Much Colder Air to Arrive Late Tuesday. A Cold Rain Late Week with Some Potential for Wintery Weather - LCRA Much Colder Air to Arrive Late Tuesday. A Cold Rain Late Week with Some Potential for Wintery Weather - LCRA


Warm and humid air has spread into our region as Friday’s cold front lifted back to the north as a warm front early Monday morning. A strengthening pressure gradient across the state will result in breezy conditions this afternoon and tonight. Expect a south wind at 10-20 mph, along with occasional gusts to 35 mph. This afternoon’s temperature is forecast to reach the low to middle 80s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and the upper 70s across the coastal plains.

There will be a slight chance for a few scattered thunderstorms across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions after midnight Monday night as a weak trough of low pressure tracks northeast out of Far West Texas. The latest observations show a fairly strong inversion in the middle atmosphere over our region, which will limit the development of thunderstorms. The main focus appears to be more over Northwest Texas and the Red River Valley regions. The probability for rain will only be 20 percent. Severe storms are not expected. Lows Tuesday morning will be quite mild—ranging from the upper 50s across the Hill Country, to the upper 60s near the coast.

Tuesday is shaping up to be another warm day. Some brief morning clouds look to give way to mostly sunny conditions in the afternoon. Wind speeds are forecast to be lower—generally in the range of 5-12 mph. High temperatures are predicted to be in the low and mid-80s.

Big changes to the temperature are forecast to begin Tuesday night into Wednesday morning when an arctic cold front slowly pushes into our region out of the southern Plains states. The front is forecast to reach the northern Hill Country after midnight Tuesday night, the Austin area around sunrise Wednesday morning, and the La Grange area early Wednesday afternoon. The front is forecast to pull up stationary over the coastal plains somewhere close to U.S. Highway 59 Wednesday night. Forecasts call for a cloudy sky with a few rain showers developing for areas along and behind the cold front Wednesday. The probability for rain will be near 40 percent. Rain amounts should only average around a tenth of an inch. Temperatures will trend much colder for areas behind the front.

  • Lows Wednesday morning will include the low and mid-40s across the Hill Country, the upper 40s across Central Texas, with low 60s across the coastal plains.
  • High temperatures Wednesday will be near 45-50 degrees across the Hill Country, near 50-52 degrees across Central Texas and in the upper 70s across much of the coastal plains.

A fairly widespread area of light precipitation is forecast to develop across the region Wednesday into Thursday as a trough of low pressure tracks east out of the southern Rockies. Temperatures are predicted to fall below freezing across much of West Texas, extending as far south as approximately Junction, Llano, and Lampasas. Across this area, a mixture of light rain, light freezing rain and sleet is forecast Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Ice accumulations, if any, should be very light. For most of the Hill Country, all of Central Texas and the coastal plains, occasional light rain is forecast Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon. As of now, wintery precipitation is not expected around the Austin area or across Central Texas Wednesday night through Thursday morning. But do note: should the cold air mass be more dense than currently forecast, some of the light wintery precipitation across the northern Hill Country could develop further south through the Hill Country and toward the Austin area during this period. Liquid rain amounts Wednesday night through Thursday are forecast to average around a tenth of an inch.

  • Lows temperatures Thursday morning will range from 30-32 degrees across the northern Hill Country, to the mid and upper 30s across Central Texas, to the mid-50s across the coastal plains.
  • High temperatures Thursday will include the mid-40s across the Hill Country, the mid and upper 40s across Central Texas and the upper 60s to low 70s across the coastal plains.

A reinforcing blast of cold air is forecast to push south across the region Thursday night as the upper trough exits to the northeast. This new blast of cold air should finally push the cold front off the middle Texas coast. There will be a slight chance for precipitation across the region along and just behind the cold front Thursday night. With temperatures expected to fall below freezing across the Hill Country and the northern half of Central Texas (including Austin) after midnight Thursday night, there will 20 percent chance for a mixture of light rain, light freezing rain, and light sleet. No significant accumulation is predicted. The precipitation is forecast to end from west to east late Thursday night into Friday morning. Friday’s weather is forecast to be partly to mostly cloudy and cold.

  • Lows Friday morning will range from the low and mid-20s across the Hill Country, to near 28-30 degrees across Central Texas, to near 38-40 degrees across the coastal plains.
  • High temperatures Friday are predicted to generally be in the low and mid-40s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and be around 50 degrees across the coastal plains.

Forecasts call for a mostly cloudy sky along with a 20-30 percent chance for light precipitation beginning Friday and continuing through Sunday afternoon as another weak trough of low pressure moving out of the southern Rockies causes a continued overrunning pattern. Parts of the Hill Country and Central Texas could see some light wintery precipitation develop Friday night into Saturday morning. For the rest of the weekend, mainly a cold rain is forecast. Rain amounts through this period are forecast to average around 0.10 to 0.20 inches.

  • Low temperatures Saturday morning will include the upper 20s across the Hill Country, the low and mid-30s across Central Texas and the low 40s across the coastal plains.
  • High temperatures Saturday are forecast to be near 48-52 degrees.
  • Low temperatures Sunday morning are forecast to be near 30 degrees across the Hill Country, in the mid-30s across Central Texas and the low 40s across the coastal plains.
  • High temperatures Sunday are forecast to be in the upper 50s.

The outlook for next week calls for generally dry weather with warming temperatures. Expect high temperatures mostly in the 60s, with low temperatures in the 30s the first half of the week, rising to the 40s for the second half.

Bob