Milder Temperatures Returning Tuesday, Continuing through the Holiday Weekend - LCRA Milder Temperatures Returning Tuesday, Continuing through the Holiday Weekend - LCRA


Cold and damp conditions held throughout the weekend, with the temperature never getting out of the 40s. Although rain and drizzle was in place for most of the time, rain amounts weren’t all that heavy. According to LCRA’s Hydromet, totals since Saturday morning have only been around a quarter inch across much of the Hill Country and the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor. Totals east of Interstate 35 were generally between a quarter and a half inch. The highest totals actually occurred near the coast, across Matagorda County, where amounts were just under an inch.

As we start off the new week, the cold and wet pattern continues. A trough of low pressure pushing east out of West Texas is causing widespread light rain from the eastern Hill Country, to the Texas/Louisiana border. High-resolution forecasts call light rain showers to continue this afternoon, with the rain tapering off from west to east late this afternoon and evening. Additional rain amounts are forecast to be quite low. With the rain and thick cloud cover in place, afternoon temperatures will be mostly in the mid and upper 40s. Clouds will continue across the area Monday evening and Monday night. In fact, some locations may see the development of patchy fog late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Lows Tuesday morning will include the mid and upper 30s across the Hill Country, readings around 40 degrees across Central Texas, and the mid-40s across the coastal plains.

Tuesday is expected to start off cloudy, with patchy fog. A partly to mostly cloudy sky is forecast to develop Tuesday afternoon. Some scattered sunshine should finally make an appearance! It will be a bit warmer, with highs in the mid and upper 50s. Clouds and even a few sprinkles of light rain are forecast Tuesday night through Wednesday as an area of moisture spreads inland from the Gulf. The probability for rain will only be 20 percent. A mostly cloudy sky looks to hold through the period. High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to be in the low 60s. Lows Thursday morning are forecast to be in the low and mid-50s.

The outlook for Thanksgiving Day is still somewhat uncertain—even being just three days away. The various forecast solutions remain very divided in their handling of a trough of low pressure tracking east out of the Rockies. Once camp of solutions continues to be very progressive, calling for the trough to move across the southern Plains Thursday into Thursday night, with the trough then exiting off to the northeast. Under this scenario, our region would see a few rain showers throughout the day Thursday, with the rain ending by Thursday evening. Meanwhile the other camp of forecast solutions calls for the trough to dig south into northern Mexico on Thursday, then push east across central and south Texas Friday into Saturday. This scenario would likely bring our region widespread rain showers and scattered thunderstorms Thanksgiving Day and Friday.

At this point, I am leaning toward the more progressive solution, and calling for a chance for rain showers across the region Thanksgiving Day, with the rain exiting the area Thursday evening and Thursday night behind a Pacific cold front. The probability for rain will be around 40-50 percent, with rain amounts averaging around a quarter inch. On the chance the wetter solution is correct, expect a good chance for rain Thursday and Friday, with the rain tapering off Friday night. Under this wetter scenario, much of the region could see totals close to an inch.

High temperatures Thursday and Friday are forecast to be in the mid and upper 60s. Lows Friday and Saturday mornings are predicted to be in the low and mid-40s.

There is good agreement weekend weather conditions will be mostly sunny, dry, and mild. High temperatures in the upper 60s Saturday will warm into the low 70s Sunday. Lows Sunday and Monday mornings will be in the 40s.

The outlook for next week calls for generally dry weather with mild temperatures. We may see a slight chance for rain mid-week when a Pacific cold front moves through the area. Significant rain is not expected. Expect high temperatures in the low 70s Monday and Tuesday, with 60s Wednesday through Friday. Lows are predicted to generally be in the upper 40s to mid-50s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Weather conditions are quiet across the tropical Atlantic as we near the end of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 5 days.

Mars is Back in the Evening Sky

In case you haven’t noticed, Mars in back the evening sky and it’s quite bright! The “red planet” now clears the east-northeast horizon around the end of twilight. It gains altitude until culminating nearly overhead around 1 or 2 am. There’s no missing it! Mars is now at magnitude -1.7, and outshines the star Sirius—the brightest star in the sky. You can’t miss Mars’s fiery yellow-orange color.

Bob