National Hurricane Center forecasters continue to closely monitor an area of low pressure located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This system is producing disorganized clouds, rain showers, and thunderstorms over the Gulf. The system is forecast to move slowly westward or west-southwestward and approach the middle or lower coast of Texas late Wednesday or Thursday. According to the Hurricane Center, slow development of the low will be possible, and it could become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before it moves inland. The National Hurricane Center has now raised the probability for development up to 40 percent over the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, this system will have the potential to cause heavy rain along portions of the Texas coast later this week.
Most of today’s computer-forecast solutions call for the low pressure system to move inland somewhere along the lower Texas coast during the day on Thursday, with the system then lifting north-northeast over the middle Texas coast and up across the Brazos Valley North Texas late Thursday into Friday. Forecasts continue to show the best chances for rain to be along and to the east of the low center.
For the area between La Grange and Matagorda, this will translate into a 40 percent chance for rain and thunderstorms Wednesday, and a 50-60 percent chance for rain and thunderstorms Thursday through Friday afternoon.
For the Hill Country region, generally dry weather is forecast Wednesday and Thursday, followed by a 20 percent chance for rain showers and thunderstorms Friday.
For the Austin and Central Texas region, generally dry weather is forecast Wednesday, with a 20 percent chance for scattered showers Thursday and a 30 percent chance for rain showers and thunderstorms Friday.
Rain amounts between this afternoon and Friday afternoon are forecast to average less than a quarter inch across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and between 1 and 3 inches across the middle Texas coast.
NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Tuesday through 7 pm Sunday:
A generally sunny, dry and hot weather pattern is forecast this weekend.