A late August “cold front” pushed through the area Sunday and Sunday night and has put an end to our recent streak of extreme temperatures. Sunday’s readings were among some of the hottest of the summer and were very close to all-time records. Showers and scattered thunderstorms developed ahead of and along the cold front over the Hill Country and the northern counties of Central Texas. Rain amounts generally averaged around a tenth of an inch, but there were a couple of isolated totals between 0.75 and 1 inch across the northern Hill Country.
Monday’s analysis showed the cold front located just offshore of the middle and upper Texas coast. Light north and northeasterly breezes were blowing across the region. Although the cold front is south of the area, there will be a slight chance for a few scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Hill Country and Central Texas region this afternoon as a weak wave of low pressure tracks southeast out of West Texas. The probability for rain will be 20 percent, and rain amounts should only average around a tenth of an inch. A somewhat better coverage or scattered rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast for areas south of Interstate 10. Here, the chance for rain will be 40 percent and rain amounts should average between a tenth and a quarter of an inch.
Otherwise, Monday’s weather will feature a mostly sunny sky and slightly lower temperatures. Highs are forecast to range from the mid-90s across the northern Hill Country, to near 98-102 degrees across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast. Lows Tuesday morning will range from the upper 60s north, to the mid-70s across Central Texas, to the upper 70s near the coast.
Sunny, dry, and hot weather is forecast across the region Tuesday and through the upcoming weekend. The center of the summer heat dome is currently located over the Desert Southwest and is forecast to remain over that general area into the weekend. Our region will be on the eastern periphery of the heat dome. A northerly wind flow in the middle and upper atmosphere will keep our atmosphere dry and quite stable. As a result, no rain is forecast.
Temperatures will be hot this week, but not quite to the level we saw over the weekend.
- Tuesday will see the least hot readings of the week, with high temperatures generally in the upper 90s.
- High temperatures Wednesday through Sunday are forecast to generally be near 100-102 degrees.
Looking ahead to Labor Day and early next week, forecasts call for a slight chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms for areas located east of Interstate 35 as a weak area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere develops over the northwestern Gulf. The low is predicted to pull an area of tropical moisture inland, resulting in a 20-30 percent chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rain amounts, if any, are predicted to stay below a quarter inch. Unfortunately, the slight chance for rain is not forecast to extend into Central Texas or the Hill Country.
Aside from this slight chance for rain, more hot and dry weather is forecast next week as the center of the heat dome stays out to the west or across the southern Plains.
High temperatures next week are forecast to remain near 100-103 degrees at most locations.
Fire Weather Concerns
Critical to near-critical fire weather conditions will be in place throughout the week due to extremely dry fuels and the lack of rain. 20 foot winds of 10 to 15 mph with a few gusts to 25 mph and minimum relative humidity levels of 15 to 25 percent are forecast each afternoon.
Tropical Weather Outlook
There are currently no tropical weather concerns for the western Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical Storm Idalia, located just off the western tip of Cuba poses no threat to Texas. As of 1 pm CDT, the tropical storm was moving toward the north near 8 mph. A northward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a faster north-northeast motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Idalia is forecast to pass near or over western Cuba tonight, over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday, and reach the Gulf coast of Florida on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph with higher gusts. Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane later today and a dangerous major hurricane over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Wednesday.
Hurricane Franklin, a category hurricane is located about 475 miles southwest of Bermuda, moving toward the north near 9 mph. This northward to north-northeastward motion with a slightly faster forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to pass well to the west of Bermuda on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is possible today, but gradual weakening is expected to begin later Tuesday.
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in the next day or so. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. This system is looking like it will bend north into the open Atlantic and not be a threat to the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico.
August Blue Supermoon this Wednesday Night
Full Moon will occur at 8:36 pm CDT Wednesday night and it should be quite special! The August full Moon will be the third supermoon of 2023, and it will be the biggest full moon of 2023. In addition, being the second full Moon of this month, it is also a so-called blue moon. Having two supermoons in the same month is relatively rare: last time was in 2018, next time will be in 2037.