Updated Outlook for April: Warmer, with Continued Below-Normal Rainfall - LCRA Updated Outlook for April: Warmer, with Continued Below-Normal Rainfall - LCRA


As we close out the month of March, weather conditions overall across Texas have been cooler than-normal, and drier than-normal. Although readings trended warmer the second half of the month, the warmth wasn’t enough to balance out the chilly readings which occurred during the first two weeks. In regards to rainfall, there weren’t any good widespread, soaking storms. The majority of the month’s rain fell on the 21st, in association with the storm system which brought the tornadoes and severe weather. This system missed the western half of the Hill Country, where monthly totals were less than a quarter inch.

Looking ahead to the month of April, average rainfall is generally about the same as March across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions—typically around 2-2.5 inches. Rainfall across the middle Texas coast typically increases a bit in April, where monthly totals usually average between 3 and 4 inches.

On Thursday, the Climate Prediction Center issued an updated outlook for the month of April and it’s calling for hints of some summer-like weather. The outlook shows 60-70 percent odds for temperatures to average above-normal, and 40-50 percent odds for rainfall to average below-normal. In their discussion, CPC forecasters noted La Nina is predicted to persist through the month, limiting the number of storm system that will move across our region. A fairly stable weather pattern over Mexico and the Southwestern U.S. is forecast to expand east across Texas, leading to fewer cold fronts and noticeably warmer temperatures. Expect the development of several 90-degree or higher temperatures.

Summer is just around the corner and we may get some peaks of it in April. Hang on; it’s shaping up to be a long, hot summer season.

Bob