Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

Rain showers and thunderstorms spread across the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor over the weekend. A few of the storms produced damaging winds and some small hail. Rainfall generally averaged around a half inch, with several isolated totals just over an inch. Southeast of Austin, totals between Bastrop and Bay City were considerably lower, averaging around a tenth of an inch or less. It’s interesting to note an area of heavy, persistent rain developed across the northern counties of Southeast Texas late Sunday night. Totals of 7 to near 12 inches of rain fell over the area between College Station, Huntsville, and Lake Livingston.

NWS Estimate of Rain Falling Between 7 am Friday and 7 am Monday:

Map Courtesy NOAA’s West Gulf River Forecast Center

A break from the wet and unsettled weather pattern is forecast to take place Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening as a weak ridge of high pressure temporarily sets up across Texas. Southeasterly breezes off the Gulf of Mexico are pulling a very moist air mass inland from the Gulf of Mexico, and this is leading to warm and very humid weather conditions. Expect a mostly sunny sky Monday afternoon. Low clouds look to spread across the area Monday night into Tuesday morning. In fact, some patchy will also be possible. The sky should become mostly sunny Tuesday afternoon.

• Monday’s temperature is predicted to reach the mid and upper 80s.
• Lows Tuesday morning are forecast to be in the mid and upper 60s.
• High temperatures Tuesday are forecast to be in the upper 80s to 90 degrees.
• Lows Wednesday morning are predicted to be around 70-72 degrees.

A chance for scattered afternoon and evening rain showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast Wednesday when a small trough of low pressure is forecast to push east out of Far West Texas. This system is expected to cause thunderstorm development along the dry line across West Texas Wednesday afternoon. These developing thunderstorms are forecast to spread east across the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country regions late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. Some of these thunderstorms may be strong to severe, capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. The probability for rain and storms across the Hill Country will be near 40 percent late Wednesday afternoon and evening. At the same time, isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are also forecast to develop across Central Texas and the coastal plains region Wednesday afternoon and evening as the wave of low pressure moves over the area. The probability for rain will also be near 40 percent. Rain amounts Wednesday through Wednesday evening are predicted to average around a quarter inch or less. Wednesday’s temperature should climb to the low and mid-80s.

The most favorable period for rain showers and thunderstorms is expected to happen Thursday through Thursday night when a large trough of low pressure dips southeast into North Texas out of the southern Rockies. Forecasts call for an area of showers and thunderstorms to develop across the Concho Valley and Northwest Texas early Thursday afternoon. The area of rain and storms is expected to expand in coverage and intensity as it pushes east into Central Texas and the coastal plains regions late Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. Some of these storms may be strong to severe. The probability for rain will around 60-70 percent Thursday and Thursday night. The precipitation is forecast to exit to the east and southeast Friday morning as a cold front brings in drier and just slightly cooler air.

Rainfall forecasts through early Friday morning call for totals to generally average between 0.5 and 1 inch, with isolated totals to near 2 inches possible.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Monday through 7 pm Friday:

Just a slight chance for rain is forecast Friday as the weak cold front pushes south into the Gulf of Mexico. Expect a partly cloudy sky with highs in the low 80s.

The outlook for the upcoming weekend calls for a partly cloudy sky and 30 percent chance for scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms both days. Rain amounts are forecast to average around a quarter inch. Warm and humid air looks to return in earnest this weekend. Expect high temperatures in the low and mid-80s, with lows in the upper 60s.

The outlook for next week calls for generally dry weather and noticeably warmer temperatures as a ridge of high pressure builds north across Texas. While a few showers can’t be ruled out, no widespread or heavy rain is anticipated. Daily high temperatures look to be around 90 degrees. Highs in the low 90s will be possible next Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows are forecast to be in the low 70s.

Bob

We are quickly moving into an active weather pattern that is expected to bring rounds of rain showers and thunderstorms to much of the Hill Country, Central Texas, and coastal regions for the next several days. Each of the periods of rain and thunderstorms will offer some potential for severe weather along with locally heavy rain. Forecasts are indicating this active pattern will last well into the month of May as more waves of low pressure approach from the west.

Friday

The first round of rain and thunderstorms developed early Friday morning across the Concho Valley ahead of a weak trough of low pressure that was pushing east out of West Texas. This area of thunderstorms tracked northeast across the northern Hill Country between Mason, Burnet, and Lampasas ands south to the Austin area Friday morning. There were radar indications the storms may have produced some large hail and strong winds between Burnet, Lampasas, and Temple. The storms are forecast to continue across this general area through mid-afternoon, then push northeast into East and Northeast Texas late Friday afternoon.

For Friday afternoon and Friday night, expect a mostly cloudy sky and breezy conditions. A fairly strong stable layer in lower atmosphere should limit the development of scattered shower and thunderstorm development. Forecasters will be closely watching for possible thunderstorm development mid to late afternoon along the Dry Line across the Big Country and northern Hill Country regions. The probability for thunderstorm development will only be 20 percent. However, any storms which develop will likely become severe. Expect southerly winds at 10-20 mph, with occasional gusts to 35 mph. Friday’s high temperature will be in the low 80s.

Saturday through Sunday

A moist and fairly unstable atmosphere is predicted to be in place across the region Saturday. However, a stable layer in the atmosphere is expected to limit thunderstorm development at most locations. Should a break in this stable layer develop, strong to severe thunderstorms will likely develop. The probability for rain and storms will only be near 20 percent. Morning clouds will give way to partly cloudy and windy conditions in the afternoon. Expect southerly winds at 15-25 mph, with gusts up to 40/45 mph. Saturday’s temperature is forecast to reach the low and mid-80s.

Confidence is quite high a large area of rain and thunderstorms will spread across the region Saturday night into Sunday morning as a strong wave of low pressure pushes east out of West Texas and New Mexico. Forecasts call for an area of thunderstorms to develop across western Texas Saturday evening, with the activity eventually merging into a broad line of showers and strong to severe thunderstorms around or after midnight. The rain and storms are predicted to spread east across the Hill Country after midnight Saturday night, moving into the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor around sunrise Sunday morning. The area of rain and storms should spread east across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. Some of storms may be severe. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Hill Country under a Slight Risk, or 2 out of 5 risk, for severe thunderstorms through daybreak Sunday. The primary severe weather threats will be large hail and damaging winds.

The rain is expected to taper off across the Hill Country and I-35 corridor by Sunday afternoon, and across the rest of the region by Sunday evening. Lingering instability will cause a slight chance for a few spotty showers behind the main line. Rain amounts through Sunday evening are forecast to average around 1-1.5 inches across much of the area. Lower totals are forecast for areas south of Interstate 10.

Monday through Late Next Week

Periods of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast through late next week as additional small waves of low pressure move across Texas out of Mexico and the Desert Southwest. Some of these storms may be strong to severe.

Monday through Wednesday, the probability for rain looks to be around 30-40 percent. Rain amounts each day are predicted to average around a quarter inch. Forecasts point to an increased chance for rain and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday as a weak cold front pushes south into the area. As of now, widespread rain amounts of 1-1.5 inches are forecast. High temperatures next week are forecast to remain mostly in the low and mid-80s.

The National Weather Service’s total rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates much of the area could see between 1 and 3 inches, with even higher totals possible across the northern Hill Country.

NWS Total Rain Forecast for Period through 7 pm Friday, May 3rd:

Looking out beyond late next week, forecasts show a chance for rain remaining in the forecast for the week of May 6th.

Bob

Monday started off pleasantly cool, with temperatures in the 40s and low 50s. According to LCRA’s Hydromet, several spots around Brownwood recorded lows near 40 degrees. The Canadian air mass which allowed for the cooler readings this morning and over the weekend is unfortunately already on its was out. Southerly breezes have returned, meaning warmer and more humid air will soon be returning to the area.

Dry weather is forecast this afternoon through Thursday as a stable ridge of high pressure spreads over Texas out of Mexico and the Desert Southwest. At the surface, light southerly breezes are predicted for this afternoon and tonight. Wind speeds are forecast to increase to 10-15 mph, with gusts to 25 mph beginning Tuesday morning. The breezy conditions look to continue Tuesday night through Wednesday.

Expect a mostly sunny sky Monday afternoon. Low clouds look to develop across the eastern Hill Country and most of Central Texas after midnight Monday night continuing through Tuesday morning. The sky is forecast to become partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon. A similar pattern can be expected Tuesday night through Thursday.

• High temperatures Monday are forecast to be in the low 70s.
• Lows Tuesday morning are predicted to be in the low 50s across the Hill Country, and in the mid-50s at most other locations.
• High temperatures Tuesday are forecast to be near 78-80 degrees.
• Lows Wednesday morning will generally be in the mid-60s.
• High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to be in the low and mid-80s.
• Lows Thursday morning will be near 68-70 degrees.

Some changes in the weather pattern are forecast to take place Friday and through the weekend as the ridge of high pressure over Texas weakens and shifts to the east. At the same time, forecasters will be closely monitoring a couple of waves of low pressure that are predicted to move from the southern Rockies to the central Plains. These two systems are forecast to bring a few rounds of rain showers and strong to severe thunderstorms to northern Texas and the Plains states Thursday through Sunday. Some of these storms could possibly extend south into the northern half of the Hill Country and Central Texas during this period.

Thursday’s weather is expected to be partly to mostly cloudy, breezy and warm as moisture increases off the Gulf of Mexico. Southerly winds will be gusting up to 30-35 mph. Expect a high temperature in the low 80s. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the dry line across West Texas Thursday afternoon. There will be a 20 percent chance for a few of these storms to track east to parts of the northern half of the Hill Country late Thursday afternoon. Some of these storms could possibly be strong to severe.

Friday will see a slightly better chance for scattered thunderstorms across the Hill Country and most of Central Texas as the dry line shifts east to the eastern Hill Country. Forecasts call for scattered thunderstorms to develop across the area by afternoon. The probability for thunderstorms will be near 40-50 percent. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, with the primary severe weather threats being large hail and damaging winds. Rain amounts are predicted to  average around a quarter inch. As of now, the thunderstorms are forecast to remain north of the coastal plains. Gusty winds look to continue. Friday’s temperature is forecast to reach the low 80s.

Another chance for scattered thunderstorms is forecast to take place Saturday through Sunday night as the second wave of low pressure drags a Pacific cold front east across the Hill Country and into Central Texas. The probability for rain is predicted to be near 30-40 percent. Once again, some of the storms could be strong to severe. Weekend rain amounts are predicted to average around a quarter inch. Expect a partly to mostly cloudy sky both days. High temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s, with lows only in the low 70s. The majority of the rain activity should stay north of the coastal plains region.

NWS 7-Day Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm, Monday 4/29

Looking ahead to next week, forecast call for mostly sunny and dry weather Monday and Tuesday. A chance for scattered thunderstorm will return to the forecast Wednesday and continue through late week as a large trough of low pressure sets up across the western U.S., causing the dry line to become very active. Expect warm temperatures, with highs in the mid and upper 80s, and lows around 70 degrees.

Bob

Parts of the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor have seen a few passing rain showers since Monday evening. The rain has been light, with totals averaging just a few hundredths of an inch. Meanwhile, little to no rain has fallen over the area located to the east of Interstate 35.

A trough of low pressure moving from the southern to the central Plains states has helped to push a Pacific cold front into the west central Texas. As of early Tuesday afternoon, the front stretched from Stephenville, to Llano, to near Del Rio. The front was separating a dry air mass to the west from a moist and very humid air mass to the east. Despite this change of air mass, the atmosphere overall is still fairly stable, so no significant rain or storms are forecast. The front has slowed its forward progress and is predicted to hold in its current position through Tuesday night. The front is then predicted to lift back to the north Wednesday morning.

For Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night, expect a mostly cloudy to overcast sky for areas along and east of I-35. While a sprinkle or two will be possible, no significant rain is forecast. For most of the Hill Country, the sky will be mostly sunny Tuesday afternoon, then become mostly cloudy Tuesday night.

• High temperatures Tuesday afternoon will include the mid and upper 80s across the Hill Country, with low and mid-80s across Central Texas and the coastal plains.
• Lows Wednesday morning will range from the mid and upper 60s across the Hill Country, to the low 70s across the coastal plains.

Wednesday’s weather is shaping up to be mostly cloudy, warm, and humid. High temperatures are forecast to be around 90-92 degrees across the Hill Country, into the upper 80s across Central Texas, and in the mid-80s across the coastal plains. Lows Thursday morning are forecast to be near 70-72 degrees.

There will be 30 percent chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms for the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening as a couple of weak waves of low pressure push east out of West Texas. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop Thursday afternoon along the dry line across West Texas and move to the east. There are indications some of these storms could be strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Hill Country and Central Texas regions under a Marginal Risk, or 1 out of 5 risk, for severe storms through Thursday night. The primary severe weather risk will be large hail. Spotty rain amounts to around a quarter inch will be possible.

• Thursday is predicted to be a warm day, with highs near 90-92 degrees across the Hill Country, near 90 degrees across Central Texas, and in the mid to upper 80s across the coastal plains.

Friday’s weather will feature morning clouds and a partly cloudy sky in the afternoon. There will be a 20 percent chance for a few scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Friday afternoon. No rain is expected across the coastal region. Friday’s high temperature is forecast to be in the mid and upper 80s.

A wet and unsettled weather pattern is forecast Friday night and this weekend when a Canadian cold front slowly sags south across Texas and a trough of low pressure approaches from the west. Forecasts call for the front to move into the northern Hill Country late Friday afternoon, then stall in the area Friday night. The front is then forecast to get a push south into Central Texas Saturday afternoon and into the coastal region Saturday evening. Widespread overrunning showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the northern Hill Country Friday evening and Friday night, with the activity shifting south with the front Saturday and Saturday night. The probability for rain will be near 80 percent. The rain should taper off from north to south late Saturday night into Sunday morning as the overrunning pattern diminishes. A mostly cloudy sky is predicted for Sunday afternoon.

Forecasts call for the highest totals of rain to occur across the northern Hill Country and the northern counties of Central Texas where totals of 1-2 inches will be possible. Somewhat lower totals are forecast for the southern half of Central Texas and the coastal plains, where totals of 0.25 to 0.75 inches are forecast.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm Tuesday, April 23rd:

Much cooler air will arrive behind Saturday’s cold front.

• High temperatures Sunday will range from the mid-60s across the Hill Country, to the low 70s near the coast.
• High temperatures Monday are  forecast to be in the mid-70s.
• Lows next Monday and Tuesday mornings will include the upper 40s across the Hill Country, the low 50s across Central Texas, and the mid-50s across the coastal plains.

Sunny weather is forecast through the first half of next week. Long-range solutions call for a chance for rain developing next Thursday and Friday. High temperatures are forecast to trend back to the mid and upper 80s for the second half of next week.

Bob

While much focus in the short term will be on today’s solar eclipse (and rightfully so), full attention needs to be placed on an episode of potentially significant severe weather likely to affect Central Texas, the Hill Country, and the coastal Plains region beginning mid to late afternoon, continuing into tonight and again on Tuesday. It should be emphasized that only a short time period may exist between eclipse events and the initiation of strong to severe thunderstorms, so those with outdoor events may wish to encourage quick departures. The next 48 hours look to have the most favorable severe weather setup our area has seen so far this calendar year.

Weather Discussion

While the weather is predicted to stay dry through the eclipse window, changes are forecast to quickly take place by mid-afternoon as moisture increases ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure. High-resolution forecasts call for rain and thunderstorm to develop across the middle Texas coast by early afternoon, with the activity spreading north to parts of Central Texas and the eastern Hill Country during the mid and late afternoon. Forecasts call for the atmosphere to become increasingly unstable this afternoon, and could support the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. Today’s primary severe weather threats will be large hail and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. There will also be a low-end threat for a couple of isolated tornadoes—mainly for areas north and northeast of Austin. The Strom Prediction Center has placed much of the area under a Slight Risk, or 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms through Monday night.

Most forecast solutions call for the thunderstorm activity to weaken early this evening, with a break from rain and storms expected late evening till just after midnight.

Forecasts call for the atmosphere across the region to become increasingly unstable beginning late tonight and toward daybreak Tuesday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are predicted to develop across the area during this time period. Showers and thunderstorms are then forecast to expand in areal coverage through the morning hours and into the afternoon. Several parameters will be in place that are expected to allow some of these storms to become strong and severe. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Austin metro and much of Central Texas under an Enhanced Risk, or a 3 out of 5 risk, for severe thunderstorms. The rest of the region has been placed under a 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms.

While large hail, damaging winds, and dangerous lightning will be the primary severe weather threats, there will also be a secondary threat for isolated tornadoes—mainly in the Enhanced Risk area.

A lull in the precipitation is forecast to take place late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. However, another period of rain and thunderstorms is forecast to occur Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Some of the storms may also be strong to severe. The rain activity is predicted to taper off by midday Wednesday as the trough to our west finally moves off to the northeast.

Do note, moderate to heavy rain will be possible from some of the storms both Monday afternoon and again on Tuesday. A few spots could see heavy downpours which could lead to some isolated flash flooding. In general, totals of 1-1.5 inches are forecast across much of the area through Wednesday morning.

Fingers crossed for some breaks in the clouds to persist for today’s eclipse!

Bob

Here’s an update on weather conditions for Monday’s Total Eclipse, plus an outlook for next week. The weather pattern looks to be trending wet and quite active shortly after Monday’s eclipse.

Eclipse Day Weather Highlights

• The latest forecast solutions are showing little change in the weather outlook for Monday. Forecasts continue to call for a mostly cloudy sky across the region through the midday hours on Monday.
• While some breaks in the low-level clouds will be possible, considerable high-level clouds are still forecast to be in place, creating less than ideal conditions for viewing the eclipse.
• Some fluctuation in the forecast will still be possible over the next couple of days, but chances for optimal sky conditions to view the eclipse will be less than 10 percent.

Forecasts continue to call for a trough of low pressure to move into the Southwestern U.S. late Sunday into Monday.  Out ahead of the trough, southerly winds off the Gulf of Mexico are predicted to increase beginning Sunday evening, causing a surge of moisture and low, dense clouds into Central Texas and the Hill Country. While a few small breaks in the low clouds will be possible by midday Monday, forecasts continue to call for a considerable high-level clouds to also blanket the sky. Unfortunately, even these high clouds are predicted to be somewhat thick and unfavorable for getting a good view of the eclipsed sun.

Any breaks in the clouds that might happen to develop midday will be short-lived. Forecasts call for clouds to quickly thicken up by mid-afternoon. There will be a 50 percent chance scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the region after about 3 pm. Some of these storms may even be strong to severe.

The National Weather Service’s cloud forecast for early Monday afternoon calls for at least 75 percent cloud coverage across the area in its most likely scenario:

Weather Discussion for the Weekend and Next Week

Sunny and breezy weather will be in place Friday afternoon. Expect southerly winds at 10-15 mph, with occasional gusts to 25 mph Friday afternoon through Friday night. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low and mid-80s. Lows Saturday morning will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

On Saturday, a trough of low pressure is forecast to lift northeast from New Mexico up to the Central Plains, dragging a Pacific cold front into the state. Forecasts call for the front to reach the western Hill Country Saturday evening, moving across Central Texas Saturday night. The front is predicted to stall just east of Interstate 35 Sunday morning, then move back to the north as a warm front Saturday night. With limited moisture in place, no rain is forecast with the front.

Saturday’s weather will include widespread morning clouds, followed by a partly cloudy sky in the afternoon. It will be another breezy and warm day. Expect southerly winds at 10-20 mph, with occasional gusts to 30 mph through Saturday evening. Wind speeds should decrease after midnight Saturday night. The sky is predicted to be sunny to partly cloudy on Sunday.

• High temperatures Saturday are forecast to be near 80 degrees.
• Lows Sunday morning will include the low 50s across the Hill Country, the upper 50s to low 60s across Central Texas, and the low 60s across the coastal plains.
• High temperatures Sunday are forecast to be in the low 80s.
• Lows Monday morning will include the mid and upper 50s across the Hill Country, the upper 50s to low 60s across Central Texas, and the mid-60s across the coastal plains.

A large trough of low pressure is predicted to move into the Southwestern U.S. late Sunday and become nearly stationary. As mentioned in the eclipse discussion, flow out ahead of the trough is expected cause a surge of clouds and moisture north into Central Texas and the Hill Country beginning Sunday night, continuing throughout the day on Monday. As moisture levels increase Monday afternoon, an expansive area of light rain showers and scattered thunderstorms is forecast to develop across the region and continue through Monday night. The probability for rain will be around 50 percent. There are early indications some of the developing thunderstorms could be strong to severe. Rain amounts up to a quarter inch are forecast. The Storm Prediction Center is highlighting the northeastern Hill Country and the northern counties of Central Texas, including Austin, for the possibility of severe storms:

There will be an increased chance for periods of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms across the entire region Tuesday through Wednesday as the southwestern trough slowly wobbles east into West Texas. The combination of the slow-moving trough and a very moist flow off the Gulf of Mexico is expected to result in multiple rounds of rain showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Wednesday. Moderate to occasionally heavy rain is forecast. The rain is forecast to linger into Thursday morning, then wrap up Thursday afternoon as the upper trough finally moves off to the Mississippi Valley.

There will be a potential for significant amounts of rain. The latest National Weather Service’s forecast calls for widespread totals of 1-2 inches, with isolated higher totals possible.

NWS Rainfall Forecast Valid through 7 pm Next Friday:

Dry and breezy weather is forecast for next Thursday afternoon and Friday. Sunny weather looks to continue into next weekend as well. Expect high temperatures in the 70s, with lows in the 50s.

Colorado State University Hurricane Outlook Was Released Thursday

Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Colorado State University released their outlook for the upcoming hurricane season on Thursday, and it is expected to be an extremely active season!!! The outlook calls for 23 named storms, 11 of them hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. Klotzbach stated this is most active forecast he has ever made. The combination of unusually warm sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic and a switch to La Nina by the heart of the season were behind the high numbers forecast.

Bob

Weather conditions are quiet as we start off the new week and the new month. However, a more active period of weather with a threat for strong to severe storms is expected to take place Monday evening and Monday night when a cold front moves across the area. In advance of the front, mostly cloudy, breezy, and warm weather will be in place Monday afternoon. Monday’s temperatures is forecast to generally reach the mid-80s. Expect a southerly wind with speeds of 10-20 mph, with occasional gusts to 30 mph.

Attention is focused on Monday evening and Monday night for the possible development of strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the Hill Country and the Austin/Central Texas region. At that time, a large trough of low pressure pushing east out of the southern Rockies will be helping to push a Pacific cold front east out of West Texas. Forecasts call for the front to reach the western Hill Country late Monday afternoon/early Monday evening, then push southeast to the Interstate 35 corridor just before, to around midnight. The front is forecast to move southeast overnight, pushing off the middle Texas coast after daybreak Tuesday.

Monday’s analysis shows a moist and somewhat unstable atmosphere in place across North and Central Texas. High resolution forecasts call for an area of rain showers and thunderstorms to develop along the cold front when it reaches the central Hill Country this evening. The rain and thunderstorms are predicted to push southeast with the cold front overnight. The latest timing puts the rain and thunderstorms into the Austin/I-35 corridor sometime around 11 pm to 1 am.

While the greatest threat for severe storms is expected to occur across North Texas and the DFW area, some of the storms across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions may also be strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the eastern half of the Hill Country and most of Central Texas under a Slight Risk, or a 2 out of 5 risk, for severe thunderstorms overnight. The primary severe weather threat will be large hail. Damaging downburst winds will be a secondary threat.

The rain and storms are forecast to end fairly quickly behind the cold front Monday night. The sky will then clear from west to east overnight. Rain amounts look to only average around a quarter inch. A couple of isolated totals of 0.5 to 1 inch will be possible.

Drier and slightly cooler air will follow the cold front on Tuesday. Highs will range from the low 70s across the Hill Country, to the low 80s near the coast.

A Canadian cold front is forecast to push southeast across the area Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening, ushering in breezy conditions and cooler temperatures. Expect northwesterly winds with speeds of 10-15 mph and gusts to 30 mph Tuesday night. Sunny and dry weather is forecast Wednesday through Saturday in the wake of the cold front. Expect mild days and cool nights.

• Daily high temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 70s.
• Lows Wednesday through Friday mornings will include the low and mid-40s across the Hill Country, the upper 40s across Central Texas and the upper 40s to low 50s across the coastal region.
• Lows Saturday morning are forecast to be in the mid-50s.

Forecasts call for a change in the weather pattern beginning next Sunday when a large trough of low pressure from the Pacific pushes east to the southern Rockies. The trough is forecast to lift northeast to the Plains state on Monday. This system is predicted to pull considerable clouds and moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico next Sunday into Monday—somewhat similar to what we saw this past weekend. A weak cold front associated with the trough is forecast to push east across Texas Sunday and stall somewhere just east of Interstate 35 on Monday. This atmospheric setup is expected to cause the development of scattered light rain showers across the region Sunday morning, continuing through next Monday.

Additional chances for rain are forecast next Tuesday through Thursday as another Pacific trough of low pressure slowly pushes east across Texas and the southern Plains states. Conditions appear favorable for development of widespread rain across the region with this next system. There are early indications for rain totals of 1-2 inches. Temperatures next week are expected to remain mild, with highs in the 70s to near 80 degrees and lows in the 60s.

Weather Forecast for Monday’s Total Eclipse

While it’s still too early to know the specifics for eclipse day, April 8^th, confidence is increasing in a forecast for widespread clouds and possible periods of light rain. The outlook for favorable viewing conditions continues to deteriorate as the event approaches. Cloud probabilities from some of the most reliable computer forecast solutions for clear or mostly clear skies across North and South Texas are now near zero. The forecast for less than 50% sky cloud coverage is currently a 1 in 4 chance at best along the path of totality.

As noted in the discussion above, periods of rain are forecast Sunday through Monday. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center is calling for widespread totals of 0.25 to 0.5 inches through 7 pm Monday.

NWS Rainfall Outlook for the Period 7 pm Saturday through 7 pm Monday:

While this outlook is incredibly disappointing, all it takes is a well-timed break in the clouds to allow for a magnificent view. For example, rain and storms disrupted the 2017 eclipse in the Kansas City area. But in the midst of the inclement weather, there were some breaks in the clouds during totality. The forecasts could still change some over the next few days.

I’ll be passing along additional weather updates throughout the week.

Bob

The month of March will be “going out like a lamb” as weather conditions are expected to remain dry and quiet through Easter weekend. The most noticeable weather changes heading into the weekend will be the warmer temperatures and gusty southerly breezes. Weekend weather conditions are looking great, and it will definitely be feeling a lot like spring.

A strengthening pressure gradient between a developing area of low pressure over the southern Plains states and high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to cause breezy conditions Friday through Sunday. Forecasts call for sustained southerly winds between 10 and 15 mph, with occasional gusts up to 30/35 mph through the weekend.

The sky looks to be mostly sunny Friday afternoon. Saturday will start off with widespread clouds, but the sky will become mostly sunny by midday. Easter Sunday looks to have a partly to mostly cloudy sky as high-level cirrus clouds spread in the from the west.

Warmer daytime and nighttime temperatures are forecast today through Sunday thanks to the southerly breezes originating off the Gulf of Mexico.

• High temperatures Friday are forecast to be in the upper 70s.
• High temperatures Saturday are predicted to be near 78-80 degrees.
• High temperatures Sunday are forecast to be in the low and mid-80s.
• Low temperatures Saturday and Sunday mornings are predicted to be in the low 60s.
• Low temperatures Monday morning are forecast to be in the upper 60s.

Some changes in our weather are predicted to take place early next week when a large trough of low pressure begins to lift northeast out of the Southwestern U.S. This system is expected to drag a cold front southeast across Texas Monday evening into Monday night. Ahead of the front, mostly cloudy, breezy and warm weather will continue on Monday, with highs in the mid and upper 80s. Monday night, conditions appear favorable for the development of scatted rain showers and thunderstorms ahead of and along the cold front as far south as roughly Intestate 10. The probability for rain will be near 40-50 percent. There are indications some of the storms may become strong to severe across the northern counties of Central Texas. The Storm Prediction Center is highlighting North Texas, extending as far south as about Austin for the potential for severe storms Monday night.

Rain amounts are not forecast to be very high, with most totals averaging less than a quarter inch. Unfortunately, the rain is not expected to make into areas south of Interstate 10.

A dry weather pattern will set up Tuesday and is forecast to continue through late next week. Slightly cooler air will spread into the area behind the cold front Tuesday, and this slightly cooler air should persist through Thursday. Expect daily high temperatures in the mid-70s. Lows will range from the mid and upper 40s across the Hill Country to near 50 degrees across the coastal plains. Forecasts call for dry and slightly warmer weather next Friday, continuing through next weekend.

Early Look at Eclipse Day Sky Forecast

Confidence has increased slightly that an active weather pattern could bring moisture and cloud cover with a chance of rain to our region around the day of the eclipse. The latest forecast model consensus has trended cloudier than what is typical for April 8th, with a roughly 30% chance for favorable viewing conditions across the Hill Country and Central Texas.

But keep in mind, we’re 10 days out from April 8^th and there’s still considerable uncertainty in the forecast and with the development of a large trough of low pressure out to our west at that time. Don’t change any plans just yet. The weather forecast for eclipse day will become clearer over the next few days. Stay tuned for additional updates.

Have a Happy Easter and a great weekend!

Bob

An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms spread east across the region Monday morning into early afternoon. Totals were heaviest across the Hill Country, where amounts were generally between a quarter and a half inch. For areas along and east of Interstate 35, most totals averaged less than a quarter inch. This unfortunately looks to be the last significant rain our region will see for the month of March as generally dry weather is forecast Tuesday through next Sunday. Month to date, totals are running close to an inch below normal across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and between 1 and 2 inches above normal across the coastal plains.

Sunny, breezy and mild weather is developing in the wake of Monday morning’s rain. A strong pressure gradient behind the departing system is expected to cause westerly winds with speeds of 15-25 mph and occasional gusts as high as 35 mph. Monday’s temperature is predicted to climb to near 78-80 degrees at most locations.

Cooler weather is on the way! A large trough of low pressure moving east across the Plains states is forecast to push a Canadian cold front south across our region late Monday evening through Monday night. No rain is expected with the front. However, temperatures will trend noticeably cooler overnight and into Tuesday morning. Sunny weather will be in place Tuesday.

• Lows Tuesday morning are forecast to be near 38-40 degrees across the Hill Country, in the mid-40s across Central Texas, and in the low 50s across the coastal plains.
• High temperatures Tuesday are forecast to be in the upper 60s to low 70s.
• Low temperatures Wednesday morning are forecast to generally be in the mid and upper 40s.

There will be a slight chance for a few rain showers and a couple of isolated thunderstorms Wednesday when a weak trough of low pressure swings southeast out of the southern Plains. Relatively dry air at the surface is expected to keep the rainfall spotty and light in nature, with rain amounts averaging less than a tenth of an inch. Most locations are expected to stay dry. Under a partly cloudy sky, the temperature is forecast to warm close to 70 degrees.

Wednesday night into early Thursday morning looks to be the last night of cool temperatures this week. Lows Thursday morning will range from the low 40s across the Hill Country, to the upper 40s near the coast.

Dry and warm weather is forecast Thursday through Sunday as a stable ridge of high pressure slides over Texas out of Mexico. The sky will be sunny Thursday through Friday, with a partly cloudy sky forecast for Saturday and Easter Sunday. Humidity levels look to increase over the weekend, and will make conditions feel somewhat muggy and sticky.

• High temperatures Thursday and Friday are forecast to be around 78-80 degrees.
• High temperatures Saturday and Sunday are predicted to be in the mid-80s.
• Lows are forecast to be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Next week, a chance for scattered rain showers looks to develop Tuesday into Wednesday as a weak cold front sinks south into Texas out of the Plains. As of now, rain amounts are expected to be low—somewhere around a quarter inch.

Temperatures are forecast to be warm, with a high Monday and Tuesday in mid to upper 80s. Highs Wednesday through Friday are predicted to be in the 70s. Lows next week are forecast to be in the 60s and 50s.

A Very Early Weather Outlook for April 8^th

The weather for April 8^th is just starting to enter the timeframe of the long-range forecast solutions. Keep in mind, the model solutions this far out are not great for predicting clouds or no clouds—especially with any spring-type weather systems that might be moving into our area. The latest ensemble solutions do point to a somewhat unsettled weather pattern across Central Texas around April 8^th as a broad trough of low pressure develops across the southwestern U.S. This could possibly mean a fair amount of clouds.

Again, this is a very early forecast and it could very well change in the coming days as the forecast solutions get a better handle on the weather pattern for that time period. I will provide additional updates over the next two weeks.

Bob