moves off to the east.  However, lingering moisture will cause a slight chance for a few scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms for areas to the east of Interstate 35.  The probability for rain will only be 20 percent.  Expect a mostly sunny sky across the region with the temperature warming close to 90 degrees.

Mostly sunny, dry and warm weather conditions are forecast Wednesday through Friday as a broad, stable ridge of high pressure spreads over Texas out of the southeastern U.S.  The temperature looks to reach the low 90s Wednesday and Thursday and the middle 90s on Friday.

The outlook for the upcoming holiday weekend calls for continued sunny, dry and hot weather as the high pressure ridge consolidates and strengthens across northern Mexico and the southwestern US.  Daily high temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 90s.  Longer-range solutions call for this sunny, dry and hot pattern to persist next Tuesday through Friday.  Daily high temperatures are forecast to be in the middle to upper 90s.

We will need to keep a close eye on potential weather developments in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend and next week.  (See tropical section below).  Some of today's forecast solutions call for an area of low pressure to develop over the central Gulf of Mexico this weekend, with the system moving toward the north-northwest  early next week.  This system is not forecast to track towards the Texas coast, but it might come as far west as Louisiana.  The circulation around the low could potentially bring some tropical moisture to parts of Southeast Texas next week.  Sinking air on the periphery of the system could also affect our temperatures.  Stay tuned for more details on this situation over the next few days.

National Hurricane Center Issues Special Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center forecasters are monitoring a widespread area of clouds and showers extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba and the Florida peninsula.  These clouds and showers are associated with the interaction of a large upper-level low pressure system with a weak surface trough.  While environmental conditions are expected to be
unfavorable for development during the next couple of days, some gradual development is possible later this week while the system moves into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico.   Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible across western Cuba and Florida over the next several days.  NHC forecasters are giving this system a 20 percent chance for tropical development over the next 5 days.

Bob2.png RAMMB – CIRA 05/21/18  2:30 pm CDT

Bob

Not Quite as Hot through Tuesday Along with a Slight Chance for Rain.
Friday, May 18, 2018 4:49 PM

It's been a hot week across Central and South Texas, with the temperature climbing to the upper 90s at many locations.  This week's temperatures have been some of the hottest observed since last August.  High temperatures in the upper 90s are about ten degrees above normal and are more typical of July, rather than the middle of May.

This week's summer-like heat has been driven by a strong ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere that spread over Texas out of northern Mexico early in the week.  Friday morning's weather maps showed the ridge was still in place, but it is beginning to move off to the east due to a large trough of low pressure moving into western US.  The ridge will cause another day of very hot temperatures today.  However, a slow downward temperature trend is predicted Saturday through the middle of next week as the ridge stays off to the east.

Despite the overall hot and stable pattern, weather radar at mid-afternoon showed a small area of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms located over the western Hill Country, from around San Angelo to Brady and Junction.  This area of rain was tracking to the northeast at around 15 mph.  Short-range forecasts call for the area of clouds and rain to hold together as they move across the Hill Country this afternoon.  There is a slight chance the rain and storms could possibly reach the Interstate 35 corridor by late afternoon.  Rain amounts are forecast to generally average less than a quarter of an inch.  Some of the storms may produce gusty winds and dangerous lightning.

Away from this area of rain and thunderstorms, this afternoon's weather will be sunny and quite hot.  High temperatures in Austin and across Central Texas are forecast to reach the mid to upper 90s.  Lower 90s are forecast across the coastal plains.  Expect a south wind at 10-20 mph with occasional gusts to 25 mph.

This evening and tonight, there will be a slight chance for scattered thunderstorms across the western and northern Hill Country.  This is from thunderstorms possibly developing late this afternoon along the dry line over West Texas.  Should thunderstorms develop, some of them may be severe, producing large hail and strong winds.  For Central Texas and the middle Texas coast, expect quiet weather conditions.  Lows Saturday morning will be in the low 70s.

Saturday's weather is shaping up to be mostly sunny, dry and hot.  High temperatures look to generally be in the low and middle 90s.  There will be a nice southerly breeze at 10-20 mph. throughout the day.  Once again, there will be a slight chance for thunderstorms across the Hill Country Saturday night due to storms potentially building along the West Texas dry line Saturday afternoon.  Should any of these storms spread into the Hill Country, some of them may contain large hail and strong winds.  Dry weather is forecast across the rest of the region Saturday night.

With the ridge weakening and a large trough of low pressure setting up over the western and southwestern US Sunday through Tuesday, the atmosphere across Texas is forecast to become a bit more unstable.  Increasing moisture off the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico will lead to more clouds and a slight chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms each day.   As of now, this pattern is not shaping up to be favorable for producing significant totals of rain, with most amounts only averaging around a quarter inch.  For Sunday through Tuesday, expect a partly cloudy sky with a 20-30 percent chance for scattered mainly afternoon and evening rain showers and thunderstorms.  Daily high temperatures will be around 90 degrees while low temperatures will be in the low 70s.

NWS rainfall forecast for the period 7 pm Friday through 7 pm Wednesday
Rain5.png
A sunny, dry and warmer weather pattern is forecast next Wednesday through Friday.  High temperatures are forecast to return to the low and middle 90s.

Long-range forecasts for the Memorial Day weekend currently call for mostly sunny, dry and hot weather conditions across the region as a large ridge of high pressure sets up across northern Mexico and the southern Rockies.  High temperatures are forecast to generally be in the middle 90s.

Have a good weekend.

Bob

The National Weather Service Issues an Updated Outlook for Summer and Fall
Thursday, May 17, 2018 5:24 PM

The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center issued its monthly updated seasonal outlook on Thursday.  The outlook included an updated outlook for June and this summer.

Climate Prediction Center forecasters are calling for increased odds for above normal temperatures in June, throughout the summer and this fall.  CPC's outlooks don't indicate how far above normal our temperatures will be; just whether they will be above or below normal.

In regards to rainfall, CPC forecasters did not see any strong trend one way or another this summer.  Their outlook calls for equal chances for above normal, below normal or near normal rainfall in June and throughout the summer.  This is quite interesting, in light of the current drought across the Texas Panhandle and the recent trend of drier than normal weather in Central and Southeast Texas.

500MB.gif

CPC's updated outlook shows increased odds for above normal rainfall across all of Texas this fall and winter due to higher odds for the development of El Nino sometime in September or October.  El Nino's often bring a pattern of above normal rainfall to much of Texas in the fall and winter seasons.

CPCpoutlk.png
Despite the outlook showing no trend for rainfall this summer, CPC's updated 3-month drought outlook released Thursday does not paint as positive of a rainfall picture as the seasonal outlook.  The product calls for drought development across Central Texas and the Hill Country this summer.  With drought already in place, drought persistence is forecast for much of the middle Texas coast.  Apparently the forecasters who put this outlook together are not optimisitc for signficant rainfall across Central Texas this summer.

Hallow.png

The current drier than normal pattern is not by any means a lock as we move into the summer.  But as of now, the rain outlook does not appear to be all that optimistic.

Bob

Summer-Like Temperatures Expected Thursday through Saturday.
Wednesday, May 16, 2018 5:59 PM

Summer-like temperatures will be in place Thursday and Friday as a ridge of high pressure moves back over the state.  Sinking air associated with the ridge, combined with strong sunshine and dry soils will allow the temperature to climb to some of the highest levels seen so far this year.  High temperatures both days are forecast to generally be in the mid-90s, although the mercury could hit the upper 90s at a few spots near the Interstate 35 corridor.

Forecast high temperatures Thursday:
FF.png
Forecast high temperatures Friday:
FMA.png
Forecast solutions call for high temperatures to remain in the middle 90s Saturday, but fall to around 88-90 degrees Sunday as clouds increase and the high pressure ridge weakens.

Do note, the temperature at Austin-Camp Mabry reached 97 degrees Wednesday.  Austin-Bergstrom recorded a high temperature of 96.  Both readings are 10 degrees above normal for the middle of May.

Longer-range solutions call for high temperatures to be around 90 degrees for most of next week.

Bob

Say So Long to Spring. Summer-Like Weather has Set Up Early this Year.
Monday, May 14, 2018 3:10 PM

Welcome to summer!  Over the past week, the weather pattern across Texas quickly transitioned from spring to summer as a broad ridge of high pressure set up over the state.  The combination of high temperatures around 90 degrees and very humid air spreading north from the Gulf has made weather conditions feel much more like late June rather than the middle of May.  And long-range forecast solutions indicate the current hot and humid pattern is likely here to stay, with no additional shots of cool air coming our way through the end of the month.  So even though the calendar says summer won't officially begin until June 21st, in reality, it's already here.

Monday's weather maps showed a broad, stable ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere stretching from Central Texas to the Tennessee Valley.  The ridge was causing a dry, stable and very summer-like weather pattern across the eastern two-thirds of the state.  Meanwhile, a broad trough of low pressure is currently in place across the western US.  Weak disturbances rotating around the trough are moving across New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle, helping to fire scattered thunderstorms along the West Texas dry line.  This pattern is forecast to hold through Wednesday, before the ridge of high pressure spreads back to the west, ending the development of West Texas thunderstorms.

Midday satellite images showed considerable clouds covering much of South and Central Texas due to one of the passing disturbances moving across West Texas.  These clouds were not producing any rain and none is forecast this afternoon across Central Texas or the middle Texas coast.  However, expect the sky to stay mostly cloudy sky this afternoon and tonight.  Today's temperature is predicted to warm close to 90 degrees.  There will be a slight chance for a couple of scattered thunderstorms spreading into parts of the western and northern Hill Country out of West Texas late this afternoon and evening.  The probability for rain will only be 20 percent.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, expect widespread nighttime and morning clouds giving way to a mostly sunny sky in the afternoon.  No rain is forecast across the eastern Hill Country, Central Texas or the middle Texas coast.  However, there will be 20 percent chance for late afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the western and northern Hill Country. Rain amounts, if any, should total around a quarter inch, or less.  High temperatures both days will be in the low 90s.  Low temperatures will be in the low 70s.  The wind will be fairly light both days, with south winds in the range of 5-10 mph.

For Thursday and Friday, expect mostly sunny, dry and even warmer weather as the center of the high pressure ridge sets up directly over Central Texas.  High temperatures both days are forecast to generally be in the middle-90s.  A few spots across the Hill Country and Central Texas could even see readings reach the upper 90s.

No significant change in the weather is predicted for Central and South Texas this coming weekend.  The center of the high pressure ridge is forecast to move from Central Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley.  This should cause high temperatures to drop back to the low-90s at most locations.  Forecast solutions do call for a weak Canadian cold front to sink south from the southern Plains states into North and Northwest Texas on Saturday.  The front is forecast to stall well north of Central  Texas.  This boundary could led to the development of a few scattered thunderstorms across the northern Hill Country late Saturday.

Looking ahead to next week, mostly sunny and hot weather conditions look to continue.  There are some indications we may see a slight chance for rain develop the latter part of the week when another large trough of low pressure sets up over the western and Southwestern US, bringing occasional disturbances into Texas.  High temperatures are forecast to be mostly in the low 90s.

Early-Season Tropical Disturbance Over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico

A deep-layer non-tropical area of low pressure located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico continues to produce widespread cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms across much of Florida and southeastern Georgia.  Although this system could still acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics while it moves slowly northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days, the low has not shown signs of increased organization during the past 24 hours.  Regardless of subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system will produce locally heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Florida and the southeastern United States during the next few days.  National Hurricane Center forecasters are giving this system a 20 percent chance for development over the next 48 hours and a 30 percent chance for development over the next 5 days.

This system poses no threat to Texas as it is being pulled to the north-northwest by a trough of low pressure moving across the Tennessee Valley.

Bob2.png
RAMMB – CIRA  2:15 pm CST 05/14/2018

Bob

May Weather Trends Summer-Like with Just a Slight Chance for Rain Next Week.
Friday, May 11, 2018 3:54 PM

A summer-like weather pattern set up across Texas earlier this week when a ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere spread over Texas out of the Desert Southwest.  Friday's analysis showed the ridge was still centered across Texas, while a large trough of low pressure was beginning to take shape over the western US.  Forecast solutions call for the ridge of high pressure to remain over Texas and the south central US through the weekend and most of next week.  This means more summer-like weather and heat for our region for at least the next ten-day period.  Some slight chances for rain do look to take enter the forecast the middle of next week when weak atmospheric disturbances begin moving out of the Southwestern US.  Unfortunately, significant rain is not expected.

This afternoon through Sunday, we will see a pattern of late night and early morning low clouds, followed by mostly sunny and warm conditions in the afternoon.  It will be breezy this afternoon and Saturday, with south winds in the range of 10-20 mph.  High temperatures will generally be near 88-90 degrees each day.  Low temperatures will be in the mid-60s across the Hill Country and near 70 degrees across the rest of the area.

For Monday and Tuesday, expect little overall change in the weather pattern for most of the region.  However, a couple of isolated late afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible both days across the western and northern Hill Country.  Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to become active along the West Texas dry line both days and there will be a slight chance for a couple of the thunderstorms to push east into western Hill Country.  For the majority of the region, expect more mostly sunny and warm weather with high temperatures staying close to 90 degrees.

For next Wednesday and Thursday, there will be a slight change in the pattern that looks to be bring at least a slight chance for rain showers and thunderstorms to much of the region.  The ridge of high pressure is forecast to weaken, allowing some weak disturbances to track into Texas out of the Southwest.  These disturbances are forecast to help push the West Texas dry line east into the Hill Country.  There will be a 20 percent chance for scattered thunderstorms each afternoon and evening across the Hill Country and most of Central Texas.  There will also be a slight chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the coastal plains region during this same period as an area of enhanced moisture spreads inland off the Gulf.  Rain amounts are not shaping up to be very heavy late next week, with most totals only averaging around a quarter inch.  High temperatures are forecast to be in the low 90s, with low temperatures around 70 degrees.

Longer-range forecast solutions call for a return to mostly sunny and dry weather next Friday.  A slight chance for rain showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast next weekend and the first half of the following week as additional disturbances spread into Texas out of the Southwest.  Expect high temperatures through the period to be in the low 90s.  No significant change in the temperature is forecast next weekend or the following week.

La Niña has Faded

According to a report from the Climate Prediction Center, this winter's La Niña weather pattern has faded.  Waters in the tropical Pacific have warmed above the threshold for La Niña.  Neutral ENSO conditions are currently being observed and are favored to be in place through summer.  However, CPC forecasters state there is a 50% probability for the development of El Niño by late fall and winter.

A Tropical Depression Develops in the Eastern Pacific

The area of disturbed weather in the eastern Pacific Ocean has strengthened into the season's first tropical depression.  At 10 am CDT, the center of Tropical Depression One-E was located about 1435 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula.  The depression is moving toward the west near 5 mph.  A gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected today and Saturday.  Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.  Strong upper-level winds are expected to cause weakening, and the depression is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight or early Saturday.

Bob2.png 
Catch the Two Brightest Planets this Weekend

Venus and Jupiter are the sky's 2 brightest planets, and they hang on either side of our sky right now – Jupiter in the east and Venus in the west.  Look for Venus in the western sky shortly after the sun goes down.  At the same time you're viewing Venus in the west, look toward the eastern sky and you'll see Jupiter – the second-brightest planet rising above the eastern horizon.  It's as if the two planets are at opposite ends of a seesaw.

Have a good weekend.

Bob

Sunny and Warm Weather Persisting through the Weekend. Some Changes Expected Next Week.
Tuesday, May 8, 2018 6:02 PM


In the wake of last week's storm system, a stable early summer-like weather pattern has set up across Texas and the south central US.  This pattern is the result of a broad ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere that stretches from California to Louisiana.  At the surface, a dome of Canadian high pressure centered over the western Gulf of Mexico is also influencing our region's weather.  Although southerly breezes have returned to our region, the air mass is still relatively dry, with dewpoint temperatures in the 50s.  Over the next couple of days, this dry air mass will be replaced an air mass with higher humidity.

Tuesday's forecast solutions call for continued sunny, dry and warm weather conditions across Central and South Texas Tuesday through Sunday as the ridge of high pressure remains in place over the region.  High temperatures look to be very consistent, generally around 88-90 degrees.  With moisture levels increasing, low temperatures will trend to the upper 60s beginning Friday morning and continuing through the weekend.

Some changes in the pattern are showing in the outlook for early next week when the ridge of high pressure over Texas weakens and a trough of low pressure pushes across North Texas out of the Desert Southwest.  This trough is forecast to generate scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region Monday through Wednesday.  As of now, this rain is not expected to be as organized or as heavy as what our area saw last week.

The National Weather Service's rainfall forecast for next Sunday evening through Tuesday evening calls for general totals of 0.25-0.50 inches.

Pic1.gifLonger-range forecasts indicate a slight chance to a chance for rain shower may continue late week as well. Stay tuned for more details.

Bob
View RSS feed

rss-icon.gif