NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued their monthly seasonal update on temperature and precipitation Thursday. The outlook for winter into early spring showed few changes from what was presented last month. The weather pattern over this period is predicted to be heavily influenced by a weak to moderate La Niña. For most of Texas, this translates into increased odds the temperature will average milder than-normal and precipitation will average drier than-normal over the winter and into early spring.
The latest forecast for La Niña calls for the feature to persist through early spring, with the pattern weakening and dissipating mid to late spring 2022.
While the overall pattern is expected to be drier and milder than-normal, temporary weakening of the La Niña pattern can be expected from time to time, allowing for periods of rain and intrusions of cold air.
While a repeat of last winter’s extreme cold event is within the realm of possibilities, it appears to be highly unlikely.
With the forecast for below-normal precipitation over the next 3 to 4 months, CPC’s Seasonal Drought Outlook, looking out through the end of January, is calling for drought conditions to develop across all of Central and South Texas.
Hopefully, periodic rains will limit the magnitude of the expected drought conditions.