Monday’s forecast data continues to call for little change in the pattern of extreme heat, no rain, and extreme fire weather conditions this week. All of Texas is being influenced by a stubborn heat dome covering the southern U.S. and northern Mexico. The heat dome is forecast to remain entrenched across Texas this week, continuing into the upcoming weekend. With the heat dome in place, expect continued sunny and dry weather, with persistent extreme temperatures.
- High temperatures today through Friday are predicted to be between 103 and 107 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and between 98 and 102 degrees across the coastal plains.
A developing surface low pressure area over the central and southern Rockies mid-week is expected to cause stronger south-southwesterly surface winds across our region. Sustained wind speeds to 15-20 mph with peak gusts up to 25-30 mph are forecast Wednesday and Thursday. These breezy conditions will be favorable for an increasing volume of fire starts as well as the growth and spread of ongoing wildfires.
The outlook for this weekend and next week unfortunately shows very little change as the heat dome is predicted to remain in place across Texas and the southern U.S. However, there are some signs the heat dome may weaken slightly in intensity. As a result, temperature forecasts are pointing toward a very slight reduction in daily high temperatures.
- High temperatures this weekend and early next week are predicted to be near between 102-105 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and between 98 and 100 degrees across the coastal plains.
- High temperatures next Wednesday through Friday are predicted to be between 100 and 104 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and between 97 and 100 degrees across the coastal plains.
Looking out further in the week of August 21st, high temperatures are forecast to be around 100-102 degrees. As of now, no rain is forecast as the heat dome remains over Texas.
A Very High Fire Danger Will Continue this Week
The combination of very low relative humidity levels, extremely dry fuels, and gusty winds are expected to cause very critical fire weather conditions across the area throughout the week.
Confidence is increasing tomorrow though Thursday will bring conditions even more conducive to wildfire starts/spread than we’ve seen so far this season. Although there have been a lot of Red Flag Warnings recently, the next three days will feature increased winds which will likely make fire weather conditions even more critical. According to the National Weather Service, the next three days will likely bring the most critical fire weather conditions we’ve seen thus far this season, especially for locations north of I-10. Red Flag Warnings will likely continue through the week.
The National Weather Service has posted a Red Flag Warning for Central Texas, the eastern northern Hill Country starting at noon Monday, continuing until 11 pm Monday night. A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. The combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior.
Residents across all of Central Texas are urged to exercise extra care with any outdoor activities that could inadvertently ignite a wildfire.
Tropical Weather Outlook
Weather conditions remain quiet across the tropical Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico. There are no systems in place which pose a threat for tropical development over the next seven days.
The Perseid Meteor Shower will Peak Saturday Night
The Perseid meteor shower is underway and it is expected to be at its peak this Saturday night, August 12th. This weekend, the sky will be moonless, leading to a darker sky and better viewing conditions. In early evening the meteors will be few, but those that do appear will be long, lovely Earth-grazers skimming far across the top of the atmosphere. As the hours pass and the shower’s radiant point (in northern Perseus near Cassiopeia) rises higher in the northeast, the meteors will become shorter and more numerous — the most so from midnight to dawn.
To get the most out of viewing the meteor shower, bring a reclining lawn chair to a dark, open spot where no local lights get in your eyes. Lie back and gaze up into the stars. Be patient. As your eyes adapt to the dark, you may see a meteor every minute or so on average as night grows late. You’ll see fewer under light pollution, but the brightest ones will still shine through.
The best direction to look is wherever your sky is the darkest, usually overhead. The shower’s radiant is the meteors’ perspective point of origin, if you could see them coming from far away in space. But the meteors only become visible in their last second or two when they rip into the upper atmosphere, and this can happen anywhere in your sky.
Enjoy the show.