A Chance for Some Wintery Precipitation Thursday. Turning Much Colder Late Week - LCRA A Chance for Some Wintery Precipitation Thursday. Turning Much Colder Late Week - LCRA


A dry and stable weather pattern is currently in place across Central and South Texas. The cold air which spread into our area with considerable wind on Saturday is now moving off to the east. Southerly breezes have returned and this will lead to warmer temperatures this afternoon and Wednesday. Expect a mostly sunny sky this afternoon. Widespread clouds are forecast to develop across the coastal plains, Central Texas and eastern Hill Country regions late this evening as a weak area of moisture returns off the Gulf. Some patchy fog will be possible for areas near the Interstate 35 corridor early Wednesday morning. The clouds should give way to a mostly sunny sky Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will trend warmer both days, with readings reaching the mid-70s on both days. Lows Wednesday morning will range from the low 50s west, to around 60 degrees near the coast.

The warm readings will come to an abrupt end Wednesday evening and Wednesday night when an arctic cold front pushes south across the region. The front is forecast to reach the northern Hill Country about mid-afternoon Wednesday, the Austin area around sunset and the coastal region sometime in the late evening. No rain is forecast with the front when is moves across the Hill Country and Central Texas. However, there will be a slight chance for a few spotty rain showers and isolated thunderstorms over the area from La Grange, southeast to the coast. Behind the front, cloudy, windy and much colder weather can be expected Wednesday night and Thursday. Northerly winds are forecast to increase to 10-20 mph, with occasional gusts to 30 mph. Readings at or below freezing are forecast across the Hill Country and most of Central Texas by sunrise Thursday. Lows will include the mid and upper 20s across the Hill Country, the low 30s across Central Texas and be around 38-40 degrees across the coastal region.

The focus turns to Thursday when there will be a low to moderate potential for some wintery across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions. Forecasts call for an area of mid-level moisture to spread over the region Thursday morning in advance of a trough of low pressure that will be tracking east out of northern Mexico. As atmospheric lift spreads over the region with the trough, an area of light precipitation is forecast to develop. With surface temperatures early Thursday morning at or below freezing across the Hill Country and Central Texas, the precipitation may be in the form of light snow, light sleet, light rain, and/or light freezing rain. However, a mitigating factor to any significant precipitation will be quite a bit of dry air in the lower atmosphere. Little no accumulations are forecast. With the ground still quite warm, the main area of concern will be bridges and overpasses. Much of the precipitation is predicted to transition to mostly a light rain from late Thursday morning through late Thursday afternoon as temperatures warm to around 38-40 degrees, with mid-40s expected across the coastal plains.

Thursday evening, there will be a 30 percent chance for light rain, sleet and snow flurries across the eastern Hill Country and most of Central Texas as temperatures lower through the 30s. Significant wintery precipitation accumulations are not expected.  However, we will need to watch the bridges and overpasses. There will be a 30-40 percent chance for light rain across the coastal plains region Thursday evening and Thursday night. Rain amounts should average less than a quarter inch.

The precipitation is forecast to taper off across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions Thursday evening as the upper trough exits to the east. The sky is forecast to become mostly sunny to partly cloudy beginning Friday morning. But do note the precipitation will be slower to clear the coastal plains region. Forecasts call for 30 percent chance for light rain, possibly mixed with a little sleet early Friday morning followed by a 20 percent chance for light rain Friday morning into Friday afternoon. Expect a mostly clear sky across the entire region Friday night.

Here is a look at projected temperatures for this period:

  • High temperatures Thursday are forecast to be near 38-40 degrees across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, with mid-40s expected towards the coast.
  • Lows Friday morning are predicted to be near 20-23 degrees across the Hill Country, in the mid and upper 20s across Central Texas and be around 30-32 degrees across the coastal plains.
  • High temperatures Friday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 40s.
  • Lows Saturday morning are predicted to be in the low 20s across the Hill Country, the mid and upper 20s across Central Texas and near 30-32 degrees across the coastal plains.

Mostly sunny to partly cloudy and dry weather is forecast Saturday through Sunday. High temperatures are predicted to be near 50 degrees Saturday, and in the low 50s Sunday. Lows Sunday morning will include the upper 20s Hill Country, the low and mid-30s Central Texas and the mid-30s across the coastal plains.

Looking ahead to next week, there will be a 30-40 percent chance for rain showers across the region Monday into Monday night when a small trough of low pressure tracks east out of northern Mexico. Totals are forecast to average around a quarter inch and less. High temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 50s. Mostly sunny and warmer weather will develop Tuesday, with highs in the 60s.

Another arctic cold front is forecast to push south across the region late Tuesday night, bringing a blast of colder air that looks to persist through late week.  High temperatures Wednesday through Friday are forecast to be in the 50s. Low temperatures Wednesday and Thursday mornings are forecast to be in the low and mid-30s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and be near 40 degrees towards the coast. Lows Friday morning are forecast to be around 40 degrees region-wide.

Have a good week.

Bob