A Chance for Rain Saturday, then a Chance for Widespread Rain Next Thursday and Friday - LCRA A Chance for Rain Saturday, then a Chance for Widespread Rain Next Thursday and Friday - LCRA


Friday started off rather cold, following Thursday’s push of arctic air through the region. According to LCRA’s Hydromet, temperatures at or below freezing were observed across the region early Friday morning, south to about Interstate 10. Lows included the mid-teens to low 20s across the Hill Country, the upper 20s to low 30s across Central Texas, and the mid to upper 30s across the middle Texas coast.

On this Friday, a large area of low clouds is quickly spreading across Central Texas and the Hill Country out of Deep South Texas. These clouds are being drawn north out ahead of a trough of low pressure in the middle atmosphere located over northern Mexico. The widespread area of clouds is forecast to remain over our area this afternoon, keeping temperatures chilly. Readings are predicted to only reach around 40-42 degrees across the Hill Country, the mid to upper 40s across Central Texas and the low 50s across the coastal plains region.

Areas of drizzle are forecast to develop across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions beginning late Friday evening, continuing overnight as a weak overrunning pattern begins to set up. Across the coastal plains region extending inland to near I-10, scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop after midnight. Fortunately, all temperatures will be well above freezing Friday night. Lows Saturday morning will be mostly in the low and mid-40s, with low 50s expected towards the coast.

Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast across the eastern Hill Country and the Austin/Central Texas region Saturday morning through late Saturday afternoon as the trough from Mexico tracks east over Texas. The probability for rain will be near 40-50 percent and rain amounts are expected to only average around a tenth of an inch. Expect a high temperature near 68-72 degrees. Partly cloudy and dry weather is forecast Saturday evening and Saturday night.

A more widespread coverage of rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast Saturday into Saturday night across the middle Texas coast, extending inland to the La Grange/Fayette County area.  Here, the probability for rain is predicted to be near 80 percent and some of the thunderstorms could be strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of Southeast Texas, including Matagorda, Wharton, Colorado, and Fayette Counties under a Marginal Risk (a 1 out of 5 risk) for severe thunderstorms Saturday. The primary severe weather threat appears to be large hail. Some locally heavy downpours will also be possible. Rain amounts through Sunday morning are forecast to generally average between 0.5 and 1 inch. Expect a high temperature in the mid and upper 70s.

Sunday’s weather is shaping up to be mostly sunny across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, while unsettled conditions look to continue across the coastal region. A Canadian cold front is forecast to sweep southeast across the Hill Country Sunday morning, moving across Central Texas and the coastal region Sunday afternoon. No rain is forecast with the front when it moves across the Hill Country and the Interstate 35 corridor. Expect mostly sunny and breezy conditions here, with high temperatures in the mid and upper 60s.

Forecasts call for a few rain showers to develop along the cold front when it pushes east of Interstate 35 Sunday afternoon. The probability for rain will only be around 20 percent across Central Texas, increasing to near 50 percent for areas south of I-10. The chance for rain is expected to diminish behind the cold front. Rain amounts should average less than a quarter inch. High temperatures ahead of the front are forecast to be in the upper 70s.

Partly cloudy and colder weather is forecast Sunday night. Lows Monday morning will range from the mid-30s west, to the low 40s across Central Texas, to around 48-50 degrees near the coast.

Monday and Tuesday’s weather is forecast to be mostly sunny as a stable ridge of high pressure spreads over Texas out of the Southwestern U.S. High temperatures both days are predicted to be near 60-62 degrees.

  • Low temperatures Tuesday morning will be the coldest of the week, ranging from the low 30s across the Hill Country, to the mid-30s across Central Texas, to near 38-40 degrees across the coastal plains.
  • Lows Wednesday morning will range from the upper 30s west, to the mid-40s near the coast.

Beginning next Wednesday, continuing into next weekend, forecasts call for the development of an unsettled and wet pattern across much of Texas. A couple of troughs of low pressure across the Southwestern U.S. are forecast to slowly lift northeast into the Plains states late next week and next weekend, drawing clouds and moisture into Texas, resulting in periods of rain and thunderstorms.

Clouds are forecast to increase across the region Wednesday, with a chance for rain developing by late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. This will be followed by a 40-50 percent chance for rain next Thursday through Saturday. Many of the details are still to be resolved, but this is shaping up to be a wet period across our region, with storm totals forecast to be somewhere around an inch, possibly more. The wet pattern is forecast to diminish sometime next Sunday. This rain will be some very welcome as the western and northern Hill Country as not seen a widespread rain since early November.

High temperatures next Wednesday through Friday are forecast to generally be in the 60s, with low temperatures in the 40s and 50s. There are no signs of any arctic air spreading south into Texas over the next couple of weeks.

 

Have a good weekend!

Bob