Thursday Update on the Upcoming Threat for Widespread Rain and Storms - LCRA Thursday Update on the Upcoming Threat for Widespread Rain and Storms - LCRA


The weather was partly cloudy and quite warm across the Hill Country and Central Texas Thursday afternoon.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms were pushing northwest from the middle and upper Texas coast and up to the northwest, an area of strong to severe thunderstorms was spreading east across parts of West and Northwest Texas.

Few changes are forecast for the remainder of this afternoon. There will be a 30 percent chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Hill Country and most of Central Texas. Moderate to heavy rain will be possible across the northern Hill Country.  There will be a 50 percent chance for more showers and thunderstorms across the coastal plains.

This evening and overnight, forecasts call for the area of rain and thunderstorms over Northwest Texas to solidify into a large cluster, or squall line of rain showers and thunderstorms. This area of rain and storms is predicated to slowly spread east-southeast into the Hill Country mid to late evening, then move to the Interstate 35 corridor after midnight and toward daybreak on Friday. The area of rain and storms is forecast to push east of I-35 Friday morning and weaken. While widespread severe storms are not expected, a couple of the thunderstorms may be strong to severe, producing damaging downburst winds and large hail. Moderate to heavy rain can be expected, with overnight totals averaging between 1 and 3 inches, and isolated heavier totals. The rain is forecast to slowly taper off Friday morning into early Friday afternoon. There will still be a 50 percent chance for scattered showers and thunderstorm mid to late afternoon.

Across the coastal plains region, scattered showers are forecast overnight, followed by a more widespread coverage of rain and thunderstorms Friday morning through Friday afternoon. Here, rain amounts of 2-4 inches are forecast.

Friday night, forecasts call for more rain showers and thunderstorms to develop across the northern Hill Country ahead of and along a cold front. The activity is expected to slowly push southeast towards the Austin/Interstate 35 corridor Friday night.

For Saturday, there looks to be a widespread coverage of rain and scattered thunderstorms throughout the day as the cold front continues to slowly sink to the south.  A light to moderate rain is forecast, but a couple of locally heavy downpours cannot be ruled out. The chance for widespread rain will begin to decrease Saturday evening as drier air spreads in behind the cold front.

Rain amounts between Friday evening and Saturday evening are forecast to generally average between 1 and 2 inches, with isolated heavier totals.

A partly cloudy sky is forecast across the region on Sunday. There will be a 20 percent chance for a few scattered showers across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, with a 30-40 percent chance for showers across the coastal plains. Rain amounts should average less than a quarter inch.

Sunny, dry and mild weather is forecast next Monday through Friday.

Bob