The weather pattern is forecast to become active this afternoon, and remain active through late week as a trough of low pressure sinks south into Texas out of the Midwest. This trough and an associated cold front are expected to cause the development of showers and thunderstorms across the region this afternoon and tonight. Periods of showers and thunderstorms look to continue Tuesday through Friday as the front remains stalled over the area. A strengthening ridge of high pressure this coming weekend is expected to cause a drier and warmer pattern that looks to last through all of next week.
As of mid-afternoon, Doppler radar showed a large area of showers and scattered thunderstorms stretching across the Hill Country and the northern counties of Central Texas that was sinking to the south. This activity was developing in advance of a cold front situated just south of the Red River. The cold front is predicted to slowly push to the south this afternoon and tonight, with the front reaching a position close to the Interstate 10 corridor Tuesday morning. High-resolution forecasts call for the showers and thunderstorms over the area to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon as it all moves to the south. With a moist and somewhat unstable environment in place across Central and South Texas, the showers and thunderstorms are forecast to spread south across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions late this afternoon and evening and into the coastal plains region late evening and toward midnight. The probability for rain will be near 50-60 percent.
Some of the thunderstorms across parts of Central Texas this afternoon and evening may be strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area between Austin, Houston and Lufkin under a Marginal Risk (a 1 out of 5 risk) for severe thunderstorms through early Tuesday morning. The Austin metro area is included in this marginal risk. The primary severe weather threat will be damaging downburst winds.
The area of rain and storms is forecast to diminish across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions by midnight and the coastal region before daybreak Tuesday. Rain amounts through daybreak Tuesday are forecast to generally average between 0.5 and 1 inch, with isolated totals to near 2 inches possible.
The outlook for Tuesday calls for a mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky. There will be a 40-50 percent chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the region in the afternoon and evening as the front stalls just to the south of Interstate 10. Rain amounts are predicted to generally average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches, with isolated totals to near 1 inch possible. High temperatures Tuesday are forecast to be near 88-90 degrees.
Additional periods of rain showers and thunderstorms are forecast across the region Wednesday through Friday. Forecasts call for a piece of the low pressure trough sinking south into Texas on Monday to close-off across West-Central Texas on Wednesday, with the trough then slowly tracking to the west Thursday and Friday. Forecasts call for a 40-50 percent chance for mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across the region all three days. Rain amounts each day are forecast to generally average between 0.25 and 0.5 inches. Daily high temperatures are forecast to be close to 90 degrees.
The National Weather Service’s 5-day rainfall forecast, for the period between this morning and 7 pm Saturday, calls for widespread totals of 1-1.5 inches, with isolated totals of 2-3 inches possible.
Sunny, dry and warmer weather is forecast to develop Saturday and Sunday when a stable ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico spreads across Texas. Daily high temperatures are forecast to be in the mid-90s.
The outlook for next week calls for continued sunny, dry and hot weather as the ridge of high pressure remains over Texas. High temperatures are predicted to generally be in the mid-90s, although a few spots could reach the upper 90s the latter half of the week.
Tropical Weather Outlook
Weather conditions are quiet across the tropical Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. There are not features in place which pose a threat for tropical development for at least the next 5 days.
Have a good week.
Bob
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