Although the calendar says it’s the middle of May, the weather lately has been feeling a lot more like the middle of July. The heat didn’t let up over the weekend, with more triple-digit readings across the Hill Country, and mid to upper 90s at most other locations. A couple of weak disturbances moving across West and North Texas over the weekend brought some showers and thunderstorms to parts of the northern Hill Country, but most rain amounts totaled less than a quarter inch. Across the rest of the region, the weather remained just plain hot and dry.
Monday’s weather maps showed a broad, stable ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere stretching from central Mexico, to the southern Rockies. Troughs of low pressure were noted over the Pacific Northwest and the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley regions. Forecasts call for the ridge to slowly spread east across Texas this week, causing a pattern of dry and very weather. Late week and into the upcoming weekend, forecasts call for the ridge to weaken and diminish as a large trough of low pressure dives southeast out of western Canada.
For this afternoon through Thursday afternoon, expect a mostly sunny sky and unseasonably hot temperatures. Although fairly light winds are forecast this afternoon, expect breezy conditions to develop Tuesday through Thursday, with southerly winds in the range of 10-15 mph.
- Daily high temperatures are forecast to be near 100-103 degrees across the Hill Country, be around 98-100 degrees across Central Texas, and be in the low to mid-90s across the coastal plains.
Forecasts call for a slight chance for scattered thunderstorms to develop along the dry line across West Texas late Thursday afternoon and again Friday afternoon as the ridge shifts further to the east. Some of these thunderstorms will have the potential to spread east through the Hill Country and up to the Interstate 35 corridor both Thursday and Friday evenings. Some of these storms could be strong to severe. As of now, the probability for rain will only be at 20 percent and rain amounts, if any, should average less than a quarter inch.
Friday’s weather is shaping up to be sunny and hot. Expect high temperatures of 100-105 degrees across the Hill Country, around 100 degrees across Central Texas, and in the mid-90s across the coastal plains.
Changes in the weather are forecast to take place this upcoming weekend as the ridge weakens and a large trough of low pressure dives south across the central Plains states. This trough will help push a cold front south into Texas on Saturday. The front is forecast to move across Central Texas Saturday afternoon, then pull up stationary along the middle Texas coast Saturday night. Forecasts call for a few scattered rain showers and thunderstorms to develop along and behind the cold front across the region Saturday afternoon through Sunday. As of now, the probability for rain is forecast to be around 20-30 percent. Rain amounts Saturday through Sunday are forecast to average around a quarter to a third of an inch.
The front is expected to cause less hot temperatures over the weekend, with high temperatures both days generally around 88-90 degrees. Lows Sunday morning will be in the mid and upper 60s.
Looking ahead to next week, a pattern of mostly sunny, dry, and hot weather looks to resume as the upper trough exits to the northeast and a broad ridge of high pressure develops across the southern U.S. High temperatures next week are forecast to generally be in the mid-90s.
Tropical Weather Outlook
Although the official start to the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1st, the National Hurricane Center has begun issuing routine weather outlooks for the tropics.
At the current time, conditions are quiet and tropical cyclone formation is not expected across the Atlantic or eastern Pacific basins over the next five days.