Weather highlights for this week will include warmer temperatures and an elevated wildfire danger Monday and Tuesday, a chance for rain showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, and the return of colder temperatures late week.

Monday’s weather started off chilly, with the temperature falling below freezing across a good part of the Hill Country and Central Texas. It’s interesting to note, February so far, has been a cool month across the state of Texas. The temperature through Sunday has averaged between 6 and 9 degrees below normal across most of West, South and Central Texas! Austin-Camp Mabry has recorded 5 days with temperatures reached to or below freezing, while Austin-Bergstrom Airport has recorded 10 such days.

The dome of Canadian high pressure which brought in the cool temperatures over the weekend has now shifted east to the Lower Mississippi Valley. This has caused surface winds across Texas to become south and southwesterly. Wind speeds are predicted to increase to a range of 10-15 mph, with gusts to 25 mph this afternoon, continuing through Monday night. The breezy conditions, combined with the low relative humidity and the abundant dry/dead vegetation will lead to elevated fire weather conditions across the region. There is a potential for near critical fire weather conditions across the Hill Country, where the strongest winds will coincide with the drier fuels and landscape. Monday afternoon’s weather will be sunny. However, an area of low clouds is forecast to develop late this evening across the coastal region. The clouds are predicted to spread north across Central Texas and into parts of the Hill Country after midnight.

  • Monday’s temperature is forecast to warm close to 70 degrees.
  • Lows Tuesday morning are forecast to be in the low and mid-40s.

Tuesday is expected to start off with widespread low clouds across the region. These clouds should burn off late morning, with the sky becoming sunny in the afternoon. Breezy to windy conditions are forecast throughout the day as the pressure gradient strengthens across the state. Expect southerly winds with speeds of 15-20 mph, and occasional gusts to 35 mph Tuesday through Tuesday night. Although relative humidity levels are forecast to be a little higher Tuesday, the strong winds and dry fuels will combine to cause continued elevated fire weather conditions across the region. Widespread low clouds are forecast to redevelop across the region late Tuesday evening.

  • High temperatures Tuesday are forecast to be in the low 70s.
  • Low temperatures Wednesday morning will range from the low and mid-50s across the Hill Country, to near 60 degrees across the coastal region.

A chance for rain showers and scattered thunderstorms is forecast to develop around midday Wednesday and continue through Wednesday night as a trough of low pressure tracks northeast out of West Texas. Forecasts call for moisture levels to increase Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. As the atmosphere grows increasingly moist and unstable, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the region beginning around midday Wednesday, continuing through Wednesday afternoon. The probability for rain will generally be near 30 percent. The most favorable area for rain and storms is forecast to be across the northern Hill Country. Here, the Storm Prediction Center has placed the area generally north of a line stretching from San Angelo, to Lampasas, under a Slight Risk (a 1 out of 5 risk) for severe thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night. The threat for severe storms is expected to be quite low across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast.  The primary severe weather threat looks to be large hail. Wednesday’s weather is predicted to be mostly cloudy, windy and warm. The temperature is forecast to warm to the mid-70s.

A broken line of rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast to develop across the Big Country and the Hill Country late Wednesday evening as a Pacific cold front associated with the upper trough pushes east out of West Texas. This line of showers and storms is predicted to spread east across the Hill Country, Central Texas and coastal regions Wednesday night and toward daybreak Thursday. The probability for rain will generally be around 50-60 percent. Despite the fairly high chance for rain, totals through Thursday morning are predicted to be low—generally around a quarter inch, or less. Temperatures will turn cooler behind the front Wednesday night. Lows Thursday morning will range from the low 40s across the northern Hill Country, to the upper 40s to low 50s across Central Texas, to the low 60s across the coastal plains.

Sunny weather will return Thursday in the wake of Wednesday night’s cold front. A second, stronger cold front is forecast to push south across the region Thursday afternoon, bringing colder temperatures for Thursday night and Friday. A freeze is predicted for the Hill Country and most of Central Texas Friday morning.

  • High temperatures Thursday are forecast to be in the upper 50s to low 60s.
  • Lows temperatures Friday morning will include the mid and upper 20s across the Hill Country, be near 30-32 degrees across Central Texas, and the mid-30s across the coastal plains.

Sunny, dry and milder weather is forecast Friday through Sunday.

  • High temperatures in the upper 50s Friday, will warm to the upper 60s Saturday and to around 70 degrees Sunday.
  • Lows Saturday morning are forecast to be in the mid and upper 30s.
  • Lows Sunday morning are forecast to be in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Look ahead to next week, partly cloudy and dry weather is predicted for Monday and Tuesday. Expect high temperatures in the low and mid-70s. A chance for rain and thunderstorms is forecast to develop Wednesday through Friday as a trough of low pressure slowly tracks east out of the Desert Southwest. Cooler temperatures are forecast the second half of next week, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.


February’s Full Snow Moon

February’s full moon will occur at 10:59 am CST on Wednesday, February 16th. However, the moon will appear full Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday nights. The February full moon is often called the Snow Moon. The explanation behind February’s full Moon name is a fairly straightforward one: it’s known as the Snow Moon due to the typically heavy snowfall that occurs in February. On average, February is the United States’ snowiest month, according to data from the National Weather Service.