The tropical Atlantic remains very quiet. It’s now been over two weeks since tropical storm Colin developed off the coast of North Carolina.

NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 07/20/2022 12:50 pm CDT

A Wednesday afternoon’s satellite image and surface analysis showed patches of Saharan dust across the tropical Atlantic and quite a bit of dry air located over the far eastern Atlantic. While tropical waves have been moving off the coast of Africa, atmospheric conditions have been unfavorable for tropical storms to develop.

How long will these unfavorable conditions last? No one knows for sure. But computer-forecast solutions indicate these unfavorable conditions will likely persist through the end of the month and possibly into early August. Beyond that, climatology tells us atmospheric conditions generally become more favorable for tropical development in early to mid-August as we often see fewer pockets of dry air and dust across the deep tropics.

It’s just the middle of July and there’s a long season ahead of us. The tropics are just playing possum right now. Expect things to get going as we move through the month of August.