Quiet and cool weather is in place across the region as we start off the new week and a new month.  Sunday’s cold front is part of a cold, Canadian air mass that is currently sinking south over the eastern half of the U.S.  The coldest air is staying east of Texas and moving more toward the Southeastern U.S.  Although temperatures are forecast to warm up over the next couple of days, another shot of cold air is forecast to arrive across the area Thursday night, with a reinforcing shot of cold air expected next Sunday.  With this new weather pattern, temperatures are forecast to remain on the cool side through at least the middle of the month, possibly longer.  While some freezing temperatures can be expected over the next two weeks, no bitterly cold or arctic air is forecast.  Meanwhile, with the jet stream flowing southeast out of Canada over the next couple of weeks, it will limit the flow of moisture off the Gulf of Mexico and the potential for any significant rain.

Monday’s weather maps showed a broad dome of Canadian high pressure covering the middle of the country, while a major storm system was moving across the Northeastern U.S. and an area of rain was spreading inland across the Pacific Northwest.  Atmospheric conditions are dry and very stable across the middle of the nation.  Sunny to mostly sunny conditions are forecast this afternoon through Thursday as some scattered high-level clouds spread over the area.

Forecasts call for the current dome of Canadian high pressure to remain over Texas through Tuesday, then move off to the east Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.  Northerly breezes  at 10-15 mph are forecast this afternoon, with wind speeds becoming light overnight.  East and southeasterly breezes at 5-10 mph are forecast Tuesday afternoon.  With winds turning out of the south over the next couple of days, warmer temperatures are expected.  Thursday is shaping up to be the warmest day of the week.

  • High temperatures this afternoon will be in the low and mid-60s.
  • Low temperatures Tuesday morning will include the low 30s across the Hill Country, the mid-30s across Central Texas and the upper 30s towards the coast.
  • High temperatures Tuesday will be in the mid and upper 60s.
  • Lows Wednesday morning will be in the low 40s.
  • High temperatures Wednesday will be in the low and mid-70s.
  • Lows Thursday morning will be low and mid-50s.
  • High temperatures Thursday will be around 78-80 degrees.

A Canadian cold front is forecast to sink south across Texas Thursday night into early Friday morning.  With limited moisture in place, just a few spotty  rain showers are forecast for the area along and east of Interstate 35.  Rain amounts, if any, should total less than a tenth of an inch.

Sunny, and cooler weather will follow the cold front Friday and Saturday.  High temperatures Friday will be in the upper 50s, warming to the low 60s on Saturday.  Lows Saturday morning will be in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Forecasts call for a much stronger cold front to push south across the area Saturday night, bringing even colder air for Sunday and the first half of next week.

  • Lows Sunday morning will include the upper 20s across the Hill Country, be around 30-32 degrees across Central Texas and in the upper 30s towards the coast.
  • High temperatures Super Bowl Sunday will be in the low and mid-50s.
  • Lows Monday morning will range from the upper 20s across the Hill Country to the mid-30s towards the coast.

The outlook for next week calls for sunny and cool weather through the first half of the week.  There are indications some light rain may develop next Thursday into Friday.  High temperatures throughout the week will be in the upper 50s to low 60s while low temperatures in the mid-30s to low 40s.

January Climate Synopsis

January’s weather generally averaged warmer and drier and normal across the region.  Temperatures averaged more than 2 degrees above normal for locations along and east of Interstate 35 and around 1 degree above normal across the Hill Country.  Rainfall averaged close to an inch below normal across most of Central Texas and between 2 and 3 inches below normal across the coastal plains.  Interestingly, totals averaged near to slightly above-normal across the Hill Country.

January Rainfall Departure from Normal

Data courtesy National Weather Service River Forecast Center

In Austin, Camp Mabry recorded an average temperature of 53.1 degrees, which was 2.6 degrees above normal.  January 2021 ties with 4 other Januarys for the 27th warmest January on record.  Rainfall totaled 1.63 inches, which was 0.59 inches below normal.  January 2021 ranks as the 61st driest January on record.

Have a good week.